Market Review
Aksi penjualan saham di sektor komoditi, perdagangan, property dan konsumer mendorong penurunan IHSG kemarin, setelah harga minyak mengalami penurunan ke $ 69.05/barel dan rupiah masih melanjutkan penurunan terhadap dolar (ditutup di Rp 10,350-Bloomberg kemarin). Dampak dari penurunan harga minyak mendorong aksi penjualan saham komoditi pertambangan batubara dan logam (mengikuti penurunan harga nikel -$325; US$ 14,500, timah -$325; US$ 14,425, emas menjadi US$ 921.30), energi dan perkebunan (cpo kontrak Juli 2009 anjlok Myr 125 menjadi Myr 2,190) dan penurunan saham-saham emiten yang memiliki hutang dalam bentuk USD (INDF, GGRM, ISAT), ikut membebani IHSG, meski sempat menguat di sesi I ke 2,011.70. Indeks anjlok 15.44 poin (-0.77%), ditutup di 1,975,02, nilai transaksi tercatat Rp 3.32 triliun. Net selling investor asing sebesar Rp 45.37 miliar, turun dibanding net sell Rp 139.082 miliar hari Jumat (22/06).
Mayotitas indeks saham di Asia-Pasifik mengalami kenaikan kemarin, setelah laporan ekonomi keyakinan dan manufaktur Jepang membaik di kuartal ini dan spekulasi bank di Cina akan meningkatkan pinjaman, meski laju kenaikan dibatasi oleh World Bank yang menurunkan prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi global 2009.
IHSG Outlook
IHSG masih berpotensi melemah, karena minimnya insentif positif dari dalam negeri, di tengah meningkatnya sentimen negatif dari regional Asia dan kondisi teknikal menunjukkan potensi pembalikan trend dari netral menjadi bearish. Penurunan harga komoditi (minyak akan capai $ 66.8/$ 62.60, isu penjualan emas oleh IMF arahkan emas ke $ 913.9/$865.6) mengacuhkan situasi politik di Iran, negatif untuk saham komoditi lokal (pertambangan, perkebunan dan energi), diikuti trend pelemahan mata uang emerging (KRW, TWD, MYR, Peso) termasuk IDR terhadap dolar (perkiraan outflow dari aset domestik menjelang akhir semester 1 2009, meningkatnya permintaan untuk pembayaran hutang dan faktor technical), membebani IHSG. Meski spekulasi penurunan inflasi, suku bunga BI pekan depan (positif untuk saham perbankan, property,konsumsi) dan the Fed masih mempertahankan suku bunga hari Rabu, dapat menahan laju penurunan IHSG pada hari ini.
Top Pick. Buy on weakness 24/06: BUMI (-10% last week) /BNBR/ENRG/DEWA & MNCN/BMTR. ASII, INKP, HEXA, BBRI, BMRI.
Stock Picks:
* SMMA Hold target Rp 1200
* SMRA Hold target Rp 520
Global Outlook
Meningkatnya sentimen negatif, mendorong potensi penurunan indeks saham global awal pekan ini, setelah World Bank menurunkan prediksi pertumbuhan global tahun ini menjadi -2.9% dari -1.7% di laporan sebelumnya, rapuhnya sistem perbankan AS setelah pekan lalu S&P menurunkan rating kredit 21 bank di AS dan penutupan 3 bank di akhir pekan (total 40 bank di tahun ini), memburuknya situasi di Iran yang memicu dolar AS sebagai mata uang safe haven, indikator CBOE Volatility index (VIX) melonjak melampaui level 30 (ukuran kekhawatiran di Wall Street), mahalnya valuasi saham regional Asia dan AS tidak diimbangi prospek earning, dan aksi profit-taking menjelang pertemuan bank sentral AS (23-24 Juni) dan lelang Treasury AS senilai $ 104 miliar, masih membebani saham global.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG masih menunjukkan potensi penurunan, setelah kemarin menunjukkan pola bearish harami dalam pola bullish pennant , didukung oleh indikator ADX yang terkoreksi turun, MACD masih bullish, menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Trend berbalik menjadi bearish dari netral jika IHSG ditutup dibawah uptrend support di 1,948 hari ini dan 1,898 (support line) berhasil ditembus target 1,911 (76.4 FR)/1,850 (low). Tekanan penurunan dapat diredam jika IHSG kembali ditutup diatas 2,014 (38.2 FE) untuk melanjutkan laju kenaikan. Hitungan Elliot Wave: indeks berada di akhir wave a untuk ke arah wave b dalam proses wave koreksi 4 minor subwave intermediate 4 / (B), selama level 1,948 terjaga, target di 2,116 (high Juni 2009)/2,165 (61.8 % Fibo retracement 1089-2835).
