USD Index 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low EUR-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
84.33 (+54) 89.62 (08/03) 79.63 (04/01) 1.3259 1.4055 (02/01) 1.2459 (04/03)
Dolar AS mengalami penguatan di sesi Asia pada hari ini, berkat investor kembali melakukan risk aversion setelah komentar Chairman Fed Bernanke bahwa pemulihan ekonomi AS akan berjalan lambat di akhir tahun ini dan laporan Bank of America mungkin memerlukan tambahan dana sebesar $ 34 miliar dalam hasil Strest Test AS yang akan diumumkan besok. Dolar juga menguat terhadap euro berkat spekulasi penurunan suku bunga ECB besok dimana menurunkan perbedaan tingkat suku bunga dengan AS, mendorong investor melakukan aksi profit-taking posisi long (buy) euro. Sebelumnya semalam, dolar ditutup mix, menguat terhadap euro dan Swiss franc, tetapi melemah terhadap pound sterling, dolar Australia dan dolar Selandia Baru. Perdagangan berlangsung choppy karena investor masih wait & see menjelang hasil Strest Test 19 bank AS dan pertemuan ECB besok. Data ekonomi masih memberikan kejutan peningkatan, menunjukkan krisis ekonomi yang terburuk mungkin akan segera berakhir. Indeks ISM Services AS bulan April meningkat ke 43.7 dari 40.8 di Februari. Chairman Fed Bernanke juga berhati-hati optimis mengenai pandangan ekonomi, ekonomi AS tengah mengalami pemulihan meski rebound akan lambat dan tingkat pengangguran masih akan naik. Malam ini, pasar akan mengamati data ADP Employment yang dapat memberikan petunjuk untuk payroll hari Jumat.
Euro mendapatkan tekanan jual di sesi perdagangan Asia hari ini, berkat investor kembali melakukan risk aversion berkat komentar Fed Bernanke yang memberikan signal pemulihan ekonomi AS akan lambat dan laporan Bank of America mungkin memerlukan dana tambahan $ 34 miliar untuk memenuhi target mark-to market the Fed akan dirilis hasilnya besok. Spekulasi penurunan suku bunga ECB sebesar 25 bsp menjadi 1.00%, karena projeksi pertumbuhan euro diturunkan Komisi Eropa untuk tahun 2009/2010 dan kemungkinan ECB akan mengumumkan pembelian obligasi negara untuk menurunkan suku bunga pinjaman. Euro melemah dari level tertinggi 1-bulan terhadap dolar karena kekhawatiran investor kembali muncul. Investor melakukan aksi profit-taking menjelang pertemuan ECB dan pengumuman hasil Uji Kelayakan (Strest Test) 19 bank AS. Euro capai level terendah 1.3283 sebelum akhirnya rebound di penutupan pasar d 1.3313. Sementara, tekanan inflasi di euro mereda dan aktifitas ekonomi masih lemah, mendorong investor memperkirakan ECB menurunkan suku bunga 25 bsp dan mengimplementasikan ukuran yang tidak lazim seperti Quantitative easing. Kejutan pemulihan data ADP Employment dapat menekan euro hari ini.
USD-JPY 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low GBP-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
98.09 101.45 (06/04) 87.15 (21/01) 1.5008 1.5372 (08/01) 1.3502 (23/01)
Yen menguat terhadap dolar dan euro, berkat investor kembali melakukan risk aversion berkat komentar Fed Bernanke yang memberikan signal pemulihan ekonomi AS akan lambat dan laporan Bank of America mungkin memerlukan dana tambahan $ 34 miliar untuk memenuhi target mark-to market the Fed akan dirilis hasilnya besok. Kondisi tersebut meningkatkan permintaan mata uang safe haven seperti yen dan dolar. Yen juga mnguat berkat spekulasi dari laporan WSJ kemarin bahwa 10 dari 19 bank yang mengikuti hasi uji kelayakan (Strest Test) mungkin memerlukan tambahan dana. Indeks saham Asia Pasifik MSCI tidak termasuk Jepang melemah 0.6 persen pada hari ini setelah indeks Standard & Poors 500 melemah 0.4 persen. Sementara volume perdagangan sepertinya masih di bawah normal karena liburan Golden Week yang berakhir hari ini. Yen masih dapat melanjutkan penguatan terhadap euro dan dolar jika data ADP Employment tecatat lebih rendah dari perkiraan, investor akan risk aversion kembali.
