EUR-USD
(+70p) Euro menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola tweezer top (indikasi toppish dalam waktu dekat), meski masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan diatas former high 1.4843, seharusnya dukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Indikator ADX menguat, stochastic & MACD overbought, ikut dukung perkiraan kenaikan terbatas. Support di 1.4845/1.4790 (channel support). Resistance di 1.4970/1.5080. Euro menunjukkan wave 3/5 dalam B/X untuk target 1.5000, selama tidak menembus 1.4770. Buy 1.4780 target 1.4920, buy 1.4480 target 1.4800, buy 1.4850 target 1.4980 stop 1.4800, sell 1.4990 & sell 1.5100 target 1.4750 stop 1.5150.USD-JPY
(-30p) USDJPY memberikan signal positif dari pola candle long bullish setelah ditutup diatas 90.77, menunjukkan breakout downtrend channel, menunjukkan potensi kenaikan pekan ini. Indikator ADX rebound, MACD bearish & stochastic cross buy seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas, meski potensi penurunan di bawah 90 terbatas. Resistance berada di 91.70/92.40, support di 90.70/89.80. Saat ini berada di wave v/B. Sell 91.70 target 89.80 stop 60p, sell break 89.80 target 88.80 stop 50p, buy 87.50 target 90.70 stop 50p. Buy 88.30 target 90.70, sell break 87.00 target 85.00 stop 50p.
GBP-USD
(+60p) GBP menunjukkan signal positif dari dari pola candle 4 bullish (potensi bullish continuation) dan breakout double top daily di 1.6125, didukung indikator ADX rebound, stochastic crossup buy, MACD rebound, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi technical rebound lebih lanjut target 1.6455 (trendline). GBP berada dalam trend netral setelah ditutup diatas 1.6150 untuk target 1.6470. Hitungan EW menunjukkan GBP di wave 5/c dalam 4. Buy 1.6280 target 1.6460 stop 50p, buy break 1.6480 target 1.6650, sell 1.6450 target 1.6150 stop 60p, Buy 1.6150 target 1.6470 stop 30p, sell break 1.6120 target 1.5850 stop 60p, buy 1.5850 target 1.6350.AUD-USD
(+130+40p) Potensi kenaikan AUD diperkirakan terbatas karena menunjukkan pola candle dark cloud cover (indikasi reversal), meski berada di uptrend channel, diikuti ADX meningkat, MACD & stochastic bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Meski signal overbought di stochastic dan middle line channel dapat menahan laju kenaikan AUD-USD. Hitungan EW menunjukkan AUD berada di wave 5/3 dalam B. Resistance 0.9270/0.9320, support di 0.9120/0.9090. Buy 0.9100 target 0.9250, sell break 0.9080 target 0.9000 stop 70p & sell 0.9250 target 0.9100 stop 60p, buy 0.9000 target 0.9400 stop 50p.
www.strategydesk.co.id
Globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Monday, October 19, 2009
Potensi Profit Taking = Peluang Buy on Weakness Indeks Asia
Nikkei menunjukkan pola dark cloud cover yang menunjukkan potensi bearish reversal, kendati masih berada dalam uptrend channel, seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas, meski secara keseluruhan trend netral jangka pendek. Sementara indikator stochastic crossup buy dan MACD netral, ADX rebound, seharusnya dukung technical rebound. Indeks ditutup diatas 10150 (former low) mendukung potensi technical rebound. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks berada di wave 3/c dalam wave 4. Resistance di 10320/10450. Support 10150 (low)/10000. Rekomendasi buy break 10220 target 10450 stp 100p, Buy 10150 target 10400 stop 150p, buy 10155 target 10275 stop 10080. Sell 10450 target 10150 stop 60p.
