Monday, June 14, 2010
Trading Strategy: ANTM/GGRM/INCO
ANTM: Trend Bearish. Trading Buy 1.920-1.950 target 2.025/2.125 stop loss di bawah 1.880.
GGRM: Trend bullish, Buy di area 33.750-34.000 target near 38.000 stop dibawah 32.700
INCO Trend bearish trading Buy 3.800-3.875 target 4.200, stop loss di bawah 3.650.
Laporan Saham IHSG 14-06
IHSG diperkirakan masih memiliki kecederungan menguat, setelah sentimen positif kembali muncul di tengah volume yang tipis pada Piala Dunia 2010, dimana sentimen dari data University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment bulan Juni tercatat lebih baik dari prediksi, meski Retail Sales AS bulan lalu anjlok 1.2%, menambah sejumlah bukti pemulihan ekonomi dunia setelah sebelumnya data Ekspor, FDI China, Ekspor Korea Selatan dan employment Australia menunjukkan kenaikan, serta global stock mendapatkan net inflow pada pekan lalu dan BEI mendapatkan inflow Rp 600 miliar pada pekan lalu, di tengah meredanya kekhawatiran terhadap krisis di Eropa, seharusnya masih menopang kinerja IHSG di awal pekan ini, meski ada kekhawatiran aksi profit-taking di hari-hari mendatang.
BNI Technical Analysis 14-06: http://www.ziddu.com/download/10280112/061410t.pdf.html
IHSG
Hold Sell 2.770 target 2.700 Closed = +0p. Hold Sell 2.800 & 2.825 target 2.700 stop diatas 2.850. Sell breakout 2.790 target 2.720 stop 30p. Buy breakout 2.850 target 2.910 stop 20p. Sell breakout 2.695 target 2.640 stop 30p.
Track Record IHSG (since end of March 2010) : 38 Recommendations (29 profits: 3 break even: 6 loss) = (+20p+45p+73p+53+60p+45p+63p+0p+27p+50p-20p+13p+40p+45p+40p+29p-30p-154p-75p+80p+26p+0p+28p+80p+62p+53p+20p+0p+70p+99p+135p-20p-30p+50p+60p+100p+0p). Total : Net +1296 points = Average 34.10 point.
BNI Technical Analysis 14-06: http://www.ziddu.com/download/10280112/061410t.pdf.html
IHSG
Hold Sell 2.770 target 2.700 Closed = +0p. Hold Sell 2.800 & 2.825 target 2.700 stop diatas 2.850. Sell breakout 2.790 target 2.720 stop 30p. Buy breakout 2.850 target 2.910 stop 20p. Sell breakout 2.695 target 2.640 stop 30p.
Track Record IHSG (since end of March 2010) : 38 Recommendations (29 profits: 3 break even: 6 loss) = (+20p+45p+73p+53+60p+45p+63p+0p+27p+50p-20p+13p+40p+45p+40p+29p-30p-154p-75p+80p+26p+0p+28p+80p+62p+53p+20p+0p+70p+99p+135p-20p-30p+50p+60p+100p+0p). Total : Net +1296 points = Average 34.10 point.
Sunday, June 13, 2010
Second Stocks Bear Market, The Right Path!
By: Steve_Betts
"Our government has kept us in a perpetual state of fear - kept us in a continuous stampede of patriotic fervor - with the cry of grave national emergency. Always, there has been some terrible evil at home, or some monstrous foreign power that was going to gobble us up if we did not blindly rally behind it." ---General Douglas MacArthur (1880-1964)
By Steve Betts
E-mail: analyst@stockmarketbarometer.net
Web site: www.stockmarketbarometer.net
Update Daily Investment News
Week Ahead: Choppy Market Will Try to Shrug Off Euro Worries
Stocks will navigate choppy waters in the week ahead, but could sail a bit more smoothly—barring any nasty, new surprises from Europe.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37649299
Production Probably Rose, Prices Fell: U.S. (Bloomberg) -- Factories kept churning out more goods last month, while prices and home construction fell, pointing to a manufacturing-led U.S. recovery that is not generating inflation, economists said before reports this week.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=afVs1JzRgfSE
Bearish Sentiment Indicates Good Time to Buy: Art Hogan
Stocks pared their losses Friday after a report that showed consumer sentiment came in better than expected. Art Hogan, director of global equity products at Jefferies, shared his market outlook.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37638028
Warning: Rough Earnings Ahead?
