Dolar melemah terhadap euro dan yen berkat spekulasi Presiden Obama akan mengumumkan bantuan lebih lanjut untuk industri otomotif, meredam permintaan untuk mata uang dolar AS sebagai pelarian investasi. Yen mengalami penguatan terbesar mingguan terhadap dolar berkat spekulasi perusahaan domestic akan membawa pulang pendapatan dari luar negeri sebelum akhir tutup tahun fiscal 31 Maret. Dolar Australia dan Selandia Baru berpotensi mengalami penguatan bulanan terbesar dalam lebih dari 20 tahun karena saham global masih melanjutkan kenaikan di seluruh dunia untuk pecan ketiga dan harga komoiti melonjak.
Dolar melemah ke $ 1.3560 terhadap euro di London hari ini dari $ 1.3526 kemarin di New York. Dolar juga melemah ke 97.92 yen dari 98.71 kemarin. Yen menguat ke 132.68 dari 133.52. Aussie berada di 69.82 per dolar. Kiwi berada di 57.31 per dolar. Indeks US Dolar berpotensi mengalami penurunan untuk pecan ketiga setelah Obama kemarin membuat strategi baru untuk industri otomotif dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Indeks USD berada di 83.87.
Sesi New York Update:
* Euro melemah terhadap dolar berkat anjloknya laporan Industrial Orders Euro (-3.4% m/m) dan komentar VP ECB Lucas Papademos bahwa ECB mungkin akan membeli obligasi pemerintah untuk merangsang pertumbuhan.
* Poundsterling melemah terhadap dolar & yen berkat lebih rendahnya GDP Q1 09 menjadi -1.6% q/q, -2.0% y/y, terburuk sejak 1980.
* Yen menguat berkat perkiraan investor Jepang repatriasi dana penghasilan dari luar negeri & terkoreksi saham AS & Eropa.
* Dolar (85.16) menguat berkat pelarian dana untuk safe haven, melihat memburuknya ekonomi Eropa dan spekulasi pertemuan G20 di London 2 April mendatang mungkin tidak akan membuat hasil yang konkrit guna mengatasi krisis ekonomi dunia. Meski data AS menunjukkan kondisi yang mixed. U Michigan Sentiment Final tercatat 57.3 naik dari 56.6. Personal income -0.2%, P consumption +0.2%, 7 negara bagian di AS memiliki umployment di 10% (nasional 8.2%).
* Harga minyak terkoreksi ke $52.16/barel berkat kegagalan tembus resistance di $55 dan prediksi harga minyak yang lebih rendah oleh Goldman Sach. Emas terkoreksi ke $926 berkat investor switching investasi dari komoditi ke dolar AS. Indeks coal -4.67 165.51, nikel -125 9650, timah +160 10350, CPO $670/ton.
* Saham Eropa & AS (DJIA -148; 7776) terkoreksi karena kondisi overbought picu profit taking (saham komoditi & energi) dan lemahnya kondisi keuangan JP Morgan & Bank of America di bulan Maret, General Motor menguat berkat spekulasi bailout lanjutan untuk industri otomotif.
* Rupiah melemah 260 rupiah menjadi 11,580 dimana sempat terpuruk ke 11,750, penguatan selama 4 pekan berturut-turut mengikuti penguatan Bloomberg-JP Morgan Asia Dollar Index diluar yen menguat 0.9% menjadi 104.76. IHSG ditutup menguat 42 poin di 1,462 (dipimpin oleh kenaikan BUMI, TLKM, ASII, PTBA, INCO, AALI) menguat 7.5% pekan ini (investor asing membeli net $120 juta di bulan ini), sama dengan kenaikan MSCI Asia-Pasific (DJIA menguat 11.8%).
