Market Review
IHSG akhirnya berhasil ditutup menguat di akhir penutupan pasar hari Selasa (12/05), tertolong oleh kenaikan di sejumlah saham grup Bakrie yang masih melanjutkan trend kenaikan dan saham komoditi (logam dan energi) mendapatkan support dari harga minyak yang mencapai tertinggi $ 60.08 kemarin. Kenaikan saham telekomunikasi dan property ikut membatasi penurunan saham grup Astra, perkebunan, aneka industri dan keuangan. IHSG ditutup menguat 11.28 poin (+0.61%) di 1,842.02, sempat mengalami perubahan harga penutupan (-3.696 poin di 1827,04), akibat kesalahan data di BEI. Total nilai transaksi di BEI tercatat Rp 6.57 triliun.
Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific ditutup melemah, terkoreksi dari level tertinggi 7-bulan, karena investor menjual saham yang menunjukkan valuasi termahal dalam 5 tahun terakhir dan indeks berada dalam kondisi overbought. Rata-rata valuasi perusahaan di Asia Pacific tercatat 28 x diatas earnings.
IHSG Outlook
IHSG diperkirakan masih berada dalam fase konsolidasi, berkat kenaikan saham grup Bakrie yang beberapa hari terakhir menopang indeks, akan segera berakhir dalam waktu dekat, karena kondisi teknikal overbought dan tidak diikuti solidnya fundamental emiten dari saham grup Bakrie secara keseluruhan. Meski kuatnya inflow ke sejumlah saham di sektor pertambangan, property dan telekomunikasi masih memberikan support kepada IHSG. Penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar terhadap dolar (Rp 10,320 pada penutupan kemarin), perkiraan inflasi yang masih rendah di bulan Mei (dirilis awal Juni) dapat mendorong penurunan suku bunga BI (RDG bulan Juni), menjelang rilisan data GDP Q1 2009 Indonesia yang diperkirakan berada dalam kisaran 3.5-4% Q/Q (dirilis akhir bulan ini) dan situasi politik yang kondusif menunggu cawapres dari partai Demokrat dan partai PDIP dalam menghadapi pilpres 8 Juli, seharusnya masih menopang kinerja indeks dalam waktu dekat ini. Meski kekhawatiran koreksi penurunan di indeks regional Asia dan AS, karena mahalnya valuasi, dapat membebani IHSG.
Stock Picks:
* ENRG
* SULI
Global Outlook
Kekhawatiran investor di Asia dan AS meningkat, berkat kondisi mahalnya mayoritas valuasi saham unggulan berdasarkan price/earning dan perkiraan memburuknya ekonomi global, setelah survei Bloomberg menunjukkan projeksi penurunan untuk pemulihan ekonomi AS hingga tahun 2011 (tingkat pengangguran akan naik ke rata-rata 9.6% di tahun 2010, terkoreksi ke 8.5% di 2011, ekonomi mungkin naik 2.8% di 2011, lebih rendah dari projeksi bulan lalu). Laporan harga rumah median AS mengalami rekor penurunan (-14%: $ 169,000) di Q1 2009, laporan penurunan ekspor AS di bulan Maret dan penjualan saham di 3 emiten di AS, dapat membebani kinerja indeks Asia dan AS yang overbought.
Technical Analysis:
Terjadinya kesalahan input data pada penutupan IHSG dari BEI kemarin, mendorong analisa teknikal UBI tidak akan objective. Berdasarkan penutupan di 1,842.02, seharusnya menunjukkan pola candle thrusting merupakan pola bearish continuation (setelah shooting star 11/05), didukung volume menunjukkan penurunan, ADX berada di level extreme overbought, stochastic menunjukkan bearish divergence, seharusnya mendukung penurunan dalam 1-2 hari ini. Meski MACD masih bullish dan 20 & 200-day MA menunjukkan golden cross sejak pekan lalu, seharusnya masih memberikan support dan memberikan pandangan indeks masih berada dalam konsolidasi. Penutupan dibawah 1,824 (5-day MA) dapat mendorong reversal minor pada pekan ini, target 1,780, sementara potensi kenaikan terbatas di 1,891 (high 11/05)/1,906 (resistance line).
