Monday, July 6, 2009
Yen Advances Versus Euro on Concern Global Recovery Will Falter
(Bloomberg) -- The yen advanced for a third day against the euro and gained versus the dollar on concern credit- market losses will keep increasing in Europe and the U.S., spurring demand for the relative safety of Japan’s currency. The yen rose versus all 16 major currencies as Asian stocks fell and Germany’s IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG said it lost 580 million euros ($810 million) in the fiscal year ending March 31, prompting investors to cut holdings of higher-yielding assets. The dollar and the euro declined against the yen after Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said before this week’s Group of Eight summit that the world is too reliant on the two currencies, damping the appeal of U.S. and European assets.
The yen climbed to 133.12 per euro as of 7:35 a.m. in London from 134.26 last week in New York, after earlier rising to 132.96, the strongest level since June 23. Japan’s currency gained to 95.32 versus the dollar from 96.04. It strengthened 1.2 percent to 75.65 per Australia’s dollar and advanced 1.1 percent to 59.85 per New Zealand’s dollar.The dollar was little changed at $1.3962 per euro from $1.3980, and rose to $1.6231 versus the pound from $1.6333, after reaching $1.6230, the strongest since June 23.
G-8 Meeting
The dollar dropped to a one-week low against the yen after Russia and India said the global economy is too dependent on the U.S. currency and called for revisions in how $6.5 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves are managed, as G-8 leaders prepare to meet in Italy this week. India should diversify its foreign holdings away from the dollar, Suresh Tendulkar, an economic adviser to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, said in a July 3 interview.
The yen climbed to 133.12 per euro as of 7:35 a.m. in London from 134.26 last week in New York, after earlier rising to 132.96, the strongest level since June 23. Japan’s currency gained to 95.32 versus the dollar from 96.04. It strengthened 1.2 percent to 75.65 per Australia’s dollar and advanced 1.1 percent to 59.85 per New Zealand’s dollar.The dollar was little changed at $1.3962 per euro from $1.3980, and rose to $1.6231 versus the pound from $1.6333, after reaching $1.6230, the strongest since June 23.
G-8 Meeting
The dollar dropped to a one-week low against the yen after Russia and India said the global economy is too dependent on the U.S. currency and called for revisions in how $6.5 trillion in foreign-exchange reserves are managed, as G-8 leaders prepare to meet in Italy this week. India should diversify its foreign holdings away from the dollar, Suresh Tendulkar, an economic adviser to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, said in a July 3 interview.
Daily Technical Analysis Forex/DJIA/Gold
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD
Comment: Endlessly dreary as we consolidate randomly in a relatively narrow range below the increasingly important 1.4200 level. Until we get a weekly close above here we shall have to allow for yet more random consolidation within the recent range.Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.3975; stop below 1.3900. Short term target 1.4100, then 1.4200. Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3952 " 1.4
1.3927 1.4045
1.3875 1.41
1.3825 1.4178/1.4202*
1.3800* 1.423
GBPUSD
Comment: Looking for direction while trading above an increasingly large, upward-sloping Ichimoku 'cloud'. A weekly close clearly above 1.6500 should add to current strong bullish momentum, hopefully with a whole host of currencies pulling in the same direction. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6285; stop below 1.6175. First target 1.6550/1.6600. Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6275 " 1.6488
1.6259 1.6605
1.6209 1.6664
1.6187* 1.6745*
1.6125 1.68
USDJPY
Comment: Consolidating neatly below the lower edge of the Ichimoku 'cloud' and the moving averages, above trendline support. Hopefully some time this week we will see a re-test of recent lows at 95.00 and then the increasingly important 94.00 area.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 95.50, adding to 96.00; stop well above 96.25. First target 95.00/94.88, then 94.00. Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