Companies are surprisingly quiet while analysts have begun slashing estimates aggressively heading into the end of the second quarter, a phenomenon that could mean we’re in for some surprises over the next week, and not the good kind either, investors said.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37643552
Schork Oil Outlook: $75 Crude Means Nothing
Spot Nymex crude oil closed above $75 for the first time in a month. Of course, the difference between these two milestones was… a month ago the market was entrenched in a violent sell-off, today we are in the midst of the rebound from that weakness.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37641859
US Economist Fears Greek Debt Default in August
Greece will eventually default on its debt because the country is highly indebted and the euro zone's approach towards saving it is the wrong one, Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, told CNBC Friday.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37632681
Big Week Ahead for Traders
Traders began leaving the building, mentally and physically, just after noon ET Friday, but next week is one of the biggest weeks in a long time, on all fronts:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37650407
Bullish Tailwinds Building, Has Market Turned Corner?
The S&P closed higher on Friday with investors shrugging off weak retail sales and instead focusing on a positive trend emerging in tech; the chip sector specifically.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37637338
Market Correction Makes One Group Happy: Short Sellers
Market volatility brought on during the correction off the April highs has eaten into many investor portfolios—but also generated opportunity for short sellers.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37641811
Production Probably Rose, Prices Fell: U.S. Economy Preview
(Bloomberg) -- Factories kept churning out more goods last month, while prices and home construction fell, pointing to a manufacturing-led U.S. recovery that is not generating inflation, economists said before reports this week.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afVs1JzRgfSE&pos=2
Goldman’s Slump May Lead the S&P 500 Lower: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Losses in the biggest U.S. banks and brokerages, whose share prices are more linked to the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index than at any time in seven years, suggest the benchmark measure of American equities may extend its seven-week slump, according to Concept Capital’s John Kolovos.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aOPlywcy3NOc
Dollar May Advance to 92 Yen on ‘Triangle’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar may break out of a “triangle” against the Japanese currency and advance to 92 yen, according to Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aG5Ac6lP8duE
Currency Controls Mount in Asia as Euro Hurts Exports (Update3)
(Bloomberg) -- The world’s biggest expected swings in foreign-exchange markets and the euro’s record depreciation are prompting Asian exporters to seek currency controls.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aHN8vLlBUmDQ
Asian Stocks to Rebound in 2nd Half, Julius Baer Says (Update2)
(Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks may rebound in the second half as the region withstands the European debt crisis and a weakening of the recovery in the U.S., according to Bank Julius Baer & Co.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aMAcE8R_khsY
Oil May Rise on Economic Rebound Signs, Survey Shows (Update1)
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may rise next week on speculation the euro and equities will advance, signs that the global economy and oil demand will strengthen, a Bloomberg News survey showed.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aR0_qrh3m6c0
Palm Oil Extends Drop, Has Longest Losing Streak in Five Months
(Bloomberg) -- Palm oil futures fell a fifth day, the longest losing streak in five months, as seasonal supply concerns are compounded by record soybean harvests.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDO8hIeCEuNM
Prudent Bear Tice Says U.S. Stocks Have Peaked for 2010: Video
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=abaP.fvCrrAw
S&P 500 Stocks Biggest Weekly Changes in Analyst Target Price
(Bloomberg) -- The following tables show the biggest increases and decreases in analysts’ target price, according to Bloomberg data, for companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index from June 4.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aHMkHwrO3RAM
Shiller Sees `Significant' Double-Dip Recession Chance: Video
June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Robert Shiller, an economics professor at Yale University and chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC, talks with Bloomberg's Julie Hyman about the U.S. economy, consumer spending and the outlook for U.S. stocks and the housing market. (Source: Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=akVRqrmKvmeo
Stocks will navigate choppy waters in the week ahead, but could sail a bit more smoothly—barring any nasty, new surprises from Europe.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37649299
Production Probably Rose, Prices Fell: U.S. (Bloomberg) -- Factories kept churning out more goods last month, while prices and home construction fell, pointing to a manufacturing-led U.S. recovery that is not generating inflation, economists said before reports this week.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=afVs1JzRgfSE
Bearish Sentiment Indicates Good Time to Buy: Art Hogan
Stocks pared their losses Friday after a report that showed consumer sentiment came in better than expected. Art Hogan, director of global equity products at Jefferies, shared his market outlook.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37638028
Warning: Rough Earnings Ahead?
