Laporan & Rumor Saham Indonesia 11-10 (Refresh)

BLOOMBERG: *BUMI RESOURCES SELLS COAL TO EAST ASIAN BUYER :BUMI IJ. *BUMI RESOURCES SELLS COAL AT $133 A METRIC TON, OFFICIAL SAYS

Bloomberg: Indonesian Bonds Extend Gains on Surprise Central Bank Rate Cut

*DJ Bank Indonesia: Economic Fundamentals Remain Strong
*DJ Bank Indonesia Likely Sold $100 Mln At IDR8,945 -Dealers

*DJ Bumi Director: Funds Needed For Early Debt Repayment To China Investment Co

*DJ Bumi Director: Confident $600M Of CIC Loan Will Be Repaid This Month

BLOOMBERG: *BUMI RESOURCES SELLS COAL TO EAST ASIAN BUYER :BUMI IJ. *BUMI RESOURCES SELLS COAL AT $133 A METRIC TON, OFFICIAL SAYS

Bloomberg: *BANK INDONESIA CUTS REFERENCE RATE TO 6.50% FROM 6.75%. *INDONESIA BANKS LENDING RISE 23.8% AS OF END OF SEPT. *INDONESIA 2012 INFLATION MAY BE BELOW 5%, CENTRAL BANK SAYS.     *INDONESIAN RUPIAH 0.4% WEAKER AT 8,938 PER DOLLAR.

Bloomberg: Medco Energi Intl Sells USD 30 Million 6.05% 5-Year Bonds

1st session JCI on 11.10.11
3559.28(+108.20pts)(+3.13%)
(H: 3563.40 ; L: 3451.63 )
Value:    2.79T (NG 130 B )
Volume: 3.16 B (NG 60 M )
Foreign Nett Buy: 222 B !!!
USD/IDR : 8940 (On Shore)
               8940 (Off Shore)

6 MARKET DRIVEN BY SECTOR
FINANCE.      (+3.60%)(703.728 B )
MINING.          (+3.99%)(679.449 B )
MANUFACTUR (+3.00%)(511.089 B )
INFRASTRUC.  (+2.53%)(339.227 B )
PROPERTY.(+3.03%)(329.412 B )
CONSUMER (+1.90%)(114.793 B )

6 NETT BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGN
BBRI.      @6228 (39.56 B )
BBNI.      @3540. (36.65 B )
BMRI.    @6478 (31.74 B )
ADRO.  @1754. (30.23 B )
HRUM.  @7261.  (22.48 B )
CPIN.      @2509. (20.06 B )

6 NETT SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGN
ASII.      @66573 (16.04 B )
DOID.    @623.      (9.06 B )
PGAS.  @2636.  (8.63 B )
BUMI.    @1987.    (7.21 B )
UNVR.  @15703. (5.30 B )
KIJA.    @180.      (5.12 B )

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUE
BMRI.    @6500.  (+4.00%)
BBRI.    @6250.  (+3.30%)
ASII.      @66500 (+3.66%)
BUMI.    @2000.  (+4.16%)
LPCK.  @1850.    (+19.35%)
KIJA.    @186.        (+12.72%)
ADRO.  @1780.    (+6.58%)
PGAS.  @2675.  (+5.94%)

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUME
KIJA.      @186.  (553.267 M )
BNBR.    @52.    (292.932 M )
ENRG.    @134.  (241.965 M )
ELTY.    @109.  (236.590 M )
BUMI.      @2000(92.280 M )
DEWA.    @74.      (87.844 M )
ASRI.      @395.  (76.983 M )
BKSL.    @245.  (72.472 M )
 
12:10 11Oct11 RTRS-BAKRIE GROUP HAS HELD TALKS WITH AT LEAST 3 OTHER PARTIES  INCLUDING VITOL, NORTHSTAR TO REFINANCE $1.35 BLN DEBT - SOURCES
12:11 11Oct11 RTRS-Coal rights, shares part of Glencore-Bakrie talks -sources

JAKARTA/SINGAPORE, Oct 10 (Reuters) - Glencore International Plc's advanced talks to refinance the Bakrie group's debt involves gaining more rights to sell coal produced by the Indonesian conglomerate and an option to buy shares in London-listed Bumi Plc , sources said on Tuesday. he Indonesian group has also held re-financing talks for its $1.35 billion debt with at least three other parties including energy trader Vitol SA and private equity firm TPG-backed Northstar, two of the sources told Reuters. Bakrie and Northstar declined to comment. Glencore and Vitol were not immediately available to comment. The talks come after lenders urged Bakrie to restructure the debt after shares of Bumi Plc fell by more than 40 percent since the loan deal, triggering manda

Lonjakan 203 saham mendorong indeks naik 3% lebih di sesi I
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318309373/79649/Lonjakan-203-saham-mendorong-indeks-naik-3-lebih-di-sesi-I

Sesi I
Melesat 3%, IHSG Mampir ke Level 3.559 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/11/120453/1741344/6/melesat-3-ihsg-mampir-ke-level-3559

Hang Seng Pacu IHSG Sesi I Berakhir Naik 3,15%. Net foreign buy Rp221,53 miliar.
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783974/hang-seng-pacu-ihsg-sesi-i-berakhir-naik-315