95.24 " 95.8
95 96.25
94.88 96.89
94.44* 97.00*
94 97.25
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee : Rupee should be able to stay above 48.35 post budget to remain bearish vis-a-vis dollar . It has not weakenend much as compared to the other currencies like (euro , pound). Neutral to Bearish.(USD/INR : 47.95)
Euro : The EURUSD had a moderate bearish momentum on Friday. On h4 chart we can see that the trendline support has been broken to the downside. Surely we do not have significant movement so far as the pair has been showing no clear direction in the last several weeks but this fact should lead us into more downside pressure testing 1.3750 key level area. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4050.Stay bearish below 1.3950. (Eur/Usd:1.3985)
Sterling : The GBPUSD had a moderate bearish momentum on Friday. The pair bottomed at 1.6302 and closed at 1.6321. The trendline in the 4hrly charts have broken to the downside and it should keep the downside pressure testing 1.6180 key level area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish scenario. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.6350 followed by 1.6425. (Gbp/Usd: 1.6290) Bearish
Yen : Yen is short term bullish could head towards 92 level provided dollar maintains strength across board followed by risk aversion.(USD/JPY : 95.45) Yen is relatively strong against dollar
Aud : Remains bearish overall below 0.8050. 2 closings above 0.8100 would negate the view. Corrections in commodity prices is still expected across. Bearish (Aud/Usd: 0.7970)
Gold : Gold was unable to hold above its trendline resistance of 943 dollars. Still holding bearishness below 943 (Gold- $930.70). Bearish
Dollar Index : Dollar index extends the rebound from 79.56 and is set to take on 80.94. We're anticipating a break of 80.94 resistance to signal resumption of rise from 78.33, to be confirmed by break of 81.36/47 resistance zone. Further rally should be seen to next key resistance at 82.62 (38.2% retracement of 89.62 to 78.93 at 82.64). in such case. (DI- 80.22) Bullish
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8280.23 and 8247.22(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8224.00, where correction also can be. Then follows 8185.78. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8148.62. Continuation will bring 8118.50 and 8100.00. Today's resistance: - 8376.18, 8417.22 and 8462.80(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8503.10, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8538.70, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8551.50. Continuation would bring 8562.26.
EURUSD
Comment: Endlessly dreary as we consolidate randomly in a relatively narrow range below the increasingly important 1.4200 level. Until we get a weekly close above here we shall have to allow for yet more random consolidation within the recent range.Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.3975; stop below 1.3900. Short term target 1.4100, then 1.4200. Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3952 " 1.4
1.3927 1.4045
1.3875 1.41
1.3825 1.4178/1.4202*
1.3800* 1.423
GBPUSD
Comment: Looking for direction while trading above an increasingly large, upward-sloping Ichimoku 'cloud'. A weekly close clearly above 1.6500 should add to current strong bullish momentum, hopefully with a whole host of currencies pulling in the same direction. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6285; stop below 1.6175. First target 1.6550/1.6600. Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6275 " 1.6488
1.6259 1.6605
1.6209 1.6664
1.6187* 1.6745*
1.6125 1.68
USDJPY
Comment: Consolidating neatly below the lower edge of the Ichimoku 'cloud' and the moving averages, above trendline support. Hopefully some time this week we will see a re-test of recent lows at 95.00 and then the increasingly important 94.00 area.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 95.50, adding to 96.00; stop well above 96.25. First target 95.00/94.88, then 94.00. Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
