Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.2982 and 1.2957(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.2917, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.2882. Break of the latter would result in 1.2857. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.2830. Continuation will give 1.2791.
Today's resistance: - 1.3072 and 1.3098 (main). Break would give 1.3234, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3262. Break of the latter would result in 1.3297. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3212. Continuation will give 1.3230.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 96.30(main). Break would bring 96.01, where correction is possible. Then 95.86, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 95.64. If a strong impulse, we would see 95.40. Continuation would give 95.18.
Today's resistance: - 97.26 and 97.43(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 97.87, where also a correction may be. Then 98.12. If a strong impulse, we would see 98.44. Continuation will give 98.57.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 7987.50(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 7959.37, where correction also can be. Then follows 7922.80. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 7900.20. Continuation will bring 7871.40.
Today's resistance: - 8123.46(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8150.62, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8173.13, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8195.62. Continuation would bring 8246.30 and 8280.00.
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee: Sustaining below the falling trendline at 50.50 we continue to maintain a bullish view on rupee aiming 48.80 levels. The Rupee came under pressure yesterday due to cancellation of old exporter contracts. The movement in Rupee is looking range-bound until there is clarity on the New Government. (USD/INR 50.30) Neutral.
Euro: Euro plunged close to 250 pips yesterday after taking the falling trendline resistance. The daily charts are showing a downside momentum while the 4-hourly charts are highly oversold. More Range bound trading could be witnessed above 1.2900. Cautious shorts at higher levels with profit target of 1.2950 can be considered. (Eur/Usd:1.3008). Neutral.
Pound: Cable fell 180 pips from 1.4693 before closing at 1.4624. Cable is struck within a range of 1.44 - 1.47. All the charts are currently showing a downside, thus shorts could be initiated at these levels (1.4610) for 70-80 pips. Alternatively, look for buying opportunities at dips. Stay cautious of the break-out (Gbp/Usd: 1.4570). Neutral.
Yen: The Usd/Jpy pair is clearly in the downtrend again after breaking the trendline support at 98.32 and also after meeting weekly resistance at 101.70. The pair is trading close to the 38.2% Retrcament of the recent rise around 96.00 levels. Breaking below this can push the pair further upto 94.30 levels. Bearish (Usd/Jpy: 96.04).
Australian Dollar: Aussie has plunged almost 200 pips since yetserday's open(0.7211). The charts show a downside with support coming at 0.6920 (100 & 55 Daily EMA). The weekly stochastic is also indicating selling opportunities at every rise. Stay short on Aussie targeting 0.6940 as our first target. Bearish (Aud/Usd: 0.7010).
Gold: As discussed earlier, Gold still holds strength and is currently trading around $895 levels and further rally is still expected as long as 892 minor support holds. Medium term slightly bullish. Bullish (Gold: $898.00)
Dollar index : The Dollar Index strengthened after testing the 84.90 levels and charts are now neutrally poised indicating a slight range-bound session. View still reamins that DI is bearish in medium term (DI-85.90). RANGE-BOUND to Bearish
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by ecPulse.com
EURO
The Euro versus the Dollar was able to breach the support level at 1.3110 to reach our initial target at 1.3000 as the 1.2900 level (23.6% Fibonacci). The pair is being oversold which may result in an upside correction to 1.3050 – 1.3095 at the very most as our outlook remains to the downside targeting 1.2800 on the intraday basis as far as 1.3165 remains intact and 1.3320 on the short term.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.2800 and the key resistance at 1.3320 The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.4710 remains intact with targets at 1.2120
Support: 1.2955, 1.2900, 1.2845, 1.2800, 1.2750
Resistance: 1.3050, 1.3095, 1.3165, 1.3210, 1.3320
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.3050 with targets at 1.2900 and stop loss with four-hour closing above 1.3165
GBP
