The Combination of Technical-Analysis & Astrolo9y (CTA)

Blog milik Andri Zakarias Siregar, Analis, Trader, Investor & Trainer (Fundamental/Technical/Flowtist/Bandarmologi: Saham/FX/Commodity), berpengalaman 14 tahun. Narasumber: Berita 1 First Media, Channel 95 MNC(Indovision), MetroTV, ANTV, Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Investor Today, Tempo, Trust, Media Indonesia, Bisnis Indonesia, Seputar Indonesia, Kontan, Harian Jakarta, PasFM, Inilah.com, AATI-IFTA *** Semoga analisa CTA & informasi bermanfaat. Happy Zhuan & Success Trading. Good Luck.

Monday, October 18, 2010

Welcome To The Club of 3.500-3.850 (18-10): Boogie's End To Continue To Poco-Poco

IHSG diperkirakan masih berkonsolidasi dalam sebuah Trend 3ullish, berkat kondisi technical yang overbought dan divergence bearish, diikuti sentimen negatif dari ketidakpastian mengenai ekonomi AS dari penurunan consumer confidence University of Michigan dan spekulasi the Fed akan membeli Treasury sebesar $ 65 miliar di bulan depan guna menghindari ekonomi AS mengarah menuju "Double Dip" dan imbas penguatan yen Jepang dan mata uang regional Asia lainnya dapat mengganggu pertumbuhan ekonomi Asia dan global. Meskipun kinerja IHSG masih ditopang oleh banjirnya likuiditas ke pasar modal Indonesia, dimana investor asing mendapatkan keuntungan dari tingginya yield yang ditawarkan dan debt environment yang solid menjelang Indonesia menuju investment grade, awal musim Earnings di tanah air dan global yang tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan, sejumlah rencana IPO (Tower Bersama, Agung Podomoro dan Krakatau Steel dll) dalam waktu dekat ini, diikuti fundamental ekonomi yang solid dan kondisi Technical Short-Term hingga Long -Term masih 3ullish dan belum menunjukkan signal reversal, seharusnya masih memberikan support kepada kinerja IHSG hari ini. Saham dari sektor komoditas diperkirakan akan mengalami aksi profit taking setelah harga minyak terkoreksi ke $80/barel, terutama di saham coal (ITMG, ADRO, PTBA, HRUM, BRAU), cpo (LSIP, AALI), dan energy (PGAS, ENRG), dan menguntungkan untuk saham semen (INTP, SMCB, SMGR), aneka industri (ASII), infrastruktur (TLKM, WIKA, ADHI, JSMR), hingga property (ELTY, BKSL, LPKR, BSDE, SMRA, CTRA, CTRP), 2nd liner (Buy on weakness: MAPI, ULTJ, GJTL, SDRA, KARK, CPIN, JPFA). IHSG diperkirakan dalam kisaran 3.570-3.620.

Saksikan Dealing Room Jumat (22/10): 14.00-15.00 WIB & Mover & Shaker Jam 19.00 - 20.00 WIB di Channel 95 Sun TV (Indovision).

Indeks berpeluang menguat ke target 3.150 (target GSM di Q3 2010, tercapai 26/08) dan 3.400 (target GSM akhir tahun; direvisi menjadi 3.850 dari 3.550; Analisa EW/Gann/Fibonacci).

Close all position (04/08): Mayoritas profit diatas 15% sejak (19/07).

BNI Securities Technical Analysis 18-10 (Sell ITMG: Buy INTP/MEDC/SGRO)
http://www.ziddu.com/download/12123298/101810t.pdf.html

Jadwal IPO:
Tower Bersama Infrastructure (Telecommunication Infrastructure serve)
Listing Date 26 October 2010
Offering periode 18-20 October 2010
Offered share 755,000,000 shr
Price Rp1,675-2,100

Ke-12 calon emiten yang dalam proses go public antara lain Krakatau Steel dengan target dana Rp 3,3 triliun, Bumi Resources Mineral (Rp 3 triliun), Borneo Lumbung Energy (Rp 3 triliun), Agung Podomoro (Rp 1,8 triliun), Tower Bersama (Rp 1,5 triliun), dan Wintermar Rp 400 miliar.

