Tuesday, May 4, 2010

Buy IHSG 2.960 target 3.040, at the end of Correction c/2 in 5/5 impulse 2.956 low intraday (14. 30 WIB)

Closed hold buy 2.965 target 3.000 at end of 1st session at 2.994 (correction c).
2 Wave Scenario: Target Final Wave 5: 3.071???











Prognosis: Final Wave 5: 3.073???

Update Daily Investment News

Telkom Indonesia Shares May Extend Gains: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia, the nation’s biggest phone company, may extend the gains in the past three days as an uptrend emerged on its Chaikin Oscillator graphs and trading volume jumped.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aKiTcOp5bohU

Indonesia May Hold Rates as Rupiah Tackles Inflation (Update1)
Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s central bank may keep its benchmark interest rate at a record low this week as a strengthening currency and rising food supplies keep inflation at “moderate” levels.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=avDivOYhmIf8

PT Unilever Indonesia, the country’s largest maker of detergent, jumped 12 percent after JPMorgan Chase & Co. raised the stock’s rating to “neutral” from “underweight.”

State Street ’Underweight’ China, Brazil Stocks on Valuations
(Bloomberg) -- State Street Global Advisors has an “underweight” position on the largest emerging markets including China and Brazil on concern shares are expensive relative to smaller developing nations as economic growth slows.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2F8mMV07q2U

S&P to Hit 1350 in 12 Months: Equity Strategist
Stocks advanced Monday after some positive economic reports. How much longer will the rally last? Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist at Federated Investors, and Scott Wren, senior equity strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors, shared their insights.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36913856

Oil Would Be Fairly Valued at $60: Oppenheimer's Fadel Gheit
The massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has negatively impacted the shares of the companies involved. Will it have a direct effect on crude oil prices? Jason Gammel, managing director of research at Macquarie, and Fadel Gheit, managing director and senior analyst at Oppenheimer, offered CNBC their insights.  (Scroll down for their stock picks and pans.)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36918577

Halftime: Market Hits Trifecta, How Should You Bet?
Three separate catalysts triggered a strong rally on Monday sending the Dow [.DJIA  11151.83    143.22  (+1.3%)   ] higher by triple digits.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36916450

Sell in May? Here's a Better Way to Invest This Summer
Investors conditioned to backing out of the market as the summer looms might want to rethink their positions after what happened in 2009.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36872772

India Stocks May Fall 15% on Inflation, Fund Flows, Birla Says
(Bloomberg) -- Indian stocks may fall by as much as 15 percent over the next three months amid accelerating inflation and the possibility of foreign investors withdrawing funds, Birla Sun Life Insurance Co. said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=arlcX5eKfkE0

Nickel Peaking as China Prefers Pig Iron to Top Metal (Update1)
(Bloomberg) -- Nickel, this year’s best-performing commodity, is poised to decline as world supplies climb at the fastest pace in a decade and China’s search for lower-cost alternatives slows demand growth.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVa5GZbTUeO4

Palm Oil Futures Decline on Speculation Output Is Rebounding
(Bloomberg) -- Palm oil fell on speculation that output from Malaysia, the world’s second-largest producer, is rising as trees recover from seasonal stress, boosting supply and stockpiles even as export demand may be weakening.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDOkp8OjwtAE

Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) terus menunjukkan keperkasaannya. Hingga sesi pertama berakhir, Selasa (4/5), indeks masih melaju 1,01% ke level 2.990,75%. Angka tersebut merupakan rekor baru indeks meskipun pada sesi awal perdagangan indeks sempat menyentuh level tertingginya di 2.996,4. Perdagangan hari ini mendapat bahan bakar dari kenaikan harga saham PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR) yang melejit 11,76% menjadi Rp 16.150, harga tertinggi dalam 6 bulan terakhir. Lalu, saham PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia tbk (BBRI) naik 1,69% menjadi Rp 9.050, PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) naik 0,97% menjadi Rp 46.850, PT Bank Danamon yang naik 2,63% menjadi Rp 5.850, dan PT Semen Gresik Tbk (SMGR) naik 2,42% menjadi Rp 8.450.Sementara itu, di jajaran saham-saham pemberat indeks terdapat saham PT Smart Tbk (SMAR) yang rontok 4,09% menjadi Rp 4.100 dan PT International Nickel Tbk (INCO) turun 1% menjadi Rp 4.950. Kemudian, saham sejuta umat PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) rontok 2,08% menjadi Rp 2.350, PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSDE) longsor 4,76% menjadi Rp 800, dan PT Bank International Indonesia Tbk (BNII) yang turun 0,015 menjadi Rp 300.Total nilai transaksi saham siang ini mencapai Rp 1,41 triliun dengan volume saham yang diperdagangkan mencapai 1,97 miliar saham.Di Asia, indeks Strait Times siang ini melemah 0,96% ke level 2.916 dan indeks Hang Seng menguat 0,09% ke level 20.830,20. Bursa Jepang masih libur perayaan Golden Week.