The Cable versus Dollar rebounding to the upside as it neared the key resistance at 1.4705 yet the 1.4692 level was strong enough to halt further inclines to reverse trading once again below 1.4590 to continue pressuring the pair and support our outlook to target 1.4480. We still expect further declines as the pair trades below the key support for the short term ascending channel where targets are now at 1.440 and 1.4340 as far as 1.4705 remains intact on the intraday.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.4240 and the key resistance at 1.5280
The general trend is to the downside as far as 1.5270 remains intact with targets at 1.3440
Support: 1.4530, 1.4480, 1.4400, 1.4340, 1.4310
Resistance: 1.4590, 1.4640, 1.4705, 1.4745, 1.4790
Recommendation: According to our analysis, sell the pair below 1.4590 with targets at 1.4480 and 1.4400 and stop loss with four-hour closing above 1.4705
JPY
The USD/JPY pair yesterday was able to reach the 96.10 level as the key support for the downside channel had shifted slightly to 95.90. We expect the pair to slightly incline towards the key resistance of the channel at 97.85 before reversing back to the downside to target levels below 94.00. Note that these movements remain as far as 97.85 is intact
The trading range for today is among the key support at 94.00 and the key resistance at 99.60. The general trend is to the downside as far 102.60 remains intact with targets at 84.95 and 82.60
Support: 95.90, 95.60, 95.20, 94.85, 93.95
Resistance: 96.60, 97.40, 97.85, 98.35, 98.75
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 95.90 with targets at 97.40 and stop loss with four-hour closing below 95.20
CHF
The Dollar versus Swissy was able to reach our initial target at 1.1585 after building a solid base at the 1.1425 support level yet engaged in an upside correction to reach 1.1545. Our outlook remains to the upside targeting 1.1785 (the key resistance for the ascending channel) with the confirmation of the breach of 1.1585 with four-hour closing above it and as far as 1.1450 remains intact.
The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.1355 and the key resistance at 1.1965 The general trend is to the upside as far as 1.0570 remains intact with targets at 1.2245
Support: 1.1545, 1.1510, 1.1450, 1.1415, 1.1360
Resistance: 1.1585, 1.1645, 1.1690, 1.1725, 1.1785
Recommendation: According to our analysis, buy the pair above 1.1545 with targets at 1.1690 and 1.1785 and stop loss with four hour closing below 1.1450
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Very disappointing as we drop back through the thinnest point of the Ichimoku 'cloud'. Expect several moves either side of 1.3100 this week.
Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.3015; stop below 1.2885. Add to longs on a sustained break above 1.3305 for 1.3400 short term and 1.3600 further out.
Direction of Trade: →↗
Support Resistance
1.2985 " 1.3036
1.2945 1.31
1.2885* 1.32
1.2835 1.3255
1.272 1.3302*
GBPUSD
Comment: Messy and disappointing but holding up a little better than some other currencies. Only a weekly close above 1.5000 will get a decent rally going, so until then expect random moves which are not contained by chart levels.
Strategy: Possibly attempt longs at 1.4545; stop below 1.4380. Short term target 1.4700, eventually 1.5000 Direction of Trade: →↗
Support Resistance
1.4545 " 1.4638
1.4515 1.4695
1.444 1.478
1.4397* 1.4855
1.435 1.496
USDJPY
Comment: Dollar/Yen has retraced 38% of this year's rally and carefully poised at the top of the Ichimoku 'cloud', and has dragged Yen crosses down by more than we had allowed for. Expect JPY to try and hold above the 'cloud' this morning, maybe all day. Later we continue to favour a test of the 93.50 area.
Strategy: Possibly attempt shorts at 96.00; stop above 98.15. Add to shorts on a break below 95.50 for 93.55.Direction of Trade: →
Support Resistance
95.97 " 96.35
95.65* 96.9
95.35 97.44
94.25/94.15* 98.15
93.55 98.50*
Tuesday, April 28, 2009
Potensi Kenaikan IHSG Terbatas
Market Review
IHSG kembali mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari anjloknya indeks saham regional Asia dan Eropa pada hari Senin, karena mencuatnya wabah flu babi di AS, Meksiko, Kanada yang mendorong keadaan darurat kesehatan di negara-negara tersebut. Kondisi tersebut diperburuk oleh aksi penjualan saham di sejumlah saham unggulan (TLKM, PGAS, AALI, UNSP) berkat laba bersih terlihat di bawah perkiraan pasar dan laporan ekspor karet di Q1 209 mengalami penurunan 32% y/y. Meski laju penurunan IHSG, dapat dibatasi oleh kenaikan di sejumlah saham pertambangan lainnya seperti INCO, ADRO (laporan penjualan Rp 1,200 oleh Goldman Sachs), PTBA, ANTM mengikuti kenaikan harga nikel, emas dan batubara di akhir pekan. IHSG ditutup melemah 15.255 poin (0.959%) di 1,576.08. Investor asing mencatat net sell sebesar Rp 28.89 miliar, dibandingkan net sell Rp 18.172 miliar hari Jumat (24/04).
Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific melemah pada hari Senin, berkat kekhawatiran mengenai meluasnya wabah flu babi di Amerika Utara yang dapat memperlambat pemulihan ekonomi global. Saham di Jepang menguat berkat spekulasi merger 2 bank dan melonjaknya saham farmasi dari imbas flu babi.
IHSG Outlook
Index P/E (x) EPS YTD Suku Bunga Inflasi* GDP*
IHSG 9.5 8% -30.6% 7.50% 7.96% 5.2%
STI 12.45 16% -41.7% 0.13% 1.60% -11.50%
KLCI 13.16 10% -23.3% 2.0% 3.50% 0.10%
SET 8.10 4% -43.2% 1.25% -0.20% -4.30%
SSE 18.65 36% -31.7% 5.31% -1.20% 6.10%
N225 40.98 -1% -35.1% 0.10% -0.10% -12.4%
HSI 12.10 19% -36.5% 0.50% 0.80% -2.50%
DJIA 21.38 3% -34.1% 0.25% -0.4% -6.3%
IHSG pada hari Selasa, diperkirakan masih berpotensi melemah dari potensi penurunan di sejumlah saham unggulan yang mencatat laba di bawah perkiraan pasar (TLKM, AALI, PGAS), harga komoditi global (minyak, logam, cpo) kembali terkoreksi (imbas investor melakukan risk aversion ke dolar AS) dapat picu aksi profit-taking di saham pertambangan dan perkebunan, dan hasil Stress Test perbankan BI di akhir pekan menunjukkan tren kenaikan NPL, masih membebani saham perbankan. Meski potensi penurunan IHSG dapat dibatasi potensi kenaikan di saham farmasi, semen, finansial, consumer goods, property, mengantisipasi inflasi (01/05), BI rate (06/05). Faktor teknikal overbought dan kinerja saham global ikut membebani IHSG.
Sector Trend:
Outperform Mining, Agriculture, Consumer Goods, Trade
Neutral Financial, Infrastructure, Misc Industry
Underperform Property, Basic Industry
Stock Picks:
* UNTR
* PGAS
Technical Analysis:
IHSG masih memberikan signal downtrend dari kondisi chart daily yang overbought (Stochastic, ADX, MACD), diikuti pola candle inverted hammer, 5 & 10-day MA menunjukkan crossing dan IHSG masih berada di bawah 200-day MA (1,613) masih menunjukkan pola continuation bearish sejak awal pekan lalu, setelah gagal menembus uptrend channel resistance dan gagal ditutup diatas 200-day MA selama 2 hari berturut-turut. Jika IHSG menembus support line (rising wedge) dan ditutup dibawah di 1,557 pada hari ini, akan memperburuk pandangan IHSG jangka pendek, untuk target 1,501 (23.6% fibonacci expansion)/1,460 (low 08/04). Untuk mempertahankan trend bullish, IHSG harus ditutup diatas 1,601 (5-day MA) selama 2 hari berturut-turut, untuk mencoba kembali resistance di 1,632/675. Analisa Elliot Wave, menunjukkan kegagalan menembus 1,675 (uptrend channel) pekan lalu (wave 3 impulse), menjadikan IHSG berada dalam sub wave 4 saat ini dalam koreksi penurunan major wave IV.
Resistance: 1632.55/1620.19/1607.82/1599.89. PP 1583.09
Support : 1567.22/1558.36/1533.63/1521.27/1508.90
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,560-1,590)
Global Outlook
Isu wabah flu babi di Amerika Utara & Eropa masih menghantui kinerja indeks saham regional Asia dan AS, berkat kekhawatiran wabah flu babi dapat memperlambat pemulihan ekonomi global di tahun ini, meski berada dalam trend bullish. Kondisi teknikal overbought dan kekhawatiran terhadap data GDP Q1 AS (30/04; perkiraan -5.0%) setelah Lawrence Summers mengindikasikan ekonomi AS masih berada dalam resesi, menjelang FOMC (30/04), Stress Test (04/05), masih membebani kinerja indeks global.
