Elliot Wave: Euro-dollar & Pound-Dollar

Euro-dollar 4-Hr

Poundsterling-dollar: Daily

Update Daily Investment News

Terseret Regional, Sesi I IHSG Turun 65,12 Poin
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) sesi I pada perdagangan Awnin (17/5) ditutup turun 65,12 poin (2,28%) ke level 2.793,27 karena terimbas bursa regional yang negatif. Sementara nilai tukar rupiah dibuka stagnan di level 9.110 per dolar AS, sama dengan posisi penutupan akhir pekan kemarin
Sentul City Tambah Kepemilikan di Bukit Jonggol Asri
PT Sentul City Tbk (BKSL) akan menggunakan dana dari pelaksanaan Waran Seri I sebesar Rp350,59 miliar untuk meningkatkan penyertaan saham di PT Bukit Jonggol Asri (BJA).
PT Elnusa Tbk (ELSA) melepas 25$ sahamnya di Elnusa Tristar Ramba Limited (ETRL) ke Eurorich Group Limited.
Rencana rights issue Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) saat ini sedang dibahas di Komite privatisasi, di mana menurut Menneg BUMN akan terealisasi pada tahun ini.

PT Dayaindo Resources International Tbk (KARK) akan melakukan rights issue dengan HMETD maksimum 18,904 miliar saham dengan harga pelaksanaan Rp100 senilai Rp1,89 triliun.

PT Nippon Indosari Corporindo (Sari Roti) akan melakukan penawaran umum perdana maksimum 151,8 juta saham biasa atas nama atau 15% dari modal disetor penuh setelah IPO.

Akuisisi 96,7% Saham AGRO, 'Buy' BBRI
Menneg BUMN mengatakan PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) akan mengakuisisi hingga 96,7% saham Bank Agroniaga (AGRO).

Esia-Flexi Bersinergi, 'Hold' Saham BTEL
PT Bakrie Telecom Tbk (BTEL) dan Flexi, unit bisnis PT Telkom (TLKM) dikabarkan akan segera membentuk sinergi.
Anak Perusahaan DSSA Tambah Saham Senilai Rp12 M
Anak Perusahaan PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA) yaitu PT Kuansing Inti Makmur telah melakukan penyertaan pada 99% saham PT Karya Cemerlang Persada (KCP).

Bursa Asia Dibuka Negatif
Pasar saham Asia jatuh pada awal perdagangan Senin (17/5). Kekhawatiran pasar atas utang di Eropa menjadi katalisnya.
BBNI: Jadwal Pembagian Dividen
Berikut ini adalah jadwal pembagian dividen PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI) untuk tahun buku 2009:
Cum dividen di pasar reguler dan negosiasi : 8 Juni 2010
Ex dividen di pasar reguler dan negosiasi : 9 Juni 2010
Cum dividen di pasar tunai : 11 Juni 2010
Ex dividen di pasar tunai : 14 Juni 2010
Recording date : 11 Juni 2010
Payment date : 25 Juni 2010.

BMRI: Dividen Bank Mandiri 35%
BBNI: Jadwal Pembagian Dividen
BBCA: Catat Pemegang Kartu Kredit Dekati 2,1 Juta
BNGA: CIMB Tambah Saham di CIMB Niaga
TLKM: Esia-Flexi Segera Bersinergi
MPPA: Penjualan 1Q10 Naik Sebesar 13,3% Jadi Rp 3,3 Triliun
PTPP: Siapkan Dana Rp1,2 Triliun
JRPT: Jaya Property Segera Tuntaskan Akuisisi
MLPL: Siap Lunasi Utang
LPLI: Laba Bersih Mencapai Rp115,9 Triliun
MAYA: Rights Issue Rp500 M
INDY: Raih Kontrak US$1,5 Miliar
AQUA: Mesti Siapkan Dana Tender Offer Rp334,5 Miliar
ELTY: Berencana akuisisi BKSL.

Saham PT Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI) berpeluang menembus level Rp200-225 untuk jangka pendek. Potensi penguatan saham ASRI tersebut terkait kabar perseroan yang akan menambah asetnya diproperti dengan mengakusisi sejumlah perusahaan properti yang bergerak di bidang perkantoran dan perhotelan. Konon, perseroan sudah menggandeng mitra strategis untuk mendukung terealisasinya akuisisi tersebut.

