Japan & HK stocks jump, lead Asia on US bank hopes

March 13 (Reuters) - Japan's Nikkei average leapt 5 percent and led Asian stocks higher on Friday, propelled by growing investor confidence that large U.S. banks will survive without government takeovers and may even profit. Citigroup Inc told Reuters the bank does not need any more emergency cash from Washington and expects to stay private, while Bank of America said it was profitable in January and February, easing fears about further instability in the banking industry and sparking a rush back into equities. For example, Wall Street chalked up its best three-day run since November after Standard & Poor's raised its outlook on General Electric Co's credit ratings to stable from negative, though it stripped the company of its "AAA" status. On the other hand, Berkshire Hathaway, billionaire investor Warren Buffet's conglomerate, lost its AAA rating and has a negative outlook from Fitch Ratings. Tokyo's Nikkei climbed 5.1 percent, and posted its biggest weekly gain of the year. Shares of Japan's top bank Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group climbed 5.8 percent.
Open 7,520.00, High 7,600.00, Low 7,510.00, Close 7,570.00
R4 7830.00, R3 7740.00, R2 7650.00, R1 7610.00
PP 7560.00
S1 7520.00, S2 7470.00, S3 7380.00, S4 7290.00

















The MSCI index of Asia Pacific stocks outside Japan rose 3.2 percent, maintaining this week's up trend and hitting its highest level in about two weeks. The materials and financial sectors were the biggest boosts. Bank stocks were also the prime movers behind the 3.6 percent rise in Hong Kong's Hang Seng index HSBC rose 3.5 percent, as investors bought back the beaten down shares after an $18 billion rights issue. Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao said he had worries about the security of Chinese assets in the United States, comments that helped to push down U.S. March HSI futures +3.5% at 12,380, lagging cash market's 3.9% rally. Contract trading around 80-point discount to cash, suggesting players anticipating retreat with HSI putting up cumulative gains of nearly 10% Tuesday through today. Volume light at 47,105 lots, typical of Friday. March fair discount about 35-point discount to cash.
Open 12,340.00, High 12,603.00, Low 12,192.00, Close 12,598.00
R4 13697.33, R3 13286.33, R2 12875.34, R1 12736.67
PP 12464.33
S1 12325.67, S2 12053.33, S3 11642.33, S4 11231.33

Daily Commodities Market Recap and Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Palm oil futures may tumble as much as 23 percent this year because of lower energy prices and increasing vegetable oil supplies, according to analyst forecasts at an industry conference in Kuala Lumpur.The commodity may drop to 1,500 ringgit ($407) a metric ton in the second half, said Dorab Mistry, a director of Godrej International Ltd., one of India’s largest buyers. The cooking oil may trade between 1,400 ringgit and 1,500 ringgit in the next six months, said James Fry, managing director of research company LMC International Ltd.

Crude oil traded near $47 a barrel, set for a fourth week of gains, as OPEC prepares to meet this weekend to consider a cut in output. Crude oil for April delivery was at $46.73 a barrel, down 30 cents, at 8:23 a.m. London time on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The global oil market is oversupplied and OPEC will lower production if needed, Shokri Ghanem, who chairs Libya’s state- run National Oil Corp., said yesterday. Other ministers have called for the group to halt reductions. U.S. crude stockpiles rose last week amid a 3.5 percent drop in demand, the Energy Department reported on March 11.

Gold fell in Asia, poised for a third weekly decline and the longest losing streak since October, as a rebound in equities reduced investor demand for a haven and deflation concerns persisted.Gold for immediate delivery fell as much as 0.5 percent to $922.28 an ounce, and traded at $924.10 at 3:24 p.m. in Singapore, paring a 3.2 percent gain made in the last two days. Assets in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest such fund backed by bullion, advanced 0.3 percent to a record 1,041.53 metric tons yesterday, according to figures on the company’s Web site. The fund’s holdings are now larger than the 1,040.1 tons held by Switzerland in January, according to Swiss National Bank data.

TRADING THE PRECIOUS METALS & FOOD

August gold closed lower on Monday and above he 20-day moving average crossing at 672.80 confirming that a short-term low has been posted. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If August extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 682.60 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 666.80 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.

July silver closed slightly lower on Monday as it consolidates some of last week's rally but remains above trendline resistance crossing near 13.673. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends last week's rally, April's high crossing at 14.30 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 13.252 would signal that a short-term top has been posted.

July copper closed higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 343.87 confirming that a low has been posted. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If July extends the rally off May's low, the reaction high crossing at 369.70 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 334.00 would temper the near- term friendly outlook.

July cocoa closed lower on Monday as it extended last week's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If July extends this Monday's decline, May's low crossing at 17.55 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 19.11 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

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Warren Buffett Loses "World's Richest Billionaire" Title

On Wednesday, Forbes released it’s hotly anticipate list of the world’s richest people and someone stole the top spot from Warren Buffett.CNBC’s Alex Crippen writes, “The 2009 rankings, just released by Forbes magazine, put Microsoft founder (and Buffett bridge partner) Bill Gates in the top position with an estimated wealth of $40 billion. Buffett is number two, with $37 billion, a decline of $25 billion from last year's $62 billion, or just over 40 percent. Mexico's Carlos Slim stays in the top three with $35 billion.The net worth of the world's billionaires fell from $4.4 trillion to $2.4 trillion, while the number of billionaires was down to 793 from 1,125.