Sep 2 2010, 4:07 PM Gallery Saham Mania
HOLD BUY (liat chat roll): MASA: Buy breakout Fibo (23/09) at 380 target 440/500/MEDC: Buy (22/09) 3.150 target 3.400 (tercapai)/4.400 stop loss dibawah 2950/Buy ASII (21/09) 55.600 target 63.000/80.000/@ENRG Buy Breakout 125 (22/09) target 190/Buy (21/09) BWPT @910 target 1.030-1.250/ ELSA @345 target 370-420/BUMI @1.960 (20/09) target 2.150 (tercapai)/2.350 (tercapai)/ CPIN @6.900 (15/09) target 10.350/ PGAS @ 3.950-4.000 (15/09) target 4.700/5.800/INDF @5.100 (15/09) 6.050-7.350/INCO @4.475 (15/09) target 5.300/6.500 (Upgrade)/BRAU (19/08) @420 & 455 tgt 485-500/JPFA @2.225 (A) tgt 3.000-3.500 (tercapai)/SOBI @2.325 tgt 2.750-3.200 (tercapai)/BLTA @240 tgt 265-280 (tercapai)/UNVR @16900 tgt 18.500/GJTL @1.760 tgt 2300/RALS @840 tgt 1050-1400/MAPI @1130 tgt 1625 (tercapai)-2285/BBKP @730 tgt 850-930/TPIA @2600 (-10%)/MYOR @8200 tgt 10.800 (tercapai)/BNGA @1260 tgt 1340-1.560/JSMR @2.925 tgt 3.325/BUMI @1.655 (A) tgt 1.780-1.840 (tercapai)/ADRO @1.825 (A) tgt 1.940 (tercapai). Stop loss < -7%.

Check out my blog (Gallery Saham Mania): globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com

Sunday, October 17, 2010

Be Ready For Workshop Combo Technical Analysis (CTA) Saham++: November-Desember 2010

Berhubung dengan kesibukan trainer/penulis blogger Gallery Saham Mania ini di bulan Oktober, kemungkinan besar pelaksanaan Workshop New Style of Combo Technical Analysis (CTA) untuk Basic - Intermediate - Advanced, baru dapat dilaksanakan 20 -22 November 2010 (09.30 - 17.00 WIB). Harap maklum. Terima kasih atas perhatiannya.

Detail Modul Training: Basic - Intermediate - Advanced

(Paket Modul sewaktu2 bisa berubah), All in 3 Days
Harga Paket / Training : I - Rp 3.000.000 (Basic Only); II - Rp 5,000,000.00 (Basic & Intermediate / Advanced Only) & III - 7.500,000.00 (Basic-Intermediate-Advanced)
New Requests: Intermediate - Advanced (1) Rp 5.000.000,00.
Advanced (II + III) = Rp 5.000.000,00

MONEY BACK GUARANTEE 100% IF THE SYSTEMS FAILED

CTA akan mengajarkan peserta workshop untuk mengetahui 3 W (What = apa yang dibeli dari 420 saham di BEI yang memiliki prospek kenaikan); (Where = di posisi berapa entry dan exit); (When = kapan kita mengetahui target Short Term hingga Long Term - Target waktu untuk exit posisi sesuai dengan reward 5 : risk 1) sesuai kebutuhan dan waktu yang diperlukan yang bisa dilakukan untuk intraday swing trading, short sell, gap trading, speculative trading, buy & hold hingga investasi 1-5-10 tahun.

CTA dapat dilakukan dengan platform: ChartNexus, Meta Trader (The Most Recommended Free), Metastock, Reuters, Bloomberg, Finance.yahoo.com, amibroker, RTI, Esmart, IQplus.

Bagi yang berminat untuk mengikuti Workshop / Training CTA dapat menghubungi melalui email (a_zakarias@yahoo.com) / by SMS (081319611900 an. Andri Zakarias S).