95.24 " 95.8
95 96.25
94.88 96.89
94.44* 97.00*
94 97.25
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Rupee : Rupee should be able to stay above 48.35 post budget to remain bearish vis-a-vis dollar . It has not weakenend much as compared to the other currencies like (euro , pound). Neutral to Bearish.(USD/INR : 47.95)
Euro : The EURUSD had a moderate bearish momentum on Friday. On h4 chart we can see that the trendline support has been broken to the downside. Surely we do not have significant movement so far as the pair has been showing no clear direction in the last several weeks but this fact should lead us into more downside pressure testing 1.3750 key level area. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.4050.Stay bearish below 1.3950. (Eur/Usd:1.3985)
Sterling : The GBPUSD had a moderate bearish momentum on Friday. The pair bottomed at 1.6302 and closed at 1.6321. The trendline in the 4hrly charts have broken to the downside and it should keep the downside pressure testing 1.6180 key level area. Break below that area should trigger further bearish scenario. Immediate resistance is seen at 1.6350 followed by 1.6425. (Gbp/Usd: 1.6290) Bearish
Yen : Yen is short term bullish could head towards 92 level provided dollar maintains strength across board followed by risk aversion.(USD/JPY : 95.45) Yen is relatively strong against dollar
Aud : Remains bearish overall below 0.8050. 2 closings above 0.8100 would negate the view. Corrections in commodity prices is still expected across. Bearish (Aud/Usd: 0.7970)
Gold : Gold was unable to hold above its trendline resistance of 943 dollars. Still holding bearishness below 943 (Gold- $930.70). Bearish
Dollar Index : Dollar index extends the rebound from 79.56 and is set to take on 80.94. We're anticipating a break of 80.94 resistance to signal resumption of rise from 78.33, to be confirmed by break of 81.36/47 resistance zone. Further rally should be seen to next key resistance at 82.62 (38.2% retracement of 89.62 to 78.93 at 82.64). in such case. (DI- 80.22) Bullish
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8280.23 and 8247.22(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8224.00, where correction also can be. Then follows 8185.78. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8148.62. Continuation will bring 8118.50 and 8100.00. Today's resistance: - 8376.18, 8417.22 and 8462.80(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8503.10, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8538.70, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8551.50. Continuation would bring 8562.26.
IHSG
Market Review
IHSG mendapatkan keuntungan dari data inflasi yang mengalami penurunan ke 3.65% y/y, 0.11% m/m (01/07), mendorong penurunan suku bunga acuan BI sebesar 25 bsp menjadi 6.75% (03/07). Aksi pembelian saham telekomunikasi (TLKM, ISAT), sektor perbankan, property dan konsumsi membantu mengangkat IHSG. IHSG bertahan dari sejumlah sentimen negatif dari faktor eksternal dan penurunan harga komoditas (harga minyak sentuh level terendah $ 65.80; 03/07). Imbas positif dari penguatan indeks saham Shanghai menguat 3 hari berturut-turut, berkat lebih baik dari perkiraan data Bank Lending dan PMI Manufacturing China, ikut membantu kinerja IHSG. Sementara profit-taking menjelang liburan panjang di AS (Independence day), kejutan penurunan keyakinan konsumen & kenaikan data pengangguran di AS, picu kekhawatiran resesi ekonomi AS berkepanjangan, menahan laju kenaikan IHSG. IHSG menguat 35.11 poin (+1.72%) pekan lalu, ditutup di 2075.30, merupakan kenaikan pekan ke-6 dalam 7 pekan terakhir. IHSG menguat 9.549 poin (0.46%) menjadi 2,075.30 hari Jumat (03/07).
Indeks saham Asia dan Eropa terkoreksi pekan lalu, melanjutkan periode penurunan mingguan terlama berturut-turut dalam indeks MSCI World sejak bulan Maret, karena laporan penjualan ritel, industri jasa, keyakinan konsumen dan tenaga kerja AS dan Eropa menambah kekhawatiran resesi global pertama sejak Perang Dunia II masih tetap berlangsung. Anjloknya harga komoditi ikut bebani kinerja indeks MSCI.