Pound sterling mengalami tekanan terhadap dolar dan yen di sesi Asia hari ini, berkat investor kembali melakukan risk aversion berkat komentar Fed Bernanke yang memberikan signal pemulihan ekonomi AS akan lambat dan laporan Bank of America mungkin memerlukan dana tambahan $ 34 miliar untuk memenuhi target mark-to market the Fed akan dirilis hasilnya besok. Kondisi tersebut meningkatkan permintaan mata uang safe haven seperti yen dan dolar. Pound menguat ke hampir level tertinggi 4-bulan terhadap dolar, karena laporan menunjukkan penurunan di pasar property komersial Inggris dan konstruksi melambat dan imbas dari penguatan saham global. Pound menguat sejak 22 April ketika Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors mengatakan tingkat penurunan permintaan untuk ruang kantor dan ritel Inggris melambat di Q1. Meski spekulasi pertemuan BOE besok diperkirakan tetap mempertahankan suku bunga dan mempertahankan quantitative easing, membebani kinerja pound.
USD-CHF 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low AUD-USD 52-weeks High 52-Weeks Low
1.1366 1.1965 (12/03) 1.0617 (02/01) 0.7362 0.7479 (05/05) 0.6248 (02/02)
Swiss franc mendapatkan tekanan jual terhadap dolar dan euro, berkat investor kembali melakukan risk aversion berkat komentar Fed Bernanke yang memberikan signal pemulihan ekonomi AS akan lambat dan laporan Bank of America mungkin memerlukan dana tambahan $ 34 miliar untuk memenuhi target mark-to market the Fed akan dirilis hasilnya besok. Kondisi tersebut meningkatkan permintaan mata uang safe haven seperti yen dan dolar. Sebelumnya Swiss franc mendapatkan sentiment negatif dari komentar SNB Hildebrand yang menunjukkan komitmen SNB untuk membatasi penguatan Swiss franc terhadap dolar. Lebih baik dari perkiraan data ISM Services AS bulan April, tercatat 43.7 dari 40.8 di bulan Februari, telah melemahkan Swiss franc ke level terendah 1.1361 semalam, meski akhirnya ditutup di 1.1331. Swiss franc dapat melanjutkan pelemahan jika data dari Eropa dan AS hari ini tercatat lebih buruk dari perkiraan pasar, dimana dapat mendorong aksi profit-taking posisi long (buy) CHF dan risk aversion akan kembali mendominasi.
Dolar Australia (Aussie) melemah ke level terendah 7 bulan terhadap dolar, karena investor kembali melakukan risk aversion berkat komentar Fed Bernanke yang memberikan signal pemulihan ekonomi AS akan lambat dan laporan Bank of America mungkin memerlukan dana tambahan $ 34 miliar untuk memenuhi target mark-to market the Fed akan dirilis hasilnya besok. Kondisi tersebut meningkatkan permintaan mata uang safe haven seperti yen dan dolar. Dolar Selandia Baru ikut terkoreksi. Laporan IMF untuk pertumbuhan ekonomi di Asia temasuk Jepang, Australia dan Selandia Baru, mungkin melambat ke 1.3 %di tahun ini dari 5.1% di tahun 2008. Ekonomi akan berekspansi 4.3 persen di 2010, meskiupun pemulihan diperkirakan menjadi “tepid”. Dolar Selandia Baru meemah berkat spekulasi data pengangguran Selandia Baru akan meningkat ke 5.3% di Q1 dan Aussie akan terkoreksi berkat spekulasi pengangguran akan meningkat ke 5.9%. Meski aussie mendapatkan Retail Sales meningkat 2.2 persen dari Februari, dari perkiraan 0.5 persen. Sementara data ADP Employment dapat memicu kembali risk aversion.