Introduction to Technical Analysis

    * History of Technical Analysis
    * Basics of Technical Analysis
    * Supply/Demand Philosophy

Reversal/Continuation Patterns
    * Dow Theory, Old and New
    * Head and Shoulders
    * Triangles, Wedges
    * Rectangles, Pennants
    * Measurement Rules
    * Double/Triple Tops and Bottoms
    * Diamonds, Climaxes
    * Cases

Trend Analysis/Momentum
    * Definition of Trends
    * Speedlines, Fans, Channels
    * Support/Resistance
    * Saucers, Gaps
    * Moving averages, double, triple
    * Envelopes, Bollinger bands
    * ROC, MACD, RSI, other stochastics
    * Trading: day, swing, asset allocation, investing
    * Cases

Relative Strength and Volume
    * Relative Strength
    * DMI
    * Volume: OBV and other measures
    * Money flow
    * Introduction to option strategies with technical analysis
    * Statistical and probability concepts
    * Cases

Moving averages
    * Double crossover, Japanese crosses, Triple crossovers, envelope model
    * Bollinger Bands

Intermarket Analysis
    * Fixed Income, Commodities, and Currencies
    * Ten-Year Treasury Yields
    * CRB Index
    * Continuous Commodity Index
    * Journal of Commerce Index
    * US Dollar, British Pound, Euro, Yen
    * Cross Currencies

Point and Figure and Gann; Elliott Wave Theory
    * Point and figure construction methods
      -The Wheelan method
      -The Cohen approach
    * Reversal criteria
    * Measurement tools, such as horizontal, vertical, pole
    * GANN, Wyckoff
    * Elliott Wave: characteristics and measurement objectives
    * Patterns and ratio aspects
    * Fibonacci numbers & Sequence
    * Cases

Others Analysis:
Market Profile, Volume Bar, NeoWave

Cycles/Sentiment and Behavioral
    * Types of cycles: including Kondratieff, Kitchin and others
    * Cycles concepts: summation, harmonicity, synchronicity, proportionality
    * Classifications
    * Use with other technical indicators
    * Creation of technical patterns with cycles
    * Bubbles - USA, Japan, China
    * Sentiment surveys: traders and investors
    * Sentiment indicators: levels, money flows, supply/demand, fear/greed measures
    * Put/call ratio
    * Short index
    * Insider activity
    * TED, VIX
    * Behavioral concepts

Japanese Candlesticks and Ethics/Professional Management
    * Candle types
    * Candle sequences
    * Blending with western charts
    * Intensity, continuation, reversal types - special names, such as Marubozu, Spinning Tops, Doji, Dragon Fly, Hamari, Hanging Man, etc.
    * Blending/engulfing
    * Support/resistance
    * Candles and traditional charts
    * Ethics and professionalism
    * Portfolio management
    * Cases
    * Special statistical and portfolio theory appendix

Portfolio Management
    * Technical Analysis Tools for Sentiment
    * Efficient Market Considerations
    * Short versus long trading strategies
    * Risk tools
    * Advanced Derivative Use and Technical Analysis

Style Strategy and Sector Analysis
    * Large-Cap vs. Small-Cap
    * Large-Cap vs. Mid-Cap
    * Mid-Cap vs. Small Cap
    * Growth vs. Value

Additional:

Fallen knives
Dead cat bounces
Managing winning/losing positions
Combo MA (golden cross, silver cross, dead cross), Fibonacci (6 style), Pivots (2 in 3 style), Zig zag, Fractal, TD Wave, Kaufman Pattern, Combo MACD.

Bonus:
* Equity Fundamental & Economy (Macro & Micro) Analysis
* Bandarmology (Saham/Forex/Indeks Futures)
* Hedge Fund Activity (Domestic & Foreign)
* Rekomendasi Top 9 saham harian selama 1 bulan (IPO, Blue Chip & Gorengan)
* Analisa Technical & Sentiment Saham / Forex / Commodity (Investment) 2011-2015.

Samples of My CTA of 11 Analysis 2005 -2010:
Technical Analysis Chart Saham: http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/search/label/Technical%20Chart%20Saham

Saham: http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/10/welcome-to-club-of-3500-12-10-cautious.html

Elliott Wave GSM (19 Position Profit berturut-turut) : http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/search/label/Elliott%20Wave%20GSM

TD Wave:http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/search/label/Volatility%20Index

Market Profile:http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/search/label/Market%20Profile

Volume Bar: http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/search/label/Volume%20Bar

Volatility Index: http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/search/label/Volatility%20Index

Prospek Saham Indonesia & Investasi Global 2010 (Equity Outlook & Global Investment 2010.
Download File

Workshop Technical Analysis Stock & Futures The 1st Half 2010 (IHSG, DJIA, EUR-USD, GBP-USD, HSI)
Download File