Sesi Dua : Cermati Saham Berfundamental Positif
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783972/sesi-dua-cermati-saham-berfundamental-positif

Inilah Saham-saham Blue Chip yang Bakal Menguat
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783940/inilah-saham-saham-blue-chip-yang-bakal-menguat

Bersiap akuisisi tambang batubara, saham ANTM melaju
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318303763/79633/Bersiap-akuisisi-tambang-batubara-saham-ANTM-melaju-

Saham PTBA mencatatkan kenaikan tertinggi dalam dua tahun terakhir
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318303228/79632/Saham-PTBA-mencatatkan-kenaikan-tertinggi-dalam-dua-tahun-terakhir

Visi Media Targetkan IPO November 2011
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783962/visi-media-targetkan-ipo-november-2011

BEI: Reshuffle Kabinet tak Pengaruhi Pasar
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783959/bei-reshuffle-kabinet-tak-pengaruhi-pasar

SUPR Rencana Akuisisi 3-4 Perusahaan
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783957/supr-rencana-akuisisi-3-4-perusahaan

Pemerintah China Borong Saham Bank, Indeks Melesat
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783956/pemerintah-china-borong-saham-bank-indeks-melesat

BEI Bakal Kedatangan 3 Calon Emiten Lagi
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783950/bei-bakal-kedatangan-3-calon-emiten-lagi

Indeks IDMA kembali bergerak mendekati level harga tertingginya
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318302456/79627/Indeks-IDMA-kembali-bergerak-mendekati-level-harga-tertingginya
 
DJ BUMI Target Cut To IDR 1.400 vs IDR 2.700 By Goldman Sachs. ASII target cut to IDR 55.250 vs IDR 63.000. ITMG target cut to IDR 41.000 vs IDR 54.000; ITMG Cut to Neutral vs Buy by GS. PTBA target cut to IDR 15.500 vs IDR 20.900.

Bloomberg: Timah Preparing to Resume Tin Exports, President Dierctor Says. *TIMAH TO RESUME SHIPMENTS WITH TIN AT $23,000/TON, USMAN SAYS. *TIMAH SAYS TIN PRODUCERS MUST GUARD AGAINST `OVERSUPPLY'

BLOOMBERG: *ITOCHU PLANS TO EXPAND INDONESIA RUBBER OUTPUT FROM THIS YEAR

Macquarie INDY:::: § Outperform maintained. INDY’s valuation has become increasingly attractive given recent share price weakness, now trading on FY12E PER of 4.7x – the cheapest in the sector, noting our earnings estimates are 21% above 2012consensus. We note INDY’s 46% stake in Kideco makes up 75% of our valuation and we think it is being overlooked given current valuations.   

11 Oktober  METROPOLITAN LAND DIVIDEND, CUM,  BI Rate
12 Oktober  Rups Indocitra Finance, DSSA RUPSLB,  MYRX RUPSLB

Bloomberg: Bukit Asam Shares Advance Most in Two Years in Jakarta Trading

Bloomberg: Asian Stocks Surge as Commodities Rise, Euro Concerns Ease

Bloomberg: Palm Oil Prices Unlikely to Rebound in Near-Term, HwangDBS Says

Bloomberg: Ace Hardware Indonesia Rated New Sell at UBS; PT 3,450 Rupiah

Bloomberg: Garuda System Failure Causes Flight Delays: Jakarta Globe Link

Bloomberg: Pembangunan May Seek 250 Billion Rupiah of Funding, Kontan Says

Bloomberg: STX to Expand Indonesia Coal Output to 5 Million Tons a Year

Bloomberg: Rubber in Tokyo Climbs as Much as 3.2% to 323.5 Yen a Kilogram

Bloomberg: Adhi Plans 800 Billion Rupiah Rights Offer in 2012, Daily Says

JP Morgan PTBA::: Maintain OW with new Jun-12 SOTP PT of Rp22,500: Our SOTP model suggests a Rp28,700 fair value, implying 105% upside from the current price. However, we recognize that challenging market conditions make it difficult to achieve theoretical fair value, which implies 15x FY12E P/E. In
previous weak market conditions in 1H06 and 1H07 (not as severe as in
FY08), we have seen the multiple rerate back to the average of 12x within 6-
9 months. A 12x multiple equates to a PT of Rp22,500. Risks: Execution
risk, such as project delays, and a decline in coal price.

Gairah Regional Topang IHSG Dibuka Naik 1,71%
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783924/gairah-regional-topang-ihsg-dibuka-naik-171

IHSG Melaju 60 Poin Ikuti Tren Positif Bursa Asia 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/11/093616/1741182/6/ihsg-melaju-60-poin-ikuti-tren-positif-bursa-asia

Rekomendasi Saham
IHSG Siap Ikuti Penguatan Bursa Regional
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/11/072013/1741112/6/ihsg-siap-ikuti-penguatan-bursa-regional

Solusi Tunas Pratama Listing Perdana Hari Ini
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783919/solusi-tunas-pratama-listing-perdana-hari-ini

Saham Perdana Solusi Tunas Menanjak ke Rp 3.700 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/11/094048/1741188/6/saham-perdana-solusi-tunas-menanjak-ke-rp-3700

