Tuesday, August 2, 2011

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR FUNDAMENTAL & TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS 
U.S. stocks fell for a sixth day on Monday as time runs out for the government to pass a deal to avoid default and the economy shows further signs of stalling. Stocks tumbled in the first 30 minutes of trading after a report that said the pace of growth in the U.S. manufacturing sector slowed more than expected in July, according to the Institute for Supply Management. On the debt deal front, President Obama announced a compromise that would shrink the deficit by around $2.4 trillion in the next 10 years.

Dow Jones industrial average was down 0.09%. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 0.41%. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 0.43%.

DAILY OUTLOOK FOR TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 

By Anto and Tata
Dow Jones Newswire

ASIAN INDEX FUTURES
On Monday, HangsengFutures is forming a bearish inverted hammer pattern on its daily chart.Hangseng Futuresopened gap up more than 300 points and long positions continued more dominating until the close of trading. So that Hangseng Futuresmanage to below at the psychological level of 22,600. (MT)

Nikkei Futuresis forming a bearish engulfing pattern on its daily chart.Nikkei Futuresopened gap up 75 points and long positions going to happen in mid- Asian trading session. But short selling happened until the close of Asian trading session and this continues until entering the U.S. trading session, so the strong support at 9800 successfully passed.(MT)

KOSPI futures remains trading slightly sideways, still the gauge trades inside a rising price channel which its upper line is at 286.10 and its lower line is at 278.30. On  intraday basis, KOSPI futures tends to go upward with a firm break above the channel line  will place 289.25 as further upside target. Failure to penetrate the upper line will prolong current sideways movement. (TS)

FOREX
EURUSD is forming a bearish engulfing pattern on its daily chart.On Monday, euro failed to pass the highest level in the previous week at 1.4460, and closed below the psychological level at 1.4300. From the beginning, impulse to buyback occurs so it had touched the highest level approaching 1.4453. Entering the US session until the end of trading session today, euro started to short sell so that at the close of the movement below the psychological level at 1.4300. (MT)

USDCHF is forming a bearish hammer pattern on its daily chart. Swiss franc failed to penetrate resistant levels at 0.7990 again and during the U.S. trading session, Swiss franc had successfully passed the strong support level at 0.7860 and closed at 0.7834, so still scoring record its lowest close in more than 20 years again. (MT)

A long black marubozu appears on the daily chart of GBPUSD suggesting the pair will likely continue dropping. Moreover when the pair can firmly break below initial support at 1.6236 which will open the way to 1.6193. Potential rebound targets are seen at 1.6320 and 1.6364 (TS)

A long legged doji shows up on the daily chart of USDJPY. It would suggest a reversal after the pair declines and hitting a fresh low at 76.29. However, since the downward power is powerful, we should expect the pair will remain bearish with 76.29 as the initial support and initial upside rebound targets are located at 77.41 and 78.04. (TS)

COMMODITIES
XAUUSD is forming a bearish long legged body pattern on its daily chart. In the earlier trading session, Gold traded sideways and touching the low level at 1609.30. Entering US trading session, gold trade had buyback and touched the highest level that day at 1631.55 again but closed at 1619.20. (MT)

As seen on daily chart, oil tests 200-day SMA which is at 95.41. A firm break which  validated by a close well below the SMA, will lead oil to resume one-week bearish and test  an upward trend line at 91.20. Initial upside rebound target is at 96.61 (TS) 


TRADING STRATEGY
 
 


Monday, August 1, 2011

Warren Buffett Says ‘Bet Heavily' Against Double Recession

Buffett Says ‘Bet Heavily' Against Double Recession
(Bloomberg) -- Warren Buffett, chief executive officer of Berkshire Hathaway Inc., talks about the debt ceiling debate and the U.S. economy. Buffett, speaking with Betty Liu on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop," also discusses his views on acquisitions, the labor market and Todd Combs. (Source: Bloomberg)

View This Video: http://www.bloomberg.com/video/72153912/

Warren Buffett: Discussion on Equity Value-Added
Warren Buffett has mentioned that the economic case to justify the equity investments is that additional earnings above interest on fixed income securities (passive investments) would be derived via employment of managerial and entrepreneur skills in conjunction with that equity capital. People often think since an equity capital position is going along with greater risks than passive investing, it is entitled to a higher return. A “value-added” bonus from equity capital seems natural and certain.

