Analisa Teknikal Saham: CPIN/JPFA/SOBI

CPIN: Buy breakout resist channel 4.985 hingga 5.050 untuk target 5.950/6.350/7.100 dalam wave impulse 5, stochastic oversold. Stop loss dibawah 4.625

JPFA: Dalam wave impulse 5 (3) & falling wedge, konsolidasi dengan bertahan diatas 2.270 (5-10 day MA). Akumulasi Buy area 2.175-2.275 target 2.875-3.535. Stop loss dibawah 2.100.

SOBI: MACD strong BULL, buying power strong, diatas 1.982 (5-day MA) untuk target 2.300/2.675, selama bertahan diatas 1.945 (support line). Buy area 2.050-2.100 target 2.300/2.675, stop loss dibawah 1.940.

Welcome To The Club of 3.000 & It's Just 1/2 Way through Year-End (1608)

Indeks diperkirakan masih akan mendapatkan tekanan untuk membatasi potensi kenaikan pada hari ini, berkat faktor eksternal yang menunjukkan signal indeks saham regional mengalami penurunan lebih lanjut dari data Retail Sales AS bulan lalu tidak mencapai prediksi pasar (0.4% mm), data GDP Q2 Jepang tercatat dibawah prediksi pasar dan (0.4% dari revisi 4.4% di Q1) memicu kekhawatiran terhadap ekonomi AS dan Jepang (Double Dip?) di tengah penguatan yen yang dapat membatasi ekspansi pertumbuhan di Jepang. Kondisi tersebut mendorong pelaku pasar memburu yen Jepang dan dolar AS, gold Treasury AS sebagai safe haven, menurunkan daya tarik untuk investasi saham di pasar modal. Diikuti dari sisi teknikal IHSG menunjukkan pola candle downside three methods yang menunjukkan potensi reversal dan stochastic yang crossover down dalam wave koreksi C, dapat meredam signal positif dari pola higher high higher low, penutupan diatas 3-5-10-day MA.

BUY on Weakness (stop loss 5% from support to buy back on support):  
PTBA/MAPI/BBNI/GJTL/ASII/TLKM/BBRI/BBTN/BJBR/WIKA/SMGR/BTEK/BKSL/ITMG/GGRM/UNVR 

Close all position (04/08): Mayoritas profit diatas 15% sejak (19/07). 

BNI Technical Analysis 16-08 (PTBA/MAPI/BBNI/GJTL) :   


Berau Coal Energy (Mining sector)
Listing Date 19 Aug 2010
Offering periode 10-12 Aug 2010
Offered share 7,000,000,000 shr
Price Rp 400
Underwritter Danatama Makmur, Recapital 

Molindo Raya Industrial (Manufacture sector)
Listing Date TBA Offering periode TBA
Offered share 650,000,000 shr
Price TBA Waran Bonus N/a
Underwritter Mandiri Sekuritas
CBP Indofood (Oktober)/Garuda are next

Market Strategist: IHSG & DJIA 16-08

IHSG Combo Technical Analysis (CTA):  Dow Theory/Gann Grid/Elliott Wave/Fibonacci/Modern TA (DMI/Stochastic/MACD/Zig Zag)/Candlesticks.
IHSG telah mencapai 2 target: 1. Resist di 3.100an (panah biru) dan target support di 2.970 (arah panah kuning).  IHSG menunjukkan kenaikan terbatas dibawah 3.100, karena stochastic dead cross dan wave koreksi abc.

Liat TD Wave 10/08: http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=6833542981102286398&postID=5218895147221569420

Sell 3.090/3.100 target 3.000 stop 30p. Sell breakout 3.035 target 2.970 stop 50p.
Track Record IHSG (since end of March 2010) : 53 Recommendations (37 profits: 4 break even: 12 loss) = (+20p+45p+73p+53+60p+45p+63p+0p+27p+50p-20p+13p+40p+45p+40p+29p-30p-154p-75p+80p+26p+0p+28p+80p+62p+53p+20p+0p+70p+99p+135p-20p-30p+50p+60p+100p+0p-55p-30p+59p-30p-20p-30p-30p+45p+70p+74p+57p+35p+50p+50p). Total : Net +1581 points = Average 29.83 point.