(Perkiraan Range Hari Ini 1,800-1,870)
Wednesday, May 13, 2009
Tuesday, May 12, 2009
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's rally extends further today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rally from 43.83 is expected to extend further to 60 psychological level which is close to 23.6% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 60.12. Firm break there will set the stage for further rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 67.96). On the downside, below 56.70 minor support will turn intraday outlook neutral first and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 50.60 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, the possible five wave structure of the rise from 33.2 and the sustained trading above 55 days EMA is consistent with the view that fall from 147.27 has completed at 33.2. Outlook will now remain bullish as long as 43.83 support holds and crude oil is set to take on next key resistance of 55 weeks EMA at 67.96 and 55 months EMA at 68.74. The development in the next few weeks will be important in determining if the trend in crude oil has reversed or not. In particular, focus will be on the upper channel resistance (now at 64 level) and the mentioned EMA resistance. Strong break there will argue that rise from 33.2 is "accelerating" and thus indicate that it's developing into up trend of a larger scale. However, bounce off from these levels, followed by break of 43.83, will indeed indicate that rise fro 33.2 is merely a correction in the larger down trend only.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's rally extends further today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the upside. Current rally from 43.83 is expected to extend further to 60 psychological level which is close to 23.6% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 60.12. Firm break there will set the stage for further rally towards 55 weeks EMA (now at 67.96). On the downside, below 56.70 minor support will turn intraday outlook neutral first and bring retreat. But downside should be contained above 50.60 support and bring rally resumption.
In the bigger picture, the possible five wave structure of the rise from 33.2 and the sustained trading above 55 days EMA is consistent with the view that fall from 147.27 has completed at 33.2. Outlook will now remain bullish as long as 43.83 support holds and crude oil is set to take on next key resistance of 55 weeks EMA at 67.96 and 55 months EMA at 68.74. The development in the next few weeks will be important in determining if the trend in crude oil has reversed or not. In particular, focus will be on the upper channel resistance (now at 64 level) and the mentioned EMA resistance. Strong break there will argue that rise from 33.2 is "accelerating" and thus indicate that it's developing into up trend of a larger scale. However, bounce off from these levels, followed by break of 43.83, will indeed indicate that rise fro 33.2 is merely a correction in the larger down trend only.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold continues to stay in tight range below 9.265 so far and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Favor is still in the bullish case as long as 880.1 support holds. That is, correction from 1007.7 has completed at 865/865.6 already. This is indeed supported by break of the falling trend line resistance. Further rally should be seen to 967.7 first and then 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone. However, note that upside momentum is so far rather unconvincing. Break of 880.1 will invalidate this view and indicate that correction from 1007.7 is possibly still in progress for 865 and below.
In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 1007.7 so far is consistent with the bullish case. That is, rise from 681 is resumption of long term up trend after triangle consolidation from 1033.9 completed at 681. Retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone should now be seen. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. On the downside, while another fall cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'll hold on to the bullish case as long as 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) remains intact.
However, note that sustained break of 801.50 cluster support will dampen the above preferred view. This will suggest that rise from 681 is not resuming the long term up trend but is merely part of the consolidation from 1033.9. In other words, fall from 1007.7 is part of the consolidation too and could then target 681 low before completion.
Gold continues to stay in tight range below 9.265 so far and intraday bias remains neutral for the moment. Favor is still in the bullish case as long as 880.1 support holds. That is, correction from 1007.7 has completed at 865/865.6 already. This is indeed supported by break of the falling trend line resistance. Further rally should be seen to 967.7 first and then 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone. However, note that upside momentum is so far rather unconvincing. Break of 880.1 will invalidate this view and indicate that correction from 1007.7 is possibly still in progress for 865 and below.
In the bigger picture, the corrective structure of the fall from 1007.7 so far is consistent with the bullish case. That is, rise from 681 is resumption of long term up trend after triangle consolidation from 1033.9 completed at 681. Retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance zone should now be seen. Decisive break there will confirm long term up trend resumption. On the downside, while another fall cannot be ruled out for the moment, we'll hold on to the bullish case as long as 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) remains intact.