Technical Analysis
(Hold buy 1.3280 target 1.3400, stop dibawah 1.3200). Euro menunjukkan mulai memberikan signal negatif dari pola candle bearish harami dan inverted H&S yang menunjukkan neckline berada di 1.3425. meski indikator MACD masih bullish, stochastic crossing up dan ADX mengalami penurunan dalam formasi daily uptrend channel, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan potensi penurunan euro terbatas pada hari ini. Trend bullish selama masih ditutup diatas 1.3220 (35-day MA). Buy dibawah 1.3150 target 1.3400 stop di bawah 1.3100. Sell diatas 1.3450 target 1.3250.
(Hold buy 98.00 target 99.20) USD-JPY masih berada dalam formasi bullish (uptrend channel) meski menunjukkan head & soldier di daily chart seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan pada hari ini, didukung oleh pola pennant yang seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan dalam beberapa hari mendatang, terutama jika gagal ditutup harian diatas 96.49, untuk kembali ke target support 93.80/90.20. potensi kenaikan terbatas di trendline 99.32. Sell 99.20 target 97.30 stop 99.70 (reverse buy jika break).
(+70p) GBP-USD masih menunjukkan uptrend jangka pendek, karena masih berada dalam pola rising wedge dalam formasi ascending triangle, untuk mencoba trendline 1.5144/1.5339 (100.0 FE), selama ditutup harian diatas 1.4659 (suport line). Indikator ADX trend up, MACD bullish, stochastic menunjukkan 2 line crossing flat di posisi netral, seharusnya masih mendkung potensi kenaikan hari ini. Kendati pola candle evening star, dapat menahan laju kenaikan. Sell di bawah 1.4980 target 1.4900, stop 50poin, sell diatas 1.5140 target 1.4900, stop diatas 1.5200.
AUD-USD mulai menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle doji star rejection di 0.7500, yang mendukung potensi koreksi minor yang terbatas, karena trend jangka pendek masih uptrend berkat indikator MACD yang bullish, stochastic kendati crossing masih berada di teritorial bullish, ADX menunjukkan flat dalam penurunan harga 2 hari terakhir, dan penutupan harga diatas 61.8% FE di 0.7245 & 10 day MA. Formasi ascending triangle ikut menopang kinerja AUD-USD pada pekan ini. Buy 0.7245 target 0.7420/0.7500 stop dibawah 0.7170. Sell 0.7470 diatas target 0.7300 stop diatas 0.7500.
Wednesday, May 6, 2009
Tuesday, May 5, 2009
IHSG Masih Berpotensi Terkoreksi
Market Review
Aksi profit-taking melanda IHSG kemarin, setelah BI rate terpangkas 25 bsp (7.25%) sesuai dengan perkiraan (sell on the news), mendorong sejumlah saham unggulan (perbankan, infrastruktur) terkoreksi setelah mengalami kenaikan yang terlalu cepat beberapa hari terakhir. Laporan Wall Street Journal mengenai perkiraan hasil Strest Test 19 Bank dirilis hari Kamis dan menjelang testimony Fed Ben Bernanke kemarin, sempat menekan saham regional Asia dari level tertinggi, ikut mendorong terkoreksinya IHSG, meski laju penurunan tertahan oleh kenaikan saham komoditi, manufaktur dan aneka industri. IHSG sempat mencapai level tertinggi 1,823.38 di awal sesi, mengikuti kenaikan saham Wall Street (04/05), berkat positifnya laporan perumahan AS. IHSG ditutup melemah 16.077 poin (-0.9%) di 1,772.07, nilai transaksi Rp 7.06 triliun. Investor asing mencatat net buy sebesar Rp 663 miliar kemarin.
Indeks saham MSCI menguat kemarin, melanjutkan kenaikan yang menghapus penurunan saham global di tahun ini, karena lebih baik dari perkiraan data perumahan AS dan rekomendasi JP Morgan bahwa saham Asia (ex Jepang: overweight Korea, Thailand, Taiwan & China) masih dapat menguat 18%.