Para bandar disebut-sebut bakal memburu saham PT Barito Pacific Tbk (BRPT) dalam waktu dekat terkait kabar perseroan yang ingin fokus pada bisnis pengembangan sumber daya alam. Setelah memiliki 11,21% saham PT Gozco Plantations Tbk (GZCO), perseroan dikabarkan bakal meningkatkan kepemilikan saham pada perusahaan perkebunan tersebut. Perseroan juga disebut-sebut ingin menambah kepemilikan saham PT Star Energy yang bergerak di sektor energi.

Hari ini (17/5), cum dividen BFI Finance Indonesia Tbk (BFIN) Rp 78 per saham Ex date (18 Mei 2010) PT Petrosea Tbk (PTRO) akan membagikan dividen sebesar Rp 143 per lembar saham untuk tahun buku 2009, atau setara dengan 100% dari laba bersih perseroan. Laba bersih perseroan tahun lalu sebesar US$ 1,59 juta.

Mata uang tunggal euro jatuh ke titik terendahnya sejak Oktober 2008. Terus berlanjutnya kekhawatiran investor seputar krisis utang di Uni Eropa membuat euro terus tertekan pada awal perdagangan pekan ini. Pada perdagangan Senin (17/5/2010) di Tokyo, euro jatuh ke 1,2236 dolar, dibandingkan posisi penutupan di New York akhir pekan lalu di 1,2358 dolar. Namun euro selanjutnya pulih ke posisi 1,2353 dolar.

Daily Forex Technicals

Written by FXtechtrade

EUR/USD

Today's support: - 1.2206, 1.2178 and 1.2150(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.2124, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.2103. Break of the latter would result in 1.2080. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.2048. Continuation will give 1.2026.

Today's resistance: - 1.2424, 1.2476 and 1.2512(main). Break would give 1.2549, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.2573. Break of the latter would result in 1.2600. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.2655. Continuation will give 1.2676.

USD/JPY

Today's support: - 91.58(main). Break would bring 91.34, where correction is possible. Then 91.01, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 90.79. If a strong impulse, we would see 90.37. Continuation would give 90.05.

Today's resistance: - 92.70, 93.04, 93.17 and 93.66(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 94.15, where also a correction may be. Then 94.40. If a strong impulse, we would see 94.68. Continuation will give 95.11.

DOW JONES INDEX

Today's support: - 10530.17(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 10479.30, where correction also can be. Then follows 10445.63. Be there a strong impulse, we shall see 10429.72. Continuation will bring 10378.13.

Today's resistance: - 10711.80, 10734.50 and 10769.26(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 10804.63, where a correction may happen. Then follows 10832.65, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 10866.70. Continuation would bring 10911.50 and 10932.37.

Daily Forex Technicals Written by ecPulse.com
EUR0
The pair surpassed the awaited key targets and managed to achieve more negative pressure that will breach support for the main descending channel at 1.2330. This level will meet with the recorded bottom at the end of October 2008; thus, we expected the pair to witness a more bearish short term direction. Some fluctuation will be witnessed to retest the breached support level before heading towards upcoming targets that are around 1.2150 then 1.2000. It is vital that closing is below 1.2330 to achieve mentioned targets.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2000 and the key resistance at 1.2500.
The short term trend is to the downside as far as 1.3770 remains intact with targets at 1.1700.
Support: 1.2235, 1.2190, 1.2160, 1.2125, 1.2060
Resistance: 1.2330, 1.2385, 1.2440, 1.2500, 1.2575
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair from 1.2330 targeting 1.2150 and stop loss above 1.2500, might be appropriate.
GBP
The pair continued moving to the downside to touch support for the main descending channel shown above at 1.4250. Momentum indicators are showing positive signs that may push for some minor bullish correction; however, in overall it is expected to remain bearish, while targets start at 1.4100 then 1.4000. We recommend observing today's trading as we await signs that will insure the expected direction that will prevail if 1.4250 is breached.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4000 and the key resistance at 1.4700.
The short term trend is to the downside as far as 1.5590 remains intact with targets at 1.4000.
Support: 1.4335, 1.4250, 1.4195, 1.4125, 1.4035
Resistance: 1.4395, 1.4455, 1.4525, 1.4590, 1.4650
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is to observe trading and await more confirmation signs for the pair’s direction, might be appropriate.