Inilah Menu Saham Pilihan Selasa (11/10)
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783777/inilah-menu-saham-pilihan-selasa-1110

IHSG Bisa Naik, Tapi Terancam Longsor
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783750/ihsg-bisa-naik-tapi-terancam-longsor

Pefindo Tetapkan Rating 'AA+' untuk Indosat
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783920/pefindo-tetapkan-rating-aa-untuk-indosat

DSSA Suntik Anak Usaha US$100 Juta
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783915/dssa-suntik-anak-usaha-us100-juta

Goldman Sachs Upgrade Harga BBTN ke Rp1.750
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783903/goldman-sachs-upgrade-harga-bbtn-ke-rp1750

Ayo Beli, Saham GDST Berpotensi Menuju Rp250
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783902/ayo-beli-saham-gdst-berpotensi-menuju-rp250

Saham BIPI Tengah Diburu Fund Manager?
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783901/saham-bipi-tengah-diburu-fund-manager

Ciptadana akan Tangani IPO Sektor Infrastruktur
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783744/ciptadana-akan-tangani-ipo-sektor-infrastruktur

Saham Batu Bara Menggiurkan
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783746/saham-batu-bara-menggiurkan

Sentimen Positif Eropa Amankan Wall Street
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783900/sentimen-positif-eropa-amankan-wall-street

Eksportir dan Teknologi Angkat Bursa Asia
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783897/eksportir-dan-teknologi-angkat-bursa-asia

Empat emiten antri izin emisi obligasi
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318296941/79616/Empat-emiten-antri-izin-emisi-obligasi

CTRA mulai berbisnis rumah sakit
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318293680/79611/CTRA-mulai-berbisnis-rumah-sakit

Genjot kepemilikan saham publik, POOL berencana stock split
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318254012/79593/Genjot-kepemilikan-saham-publik-POOL-berencana-stock-split

Berencana IPO, Prima Java cari underwriter lagi
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318246425/79587/Berencana-IPO-Prima-Java-cari-underwriter-lagi

Garap proyek pembangkit listrik, PTPP cari pinjaman Rp 250 miliar
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318237801/79576/Garap-proyek-pembangkit-listrik-PTPP-cari-pinjaman-Rp-250-miliar

Indo Straits raih kontrak angkut batubara senilai US$ 2,25 juta
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318236494/79572/Indo-Straits-raih-kontrak-angkut-batubara-senilai-US-225-juta

[Dow Jones] Short-selling in the Hong Kong stock market on Monday comprised 8.3% of the total volume, tapering off from double-digit levels amid the recent market selloff--this indicates bears may be deterred by the HSI's 9.0% rally in the last three sessions, its largest three-day point and percentage gains since June 2009. Total short-selling volume was HK$5.02 billion, led by China Overseas Land (0688.HK) with HK$292.28 million, then China Mobile (0941.HK) with HK$249.86 million and HSBC (0005.HK) with HK$227.66 million. Tencent (0700.HK) and SHK Properties (0016.HK) rounded out the top five, with HK$207.88 million and HK$176.06 million respectively. (robert.li@dowjones.com)

 [Dow Jones] The HSI is likely to rise, tracking gains in regional markets on hopes that European leaders can piece together a bailout package for Greece and limit fallout in the region's banking sector, says UOB KayHian sales director Steven Leung. News Central Huijin Investment, an investment arm of China's sovereign-wealth fund, bought shares in four major Chinese commercial banks on the Shanghai market is likely to support H-share banks today, Leung says. "I think the index could test 18,000-18,200 today, supported by the expected sharp gains in China banks after Huijin's move." But China commodity stocks are likely to underperform the broader market, after news China will extend an experimental tax on oil and gas to the entire nation taxing the resources sector between 5% and 10% starting Nov. 1, he adds. The HSI ended up 0.02% at 17,711.06 Monday. (susanna.tai@dowjones.com)

--Japan August current account surplus Y407.5 billion, against expected surplus of Y446.9 billion.
--Rise in commodity prices and sluggish export growth result in trade deficit.
--Strong yen likely to further dent Japanese exports.

[Dow Jones] The EUR is likely to resume falling in the near term because its gains on Monday are just position adjustments and there are still many problems left unsolved in European debt, says Barclays Capital chief Japan strategist Masafumi Yamamoto. Though Germany and France promised to deliver a plan to stem the debt problems, "we haven't had any details on issues relating to the second rescue package to Greece and fund injections to European banks. We've also had a meeting of Eurozone leaders delayed," he adds. For now, investors will pay attention to Slovakia's vote later in the global day on expanding the EFSF, and it may trigger "a big euro fall" if lawmakers there are unable to reach an agreement easily, Yamamoto says. The EUR/USD is last at 1.3626. (takashi.mochizuki@dowjones.com)

Dow Jones] LME base metals are mostly lower with zinc the only exception. Some analysts remain uncertain on the near-term outlook for base metals. LME 3-month copper is off its early lows after falling 0.7% to $7,438/ton. BNP Paribas senior metals strategist Stephen Briggs says copper has been, and remains, far more supply constrained than most metals; "nevertheless, we doubt the copper price will stay near $7,500/ton for long." He adds either current turbulence is a precursor to a serious slowdown in world economic growth, in which case copper may fall further, or the global economy will at least muddle through, in which case copper could recover much lost ground. LME 3-month copper is at $7,461.75/ton, down $32.25, aluminum is at $2,249/ton, down $9, lead is at $2,004.50/ton, down 50 cents, nickel is at $19,321/ton, down $59, while zinc is at $1,955/ton, up $5 from its previous close. (arpan.mukherjee@dowjones.com)