Resistance: 2053.51/2030.35/2016.52/2002.69. PP 1984.04
Support : 1970.21/1956.38/1937.73/1914.57
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 1,920 -2,000)
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Monday, June 22, 2009
Potensi Penurunan Indeks Regional Terbatas Hari Ini
SSIU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
9845 9735 9845 9510 9920 9755 10020 9530 9630 9685 9840 9940 9995
Commentary
Di chart 4 jam, trend bullish jangka pendek indeks SSIU9 terancam berbalik arah, jika indeks ditutup dibawah support line di 9,725, dimana dapat mengarahkan indeks ke support berikutnya di 9653 (50.0 FR)/9503 (support channel). Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan koreksi penurunan, stochastic crossing up dan MACD berada dalam teritorial negatif, dan indeks masih berada dalam downtrend channel, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi kenaikan indeks terbatas hari ini. Daily candle menunjukkan shooting star (high realibility bearish reversal) membebani kinerja trend bullish indeks. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9600-9900.
Rekomendasi : Buy 9640 target 9860 stop 50p, buy break 9900 target 10100 stop 100p, Sell 10100 target 9,800 stop 50p. Buy 9510 target 9860 stop 100p.
KSU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
178.05 175.0 178.1 174.0 179.7 176.5 180.7 172.6 173.9 176.0 179.4 180.7 182.8
Commentary
Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks KSU9 berada dalam pola congestion di kisaran range 184.15- 172.60, didukung oleh Indikator teknikal MACD dan stochastic berada dalam teritorial bearish, ADX terlihat terkoreksi turun, menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Indeks dapat melanjutkan laju kenaikan jika indeks dapat menembus resistance line di 180.25, bilamana break target 184.10 (double top di chart 4 jam). Tetapi jika indeks ditutup dibawah support line di 174.35, trend akan berbalik bearish, target 170.11 (50.0 FR)/166.80 (61.8 FR). Perkiraan range hari ini: 174.00-180.0
Rekomendasi : Buy 174.60 target 180.00 stop 100p, buy break 180.25 target 184.00 stop 100p. Buy break 184.25 target 186.50. Sell break 174.30 target 170.50 stop 100p. Buy 175.30 target 178.50 stop 100p. (+160p).
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
18045 17813 18125 17735 18203 17891 18303 17163 17488 17767 18371 18696 18975
Commentary
Dalam chart 4 jam, indeks menunjukkan pola congestion dan berpotensi menunjukkan pola head & shoulder jika indeks bertahan di atas support 17638 (50.0 FR 19090-16195). Trend masih bullish jangka pendek, tetapi jika indeks hari ini ditutup dibawah 17,648 dapat mengarahkan indeks ke target 17299 (61.8 FR)/16873 (76.4 FR), selama gagal ditutup diatas 18418 (high kemarin). Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan flat, stochastic crossing down, meski MACD masih berada di teritorial netral, menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Daily candle menunjukkan shooting star, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan hari ini. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks masih berada dalam wave a dalam subwave motive (3) telah berakhir di di 19,100 dalam cycle B. Perkiraan range hari ini : 17.700-18.400
Rekomendasi : Buy 17,650 target 18400 (or closing) stop 50 p. buy break 18430 target 18.540 stop 100 poin. Sell 18540 target 18200/17850 stop 100p. buy 17850 target 18200 stop 100p. Sell break 17580 target 17300 stop 100p. (+100+250p)
9845 9735 9845 9510 9920 9755 10020 9530 9630 9685 9840 9940 9995
Commentary
Di chart 4 jam, trend bullish jangka pendek indeks SSIU9 terancam berbalik arah, jika indeks ditutup dibawah support line di 9,725, dimana dapat mengarahkan indeks ke support berikutnya di 9653 (50.0 FR)/9503 (support channel). Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan koreksi penurunan, stochastic crossing up dan MACD berada dalam teritorial negatif, dan indeks masih berada dalam downtrend channel, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi kenaikan indeks terbatas hari ini. Daily candle menunjukkan shooting star (high realibility bearish reversal) membebani kinerja trend bullish indeks. Perkiraan range hari ini pada kisaran 9600-9900.
Rekomendasi : Buy 9640 target 9860 stop 50p, buy break 9900 target 10100 stop 100p, Sell 10100 target 9,800 stop 50p. Buy 9510 target 9860 stop 100p.
