Usd/Chf: Triangle, Oil: Bullish To $73

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com

Usd/Chf
4 Hour chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 1.0589, and 1.1021. Looking for: Triangle. On the swissy chart, the prices created a recent top around the 76.4% area as expected, which could be a top of a blue wave c leg of a fourth wave triangle. If we are on the right track then prices should be trading lower during the next few sessions and days, into our wave d leg with an expected three wave structure. In this case, traders should find wave d lows somewhere above wave b before a last leg of a wave e triangle gets under way.



















OIL
4 Hour chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 58.30, 68.90 and 73.27. Looking for: Break through the 68.90. Oil made another fast and unexpected move during the past session, as the market sharply turned around the 50% Fibonacci support level. However, oil looks more bullish than bearish at the moment so we have focused on a bullish impulse count, especially if the break through the $68.90 area happens. This is key for a move into $73 per barrel. We are looking at a possible blue wave III confirmation that could send the market higher as a blue wave II looks to be completed around the recent $62 area. The $58.30 area must hold; other wise the wave count will have to be re-worked.

Cable Bullish to 1.7000-1.7100 Area, $ Index Down to 74

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com

Cable Bullish to 1.7000-1.7100 area
Daily chart trend: Long. Main price points: 1.5982 and 1.6743 Looking for: Move up, near to 1.7000-1.7100 area. Cable is extremely bullish, as the prices are breaking through all resistance areas that were made in the past few weeks, and as such, we are monitoring a near-term bullish wave count with black wave V) progress. The target area of this wave V) is shown around the 1.7100 area, if the break through the 50% Fibonacci level appears.Around that top, we will be looking for a completed five wave pattern, with new near-term or long-term down-trend moves will be expected. This may be the top area of a blue wave 4) (weekly chart), from where the market should go much lower, or it may also be just a temporary top of a red wave III of a bullish impulse count.

4 Hour chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 1.5982, and 1.6743. Looking for: Triangle
On the four hour cable chart we can see that market is already breaking through the 1.6743 resistance level, which should be key for move at least into the 1.6915 zone. This is our minimum blue wave iii objective of a re-worked wave count. We are looking for an impulse wave count, as a black wave IV) looks completed with a flat structure at 1.5982 low; so wave V) should be in progress.


















$ Index Down to 74
Weekly chart trend: Short. Main price points: 78.33. Looking for: Wave B pattern.
On the weekly dollar index chart, we are monitoring the second wave count, presented in the past week, after prices broke through the 78.33 support area. Now we are looking for a huge flat correction in a blue wave B with red wave five in progress of an extended black C). The bottom of wave C) may be found somewhere around the 74.00 area.

Daily chart trend: Short. Main price points: 80.89, and 74. Looking for: Wave V
The dollar index has broken through 78.33 support during recent trading sessions, which confirms a lower, red wave V leg. The target of this wave V is shown around the 74 area, as we are targeting on the same distance of points in wave V as in wave I. The wave count will be valid, so long as the 80.89, wave IV top holds.

4 Hour chart trend: Short. Main price points: 79.66. Looking for: Move lower
The dollar index is trading powerfully lower after a completed blue wave II correction, at the 79.66 area. Wave II is now completely done as the market broke through the wave I lows, which should bring the wave III in play. If we are correct, then this wave III should be large, with an extended structure, as the third waves are usually the most powerful of a five wave pattern. The 79.66 top needs to hold for a valid wave count.

The Oil Industry And ETFs: What’s Next After Weak Earnings?

By Tom Lydon on August 4, 2009 | More Posts By Tom Lydon | Author's Website

Earnings reports for oil and related industries have been less than appealing so far. On the other hand, the success of bringing new oil and gas production on line has softened the landing for related exchange traded funds (ETFs).Many major U.S. oil companies have not been exempt from the effects of the recession, even after posting some of their largest profits during the last boom. The slump in demand for oil and natural gas commodities has earnings reports for heavyweights such as Chevron Corp. (CVX: 70.40 +0.93 +1.34%) missing expectations. They posted their lowest quarterly profit in six years, says Angel Ramon for The Wall Street Journal. Texas giant Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM: 70.65 +0.26 +0.37%) recorded its lowest profit since 2003.