Bank Capital Bantah Lepas Saham ke Bank Mega
PT Bank Capital Indonesia Tbk (BACA) membantah akan melepas sahamnya ke Bank Mega seharga Rp100-150 per saham.

Duta Graha Bidik Kontrak Baru Rp2 Triliun di 2010
PT Duta Graha Tbk (DGIK) membidik kontrak baru sepanjang 2010 mencapai Rp2 triliun dengan order book mencapai Rp3,6 triliun.

LPIN Raup Laba Bersih Rp4,05 Miliar di Q1-2010
PT Multi Prima Sejahtera Tbk (LPIN) mencatatkan laba bersih Rp4,049 miliar pada kuartal pertama 2010.

PT Eatertainment International Tbk (SMMT) mencatatkan kenaikan laba bersih sebesar 7.350% menjadi Rp4,474 miliar pada kuartal pertama 2010 dibandingkan periode sama sebelumnya Rp64,502 juta.

PT Kokoh Inti Arebama Tbk (KOIN) mencatatkan penurunan laba bersih sebesar 9,6% pada kuartal I-2010 menjadi Rp1,13 miliar pada kuartal serupa 2009.

HSBC Fund Beli Saham Multipolar
HSBC-Fund Services Clients A/C 500 telah membeli saham PT Multipolar Tbk (MLPL) sebesar 112.924.000 lembar saham.

MPPA Revisi Dividen Interim Jadi Rp180 per Saham
PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk (MPPA) merivisi dividen interm sebesar Rp180 per saham dari 210 per saham yang akan dibagikan pada 12 Mei 2010.

Langkah PT Trias Sentosa Tbk (TRST) mengakuisisi Tianjin Sunshine Palstics, Tingkok, tahun 2007, telah menjadikan perseroan "A Leader in Packaging Material Supplier in Asia". Kinerja keuangan 1Q10 dikabarkan melnjka sngat signifikan. Sahamnya masih murah dengan PER 4,78 kali dan PBV 0,6 kali, serta akan diangkat ke level Rp375-400. Perseroan juga dikabarkan membagi tahun 2009 sebesar Rp15/saham.

Saham PT Bank Agroniaga (AGRO) berpotensi menuju Rp200 per lembarnya. Hal ini seiring rencana akuisisi oleh PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI).

Isu yang beredar menyebutkan, saham PT Kertas Basuki Rachmat Indonesia Tbk (KBRI) akan diburu investor asing dan lokal.

    * BHIT: Raih Laba Bersih Rp 152,6 M
    * SMGR: Pemerintah beli 1,25% saham Semen Gresik
    * TRIO: Pendapatan Meningkat 19%
    * KIAS: Omzet KIAS melonjak 72%
    * MNCN: Buyback 15 Juta Saham
    * BBNI: Green Shoe Dilepas Rp2.500 Per Saham
    * ANTM: BUMN Minta Krakatau-Antam Tangani Inalum
    * BSDE: BSD siapkan akuisisi lahan Rp2 triliun
    * GJTL: Gajah Tunggal incar penjualan naik 25%
    * AGRO: Divestasi Bank Agro Tuntas

  ANTM-Hangzhou Segera Teken Perjanjian Kerjasama
Bulan ini, ANTM juga bakal mengumumkan pemenang tender ulang proyek SGA yang memiliki nilai investasi Rp 400 miliar.

  91,73% Pemegang Obligasi LPKR Setujui Konversi
Lippo Karawaci berharap tawaran konversi obligasi dan penggantian biaya bagi pemegang obligasinya bisa tuntas pada 10 Mei mendatang.

  Media Nusantara Citra Buyback 15 Juta Saham
Total saham yang dibeli kembali oleh MNCN mencapai 15 juta saham senilai Rp 6,68 miliar.