Global Market Outlook 2009
http://www.ziddu.com/download/12121117/GlobalMarketsOutlook2009.pdf.html

Workshop Saham IHSG & Global Market Outlook 2nd Half 2009
http://www.ziddu.com/download/12121316/WorkshopProspekIHSGPasarGlobalH22009.pdf.html

Pandangan Pasar Finansial Global 2008
http://www.ziddu.com/download/12121149/PandanganPasarFinansialGlobal2008-BisnisIndonesia.pdf.html

Special Reports Investment Global H2 2005
http://www.ziddu.com/download/12121176/SpecialReportsH22005.pdf.html

@Courtesy of Gallery Saham Mania: globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com

Nothing Can't Stop Us on Global 3ull Attack . Honey Moon is Not Over Yet

IHSG
Buy 3.580 target 3.710 stop 50p.
* Upgrade target Akhir Tahun menjadi 3.850 (berpotensi upgrade ke 4.040 pada 30 Desember 2010)/ 4.200 di H1 2011.

(The 1st Upgrade in Indonesia & in process of Super Bull of 2010 - 2012 - 2015 only in Special Technical Analysis BNI Securities).

IHSG: 1 jam & 4 jam stochastic menunjukkan signal koreksi terbatas, meski daily chart menunjukkan dengan buying power masih dominan, dalam jalur Super Bull, belum ada signal top reversal.
Liat TD Wave 10/08: http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=6833542981102286398&postID=5218895147221569420

Track Record IHSG (since end of March 2010) : 65 Recommendations (48 Profits (19 x profit berturut-turut); 4 Break Even: 13 Loss) = (+20p+45p+73p+53+60p+45p+63p+0p+27p+50p-20p+13p+40p+45p+40p+29p-30p-154p-75p+80p+26p+0p+28p+80p+62p+53p+20p+0p+70p+99p+135p-20p-30p+50p+60p+100p+0p-55p-30p+59p-30p-20p-30p-30p+45p+70p+74p+57p+35p+50p+50p-30P+20P+20P+35P+54P+60P+40P+58P+3P+50P+5P+55P). Total : Net +1981 points = Average 30.47 point.

DJIA
Buy 11.025 target 11.250 stop 50p, Sell breakout 10.940 target 10.750 stop 50P.

Track record (since end of March 2010) : 54 Recommendations (32 Profits: 22 Loss) (-65p-30p+370p + 280p+190p-30p+230p-30p+120p+200p-40p+280p+198p+205p+110p-30p+70p+200p+150p-50p-30p-30p-30p+145p-50p-30p+175p-50p-50p-60p-50p-50p+225p+100p-55p+100p+380p+220p+230p-100p-60p+265p+20p+80P+90P+130P-30P+50P-50P-50P+100P+20P+225P+250P+180P-50P-50P-50P). Total Net +4123 points = Average +76.35 points/trade.

Rekomendasi Nikkei 225/Hang Seng/Shanghai:
http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/10/market-profile-ihsgnikkei-225hang_04.html

Kalender Ekonomi & Event Global (18 - 22 October 2010)

WIB = +11 Jam
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

US Earnings (18 - 22 Oct):
Monday include Citigroup, Halliburton, Hasbro and Phillips Electronics. IBM reports after the close. On Tuesday, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Coca-Cola, Johnson and Johnson, Bank of New York Mellon, Occidental Petroleum, Lockheed Martin, United Health and State Street report before the bell. Yahoo, the subject of takeover talk this past week, reports after the close, as does Sallie Mae, Stryker, Boston Scientific and Gilead.

Boeing, Morgan Stanley, United Technologies BlackRock, Wells Fargo, Genzyme, US Bancorp, St. Jude Medical, US Airways, Eaton and Delta Airlines are among those reporting Wednesday morning. EBay, E*Trade, Kinder Morgan, Netflix, Nobel Energy and Seagate report after the bell that day.

Thursday's reports include AT&T , Caterpillar Credit Suisse, McDonalds, Travelers, Southwest Airlines, Freeport McMoran, Hershey, Continental Airlines, UPS, Traveler's, Lilly, and Xerox. American Express, Amazon.com, Capital One and Chubb report after the bell. Verizon, Honeywell and Schlumberger report Friday.
CNBC.com