Welcome To The Club of 3.600-3.850 (27 - 12): Overbought Intraday vs Regional Upside

Potensi penurunan IHSG relatif terbatas hari ini dari faktor technical dan imbas kenaikan suku bunga China 25 bsp di akhir pekan lalu, minimnya sentimen positif dari dalam negeri, karena penguatan indeks saham regional, kenaikan harga minyak ($91/barel) dan coal ($124/mt) menopang kinerja saham di sektor komoditas (energi, coal) hari ini. Meskipun sektor perbankan, property, infrastruktur akan terbebani oleh spekulasi Bank Indonesia akan menaiikan suku bunga di awal tahun 2011 (Q1 2011), akan menahan laju IHSG untuk mencapai target 3.700-3.750 di akhir bulan ini.IHSG diperkirakan dalam kisaran 3.580-3.640.

Speculative Buy: KRAS/APLN/BORN/HRUM/MIDI/WINS/BRMS
Sell on rally: BBRI/BBTN/BBNI/BJBR/BMRI/BBCA/BDMN/BTPN/BBRI/BNLI/BNGA/BNLI
Buy on weakness: ASII/UNTR/AALI, ICBP/INDF 
Buy on weakness: Telekomunikasi: TLKM ISAT EXCL, TBIG, TOWR, TBIG
Buy on weakness: infrastruktur: ADHI, PTPP, WIKA
Buy on weakness : PGAS/TINS/ANTM/INCO/JPRS/GDST/NIKL
Buy on weakness: GZCO/BISI/LSIP/SGRO/BWPT
Buy & Hold (09/12): Coal ITMG/PTBA/BYAN/ADRO/DOID/BRAU
Buy on weakness:  BUMI, BNBR, UNSP, ELTY, DEWA, ENRG
Buy on weakness; MYOR/MAPI/JPFATINS/INCO/BMTR/MNCN/CPIN/GJTL/INDY/AKRA/ASRI/META/MLPL/MPPA/ELSA/LPKR/INTA/MEDC/BSDE/UNVR
Buy on weakness: property: ASRI/BSDE/SMRA/LPKR/DGIK/DILD/BKSL

Saksikan Power Breakfast saham pilihan Rabu (08/12): 09.00-10.00 WIB, Dealing Room saham pilihan Kamis (16/12): 14.00-15.00 WIB  & Movers & Shakers (17/12) Jam 19.00 - 20.00 WIB bersama analis PT. BNI Securities (NI) di Channel 95 MNC Bisnis (Indovision) 

Indeks berpeluang menguat ke target 3.150 (target GSM di Q3 2010, tercapai 26/08) dan 3.400 (target GSM akhir tahun; direvisi menjadi 3.850 dari 3.550; jika tembus ke target 4.040. Analisa EW/Gann/Fibonacci).

BNI SECURITIES DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 27-12 (SoS: SMGR/PBRX/Spec Buy: MAPI/JPFA) 

Technical Chart Saham CTA Sebelumnya: Hold BUY (09/11) SMCB (2.525).(19/11): AALI (24.000/24.400)/DOID (1.090)/ITMG (49.450)/CNKO (153)/BRAU (510).(22/11): PBRX (1.270-1.330)/ MEDC (3.600)/ADRO (2.450). (23/11): HEXA (7100)/MASA (320)/JSMR (3.500). (24/11) KRAS (1220)/BJBR (1520-1540)/BNII (650) = Done

Technical Chart Saham Periode Nov - Des 2010 (link di sebelah kanan bawah):  Total 61 Saham:
Hold Buy (49 Saham): AALI (24.200)/ADRO (2.400)/BUMI (2.850)BLTA (330)/MASA (320)/PBRX (1.270)/BNII (630-650)/KRAS (1.200)/BNBR (73)/JSMR (3.375)/BRAU (510)/CNKO (168)/ITMG (49.700)/SIPD (68)/ENRG (135)/UNSP (385)/ICBP (4.500-4.525)/SMCB (2.375-2.400)/BMTR (580-600)/CMNP (1.400)/DGIK (105-106)/ELSA (350)/MLPL (330-335)/TRUB (84/85)/SDRA (275)/DILD (410)/PNBN (1.120-1.130)/SOBI (3.300)/TPIA (3.000)/SMMA (1.980-2.000)/DOID (1.340-1.350)/TLKM (7.800)/ASII (49.650)/BUMI (2-2.850)/ADRO (2-2.500)/BMRI (6.250)/BBRI (10.000)/BBNI (3.650)/BDMN (5.600-5.650)/BBTN (1.570)/NIKL (420)/BWPT (1.150-1.160)/JPRS (560)/ADHI (900)/PTPP (750 & 780)/WIKA (690)/ELTY (155-158)/BHIT (160-163)
Rec Loss (12 saham): ASII/BRNA/BJBR/SMCB/MEDC/POLY/BHIT/ICBP/CPIN/HEXA/BNGA/MPPA.