JPY
The pair continues to move according to our previous reports after insuring a breach of pivotal support that has currently turned into resistance at 92.20, where more bearish movement is expected for this week. Keep in mind that that support is at 91.10, which could impede the pair's attempt to bearishly move. Momentum indicators are showing negative signs that support these expectations of a bearish trend as key targets are at 90.20 then 89.50. It is vital that 93.85 remain intact to insure achieving expectations.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 89.50 and the key resistance at 93.85.
The short term trend is to the downside as far as 101.65 remains intact with targets at 82.60
Support: 91.80, 91.10, 90.65, 90.20, 89.5
Resistance: 92.20, 92.65, 93.10, 93.85, 94.80
Recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above our opinion is selling the pair from 92.20 target 90.20 and stop loss above 93.85, might be appropriate.

Rekomendasi & Strategy Saham & IHSG 17-05

IHSG diperkirakan masih berpeluang terkoreksi pada awal pekan ini  karena minimnya sentimen positif dari dalam negeri dan kuatnya sentimen dari eksternal: berkelanjutan krisis di Yunani yang mendorong isu euro-split, potensi the next victim adalah Inggris dari membengkaknya defisit anggaran dan meningkatnya pengangguran (meski baru mendapatkan pemerintahan baru), dapat memperburuk kondisi keuangan di Dubai (pendanaan terbesar untuk Dubai berasal dari bank-bank Eropa),Yunani akan mengambil sangsi terhadap bank-bank AS, merebaknya penyelidikan terhadap 6 bank terbesar di AS mengenai mortgage debt, penurunan harga komoditi global (Indeks CRB 258.55; -2.0%) berkat strong dolar AS (Indeks USD capai tertinggi 86.29; +1.37%) hingga perkiraan lemahnya daya beli konsumen di AS (earning retailer pekan ini). Meski sejumlah data ekonomi dari AS (FOMC Minutes, Jobless Claims, Housing), penantian terhadap pengumuman menteri keuangan RI yang baru, krisis politik di Thailand & Yunani dapat mendorong inflow ke pasar modal RI, kuatnya earning di saham RI & AS (77% earnings di S&P 500 lebih baik dari perkiraan & earning Q1 2010 naik 56.6%), dapat menahan dan membatasi potensial penurunan IHSG di pekan ini, sebelum kunjungan Obama di bulan Juni.

Watch out: Krisis Yunani (+ downgrade Portugal, Spanyol, Irlandia dan UK) > Revaluasi China (+PBOC Rate Hike) > kemelut bank AS (Kasus Goldman Sachs & 5 bank lainnya) > terorisme global > World Cup 2010 Afsel.

IHSG hari ini harus ditutup diatas 2.850 (fibo 50% 2.996-2705) untuk mempertahankan trend bullish jangka pendek dalam pola broadening tops dan masih diatas 100 & 200 day MA, Jika gagal berpeluang menuju support 2.834/2.795/2.768. Resist di 2.870/2.885. Weekly chart menunjukkan pola candle hanging man, mendorong peluang penurunan dan toppish. Jika level support 2.795 ditembus, IHSG berpeluang membentuk pola EW correction impulse C (1-5) dengan target 2.690/2.650.   
Trading Buy on weakness: B7; agro, bbri, bbni, pgas, medc, bbri, tlkm, smra, bksl, asii, unvr, bhit, mncn, ggrm, tmpi, dild, ctra, bsde, sgro, untr, klbf. Risk 3.5%, Reward >10%. Sell 2.885 target 2.780 stop 30p, sell breakout 2.842 target 2.780 stop 30p. Sell breakout 2.765 target 2.690 stop 20p. Buy 2.690 target 2.790 stop 30p. 
Track Record IHSG: 27 Recommendations (21 profits: 2 break even: 4 loss) = (+20p+45p+73p+53+60p+45p+63p+0p+27p+50p-20p+13p+40p+45p+40p+29p-30p-154p-75p+80p+26p+0p+28p+80p). Total : 847 point - 259 point = Net +588 points = Average 21.77 point.
ADRO: Rounding TOP, trend bearish (MACD), Bear Flag, Trading Buy 1.950 target 2.025/2.050, stop 1.880 

BUMI: Head & Shoulder, neckline di 2.250, trend bearish, Trading buy 2.425 target 2.450/2.475, stop loss 2.375. 