Read More: http://www.gurufocus.com/news/139856/warren-buffett-discussion-on-equity-valueadded

What's Next for Warren Buffett?

NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- At the start of the week, the financial media wires buzzed with news that legendary investor George Soros was planning to return funds to outside investors. Heading forward, the investor will continue to manage his family's assets.

Read More: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Whats-Next-for-Warren-tsmf-1120408713.html?x=0

Laporan & Rumor Saham Indonesia 01-08 (Refresh)

Jual Rumah Mewah, Alam Sutera Raup Rp 146 Miliar dalam 2 Jam 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/08/01/170529/1694081/1016/jual-rumah-mewah-alam-sutera-raup-rp-146-miliar-dalam-2-jam?f9911023

Inilah Laba Bersih Emiten Pelayaran
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1757042/inilah-laba-bersih-emiten-pelayaran

Inilah Daftar 'Top Foreign Sell' Senin (1/8)
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1756802/inilah-daftar-top-foreign-sell-senin-18

Wow! Aset Investor Domestik Capai Rp1 Triliun
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1756972/wow-aset-investor-domestik-capai-rp1-triliun

Saham ENRG Terbanyak Dibeli Asing Senin (1/8)
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1757102/saham-enrg-terbanyak-dibeli-asing-senin-18

SSIA Revisi Target Pendapatan dan Laba 2011
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1756792/ssia-revisi-target-pendapatan-dan-laba-2011

'Debt Ceiling' AS Naik, Rupiah Tedongkrak 40 Poin
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1756822/debt-ceiling-as-naik-rupiah-tedongkrak-40-poin


Awal Puasa, IHSG Capai Rekor Baru. Net foreign buy sebesar Rp248 miliar
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1756602/awal-puasa-ihsg-capai-rekor-baru

Cetak Rekor Baru, IHSG Makin Dekat ke 4.200 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/08/01/160700/1694013/6/cetak-rekor-baru-ihsg-makin-dekat-ke-4200

Kapitalisasi Pasar 25 Saham Unggulan Tembus Rp 2.327 Triliun 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/08/01/161615/1694037/6/kapitalisasi-pasar-25-saham-unggulan-tembus-rp-2327-triliun

Saham RMBA Catatkan Saham Teraktif Senin (1/8)
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1756692/saham-rmba-catatkan-saham-teraktif-senin-18

Anak Usaha MIRA Tambah Modal di SOM
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1756362/anak-usaha-mira-tambah-modal-di-som

Medco Teken PSC CDM Blok Lematang
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1756152/medco-teken-psc-cdm-blok-lematang

Inilah Pencatat Kapitalisasi Saham Terbesar!
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1756112/inilah-pencatat-kapitalisasi-saham-terbesar

Laba Bersih JAWA Tumbuh 121% 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/08/01/142436/1693837/6/laba-bersih-jawa-tumbuh-121

Pertumbuhan Industri Otomotif dan Kertas Paling Pesat 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/08/01/163957/1694056/1036/pertumbuhan-industri-otomotif-dan-kertas-paling-pesat

CIMB-GK naikkan proyeksi, saham TLKM reli ke level tertinggi tujuh pekan
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312187310/74287/CIMB-GK-naikkan-proyeksi-saham-TLKM-reli-ke-level-tertinggi-tujuh-pekan

JAKARTA. PT Bakrieland Development Tbk (ELTY) siap meluncurkan Nirwana
Bali Golf Suites di kawasan Nirwana Bali Resort, Tanah Lot Bali. Suites yang
baru akan diluncurkan secara resmi pada Oktober 2011 itu menargetkan penjualan tahun ini mencapai 30% dari total unit yang tersedia.