However, note that sustained break of 801.50 cluster support will dampen the above preferred view. This will suggest that rise from 681 is not resuming the long term up trend but is merely part of the consolidation from 1033.9. In other words, fall from 1007.7 is part of the consolidation too and could then target 681 low before completion.
Dollar Rally Will End, Rogers Says; May Short Stocks
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar’s rally is set to end in a “currency crisis,” investor Jim Rogers said, adding that he may bet on a slide in equities after nine weeks of gains.
The advance in the U.S. currency has been driven by investors covering their short sales, Rogers, 66, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Singapore. He may consider adding to his holdings of the yen and prefers the euro to the dollar or the pound, the investor added.“We’re going to have a currency crisis, probably this fall or the fall of 2010,” Rogers said. “It’s been building up for a long time. We’ve had a huge rally in the dollar, an artificial rally in the dollar, so it’s time for a currency crisis.”The dollar has climbed against all of the so-called Group of 10 currencies except the yen over the past 12 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The U.S. currency was at $1.3592 per euro today from $1.3582.
Rogers joins “Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb in avoiding the U.S. currency. Taleb told a May 7 conference in Singapore he preferred gold and copper to the dollar and the euro as the global economy faces a “big deflation.”Gains in U.S. stocks also signal a “correction,” Rogers said. He’s avoiding equities for the next two to three years because prospects haven’t changed, he added.
‘Correction’
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has jumped 34 percent from its March 9 low, erasing its losses for the year. The gauge plunged 38 percent in 2008, its worst year since the Great Depression. “The market in the U.S. went up very powerfully for nine weeks in a row so of course it’s time for a correction,” Rogers said. “Fundamentals haven’t changed if you ask me. I don’t see the stock market as a great place to be in the next two to three years.”Rogers said on Feb. 11 he had renewed bets that U.S. stocks including International Business Machines Corp., General Electric Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. will drop. The S&P 500 fell 19 percent before reaching its March low. Equity markets may dip below recent lows as more troubles lay ahead in the financial market, Rogers said in a separate interview on April 13. Rogers is the author of “A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World’s Greatest Market.”“Technical indicators suggest the market is overheating and investors are ready to take profit after recent gains,” Toshio Sumitani, a strategist at Tokai Tokyo Securities Co., said today.
Asian Stocks
Asian stocks fell from a seven-month high, led by banks and mining companies, as investors sold shares trading at their most expensive valuations in five years. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.3 percent to 97.25 as of 1:47 p.m. in Tokyo, snapping a six-day advance.Meredith Whitney, the former Oppenheimer & Co. analyst who predicted a slide in U.S. bank shares, said yesterday she wouldn’t advise investors to short-sell the stocks because of the government’s influence. Still, she wouldn’t own these companies because many banks are sitting on “rotting assets,” Whitney added. She advised short-selling retail and consumer discretionary companies as more jobs are cut and consumer spending declines.Rogers owns some Chinese and Japanese stocks, and also continues to hold some shares of airlines, he said without naming any companies. Stocks in nations such as Canada and Brazil that supply natural resources may also perform better than U.S. shares, Rogers added.Commodities are still among the best bets for investors because of constrained capacity, the investor said. He has been buying agriculture-related commodities and prefers silver to gold, palladium and platinum, Rogers added.
The advance in the U.S. currency has been driven by investors covering their short sales, Rogers, 66, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Singapore. He may consider adding to his holdings of the yen and prefers the euro to the dollar or the pound, the investor added.“We’re going to have a currency crisis, probably this fall or the fall of 2010,” Rogers said. “It’s been building up for a long time. We’ve had a huge rally in the dollar, an artificial rally in the dollar, so it’s time for a currency crisis.”The dollar has climbed against all of the so-called Group of 10 currencies except the yen over the past 12 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The U.S. currency was at $1.3592 per euro today from $1.3582.
Rogers joins “Black Swan” author Nassim Nicholas Taleb in avoiding the U.S. currency. Taleb told a May 7 conference in Singapore he preferred gold and copper to the dollar and the euro as the global economy faces a “big deflation.”Gains in U.S. stocks also signal a “correction,” Rogers said. He’s avoiding equities for the next two to three years because prospects haven’t changed, he added.