Sumber: Detikfinance.com, inilah.com, kontan

Daily Forex Technicals |   Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3180, 1.3159, 1.3131 and 1.3084(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3076, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3053. Break of the latter would result in 1.3028. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3011. Continuation will give 1.2988.
Today's resistance: - 1.3262, 1.3288 and 1.3324 (main). Break would give 1.3341, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3368. Break of the latter would result in 1.3393. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3413. Continuation will give 1.3440 and 1.3465.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 94.05, 93.54, 93.12 and 92.70(main). Break would bring 92.46, where correction is possible. Then 92.14, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 91.63. If a strong impulse, we would see 91.46. Continuation would give 91.14 and 90.91.
Today's resistance: - 95.16 and 95.41(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 95.74, where also a correction may be. Then 95.91. If a strong impulse, we would see 96.30. Continuation will give 96.52.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 11064.36, 10991.30, 10957.50 and 10923.80(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 10911.40, where correction also can be. Then follows 10888.12. Be there a strong impulse, we shall see 10853.22. Continuation will bring 10826.40 and 10807.26.
Today's resistance: - 11187.11 and 11208.72(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 11240.76, where a correction may happen. Then follows 11265.33, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 11290.37. Continuation would bring 11323.12 and 11342.86.

Monday, May 3, 2010

Rekomendasi Top 38 Stocks: Welcome JCI 3000+ This Week?

IHSG masih dalam jalur extend bullish dan ditutup di atas 2.954, buying power yg moderat yang sempat kendor, dapat batasi potensi penurunan, didukung oleh final impulse wave v/5 dalam subwave koreksi c/iv yg kemungkinan telah berakhir di 2950 low 03/05,indeks masih menunjukkan pola wash & rinse bullish dan ascending triangle, (sesuai dengan E.W DJIA di 5/5), berpeluang breakout resist  2954 untuk target 2985/3042. Trend berbalik bearish jika indeks ditutup dibawah 2926 dapat picu aksi profit lebih lanjut. Buy bhit, antm, medc, bbca, smgr, ggrm, smcb, pgas, dild, gjtl, bwpt. Hold Buy doid, raja, lsip, inco, asii, ptba, tmpi, asri, bumi, itmg, ggrm, idkm, bksl, dgik, kija, elsa, dild, auto, admf, myor, hexa, davo, cpro, bmtr, medc, adro, bmri, agro, bbtn, indf.closed Buy break 2.928; profit +40point. Buy 2927-2930 & 2965 target 3.000 stop 20p.  Risk 3.5%, Reward >10%. Track Record IHSG: 17 Recommendations (15 profits: 1 break even: 1 loss) = (+20p+45p+73p+53+60p+45p+63p+0p+27p+50p-20p+13p+40p+45p+40p).P = Point. Disclaimer on.  

Update Daily Investment News

Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) mencatat inflasi bulan April 2010 mencapai 0,15%. Dengan begitu besaran inflasi kumulatif Januari-April 2010 adalah sebesar 1,15%, sementara inflasi year on year pada Februari 2010 adalah 3,91%.

Nilai kapitalisasi pasar seluruh saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) telah menembus angka Rp 2.423 triliun pada perdagangan akhir pekan kemarin, naik 20% dari posisi akhir tahun lalu sebesar Rp 2.019 triliun.

IHSG Sesi I Ditutup Menguat 4,53 Poin
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) pada perdagangan sesi I Senin (3/5) ditutup menguat 4,53 poin (0,15%) ke level 2.975,78.

Rupiah Pagi Dibuka Melemah 20 Poin
Pada pembukaan perdagangan Senin (3/5) Rupiah dibuka di kisaran 9.030 atau melemah 20 poin dibandingkan penutupan pekan lalu di kisaran 9.010.

JSPT Bagi Dividen Rp6 Per Saham
PT Jakarta Setiabudi Internasional Tbk (JSPT) berencana membagikan dividen tahun buku 2009 sebesar Rp13,9 miliar atau Rp6 per lembar saham.

DGIK Incar Aset Tambang Sinar Mas?
PT Duta Graha Indah (DGIK) saat ini sedang tertarik membeli aset pertambangan aset tambang Sinar Mas, yakni PT Borneo Indobara.

Laba Bersih BUMA di Bawah Estimasi Pasar
Anak usaha PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk, BUMA pada kuartal I-2010 membukukan penurunan pendapatan bersih sebesar 9,2% YoY menjadi Rp1,16 triliun.

PT Bhakti Investama Tbk (BHIT) berhasil meraup laba bersih Rp152,59 miliar pada kuartal I-2010 dibanding periode serupa 2009 yang rugi Rp123,96 miliar.