IHSG Outlook
IHSG dapat mengalami tekanan akibat aksi profit-taking hari ini, berkat aksi profit-taking di sejumlah saham unggulan berada dalam kondisi overbought dan kekhawatiran menjelang rilisan laporan penting global di akhir pekan ini, seperti hasil uji kelayakan 19 bank AS (Strest Test), pertemuan bank sentral Eropa (perkiraan cut 25 bsp) hari Kamis dan laporan tenaga kerja AS diperkirakan menunjukkan tingkat pengangguran mencapai level tertinggi 25-tahun, dapat mendorong kembali risk aversion diantara investor lokal. Meski potensi koreksi penurunan terbatas, berkat positifnya pemotongan suku bunga BI (-25bsp menjadi 7.25%), cadangan devisa RI meningkat menjadi $ 56.67 miliar di akhir April, penguatan rupiah ke Rp 10,400/dolar dan kenaikan harga komoditi, dapat menopang saham perbankan, komoditi, industri dan perdagangan.
Stock Picks:
* BDMN
* SMGR
Global Outlook
Lebih baiknya earnings saham global di Q1 2009, kenaikan harga komoditi (indeks CRB meningkat 3.34%), penurunan 3-month Libor dibawah 1%, komentar Fed Bernanke: ekonomi akan mulai tumbuh di tahun ini dan “housing is bottoming” dan ISM Services AS naik ke 43.7 kemarin, seharusnya menopang kinerja indeks saham regional Asia, meski dibayangi potensi profit-taking berkat signal teknikal overbought dan menjelang rilisan hasil Strest Test 19 bank (07/05), dapat mendorong risk aversion di akhir pekan.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG mulai mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola candle menunjukkan evening star, gagal menembus trendline di diagonal triangle di 1,825, penurunan dengan volume tertinggi, ADX trending up dan stochastic menunjukkan bearish divergence dan crossing down dari overbought, seharusnya mendorong perkiraan penurunan hari ini dan membatasi potensi kenaikan kendati masih berada dalam uptrend jangka pendek, selama masih ditutup harian diatas 5-day MA di 1,732 dan FE 100.0 di 1,709 untuk target 1,833/1,372 (trendline) dan bahkan target 3 bulan di 1,958 (50.0% fibo retracement). Potensi koreksi minor dapat mencapai support 1,754/1,708. Elliot wave menunjukkan sub wave v telah selesai, mengarah ke koreksi abc-wave 4 dalam primary wave C.
Resistance: 1848.88/1829.68/1810.47/1797.73. PP 1784.98
Support : 1765.78/1746.57/1733.83/1721.08
(Perkiraan Range Hari Ini 1,740-1,800)
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Aksi profit-taking melanda IHSG kemarin, setelah BI rate terpangkas 25 bsp (7.25%) sesuai dengan perkiraan (sell on the news), mendorong sejumlah saham unggulan (perbankan, infrastruktur) terkoreksi setelah mengalami kenaikan yang terlalu cepat beberapa hari terakhir. Laporan Wall Street Journal mengenai perkiraan hasil Strest Test 19 Bank dirilis hari Kamis dan menjelang testimony Fed Ben Bernanke kemarin, sempat menekan saham regional Asia dari level tertinggi, ikut mendorong terkoreksinya IHSG, meski laju penurunan tertahan oleh kenaikan saham komoditi, manufaktur dan aneka industri. IHSG sempat mencapai level tertinggi 1,823.38 di awal sesi, mengikuti kenaikan saham Wall Street (04/05), berkat positifnya laporan perumahan AS. IHSG ditutup melemah 16.077 poin (-0.9%) di 1,772.07, nilai transaksi Rp 7.06 triliun. Investor asing mencatat net buy sebesar Rp 663 miliar kemarin.
Indeks saham MSCI menguat kemarin, melanjutkan kenaikan yang menghapus penurunan saham global di tahun ini, karena lebih baik dari perkiraan data perumahan AS dan rekomendasi JP Morgan bahwa saham Asia (ex Jepang: overweight Korea, Thailand, Taiwan & China) masih dapat menguat 18%.
