The Combination of Technical-Analysis & Astrolo9y (CTA)

Blog milik Andri Zakarias Siregar, Analis, Trader, Investor & Trainer (Fundamental/Technical/Flowtist/Bandarmologi: Saham/FX/Commodity), berpengalaman 14 tahun. Narasumber: Berita 1 First Media, Channel 95 MNC(Indovision), MetroTV, ANTV, Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Investor Today, Tempo, Trust, Media Indonesia, Bisnis Indonesia, Seputar Indonesia, Kontan, Harian Jakarta, PasFM, Inilah.com, AATI-IFTA *** Semoga analisa CTA & informasi bermanfaat. Happy Zhuan & Success Trading. Good Luck.

Monday, December 20, 2010

Welcome To The Club of 3.600-3.850 (20 - 12): The Bull is In The House

IHSG diperkirakan akan melanjutkan momentum kenaikan di tengah kondisi pasar yang very oversold, munculnya sentimen positif dari di upgradenya sektor perbankan oleh Moodys, net sell investor asing menurun dari Rp 1 triliun (15/16 Des) menjadi Rp 411 miliar, murahnya saham unggulan baik secara fundamental & technical, membaiknya situasi geopolitik & ekonomi global, penguatan harga komoditas (minyak & emas), kemungkinan besar penyesuaian posisi menjelang akhir tahun di pasar Indonesia & Quardruple witching di AS telah berakhir,hingga ditundanya pelaksanaan pembatasan BBM menjadi akhir Maret 2011 telah meredakan kekhawatiran terhadap isu inflasi, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan (strong support 3.529/3.500) pada hari ini dan pekan ini. Sektor komoditas batubara (DOID/BUMI/ITMG), infrastruktur (TLKM), property (SMRA, BSDE. LPKR, ASRI), CPO (AALI, BWPT, LSIP, UNSP).
IHSG diperkirakan dalam kisaran 3.540-3.620.

Indonesia Stocks May Rise 20% by End-2011 on Earnings, Credit Suisse Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-19/indonesia-stocks-may-rise-20-by-end-2011-on-earnings-credit-suisse-says.html

Indonesia Stocks to Rise as Inflation Risk Overstated,Panin Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aOtCxLBOMeL0

Buy: KRAS/APLN/BORN/HRUM/MIDI/WINS
Speculative buy: BBRI/BBTN/BBNI/BJBR/BMRI/BBCA/BDMN/BTPN/BBRI/BNLI
Speculaltive Buy: ASII/UNTR, ICBP/INDF
Buy: Telekomunikasi: ISAT EXCL, TBIG, TOWR
Trading Buy: infrastruktur: ADHI, PTPP, WIKA
Buy : PGAS/TINS/ANTM/INCO/JPRS/GDST/NIKL
Speculative Buy: LSIP/SGRO/BWPT/AALI
Trading Buy & Hold (09/12): Coal ITMG/PTBA/BYAN/ADRO/DOID/BRAU
Buy: BUMI, BNBR, UNSP, ELTY, DEWA, ENRG
Buy; AKRA/ASRI/DGIK/META/MLPL/MPPA/ELSA/BNLI/BNGA/LPKR/INTA/MEDC/BSDE/UNVR/CPIN/JPFA/MAPI/MYOR/GJTL
Trading Buy : BSIM/TLKM/

Saksikan Power Breakfast saham pilihan Rabu (08/12): 09.00-10.00 WIB, Dealing Room saham pilihan Kamis (16/12): 14.00-15.00 WIB & Movers & Shakers (17/12) Jam 19.00 - 20.00 WIB bersama analis PT. BNI Securities (NI) di Channel 95 MNC Bisnis (Indovision)

Indeks berpeluang menguat ke target 3.150 (target GSM di Q3 2010, tercapai 26/08) dan 3.400 (target GSM akhir tahun; direvisi menjadi 3.850 dari 3.550; jika tembus ke target 4.040. Analisa EW/Gann/Fibonacci).

