Tampil pada 03 Desember 2010 di Iverson School Business.
Berikutnya akan dirilis Market Outlook Saham & Pasar Global 2011 di blog ini di awal Januari 2011.
http://www.ziddu.com/download/12841228/Risk-RewardYearEnd2010Outlook.pdf.html
Monday, December 6, 2010
Welcome To The Club of 3.600-3.850 (06 - 12): Minor Correction Should Occured in Bull Trend
IHSG berpeluang terkoreksi berkat kinerja indeks saham regional Asia dan kondisi technical 1 jam yang bearish dan 4-jam yang overbought, di tengah meredanya sentimen dari dalam negeri (di tengah tekanan kepada BI untuk menaikkan suku bunga) dan isu negatif dari lemahnya data tenaga kerja AS (Payroll +39K, unemployment 9.8%) meski data ISM services tercatat diatas prediksi pasar, perubahan kebijakan moneter Cina dari pelonggaran menjadi pengetatan (mendorong spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga China di bulan ini) seharusnya masih memberikan support kepada IHSG dan indeks saham regional meski lajunya terbatas dan menunjukkan pola koreksi minor untuk akumulasi kembali menjelang liburan besok (07/12). Kenaikan harga komoditas saat ini, dimana harga minyak mencapai tertinggi 28 bulan hingga US$ 89/barel, dapat menopang kinerja IHSG hari ini dari sektor komoditas energi, agri, pertambangan batubara, logam.
IHSG akan diuntungkan oleh kinerja harga komoditas setelah harga minyak mencapai US$ 89/barel, seharusnya positif untuk saham komoditas metal (ANTM, TINS, INCO), coal (ADRO, PTBA, ITMG, BRAU, HRUM, BORN, BUMI), energy (PGAS, ENRG), cpo (LSIP, AALI, UNSP, BWPT), telekomunikasi (EXCL, TLKM), industri (ASII, GGRM, GJTL, CPIN, JPFA), konsumer (INDF, ICBP, MYOR), retail (MPPA, MAPI, RALS). IHSG diperkirakan dalam kisaran 3.670-3.730.
Cautious of Profit Taking:
Buy on weakness : KRAS & APLN. Buy on weakness: BJBR/BMRI/BBCA/BDMN/BTPN/BBRI/BNLI/BNGA), Buy ASII, UNTR, AALI), telekomunikasi (Sell on rally: TLKM, EXCL, TBIG, TOWR), infrastruktur (Hold: ADHI, PTPP, WIKA), komoditas (Buy : PGAS/TINS/ANTM/INCO/JPRS/GDST/NIKL), Buy: LSIP/SGRO/BWPT), Coal (Buy; ITMG/PTBA/BYAN/ADRO/DOID), Buy on weakness BUMI, BNBR - Buy on weakness: UNSP, ELTY, DEWA, ENRG, Buy on weakness BRAU. konsumer: Trading Buy LPKR/INTA/MEDC/BSDE/ICBP/INDF/UNVR/CPIN/JPFA/MAPI/MYOR
Saksikan Power Breakfast saham pilihan Rabu (08/12): 09.00-10.00 WIB, Dealing Room saham pilihan Kamis (09/12): 14.00-15.00 WIB & Movers & Shakers (10/12) Jam 19.00 - 20.00 WIB bersama analis PT. BNI Securities (NI) di Channel 95 MNC Bisnis (Indovision)
Close all position (04/08): Mayoritas profit diatas 15% sejak (19/07).
Indeks berpeluang menguat ke target 3.150 (target GSM di Q3 2010, tercapai 26/08) dan 3.400 (target GSM akhir tahun; direvisi menjadi 3.850 dari 3.550; jika tembus ke target 4.040. Analisa EW/Gann/Fibonacci).
08/11: Hold Buy BUVA (570/580) target 660/750/940/1050, selama ditutup diatas area 470/540 (Stop loss Done)
(22/10): 3 Metals: http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/10/trio-metals-upgrade-targets.html
Oct 21 2010, 9:40 AMAndri (guest): @MYOR: Buy 11.150 setelah breakout 11.100 target 13.400 stop loss dibawah 9700. (Reach Target Profit)
Oct 21 2010, 9:25 AMAndri (guest): @PTPP: Hold buy on breakout resist line 930 target 1.200 stop loss 880 (Stop loss done).
