Welcome To The Club of 3.000 & It's Just 1/2 Way through Year-End (0908)

IHSG diperkirakan masih konsolidasi dalam uptrend, meski dihantui oleh kekhawatiran terhadap ekonomi AS setelah data tenaga kerja di bulan lalu (Unemployment 9.5%, Non Farm Payroll -131K dari revisi yang memburuk -221k), ekonomi China yang diperkirakan soft landing, kondisi pasar yang overbought secara teknikal (terlihat divergence bearish) dan fundamental yang mahal (P/E diatas 15x) dan berakhirnya euphoria musim Earnings di tanah air, diikuti kekhawatiran inflasi bulan lalu dan AGustus yang diperkirakan lebih tinggi menjelang bulan Ramadhan dan hari raya Idul Fitri, telah mendorong spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga BI sebesar 25 bsp menjadi 6.50 di RDG BI bulan Oktober mendatang, berpeluang membatasi laju kenaikan IHSG dalam jangka pendek yang masih ditopang oleh kinerja GDP Q2 RI (6.2%) dan GDP Q2 Singapura (17.1%), diikuti penguatan rupiah yang masih menunjukkan inflow dari investor asing ke pasar SUN & SBI. Pasar menunggu pertemuan FOMC AS untuk memutuskan suku bunga pada 09-10 Agustus dimana diperkirakan tetap mempertahankan 0.25% dan dapat menyatakan untuk pembelian surat berharga dan mortgage.  

Buy on weakness (stop loss 3% if break support):  
AALI/LSIP/SGRO/TBLA/GZCO/WIKA/ADRO/ANTM/PGAS/MEDC/ASII/UNTR/BSDE/SMRA/TLKM/BBRI/BDMN/BBCA/BMRI

Close all position (04/08): Mayoritas profit diatas 15% sejak (19/07). 

BNI Technical Analysis 09-08 (ADRO/ANTM/PGAS/MEDC) :   


Berau Coal Energy (Mining sector)
Listing Date 19 Aug 2010
Offering periode 10-12 Aug 2010
Offered share 7,000,000,000 shr
Price Rp300-400
Underwritter Danatama Makmur, Recapital 

Molindo Raya Industrial (Manufacture sector)
Listing Date TBA Offering periode TBA
Offered share 650,000,000 shr
Price TBA Waran Bonus N/a
Underwritter Mandiri Sekuritas
CBP Indofood (Oktober)/Garuda are next

Workshop & Seminar Combo Technical Analysis Oktober-Desember 2010

Seminar Combo Technical Analysis, rencananya akan diadakan bulan Oktober - Desember 2010.
Sample Track Record dibawah ini belum termasuk analisa sejumlah saham lainnya sejak Mei 2010 - saat ini (BNI Technical Analysis Daily; analisa harian saham unggulan & gorengan harian). 

Dapat diaplikasikan untuk Intraday Trading, Buy & hold 1 - 4 minggu, Investasi ala TA, untuk menghasilkan Return trading 5%-30% (time frame 1-4 minggu), investasi 10-50% (time frame 6-12 bulan). 

Combo Technical Analysis (CTA) dapat dipakai dengan menggunakan Amibroker, ChartNexus, Metastocks, Metatrader, Yahoo Finance, OLT berbagai sekuritas. 

Bahan training akan mencakup: BASIC/INTERMEDIATE/ADVANCE.  
Diantaranya: Aggresive Indicators, New Style of Candlestick, Combo MA (golden cross, silver cross, dead cross), Fibonacci (5 macam), Pivot,  Zig zag, fractal, Neowave, Elliott Wave, TD Wave, Market Profile, Volume Bar, Volatility, Kaufman Pattern, Dow Theory, Combo MACD, W.D Gann Square (termasuk Gann Fan, Grid, Line). 

Terdiri dari 2 paket: A & B: senilai Rp 3juta - 5 Juta.

Peserta akan mendapatkan modul training, akomodasi, bonus analisa (SMS/newsletter/premium member/konsultasi gratis investasi).

Combo Technical Analysis (CTA) saham dapat diterapkan di instrumen derivatif seperti forex, index, commodity, options, ETF dan CFD. 

Bonus: Simple Fundamental Analysis (menunggu konfirmasi tutor); Bandarmologi (trading cuan hanya melihat screen tanpa TA & FA, menganalisa rumor & mendapatkan keuntungan) untuk saham, forex, index, commodity dan skenario sesuai logika pergerakan pasar global 2010-2012.   

Kelanjutan: Free membership untuk mendapatkan analisa ekonomi, fundamental, teknikal, bandarmologi, sentimen (saham Indonesia; derivative is next) berupa sms rekomendasi/via FB; daily newsletter (Technical analysis saham unggulan/gorengan), konsultasi portofolio. 

