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Ekonomi & Pasar Finansial AS Kian Memburuk, Komoditi Rebound

Data non farm payroll AS bulan Februari tercatat -651k (sesuai perkiraan pasar) dari revisi -655k di Januari, unemployment melonjak ke 8.1% dari 7.6% di Januari, berarti AS telah kehilangan 2.6jt tenaga kerja dlm 4 bulan terakhir, terburuk sejak tahun 1983, dukung perkiraan pertumbuhan AS Q1 09 perkiraan -5.9% (-6.2% y/y di Q4 08). 10-yr treasury bond menguat 2.88% pekan ini. Wall Street melemah 7% pekan ini (Djia -20% ytd), telah kehilangan nilai $ 10triliun, DJIA ditutup diatas 6,600 pekan ini, potensi rebound k 7k-7.4k, sblm k 6k-5,684 di Q2. Dolar diperkirakan melanjutkan penguatan terhadap euro,yen,pound,rupiah pada pekan dpn, karena investor risk averse switch ke safe haven dolar AS. Harga minyak ditutup diatas $45 (breakout Trendline) tgt $50/55, emas potensi rebound k $1k tgt $1,200 bahkan mungkin $ 1,500 di H2 09,support $900.

Gold Oversold

Gold fell for the eight straight session yesterday to have the longest losing streak since June 2006 (silver broke its losing streak). Gold is clearly oversold in the short term and due a bounce. The question is whether the bounce will lead to another challenge of resistance at $1,000/oz sooner than most expect or whether the bounce is a prelude to further weakness which could see gold fall to as low as support between $850/oz and $880/oz.

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China's Economy Recovers as Stock Markets Turn Bullish

China's manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) strengthened for a third consecutive month in February, climbing to 49.0% from 45.3% the previous month. Li & Fung Research Centre reports that there were some encouraging signs: all sub-indices were higher than their respective levels in the previous month though many were still lower than the critical level of 50% (i.e. still contracting).

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Forecasting the Anatomy of the Stocks Bear Market Bottom

Financial forecasts, whether they are fundamentally or technically driven, are a combination of probabilities and assumptions. For example, when an analyst indicates that the earnings for a company are expected to increase during the next quarter and the business is now trading below its intrinsic value, he is suggesting that the probability of a number of issues should positively affect the near-term earnings outlook for this organization.

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