IHSG Outlook
Seperti perkiraan sebelumnya, laju kenaikan HSG terbatas di pekan lalu, mendekati level tertinggi di tahun ini 2,116 (+56.1% YTD), dapat kembali tertahan laju kenaikannya karena potensi aksi profit-taking di saham unggulan menjelang Pilpres 8 Juli, diikuti imbas penurunan harga komoditi (minyak capai terendah 5-pekan di $ 65.63: trend bullish di atas $ 62.10) dapat menjatuhkan harga saham komoditi lokal. Mahalnya valuasi IHSG (data Bloomberg) hingga pekan lalu, PER (Price Earning Ratio) IHSG sebesar 26.65x, dianggap tidak lagi murah. Sementara penyataan pejabat BI Miranda Goeltom (03/07), peluang penurunan suku bunga BI terbatas di tahun ini setelah pangkas suku bunga acuan untuk 8 bulan berturut-turut (Citigroup dan PT Bank Danamon prediksi penurunan 25 bsp terakhir di tahun ini: RDG Agustus, prediksi kenaikan suku bunga BI di 2010), dapat bebani kinerja IHSG terutama dari saham perbankan, property dan konsumsi menjelang pilpres.
Sementara Presiden SBY diproyeksikan untuk memenangkan masa 5-jabatan tahun kedua dengan suara mayoritas (data Bloomberg), dapat memicu IHSG “BULL RALLY” jika hasil perolehan suara lebih besar dari perkiraan pasar. Support dari penurunan suku bunga BI pekan lalu, revisi kenaikan prediksi GDP semester 1 RI menjadi 4.6% dari 4.1% (dirilis bulan depan), laporan Indonesia keluar dari daftar 10 negara penerbit surat hutang paling beresiko di akhir pekan, perkiraan lapkeu emiten Q2 akan lebih baik dari Q1 2009 diikuti masih kuatnya inflow (imbas penguatan rupiah; perkiraan IMF akan revisi naik pertumbuhan ekonomi RI di bulan ini), seharusnya menopang IHSG di akhir pekan ini.
Stock Picks: Average last week +7% (16 saham). Potential yield 10%-20%, risk <10%
* Buy on weakness (< -10%): BUMI/BNBR/ELTY, BMTR/MNCN, SMMA, BLTA, CTRA, INCO, INDF, SMGR, BBCA, BMRI, TLKM, ISAT, PTBA, TRUB.
Global Outlook
Di awal pekan ini, pasar saham AS akan dibuka kembali setelah liburan panjang Independence Day, mendorong perkiraan penurunan karena sentimen negatif dari laporan tenaga kerja AS di akhir pekan lalu, meningkatkan kekhawatiran resesi ekonomi di AS berkepanjangan, memukul harga komoditas (imbas negatif kepada saham pertambangan, logam dan perkebunan) dan mata uang di negara yang mengandalkan komoditi (CAD, AUD, NZD, RAND, Pound) dan potensi profit taking menjelang pertemuan negara Grup-8 di Italia (09-10 Juli) di tengah spekulasi negara China, Rusia dan India (penasihat ekonomi India mendesak pemerintah untuk diversifikasi cadangan devisa dan memegang lebih sedikit dolar AS) akan meningkatkan kekhawatiran terhadap isu diversifikasi cadangan devisa dari dolar AS, berpotensi ganggu pemulihan ekonomi global. Meski potensi penurunan indeks terbatas, karena inflow ke emerging market masih kuat, dapat picu kenaikan di akhir pekan ini.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG mendapatkan support dari pola candle weekly three inside out (high reliability bullish reversal) pekan lalu, indikator ADX terkoreksi, MACD dan Stochastic (overbought) bullish, seharusnya dukung potensi kenaikan terbatas pekan ini. (Alert: Jika Hasil Pilpres sesuai perkiraan pasar, dapat perkuat momentum uptrend IHSG). Hal tersebut mengikuti hitungan Elliot Wave, alternatif wave 3 dapat terbentuk jika IHSG gagal melewati 2,116 (high Juni)/upper channel 3) untuk koreksi ke target 1,926/1,778 (maksimal target) beberapa pekan mendatang. Tetapi jika melewati level tersebut, mendukung perkiraan alternatif wave 3 extended dengan target maksimal di 2,156 (upper channel)/2,165 (61.8% FR 2835-1089).