Sample analisa strategis Combo Technical Analysis (CTA)  menjadi bahan  Workshop &

Track Records Analisa Combo Technical Analysis (CTA)   

IHSG: (29/07) Hold Sell 3.090/3.100 target 2.970 stop diatas 3.130. 
Track Record IHSG (since end of March 2010) : 50 Recommendations (34 profits: 4 break even: 12 loss) = (+20p+45p+73p+53+60p+45p+63p+0p+27p+50p-20p+13p+40p+45p+40p+29p-30p-154p-75p+80p+26p+0p+28p+80p+62p+53p+20p+0p+70p+99p+135p-20p-30p+50p+60p+100p+0p-55p-30p+59p-30p-20p-30p-30p+45p+70p+74p+57p). Total : Net +1436 points = Average 28.72 point. 

DJIA MP: Wave 3/c dalam B is on the way

Wave 3/c dalam B is on the way. (23/07) Closed Hold Buy break 10.415 = Profit 20 points.
Buy 10.335 target 10.550 stop 50p. Sell breakout 10.280 target 10.000 stop 50p. Buy break 10.590 target 10.700 (200-day MA) stop 50p.

Track record 42 Trades: (-65p-30p+370p + 280p+190p-30p+230p-30p+120p+200p-40p+280p+198p+205p+110p-30p+70p+200p+150p-50p-30p-30p-30p+145p-50p-30p+175p-50p-50p-60p-50p-50p+225p+100p-55p+100p+380p+220p+230p-100p-60p+265p+20p). Total Net +3503 points = Average +83.40 points/trade.

Closing Position sejak 19/07 & 04 /08:
http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/08/laporan-saham-indonesia-04082010_05.html 

Hold Buy Position (05 & 06 Juli 2010): AGRO/AISA/CNKO/DOID/ELSA/MIRA/TMPI/JPRS/DGIK/CTRA/CPIN/BTEK/TMPI:  http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/07/hold-buy-position-05-06072010.html
 
Reminder 13/07: Buy on weakness/Spec Buy: ASDM/BIPI/BISI/BSDE/GDST/JPFA
http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2010-07-27T16%3A58%3A00%2B07%3A00&max-results=18

TD Wave & Dow Theory: Top 11 Saham Indonesia 2907 :ASII/BUMI/BBRI/BJBR/WIKA/JPFA/BHIT/TMPI/DOID/BSDE/BKSL: http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/07/td-wave-dow-theory-top-11-saham.html

Top 7 Saham Pilihan: Buy on Weakness: INCO/IDKM/GJTL/KLBF/CPIN/INKP/BBNIhttp://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/07/top-7-saham-pilihan.html 

Top Picks  & Hold Stocks Recommendation (Check Out The Charts). Last updated 19/05/2010.
Top 49 Stock yang telah ditutup posisinya (Profit 37; Loss 12; Break even 0).
Bisa dilihat di artikel per: 30/04/10. (kisaran keuntungan antara +10 - 80% per saham).
Saham Pilihan: ELTY/BIPI/KARK/DOID/BRPT/SULI/KAEF/MRAT/KIJA/BSDE/TBLA/ANTM/BKSL/WIKA/ASRI/INDY/BHIT/ADRO/BISI/AKRA/ENRG/MPPA/APOL/LPKR/PLAS/SMRA/BUMI/PGAS/SULI/RAJA/BKSL/ITMG/MNCN/SDRA/BMTR/ASIA/CNKO/DGIK/BTEL/MASA/APLI/ITMG/CTRP/DILD.

Stock Picks (Ex UBI Securities Recommendations) Last 29/03/2010: Total last 37 week +153.083%. 
Target: >30%-100%,  Risk: < -10%
Profit: 36 Pekan / Loss: 1 Pekan
Profit dalam 19 Pekan terakhir; sebelumnya 19 pekan berturut-turut Positive Return) = Average 4.130%/Week.
Outperform IHSG ditutup di 2.813.082 (+149 poin = +5.59%) pekan ini dalam 37 pekan = +4.130%/week; IHSG (Range 1.063 poin: 1,750-2,813 : 37 pekan = 60.74%) = Average 1.694%/week. 

Artikel 21/06/2010 (G.S.M Maintain Target of  IHSG (3.400; In Kontan News - April 2010) & DJIA (12.350) By Year End, 3.150 in Q3 2010. 

The Technical Analysis are next, including IHSG in 4.985 before Major Crash in 2012 (Dragon's Year).

Posting pada 23 Januari 2010 (Prospek Saham Indonesia & Investasi Global 2010)

Market Strategist 06-09 August: IHSG & DJIA

IHSG Combo Technical Analysis (CTA):  Dow Theory/Gann Grid/Elliott Wave/Fibonacci/Modern TA (DMI/Stochastic/MACD/Zig Zag)/Candlesticks.
IHSG telah mencapai 2 target: 1. Resist di 3.100an (panah biru) dan target support di 2.970 (arah panah kuning).  IHSG menunjukkan kenaikan terbatas dibawah 3.100, karena stochastic dead cross dan wave koreksi abc.