BNI SECURITIES DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 20-12 (Buy: BUMI/LPKR/INDY/BJBR)

Technical Chart Saham CTA: Hold BUY (09/11) SMCB (2.525).(19/11): AALI (24.000/24.400)/DOID (1.090)/ITMG (49.450)/CNKO (153)/BRAU (510).(22/11): PBRX (1.270-1.330)/ MEDC (3.600)/ADRO (2.450). (23/11): HEXA (7100)/MASA (320)/JSMR (3.500). (24/11) KRAS (1220)/BJBR (1520-1540)/BNII (650) = Done

Technical Chart Saham Periode Nov - Des 2010 (link di sebelah kanan bawah): Hold Buy (37 Saham): AALI/ADRO/BUMI/ENRG/UNSP/BLTA/MASA/PBRX/BRNA/BNII/TRUB/KRAS/BNBR/HEXA/JSMR/BRAU/DOID/CNKO/ITMG/SIPD/SMCB/CMNP/DGIK/ELSA/CPIN/BNGA/MLPL/TRUB/DILD/PNBN/SMMA/SOBI/TPIA/SMMA/TLKM/ASII/BUMI. Rec Loss (7 saham): ASII/BJBR/SMCB/MEDC/POLY/BHIT/ICBP.

Close all position (04/08): Mayoritas profit diatas 15% sejak (19/07).

From Chat Roll:

Close all position (04/08): Mayoritas profit diatas 15% sejak (19/07).

Nov 10 2010, 3:55 PM. @KRAS: Buy 1.250 done. Hold target 1340 (tercapai)/1420 (tercapai)/1670. Risk dibawah 1.100

08/11: Hold Buy BUVA (570/580) target 660/750/940/1050, selama ditutup diatas area 470/540 (Stop loss Done)
(22/10): 3 Metals: http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/10/trio-metals-upgrade-targets.html

Oct 21 2010, 9:40 AMAndri (guest): @MYOR: Buy 11.150 setelah breakout 11.100 target 13.400 stop loss dibawah 9700. (Reach Target Profit)
Oct 21 2010, 9:25 AMAndri (guest): @PTPP: Hold buy on breakout resist line 930 target 1.200 stop loss 880 (Stop loss done).
Oct 21 2010, 11:18 AMAndri (guest): @BTEK: wave koreksi 4 telah berakhir, jika breakout 485, Buy: 420-430 risk 350, target 485 - 620 (tercapai)/700 (3)/920 (long term).

Oct 20 2010, 2:32 PM: (Closed on 22/10): Buy on weakness (20/10-10.30 Wib): Hold TLKM (9.100), JPFA (3.400), CPIN (8.250), INDF (4.900), PGAS (4.100), BUMI (2.275), MNCN (560), SOBI (3.050), BHIT (128). Buy LPKR 580, BSDE 890 target Profit Taking Jumat (22/10), risk 5%.

Sep 2 2010, 4:07 PM Gallery Saham Mania
HOLD BUY (liat chat roll): MASA: Buy breakout Fibo (23/09) at 380 target 440/500/MEDC: Buy (22/09) 3.150 target 3.400 (tercapai)/4.400 stop loss dibawah 2950/Buy ASII (21/09) 55.600 target 63.000/80.000/@ENRG Buy Breakout 125 (22/09) target 190/Buy (21/09) BWPT @910 target 1.030 (tercapai)-1.250/ ELSA @345 target 370-420/BUMI @1.960 (20/09) target 2.150 (tercapai)/2.350 (tercapai)/ CPIN @6.900 (15/09) target 10.350/ PGAS @ 3.950-4.000 (15/09) target 4.700/5.800/INDF @5.100 (15/09) 6.050-7.350/INCO @4.475 (15/09) target 5.300/6.500 (Upgrade)/BRAU (19/08) @420 & 455 tgt 485-500 (Tercapai)/JPFA @2.225 (A) tgt 3.000-3.500 (tercapai)/SOBI @2.325 tgt 2.750-3.200 (tercapai)/BLTA @240 tgt 265-280 (tercapai)/UNVR @16900 tgt 18.500/GJTL @1.760 tgt 2300 (Tercapai)/RALS @840 tgt 1050-1400/MAPI @1130 tgt 1625 (tercapai)-2285/BBKP @730 tgt 850-930/TPIA @2600 (-10%)/MYOR @8200 tgt 10.800 (tercapai)/BNGA @1260 tgt 1340 (Tercapai)-1.560/JSMR @2.925 tgt 3.325 (Tercapai)/BUMI @1.655 (A) tgt 1.780-1.840 (tercapai)/ADRO @1.825 (A) tgt 1.940 (tercapai). Stop loss < -7%.