IHSG Outlook
IHSG dapat mengalami tekanan akibat aksi profit-taking hari ini, berkat aksi profit-taking di sejumlah saham unggulan berada dalam kondisi overbought dan kekhawatiran menjelang rilisan laporan penting global di akhir pekan ini, seperti hasil uji kelayakan 19 bank AS (Strest Test), pertemuan bank sentral Eropa (perkiraan cut 25 bsp) hari Kamis dan laporan tenaga kerja AS diperkirakan menunjukkan tingkat pengangguran mencapai level tertinggi 25-tahun, dapat mendorong kembali risk aversion diantara investor lokal. Meski potensi koreksi penurunan terbatas, berkat positifnya pemotongan suku bunga BI (-25bsp menjadi 7.25%), cadangan devisa RI meningkat menjadi $ 56.67 miliar di akhir April, penguatan rupiah ke Rp 10,400/dolar dan kenaikan harga komoditi, dapat menopang saham perbankan, komoditi, industri dan perdagangan.
Stock Picks:
* BDMN
* SMGR
Global Outlook
Lebih baiknya earnings saham global di Q1 2009, kenaikan harga komoditi (indeks CRB meningkat 3.34%), penurunan 3-month Libor dibawah 1%, komentar Fed Bernanke: ekonomi akan mulai tumbuh di tahun ini dan “housing is bottoming” dan ISM Services AS naik ke 43.7 kemarin, seharusnya menopang kinerja indeks saham regional Asia, meski dibayangi potensi profit-taking berkat signal teknikal overbought dan menjelang rilisan hasil Strest Test 19 bank (07/05), dapat mendorong risk aversion di akhir pekan.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG mulai mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola candle menunjukkan evening star, gagal menembus trendline di diagonal triangle di 1,825, penurunan dengan volume tertinggi, ADX trending up dan stochastic menunjukkan bearish divergence dan crossing down dari overbought, seharusnya mendorong perkiraan penurunan hari ini dan membatasi potensi kenaikan kendati masih berada dalam uptrend jangka pendek, selama masih ditutup harian diatas 5-day MA di 1,732 dan FE 100.0 di 1,709 untuk target 1,833/1,372 (trendline) dan bahkan target 3 bulan di 1,958 (50.0% fibo retracement). Potensi koreksi minor dapat mencapai support 1,754/1,708. Elliot wave menunjukkan sub wave v telah selesai, mengarah ke koreksi abc-wave 4 dalam primary wave C.
Resistance: 1848.88/1829.68/1810.47/1797.73. PP 1784.98
Support : 1765.78/1746.57/1733.83/1721.08
(Perkiraan Range Hari Ini 1,740-1,800)
www.strategydesk.co.id
www.universalbroker.co.id
China Stocks ‘Bubble’ Ready to Burst, Galaxy Says
(Bloomberg) -- China is at risk of a stock market “bubble” that may burst as investor confidence in the nation’s economic recovery weakens and bank lending slows, according to China Galaxy Securities Co., the nation’s largest brokerage.The Shanghai Composite Index has surged 50 percent since last year’s low on Nov. 4 amid signs the government’s stimulus measures are reviving the world’s third-largest economy. The gains have driven valuations on the index to 27.2 times earnings, the highest in a year and Asia’s third most expensive. These levels are “signs of a bubble,” Galaxy Securities strategists led by Teng Tai wrote in a report.
“China’s economy has bottomed but the recovery may be weaker than forecast,” the analysts said today. “Bank lending will have to slow down. This will cap the growth in money supply and affect the supply of funds for the stock market.”
China’s investors flocked to equities this year on optimism 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) of government spending, five interest-rate cuts since September and a record 4.58 trillion yuan of new bank lending in the first quarter would cushion the economy from the global recession and bolster corporate earnings.At the peak, investors opened more than 480,000 new share trading accounts in the week to Feb. 20, the fastest pace in 13 months and double the average in the past year. That figure dropped to 338,719 in the week to April 24, the most recent data.
‘Be Defensive’
“Investors should be defensive and cut equities exposure,” the Galaxy Securities analysts wrote, saying the market is likely to undergo a “N-shaped” trend.New loans dwindled to 400 billion yuan last month, Caijing magazine reported yesterday. Earnings have yet to recover. Net income at the 1,624 companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges fell 26 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the Shanghai Securities News reported May 4.“I’d be cautious on the A-share market, which has seen a sustained run,” George Hoguet, global investment strategist at Boston-based State Street Global Advisors, said April 20, referring to China’s local-currency stocks. “For China’s rally to continue, we need to see improving macroeconomic data coming not just out of China, but a slowdown in the rate of decline in the U.S.”China’s economy grew at 6.1 percent in the three months to March 31, the slowest pace in almost a decade, as recessions in the U.S., Europe and Japan curbed demand for the nation’s exports. The U.S. economy contracted at a 6.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter and 6.1 percent in the first three months of 2009, according to the U.S. government.