KSU9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
178.05 175.0 178.1 174.0 179.7 176.5 180.7 172.6 173.9 176.0 179.4 180.7 182.8
Commentary
Dalam chart 4-jam, indeks KSU9 berada dalam pola congestion di kisaran range 184.15- 172.60, didukung oleh Indikator teknikal MACD dan stochastic berada dalam teritorial bearish, ADX terlihat terkoreksi turun, menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Indeks dapat melanjutkan laju kenaikan jika indeks dapat menembus resistance line di 180.25, bilamana break target 184.10 (double top di chart 4 jam). Tetapi jika indeks ditutup dibawah support line di 174.35, trend akan berbalik bearish, target 170.11 (50.0 FR)/166.80 (61.8 FR). Perkiraan range hari ini: 174.00-180.0
Rekomendasi : Buy 174.60 target 180.00 stop 100p, buy break 180.25 target 184.00 stop 100p. Buy break 184.25 target 186.50. Sell break 174.30 target 170.50 stop 100p. Buy 175.30 target 178.50 stop 100p. (+160p).
HSIM9 Buy Target Stop Loss Sell Target Stop Loss S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3
18045 17813 18125 17735 18203 17891 18303 17163 17488 17767 18371 18696 18975
Commentary
Dalam chart 4 jam, indeks menunjukkan pola congestion dan berpotensi menunjukkan pola head & shoulder jika indeks bertahan di atas support 17638 (50.0 FR 19090-16195). Trend masih bullish jangka pendek, tetapi jika indeks hari ini ditutup dibawah 17,648 dapat mengarahkan indeks ke target 17299 (61.8 FR)/16873 (76.4 FR), selama gagal ditutup diatas 18418 (high kemarin). Indikator teknikal ADX menunjukkan flat, stochastic crossing down, meski MACD masih berada di teritorial netral, menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas hari ini. Daily candle menunjukkan shooting star, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan hari ini. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks masih berada dalam wave a dalam subwave motive (3) telah berakhir di di 19,100 dalam cycle B. Perkiraan range hari ini : 17.700-18.400
Rekomendasi : Buy 17,650 target 18400 (or closing) stop 50 p. buy break 18430 target 18.540 stop 100 poin. Sell 18540 target 18200/17850 stop 100p. buy 17850 target 18200 stop 100p. Sell break 17580 target 17300 stop 100p. (+100+250p)
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Mon Jun 22 09 06:53 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Expiring today, crude oil for July delivery slips to 68.4 in European morning as strength in USD, huge supply in motor fuel and downgrade in economic forecasts fueled worries about demand growth outlook. Increased tensions in Nigeria and Iran failed to support price. The most actively traded August contract plunges -1.7% to 68.7.The dollar rises to 1.385 against the euro after the World Banks said economy will contract by almost -3% this year.US Treasury yields also surge as led by 10-year notes. The government will auction $104B of 2-year, 5-year and 7-securities this week.
Gold's fall from 992.1 resumes today and reaches as low as 920.7 so far and further decline is still expected as long as 944.6 resistance holds. Next target will be 61.8% retracement of 865.5 to 992.1 at 913.9 and break there will bring retest of 865.6 low. On the upside, above 944.6 will suggest that fall from 922.1 has completed and will flip bias back to the upside for retesting this level.
In the bigger picture, recent development argues that rise from 865 has completed at 992.1 already, ahead of 1007.7/1033.9 key resistance zone. Also it suggests that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress and break of 913.9 fibo support will bring the third leg down to test 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
Comex Gold (GC)
Expiring today, crude oil for July delivery slips to 68.4 in European morning as strength in USD, huge supply in motor fuel and downgrade in economic forecasts fueled worries about demand growth outlook. Increased tensions in Nigeria and Iran failed to support price. The most actively traded August contract plunges -1.7% to 68.7.The dollar rises to 1.385 against the euro after the World Banks said economy will contract by almost -3% this year.US Treasury yields also surge as led by 10-year notes. The government will auction $104B of 2-year, 5-year and 7-securities this week.
Gold's fall from 992.1 resumes today and reaches as low as 920.7 so far and further decline is still expected as long as 944.6 resistance holds. Next target will be 61.8% retracement of 865.5 to 992.1 at 913.9 and break there will bring retest of 865.6 low. On the upside, above 944.6 will suggest that fall from 922.1 has completed and will flip bias back to the upside for retesting this level.