Close all position (04/08): Mayoritas profit diatas 15% sejak (19/07).  
From Chat Roll:  

Close all position (04/08): Mayoritas profit diatas 15% sejak (19/07).

Nov 10 2010, 3:55 PM. @KRAS: Buy 1.250 done. Hold target 1340 (tercapai)/1420 (tercapai)/1670. Risk dibawah 1.100 

08/11: Hold Buy BUVA (570/580) target 660/750/940/1050, selama ditutup diatas area 470/540 (Stop loss Done)
(22/10): 3 Metals: http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/10/trio-metals-upgrade-targets.html

Oct 21 2010, 9:40 AMAndri (guest): @MYOR: Buy 11.150 setelah breakout 11.100 target 13.400 stop loss dibawah 9700. (Reach Target Profit)
Oct 21 2010, 9:25 AMAndri (guest): @PTPP: Hold buy on breakout resist line 930 target 1.200 stop loss 880 (Stop loss done).
Oct 21 2010, 11:18 AMAndri (guest): @BTEK: wave koreksi 4 telah berakhir, jika breakout 485, Buy: 420-430 risk 350, target 485 - 620 (tercapai)/700 (3)/920 (long term).

Oct 20 2010, 2:32 PM: (Closed on 22/10): Buy on weakness (20/10-10.30 Wib): Hold TLKM (9.100), JPFA (3.400), CPIN (8.250), INDF (4.900), PGAS (4.100), BUMI (2.275), MNCN (560), SOBI (3.050), BHIT (128). Buy LPKR 580, BSDE 890 target Profit Taking Jumat (22/10), risk 5%.

Sep 2 2010, 4:07 PM Gallery Saham Mania 
HOLD BUY (liat chat roll): MASA: Buy breakout Fibo (23/09) at 380 target 440/500/MEDC: Buy (22/09) 3.150 target 3.400 (tercapai)/4.400 stop loss dibawah 2950/Buy ASII (21/09) 55.600 target 63.000/80.000/@ENRG Buy Breakout 125 (22/09) target 190/Buy (21/09) BWPT @910 target 1.030 (tercapai)-1.250/ ELSA @345 target 370-420/BUMI @1.960 (20/09) target 2.150 (tercapai)/2.350 (tercapai)/ CPIN @6.900 (15/09) target 10.350/ PGAS @ 3.950-4.000 (15/09) target 4.700/5.800/INDF @5.100 (15/09) 6.050-7.350/INCO @4.475 (15/09) target 5.300/6.500 (Upgrade)/BRAU (19/08) @420 & 455 tgt 485-500 (Tercapai)/JPFA @2.225 (A) tgt 3.000-3.500 (tercapai)/SOBI @2.325 tgt 2.750-3.200 (tercapai)/BLTA @240 tgt 265-280 (tercapai)/UNVR @16900 tgt 18.500/GJTL @1.760 tgt 2300 (Tercapai)/RALS @840 tgt 1050-1400/MAPI @1130 tgt 1625 (tercapai)-2285/BBKP @730 tgt 850-930/TPIA @2600 (-10%)/MYOR @8200 tgt 10.800 (tercapai)/BNGA @1260 tgt 1340 (Tercapai)-1.560/JSMR @2.925 tgt 3.325 (Tercapai)/BUMI @1.655 (A) tgt 1.780-1.840 (tercapai)/ADRO @1.825 (A) tgt 1.940 (tercapai). Stop loss < -7%.

Check out my blog (Gallery Saham Mania): globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com 

@IHSG: Movers (Leading - Lagging) / Top Value 23-12 / Perfomance Indeks Asia & Global

Mover

Top Value (Esmart BNI Securities)

Indeks Asia

Indeks Global

Nothing Can't Stop Us on Global 3ull Attack * Golden Cross Signal To Support Bull Trend

IHSG  
Hold Buy 3.620 (16/12) &  target 3.750 stop dibawah 3.520.
(17/12) Hold Buy 3.540 target 3.750 stop dibawah 3.560  

* Upgrade target Akhir Tahun menjadi 3.850 (berpotensi upgrade ke 4.040 pada 30 Desember 2010)/ 4.200 di H1 2011

(The 1st Upgrade in Indonesia & in process of Super Bull of 2010 - 2012 - 2015 only in Special Technical Analysis BNI Securities & BNI Securities Market Outlook 2011).

Daily

IHSG: 1 jam &  4jam menunjukkan overbought , sementara daily chart juga menunjukkan oversold & Goldden Cross (stochastic very oversold sejak Juni 2010) dengan selling power mulai mereda,  siap untuk attack rebound ke 3.700/3.750 karena masih dalam jalur Super Bull, belum ada signal top reversal.  