*** Hold CTA REC. 21 BUY NEKAD VII Hingga 11/10 - Waiting For BI Rate & IPO Solusi Tunai

Update After Closing 07-10:
APIC & TMPI= +20%/each.
Yang terkena trailing stop +3%: DKFT/CPIN/PGAS/LPCK/INDY/TBLA
@HOLD BUY NEKAD VII: ASII/BMRI/BBRI/AKRA/TRAM/MNCN/BKSL/ASRI/CMNP/BBNI (Trailing Stops: 3%); Target 11 October (Sesi 2).

REKOMENDASI CTA BUY NEKAD VII:
Saham Pilihan: 05-Okt-2011; Jam 14.00 WIB:
ASII 58.350/ BMRI 5.600-5.650/ BBRI 5.400-5.450/ BBNI 3.100/ CMNP 1.370/ PGAS 2.500/ CPIN 2.200/ INDF 4.675/ LPCK 1.520/ AKRA 2.275/APIC 350/ INDY 2.300/ ASRI 340/ BKSL 210-215/ MAPI 4.075/4.100/ TBLA 490/495/ DKFT 2.150/ MNCN 970-980/TRAM 720/730/ TMPI 115*.

*06/10.

Pasang Trailing Stop diatas harga BUY (Cancel -10% Stop Loss).
Stop Loss <10% Target Profit +> 10% (Tanggal 11-12 Oktober 2011).
Happy Zhuan & Good Luck.

@Hoping For Big Surprise? You'll Get It on Greece / Q3 Earnings / QE3 / Reshuflle???

IHSG:

DJIA:

USDIDR:

DAX German:

EURUSD:

GOLD:

CRUDE OIL:

Laporan & Rumor Saham Indonesia 10-10 (Refresh)

2nd session JCI on 10.10.11
3451.08(25.40pts)(+0.74%)
(H: 3452.42 ; L: 3424.56 )
Value:    2.18T (NG 209 B )
Volume: 2.29B (NG 254 M )
Foreign Nett Sell: 5.12 B
USD/IDR : 8945 (On Shore)
          8902.5 (Off Shore)

6 MARKET DRIVEN BY SECTOR
FINANCE.      (+2.13%)(511.851 B )
MANUFACTUR(+0.52%)(474.700 B )
MINING.          (-0.09%)(464.700 B )
INFRASTRUC(-0.03%)(333.543 B )
PROPERTY. (+0.78%)(169.288 B )
CONSUMER. (-0.32%)(77.012 B )

6 NETT BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGN
BORN.        @894.  (30.476 B )
BMRI.          @6154. (17.960 B )
ACES.        @3400 (14.285 B )
AMAG.      @152.    (13.882 B )
BHIT.          @191.      (11.879 B )
LPKR.        @616.    (10.416 B )

6 NETT SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGN
BNBR.          @51.      (49.969 B )
BBKP.          @519.    (33.059 B )
TLKM.        @7174. (17.3001 B )
ENRG.          @126.    (10.195 B )
BTEL.          @293.    (8.92 B )
TMPI.          @116.      (6.38 B )

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUE
ASII.            @64150 (+1.42% )
BUMI.          @1920.  (-0.51% )
BMRI.          @6250.  (+4.16%)
BBRI.          @6050.  (+4.31%)
TLKM.        @7200.  (-0.69%)
BBCA.        @7500.  (+0.67%)
TRAM.      @750.      (-1.31%)
PTBA.        @13850 (-1.07%)

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUME
KIJA.          @165.  (335.253 M )
ENRG.        @125.  (177.340 M )
BNBR.        @51.      (168.583 M )
STAR-W @16.      (128.879 M )
BUMI.          @1920(92.576 M )
STAR.      @260.  (79.991 M )

DEWA.        @70.    (77.413 M )
LPKR.        @620. (77.153 M )



Saham PT Solusi Tunas Alami Fully Subcribed
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783675/saham-pt-solusi-tunas-alami-fully-subcribed

Meski Transaksi Sepi, IHSG Rebound 25 Poin 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/10/160735/1740751/6/meski-transaksi-sepi-ihsg-rebound-25-poin

Awal Pekan, ASII Pimpin Penguatan IHSG
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783644/awal-pekan-asii-pimpin-penguatan-ihsg

Asing Net Sell, IHSG hanya Menguat 0,74%. net foreign sell Rp5,1 miliar
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783637/asing-net-sell-ihsg-hanya-menguat-074

Rencana Khusus Eropa Bangkitkan Rupiah
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783668/rencana-khusus-eropa-bangkitkan-rupiah

Kesepakatan Merkel-Sarkozy Angkat Bursa Asia
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783665/kesepakatan-merkel-sarkozy-angkat-bursa-asia