Companies are surprisingly quiet while analysts have begun slashing estimates aggressively heading into the end of the second quarter, a phenomenon that could mean we’re in for some surprises over the next week, and not the good kind either, investors said.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37643552
Schork Oil Outlook: $75 Crude Means Nothing
Spot Nymex crude oil closed above $75 for the first time in a month. Of course, the difference between these two milestones was… a month ago the market was entrenched in a violent sell-off, today we are in the midst of the rebound from that weakness.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37641859
US Economist Fears Greek Debt Default in August
Greece will eventually default on its debt because the country is highly indebted and the euro zone's approach towards saving it is the wrong one, Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, told CNBC Friday.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37632681
Big Week Ahead for Traders
Traders began leaving the building, mentally and physically, just after noon ET Friday, but next week is one of the biggest weeks in a long time, on all fronts:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37650407
Bullish Tailwinds Building, Has Market Turned Corner?
The S&P closed higher on Friday with investors shrugging off weak retail sales and instead focusing on a positive trend emerging in tech; the chip sector specifically.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37637338
Market Correction Makes One Group Happy: Short Sellers
Market volatility brought on during the correction off the April highs has eaten into many investor portfolios—but also generated opportunity for short sellers.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37641811
Production Probably Rose, Prices Fell: U.S. Economy Preview
(Bloomberg) -- Factories kept churning out more goods last month, while prices and home construction fell, pointing to a manufacturing-led U.S. recovery that is not generating inflation, economists said before reports this week.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=afVs1JzRgfSE&pos=2
Goldman’s Slump May Lead the S&P 500 Lower: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Losses in the biggest U.S. banks and brokerages, whose share prices are more linked to the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index than at any time in seven years, suggest the benchmark measure of American equities may extend its seven-week slump, according to Concept Capital’s John Kolovos.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aOPlywcy3NOc
Dollar May Advance to 92 Yen on ‘Triangle’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar may break out of a “triangle” against the Japanese currency and advance to 92 yen, according to Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aG5Ac6lP8duE
Currency Controls Mount in Asia as Euro Hurts Exports (Update3)
(Bloomberg) -- The world’s biggest expected swings in foreign-exchange markets and the euro’s record depreciation are prompting Asian exporters to seek currency controls.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aHN8vLlBUmDQ
Asian Stocks to Rebound in 2nd Half, Julius Baer Says (Update2)
(Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks may rebound in the second half as the region withstands the European debt crisis and a weakening of the recovery in the U.S., according to Bank Julius Baer & Co.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aMAcE8R_khsY
Oil May Rise on Economic Rebound Signs, Survey Shows (Update1)
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may rise next week on speculation the euro and equities will advance, signs that the global economy and oil demand will strengthen, a Bloomberg News survey showed.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aR0_qrh3m6c0
Palm Oil Extends Drop, Has Longest Losing Streak in Five Months
(Bloomberg) -- Palm oil futures fell a fifth day, the longest losing streak in five months, as seasonal supply concerns are compounded by record soybean harvests.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDO8hIeCEuNM
Prudent Bear Tice Says U.S. Stocks Have Peaked for 2010: Video
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=abaP.fvCrrAw
S&P 500 Stocks Biggest Weekly Changes in Analyst Target Price
(Bloomberg) -- The following tables show the biggest increases and decreases in analysts’ target price, according to Bloomberg data, for companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index from June 4.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aHMkHwrO3RAM
Shiller Sees `Significant' Double-Dip Recession Chance: Video
June 11 (Bloomberg) -- Robert Shiller, an economics professor at Yale University and chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC, talks with Bloomberg's Julie Hyman about the U.S. economy, consumer spending and the outlook for U.S. stocks and the housing market. (Source: Bloomberg)
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=akVRqrmKvmeo
Volume Bar: IHSG/DJIA/Nikkei/HangSeng/Kospi/Oil/Gold
IHSG MP trend netral jangka pendek, kenaikan akan terhadang sejumlah resistansi di 2.825/2.850, yang merupakan pola distribusi dalam fase konsolidasi.
IHSG VB
DJI trend bearish, berpotensi menguat ke area 10300/10400, meski ada potensi aksi profit-taking karena masih dalam fase distribusi.
Nikkei Futures Juni: masuk dalam fase netral, sell di area kisaran 9.950/10.000, stop loss diatas 10.010, buy breakout 10.020 target 10.300.
Hang Seng Futures Juni: trend bearish, sell area di bawah 20300 traget 19.600 stop diatas 10.400. buy area 19.600 target 20.300. buy breakout 20.400 tgt 20.800
Kospi Futures Juni
Oil
Gold
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