Oct 21 2010, 11:18 AMAndri (guest): @BTEK: wave koreksi 4 telah berakhir, jika breakout 485, Buy: 420-430 risk 350, target 485 - 620 (tercapai)/700 (3)/920 (long term).
Oct 20 2010, 2:32 PM: (Closed on 22/10): Buy on weakness (20/10-10.30 Wib): Hold TLKM (9.100), JPFA (3.400), CPIN (8.250), INDF (4.900), PGAS (4.100), BUMI (2.275), MNCN (560), SOBI (3.050), BHIT (128). Buy LPKR 580, BSDE 890 target Profit Taking Jumat (22/10), risk 5%.
Sep 2 2010, 4:07 PM Gallery Saham Mania
HOLD BUY (liat chat roll): MASA: Buy breakout Fibo (23/09) at 380 target 440/500/MEDC: Buy (22/09) 3.150 target 3.400 (tercapai)/4.400 stop loss dibawah 2950/Buy ASII (21/09) 55.600 target 63.000/80.000/@ENRG Buy Breakout 125 (22/09) target 190/Buy (21/09) BWPT @910 target 1.030 (tercapai)-1.250/ ELSA @345 target 370-420/BUMI @1.960 (20/09) target 2.150 (tercapai)/2.350 (tercapai)/ CPIN @6.900 (15/09) target 10.350/ PGAS @ 3.950-4.000 (15/09) target 4.700/5.800/INDF @5.100 (15/09) 6.050-7.350/INCO @4.475 (15/09) target 5.300/6.500 (Upgrade)/BRAU (19/08) @420 & 455 tgt 485-500 (Tercapai)/JPFA @2.225 (A) tgt 3.000-3.500 (tercapai)/SOBI @2.325 tgt 2.750-3.200 (tercapai)/BLTA @240 tgt 265-280 (tercapai)/UNVR @16900 tgt 18.500/GJTL @1.760 tgt 2300 (Tercapai)/RALS @840 tgt 1050-1400/MAPI @1130 tgt 1625 (tercapai)-2285/BBKP @730 tgt 850-930/TPIA @2600 (-10%)/MYOR @8200 tgt 10.800 (tercapai)/BNGA @1260 tgt 1340 (Tercapai)-1.560/JSMR @2.925 tgt 3.325 (Tercapai)/BUMI @1.655 (A) tgt 1.780-1.840 (tercapai)/ADRO @1.825 (A) tgt 1.940 (tercapai). Stop loss < -7%.
Check out my blog (Gallery Saham Mania): globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
IHSG akan diuntungkan oleh kinerja harga komoditas setelah harga minyak mencapai US$ 89/barel, seharusnya positif untuk saham komoditas metal (ANTM, TINS, INCO), coal (ADRO, PTBA, ITMG, BRAU, HRUM, BORN, BUMI), energy (PGAS, ENRG), cpo (LSIP, AALI, UNSP, BWPT), telekomunikasi (EXCL, TLKM), industri (ASII, GGRM, GJTL, CPIN, JPFA), konsumer (INDF, ICBP, MYOR), retail (MPPA, MAPI, RALS). IHSG diperkirakan dalam kisaran 3.670-3.730.
Cautious of Profit Taking:
Buy on weakness : KRAS & APLN. Buy on weakness: BJBR/BMRI/BBCA/BDMN/BTPN/BBRI/BNLI/BNGA), Buy ASII, UNTR, AALI), telekomunikasi (Sell on rally: TLKM, EXCL, TBIG, TOWR), infrastruktur (Hold: ADHI, PTPP, WIKA), komoditas (Buy : PGAS/TINS/ANTM/INCO/JPRS/GDST/NIKL), Buy: LSIP/SGRO/BWPT), Coal (Buy; ITMG/PTBA/BYAN/ADRO/DOID), Buy on weakness BUMI, BNBR - Buy on weakness: UNSP, ELTY, DEWA, ENRG, Buy on weakness BRAU. konsumer: Trading Buy LPKR/INTA/MEDC/BSDE/ICBP/INDF/UNVR/CPIN/JPFA/MAPI/MYOR
Saksikan Power Breakfast saham pilihan Rabu (08/12): 09.00-10.00 WIB, Dealing Room saham pilihan Kamis (09/12): 14.00-15.00 WIB & Movers & Shakers (10/12) Jam 19.00 - 20.00 WIB bersama analis PT. BNI Securities (NI) di Channel 95 MNC Bisnis (Indovision)
Close all position (04/08): Mayoritas profit diatas 15% sejak (19/07).