Saham KIJA Teraktif pada Perdagangan Senin (10/10)
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783658/saham-kija-teraktif-pada-perdagangan-senin-1010

BNBR Terbanyak Dilepas Asing Senin (10/10)
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783650/bnbr-terbanyak-dilepas-asing-senin-1010

September, Laba Bank Mutiara Tumbuh 310%
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783590/september-laba-bank-mutiara-tumbuh-310

Wuih.. BEI Siap Segera Ajukan Jam Perdagangan
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783573/wuih-bei-siap-segera-ajukan-jam-perdagangan

Inilah 10 Top Net Foreign Buy Saham Senin (10/10)
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783642/inilah-10-top-net-foreign-buy-saham-senin-1010

Survei: Resesi Hancurkan Pendapatan Rumah Tangga
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783616/survei-resesi-hancurkan-pendapatan-rumah-tangga

Adhi Karya Bidik Rights Issue Rp 800 Miliar
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/10/144421/1740656/6/adhi-karya-bidik-rights-issue-rp-800-miliar

Total Kontrak Wijaya Karya Capai Rp 8,1 Triliun
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/10/141815/1740629/6/total-kontrak-wijaya-karya-capai-rp-81-triliun

Oktober, Waktu Tepat Jual Saham di Bursa
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/10/140555/1740611/6/oktober-waktu-tepat-jual-saham-di-bursa

REMINDER about KIJA:::: http://www.bisnis.com/articles/greenwood-sejahtera-goes-public

13 Oktober  BW PLANTATION DIVIDEND, RP 9 CUM, BUMI TO COMPLETE FIRST-TRANCHE REPAYMENT OF $600 MILLION OF DEBT TO CIC BY THURSDAY ,Cum Right Issue KIJA 500:219 (250)

Bloomberg: *PT ATLAS RESOURCES SEEKS IPO OF UP TO $125 MLN, TERMS SHOW. *SHARES BEING OFFERED AT IDR1,500-IDR1,900 EACH, TERMS SHOW. *UBS IS SOLE GLOBAL COORDINATOR FOR PT ATLAS RESOURCES IPO

Bloomberg: Indonesia Consumer Confidence Reaches Highest Since July 2009 
    
2. Top BUYS and SELLS
2.1 Top BUYS
#1: Astra Internasional • Our top pick is the largest stock on the JCI and is widely viewed as good proxy for Indonesia’s economy. Its dtrong balance sheet, good credit ratings and above-average corporate governance cement its blue chip status. • Even if the auto sector is squeezed by tight liquidity, Astra normally gains market share because of: 1) the popularity of its models, which means lower collateral risk; 2) its well-capitalised finance companies that will support. • Bottom at P/E of 4x and 1x P/BV in 2008/9 but that was in the darkest moments when financing was in question and lending rates rocketed.

October 10, 2011 7
#2: Gudang Garam (GGRM IJ) • Industry consolidation prodded by the government via higher taxes for smaller producers play in favour of GG. This, coupled with normalising excise collections, should allow GG to boost its margins. • The completion of its internal restructuring means market share will continue to firm up, while distribution margin gains cannot be ruled out in the medium term. • Bottom at 2.4x P/E and 0.5x P/BV in 2008/9 in part due to restructuring just starting and industry consolidation still at an infancy stage.

#3: Bank Mandiri (BMRI IJ) • Underperforming big bank peers from the peak in early Aug 11 on overplayed concerns, we believe. Valuation is attractive at 2.3-2.0x FY11-12 P/BV and 9.7-8.9x PE. • Loan growth should outpace big bank peers (Jun 11: 27% vs. sector's 24%), in our view, while NIM could increase on expansions to micro and auto loans vs. other big banks' trends of flat or slightly down. • Bottom at 4x and 0.8x P/E and P/BV in 2008/9 as bank failure concerns were heightened by the Century and Indover bank failures then. Not so now.

2.2 Top SELLS
#1: Indo Tambangraya (ITMG IJ) • Most exposed to price risk as the company is a play on price, given the limited growth outlook and high exposure to the export market (90% sales are exports). • Limited reserve life and lower volume growth vs. peers (10% 3-yr CAGR production growth). • While the valuation looks attractive at 7.5x CY12 P/E, softening price outlook translates to unattractive growth profile and earning risks - in 2008, valuation bottomed at 6.2x P/E.

#2: International Nickel (INCO IJ) • Highly vulnerable to commodity price risks due to the decline in nickel prices on global growth concerns - despite its recent ~30% fall, nickel prices bottomed at US$9,000/tonne in 2008, translating to a 55% downside risk in the event of a full blown global recession.
• Single commodity exposure, with no hedge against declining commodity prices. • While the valuation looks attractive at 5.7x CY12 P/E (vs. bottom of 6.1x in 2008), we see major (30-40%) earnings downside from lower nickel prices.