Big oil is not disappearing, though. In fact, the industry is moving ahead with in-depth capital projects in the hopes that energy demand will recover as the broader economy does. Jean Scheid for The Examiner reports that there are several things the general public is not aware of when it comes to the oil industry. These facts were noted in an episode of 20/20 with Charles Gibson:

* Americans consume 400 million gallons of oil per day.
* Oil companies do not own gas stations; they do own the stations where large trucks fill up before delivering fuel to gas stations, however.
* All gas is created equal. Chevron, 76, or Arco, it doesn’t matter - gas is gas. This is federally regulated.
* Oil industry regulation has been promised by many presidents, so believe it when you see it.
* As far back as 1978, the U.S. government knew our oil demand was exceeding the supply.
* The average gas station owner only makes a 10-cent profit on fuel sales. To stay in business, they need to sell snacks, sodas and other sundries.
* iShares Dow Jones U.S. Energy (IYE: 30.85 +0.74 +2.46%): up 7.2% year-to-date; Chevron, 12.6%; Exxon, 24.6%

4 Of Warren Buffett’s Smaller Holdings

By Marc Norton on August 4, 2009 | More Posts By Marc Norton | Author's Website

Four of Warren Buffett’s smaller holdings have made some big gains off the bottom, along with the overall market. What’s interesting is that most focus on his largest holdings which are Coca Cola (KO: 49.60 -0.24 -0.48%), Wells Fargo (WFC: 25.80 +1.34 +5.48%), American Express (AXP: 28.65 +0.32 +1.13%), Burlington Northern (BNI: 80.80 +2.21 +2.81%), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ: 61.10 +0.21 +0.34%), Procter & Gamble (PG: 55.61 +0.10 +0.18%), and Kraft Foods (KFT: 28.20 -0.14 -0.49%).Below in the graph’s you see 4 smaller positions that Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-A: 100000.00 +3000.00 +3.09%) (BRK-B: 3270.00 +89.50 +2.81%) owns.

Three of these companies Ingersoll-Rand (IR: 29.03 +0.15 +0.52%), NRG Energy (NRG: 28.71 +1.50 +5.51%) & CarMax (KMX: 16.65 +0.52 +3.22%) have gained 100% or better off their lows, while Eaton (ETN: 53.65 +1.73 +3.33%) has gained 76%, all four far out pacing the market averages, with the Dow Jones Industrial returning 44% and the S&P (^GSPC: 1002.63 +15.15 +1.53%) returning 50%.

Looking at some of his smaller holdings might give us a glimpse at what he is buying in his personal account which is not published anywhere. All-in-all Buffett owns over 90 different companies in which over half of these are wholly owned by Berkshire Hathaway.

IHSG/Forex/Stodex Asia: Potensi Kenaikan Saham Asia & Euro FX Terbatas Hari Ini

IHSG Outlook
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 14.9 8% +1.5% 6.75% 3.65% 4.4%
STI 22.0 16% -9.7% 0.69% -0.70% -10.1%
KLCI 14.9 10% +1.3% 2.0% 3.00% -6.2%
SET 13.5 4% -10.5% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 43.4 36% +18% 5.31% -1.40% 7.9%
N225 47.8 -1% -25.4% 0.10% -0.10% -9.7%
HSI 26.5 19% -10.1% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 16.5 3% -17.5% 0.25% -1.4% -3.6%
* Negara Bersangkutan

Momentum kenaikan IHSG masih terbuka, karena solidnya fundamental emiten lokal di semester 1 2009, kuatnya sentimen dari dalam dan luar negeri mendorong aliran dana masuk ke pasar modal dan faktor teknikal yang menunjukkan pola bullish continuation. Setelah pada pekan lalu, IHSG melejit berkat euphoria saham dari grup Bakrie (BUMI melonjak 36% pekan lalu), inflasi RI bulan Juli capai level terendah sejak tahun 2000 (0.45% m/m, 2.71% y/y, lampaui target pemerintah 2009: 4.5%) memicu spekulasi penurunan suku bunga BI pada RDG 5 Agustus besok menjadi 6.50% dari 6.75%, seharusnya positif untuk saham di sektor perbankan, property, aneka industri dan infrastruktur. Kenaikan harga komoditi (harga minyak capai $ 71/barel; target $ 73/77, target cpo Myr 2,500, nikel upgrade ke target $ 24,00, timah $ 17,500, emas $ 980) merupakan berita positif untuk saham komoditi pertambangan dan perkebunan. Imbas penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar (penutupan di Rp 9,910) akibat investor memburu saham dan imbas penurunan nilai dolar AS terhadap dolar telah angkat IHSG ke level tertinggi sejak 4 Juli 2008 dan harga SUN (Surat Utang Negara) mencatat harga tertinggi di tahun 2009 (indeks harga SUN mencapai 94.89; SUN FR0036 10-tahun capai rekor tertinggi dengan harga 109.2; imbal hasil 10.03%) serta permintaan untuk ORI006 capai Rp 3.882 triliun, dan positifnya faktor eksternal (earning & data ekonomi global ) seharusnya menopang IHSG.

