Elliot Wave: Oil Still Below $73

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com

Weekly chart trend: Long. Main price points: $33, and 73. Looking for: Wave 2).
Oil bounced from the trend-line resistance area, where $73 per barrel appears to be the top of wave 1) followed by the current, corrective wave 2). We are looking for the sub-waves of a new up-trend, as red wave B is completed at $33 per barrel. This support area needs to holds in the coming months and years, while wave C develops. Stochastic indicators are also in a pull-back mode, which may suggest a turning point in the coming weeks.



















The 38.2% Fibonacci level may already be the bottom of wave 2).
Daily chart trend: mixed. Main price points: 58.30, and 73.27. Looking for: Break through 73.27
Oil prices on a daily chart are still below the wave 1) top; $73.27 per barrel, which means that there are two possible scenarios. The first one is that wave 2) is already completed around 38.2% of wave 1), at $58.33 per barrel, which means that a break through wave 1) highs is expected.

If the break of 73.27 does not soon happen, then it may also be the case of a more complex wave 2), which means that a turning point into another leg down, below 58.30 is also one of the valid scenarios. Traders should pay attention to a bullish move if the 73.27 area fails or on a more complex wave 2) if the 58.30 support gets broken.

Elliot Wave: Usd/Jpy, Bullish Target at 98.88

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com

4 Hour Chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 91.74, 94.35 and 98.88. Looking for: Wave C, or III.
Yen is trading higher, after a bullish Wall Street close on Friday, in response to the NFP report. We are looking for a near-term bullish wave count with wave C or III in progress, after the market broke through the red wave I/A highs. Traders should be looking for a possible move up, near to the 98.88 target area, so long as the wave II/B, 94.35 low holds.

The Dollar Index: Key To Market Dynamics

By Guy Lerner on August 11, 2009

But I am ahead of myself. So let’s first look at weekly chart of the Dollar Index (black line) versus S&P500 (blue line). See figure 1. For much of the late 1990’s, stocks and the Dollar Index traveled together. These where the days when a strong Dollar and a strong economy and a strong stock market went hand and hand. This was prior to point 1 on the chart. At point 1, the historic multi-decade bull run for equities was over, and several years later at point 2 the US Dollar Index topped out as well. Both asset classes fell together and then equities bottomed at point 3. The Dollar Index continued lower for another 2 years finding a bottom at point 4. From the bottom in equities at point 3 in October, 2002 to the bottom in the Dollar at point 3 in December, 2004, the S&P500 gained 50%!!












So think about this for a minute: if the Dollar continues in a down trend, there is a high likelihood of large losses and these losses should occur over the next year. This will likely keep a bid under equities for longer than most of us are expecting. Commodities will also be strong and should outperform equities. Let’s add a third symbol to figure 1, and this is the CRB Futures Index (gold line). What we see and what we know is that in a falling Dollar environment, commodities will outperform. See figure 4. Equities will be hampered by real or perceived inflationary pressures as trends in commodities and long term Treasury yields rise. Equities will move higher in a falling Dollar environment, but their ascent should be a lot choppier. Furthermore, without real organic growth -marked by job creation and wage inflation and consumer spending outside of government subsidies- any economic recovery will always be questioned for its sustainability.

4 ETFs To Play The Base Metals Boom

By Tom Lydon on August 11, 2009

An uptick in demand and signs of a global recovery within markets and related exchange traded funds(ETFs) will take base metals up on a resurgence for the rest of 2009.Strong employment reports, renewed auto and housing demand and signs of a recovery in China have helped spur the base metals’ strong run, says Sara Jane Tasker for The Australian. The rebound has been so strong that analysts expect it to continue for the rest of 2009.

Some other points:
* According to Citigroup, copper has led the base metal recovery, up $600 in recent trading. So far this year, it has gained 100%.
* Aluminum has climbed around 30% despite its London Metal Exchange inventories remaining at record levels, says Michael Taylor for Reuters.
* Base metals should continue their upward journey as fundamentals in a global recovery strengthen and the demand from China remains healthy.
* China is expected to account for 38% of the world’s copper demand by 2014, up from 28% in 2008.
* SPDR Metals & Mining (XME: 41.29 -1.08 -2.55%): up 53.7% year-to-date; holds companies involved in the metals and mining industries

Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Emiten 11-08-2009

Akumulasi Saham Truba
SEJUMLAH konsorsium broker tengah mengakumulasi saham PT Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering Tbk (TRUB), sehingga harganya bakal terkerek ke kisaran Rp 200-250 dalam jangka pendek. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, adanya kabar bahwa perseroan mengikuti sejumlah tender proyek EPC di pembangkit listrik Teluk Naga, Timur Tengah, dan Asia Pasifik menjadi momentum kenaikan harga TRUB.Terbukti, kata dia, harga TRUB sempat menembus level Rp 193 pada perdagangan Senin (10/8). Kemarin, TRUB ditutup menguat Rp 5 (2,7%) ke posisi Rp 189.