IHSG Elliot Wave

IHSG Volume Bar

IHSG Volatility

DJIA Elliott Wave
DJIA:  Wave C is on the way. DJIA masih downtrend channel & dibawah 200-day MA (10.703), lower high higher low, stochastic dead cross.
Hold Sell breakout 10.320 target 10.150 stop 50p. Closed Buy 10.350 = -30P. 
Buy 10.150 & buy breakout 10.435 target 10555 stop 50p.  

Track record 46 Trades: (-65p-30p+370p + 280p+190p-30p+230p-30p+120p+200p-40p+280p+198p+205p+110p-30p+70p+200p+150p-50p-30p-30p-30p+145p-50p-30p+175p-50p-50p-60p-50p-50p+225p+100p-55p+100p+380p+220p+230p-100p-60p+265p+20p+80P+90P+130P-30P). Total Net +3773 points = Average +82.02 points/trade.

http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=6833542981102286398&postID=5783868815015600408

DJIA Volatility

Perfomance of Asian Index; Volume Bar IHSG/DJIA

IHSG Index Member Weightings

Asian Index

Global Index

Technical Analysis of Stocks/Commodity (Double Dip / Double Down?)

EW: MSCI Asia Pacific Gauge to Retest May Low: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aus7JfYgvMqg
Week Ahead: Stock Market Watches Economy for Signs of Double Dip
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38695912
Halftime: Technical Pattern of S&P 500 Signaling 10% Decline?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38692765
Darting, Volatile Market Gets New Description: Wolf
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38692750
For Dow Theorists, Two Flashing Trends
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38676485
Is It Time to Surrender to the Downtrend?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38692789
Euro May Test 8-Year Low on Ichimoku Break: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ahiEe49d9eqw
Oil to Hold $75 as Rising Pattern Unbroken: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anDM.3PLJ7Nk
‘Hindenburg Omen’ Suggests Slump in Stocks: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aHQKRDhjzkEs

Crude Oil Rebounds From One-Month Low After Falling Below $76
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aELx1n6HSCZE
Semiconductor Index Breaks Diamond Pattern: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aiG5SzteiDnY
Platinum May Fall to $1,492 on ‘Double Top’: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a67yf8RiMKfE
Traders Should Watch Yen’s Gain Versus Yuan: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aidLFhDHtKpw
Dollar Index Breaks Longest Losing Streak in 5 Years on Outlook
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aFBocQRjLkRg&pos=4
U.S. 10-Year Note Resistance at 2.62% Yield: Technical Analysis
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aJ4vYzzDraB0
Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook
http://oilngold.com/ong-focus/technical/crude-oil-weekly-technical-outlook-2010081413931/

Gold Weekly Technical Outlook
http://oilngold.com/ong-focus/technical/gold-weekly-technical-outlook-2010081413933/

FIBONACCI:
Fibonacci Counts:  The market has traded very nicely compared to Fibonacci numbers from peaks and troughs.  The next couple days are a perfect time based on the Fibonacci count of 144 days to complete the right shoulder from the left shoulder.  The RSI provides room for this to occur.

SPX-daily:  The market has been tracing out a potential head and shoulders topping pattern for weeks.  I had two different time frames for that right shoulder, which included July 31st and August 6/9th.  August 10-11th is Fibonacci 143/144 days between left and right shoulders.  The chart below reflects the market has maintained price inside the wedge and below the prior high in red and the 62% retracement level in black.  It’s also below the upper Bollinger Band, which coincides with the retracement level of 62%.  I’d really like to see the right shoulder finish a tad below the upper band, as that fits well within the book, “Bollinger on Bollinger Bands” on the correlation of a right shoulder and Bollinger Bands.