October 10, 2011 9
#3: Timah (TINS IJ) • Highly vulnerable to commodity price risks due to decline in tin prices on global growth concerns - despite its recent ~50% fall, tin prices bottomed at US$10,000/tonne in 2008, translating to 50% downside risk. • Unfavourable cost structure (high-cost of offshore operations and purchase from small-scale miners for the inland operations) which doesn't bode well for the company in a declining price environment. • Valuation is a bit high at 9.0x CY12 P/E (valuation bottomed at 9.2x P/E), but we see major (30-40%) down

JAKARTA (Dow Jones)--Indonesia's government has opened bidding for 15 oil and gas blocks, a government official said Monday. Evita Legowo, director of oil and gas at the Department of Energy and Mineral Resources, said nine blocks are on offer via the regular bidding mechanism: the Kuningan Block; Offshore South Java I, II and III; South East Sageri; East Abadi; South West Salawati; West Berau; and Kai. Six other blocks are available via direct offer: Kalyani; South Baturaja;North Baturaja; Kuala Pambuang; Offshore Tanjung Aru; and South East Seram. Indonesia has been struggling to increase its declining crude oil output in the absence of any major oil reserve discoveries in recent years. 

11 Oktober  METROPOLITAN LAND DIVIDEND, CUM,  BI Rate

*DJ Bank Tabungan Negara Target Cut To IDR1,400 Vs IDR1,750 By GS
*DJ Bank Tabungan Negara Raised To Buy From Neutral By GS
*DJ Bank Rakyat Indonesia Target Cut To IDR5,800 Vs IDR7,050 By GS
*DJ Bank Negara Indonesia Target Cut To IDR3,500 Vs IDR4,300 By GS
*DJ Bank Mandiri Target Cut To IDR7,100 Vs IDR8,500 By GS
 *DJ Bank Danamon Target Cut To IDR3,800 vs IDR5,244 By GS

DEWA THIRD-QUARTER NET PROFIT MAY MORE THAN DOUBLE TO $4.2 MILLION

BUMI TO COMPLETE FIRST-TRANCHE REPAYMENT OF $600 MILLION OF DEBT TO CIC BY THURSDAY (OCTOBER 13)

DBS Vickers:: Indofood Sukses Makmur : Hold; Rp4,925;
Price Target : Rp5,050 (previous: Rp6,900); INDF IJ             
Still in correction mode
FY11F-13F earnings cut by 1-6% on FX rate changes, adjustments in CPO prices.  Weaker Rupiah to lift domestic costs of wheat and CPO – margins slightly lowered.  Seasonally higher consumption to boost 3Q11 sales.  TP revised to Rp5,050. Hold rating maintained on limited 2.5% upside (ex. c.2% dividend yield).

BLOOMBERG: *INDONESIA'S KEY STOCK INDEX GAINS 0.1% TO 3,429.52 AT BREAK

BLOOMBERG: *MEDCO RISES, BIGGEST THREE-DAY GAIN IN A YEAR, AFTER BOND PLAN

Bloomberg: Rupiah Falls Toward 15-Month Low Before Interest-Rate Decision

Asing Tahan IHSG Sesi I Berakhir Naik 0,18%> net foreign buy Rp15,67 miliar.
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783538/asing-tahan-ihsg-sesi-i-berakhir-naik-018

Sesi I
Transaksi Kurang dari Rp 1 Triliun, IHSG Naik Tipis 3 Poin 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/10/120617/1740411/6/transaksi-kurang-dari-rp-1-triliun-ihsg-naik-tipis-3-poin

Setelah bergerak liar, IHSG ditutup naik 0,11% di sesi I
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318223245/79539/Setelah-bergerak-liar-IHSG-ditutup-naik-011-di-sesi-I

Investor Sebaiknya Main Cepat pada Saham Selektif
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783536/investor-sebaiknya-main-cepat-pada-saham-selektif

SMRU Targetkan Produksi Mangan 50 Rb Ton di 2012
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783523/smru-targetkan-produksi-mangan-50-rb-ton-di-2012

Astra Otoparts Sebar Dividen Interim Rp 30 per Saham 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/10/121447/1740423/6/astra-otoparts-sebar-dividen-interim-rp-30-per-saham

Bunga Bank Naik, Adhi Karya Prediksi Laba 2011 Turun 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/10/120411/1740408/6/bunga-bank-naik-adhi-karya-prediksi-laba-2011-turun

Fajar Surya Bagi Dividen Interim Rp 12 di November 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/10/102515/1740294/6/fajar-surya-bagi-dividen-interim-rp-12-di-november

Pasar motor diprediksi meningkat, saham ASII bergerak liar
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318218055/79520/Pasar-motor-diprediksi-meningkat-saham-ASII-bergerak-liar

Spekulasi BI pertahankan bunga, rupiah mendekati level terlemah 15 bulan
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318219559/79527/Spekulasi-BI-pertahankan-bunga-rupiah-mendekati-level-terlemah-15-bulan

Bursa China jatuh ke level paling rendah dalam dua tahun
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318221002/79530/Bursa-China-jatuh-ke-level-paling-rendah-dalam-dua-tahun

Kondisi modal masih terjaga, BJBR belum berniat right issue
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318221731/79534/Kondisi-modal-masih-terjaga-BJBR-belum-berniat-right-issue
 