Indeks berpeluang menguat ke target 3.150 (target GSM di Q3 2010, tercapai 26/08) dan 3.400 (target GSM akhir tahun; direvisi menjadi 3.850 dari 3.550; jika tembus ke target 4.040. Analisa EW/Gann/Fibonacci).
Close all position (04/08): Mayoritas profit diatas 15% sejak (19/07).
08/11: Hold Buy BUVA (570/580) target 660/750/940/1050, selama ditutup diatas area 470/540 (Stop loss Done)
(22/10): 3 Metals: http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/10/trio-metals-upgrade-targets.html
Oct 21 2010, 9:40 AMAndri (guest): @MYOR: Buy 11.150 setelah breakout 11.100 target 13.400 stop loss dibawah 9700. (Reach Target Profit)
Oct 21 2010, 9:25 AMAndri (guest): @PTPP: Hold buy on breakout resist line 930 target 1.200 stop loss 880 (Stop loss done).
Oct 21 2010, 11:18 AMAndri (guest): @BTEK: wave koreksi 4 telah berakhir, jika breakout 485, Buy: 420-430 risk 350, target 485 - 620 (tercapai)/700 (3)/920 (long term).
Oct 20 2010, 2:32 PM: (Closed on 22/10): Buy on weakness (20/10-10.30 Wib): Hold TLKM (9.100), JPFA (3.400), CPIN (8.250), INDF (4.900), PGAS (4.100), BUMI (2.275), MNCN (560), SOBI (3.050), BHIT (128). Buy LPKR 580, BSDE 890 target Profit Taking Jumat (22/10), risk 5%.
Sep 2 2010, 4:07 PM Gallery Saham Mania
HOLD BUY (liat chat roll): MASA: Buy breakout Fibo (23/09) at 380 target 440/500/MEDC: Buy (22/09) 3.150 target 3.400 (tercapai)/4.400 stop loss dibawah 2950/Buy ASII (21/09) 55.600 target 63.000/80.000/@ENRG Buy Breakout 125 (22/09) target 190/Buy (21/09) BWPT @910 target 1.030 (tercapai)-1.250/ ELSA @345 target 370-420/BUMI @1.960 (20/09) target 2.150 (tercapai)/2.350 (tercapai)/ CPIN @6.900 (15/09) target 10.350/ PGAS @ 3.950-4.000 (15/09) target 4.700/5.800/INDF @5.100 (15/09) 6.050-7.350/INCO @4.475 (15/09) target 5.300/6.500 (Upgrade)/BRAU (19/08) @420 & 455 tgt 485-500 (Tercapai)/JPFA @2.225 (A) tgt 3.000-3.500 (tercapai)/SOBI @2.325 tgt 2.750-3.200 (tercapai)/BLTA @240 tgt 265-280 (tercapai)/UNVR @16900 tgt 18.500/GJTL @1.760 tgt 2300 (Tercapai)/RALS @840 tgt 1050-1400/MAPI @1130 tgt 1625 (tercapai)-2285/BBKP @730 tgt 850-930/TPIA @2600 (-10%)/MYOR @8200 tgt 10.800 (tercapai)/BNGA @1260 tgt 1340 (Tercapai)-1.560/JSMR @2.925 tgt 3.325 (Tercapai)/BUMI @1.655 (A) tgt 1.780-1.840 (tercapai)/ADRO @1.825 (A) tgt 1.940 (tercapai). Stop loss < -7%.
Check out my blog (Gallery Saham Mania): globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Nothing Can't Stop Us on Global 3ull Attack * Cautious On Profit-Taking Ahead of Holiday (2)
IHSG
Buy 3.670 target 3.750 stop di 3.630.
Dec 1 2010, 1:40 PM. @IHSG: Hold Buy 3.580 target 3.750, stop loss 3.680 = Done = Profit +100 Point
* Upgrade target Akhir Tahun menjadi 3.850 (berpotensi upgrade ke 4.040 pada 30 Desember 2010)/ 4.200 di H1 2011.