Indonesia Stocks: Agung Podomoro, Astra, Bank Rakyat, Mandiri
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-01/indonesia-stocks-aneka-tambang-astra-international-nickel.html


Agenda
01 Agustus  Cum dev MFIN  30, Inflation Report

Inflasi dan Kondisi AS Angkat IHSG Sesi I
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1755252/inflasi-dan-kondisi-as-angkat-ihsg-sesi-i

Laba Bagus, Buy Saham INCO
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1754922/laba-bagus-buy-saham-inco

Pendapatan Rp1,9 M, Laba INDY Capai Rp564,5 Jt
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1750162/pendapatan-rp19-m-laba-indy-capai-rp5645-jt

Meski Terkoreksi, ASII Masih Menyimpan Potensi
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1748152/meski-terkoreksi-asii-masih-menyimpan-potensi

Laba BTON Terkerek 24,17%
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1755172/laba-bton-terkerek-2417

Naik35%, Lippo Karawaci Raup Laba Rp298 Miliar
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1755102/naik35-lippo-karawaci-raup-laba-rp298-miliar

Pilih Saham Bernuansa Puasa
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1755192/pilih-saham-bernuansa-puasa

Beras, Uang Sekolah dan Emas Dorong Inflasi Juli 0,67% 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/08/01/112040/1693610/4/beras-uang-sekolah-dan-emas-dorong-inflasi-juli-067

Nilai Ekspor RI Capai US$ 98,64 Miliar di Semester I-2011 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/08/01/122207/1693662/4/nilai-ekspor-ri-capai-us--9864-miliar-di-semester-i-2011

Laba Bank Kinclong Didorong Pendapatan Komisi 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/08/01/115115/1693634/5/laba-bank-kinclong-didorong-pendapatan-komisi

70% Saham Salim Ivomas Dilego Rp 12,5 Triliun 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/08/01/131910/1693716/6/70-saham-salim-ivomas-dilego-rp-125-triliun

Sentimen positif AS picu rebound harga CPO
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312173158/74252/Sentimen-positif-AS-picu-rebound-harga-CPO

TBIG akan rampungkan akuisisi Infratel di kuartal ketiga
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312182999/74275/TBIG-akan-rampungkan-akuisisi-Infratel-di-kuartal-ketiga

REMINDER::: EKAD: asing akan mengincar kepemilikan EKAD melalui , private placement 


UNIC laba bersih semester I 2011 naik 386,3%

ALMI BUY AT ANY LEVELS

REMINDER: ALMI TO GIVE IDR70/SHARE DIVIDEND AUGUST12; YIELD: 5.1% OR THE BIGGEST YIELD AMONG SHARES OF LISTED COMPANIES IN INDONESIA

ALMI 1H NET PROFIT +123% TO IDR45 BILLION; NOW TRADES AT A P/E RATIO OF ONLY 3.8X 2011 EARNINGS; PAR VALUE BASED ON ASIAN INDUSTRIAL P/E RATIO AVERAGE OF 12X IS AT IDR4,000. ALMI ALSO PLANS TO GIVE IDR70/SHARE DIVIDEND; CUM: AUGUST 12; IT IS A BUY AT ANY LEVELS.


BLOOMBERG: *INDONESIA'S JULY CONSUMER PRICES RISE 0.67% FROM MONTH AGO. *INDONESIA'S JULY CONSUMER PRICES RISE 4.61% FROM YEAR EARLIER

21 Saham Baru Masuk Indeks Pefindo25
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1754782/21-saham-baru-masuk-indeks-pefindo25

Bloomberg: Agung Podomoro Rises to Near Seven-Month High as Profit Jumps

Laba bersih anjlok, saham DOID tumbang ke level terendah 10 bulan
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312169955/74245/Laba-bersih-anjlok-saham-DOID-tumbang-ke-level-terendah-10-bulan

Laba bertumbuh, saham INCO reli terbesar dalam dua pekan
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312169142/74242/Laba-bertumbuh-saham-INCO-reli-terbesar-dalam-dua-pekan

Tower Bersama Bukukan Pendapatan Rp440,5 Miliar
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1754602/tower-bersama-bukukan-pendapatan-rp4405-miliar

Akuisisi Tol, Hold Saham ASII
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1754702/akuisisi-tol-hold-saham-asii

DOID Direkomendasikan 'Buy'
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1754762/doid-direkomendasikan-buy


Bloomberg: International Nickel Gains Most in Two Weeks After Profit Rises

Bloomberg: Telkom Indonesia Raised to 'Neutral' at CIMB

Bloomberg: Palm Oil Gains as Much as 0.8% to 3,120 Ringgit a Metric Ton

AS Berencana Pangkas Anggaran Hingga US$ 2,5 Triliun 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/08/01/095629/1693500/4/as-berencana-pangkas-anggaran-hingga-us--25-triliun