Check out my blog (Gallery Saham Mania): globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com

Nothing Can't Stop Us on Global 3ull Attack * The Initiation of Cautiuos Bull Attack

IHSG
Hold Buy 3.620 (16/12) target 3.750 stop 3.525 (revisi)
(17/12) Hold Buy 3.540 target 3.750 stop dibawah 3.500

Buy break 3.615 target 3.750 stop 50P.

* Upgrade target Akhir Tahun menjadi 3.850 (berpotensi upgrade ke 4.040 pada 30 Desember 2010)/ 4.200 di H1 2011

(The 1st Upgrade in Indonesia & in process of Super Bull of 2010 - 2012 - 2015 only in Special Technical Analysis BNI Securities & BNI Securities Market Outlook 2011).

Daily

4-Jam

IHSG: 1 jam & 4jam menunjukkan crossover bull dan daily chart menunjukkan oversold (stochastic very oversold sejak Juni 2010) dengan selling power mulai mereda, siap untuk attack rebound ke 3.614/3.750 karena masih dalam jalur Super Bull, belum ada signal top reversal.

Liat TD Wave 10/08: http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=6833542981102286398&postID=5218895147221569420

Track Record IHSG (since end of March 2010) : 74 Recommendations (55 Profits: 1 (sebelumnya 26 x profit berturut-turut); 4 Break Even: 15 Loss) = (+20p+45p+73p+53+60p+45p+63p+0p+27p+50p-20p+13p+40p+45p+40p+29p-30p-154p-75p+80p+26p+0p+28p+80p+62p+53p+20p+0p+70p+99p+135p-20p-30p+50p+60p+100p+0p-55p-30p+59p-30p-20p-30p-30p+45p+70p+74p+57p+35p+50p+50p-30P+20P+20P+35P+54P+60P+40P+58P+3P+50P+5P+55P+5P+55P+23P+60P+15P-45P+100P). Total : Net +2184 points = Average 30.41 point.

DJIA
(02/12) Hold Buy breakout 11.280 target 11.600 stop 10.400

Signal 1 jam & 4 jam bullish di area overbought, daily masih dalam trend 3ullish dengan kondisi overbought, meski buying power yang dominan, berpotensi koreksi dalam waktu dekat.

Track record (since end of March 2010) : 60 Recommendations (33 Profits: 27 Loss) (-65p-30p+370p + 280p+190p-30p+230p-30p+120p+200p-40p+280p+198p+205p+110p-30p+70p+200p+150p-50p-30p-30p-30p+145p-50p-30p+175p-50p-50p-60p-50p-50p+225p+100p-55p+100p+380p+220p+230p-100p-60p+265p+20p+80P+90P+130P-30P+50P-50P-50P+100P+20P+225P+250P+180P-50P-50P-50P-50P+165P-50P-50P-50P-50P+170P+300P+200P). Total Net +4758 points = Average +76.35 points/trade.

Rekomendasi Nikkei 225/Hang Seng/Shanghai:
http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/10/market-profile-ihsgnikkei-225hang_04.html

@Courtesy of Globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com