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IHSG kembali mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari anjloknya indeks saham regional Asia dan Eropa pada hari Senin, karena mencuatnya wabah flu babi di AS, Meksiko, Kanada yang mendorong keadaan darurat kesehatan di negara-negara tersebut. Kondisi tersebut diperburuk oleh aksi penjualan saham di sejumlah saham unggulan (TLKM, PGAS, AALI, UNSP) berkat laba bersih terlihat di bawah perkiraan pasar dan laporan ekspor karet di Q1 209 mengalami penurunan 32% y/y. Meski laju penurunan IHSG, dapat dibatasi oleh kenaikan di sejumlah saham pertambangan lainnya seperti INCO, ADRO (laporan penjualan Rp 1,200 oleh Goldman Sachs), PTBA, ANTM mengikuti kenaikan harga nikel, emas dan batubara di akhir pekan. IHSG ditutup melemah 15.255 poin (0.959%) di 1,576.08. Investor asing mencatat net sell sebesar Rp 28.89 miliar, dibandingkan net sell Rp 18.172 miliar hari Jumat (24/04).
Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific melemah pada hari Senin, berkat kekhawatiran mengenai meluasnya wabah flu babi di Amerika Utara yang dapat memperlambat pemulihan ekonomi global. Saham di Jepang menguat berkat spekulasi merger 2 bank dan melonjaknya saham farmasi dari imbas flu babi.
IHSG Outlook
Index P/E (x) EPS YTD Suku Bunga Inflasi* GDP*
IHSG 9.5 8% -30.6% 7.50% 7.96% 5.2%
STI 12.45 16% -41.7% 0.13% 1.60% -11.50%
KLCI 13.16 10% -23.3% 2.0% 3.50% 0.10%
SET 8.10 4% -43.2% 1.25% -0.20% -4.30%
SSE 18.65 36% -31.7% 5.31% -1.20% 6.10%
N225 40.98 -1% -35.1% 0.10% -0.10% -12.4%
HSI 12.10 19% -36.5% 0.50% 0.80% -2.50%
DJIA 21.38 3% -34.1% 0.25% -0.4% -6.3%
IHSG pada hari Selasa, diperkirakan masih berpotensi melemah dari potensi penurunan di sejumlah saham unggulan yang mencatat laba di bawah perkiraan pasar (TLKM, AALI, PGAS), harga komoditi global (minyak, logam, cpo) kembali terkoreksi (imbas investor melakukan risk aversion ke dolar AS) dapat picu aksi profit-taking di saham pertambangan dan perkebunan, dan hasil Stress Test perbankan BI di akhir pekan menunjukkan tren kenaikan NPL, masih membebani saham perbankan. Meski potensi penurunan IHSG dapat dibatasi potensi kenaikan di saham farmasi, semen, finansial, consumer goods, property, mengantisipasi inflasi (01/05), BI rate (06/05). Faktor teknikal overbought dan kinerja saham global ikut membebani IHSG.
Sector Trend:
Outperform Mining, Agriculture, Consumer Goods, Trade
Neutral Financial, Infrastructure, Misc Industry
Underperform Property, Basic Industry
Stock Picks:
* UNTR
* PGAS
Technical Analysis:
IHSG masih memberikan signal downtrend dari kondisi chart daily yang overbought (Stochastic, ADX, MACD), diikuti pola candle inverted hammer, 5 & 10-day MA menunjukkan crossing dan IHSG masih berada di bawah 200-day MA (1,613) masih menunjukkan pola continuation bearish sejak awal pekan lalu, setelah gagal menembus uptrend channel resistance dan gagal ditutup diatas 200-day MA selama 2 hari berturut-turut. Jika IHSG menembus support line (rising wedge) dan ditutup dibawah di 1,557 pada hari ini, akan memperburuk pandangan IHSG jangka pendek, untuk target 1,501 (23.6% fibonacci expansion)/1,460 (low 08/04). Untuk mempertahankan trend bullish, IHSG harus ditutup diatas 1,601 (5-day MA) selama 2 hari berturut-turut, untuk mencoba kembali resistance di 1,632/675. Analisa Elliot Wave, menunjukkan kegagalan menembus 1,675 (uptrend channel) pekan lalu (wave 3 impulse), menjadikan IHSG berada dalam sub wave 4 saat ini dalam koreksi penurunan major wave IV.