Rights Issue Saham Sentul di Harga Rp117/Saham
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1754452/rights-issue-saham-sentul-di-harga-rp117saham

IHSG Berpeluang Koreksi Sepekan Penuh
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1753292/ihsg-berpeluang-koreksi-sepekan-penuh

Just reminder : new LQ45 stock periode 1 agst 2011 - 1 feb 2012 : BORN, HRUM, KRAS, ICBP, EXCL

PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk (DSSA), a parent company of coal miner PT Golden Energy Mines that is controlled by Fuganti Widjaja, son of Sinarmas family's Indra Widjaja, reported a 613.03% surge in earning for the first half of this year. DSSA booked US$26.81 million earning in 1H 2011 from US$3.76 million in 1H 2010. Operating profit skyrocketed 307.68% to US$40.85 million from US$10.02 million. Gross profit jumped 173.24% to US$69.43 million from US$25.41 million. Dian Swastatika booked a 46.04% increase in revenue to US$263.55 million from US$180.47 million. The largest contributor for the company's consolidated revenue was coal mining and trading at US$143.72 million. Dian Swastatika has several subsidiaries focusing on coal mining such as PT Borneo Indobara,

Recommendation and valuation
Assuming 20-25% loan growth, BJBR would be on target to achieve our 17% CAGR earnings forecasts in 2011-12.  This combined with high payout ratio of 65% in 2011, BJBR remains attractive in our view. Thus, using 2012 valuation, we adjust our target price (TP) to IDR1,500, translating to 2012 implied P/BV of 2.4x.  With 21% upside potential to our TP, we reiterate BUY.  (Bahana - DX)

BLOOMBERG: *FUTABA INDUSTRIAL TO INVEST 1.5 BLN YEN IN INDONESIA    *FUTABA INDUSTRIAL TO INVEST 1.5 BLN YEN IN INDONESIA.

Bloomberg: Kalbe Farma Raised to Buy vs Hold at UOB Kay Hian

Bloomberg: Bank Central Asia Cut to Hold vs Buy at UOB Kay Hian

Bloomberg: BNP's Thio Favors Singapore Dollar, Rupiah, Ringgit, Won

Bloomberg: Astra to Acquire Indonesian Toll-Road Company, Daily Reports

IHSG Terkoreksi, Beberapa Saham Masih Menarik

Inilah Saham Pilihan Senin (1/8)

Rekomendasi Saham
IHSG Terdorong Kabar Positif Penyelesaian Utang AS 

Awal Pekan, IHSG Diprediksi Enggan Keluar dari Zona Merah

Optimisme Utang Bawa Bursa Asia Naik

British Tobacco Suntik Dana, RMBA Menuju Rp 1500

Diburu Fund Manager, BLTA Berpotensi Menuju Rp500

Pejabat Bapepam Terseret Skandal Askrindo-Elnusa

Laba Bersih INCO Naik 8,84%

Laba Bersih RALS Naik 50,64%

Laba Bersih DOID Turun Jadi Rp17,84Miliar

BIPI Catatkan Pendapatan Naik 15,56%

FAST Berencana Terbitkan Obligasi Rp200M

Dolar AS Naik Pasca Kesepakatan Utang Tercapai

Penjualan 2 Superblok Dongkrak Laba Agung Podomoro Hingga 105% 

Nusantara Infrastruktur Merugi Rp 25,57 Miliar 

Rugi Surat Berharga Rp 183,91 Miliar, Keuangan Danareksa 'Bolong'

Ciputra kebut pembangunan superblok kedua akhir tahun ini

Intiland menargetkan bangun 10 hotel bujet tahun ini

Rapor tiga penjamin IPO Garuda jeblok

Laba bersih SKYB melonjak 462% di semester I

Semester I, EBITDA ENRG meningkat 183%

Kuasi GIAA selesai di 2012

GZCO terbantu kenaikan harga jual

A difficult week on Wall Street came to a dismal end, with storm clouds of another recession and a crippling debt crisis circling overhead and dampening investor appetite for risk.