Bloomberg: Rupiah Slide May Force Indonesia to Delay Interest-Rate Cut

Bloomberg: Indonesia’s SMR Utama Advances 13% in Jakarta Trading Debut

Bloomberg: CICC Sees Counter-Trend Rally, Names Stocks Likely Worth Trading

Bloomberg: Indonesia’s September Tin Exports Decline to 5,233.06 Tons

Bloomberg: Greenwood Sejahtera Plans IPO This Year, Bisnis Indonesia Says

Bloomberg: Most Asian Stocks Rise as Leaders Ease European Debt Concerns

Bloomberg: Medco Energi Plans to Sell $30 Million of Bonds to Repay Debt

Bloomberg: Agung Podomoro Land Plans Acquisition, Bisnis Indonesia Reports

Bloomberg: China Collapse Latest in Year of Unmaterialized Fears, Citi Says

Bloomberg: China Nickel to Buy Indonesia Mine for About HK$2.1 Billion

Analis: Waspadai aksi profit taking lanjutan
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318209745/79501/Analis-Waspadai-aksi-profit-taking-lanjutan

Sesaat setelah listing, SMRU melejit 10% ke Rp 670 per saham
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318214220/79513/Sesaat-setelah-listing-SMRU-melejit-10-ke-Rp-670-per-saham

Pemegang saham KIJA restui rencana right issue
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317981127/79415/Pemegang-saham-KIJA-restui-rencana-right-issue

Konsorsium ADRO teken kontrak jual listrik dengan PLN selama 25 tahun
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317983257/79420/Konsorsium-ADRO-teken-kontrak-jual-listrik-dengan-PLN-selama-25-tahun

ELTY berhenti menambah tanah
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318036049/79444/ELTY-berhenti-menambah-tanah

Tahun depan, CTTH fokus ekspansi marmer untuk sektor perumahan
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318055346/79454/Tahun-depan-CTTH-fokus-ekspansi-marmer-untuk-sektor-perumahan

Dua pekan, indeks acuan harga obligasi pemerintah naik hampir 10%
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318060800/79457/Dua-pekan-indeks-acuan-harga-obligasi-pemerintah-naik-hampir-10

NIKL patok kenaikan pendapatan hingga 40% pada 2012
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318166387/79484/NIKL-patok-kenaikan-pendapatan-hingga-40-pada-2012

Ini dia emiten yang kinerjanya tidak terpengaruh krisis
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318203073/79487/Ini-dia-emiten-yang-kinerjanya-tidak-terpengaruh-krisis

Antam bersiap akuisisi tambang baru batubara
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318204938/79490/Antam-bersiap-akuisisi-tambang-baru-batubara

BIPI anggarkan dana capex US$ 24 juta di 2012
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318205458/79491/BIPI-anggarkan-dana-capex-US-24-juta-di-2012

Berpotensi Turun, IHSG Dibuka Naik 0,11%
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783480/berpotensi-turun-ihsg-dibuka-naik-011

Investor Cermati Krisis Eropa, IHSG Hanya Naik Tipis 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/10/093648/1740235/6/investor-cermati-krisis-eropa-ihsg-hanya-naik-tipis

Rekomendasi Saham
IHSG Fluktuatif Menanti Kabar Krisis Eropa
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/10/10/072827/1740171/6/ihsg-fluktuatif-menanti-kabar-krisis-eropa

Dibidik Glencore, 'Speculative Buy' BNBR
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783474/dibidik-glencore-speculative-buy-bnbr

Glencore Beli Saham Bumi Plc Tunggu Harga Turun
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783469/glencore-beli-saham-bumi-plc-tunggu-harga-turun

SMRU Catatkan Saham Perdana di BEI
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783296/smru-catatkan-saham-perdana-di-bei

Strategi Alokasi Aset untuk Investasi
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783300/strategi-alokasi-aset-untuk-investasi

Investor Disarankan Main di Saham Defensif & Bank
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783118/investor-disarankan-main-di-saham-defensif-bank

Krisis Global, Picu Rupiah Jauhi Level Rp8.000/US$
http://ekonomi.inilah.com/read/detail/1782925/krisis-global-picu-rupiah-jauhi-level-rp8000us

Total Emisi Obligasi/Sukuk/EBA Capai Rp28,81 T
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1782720/total-emisi-obligasisukukeba-capai-rp2881-t

KIAS akan Segera Kuasi Reorganisasi
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1774807/kias-akan-segera-kuasi-reorganisasi

Greenwood Sejahtera Lepas 13,3 miliar saham
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783255/greenwood-sejahtera-lepas-133-miliar-saham

Ups! Sepekan, Saham Bank Yunani Turun 15,5%
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783077/ups-sepekan-saham-bank-yunani-turun-155

Upaya Eropa Cegah Krisis, Angkat Bursa Asia
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1782672/upaya-eropa-cegah-krisis-angkat-bursa-asia

WIKA Investasi di Infrastruktur dan Energi
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778172/wika-investasi-di-infrastruktur-dan-energi

Elnusa Perkirakan Kontrak Baru US$170 Juta
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1724982/elnusa-perkirakan-kontrak-baru-us170-juta

NAB Reksa Dana Syariah Rp5,60T
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1773144/nab-reksa-dana-syariah-rp560t

Ramai-ramai Berlindung di Reksadana Terproteksi
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783355/ramai-ramai-berlindung-di-reksadana-terproteksi
 
Danareksa meminta suntikan modal
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1318209015/79500/Danareksa-meminta-suntikan-modal