Resistance: 1632.55/1620.19/1607.82/1599.89. PP 1583.09
Support : 1567.22/1558.36/1533.63/1521.27/1508.90
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,560-1,590)
Global Outlook
Isu wabah flu babi di Amerika Utara & Eropa masih menghantui kinerja indeks saham regional Asia dan AS, berkat kekhawatiran wabah flu babi dapat memperlambat pemulihan ekonomi global di tahun ini, meski berada dalam trend bullish. Kondisi teknikal overbought dan kekhawatiran terhadap data GDP Q1 AS (30/04; perkiraan -5.0%) setelah Lawrence Summers mengindikasikan ekonomi AS masih berada dalam resesi, menjelang FOMC (30/04), Stress Test (04/05), masih membebani kinerja indeks global.
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id
Indeks Asia : Pola Teknikal Mendukung Strategy Sell On Rally
SSIM9
Commentary
Secara teknikal, SSIM9 masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend terlihat dari indikator MACD yang masih berada di teritorial bullish, penutupan diatas 35-day MA di 8,387, diikuti pola rising wedge yang seharusnya mempertahankan pola kenaikan selama ditutup diatas 8,760 meski dibayangi oleh pola candle hanging man yang menunjukkan indikasi minor bearish reversal, setidaknya masih mendukung pola konsolidasi (indikator ADX terlihat lemah) dalam kondisi stochastic yang bearish. Tembusnya small downchannel support line di 8,730 dan resistance 8,8815 merupakan false break, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan konsolidasi pada hari Selasa. Jika SSIM9 ditutup dibawah support line 8,515, trend jangka pendek akan berubah menjadi netral, target 8,060/7,600. Penutupan harian diatas 8,920 seharusnya mengarahkan indeks ke target rising wedge upper line di 9,385 pekan ini. Perkiraan range hari ini: 8700-8950.
Rekomendasi : Buy break 8,930 target 9,130, stop 100 poin.
KSM9
Commentary
Secara teknikal, KSM9 masih berada dalam pola uptrend, didukung pola uptrend channel dalam ascending triangle daily menunjukkan continuation bullish pattern, selama ditutup diatas support line di 172.50 untuk target 178.80. Signal di stochastic oscilator menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas (tidak lagi overbought), meski ADX daily mengarah turun (lemah) dan pola candle bearish two crows, seharusnya menunjukkan indeks masih berada dalam pola konsolidasi dalam trend bullish. Trend jangka pendek dapat berbalik arah jika support di 168.05 (100% fibonacci expansion) ditembus, target 162.54/156.86 (61.8 Fibonacci Expansion). Low kemarin masih berada di atas support downtrendline 171,40, memberikan support untuk mencoba rebound ke trendline 174.40, bilamana ditutup di level tersebut, akan melanjutkan uptrend ke target 177.50. Perkiraan range hari Senin: 172.80-179.00.
Rekomendasi : Buy break 174.50 target 177.00, stop 100p
HSIJ9
Commentary
Secara teknikal, HSIJ9 menunjukkan signal bearish meski masih berada dalam trend bullish jangka pendek karena adanya berada di dalam uptrend channel dan rising wedge di daily chart, karena signal 20 & 35 day MA terlihat crossing, diikuti pola spinning top di daily chart, ditutup dibawah down trendline (rising wedge) 15,067, yang seharusnya mendukung strategy sell on rally karena MACD masih menunjukkan trend bullish. Kondisi tersebut didukung oleh stochastic mengarah turun dibawah level 50, dan ADX menunjukkan penurunan, menunjukkan indikasi potensi kenaikan terlihat terbatas, dapat mengarahkan indeks ke target 14,657 (50% fibo retracement 13420-15982)/13,927 (35-day MA). Tetapi karena adanya pola inverted head & shoulder, yang seharusnya mendukung perkiraan neckline di 15,980 akan menjadi strong resistance pada pekan ini. Perkiraan range hari ini: 14700-15380.
