(Bloomberg) -- Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average may have ended its 19-year bear market in October, according to Mitsubishi UFJ Securities analysts who use so-called Fibonacci patterns to make forecasts.
The Nikkei retreated to 7,162.90 on Oct. 27, an 82 percent plunge from a record high reached in December 1989. This marked a “major turning point in Fibonacci terms,” Naohiko Miyata, Mitsubishi’s chief technical analyst, said in a report. The index might approach 10,000 by June, or 40 percent above the 26- year low reached on March 10, Tokyo-based Miyata wrote in a note distributed to clients yesterday.
Fibonacci analysts use a system pioneered by 13th century mathematician Leonardo Pisano, who discerned ratios from proportions found in nature. The analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. Passage through one level is a sign an index will keep moving to the next.
The Nikkei 225 declined 237.84 points, or 2.7 percent, to 8,595.01 yesterday, the biggest drop since March 30.
Saturday, April 11, 2009
Earnings Preview: Intel Corporation, Crown Holdings, CSX Corporation and Mattel Inc.
By Charles Rotblut on April 11, 2009
This will be the first busy week for earnings season. Though the total number of reports is limited, just 68, nearly half will be from large-cap and mega-cap companies.
Financials will be in particular focus. Citigroup (C: 3.04 +0.34 +12.59%), Goldman Sachs (GS: 124.33 +9.58 +8.35%), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM: 32.75 +5.32 +19.39%) will release results. General Electric (GE: 11.33 +0.69 +6.48%) is also on the docket and all eyes will be on its finance division.
Outside the financial sector, reports from Intel (INTC: 15.98 +0.71 +4.65%), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ: 51.41 -0.04 -0.08%) and Google (GOOG: 372.50 +10.50 +2.90%) could impact market direction.
The Fed will add to the potential volatility with Wednesday afternoon’s release of the Beige Book. Inflation and housing data are also on the economic calendar.
Tuesday: March Producer Price Index (PPI), March auto sales, February business inventories
Wednesday: March Consumer Price Index (CPI), April Empire State manufacturing index, March industrial production and capacity utilization, weekly crude inventories, Fed Beige Book
Thursday: March housing starts and building permits, April Philadelphia Fed survey, weekly initial jobless claims
Friday: Preliminary April University of Michigan consumer confidence survey
The Federal Reserve’s web site is not listing any upcoming speeches from Fed officials. The next Fed meeting will occur on Apr 28 and 29.
April stock options will expire on Friday.
How results from the financial companies are perceived could have the biggest impact on market direction. Financial stocks have been trading off of sentiment (as opposed to fundamentals or technicals), so sentiment about the quarterly reports will matter much more than the actual numbers themselves.
Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises
Six brokerage analysts have raised their first-quarter earnings estimates on Intel Corporation (INTC: 15.98 +0.71 +4.65%) within the past 30 days. Though the consensus estimate remains unchanged at 3 cents per share despite the revisions, the most accurate estimate calls for profits of 4 cents per share. Guidance could be better-than-feared given recent increases in full-year forecasts. The chipmaker has topped expectations during 3 out of the last 4 quarters. Intel is scheduled to report on Tuesday, Apr 14, after the close of trading.
Crown Holdings (CCK: 22.20 -0.01 -0.05%) has topped expectations during 6 out of the last 7 quarters. Though one analyst did recently lower his first-quarter profit projection, the consensus earnings estimate remains unchanged at 21 cents per share. There is risk, but the historic trend bodes well for another positive surprise. CCK is scheduled to report on Thursday, Apr 16, before the start of trading.
Companies That Could Issue Negative Earnings Surprises
More than half of the covering brokerage analysts have cut their first-quarter profit projections on CSX Corporation (CSX: 29.75 +1.16 +4.06%) during the past few weeks. The negative revisions have caused the consensus earnings estimate to fall 8 cents to 54 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is even more bearish at 50 cents per share. The railroad company has missed expectations once over the past 3 quarters. CSX is scheduled to report on Wednesday, Apr 15, before the start of trading.
Mattel, Inc. (MAT: 13.35 +0.59 +4.62%) has missed expectations during 3 out of the last 4 quarters, and analysts are bracing for another disappointment. Negative revisions by 3 of the 15 covering brokerage analysts over the past few weeks have sent the first-quarter consensus estimate a penny lower to a loss of 13 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is more bearish and calls for a loss of 17 cents per share. Mattel is scheduled to report on Friday, Apr 17, before the start of trading.
Check Out These Related Posts:
This will be the first busy week for earnings season. Though the total number of reports is limited, just 68, nearly half will be from large-cap and mega-cap companies.
