The Combination of Technical-Analysis & Astrolo9y (CTA)

Blog milik Andri Zakarias Siregar, Analis, Trader, Investor & Trainer (Fundamental/Technical/Flowtist/Bandarmologi: Saham/FX/Commodity), berpengalaman 14 tahun. Narasumber: Berita 1 First Media, Channel 95 MNC(Indovision), MetroTV, ANTV, Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Investor Today, Tempo, Trust, Media Indonesia, Bisnis Indonesia, Seputar Indonesia, Kontan, Harian Jakarta, PasFM, Inilah.com, AATI-IFTA *** Semoga analisa CTA & informasi bermanfaat. Happy Zhuan & Success Trading. Good Luck.

Monday, September 20, 2010

@ASII: Potensi reversal bullish besok (21/09), selama bertahan diatas 10-day MA , target 63K-80K (New Upgrade)

Welcome To The Club of 3.300-3.500 (20-09): 3ull Attack target 3.400/3.550 Soon

Indeks diperkirakan masih akan melanjutkan trend kenaikan di pekan ini, berkat kuatnya inflow (investor asing net buy Rp 314 miliar (17/09; net buy Rp 4.8 triliun sejak 6 September 2010), diikuti EPFR menunjukkan capital inflow ke Equity fund di emerging market meningkat menjadi $ 9.2 miliar di pekan lalu (Indeks saham SET Thailand & Philipine meningkat 30%-36%), trend uptrend secara teknikal (target akhir tahun IHSG diupgrade menjadi 3.550 dari 3,400 di prediksi sebelumnya) dan fundamental ekonomi RI dan kinerja emiten yang solid (GDP q2/2010-2011, Cadangan devisa meningkat, rupiah menguat, ekspor melonjak) tercatat lebih baik dari prediksi analis, sentimen yang positif (rating hutang RI masih berpotensi dinaikan lembaga pemeringkat Moodys; World Economic Forum menaikkan tingkat daya saing RI menjadi 44 dari 54; Credit Default Swap kembali terkoreksi; kepemilikan asing mencetak rekor tertinggi baru Rp 176 triliun-27.66% dari total outstanding), serta kondisi regional yang membaik dari lebih baik dari prediksi data ekonomi China (retail sales, manufacturing, FDI, impor); data jobless AS (mendukung ekspektasi Non Farm Payroll September berada di kisaran +100.000), GDP Regional Asia Tenggara tercatat lebih baik dari prediksi, pelemahan dolar yang juga menguntungkan harga komoditas global (agri, logam, soft commodity) hingga menjelang pertemuan FOMC AS yang diperkirakan tetap mempertahankan suku bunga 0% (diperkirakan hingga akhir tahun 2011) dan mempertahankan pembelian mortgage & surat berharga treasury. IHSG diperkirakan berada dalam kisaran 3.300-3.500 di pekan ini.

Saksikan Mover & Shaker, Power Breakfast & Stock Shot setiap hari Jumat, jam 9.10- 10.30 WIB bersama PT. BNI Securities Indonesia; berdasarkan analisa Global, Sentiment (Inflow), Teknikal di Channel Business 95 MNC Indovision (SUN TV).

Indeks berpeluang menguat ke target 3.150 (target GSM di Q3 2010, tercapai 26/08) dan 3.400 (target GSM akhir tahun; direvisi menjadi 3.550; Analisa EW/Gann/Fibonacci).

Close all position (04/08): Mayoritas profit diatas 15% sejak (19/07).

BNI Technical Analysis 12-09 (ELTY/UNSP/INTP/BBTN) :

Jadwal IPO:
Harum Energy (Mining sector)Listing Date 6 October 2010
Offering periode 28-30 September 2010
Offered share 650,000,000 shr
Price Rp5,200
Underwritter Mandiri Sekuritas, Ciptadana,
Goldman Sach, Deutche group

Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur (Consumer Goods sector)Listing Date 7 October 2010
Offering periode 28-30 September 2010
Offered share 1,166,191,000 shr
Price Rp5,395
Underwritter Kim Eng Sec., Credit Suisse Sec.
Indonesia, Deutsche Sec. Indonesia

Mandiri Sekuritas
Molindo Raya Industrial (Manufacture sector)
Listing Date TBA Offering periode TBA
Offered share 650,000,000 shr
Price TBA Waran Bonus N/a
Underwritter Mandiri Sekuritas
Krakatau Steel/Garuda/Tower/Newmont/Borneo Lumbung Energy are next