Dow.      12143.24.  -96.87.  -0.79%
Nasdaq.  2756.38.  -9.87.    -0.36%
S&P 500. 1292.28.  -8.39.    -0.64%
FTSE.      5815.19. -58.02.  -0.99%
Dax.        7158.77.  -31.29.  -0.44%
CAC40.    3672.77.  -39.89.  -1.07%.  Oil.            95.70.  -1.74.    -1.79%
Gold.      1631.200+15.200+0.93%
Rupiah.  8480
Euro.      1.4398

TLKM.  34.90.+0.51+1.48%. Rp7399  ISAT.    32.52 +0.74+2.33%. Rp5515
BumiPLC 1120.000 -28.000. -2.439%

Selamat Menunaikan Ibadah Puasa Bagi Yang Merayakannya.

Aswrwb, Saudaraku yg dimuliakan Allah  SWT, Bismillahii. Selamat Datang di bandara ISLAM. Penerbangan RAMADHAN AIR dengan flight No.1432kH, Tujuan IDUL FITRI, jarak tempuh 3O hari akan berangkat tinggal  1 hari lagi, harap memakai sabuk pengaman Anda dengan Sholat, Puasa, Tarawih & Zakat Fitrah, Teguhkan kursi iman Anda.. Jika cuaca buruk perbanyaklah doa, dzikir dan tadarus...!!! Mohon Maaf Lahir Bathin atas semua salah & khilaf...!!! Selamat Menunaikan Ibadah Puasa. Wassalam. Andri Zakarias Siregar & Keluarga.

Kalender Ekonomi & Event (01 - 05 Agustus 2011): Are Technical Analysis & Astronomy Have Discount A US Debt Default?

New Moon:Beware of The Darkest New Moon in Sturgeon Moon Cycle
WIB: +11 Jam
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

Week Ahead: Debt Votes Dominate but the Economy's Story Will Matter
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43952109

U.S. Jobless Rate Probably Unchanged in July
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-31/economy-in-u-s-probably-failed-to-create-enough-jobs-to-cut-unemployment.html

Cloud over economy unlikely to lift in July
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/cloud-over-economy-unlikely-to-lift-in-july-2011-07-31

Asia's Week Ahead: Toyota Results; China PMI Data
http://www.marketwatch.com/video/asset/asias-week-ahead-toyota-results-china-pmi-data-2011-07-29/3CF01B38-933C-44DD-B128-96AE570D7906

Why the Debt Crisis Is Even Worse Than You Think
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/113222/why-debt-crisis-is-even-worse-than-you-think-businessweek;_ylt=AqptMsHAR0AWSOND.v7IxFFO7sMF;_ylu=X3oDMTE5MW9tN2VtBHBvcwMyBHNlYwN3ZWVrZW5kRWRpdGlvbgRzbGsDd2h5dGhlZGVidGNy?mod=bb-budgeting

White House, Republicans Said to Reach Tentative Deal on U.S. Debt Ceiling
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-31/senate-postpones-vote-on-reid-debt-limit-plan-as-lawmakers-continue-talks.html

Britain, Japan warn of disaster if no U.S. debt deal
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43961831

If the United States Defaults, Lawsuits Await
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43960403

U.S. poised to join China, Spain in double-A club
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-poised-to-join-china-spain-in-double-a-club-2011-07-30?Link=obinsite

Newmont Mining CEO Sees Gold at $1,750 in 2012
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43945202

Is This the ‘Hold Your Nose’ & Buy Moment You’ve Hoped For?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43944644

S&P 500 Posts Biggest Drop Since July 2010
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-30/s-p-500-posts-biggest-drop-since-july-2010.html

Data Show Deeper US Recession, Sharper Slowdown
http://www.cnbc.com/id/43943125

Funds Increase Bullish Commodity Bets
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-31/funds-lift-bullish-commodity-bets-to-six-week-high-as-silver-holdings-jump.html

Nikkei 225 Index Poised to Rally 7% on ‘Golden Cross’: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-26/nikkei-225-index-poised-to-rally-7-on-golden-cross-technical-analysis.html

S&P retests the 200-day moving average
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-retests-the-200-day-moving-average-2011-07-29?mod=technicalindicatorpremiumstory&link=djmc_frontpage_module1

Posco to raise stainless steel price $95 per to
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/posco-to-raise-stainless-steel-price-95-per-ton-2011-07-30

Kalender Ekonomi & Event


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