Stock Picks: Average last 5 week +37.51%. Target 10-20%, Risk < -10%.
Buy: JSMR,ISAT,INCO,BBCA,BBRI,MNCN,TRUB,SMCB. BOW: BUMI, ENRG

Stock Picks:
• BNGA : Hold target Rp 750
• INCO : Buy target Rp 6,000

Global Outlook
Keyakinan investor global terhadap pasar saham meningkat lebih lanjut, setelah sejumlah laporan earnings dari perbankan Eropa (HSBC dan Barclays Plc) diikuti data manufakturing dari India, China (52.8 dari 51.8), Euro (46.3), Inggris (50.8) dan AS (48.9 dari perkiraan 46.5), construction spending AS (+0.3% m/m) tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan analis, kenaikan harga komoditi global mendapatkan keuntungan dari lebih baik dari perkiraan data GDP Q2 AS (-1.0% dari perkiraan -1.5%) dirilis Jumat (31/07), mendorong analis merevisi naik prediksi GDP AS di Q3 2009, didukung komentar Ex Chairman the Fed Alan Greenspan dan Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner melihat kemungkinan resesi ekonomi AS akan berakhir di akhir tahun ini. Estimasi dari 359 perusahaan semester 1 2009 di indeks S&P 500 dirilis baru-baru ini, sebanyak 78% melampaui perkiraan analis. Faktor teknikal indeks S&P 500 & DJIA (target 1,050; 9,500 jika ditutup mingguan diatas level tersebut target 1,200; 10,500 target invertd H&S), ikut topang kinerja indeks saham global. Meski laju kenaikan indeks akan dibatasi oleh mahalnya valuasi saham global (PER 26.5x).

Technical Analysis:
Pola bullish continuation dari bullish candle with uptail , penutupan diatas trendline dalam formasi ascending triangle di 2,327, masih berada dalam pola uptren channel dengan upper channel resistance di 2,364, kendati tertahan di bawah 2,350 (projection 161.8%), tidak mengubah momentum kenaikan ke target 2,425 jika ditutup harian diatas 2,350. Indikator ADX menunjukkan volatilitas yang meningkat, MACD dan stochastic bullish kendati berada dalam teritorial overbought, seharusnya masih topang kinerja uptrend. Uptrend masih terjaga, selama ditutup harian diatas 2,245 (trendline support). Hitungan Elliot Wave menunjukkan proses wave minor v (perkiraan peak di 2,350-2,425) proses wave i-v dalam extended motive wave 5 - siklus intermediate 4 / B.
Resistance: 2391.44/2378.02/2364.61/2351.70. PP 2337.78
Support : 2331.33/2317.91/2310.95/2284.12
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,315 - 2,365)

Technical Analysis
EUR-USD
(+130p-50+100p). Euro telah menembus berkat upper channel dan pola candle white opening marubozu menunjukkan potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut, didukung oleh indikator ADX naik, stochastic dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung perkiraan kenaikan hari ini. Support berada di 1.4130 (former low)/1.4170 (lower channel), Resistance berada di 1.4500/1.4730. Euro berada wave proses iv dalam wave 3 zig zag, untuk target $ 1.4330, selama tidak mencapai dibawah 1.4020. Buy 1.4335 target 1.4500, buy 1.4170 target 1.4270 stop 60p, buy 1.4380 target 1.4550. sell 1.4550 & 1.4730 target 1.4330 buy break 1.4550 trgt 1.4730.

USD-JPY
(+100+150p) USDJPY masih berada dalam pola bearish uptrend channel di daily chart, meski kenaikan teratas di upper channel 95.85, bilamana ditutup diatas level tersebut akan memutarbalikan trend menjadi netral target 96.70. Indikator ADX flat, stochastic crossup, MACD bearish, seharusnya mendukung peluang kenaikan terbatas selama gagal ditutup diatas 95.60. Resistance berada di 95.85, support di 94.40. Buy 94.40 target 95.60 stop 100p. Sell 95.85 target 93.00. buy 93.50 & Buy 92.60 stop 89.80 target 95.60. Sell 96.70 target 95.00.