‘Correction’
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has jumped 34 percent from its March 9 low, erasing its losses for the year. The gauge plunged 38 percent in 2008, its worst year since the Great Depression. “The market in the U.S. went up very powerfully for nine weeks in a row so of course it’s time for a correction,” Rogers said. “Fundamentals haven’t changed if you ask me. I don’t see the stock market as a great place to be in the next two to three years.”Rogers said on Feb. 11 he had renewed bets that U.S. stocks including International Business Machines Corp., General Electric Co. and JPMorgan Chase & Co. will drop. The S&P 500 fell 19 percent before reaching its March low. Equity markets may dip below recent lows as more troubles lay ahead in the financial market, Rogers said in a separate interview on April 13. Rogers is the author of “A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World’s Greatest Market.”“Technical indicators suggest the market is overheating and investors are ready to take profit after recent gains,” Toshio Sumitani, a strategist at Tokai Tokyo Securities Co., said today.
Asian Stocks
Asian stocks fell from a seven-month high, led by banks and mining companies, as investors sold shares trading at their most expensive valuations in five years. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.3 percent to 97.25 as of 1:47 p.m. in Tokyo, snapping a six-day advance.Meredith Whitney, the former Oppenheimer & Co. analyst who predicted a slide in U.S. bank shares, said yesterday she wouldn’t advise investors to short-sell the stocks because of the government’s influence. Still, she wouldn’t own these companies because many banks are sitting on “rotting assets,” Whitney added. She advised short-selling retail and consumer discretionary companies as more jobs are cut and consumer spending declines.Rogers owns some Chinese and Japanese stocks, and also continues to hold some shares of airlines, he said without naming any companies. Stocks in nations such as Canada and Brazil that supply natural resources may also perform better than U.S. shares, Rogers added.Commodities are still among the best bets for investors because of constrained capacity, the investor said. He has been buying agriculture-related commodities and prefers silver to gold, palladium and platinum, Rogers added.
H Shares Fall on Two-Day Reversal Pattern: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong may extend their losses this week after a benchmark index formed a so-called “two-day reversal” pattern on large volumes, UOB- Kay Hian Holdings Ltd. said. The pattern created by the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index’s candle chart yesterday and on May 8 comes after the index first formed a “hanging man candlestick” last week, signaling an imminent drop, UOB-Kay Hian analyst Barole Shiu wrote in a report today. The pullback is likely to be limited by the index’s 250-day moving average. The Hang Seng China Enterprises, which tracks the H shares of 43 Chinese companies in Hong Kong, dropped 2.9 percent yesterday after a 1.6 percent gain on May 8. The index lost 0.4 percent to 9,724.26 as of 2:48 p.m. in Hong Kong, trimming its gains this year to 23 percent.
“We expect the pullback to be shallow,” the analyst wrote.
A candle chart displays a security’s high, low, open and close for each day, and can signal a reversal of a trend or a continuation. A hangman candle is a pattern that signals an imminent reversal as selling pressure is starting to increase after an advance.The so-called negative divergence of the Hang Seng China Enterprises’ relative strength index, a moving average based on how rapidly prices rise or fall, also adds to signs that the measure is poised for a decline, Shiu said. The index’s RSI touched 70, the level that indicates to some analysts that prices are about to retreat, on May 8.Losses may be limited to 9,442, the index’s 250-day moving average and a 3.3 percent drop from yesterday’s close, with a “small” chance that the gauge will decline beyond 9,181, the analyst wrote.
“We expect the pullback to be shallow,” the analyst wrote.
A candle chart displays a security’s high, low, open and close for each day, and can signal a reversal of a trend or a continuation. A hangman candle is a pattern that signals an imminent reversal as selling pressure is starting to increase after an advance.The so-called negative divergence of the Hang Seng China Enterprises’ relative strength index, a moving average based on how rapidly prices rise or fall, also adds to signs that the measure is poised for a decline, Shiu said. The index’s RSI touched 70, the level that indicates to some analysts that prices are about to retreat, on May 8.Losses may be limited to 9,442, the index’s 250-day moving average and a 3.3 percent drop from yesterday’s close, with a “small” chance that the gauge will decline beyond 9,181, the analyst wrote.
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