IHSG Mendapatkan Technical Rejection, Potensi Minor Reversal

Market Review
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) kembali mencatat kenaikan untuk hari ke-5 pada pekan lalu, mencatat kenaikan sebesar 169.4 poin (11.53%), berkat suksesnya pemilu 9 April yang telah mengunggulkan kembali Presiden SBY sebagai calon terkuat dlam pilpres 9 Juni mendatang dan kenaikan indeks regional dan AS berkat spekulasi resesi ekonomi global akan berakhir di tahun ini. Imbas positif dari penguatan rupiah ke level tertinggi Rp 10,650 terhadap dolar pada akhir pekan lalu, ikut meningkatkan inflow ke IHSG. Kenaikan harga komoditas global dan kenaikan saham finansial global, ikut berperan mengangkat saham komoditi (pertambangan dan perkebunan) dan saham perbankan lokal. IHSG ditutup menguat 9.70 poin (0.6%) di 1,634.79. Investor asing mencatat net buying Rp 274.28 miliar, turun dari Rp 186.37 miliar pada hari Kamis.

Indeks saham regional rata-rata ditutup menguat, berkat lebih baiknya laporan ekonomi (Jobless Claims AS), Earnings korporat AS (Google, JP Morgan) dan penguatan mata uang dolar AS terhadap euro dan yen Jepang, yang meredam kekhawatiran terhadap resesi ekonomi berkepanjangan di AS, telah menguatkan Nikkei, Hang Seng, STI, meski Shanghai dan Kospi terkoreksi aksi profit-taking dalam kondisi teknikal overbought.

IHSG Outlook
Pada pekan ini, IHSG diperkirakan masih dapat melanjutkan penguatannya, selama indeks regional menguat lebih lanjut, berkat optimisme “stress test bank” di AS pekan ini akan berjalan sukses dan rupiah masih melanjutkan penguatan terhadap dolar, mengantisipasi perkiraan data inflasi bulan April (dirilis awal Mei) berpotensi menurunkan suku bunga BI dari level 7.50% saat ini. Lebih baik dari perkiraan laporan keuangan AS pekan lalu (Citigroup, Google, GE, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs) dan pekan ini (perkiraan Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo) masih memberikan sentimen positif kepada saham finansial lokal. Masih bertahannya harga minyak diatas $ 50/barel pekan lalu, merupakan signal positif untuk saham komoditi di pekan ini, terutama saham pertambangan batu-bara, logam dan perkebunan.

Stock Picks:
* BMRI
* HEXA

Technical Analysis:
Target kami di upchannel resistance line di 1,660 hampir tercapai (high 17/04; 1,659.34), dimana IHSG pada hari Jumat menunjukkan pola candle shooting star (bearish reversal), tepat berada di bawah 200-MA day di 1,635, yang menunjukkan pembalikan trend med-term masih terhambat pada pekan lalu. Meski indikator teknikal MACD, ADX, stochastic masih uptrend dan berada di teritorial overbought, seharusnya masih menunjukkan signal continuation bullish terutama jika upchannel di 1,668 pada hari Senin ditembus (peluang <45%). Tetapi jika gagal untuk kedua kalinya, IHSG dapat mengarah ke support 1,591 (5-day MA)/1,542 (10-day MA). Sementara untuk pekan ini, IHSG diperkirakan masih mampu menguat, berkat signal stochastic yang oversold, pola bullish white candle, untuk target 1,740 (38.2% fibo retracement weekly) dalam 1-4 pekan mendatang.
Resistance: 1737.82/1697.82/1667.07/1647.07. PP 1637.82.
Support : 1627.07/1607.07/1577.82/1537.82/1517.82
(Perkiraan Range Pekan Ini 1,550-1,700)

Regional Outlook
Lebih baik dari perkiraan earnings Citigroup dan GE di kuartal pertama 2009 hari Jumat, setelah sebelumnya JP Morgan, Google, Goldman Sachs, Intel pekan lalu, berperan memberikan momentum kenaikan kepada indeks AS dan regional hari Senin. Tetapi “stress test” 19 bank di AS yang mendapatkan bantuan dari pemerintah AS dan Earnings Q1 (Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Oracle, Exxon Mobil) pekan ini, dapat memberikan momentum positif jika hasilnya melampaui perkiraan pasar. Projeksi pertumbuhan Q2 & 2009 China direvisi naik menjadi 7.5-8%, dapat memberikan sentimen bullish untuk regional.