Saham Jasa Marga Berpeluang Rp 2.000
HARGA saham PT Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR) berpeluang menguat menembus level Rp 2.000 dalam waktu dekat. Menurut sumber Investor Daily, rencana pemerintah menaikkan tarif di 20 ruas jalan tol pada awal September bisa mendorong penguatan harga JSMR. Sebab, kata dia, dari 20 ruas tol tersebut, sebanyak 14 ruas adalah milik perseroan.Selain itu, rencana akuisisi tol di Jabodetabek dan Trans Jawa juga bakal berdampak positif. Pada perdagangan kemarin, JSMR ditutup naik Rp 50 (2,8%) ke level Rp 1.790.

Laba Kuartalan Telkom Naik 45%
PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM) secara kuartalan membukukan pertumbuhan laba bersih yang signifikan, meski keuntungan semester I-2009 turun dibanding periode sama 2008. Pada kuartal II-2009, Telkom meraih laba bersih Rp 3,59 triliun, naik 45,9% dibandingkan kuartal sebelumnya Rp 2,46 triliun.

Pertumbuhan ekonomi RI Q2 4.0% y/y, 2.6% q/q, H1 2009 4.2% lebih baik dari perkiraan analis.

Regional Asia positif, Nikkei 225, hang Seng, Shanghai COmposite setelah data Industrial Output, Retail Sales, PPI China tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar.

Wow! Laba Bersih ITMG Naik 128,74%
PT Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk (ITMG) berhasil meraup laba bersih sebesar US$158,7 juta pada semester I-2009 atau naik 128,74% dibanding periode yang sama 2008 yang meraup laba US$69,38 juta.

Lippo Karawaci Bukukan Laba Rp 209 M
Laba PT Lippo Karawaci Tbk (LPKR) pada semester I 2009 naik 2,2% menjadi Rp209 miliar dari periode yang sama tahun lalu Rp204 miliar karena penjualan mengalami kenaikan.

Harga saham PT Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk (RALS) akan berpeluang naik lantaran adanya sentimen positif dari datangna Lebaran.

Utang MIRA Baru Mulai Jatuh Tempo September
PT Mitra International Resources (MIRA) Tbk membantah memiliki utang jatuh tempo senilai US$ 200 juta pada 30 Juni 2009 lalu.

Kontrak Banyak, Beli HEXA
PT Hexindo Adi Perkasa Tbk (HEXA) berpeluang dapat memenuhi target pendapatan dan laba bersih tahun ini karena banyak mendapatkan kontrak.

ASII Beli Saham Astra Otoparts
PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) telah membeli 13.477.500 saham dengan harga pembelian Rp3.450 per saham.

Antam akan Gandeng PIP Beli Saham Divestasi Newmont
PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) siap memimpin konsorsium yang akan membeli sebagian saham divestasi milik PT Newmont Nusa Tenggara yang menjadi hak pemerintah pusat.

MEGA Lepas Wali Amanat CMNP
Ada lowongan menjadi wali amanat obligasi PT Citra Marga Nusaphala Persada senilai Rp 100 miliar. Bank Mega mundur dari posisi wali amanat CMNP.

ELTY: Akan Tarik Bridging Loan dari Avenue Rp700 M
ELTY berencana akan menarik pinjaman darurat (bridging loan) dari salah satu pemegang sahamnya Avenue Luxembourg SARL sebesar Rp700 miliar dari total Rp1 tn untuk mendanai biaya pembebasan lahan serta biaya penyelesaian tol Kanci-Pejagan hingga siap diperasikan di awal November 2009 dari sebelumnya Rp500 miliar menjadi Rp700 miliar terkait harga tanah yang naik dengan cepat.

ISAT: Berniat Terbitkan Obligasi Rp 1 T
ISAT disinyalir akan menerbitkan obligasi senilai Rp1,5 triliun bertenor 7 tahun dan 5 tahun pada 4Q09. Mandiri Sekuritas, Danareksa Sekuritas, dan DBS Vickers Securities Indonesia telah ditunjuk sebagai underwriter. Sementara itu, perseroan belum mau menanggapi berita tersebut.

Medco Dapat Kontrak Baru Pasok Gas
Medco Energi International Tbk melalui anak usahanya PT Medco E&P Indonesia (MEPI) telah meneken perjanjian jual beli gas (PJBG) pada 4 Agustus 2009 untuk memasok 2,5 BBTUPD dari lapangan Temelat ke perusahaan daerah Mura Energi.

Sumber: Inilah.com,Kontan, Detik.com, Bloomberg, Reuters.
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