Rekomendasi : Sell 15,380 target 14,900, stop 100 poin.
www.strategydesk.co.id
Commentary
Secara teknikal, SSIM9 masih berada dalam kondisi uptrend terlihat dari indikator MACD yang masih berada di teritorial bullish, penutupan diatas 35-day MA di 8,387, diikuti pola rising wedge yang seharusnya mempertahankan pola kenaikan selama ditutup diatas 8,760 meski dibayangi oleh pola candle hanging man yang menunjukkan indikasi minor bearish reversal, setidaknya masih mendukung pola konsolidasi (indikator ADX terlihat lemah) dalam kondisi stochastic yang bearish. Tembusnya small downchannel support line di 8,730 dan resistance 8,8815 merupakan false break, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan konsolidasi pada hari Selasa. Jika SSIM9 ditutup dibawah support line 8,515, trend jangka pendek akan berubah menjadi netral, target 8,060/7,600. Penutupan harian diatas 8,920 seharusnya mengarahkan indeks ke target rising wedge upper line di 9,385 pekan ini. Perkiraan range hari ini: 8700-8950.
Rekomendasi : Buy break 8,930 target 9,130, stop 100 poin.
KSM9
Commentary
Secara teknikal, KSM9 masih berada dalam pola uptrend, didukung pola uptrend channel dalam ascending triangle daily menunjukkan continuation bullish pattern, selama ditutup diatas support line di 172.50 untuk target 178.80. Signal di stochastic oscilator menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas (tidak lagi overbought), meski ADX daily mengarah turun (lemah) dan pola candle bearish two crows, seharusnya menunjukkan indeks masih berada dalam pola konsolidasi dalam trend bullish. Trend jangka pendek dapat berbalik arah jika support di 168.05 (100% fibonacci expansion) ditembus, target 162.54/156.86 (61.8 Fibonacci Expansion). Low kemarin masih berada di atas support downtrendline 171,40, memberikan support untuk mencoba rebound ke trendline 174.40, bilamana ditutup di level tersebut, akan melanjutkan uptrend ke target 177.50. Perkiraan range hari Senin: 172.80-179.00.
Rekomendasi : Buy break 174.50 target 177.00, stop 100p
HSIJ9
Commentary
Secara teknikal, HSIJ9 menunjukkan signal bearish meski masih berada dalam trend bullish jangka pendek karena adanya berada di dalam uptrend channel dan rising wedge di daily chart, karena signal 20 & 35 day MA terlihat crossing, diikuti pola spinning top di daily chart, ditutup dibawah down trendline (rising wedge) 15,067, yang seharusnya mendukung strategy sell on rally karena MACD masih menunjukkan trend bullish. Kondisi tersebut didukung oleh stochastic mengarah turun dibawah level 50, dan ADX menunjukkan penurunan, menunjukkan indikasi potensi kenaikan terlihat terbatas, dapat mengarahkan indeks ke target 14,657 (50% fibo retracement 13420-15982)/13,927 (35-day MA). Tetapi karena adanya pola inverted head & shoulder, yang seharusnya mendukung perkiraan neckline di 15,980 akan menjadi strong resistance pada pekan ini. Perkiraan range hari ini: 14700-15380.
Rekomendasi : Sell 15,380 target 14,900, stop 100 poin.
www.strategydesk.co.id
Monday, April 27, 2009
Gold Double Bottom Triggers Strong Bull Run
By: Clive_Maund
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLast week gold rallied away from the danger zone, leaving behind a fine small Double bottom on its chart, and it is now shaping up to begin a strong run. On the 6-month chart we can see that gold honored the support described as being of key importance in the last update, rallying away from its early April low and its 200-day moving average to approach the return line of the downtrend channel shown. This is positive action that has created a cushion for those long gold.
Although it has yet to break out from the downtrend, the completion of the Double Bottom and the bullish MACD cross through its moving average shown at the bottom of the chart is a clear sign that such a breakout is probably pending. Gold is now somewhat overbought after its gains of last week, so it is quite likely that it will back off from the upper red trendline before breaking out, although there is no guarantee of this. Once it does break out, a rapid advance to challenge the highs is to be expected. Note that the intraday spike down on Friday did not occur - it is a data error. Possible tactics for would-be buyers include buying on a pullback from the red return line, or waiting for the breakout and then buying on a pullback towards the trendline, should one occur.