Kalender Ekonomi & Event Global (20-24 April)

Date WIB +11 Jam Currency
Mon
Apr 20 7:01pm
GBP Rightmove HPI m/m
9:30pm AUD PPI q/q
2:00am JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
8:30am CAD Foreign Securities Purchases
9:00am USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
10:00am USD CB Leading Index m/m
10:00am USD FOMC Member Evans Speaks
6:45pm NZD Visitor Arrivals m/m
7:30pm USD FOMC Member Kohn Speaks
9:30pm AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
11:30pm AUD RBA Gov Stevens Speaks
Tue
Apr 21 2:00am EUR German PPI m/m
4:00am EUR Italian Trade Balance
4:30am GBP CPI y/y
4:30am GBP RPI y/y
4:30am GBP Core CPI y/y
4:45am GBP MPC Member Fisher Speaks
5:00am EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment
5:00am EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment
Tentative GBP MPC Member Sentance Speaks
8:30am CAD Wholesale Sales m/m
9:00am CAD BOC Rate Statement
9:00am CAD Overnight Rate
7:50pm JPY Trade Balance
9:30pm AUD CPI q/q
9:30pm AUD Trimmed Mean CPI q/q
Wed
Apr 22 4:30am GBP Claimant Count Change
4:30am GBP MPC Meeting Minutes
4:30am GBP Average Earnings Index 3m/y
4:30am GBP Public Sector Net Borrowing
4:30am GBP Prelim M4 Money Supply m/m
4:30am GBP Unemployment Rate
7:30am GBP Annual Budget Release
8:30am CAD Leading Index m/m
10:00am USD HPI m/m
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories
9:30pm AUD New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m
11:00pm NZD Credit Card Spending y/y
Thu
Apr 23 12:00am JPY BOJ Gov Shirakawa Speaks
2:15am CHF Trade Balance
3:00am EUR French Flash Manufacturing PMI
3:00am EUR French Flash Services PMI
3:30am EUR German Flash Manufacturing PMI
3:30am EUR German Flash Services PMI
4:00am EUR Current Account
4:00am EUR Flash Manufacturing PMI
4:00am EUR Flash Services PMI
5:00am CHF Gov Board Member Hildebrand Speaks
5:00am CHF ZEW Economic Expectations
5:00am EUR Industrial New Orders m/m
6:00am GBP CBI Industrial Order Expectations
8:30am CAD Core Retail Sales m/m
8:30am CAD Retail Sales m/m
8:30am USD Unemployment Claims
9:00am EUR Belgium NBB Business Climate
10:00am USD Existing Home Sales
10:30am CAD BOC Monetary Policy Report
10:30am USD Natural Gas Storage
11:15am CAD BOC Gov Carney Speaks
7:50pm JPY All Industries Activity m/m
7:50pm JPY CSPI y/y
Fri
Apr 24 12:00am USD Treasury Sec Geithner Speaks
2:45am EUR French Consumer Spending m/m
4:00am EUR German Ifo Business Climate
4:30am GBP Prelim GDP q/q
4:30am GBP Retail Sales m/m
4:30am GBP Index of Services 3m/3m
8:30am USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m
8:30am USD Durable Goods Orders m/m
10:00am USD New Home Sales

Stock Market "Sucker-Rally-Dead-Cat" Still Yowling! Market-Long-Waves Say's "Bull-Run Warning"

The consensus is that the stock market rally is on it's last legs, market-long-wave analysis says different and that the markets will be 15% to 30% up on today by end 2009 and that the medium term trend is also upwards.If it were up to Sticks and Stones (can break my bones) that Cat would be road-kill by now. On the 14th March Professor Roubini pronounced the rally that started 10th March was a dead-cat-sucker-bounce.