IHSG Volume Bar: 

(03/08) Closed Hold Buy 3.000 target 3.050 = Profit +50p. Sell 3.090/3.100 target 3.000 stop 30p.
Track Record IHSG (since end of March 2010) : 52 Recommendations (36 profits: 4 break even: 12 loss) = (+20p+45p+73p+53+60p+45p+63p+0p+27p+50p-20p+13p+40p+45p+40p+29p-30p-154p-75p+80p+26p+0p+28p+80p+62p+53p+20p+0p+70p+99p+135p-20p-30p+50p+60p+100p+0p-55p-30p+59p-30p-20p-30p-30p+45p+70p+74p+57p+35p+50p). Total : Net +1531 points = Average 29.44 point. 

DJIA Volume Bar

Wave 3/c dalam B is on the way. DJIA masih downtrend channel & dibawah 200-day MA (10.712), lower high lower low, divergence bearish.

(04/08) Hold Sell 10.690 & SELL breakout 10.510 target 10.300 stop 50p. Buy 10.305 target 10.600 stop 50p. 

Track record 43 Trades: (-65p-30p+370p + 280p+190p-30p+230p-30p+120p+200p-40p+280p+198p+205p+110p-30p+70p+200p+150p-50p-30p-30p-30p+145p-50p-30p+175p-50p-50p-60p-50p-50p+225p+100p-55p+100p+380p+220p+230p-100p-60p+265p+20p+80P). Total Net +3583 points = Average +83.32 points/trade.

Week Ahead & Daily Investment News

Asian Stocks Fall on U.S. Payrolls Report; Canon, Toyota Drop
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ajEoCjeAGjak&pos=1
BRICs Losing to Turkey in Stocks as Indonesia Swaps Beat Russia
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aJeVDjTrLtQY&pos=6
Goldman Sachs Lowers Forecast for Japan, U.S. Growth (Update1)
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a9XJKGRNoUoM&pos=6
Crash of 2015 Won’t Wait for Regulators to Rein in Wall Street
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aHCeGoX7trQw&pos=4
Euro Returns 5% for Bulls Who Acted on ECB’s Defiance
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTcdC_Qg7eE8&pos=3Week Ahead: Markets Look to the Fed
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38601214
Retail Sales Probably Increased in July: U.S. Economy Preview
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=as7s6pKI5r44&pos=3
Indonesia-Linked Structured Note Sales Reach Highest in 5 Years
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aKRZbMpNU.6w
Asian Currencies Gain for Third Week as Growth Attracts Funds
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aTcnwEqfGc3M
Breadth Shows U.S. Stocks Rally to Continue: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aNG_AqQ1wstA
Halftime: Technicals, Fundamentals To Push S&P Lower?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38592068
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1560829264&play=1
Dollar Will Weaken, 3 Sectors Will Rule: Strategists
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38580887
Markets to Stay 'Very Volatile': Stock Picker
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38592858
Dow Rises for Third Consecutive Week
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38598409

Expect S&P to Hit 1250-1300 by Year-End: Kotok
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35784786/
Earnings Season Exposed: Analysts Cutting 2011 EPS
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38592107
Sell G7 Bonds Ahead of Fed Meeting: Strategist
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38588854
August 6: Unusual Volume Leaders
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38596039
Sell the Dollar On Data and Fed: Currency Strategist
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38571275
Oil to Rise Toward $83.55 Fibonacci Target: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZmj5XN8ByFM
Pound May Decline on Cloud Resistance: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6eKG7pC81SA
Bear Kisses Show Canada Stocks Won’t Rally: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aBzF8H.d9Hvs
Singapore Economy Expanded 17.9% in First Six Months (Update2)
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aqixdK3U4UeE&pos=6
No Gain From Rain for Indonesia Coal on China: Energy Markets
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=avf9AtA1neRQ
Palm Oil at Five-Month High as Grain ‘Market on Fire’ on Russia
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=al_IDKjvotPw
Gold to Gain, Revive Inverse Link With Dollar: Chart of the Day
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2S5cIZEy1v0

EWI : Market Insight: Are Stocks Topping?

Option Traders' Optimism Providing a Clue
Trader optimism has been rising lately.
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/08/05/Market-Insight--Are-Stocks-Topping.aspx

Market Insight: EUR/USD At a 3-Month High
On August 6, the U.S. dollar fell to a 3-month low against the euro, sending the EUR/USD (euro-dollar exchange rate and the most actively traded forex pair) as high as $1.3330 in intraday trading
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/08/06/Market-Insight-EUR/USD-At-a-3-Month-High.aspx

Can 5 waves down be immediately followed by 5 waves up?
http://www.elliottwave.com/MsgBoard/default.aspx?v=posting&id=43290&articleid=0

Can I apply the Wave Principle to individual stocks?
http://www.elliottwave.com/MsgBoard/default.aspx?v=posting&id=43288&articleid=0

The Way to Superior Trading Skills
The Only Short Cut is Learn, Learn, Learn and Practice, Practice, Practice
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/08/04/The-Way-to-Superior-Trading-Skills.aspx