GBP-USD
(+170p-50-50+175p) GBP masih berada dalam uptrend channel dalam pola ascening triangle, breaout pola congestion, diikuti indikator ADX naik, stochastic dan MACD berada di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut selama tidak ditutup dibawah 1.6350 (low support). Buy 1.6760 target 1.6900. sell 1.7050 target 1.6750, buy break 1.7080 target 1.7250. Sell break 1.6650 target 1.6350 stop 60p. Sell break 1.6340 target 1.6100 stop 100p.

AUD-USD
(-50-50p) AUD breakout uptrend channel minor dalam downtrend channel, menunjukkan potensi technical rebound lebih lanjut, diikuti ADX meningkat, stochastic overbought, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan ke target 0.8500, selama di bawah 0.8130. Resistance di 0.8450/0.8500, support di 0.8350. Buy 0.8350 target 0.8450, sell 0.8500 target 0.8300 & sell break 0.8130 stop 0.8170. sell break 0.8000 target 0.7900. Buy 0.8150 target 0.8300 stop 0.8100.

Laporan Pasar
Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)
Indeks Nikkei ditutup flat kemarin, setelah sempat mencatat level tertinggi baru dalam 10 bulan terakhir. Namun, penguatan indeks Nikkei terhambat oleh aksi profit taking pasca rally yang dialami perdagangan sebelumnya. Saham otomotif dan pembuat ban menguat karena harapan sektor otomotif di nilai terlalu murah. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup turun 4,36 poin, atau 0,04%, ke posisi 10352.47.
Di chart daily, indeks telah menembus formasi double top dan indeks berada dalam uptrend channel, diikuti pola candle menunjukkan white opening marubozu. Sementara sejumlah indikator masih mendukung potensi kenaikan, ADX trending up, stochastic dan MACD bullish, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Resistance di 10500 (upper channel)/10570). Support 10252 (low support) /10090 (lower channel). Perkiraan range hari ini 10250-10500. Rekomendasi Sell 10570 target 10300 stp 100p. Buy 10300 target 10550 stop 100p, Buy 10000 target 10300 stop 50p, sell break 10250 target 10000.

Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Indeks Kospi ditutup naik pada penutupan awal perdagangan minggu ini, dipicu oleh kenaikan saham Hyundai Motor menyusul solidnya penjualan bulan lalu. Sedangkan Hankook Tire rally karena positifnya pernyataan dari broker dan juga menaikkan target harga sahamnya. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup naik 7,69 poin, atau 0,49%, ke posisi 1.564,98 poin.
Dalam chart daily, indeks telah ditutup diatas trendline dan masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel dan membentuk pola broadening bullish, meski menunjukkan pola hite opening marubozu. Kondisi stochastic overbought, MACD bullish dan ADX trending up, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Resistance berada di 204.50/206.50/208.00. Support di 201.40/200.50. Rekomendasi Sell break 200 & 196.00 target 192.00 stop 100p, buy 197.50 target 200.50, buy 185.50 target 183.00 stop 100p. Sell 205.00/206.50 target 200.00 stop 100p Chart KSU9 Daily

Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Juli (HSIN9)
Indeks Hang seng ditutup pada level tertingginya dalam sebelas bulan terakhir kemarin, dalam tiga sesi perdagangan beruntun. Penguatan indeks Hang Seng kali ini didorong oleh baiknya data manufaktur Cina yang meyakinkan investor atas solidnya ekonomi Cina.Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup melonjak 233,93 poin, atau 1,14%, ke posisi 20.807,26, level penutupan tertinggi sejak awal September 2008.
Dalam chart daily, indeks berada dalam pola uptrend channel dalam formasi bullish broadening ,meski menunjukkan pola candle white closing marubozu, ADX meningkat, stochastic crossup, MACD bullish seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan. Resistance di 20,880/21050. Support 20337/19970. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan wave v extended dalam subwave motive (3) cycle B. Rekomendasi : Sell break 20250 target 19980 (or closing) stop 100 p. Buy 20450 target 20750. Buy 19.760 target 19500. Sell 20880 & 21000 target 20500 stop 100p, (+250p) Chart HSIN9 Daily

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