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Week Ahead: Market's Gains Could Have Staying Power

Posted By:Patti Domm

The wave of corporate earnings reports in the coming week could wash over the stock market without eroding its recent gains.That's the view of some traders, who have been waiting for weeks for the rally to show signs of fading and have been surprised stocks have weathered the first battery of earnings reports so well.More than a quarter of S&P 500 companies report earnings in the week ahead, and there are just a couple of important economic reports, including durable goods and existing home sales. The Treasury Department releases its report on the composition of stress tests for the banking industry Friday. Also at the end of the week, finance ministers meet in Washington ahead of the International Monetary Fund's weekend meeting.

Major financial companies, like Bank of America, Wells Fargo and Morgan Stanley, will get the most attention, but there are plenty of reports from a range of sectors including major pharmaceutical, consumer products, technology and industrial companies. Dow components, like Coca-Cola, AT&T and McDonald's also report. Collectively, the S&P 500 are expected to see earnings decline 37 percent this quarter.Stocks finished a sixth week of gains, with the Dow up 0.6 percent to 8131; the S&P 500 up 1.5 percent to 869, and the Nasdaq up 1.2 percent for the week, at 1673. Financials were the best performers, up 4 percent on the week, followed by the industrials, up 3.3 percent, and consumer discretionary stocks, up 2.5 percent.

Whither Stocks
The stock market's move has defied the conventional wisdom in many trading rooms that the market is ready for a correction of 10 percent, or even more. Some are expecting a retest of March lows.Thomas Lee, J.P. Morgan's U.S. equities strategist, issued a note Friday discussing just that. "I guess the question I'm asking myself now is why this rally has been so resilient, and quite so dynamic, and I think a lot of it has to do with so much liquidity sloshing around," he said in a phone interview.Lee though believes a retracement will come, but the velocity of the decline in January and February, which took the market to March's lows, may be one reason it's taking so long. He pointed to the market's previous sharpest falls, in 1932 and 1938. While more extreme than is likely now, the market both times climbed back by more than 90 percent before retracing losses.Lee said the market should pull back, then begin to move up amid signs the economy is improving in the second half and that could be the start of a new bull market. He also said many investors believe credit leads a recovery, but historically in major market bottoms since 1962, equities have led a bottom in credit by about two months.

Brian Rauscher of Brown Brothers Harriman, a long time bear, turned bullish several weeks back, when stocks just started to climb. His expectations were that the market would sell off in the not too distant future, and then track higher to a range of 950 to 1000 on the S&P in the next three to five months. This week, he said he is watching the market closely because it is moving ahead faster than he thought it would.Rauscher said the measures he looks at are all still showing a positive move for stocks. "875 to 880 (on the S&P) looks important from a technical standpoint. It looks to be an area that should provide some type of headwind as we get there," he said.

Supply vs. Demand
The government's heavy issuance of notes and bills has been one of the biggest drivers of Treasury prices of late, and the past week was no different. On Friday, debt prices fell for a second day as the prospect of billions in new notes next week weighed on the market. The 10-year notes were yielding 2.932 percent, after trading 30/32 lower on Friday.At the same time, traders say the Fed's purchases are also affecting the market. "There is no market when the Fed isn't buying it. The street owns nothing but Treasurys. If they need to lighten the inventory, and the Fed's not there, it just falls apart," said Kevin Ferry of Cronus Futures Management.

The dollar, in the past week rose 1.2 percent against the euro, to a level of $1.3026 per euro. Meg Browne, a currency strategist with Brown Brothers, said she believes the euro could be under pressure in the coming week as investors watch a heavy calendar of European data.Browne said currency traders will be watching the Treasury's release on what the bank stress tests will involve. The actual tests are expected to be released May 4. Around the IMF, she expects possible volatility from the potential comments of finance ministers. "I think there could be volatility. I'm sure somebody like the French finance minister could say something," she said.