Financials will be in particular focus. Citigroup (C: 3.04 +0.34 +12.59%), Goldman Sachs (GS: 124.33 +9.58 +8.35%), and JPMorgan Chase (JPM: 32.75 +5.32 +19.39%) will release results. General Electric (GE: 11.33 +0.69 +6.48%) is also on the docket and all eyes will be on its finance division.
Outside the financial sector, reports from Intel (INTC: 15.98 +0.71 +4.65%), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ: 51.41 -0.04 -0.08%) and Google (GOOG: 372.50 +10.50 +2.90%) could impact market direction.
The Fed will add to the potential volatility with Wednesday afternoon’s release of the Beige Book. Inflation and housing data are also on the economic calendar.
Tuesday: March Producer Price Index (PPI), March auto sales, February business inventories
Wednesday: March Consumer Price Index (CPI), April Empire State manufacturing index, March industrial production and capacity utilization, weekly crude inventories, Fed Beige Book
Thursday: March housing starts and building permits, April Philadelphia Fed survey, weekly initial jobless claims
Friday: Preliminary April University of Michigan consumer confidence survey
The Federal Reserve’s web site is not listing any upcoming speeches from Fed officials. The next Fed meeting will occur on Apr 28 and 29.
April stock options will expire on Friday.
How results from the financial companies are perceived could have the biggest impact on market direction. Financial stocks have been trading off of sentiment (as opposed to fundamentals or technicals), so sentiment about the quarterly reports will matter much more than the actual numbers themselves.
Companies That Could Issue Positive Earnings Surprises
Six brokerage analysts have raised their first-quarter earnings estimates on Intel Corporation (INTC: 15.98 +0.71 +4.65%) within the past 30 days. Though the consensus estimate remains unchanged at 3 cents per share despite the revisions, the most accurate estimate calls for profits of 4 cents per share. Guidance could be better-than-feared given recent increases in full-year forecasts. The chipmaker has topped expectations during 3 out of the last 4 quarters. Intel is scheduled to report on Tuesday, Apr 14, after the close of trading.
Crown Holdings (CCK: 22.20 -0.01 -0.05%) has topped expectations during 6 out of the last 7 quarters. Though one analyst did recently lower his first-quarter profit projection, the consensus earnings estimate remains unchanged at 21 cents per share. There is risk, but the historic trend bodes well for another positive surprise. CCK is scheduled to report on Thursday, Apr 16, before the start of trading.
Companies That Could Issue Negative Earnings Surprises
More than half of the covering brokerage analysts have cut their first-quarter profit projections on CSX Corporation (CSX: 29.75 +1.16 +4.06%) during the past few weeks. The negative revisions have caused the consensus earnings estimate to fall 8 cents to 54 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is even more bearish at 50 cents per share. The railroad company has missed expectations once over the past 3 quarters. CSX is scheduled to report on Wednesday, Apr 15, before the start of trading.
Mattel, Inc. (MAT: 13.35 +0.59 +4.62%) has missed expectations during 3 out of the last 4 quarters, and analysts are bracing for another disappointment. Negative revisions by 3 of the 15 covering brokerage analysts over the past few weeks have sent the first-quarter consensus estimate a penny lower to a loss of 13 cents per share. The most accurate estimate is more bearish and calls for a loss of 17 cents per share. Mattel is scheduled to report on Friday, Apr 17, before the start of trading.
Check Out These Related Posts:
Oil Chart Signals a Bounce Needed for Rally: Technical Analysis
Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures for May delivery are testing key support levels and an “immediate bounce” is needed for the contract to return to recent highs, according to technical analysis by Newedge Group. If prices break through support at the $47.50 to $48, a barrel level, the contract may fall toward $46 a barrel and as low as $43.74, Veronique Lashinski, a senior research analyst for Newedge USA LLC in Chicago, wrote in a note to clients yesterday. Failure breach the support level may indicate a “bounce” to $54, she said.
“We can’t go any lower than $43.74 without causing severe technical damage,” Lashinski said in a telephone interview yesterday. This chart will be the daily technical focus until the May contract expires on April 21, she said.
Crude oil for May delivery reached $54.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on March 26, the highest since Nov. 28. The contract rose 23 cents, or 0.5 percent, to settle at $49.38 a barrel yesterday. A longer-term study features resistance around $55 and $60 and support around $38.50 and $40, according to the report. “It will take a lot to get above $60 unless there is a big change in the market fundamentals,” Lashinski said. “It looks like we have found market equilibrium here.”
Technical traders watch for patterns on daily charts for clues to price direction, and may sell or buy based on those signals.
“We can’t go any lower than $43.74 without causing severe technical damage,” Lashinski said in a telephone interview yesterday. This chart will be the daily technical focus until the May contract expires on April 21, she said.