Developers Surge
Property stocks paced gains on the Chinese index this year on speculation demand for housing will recover. Poly Real Estate Group Co., China’s second-biggest publicly traded developer, jumped 83 percent. The company said yesterday apartment sales in the first four months of the year tripled.The Shanghai index advanced 0.3 percent to 2,567.34 at the 3 p.m. close today.Galaxy Securities joins China Asset Management Co., the nation’s biggest fund company, in saying the country’s stocks are overvalued. Wang Yawei, who oversees China Asset’s investment committee, pared his equity holdings in the first quarter and said last month the stock market was driven by “speculative trading.”This isn’t the first time a surging Chinese stock market has drawn warnings over valuations. In mid-2007, when the Shanghai Composite was priced at about 40 times earnings, investor Marc Faber, former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and Li Ka-shing, Asia’s richest man, all warned of a “bubble.”The index gained a further 59 percent between the end of June 2007 and its peak of 6,092.06 on Oct. 16, 2007, when stocks fetched 48.7 times earnings. The gauge plunged 72 percent to the trough on Nov. 4 as the global recession cut the country’s growth.
“China’s economy has bottomed but the recovery may be weaker than forecast,” the analysts said today. “Bank lending will have to slow down. This will cap the growth in money supply and affect the supply of funds for the stock market.”
China’s investors flocked to equities this year on optimism 4 trillion yuan ($585 billion) of government spending, five interest-rate cuts since September and a record 4.58 trillion yuan of new bank lending in the first quarter would cushion the economy from the global recession and bolster corporate earnings.At the peak, investors opened more than 480,000 new share trading accounts in the week to Feb. 20, the fastest pace in 13 months and double the average in the past year. That figure dropped to 338,719 in the week to April 24, the most recent data.
‘Be Defensive’
“Investors should be defensive and cut equities exposure,” the Galaxy Securities analysts wrote, saying the market is likely to undergo a “N-shaped” trend.New loans dwindled to 400 billion yuan last month, Caijing magazine reported yesterday. Earnings have yet to recover. Net income at the 1,624 companies listed on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges fell 26 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the Shanghai Securities News reported May 4.“I’d be cautious on the A-share market, which has seen a sustained run,” George Hoguet, global investment strategist at Boston-based State Street Global Advisors, said April 20, referring to China’s local-currency stocks. “For China’s rally to continue, we need to see improving macroeconomic data coming not just out of China, but a slowdown in the rate of decline in the U.S.”China’s economy grew at 6.1 percent in the three months to March 31, the slowest pace in almost a decade, as recessions in the U.S., Europe and Japan curbed demand for the nation’s exports. The U.S. economy contracted at a 6.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter and 6.1 percent in the first three months of 2009, according to the U.S. government.
Developers Surge
Property stocks paced gains on the Chinese index this year on speculation demand for housing will recover. Poly Real Estate Group Co., China’s second-biggest publicly traded developer, jumped 83 percent. The company said yesterday apartment sales in the first four months of the year tripled.The Shanghai index advanced 0.3 percent to 2,567.34 at the 3 p.m. close today.Galaxy Securities joins China Asset Management Co., the nation’s biggest fund company, in saying the country’s stocks are overvalued. Wang Yawei, who oversees China Asset’s investment committee, pared his equity holdings in the first quarter and said last month the stock market was driven by “speculative trading.”This isn’t the first time a surging Chinese stock market has drawn warnings over valuations. In mid-2007, when the Shanghai Composite was priced at about 40 times earnings, investor Marc Faber, former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan and Li Ka-shing, Asia’s richest man, all warned of a “bubble.”The index gained a further 59 percent between the end of June 2007 and its peak of 6,092.06 on Oct. 16, 2007, when stocks fetched 48.7 times earnings. The gauge plunged 72 percent to the trough on Nov. 4 as the global recession cut the country’s growth.