PT Bakrie Sumatera Plantations Tbk (UNSP) melalui anak usahanya PT Grahadura Leidongprima telah mengakuisisi 100% saham PT Citalaras Cipta Indonesia.

Laba Bersih Gudang Garam Naik 18,87% di Q1-2010
PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM) membukukan laba bersih naik 18,87% dari Rp780,488 miliar pada kuartal pertama 2009 menjadi Rp927,788 miliar pada kuartal pertama 2010.

INAI Raup Laba Bersih Rp2,94 Miliar di Q1-2010
PT Indal Aluminium Industry Tbk (INAI) berhasil mencatatkan laba bersih sebesar Rp2,94 miliar pada kuartal I-2010.

    * PGAS: Kuartal I, Peningkatan Penjualan Gas 17%
    * ELSA: Pendapatan Tembus Rp1 Triliun
    * TINS: Kenaikan Laba Bersih Paling Tinggi
    * INDY: Laba Bersih 1Q Sebesar Rp 291,74 Miliar VS Rp 451,37 Miliar
    * DGIK: Raih Kontrak US$20 Juta
    * BRPT: Laba Melonjak 233%
    * VRNA: Laba Bersih Melonjak
    * BTPN: Revisi Target Kredit
    * KARK: Dayaindo Siap Rights Issue Juni 2010
    * SMSM: Emisi Bond Rp300 M
    * BBRI: 2010, BRI Perkirakan Laba Bersih Tumbuh 20%

Pengendali PT Bank Capital Indonesia Tbk (BACA) dikabarkan akan melepas sahamnya ke Bank Mega Tbk (MEGA) pada kisaran harga Rp100-150 per saham.

Sebanyak 15 emiten BUMN yang telah merilis laporan keuangan triwulan I-2010 menunjukkan kinerja memukau. Kenaikan laba bersih mencapai 32,02% menjadi Rp 11,846 triliun.

PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA) membukukan penurunan laba bersih konsolidasi sekitar 74,71% menjadi US$1,959 juta di triwulan 1-2010, dibandingkan triwulan yang sama 2009 sekitar US$7,749 juta.

Kabar di pasar menyebutkan ada beberapa trader yang mengingatkan investor agar mencermati pergerakan saham PT Tunas Ridean Tbk (TURI). Trader tersebut akan mengangkat harga saham TURI menuju level Rp3.000

Sekawan Inti Cetak Untung Rp903,11 Miliar di Q1-2010
Sekawan Inti Pratama Tbk berhasil mencetak laba bersih sekitar Rp903,11 miliar di triwulan 1-2010, dibandingkan triwulan yang sama 2009 lalu merugi Rp129,726 miliar.

UNSP Laba Rp 64 Miliar Berkat Kenaikan Penjualan & Kurs
Meski laba bersih UNSP meningkat pesat, beban usahanya ikut membengkak.

Kuartal I-2010, Laba Bersih MAPI Naik 55,49%
Kontribusi terbesar bagi pendapatan MAPI disumbangkan oleh penjualan eceran dan grosir senilai Rp 883,42 miliar.

Sumber: Detikfinance.com, inilah.com, kontan.

Daily Forex Technicals |   Written by India Forex
The EURUSD is currently trading at 1.3226 levels after touching a low of 1.3110 levels last week. Near term importers cover near 1.3000 –1.3200 levels. Bearish below 1.3650 levels and 1.30 looks most likely. (EURUSD - 1.3226).
GBPUSD is currently trading at 1.5249 levels. Near term imports are already covered for clients (refer our previous reports) around 67- 68 levels. The bias is bearish further down. Exporters for May can cover atleast 50—60% at 1.54-1.55 levels i.e 68.30-68.60 levels. Breaking of 1.5300 levels would push the pair to 1.5150 levels. Weekly charts are showing downward correction. Bearish below 1.5600 levels. (GBPUSD 1.5249).
USDJPY is currently trading 93.94 levels. Yen is taking strong resistance near 94.30 breaking which we could target 97-98 levels. Weekly close above 92 levels has increased chances for a bearish move for the yen currency. Importers hold for medium term covers. (USDJPY- 93.94). Long Term (3-6 months) Target 98 and higher. WE JUST NEED A CONSISTENT BREAK OF 94.30 TO MAKE THIS HAPPEN.
AUDUSD is currently trading at 0.9248 levels. Importers cover on dips. Exporters in Aud may start booking from 0.9350 onwards partially. Since the Australian currency is overall hawkish and Gold is holding above $1135 dollars we would stay away from shorts. Buying on dips is recommended. (AUDUSD - 0.9248). Bullish.
Gold is currently trading at $1177 levels and its bias is clearly on the upside. Buy on dips remains is the strategy. (Gold- $1177) Bullish.
The dollar index is currently trading at 82.23 levels. Strong support comes near 80 levels (21 days Weekly EMA) Dollar index above 80 levels. (Dollar Index- 82.23) Bullish