(The 1st Upgrade in Indonesia & in process of Super Bull of 2010 - 2012 - 2015 only in Special Technical Analysis BNI Securities & BNI Securities Market Outlook 2011).
IHSG: 1 jam & 4jam menunjukkan crossover buy dan daily chart (3-10 day MA dead cross) menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas dengan buying power meningkat, siap untuk attack rebound ke 3.720/3.750/3.777 (delay) karena masih dalam jalur Super Bull, belum ada signal top reversal.
(The 1st Upgrade in Indonesia & in process of Super Bull of 2010 - 2012 - 2015 only in Special Technical Analysis BNI Securities & BNI Securities Market Outlook 2011).
Liat TD Wave 10/08: http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=6833542981102286398&postID=5218895147221569420
Track Record IHSG (since end of March 2010) : 72 Recommendations (55 Profits: 1 (sebelumnya 26 x profit berturut-turut); 4 Break Even: 13 Loss) = (+20p+45p+73p+53+60p+45p+63p+0p+27p+50p-20p+13p+40p+45p+40p+29p-30p-154p-75p+80p+26p+0p+28p+80p+62p+53p+20p+0p+70p+99p+135p-20p-30p+50p+60p+100p+0p-55p-30p+59p-30p-20p-30p-30p+45p+70p+74p+57p+35p+50p+50p-30P+20P+20P+35P+54P+60P+40P+58P+3P+50P+5P+55P+5P+55P+23P+60P+15P-45P+100P). Total : Net +2184 points = Average 30.41 point.
DJIA
(23-11) Hold Buy 11.000 & Hold Buy 11.100 stop 11.200 target 11.300.
(02/12) Hold Buy breakout 11.280 target 11.600 stop 50p
Signal 1 jam & 4 jam bearish dan berpotensi bearish continuatoon, daily masih dalam trend 3ullish meski dengan selling power yang dominan dengan stochastic crossover sell.
Track record (since end of March 2010) : 60 Recommendations (33 Profits: 27 Loss) (-65p-30p+370p + 280p+190p-30p+230p-30p+120p+200p-40p+280p+198p+205p+110p-30p+70p+200p+150p-50p-30p-30p-30p+145p-50p-30p+175p-50p-50p-60p-50p-50p+225p+100p-55p+100p+380p+220p+230p-100p-60p+265p+20p+80P+90P+130P-30P+50P-50P-50P+100P+20P+225P+250P+180P-50P-50P-50P-50P+165P-50P-50P-50P-50P+170P). Total Net +4258 points = Average +76.35 points/trade.
Rekomendasi Nikkei 225/Hang Seng/Shanghai:
http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/10/market-profile-ihsgnikkei-225hang_04.html
@Courtesy of Globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Sunday, December 5, 2010
Kalender Ekonomi & Event Global (06 - 10 Desember 2010)
WIB: +12 Jam
Kalender Ekonomi & Event Global
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Week Ahead: Markets at the Mercy of Washington and Europe
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40499882
Week Ahead: Trade Deficit in U.S. Probably Little Changed in October as Exports Rise
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-05/trade-deficit-in-u-s-probably-little-changed-in-october-as-exports-rise.html
Crude Oil Heads for Biggest Weekly Gain in a Month on U.S. Economy Outlook
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-03/oil-trims-losses-to-trade-near-two-year-high-on-economic-recovery-optimism.html
Palm Oil Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in 5 Months on China Usage
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-03/palm-oil-posts-biggest-weekly-gain-in-5-months-on-china-usage.html
Gold May Gain Next Week on European Debt, Korean Concerns, Survey Shows
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-03/gold-may-gain-next-week-on-european-debt-korean-concerns-survey-shows.html
Kalender Ekonomi & Event Global
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php
Week Ahead: Markets at the Mercy of Washington and Europe
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40499882
Week Ahead: Trade Deficit in U.S. Probably Little Changed in October as Exports Rise
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-05/trade-deficit-in-u-s-probably-little-changed-in-october-as-exports-rise.html
Crude Oil Heads for Biggest Weekly Gain in a Month on U.S. Economy Outlook
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-03/oil-trims-losses-to-trade-near-two-year-high-on-economic-recovery-optimism.html
Palm Oil Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in 5 Months on China Usage
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-03/palm-oil-posts-biggest-weekly-gain-in-5-months-on-china-usage.html
Gold May Gain Next Week on European Debt, Korean Concerns, Survey Shows
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-03/gold-may-gain-next-week-on-european-debt-korean-concerns-survey-shows.html
Update Weekend Stories
Euro’s Worst to Come as Best Forecasters See Crisis Spreading
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5YxlrnGt1WY&pos=6