Asian Stocks May Rise a Further 18%, JPMorgan Says
(Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks outside Japan may rally a further 18 percent, helped by low interest rates, stimulus spending by governments and increased demand for riskier assets, JPMorgan Chase & Co. said.The MSCI Asia-Pacific excluding Japan Index may rise to 350, analysts led by Adrian Mowat said in a report, without stating their previous target. The gauge closed at 295.74 yesterday. Investors should be “overweight” in South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and China, the report said.The MSCI regional index has rebounded 20 percent this year after slumping a record 53 percent in 2008, outpacing the 0.4 percent increase in the MSCI World Index. Chinese stocks are the region’s best performers this year, as a 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) government stimulus package shielded the economy.
“China has led the recovery in both markets and economies,” the analysts wrote. “As China discounts its economic recovery we are reallocating capital to other North Asian economies that are later in the recovery phase.”The CLSA China Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 50.1 in April, signaling the first manufacturing growth in nine months, a report showed yesterday.
Chinese Banks
Investors should buy shares of Chinese banks, as well as financial stocks in Asia, as emerging markets outpace the recovery in developed economies, Mowat said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. He also recommended consumer stocks including Chinese carmakers, without naming specific companies. They should avoid so-called defensive stocks.
“Our advice is you must sell your defensive stocks,” he said from Hong Kong. “That was correct in a bear market, that’s not correct in a recovery trend.”
He also said the MSCI Emerging Markets Index may reach his year-end target of 900 ahead of his prediction as economic data, such as China’s manufacturing figures, point to a recovery. The measure rose 0.9 percent to 707.20 as of 10:43 a.m. in Singapore, the highest since Oct. 3.The index has risen 9.7 percent since Mowat set his year- end target for the gauge on April 16, compared with the 7 percent gain in the MSCI World Index of developed markets.
‘Tail Winds’
“There are some very substantial tail winds for emerging markets,” Mowat said in the interview, citing improving ties between China and Taiwan.Emerging-market stocks may “break out” into a bull market at the end of the year as falling interest rates and easing inflation make equities more attractive, Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius said on May 3.Mobius reiterated that emerging markets are “building a base” for the next rally. Chrysler LLC’s bankruptcy filing and other “short-term risks” may hold back the rally, while speculators may bet stocks will fall, he said.
Developing markets made up all 10 of the best-performing stock indexes in 2009, led by Peru and China.
“China has led the recovery in both markets and economies,” the analysts wrote. “As China discounts its economic recovery we are reallocating capital to other North Asian economies that are later in the recovery phase.”The CLSA China Purchasing Managers’ Index rose to a seasonally adjusted 50.1 in April, signaling the first manufacturing growth in nine months, a report showed yesterday.
Chinese Banks
Investors should buy shares of Chinese banks, as well as financial stocks in Asia, as emerging markets outpace the recovery in developed economies, Mowat said in a Bloomberg Television interview today. He also recommended consumer stocks including Chinese carmakers, without naming specific companies. They should avoid so-called defensive stocks.
“Our advice is you must sell your defensive stocks,” he said from Hong Kong. “That was correct in a bear market, that’s not correct in a recovery trend.”
He also said the MSCI Emerging Markets Index may reach his year-end target of 900 ahead of his prediction as economic data, such as China’s manufacturing figures, point to a recovery. The measure rose 0.9 percent to 707.20 as of 10:43 a.m. in Singapore, the highest since Oct. 3.The index has risen 9.7 percent since Mowat set his year- end target for the gauge on April 16, compared with the 7 percent gain in the MSCI World Index of developed markets.
‘Tail Winds’
“There are some very substantial tail winds for emerging markets,” Mowat said in the interview, citing improving ties between China and Taiwan.Emerging-market stocks may “break out” into a bull market at the end of the year as falling interest rates and easing inflation make equities more attractive, Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius said on May 3.Mobius reiterated that emerging markets are “building a base” for the next rally. Chrysler LLC’s bankruptcy filing and other “short-term risks” may hold back the rally, while speculators may bet stocks will fall, he said.
Developing markets made up all 10 of the best-performing stock indexes in 2009, led by Peru and China.
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