Resistance: 2222.38/2190.00/2157.62/2112.76. PP 2060.48
Support : 2048.00/2015.62/1963.34/1930.96
(Perkiraan Range Pekan Ini 1,960-2,160)
IHSG mendapatkan keuntungan dari data inflasi yang mengalami penurunan ke 3.65% y/y, 0.11% m/m (01/07), mendorong penurunan suku bunga acuan BI sebesar 25 bsp menjadi 6.75% (03/07). Aksi pembelian saham telekomunikasi (TLKM, ISAT), sektor perbankan, property dan konsumsi membantu mengangkat IHSG. IHSG bertahan dari sejumlah sentimen negatif dari faktor eksternal dan penurunan harga komoditas (harga minyak sentuh level terendah $ 65.80; 03/07). Imbas positif dari penguatan indeks saham Shanghai menguat 3 hari berturut-turut, berkat lebih baik dari perkiraan data Bank Lending dan PMI Manufacturing China, ikut membantu kinerja IHSG. Sementara profit-taking menjelang liburan panjang di AS (Independence day), kejutan penurunan keyakinan konsumen & kenaikan data pengangguran di AS, picu kekhawatiran resesi ekonomi AS berkepanjangan, menahan laju kenaikan IHSG. IHSG menguat 35.11 poin (+1.72%) pekan lalu, ditutup di 2075.30, merupakan kenaikan pekan ke-6 dalam 7 pekan terakhir. IHSG menguat 9.549 poin (0.46%) menjadi 2,075.30 hari Jumat (03/07).
Indeks saham Asia dan Eropa terkoreksi pekan lalu, melanjutkan periode penurunan mingguan terlama berturut-turut dalam indeks MSCI World sejak bulan Maret, karena laporan penjualan ritel, industri jasa, keyakinan konsumen dan tenaga kerja AS dan Eropa menambah kekhawatiran resesi global pertama sejak Perang Dunia II masih tetap berlangsung. Anjloknya harga komoditi ikut bebani kinerja indeks MSCI.
IHSG Outlook
Seperti perkiraan sebelumnya, laju kenaikan HSG terbatas di pekan lalu, mendekati level tertinggi di tahun ini 2,116 (+56.1% YTD), dapat kembali tertahan laju kenaikannya karena potensi aksi profit-taking di saham unggulan menjelang Pilpres 8 Juli, diikuti imbas penurunan harga komoditi (minyak capai terendah 5-pekan di $ 65.63: trend bullish di atas $ 62.10) dapat menjatuhkan harga saham komoditi lokal. Mahalnya valuasi IHSG (data Bloomberg) hingga pekan lalu, PER (Price Earning Ratio) IHSG sebesar 26.65x, dianggap tidak lagi murah. Sementara penyataan pejabat BI Miranda Goeltom (03/07), peluang penurunan suku bunga BI terbatas di tahun ini setelah pangkas suku bunga acuan untuk 8 bulan berturut-turut (Citigroup dan PT Bank Danamon prediksi penurunan 25 bsp terakhir di tahun ini: RDG Agustus, prediksi kenaikan suku bunga BI di 2010), dapat bebani kinerja IHSG terutama dari saham perbankan, property dan konsumsi menjelang pilpres.
Sementara Presiden SBY diproyeksikan untuk memenangkan masa 5-jabatan tahun kedua dengan suara mayoritas (data Bloomberg), dapat memicu IHSG “BULL RALLY” jika hasil perolehan suara lebih besar dari perkiraan pasar. Support dari penurunan suku bunga BI pekan lalu, revisi kenaikan prediksi GDP semester 1 RI menjadi 4.6% dari 4.1% (dirilis bulan depan), laporan Indonesia keluar dari daftar 10 negara penerbit surat hutang paling beresiko di akhir pekan, perkiraan lapkeu emiten Q2 akan lebih baik dari Q1 2009 diikuti masih kuatnya inflow (imbas penguatan rupiah; perkiraan IMF akan revisi naik pertumbuhan ekonomi RI di bulan ini), seharusnya menopang IHSG di akhir pekan ini.