Pekan depan:
Tankan BOJ Q2 Jepang (prediksi merosot tajam), ISM Manufacturing & Services (prediksi naik), BOE & ECB meeting (-50bsp & beli goverment bond), G20 di London, Non Farm Payroll (prediksi -641k), Unemployment Jepang & AS (prediksi 8.5%). Indonesia akan merilis data perdagangan, cadangan devisa, inflasi (perkiraan masih inflasi) dan BI rate (-25bsp, -50bsp jika terjadi deflasi di bulan Maret).
Friday, March 27, 2009
U.S. Treasury Bond Yields: Government Intervention Breeds Uncertainty
For many months, I have been tracking US Government 10 year Treasury bonds essentially stating that they have topped out. In my most recent article on Treasury bonds, I stated: "the upside for Treasury bonds is limited, and there is a high degree of certainty that a new secular trend is developing that favors higher yield pressures. "
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Stock and Housing Market Long Waves
I got it - that's why Bernake (and Geithner) are flying the plane into the ground. The most common cause of air crashes is when pilots fly planes into the ground. The reason they do that is that they get confused about where they are. 23rd March 2009 Chairman Bernanke said that if a couple of trillion hadn't been thrown into the fire, then Plumber Joe (and sweet Mary Lou) would have lost 70% of their 401K by now not 40%; (and presumably their house too). Pity he didn't get around to that conclusion in early 2007 and cut rates to zero then, rather than hanging on for ages telling everyone that everything was under control "so as to instill "confidence"", I quote from his presentation to Congress in May 2007: " At this juncture, however, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained”.
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Daily Technical Analysis Forex/DJIA/Gold
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FOREX Ltd |
CHF
The assumed test of key resistance range was confirmed with conditions for the realization of the pre-planned long positions. OsMA trend indicator having marked preservation of low activity and current bearish cycle of indicator chart gives reasons for preservation of open short positions for today as well. Hence the targets for short positions will be 1.1180/1.1200, 1.1120/40 and/or further breakout variant below 1.1080 with targets up to 1.1020/40, 1.0940/60, 1.0820/40. The alternative for buyers will be above 1.1360 with targets 1.1400/20, 1.1460/80, 1.1520/40.
GBP
The pre-planned breakout variant for sells was realized with attainment of minimal assumed target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked preservation of minimal bearish activity advantage nevertheless is not a confirming sign for priority of bearish direction in trading operations planning for today. Hence considering the current situation as indefinite and targeting at trading risks decrease we assume the possibility of rate return to upper boundary of Ichimoku cloud at 1.4580/1.4620, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term sells on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.4480/1.4520, 1.4360/1.4400, 1.4280/1.4300 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.4210/30, 1.4140/60, 1.4020/60. An alternative for buyers will be above 1.4660 with targets 1.4700/20, 1.4760/80, 1.4820,40, 1.4960/1.5000.
JPY
The pre-planned breakout variant for buying positions was realized but with failure in attainment of minimal assumed targets. OsMA trend indicator, having marked the high of the current week by the sign of pair overbought and by further relative bearish activity rise is not a definite sign for confident choice of sells planning priorities for today. Hence supporting version of possible range rate movement we assume attainment of channel line '1' at 97.00/20, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term buying positions on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 97.60/80, 98.40/60, 99.00/20 and/or further breakout variant up to 99.60/80, 100.20/40. An alternative for sells will be below 96.00 with targets 95.20/40, 94.60/80, 93.80/94.20.
EUR
The pre-planned buying positions from key supports were realized with attainment of minimal assumed target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked preservation of low activity of both parties as before continues supporting version of range rate movement for the choice of planning priorities for today. Hence we assume the possibility of rate return to 1.3480/1.3500 supports, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term buying positions on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.3540/60, 1.3620/40, 1.3700/40 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.3780/1.3800, 1.3840,90, 1.3900/20. An alternative for sells will be below 1.3400 with targets 1.3340/60, 1.3280/1.3300, and 1.3160/1.3200.
Gold 933
Initial support at 912 (Fib Retracement) followed by 883 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 967 (Mar 20 high) followed by 978 (Feb 25 high).