Indonesia Stocks: Astra Agro Lestari, Indofood CBP, Matahari
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-03/indonesia-stocks-astra-agro-lestari-matahari-putra-timah.html
Astra, Bumi Resources, Matahari Putra: Indonesia Equity Preview
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-03/astra-bumi-resources-matahari-putra-indonesia-equity-preview.html
Indonesia Keeps Benchmark Interest Rate at Record Low, Risking Credibility
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-03/indonesia-keeps-benchmark-interest-rate-at-record-low-risking-credibility.html
Stocks' Rally Set to Run as Fear Fades
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40509944
Market Pro: Beware China’s Coming Correction?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40497262
Oil & Gold Next Week
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1681277330&play=1
Cramer: This Secular Trend Will Continue Through 2011
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40495651
CNBC.com Market Outlook
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1681388918&play=1
China Announces Shift to 'Prudent' Monetary Policy
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40486747
Keep or sell inherited gold coins?
http://www.bankrate.com/finance/investing/keep-or-sell-inherited-gold-coins.aspx
Euro May Reach $1.25 in 2011 Ichimoku, Fibonacci Show: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-03/euro-may-reach-1-25-in-2011-ichimoku-fibonacci-show-technical-analysis.html
Banks Join S&P 500 Rally in Bullish Sign: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aPo6jjT5AIRs
Yen May Advance to 81.19 Per Dollar, RBC's Davis Says: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-30/yen-may-advance-to-81-19-per-dollar-rbc-s-davis-says-technical-analysis.html
Branson Says Oil May Hit $200 a Barrel Without New Clean-Energy Policies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-05/branson-says-oil-may-hit-200-a-barrel-without-new-clean-energy-policies.html
China Should Consider Increasing Gold Reserves, Central Bank Adviser Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-03/china-should-consider-increasing-gold-reserves-to-boost-trade-in-the-yuan.html
http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a5YxlrnGt1WY&pos=6
Indonesia Stocks: Astra Agro Lestari, Indofood CBP, Matahari
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-03/indonesia-stocks-astra-agro-lestari-matahari-putra-timah.html
Astra, Bumi Resources, Matahari Putra: Indonesia Equity Preview
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-03/astra-bumi-resources-matahari-putra-indonesia-equity-preview.html
Indonesia Keeps Benchmark Interest Rate at Record Low, Risking Credibility
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-03/indonesia-keeps-benchmark-interest-rate-at-record-low-risking-credibility.html
Stocks' Rally Set to Run as Fear Fades
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40509944
Market Pro: Beware China’s Coming Correction?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40497262
Oil & Gold Next Week
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1681277330&play=1
Cramer: This Secular Trend Will Continue Through 2011
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40495651
CNBC.com Market Outlook
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1681388918&play=1
China Announces Shift to 'Prudent' Monetary Policy
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40486747
Keep or sell inherited gold coins?
http://www.bankrate.com/finance/investing/keep-or-sell-inherited-gold-coins.aspx
Euro May Reach $1.25 in 2011 Ichimoku, Fibonacci Show: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-03/euro-may-reach-1-25-in-2011-ichimoku-fibonacci-show-technical-analysis.html
Banks Join S&P 500 Rally in Bullish Sign: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aPo6jjT5AIRs
Yen May Advance to 81.19 Per Dollar, RBC's Davis Says: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-30/yen-may-advance-to-81-19-per-dollar-rbc-s-davis-says-technical-analysis.html
Branson Says Oil May Hit $200 a Barrel Without New Clean-Energy Policies
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-05/branson-says-oil-may-hit-200-a-barrel-without-new-clean-energy-policies.html
China Should Consider Increasing Gold Reserves, Central Bank Adviser Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-03/china-should-consider-increasing-gold-reserves-to-boost-trade-in-the-yuan.html
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