In the bigger picture, recent development argues that rise from 865 has completed at 992.1 already, ahead of 1007.7/1033.9 key resistance zone. Also it suggests that consolidation from 1007.7 is still in progress and break of 913.9 fibo support will bring the third leg down to test 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Mon Jun 22 09 06:52 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil dives further to as low as 67.89 today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 69.93 minor resistance holds. As discussed before, with daily MACD staying below signal line, and near term trend line support broken decisively, a short term top should be formed at 73.23 already. Further decline could now be seen to 38.2% retracement of 45.44 to 73.23 at 62.61. On the upside, above 69.93 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But short term risk remains on the downside as long as 72.55 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, while a short term top might be formed at 73.23, there is no indication that rise from 33.20 has completed yet. Such rise is still in favor to extend to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77, and possibly further to next key level of 90, (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.23) . But as noted before, strong resistance should be seen there and at least from some deep pull back. Though, a break of 54.66 key medium term resistance turned support will argue that whole rise from 33.2 low has indeed completed and will turn outlook bearish for a retest of this low eventually.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil dives further to as low as 67.89 today and at this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 69.93 minor resistance holds. As discussed before, with daily MACD staying below signal line, and near term trend line support broken decisively, a short term top should be formed at 73.23 already. Further decline could now be seen to 38.2% retracement of 45.44 to 73.23 at 62.61. On the upside, above 69.93 will turn intraday outlook neutral first. But short term risk remains on the downside as long as 72.55 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, while a short term top might be formed at 73.23, there is no indication that rise from 33.20 has completed yet. Such rise is still in favor to extend to 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77, and possibly further to next key level of 90, (50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.23) . But as noted before, strong resistance should be seen there and at least from some deep pull back. Though, a break of 54.66 key medium term resistance turned support will argue that whole rise from 33.2 low has indeed completed and will turn outlook bearish for a retest of this low eventually.
Oil at $100, Interest Rates May Stifle Recovery: Roubini
The price of oil, which is rising too fast, and long-term interest rates that are beginning to creep up are likely to suppress a budding recovery, famous economist Nouriel Roubini, also dubbed "Dr. Doom," told CNBC Monday."I see even the risk of a double-dip, W-shaped recession… towards the end of next year," Roubini told "Squawk Box Europe.""Oil could be closer to $100 a barrel towards the end of this year, this could be a negative shock to the economy," he said, adding that other dangers come from long-term interest rates and big budget deficits.
In the next few months, unemployment may reach 11 percent in the US and around 10 percent in Europe.Because of bad macroeconomic data and poor earnings prospects as companies have weak pricing power and demand is still subdued, the surprises will be on the downside, he said."That's why I believe there's going to be a significant market correction for equities, for commodities and even for credit," Roubini added.
He said recovery signs should come from unemployment, housing, industrial production, sales and consumption data.
"When I look at them I see so far still more yellow weeds than green shoots. They have to bottom out, in my view they haven't bottomed out. This recovery, unfortunately, because of the debt overhang… is going to be a very weak economic recovery, in my view," he added.The large budget deficits caused by government stimulus packages and bailouts make the work of central banks harder, as they now have to be cautious regarding inflation.
In Europe, the dangers came both from its weak economy and from exposure of Western European banks to Eastern European economies, he said. But protectionism is not an answer, Roubini warned."The reality is that too much protection would be dangerous," he said."In Europe there is a risk that even the single market is breaking down because of protectionism, let alone the rest of the world," Roubini added.
In the next few months, unemployment may reach 11 percent in the US and around 10 percent in Europe.Because of bad macroeconomic data and poor earnings prospects as companies have weak pricing power and demand is still subdued, the surprises will be on the downside, he said."That's why I believe there's going to be a significant market correction for equities, for commodities and even for credit," Roubini added.
He said recovery signs should come from unemployment, housing, industrial production, sales and consumption data.
"When I look at them I see so far still more yellow weeds than green shoots. They have to bottom out, in my view they haven't bottomed out. This recovery, unfortunately, because of the debt overhang… is going to be a very weak economic recovery, in my view," he added.The large budget deficits caused by government stimulus packages and bailouts make the work of central banks harder, as they now have to be cautious regarding inflation.
In Europe, the dangers came both from its weak economy and from exposure of Western European banks to Eastern European economies, he said. But protectionism is not an answer, Roubini warned."The reality is that too much protection would be dangerous," he said."In Europe there is a risk that even the single market is breaking down because of protectionism, let alone the rest of the world," Roubini added.
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