Stock Picks: Average last week +7% (16 saham). Potential yield 10%-20%, risk <10%
* Buy on weakness (< -10%): BUMI/BNBR/ELTY, BMTR/MNCN, SMMA, BLTA, CTRA, INCO, INDF, SMGR, BBCA, BMRI, TLKM, ISAT, PTBA, TRUB.
Global Outlook
Di awal pekan ini, pasar saham AS akan dibuka kembali setelah liburan panjang Independence Day, mendorong perkiraan penurunan karena sentimen negatif dari laporan tenaga kerja AS di akhir pekan lalu, meningkatkan kekhawatiran resesi ekonomi di AS berkepanjangan, memukul harga komoditas (imbas negatif kepada saham pertambangan, logam dan perkebunan) dan mata uang di negara yang mengandalkan komoditi (CAD, AUD, NZD, RAND, Pound) dan potensi profit taking menjelang pertemuan negara Grup-8 di Italia (09-10 Juli) di tengah spekulasi negara China, Rusia dan India (penasihat ekonomi India mendesak pemerintah untuk diversifikasi cadangan devisa dan memegang lebih sedikit dolar AS) akan meningkatkan kekhawatiran terhadap isu diversifikasi cadangan devisa dari dolar AS, berpotensi ganggu pemulihan ekonomi global. Meski potensi penurunan indeks terbatas, karena inflow ke emerging market masih kuat, dapat picu kenaikan di akhir pekan ini.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG mendapatkan support dari pola candle weekly three inside out (high reliability bullish reversal) pekan lalu, indikator ADX terkoreksi, MACD dan Stochastic (overbought) bullish, seharusnya dukung potensi kenaikan terbatas pekan ini. (Alert: Jika Hasil Pilpres sesuai perkiraan pasar, dapat perkuat momentum uptrend IHSG). Hal tersebut mengikuti hitungan Elliot Wave, alternatif wave 3 dapat terbentuk jika IHSG gagal melewati 2,116 (high Juni)/upper channel 3) untuk koreksi ke target 1,926/1,778 (maksimal target) beberapa pekan mendatang. Tetapi jika melewati level tersebut, mendukung perkiraan alternatif wave 3 extended dengan target maksimal di 2,156 (upper channel)/2,165 (61.8% FR 2835-1089).
Resistance: 2222.38/2190.00/2157.62/2112.76. PP 2060.48
Support : 2048.00/2015.62/1963.34/1930.96
(Perkiraan Range Pekan Ini 1,960-2,160)
Gold Weekly Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Jul 04 09 04:42 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold was bounded in tight range below 938.1 last week, without making any progress. A short term bottom is in place after drawing support form 61.8% retracement of 865.5 to 992.1 at 913.9. Nevertheless, subsequent price actions are treated as consolidation to the fall from 992.1 only. Hence, while another rise cannot be ruled out, we'd expect upside to be limited by 61.8% retracement of 992.1 to 913.2 at 962 and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 913.2 will confirm decline resumption for 865 low.
In the bigger picture, favor is in the case that that fall from 992.1 is the third leg of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed yet. Break of 913.9 fibo support will target a test of 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold was bounded in tight range below 938.1 last week, without making any progress. A short term bottom is in place after drawing support form 61.8% retracement of 865.5 to 992.1 at 913.9. Nevertheless, subsequent price actions are treated as consolidation to the fall from 992.1 only. Hence, while another rise cannot be ruled out, we'd expect upside to be limited by 61.8% retracement of 992.1 to 913.2 at 962 and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 913.2 will confirm decline resumption for 865 low.
In the bigger picture, favor is in the case that that fall from 992.1 is the third leg of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed yet. Break of 913.9 fibo support will target a test of 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.
In the long term picture, medium term consolidation from 1033.9 should have completed as an expanding triangle to 681 already. Rise from there is tentatively treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 253 and will target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 after taking out 1033.9 high. However, a break below mentioned 801.5 cluster support will argue that consolidation from 1033.9 is still in progress and will delay the long term bullish case.
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