TLKM:

EW: IHSG

Update Daily Investment News

Weekahead: Euro-Zone Troubles May Keep Stocks on Edge
Stocks could face more volatility next week as growing doubts about whether Europe can solve its deepening debt crisis are likely to take center stage again.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37176241

Euro Poised to Erase Half of 7-Year Rally: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The euro’s longest series of weekly declines in three months versus the dollar signals the 16-nation currency may erase half of the seven-year rally that took it to a record, according to BNP Paribas SA.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=azgeyYoObBq0

Home Starts, Leading Index Probably Rose: U.S. Economy Preview
(Bloomberg) -- Home construction probably picked up in April, the growth outlook improved and the cost of living was little changed, showing the U.S. economy is expanding without stoking inflation, economists said before reports this week.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=atHH5lCArKn0&pos=1

Prep Your Portfolio For Next Week: Strategists
Should you hold financials for the week ahead? Alan Valdes, vice president of DME Securities, and Peter Andersen, portfolio manager at Congress Asset Management, shared their best plays.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37150257

Halftime: 'Market Tell' Pros Use To Anticipate Weakness
A sea of red washed across Wall Street as the selling intensified on Friday with the S&P [.SPX  1135.68    -21.76  (-1.88%)   ] and Nasdaq [.NCOMP  2346.85    -47.51  (-1.98%)   ] sharply lower and the Dow [.DJIA  10620.16    -162.79  (-1.51%)   ] tumbling by triple digits.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37150759

One Market Relationship Is My 'Biggest Concern': Art Hogan
Stocks slid on Friday amid a fresh round of worries about the U.S. economic recovery. How should investors prepare their portfolios and what should they watch for? Art Hogan, global equity product director at Jefferies, shared his insights.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37149052

China Revaluation Would Hurt US: World Bank's Lin
The chief economist for the World Bank said on Saturday that if China were to revalue its currency it would actually hurt rather than help the U.S. economy.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37169755

Weekly Fundamental Outlook for Energies and Metals - Cushing

Written by Oil N' Gold
Apart from approving the 110B-euro loan to Greece, the EU and IMF also agreed on a package totaling 750B euro so as to contain sovereign crisis and to arrest the euro's freefall. To facilitate the rescue, ECB said it would 'conduct interventions in the euro area public and private debt securities markets to ensure depth and liquidity in those market segments which are dysfunctional'. A joint action by the ECB, FED, BOE, BOJ, SNB and BOC is also announced. The central banks re-establish temporary U.S. dollar liquidity swap facilities which are designed to help 'improve liquidity conditions in USD funding markets and to prevent the spread of strains to other markets and other financial centers'.
http://www.oilngold.com/ong-focus/insights/weekly-fundamental-outlook-for-energies-and-metals-cushing-stock-build-exacerbated-wti-slump-gold-reached-new-highs-2010051512700/

Gold Weekly Technical Outlook Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's up trend extended further last week and reached new record high of 1249.7 before retreating mildly on profit taking. With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, initial bias is neutral this week and some consolidations might be seen first. However, downside is expected to be contained above 1170 resistance turned support and bring rally resumption. ABove 1249.7 will target 1300 psychological level next. In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1227.5 high indicates that rise from 931.3 has resumed. Such rise is treated as part of the long term up trend and should now target 100% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340 next. On the downside, break of 1170 support turned resistance is needed to be the first sign of topping. Otherwise, outlook will remain bullish. In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 1044.5 key support holds.

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's fall from 87.15 resumed after brief consolidations and dived to as low as 70.83 last week. Short term outlook will remain bearish as lon g as 78.51 resistance holds and we'd expect a test on key support zone of 68.59/69.50 next. On the upside, above 78.51 will indicate that a short term bottom is formed and bring stronger rebound, possibly for a retest on 87.15 high. In the bigger picture, as noted before, 33.20 is viewed as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27. Such rise might have completed at 87.15 already, ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Break of 69.50 support will break the series of higher low pattern from 33.2 and will be an important indication that the trend has reversed. In such case, we'll turn bearish on crude oil and expect the then down trend to target a new low below 33.2. In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 was strong, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.