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleLast week gold rallied away from the danger zone, leaving behind a fine small Double bottom on its chart, and it is now shaping up to begin a strong run. On the 6-month chart we can see that gold honored the support described as being of key importance in the last update, rallying away from its early April low and its 200-day moving average to approach the return line of the downtrend channel shown. This is positive action that has created a cushion for those long gold.
Although it has yet to break out from the downtrend, the completion of the Double Bottom and the bullish MACD cross through its moving average shown at the bottom of the chart is a clear sign that such a breakout is probably pending. Gold is now somewhat overbought after its gains of last week, so it is quite likely that it will back off from the upper red trendline before breaking out, although there is no guarantee of this. Once it does break out, a rapid advance to challenge the highs is to be expected. Note that the intraday spike down on Friday did not occur - it is a data error. Possible tactics for would-be buyers include buying on a pullback from the red return line, or waiting for the breakout and then buying on a pullback towards the trendline, should one occur.
JP Morgan Collapse Could Trigger Next Global Stock Market Crash
By: Brian_Bloom
Stock-Markets Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn summary, this article concludes that the probability of another stock market crash within the foreseeable future is very high. The word “crash” is used advisedly. Since early March 2009, the industrial equity markets have been rising on misplaced hope. When that hope is dashed – as looks highly probable – the consequence is likely to be a wave of selling pressure given that the credibility of the financial authorities will have been shattered.At the heart of the modern financial “Establishment” lies JP Morgan. This is not a Conspiracy Theorist statement. It is a statement of fact. According to some, JPM is the biggest player in the Derivatives industry, world-wide. Figures of between $600 trillion and a Quadrillion dollars have been bandied about by those who seek to quantify the size of that industry. It really doesn’t matter which number is more accurate. To this analyst, both numbers are equally mystifying so let’s just stay focused on the principle, which is this: Where goes JPM, there goes the US (and, possibly, the World) economy.
For this reason, the fundamental and technical health of JPM is critically important.
“Meanwhile, based on fourth quarter Fed data, we find that, among the nation’s megabanks, six are at risk of failure in our opinion (seven if you count Wachovia and Wells Fargo as separate institutions).JPMorgan Chase is the nation’s largest, with $1.7 trillion in assets in its primary banking unit. It’s massively exposed to defaults by its trading partners in derivatives — to the tune of 382 percent (almost four times) its risk-based capital. Plus, since it holds HALF of ALL the derivatives in the U.S. banking industry, JPMorgan is at ground zero in the debt crisis. “
Stock-Markets Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn summary, this article concludes that the probability of another stock market crash within the foreseeable future is very high. The word “crash” is used advisedly. Since early March 2009, the industrial equity markets have been rising on misplaced hope. When that hope is dashed – as looks highly probable – the consequence is likely to be a wave of selling pressure given that the credibility of the financial authorities will have been shattered.At the heart of the modern financial “Establishment” lies JP Morgan. This is not a Conspiracy Theorist statement. It is a statement of fact. According to some, JPM is the biggest player in the Derivatives industry, world-wide. Figures of between $600 trillion and a Quadrillion dollars have been bandied about by those who seek to quantify the size of that industry. It really doesn’t matter which number is more accurate. To this analyst, both numbers are equally mystifying so let’s just stay focused on the principle, which is this: Where goes JPM, there goes the US (and, possibly, the World) economy.
For this reason, the fundamental and technical health of JPM is critically important.
“Meanwhile, based on fourth quarter Fed data, we find that, among the nation’s megabanks, six are at risk of failure in our opinion (seven if you count Wachovia and Wells Fargo as separate institutions).JPMorgan Chase is the nation’s largest, with $1.7 trillion in assets in its primary banking unit. It’s massively exposed to defaults by its trading partners in derivatives — to the tune of 382 percent (almost four times) its risk-based capital. Plus, since it holds HALF of ALL the derivatives in the U.S. banking industry, JPMorgan is at ground zero in the debt crisis. “
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