Commodity Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
XAU/USD 883.00 912.00 933.00 967.00 978.00
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 7830.00 and 7796.18 (main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 7752.66, where correction also can be. Then follows 7717.50. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 7689.37. Continuation will bring 7644.38 and 7893.75.
Today's resistance: - 7939.68 and 7970.64(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 7998.66, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8021.30, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8039.44. Continuation would bring 8076.13 and 8104.65.
Disclaimer.
CHF
The assumed test of key resistance range was confirmed with conditions for the realization of the pre-planned long positions. OsMA trend indicator having marked preservation of low activity and current bearish cycle of indicator chart gives reasons for preservation of open short positions for today as well. Hence the targets for short positions will be 1.1180/1.1200, 1.1120/40 and/or further breakout variant below 1.1080 with targets up to 1.1020/40, 1.0940/60, 1.0820/40. The alternative for buyers will be above 1.1360 with targets 1.1400/20, 1.1460/80, 1.1520/40.
GBP
The pre-planned breakout variant for sells was realized with attainment of minimal assumed target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked preservation of minimal bearish activity advantage nevertheless is not a confirming sign for priority of bearish direction in trading operations planning for today. Hence considering the current situation as indefinite and targeting at trading risks decrease we assume the possibility of rate return to upper boundary of Ichimoku cloud at 1.4580/1.4620, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term sells on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.4480/1.4520, 1.4360/1.4400, 1.4280/1.4300 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.4210/30, 1.4140/60, 1.4020/60. An alternative for buyers will be above 1.4660 with targets 1.4700/20, 1.4760/80, 1.4820,40, 1.4960/1.5000.
JPY
The pre-planned breakout variant for buying positions was realized but with failure in attainment of minimal assumed targets. OsMA trend indicator, having marked the high of the current week by the sign of pair overbought and by further relative bearish activity rise is not a definite sign for confident choice of sells planning priorities for today. Hence supporting version of possible range rate movement we assume attainment of channel line '1' at 97.00/20, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term buying positions on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 97.60/80, 98.40/60, 99.00/20 and/or further breakout variant up to 99.60/80, 100.20/40. An alternative for sells will be below 96.00 with targets 95.20/40, 94.60/80, 93.80/94.20.
EUR
The pre-planned buying positions from key supports were realized with attainment of minimal assumed target. OsMA trend indicator, having marked preservation of low activity of both parties as before continues supporting version of range rate movement for the choice of planning priorities for today. Hence we assume the possibility of rate return to 1.3480/1.3500 supports, where it is recommended to evaluate activity development of both parties according to the charts of shorter time interval. For short-term buying positions on condition of formation of topping signals the targets will be 1.3540/60, 1.3620/40, 1.3700/40 and/or further breakout variant up to 1.3780/1.3800, 1.3840,90, 1.3900/20. An alternative for sells will be below 1.3400 with targets 1.3340/60, 1.3280/1.3300, and 1.3160/1.3200.
Gold 933
Initial support at 912 (Fib Retracement) followed by 883 (Mar 18 low). Initial resistance is now at 967 (Mar 20 high) followed by 978 (Feb 25 high).
Commodity Sup 2 Sup 1 Spot Res 1 Res 2
XAU/USD 883.00 912.00 933.00 967.00 978.00
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 7830.00 and 7796.18 (main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 7752.66, where correction also can be. Then follows 7717.50. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 7689.37. Continuation will bring 7644.38 and 7893.75.
Today's resistance: - 7939.68 and 7970.64(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 7998.66, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8021.30, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8039.44. Continuation would bring 8076.13 and 8104.65.
Disclaimer.
Crude Oil Makes a Sweek Breakout Buy Signal (Part2)
Crude Oil makes a run higher giving investors some what of a tradable bounce. Although this is great for our long trades, this is a catch 22. Gas prices are starting to rise again and if this trade follows through. we could see $65 per barrel and a possibility of oil retesting $100 level within the next 6-12 months. Not a pleasant thought in the grand scheme of things.
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