Daily Forex Technicals |   Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.3180, 1.3159, 1.3131 and 1.3084(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3076, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3053. Break of the latter would result in 1.3028. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3011. Continuation will give 1.2988.
Today's resistance: - 1.3262, 1.3288 and 1.3324 (main). Break would give 1.3341, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3368. Break of the latter would result in 1.3393. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3413. Continuation will give 1.3440 and 1.3465.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 93.54, 93.12 and 92.70(main). Break would bring 92.46, where correction is possible. Then 92.14, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 91.63. If a strong impulse, we would see 91.46. Continuation would give 91.14 and 90.91.
Today's resistance: - 94.57(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 94.72, where also a correction may be. Then 94.96. If a strong impulse, we would see 95.16. Continuation will give 95.41.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 10957.50 and 10923.80(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 10911.40, where correction also can be. Then follows 10888.12. Be there a strong impulse, we shall see 10853.22. Continuation will bring 10826.40 and 10807.26.
Today's resistance: - 11070.23, 11137.40, 11187.11 and 11208.72(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 11240.76, where a correction may happen. Then follows 11265.33, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 11290.37. Continuation would bring 11323.12 and 11342.86.

Sell in May, Go Away? Yes, Says Senior Analyst
Advocating the old Wall Street saying, "sell in May and then go away," a analyst said there are "dark clouds ahead" in the markets.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36873794

Week Ahead: Stocks May Struggle to Stay on a Positive Wave
The challenge for markets in the week ahead will be whether to ride a wave of better economic and earnings news or give in to a growing list of worries.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36881040

Oil May Gain This Week, Traders Monitor Gulf of Mexico Oil
Benchmark oil prices may gain this week despite pressure from the escalating sovereign debt crisis in the Eurozone, which may prompt investors to flee risk assets including commodities and find a refuge instead in the relative safety of the U.S. dollar.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36909165

Buy Gold to Defend Against Greece?
Cramer doesn’t think that Europe’s debt woes are a reason to sell North American stocks, but the ailing countries of Greece, Spain and Portugal may warrant a look at the gold miners.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36849841

China May ‘Crash’ in Next 9 to 12 Months, Faber Says (Update3)
(Bloomberg) -- Investor Marc Faber said China’s economy will slow and possibly “crash” within a year as declines in stock and commodity prices signal the nation’s property bubble is set to burst.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aMbfBKW.uKn4

Cocoa Prices to Gain This Week, Advance Toward $3,400, ANZ Says
Bloomberg) -- Cocoa prices in New York, at a three- month high, may rally toward $3,400 a metric ton this week, according to Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=art_VOm4vjuc

Sunday, May 2, 2010

Rekomendasi Top 28 Stocks: Welcome JCI 3000+ Next Week?

IHSG telah breakout trendline resist 2924 dan ditutup di atas 2.954, dengan buying power yg moderat yang cukup kuat alasan bahwa koreksi abc dalam 2/5) telah berakhir, meski indeks masih menunjukkan pola wash & rinse bullish dan ascending triangle, (sesuai dengan E.W DJIA di 5/5), berpeluang breakout resist  2926, untuk target 2987/3042. Trend berbalik bearish jika indeks ditutup dibawah 2916. dapat picu aksi profit lebih lanjut. Buy on weakness sesi 1: doid, raja, lsip, inco, asii, ptba, tmpi, asri, bumi, itmg, ggrm, idkm, bksl, dgik, kija, elsa, dild, auto, admf, myor, hexa, davo, cpro, bmtr, medc, adro, bmri, agro, bbtn, indf.  Closed Hold Buy break 2.928 target 2.987 stop 2968, buy 2.927-2930 target 2.986 stop dibwh 2916.  Risk 3.5%, Reward >10%. Track Record IHSG: 16 Recommendations (15 profits: 1 loss) = (+20p+45p+73p+53+60p+45p+63p+0p+27p+50p-20p+13p+40p+45p). P = Point. Disclaimer on.  







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