Here’s a list of the billionaires who claimed the 10 top spots as ranked by Forbes.
1. William Gates III
2. Warren Buffett
3. Carlos Slim Helu
4. Lawrence Ellison
5. Ingvar Kamprad
6. Karl Albrecht
7. Mukesh Ambani
8. Lakshmi Mittal
9. Theo Albrecht
10. Amancio Ortega

Penguatan Saham & Obligasi Angkat Rupiah & Regional

Rupiah Indonesia menguat terhadap dolar, mengikuti penguatan mata uang regional Asia setelah pasar saham global menguat yang meningkatkan permintaan untuk aset di negara emerging. Laporan Bank of America, JP MOrgan dan Citigroup yang menyatakan bahwa mereka mendapatkan keuntungan di bulan Januari-Februari memberikan sentimen positif kepada aset global. Indeks Bloomberg-JP Morgan Asia Dollar berpotensi mengalami penguatan mingguan terbaik di tahun ini setelah laporan penjualan ritel di AS mencatat penurunan lebih sedikit ketimbang perkiraan ekonom.Rupiah menguat 0.2 persen ke 11,993 untuk penguatan mingguan sebesar 0.8 persen. Indeks Asia Dollar menguat 0.7 persen di pekan ini. Rupiah kemarin mencatat penguatan terbesar diantara 10 mata uang yang aktif diperdagangkan diluar Jepang. IHSG ditutup menguat 17.0231 (1.30%)171,327.43 di 1,327.437.

Rupiah telah melemah 9 persen di tahun ini, menguat karena fund global membeli lebih banyak saham di Indonesia ketimbang yang mereka jual dalam 4 sesi terakhir. Investor asing menambah kepemilikan obligasi pemerintah yang bermata uang rupiah pada lelang 10 Maret sebesar 1.83 triliun rupiah ($ 153 juta), menunjukkan adanya aliran dana masuk ke pasar obligasi. Won Korea diperdagangkan di 1,487.75 per dolar, menguat 0.6 persen dari kemarin dan 4.2 persen lebih kuat dari pekan lalu. Ringgit Malaysia berada di 3.6950 per dolar, sedikit tidak berubah dari kemarin dan menguat 0.6 persen pekan ini. Dolar Taiwan menguat 0.9 persen di pekan ini menjadi NT$34.480, Dolar Singapura menguat 0.6 persen menjadi $ 1.5384 dan Bath Thailand menguat 0.5 persen menjadi 35.89. Peso Filipina dan Dong Vietnam sedikit tidak berubah di 48.50 dan 17,482.50.

Rencana Stimulus Asia & Laporan BOA Lemahkan Dolar AS

Yen melemah terhadap dolar AS, berpotensi mengalami penurunan untuk pekan ke-4 terhadap euro, karena saham global menguat berkat spekulasi krisis kredit global mereda, meredam permintaan untuk yen sebagai pelarian untuk safe haven. Lebih baik dari perkiraan laporan Retail Sales AS bulan Februari (-0.1% m/m, +1.8% di Januari), memicu perkiraan konsumen di AS masih cukup komsumtif yang dapat mendorong pulihnya kinerja perekonomian di AS, dan merubah prediksi penulis untuk pertumbuhan GDP Q1 09 menjadi (-4.5% Q/q). Euro berpotensi penguatan mingguan terbesar terhadap dolar di tahun ini setelah anggota dewan ECB Yves Mersch mengatakan beliau tidak melihat resiko deflasi di euro, meredam tekanan kepada ECB untuk menurunkan suku bunga. Swiss franc berpotensi mengalami pelemahan mingguan terbesar terhadap euro sejak 1999 setelah SNB kemarin memangkas suku bunga mendekati nol persen dan mulai membeli mata uang untuk meredam apresiasi Swiss franc.

Yen melemah ke 126.56 terhadap euro pada pukul 07.35 waktu London dari 126.16 di sesi NY kemarin. yen melemah ke 98.04 per dolar dari 97.72. Euro sedikit tidak berubah terhadap dolar di $ 1.2911 dari $ 1.2913. Swiss franc melemah ke 1.5333 per euro dari 1.5299 kemarin, ketika mencatat rekor penurunan 3.3 persen. Swiss franc melemah ke 1.1879 terhadap dolar dari $ 1.1851.Indeks Nikkei 225 menguat 5.2 persen dan indeks regional MSCI Asia Pasific menguat 3.4 persen setelah Menteri Keuangan Jepang Kauro Yosano mengatakan PM Taro ASo mempersiapkan rencana stimulus ketiga dan CHina memberikan signal stimulus tambahan untuk mengenjot ekonomi.Laporan Bank of America mencatat keuntungan di bulan Januari-Februari, bergabung dengan JP Morgan dan CItigroup di awal pekan ini, ikut memberikan sentimen positif. Yen masih berpotensi menguat terhadap dolar berkat spekulasi perusahaan Jepang akan menarik kembali pendapatan dari aset luar negeri sebelum akhir tahun bisnis berakhir. Jepang mungkin merepatriasi pendapatan sebagaimana Jerman membayar 15.6 miliar euro ($ 20.1 miliar) untuk pembayaran kupon dan principal dari hutang pemerintah pada hari ini.