Econorama
The most important pieces of data in the coming week are March existing home sales Thursday and March durable goods on Friday. Leading indicators are reported Monday, and new home sales are reported Friday. Weekly jobless claims are reported Thursday as usual.Also important is testimony Tuesday from Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner who appears before a Congressional panel to discuss the Troubled Asset Relief Program funds.
Oil fell $1.91 per barrel, or 3.7 percent for the week to $50.33 per barrel on the Nymex.John Kilduff, senior vice president at M.F. Global said oil could be getting ready to break out."Crude oil prices have been mired in a range between $48-$52 for the past six weeks," he said. "When prices test the upper end of the range, there is a feeling that the worst of the economic crisis is behind us, and, at the bottom end, there is a sense of gloom. The range has tightened even more so, in the past two weeks, which is a long enough period to presage a breakout, one way or another, shortly.""Given the overwhelming amount of crude oil in storage, there is a compelling argument that the breakout will be to the downside. However, the drop likely won’t last long, as dramatically low refinery operating and even the OPEC cuts should start to bite," he said. He said he would be a buyer on dips.

Earnings Central
Among the many earnings in the coming week, Bank of America, IBM, Halliburton, Eli Lilly, Boston Scientific and Texas Instruments report Monday. On Tuesday, Caterpillar, Coca-Cola, Merck, Schering-Plough, United Technologies, Delta Airlines, State Street, United Health, Lockheed Martin, Norfolk Southern and US Bancorp report. AT&T, Boeing, McDonald's, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley and Altria report Wednesday before the bell. After the bell that day, Apple, Yum Brands, Sallie Mae and eBay report. Thursday's reports include Conoco Phillips, Glaxo SmithKline, PepsiCo, UPS, CIT, Raytheon, PNC, Occidental Petroleum, Marriott, Hershey, SunTrust, Union Pacific and US Airways report before the bell. Microsoft, Amazon.com, Amgen, Burlington Northern and Chubb report after the bell Thursday. Honeywell, 3M, Xerox and Schlumberger report Friday.Citigroup and General Electric, both of which reported earnings in the past week, hold annual meetings Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively.

marketinsider@cnbc.com

Gold Developing Bearish Formations

By: Merv_Burak
Since reaching its recent high in late February gold has been tracking a basic downward path. It closed on Friday at a new reaction low. Is this to continue into a new bear market move or are we in for a reversal ahead?

GOLD LONG TERM
We’ve had an up move and a down move on that long term point and figure (P&F) chart shown last week but other than that there is no change to its message. It is still in a BEAR mode with a projection to the $705 level.
As for the normal indicators, those also haven’t changed although they are getting very, very close to a reversal signal from their present bullish rating. The price of gold is sitting right on top of its still positive sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator remains in its positive zone. The momentum indicator is, however, only very slightly above its neutral line and heading lower below its negative sloping trigger line. Another down week in the price of gold and most likely we will see these indicators go negative. The volume indicator continues to move in a basic horizontal direction with a slight negative bias. It is below its negative sloping trigger line. However, looking at all the indicators the long term rating continues to be BULLISH but in a very, very precarious position.

INTERMEDIATE TERM
Everything on the intermediate term just keeps getting more negative. The price of gold is moving further away from its intermediate term negative sloping moving average line and the momentum indicator has once more moved into its negative zone below its negative sloping trigger line. The volume indicator continues to drift slightly lower below its negative sloping trigger line. Finally, the short term moving average line is moving further and further away and below the intermediate term line. We have consistently seen that a trend reversal has a rough time as long as the short term moving average line continues below its intermediate term line. On the intermediate term the only rating I can give is a BEARISH rating.

SHORT TERM
When we have the very short term moving average line (8 DMAw) below the short term line, and heading lower, it’s a good guess that the short term direction is not to the up side. Gold tried to break above its short term moving average line during the week but failed. It is once more moving lower, below its negative sloping short term line. The short term momentum indicator remains in its negative zone where it has basically been for about the past two months (except for a very brief period in mid-March). The daily volume activity has been very low recently but I expect that will perk up shortly. On the short term the rating continues to be BEARISH.