Liat TD Wave 10/08: http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=6833542981102286398&postID=5218895147221569420    

Track Record IHSG (since end of March 2010) : 74 Recommendations (55 Profits: 1 (sebelumnya 26 x profit berturut-turut); 4 Break Even: 15 Loss) = (+20p+45p+73p+53+60p+45p+63p+0p+27p+50p-20p+13p+40p+45p+40p+29p-30p-154p-75p+80p+26p+0p+28p+80p+62p+53p+20p+0p+70p+99p+135p-20p-30p+50p+60p+100p+0p-55p-30p+59p-30p-20p-30p-30p+45p+70p+74p+57p+35p+50p+50p-30P+20P+20P+35P+54P+60P+40P+58P+3P+50P+5P+55P+5P+55P+23P+60P+15P-45P+100P). Total : Net +2184 points = Average 30.41 point.

DJIA  
(02/12) Hold Buy breakout 11.280 target 11.600 = Closed at 11.680 = Profit +400P
Sell 11.650 target 11.400 stop 50P, sell breakout 10.420 target 11.150 stop 50P 

Signal 1 jam & 4 jam bullish di area overbought, daily masih dalam trend 3ullish dengan crossover buy, buying power yang dominan, berpotensi menguat lebih lanjut.

Track record  (since end of March 2010) : 61 Recommendations (34 Profits: 27 Loss) (-65p-30p+370p + 280p+190p-30p+230p-30p+120p+200p-40p+280p+198p+205p+110p-30p+70p+200p+150p-50p-30p-30p-30p+145p-50p-30p+175p-50p-50p-60p-50p-50p+225p+100p-55p+100p+380p+220p+230p-100p-60p+265p+20p+80P+90P+130P-30P+50P-50P-50P+100P+20P+225P+250P+180P-50P-50P-50P-50P+165P-50P-50P-50P-50P+170P+300P+200P+200P). Total Net +4958 points = Average +76.35 points/trade.

Rekomendasi Nikkei 225/Hang Seng/Shanghai:
http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/10/market-profile-ihsgnikkei-225hang_04.html

@Courtesy of Globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com

Update Weekend Investment News

WIB: +12 Jam
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

Home Prices Probably Fell, Baring Weak Link in Accelerating U.S. Recovery
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-26/home-prices-probably-fell-baring-weak-link-in-accelerating-u-s-recovery.html

The Week Ahead   
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1707914718&play=1

China's Surprise Rate Hike May Roil Commodity Markets
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40810967

China's CIC Joins TPG-GIC's Group to Invest in Delta Dunia in Indonesia
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-26/china-s-cic-joins-tpg-gic-s-group-to-invest-in-delta-dunia-in-indonesia.html

Stocks Set for Best December Performance in a Decade
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40800866

Traders Ring in the Holidays but Worry About January
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40798553

Is Oil The Next Big Stock Market Story?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40794974

CNBC.com Market Outlook
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1707906820&play=1

Why Traders Doubt Santa Rally This Year
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40796256

Top 2011 Fears: Rates, Euro, Muni Default, Flash Crash
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40795098

S&P 500 `Vulnerable for Setback' After Rally, UBS Says: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-22/s-p-500-vulnerable-for-setback-after-rally-technical-analysis.html

Oil May Rise From Two-Year High on Outlook for U.S. Supply, Survey Shows
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-24/oil-may-rise-from-two-year-high-on-outlook-for-u-s-supply-survey-shows.html

Gold May Advance on Concern Debt Woes Will Continue, According to Survey
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-24/gold-may-advance-on-concern-debt-woes-will-continue-according-to-survey.html

Gold May Climb to $1,480 After Record, Barclays Says: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-22/gold-may-climb-to-1-480-after-record-barclays-says-technical-analysis.html

Oil May `Break Out' Toward $94 If Support at $87 Holds: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-20/oil-may-break-out-toward-94-if-support-at-87-holds-technical-analysis.html

Emerging Equity Funds Post First Outflows Since May
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-12-24/emerging-equity-funds-post-first-outflows-since-may-trimming-record-year.html

EWI: Similarities between Technical Analysis and Elliott Wave Analysis

Similarities between Technical Analysis and Elliott Wave Analysis
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/12/22/Similarities-between-Technical-Analysis-and-Elliott-Wave-Analysis-.aspx

"How to Forecast Gold and Silver Using the Wave Principle"
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/12/23/How-to-Forecast-Gold-and-Silver-Using-the-Wave-Principle.aspx

EUR/USD: China Says It Supports Euro Zone -- But the Euro Falls Anyway
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/12/23/EUR/USD-China-Says-It-Supports-Euro-Zone----But-the-Euro-Falls-Anyway.aspx

Crude Oil Case Study: Add Value to Your Energy
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/12/22/Crude-Oil-Case-Study-Add-Value-to-Your-Energy.aspx

Robert Prechter Dispels 10 Popular Investment Myths, Part VII
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/12/22/Robert-Prechter-Dispels-10-Popular-Investment-Myths,-Part-VII.aspx

The Municipal Debt Bomb is Ticking: When Will It Explode?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/12/22/The-Municipal-Debt-Bomb-is-Ticking-When-Will-It-Explode.aspx