Crude oil for May delivery reached $54.66 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on March 26, the highest since Nov. 28. The contract rose 23 cents, or 0.5 percent, to settle at $49.38 a barrel yesterday. A longer-term study features resistance around $55 and $60 and support around $38.50 and $40, according to the report. “It will take a lot to get above $60 unless there is a big change in the market fundamentals,” Lashinski said. “It looks like we have found market equilibrium here.”
Technical traders watch for patterns on daily charts for clues to price direction, and may sell or buy based on those signals.
Return of Stock Bulls Signals Time to Sell: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Investors turned optimistic for the third time since the credit crisis started last year, gauges of sentiment among individual investors in the U.S. show, a pattern that Helmsman Global Trading says is a signal to sell.The difference between the American Association of Individual Investors Bull Index and Bear Index surged to 5.6 as of April 2. When the reading rose to 11.5 in November and 13.6 in January it coincided with the end of “bear-market rallies” of at least 21 percent by the MSCI World Index.
“What that’s going to show is that people always want to look at the glass as if it is half full,” said Martin Marnick, head of trading at Helmsman Global Trading Ltd. in Hong Kong. “Using common sense you know what that general trend is. We’re in a recession and this is not the start of a bull market.”
The spread, which has fluctuated between 63 and minus 54 in the past two decades, has climbed above 5 in only three periods since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September. It retreated to minus 8.6 according to data released yesterday. The AAII gauges are compiled from weekly polls and track whether U.S. individual investors believe the market will rise, fall, or remain unchanged in the next six months. A negative number in the bull-bear spread indicates pessimists outnumber optimists. The reading fell to as low as negative 51 on March 5, a level not seen since October 1990, when the MSCI World was at the end of a 10-month bear market that erased 26 percent of its value. The MSCI benchmark dropped 59 percent from its October 2007 high to a 13-year low on March 9. It has since rallied 22 percent.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on March 27 its 30 members are likely to see their economies contract by 4.2 percent this year.
“What that’s going to show is that people always want to look at the glass as if it is half full,” said Martin Marnick, head of trading at Helmsman Global Trading Ltd. in Hong Kong. “Using common sense you know what that general trend is. We’re in a recession and this is not the start of a bull market.”
The spread, which has fluctuated between 63 and minus 54 in the past two decades, has climbed above 5 in only three periods since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. in September. It retreated to minus 8.6 according to data released yesterday. The AAII gauges are compiled from weekly polls and track whether U.S. individual investors believe the market will rise, fall, or remain unchanged in the next six months. A negative number in the bull-bear spread indicates pessimists outnumber optimists. The reading fell to as low as negative 51 on March 5, a level not seen since October 1990, when the MSCI World was at the end of a 10-month bear market that erased 26 percent of its value. The MSCI benchmark dropped 59 percent from its October 2007 high to a 13-year low on March 9. It has since rallied 22 percent.
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said on March 27 its 30 members are likely to see their economies contract by 4.2 percent this year.
Euro May Extend Losses to as Low as $1.25: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The euro may extend its decline to $1.25 after dropping below the March 30 low of $1.3114, said Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co., Japan’s fifth-largest bank.The $1.3114 level is so-called support on a horizontal trend line of a descending triangle, said Akifumi Uchida, deputy general manager of the marketing unit in Tokyo at Sumitomo Trust & Banking. The trend line connects the March 30 low and the April 9 low, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. A descending triangle consists of horizontal and descending trend lines.
“The euro is weakening and is likely to go below $1.30,” Uchida said. “The currency has broken out of the triangle to the downside.”
Europe’s single currency declined to $1.3137 at 1:35 p.m. in Tokyo from $1.3169 in New York yesterday. It touched $1.3090, the weakest level since March 18. The euro fell 2.7 percent this week, the most since the first week of the year. The $1.25 level was last seen on March 5.
Daily momentum indicators such as the moving average convergence/divergence also showed sell signals for the euro against the dollar, Bloomberg data shows. MACD charts can indicate whether a price shift is a change in trend or a short-term deviation by comparing moving averages based on nine-, 12- and 26-day periods. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support is a level where buy orders may be clustered, and resistance is where there may be sell orders.
“The euro is weakening and is likely to go below $1.30,” Uchida said. “The currency has broken out of the triangle to the downside.”
Europe’s single currency declined to $1.3137 at 1:35 p.m. in Tokyo from $1.3169 in New York yesterday. It touched $1.3090, the weakest level since March 18. The euro fell 2.7 percent this week, the most since the first week of the year. The $1.25 level was last seen on March 5.
Daily momentum indicators such as the moving average convergence/divergence also showed sell signals for the euro against the dollar, Bloomberg data shows. MACD charts can indicate whether a price shift is a change in trend or a short-term deviation by comparing moving averages based on nine-, 12- and 26-day periods. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Support is a level where buy orders may be clustered, and resistance is where there may be sell orders.
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)