Sep 2 2010, 4:07 PM Gallery Saham Mania:
HOLD BUY (liat chat roll): PGAS @ 3.950-4.000 (15/09) target 4.700/5.800/INDF @5.100 (15/09) 6.050-7.350/INCO @4.475 (15/09) target 5.300/6.500 (Upgrade)/BRAU @420 & 455 tgt 485-500/JPFA @2.225 (A) tgt 3.000-3.500 (tercapai)/SOBI @2.325 tgt 2.750-3.200 (tercapai)/BLTA @240 tgt 265-280/UNVR @16900 tgt 18.500/GJTL @1.760 tgt 2300/RALS @840 tgt 1050-1400/MAPI @1130 tgt 1625-2285/BBKP @730 tgt 850-930/TPIA @2600 (-10%)/MYOR @8200 tgt 10.800 (tercapai)/BNGA @1260 tgt 1340-1.560/JSMR @2.925 tgt 3.325/BUMI @1.655 (A) tgt 1.780-1.840 (tercapai)/ADRO @1.825 (A) tgt 1.940 (tercapai). Stop loss < -7%.

Check out my blog (Gallery Saham Mania): globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com

IHSG: Buy 3.360 target 3.410 stop 30p. Sell 3.400/3.430 (target Fibo) target 3.250 stop 50P. DJIA: Hold Buy 10500-10530 (15/09) target breakout 10720 (to Buy breakout again)/10.990/11.650 (in 2011) stop 10.500

* Upgrade target Akhir Tahun menjadi 3.550/ 4.200 di H1 2011 (The 1st Upgrade in Indonesia).

IHSG

Liat TD Wave 10/08: http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=6833542981102286398&postID=5218895147221569420

Track Record IHSG (since end of March 2010) : 60 Recommendations (43 profits: 4 break even: 13 loss) = (+20p+45p+73p+53+60p+45p+63p+0p+27p+50p-20p+13p+40p+45p+40p+29p-30p-154p-75p+80p+26p+0p+28p+80p+62p+53p+20p+0p+70p+99p+135p-20p-30p+50p+60p+100p+0p-55p-30p+59p-30p-20p-30p-30p+45p+70p+74p+57p+35p+50p+50p-30P+20P+20P+35P+54P+60P). Total : Net +1770 points = Average 29.5 point.

DJIA

Track record 49 Trades: (-65p-30p+370p + 280p+190p-30p+230p-30p+120p+200p-40p+280p+198p+205p+110p-30p+70p+200p+150p-50p-30p-30p-30p+145p-50p-30p+175p-50p-50p-60p-50p-50p+225p+100p-55p+100p+380p+220p+230p-100p-60p+265p+20p+80P+90P+130P-30P+50P-50P-50P+100P+20P). Total Net +3843 points = Average +78.02 points/trade.

Update Daily Investment News

Week Ahead: Market Will Watch Fed, Then Politics and Economy
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39238345
Oil and Gold Next Week: What Traders Will Watch
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1593832417&play=1
Can S&P Break Through 1131 Level?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39237834
10 Dow Stocks That Matter Most: Strategist
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39211049
Stocks in 'Good Position' to Break Out: Top Portfolio Manager
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39194491
Man Vs. Machine: The New Kings Of Wall Street
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38990334
Markets Likely to See Upside Breakout: Art Hogan
http://www.cnbc.com/id/39231476

IMF Says Indonesia Policy Should Be ‘More Proactive’ (Update1)
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSGj.yKRcWz8
Home Sales, Goods Orders Probably Rose: U.S. Economy Preview
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=alR4P.I6keaQ&pos=1

Bloomberg Survey

==============================================================
                        Release    Period    Prior     Median
Indicator                 Date               Value    Forecast
==============================================================
NAHB Housing Index        9/20     Sept.       13        14
Housing Starts ,000’s     9/21      Aug.      546       550
Housing Starts MOM%       9/21      Aug.      1.7%      0.7%
Building Permits ,000’s   9/21      Aug.      559       560
Initial Claims ,000’s     9/23     18-Sep     450       450
LEI  MOM%                 9/23      Aug.      0.1%      0.1%
Exist Homes Mlns          9/23      Aug.      3.83      4.10
Exist Homes MOM%          9/23      Aug.     -27.2%     7.1%
Durables Orders MOM%      9/24      Aug.      0.4%     -1.0%
Durables Ex-Trans MOM%    9/24      Aug.     -3.7%      1.0%
Cap Goods Core MOM%       9/24      Aug.     -7.2%      4.0%
New Home Sales ,000’s     9/24      Aug.      276       295
New Home Sales MOM%       9/24      Aug.     -12.4%     6.9%
==============================================================
Nasdaq-100 Advance May Herald Broader Gains: Technical Analysis

Kalender & Event Ekonomi Global 20 - 24 September 2010

(WIB: +11 Jam)
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php