[Dow Jones] The USD/IDR is lower at 8,950 vs 8,975 late Friday on improving risk appetite globally, dealers say. "We saw some foreign names selling dollars in the market this morning likely for long-term investment," a dealer says. Meanwhile Bank Indonesia, who last month spent around $10 billion to help defend the rupiah, has not yet been heard selling the greenback this morning. Dealers tip a 8,930-8,980 range for today. (i-made.sentana@dowjones.com)

[Dow Jones] Base metals are trading higher on the London Metal Exchange as Chinese buying activity picks up as markets there reopen after the week-long National Day holiday. Three-month zinc is leading the gains, trading 1.0% higher at $1,940 a metric ton. Benchmark three-month copper is up $3 at $7,371/ton. Friday's better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls report is helping boost sentiment in Asia Monday, although analysts warn that the complex remains extremely sensitive in the near term to macroeconomic indicators from Europe that could suggest a mid-to-long-term slowdown in demand. A softer USD is also helping buoy the base metals; the EUR/USD is at 1.3460 from 1.3375 late in New York Friday

 [Dow Jones] The Kospi is likely to open lower, tracking falls in the U.S. stocks, but downside may be limited as measures to inject liquidity into European banks seem to be on the way, analysts say; "(German Chancellor) Merkel and (French President) Sarkozy provided few details on the plan, but pledged to unveil a comprehensive plan to contain the euro-zone debt crisis by the end of the month," says Bae Sung-young, an analyst at Hyundai Securities. He notes financial stocks may fall after their U.S. peers fell sharply Friday. But he adds "stocks that have fallen a lot may show a rebound, helping the index try the 1800 level this week." Further, he says as Samsung Electronics (005930.SE) came up with stronger-than-expected 3Q guidance Friday, sentiment looks more positive towards some upcoming 3Q earnings results. The Kospi ended up 2.9% at 1759.77 Friday. (kyong-ae.choi@dowjones.com)

[Dow Jones] The HSI may fall to track Wall Street's declines on Friday, while profit-taking pressure is also likely to emerge after the index rose 9.0% over the past two sessions, with Prudential Brokerage's associate director Alvin Cheung tipping the index's support around 17,500. "I don't expect a sharp fall today, as the overall trading sentiment has been stabilized and I believe the index could test 18,000 in the near-term after a short-term consolidation;" the HSI ended up 3.1% at 17,707.01 Friday. HK property stocks are expected to fall today, on expectations the Chief Executive Donald Tsang plans to reiterate his pledge to boost land supply in his final policy addresss on Oct. 12, as well as announce plans to resume construction of subsidized homes as property prices remain far beyond the reach of many local households. Sinopec (0386.HK) may lag after fuel price cut news in China. (susanna.tai@dowjones.com)

[Dow Jones] China shares may rise tracking gains in global markets last week while the onshore market was closed for National Day holiday. The Shanghai Composite Index may see resistance at 2400 after ending at a near 30-month low of 2359.22 (down 0.3%) on Sept. 30. "The stock market may start to rebound after recent falls. The government's resolution to support Wenzhou is positive as it may prevent China's 'subprime crisis'," says Li Bin, an analyst with Guolian Securities. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao visited Wenzhou last week and urged stronger financial support for cash-strapped smaller businesses, highlighting concerns that a capital shortage could be spreading, according to the state-run Xinhua News Agency. The Shenzhen index was down 0.2% at 1004.52 on Sept. 30.(wynne.wang@dowjones.com)

The 1st Technical Analysis In Indonesia & The World (CTA Trading System): IPO PT SMR Utama (24) & PT Solusi Tunas Pratama (25)

CTA Moon Cycle:

CTA Solar 24
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to remain
low for the next three days (10-12 October). 

III.  Event Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M    05/05/05
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green

CTA Gann Analysis:

IPO SMRU
STRATEGY TRADING: Sell on rally, selama dibawah 700 (Strong resist)

Resist     : 635/660/700 (Sell)/732 (Buy jika Breakout)/782 (Sell)

Support  : 600 (Buy)/585 (Sell jika breakout)/560/524/500 (Buy)

IPO, Saham SMRU Oversubscribed 7,2 Kali
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1783506/ipo-saham-smru-oversubscribed-72-kali

IPO, SMR Utama Tawarkan Rp600/Saham
http://economy.okezone.com/read/2011/09/20/278/504789/ipo-smr-utama-tawarkan-rp600-saham

IPO SMR Utama Raih Ijin Efektif dari Bapepam-LK
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1780462/ipo-smr-utama-raih-ijin-efektif-dari-bapepam-lk

IPO, SMR Utama Bidik Investor Institusi
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1776875/ipo-smr-utama-bidik-investor-institusi

*************

IPO Solusi Tunas Pratama Rp3.400/Saham
http://economy.okezone.com/read/2011/09/30/278/508963/ipo-solusi-tunas-pratama-rp3-400-saham

IPO, Solusi Tunas Pratama Ditetapkan Rp3.400/Saham
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1779925/ipo-solusi-tunas-pratama-ditetapkan-rp3400saham

Solusi Tunas Pratama tawarkan 100 juta lembar saham
http://www.bisnis.com/articles/solusi-tunas-pratama-tawarkan-100-juta-lembar-saham-2