Indeks menunjukkan signal negatfi dari pola candle long bearish candle setelah sebelumnya menunjukkan shooting star (indikasi reversal) dalam pola uptrend channel, seharusnya dukung potensi kenaikan terbatas, meski indeks gagal ditutup diatas 61.8% di 219.09, diikuti stochastic crossingup, volume menunjukkan koreksi penurunan, Indikator ADX terkoreksi, MACD bearish, ikut dukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks di wave v/3 dalam 4. Resistance 219.45/222.30. Support 214.95/211.50. Rekomendasi Buy 212.60 target 219.00 stop 100p, Sell 221.00 target 214.00, buy break 223.00 target 225.50 stop 60p, buy break 218.00 target 222.00 stop 100p. (-100p)
Indeks menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola homing pidgeon (indikasi reversal) meski masih berada di dalam uptrend channel, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Sementara indikator ADX rebound, MACD bullish & stochastic crosing up, seharusnya ikut mendukung perkiraan kenaikan masih terbuka. Indeks mendapatkan resistance 22280/22450. Support di 21900/21700. Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan koreksi wave a/B. Rekomendasi: sell break 21650 target 21250 stop 100p. buy 21700 target 22250 stop 100p. Buy 21250 target 21300. stop 20790. Buy break 22290 target 22450 stop 100p, Sell 22400 target 21800 stop 100p.
www.strategydesk.co.id
Indeks menunjukkan signal negatfi dari pola candle long bearish candle setelah sebelumnya menunjukkan shooting star (indikasi reversal) dalam pola uptrend channel, seharusnya dukung potensi kenaikan terbatas, meski indeks gagal ditutup diatas 61.8% di 219.09, diikuti stochastic crossingup, volume menunjukkan koreksi penurunan, Indikator ADX terkoreksi, MACD bearish, ikut dukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks di wave v/3 dalam 4. Resistance 219.45/222.30. Support 214.95/211.50. Rekomendasi Buy 212.60 target 219.00 stop 100p, Sell 221.00 target 214.00, buy break 223.00 target 225.50 stop 60p, buy break 218.00 target 222.00 stop 100p. (-100p)
Indeks menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola homing pidgeon (indikasi reversal) meski masih berada di dalam uptrend channel, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Sementara indikator ADX rebound, MACD bullish & stochastic crosing up, seharusnya ikut mendukung perkiraan kenaikan masih terbuka. Indeks mendapatkan resistance 22280/22450. Support di 21900/21700. Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan koreksi wave a/B. Rekomendasi: sell break 21650 target 21250 stop 100p. buy 21700 target 22250 stop 100p. Buy 21250 target 21300. stop 20790. Buy break 22290 target 22450 stop 100p, Sell 22400 target 21800 stop 100p.
www.strategydesk.co.id
Oil & Gold Weekly Technical Outlook
ONG Focus - Technical. Written by Oil N' Gold
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil rose sharply to as high as 78.75 last week and closed strongly. The break of 75.0 resistance confirms that medium term rally has resumed. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 58.32 to 75 from 65.05 at 81.72 next. On the downside, below 76.80 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat, probably to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 73.98). But downside should be contained by 71.39 resistance turned support and bring another rise.
In the bigger picture, the strong break of 75.0 resistance confirms that medium term rebound from 33.2 has resumed and further rally should be seen. Note that crude oil is now in an important resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2). As we're expecting rise from 33.2 to conclude in this zone, we'll look for sign of loss of momentum in the current rise, as well as reversal sign. Nevertheless, note that break of 65.05 is needed to indicate that crude oil has topped out. Otherwise, further rise is still in favor.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold edged higher to 1072 last week but retreated since then. A short term top might be in place with bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Some more consolidation would likely be seen initially this week, with risk of further pull back. But after all, we'd expect downside to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 931.3 to 1072 at 1018.3 and bring rally resumption. Above 1072 will target 1100 psychological resistance next.
In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1033.9 high confirms that long term up trend in Gold has resumed. Rise from 681 would likely develop into another set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 first and then 100% projection at 1258 next. On the downside, though, break of 985.5 support will dampen this bullish view and will turn focus back to 931.3 support instead.
In the long term picture, as discussed before, rise form 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. The strong break of 1033.9 resistance affirms this case and should pave the way to 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 and then 100% projection at 1460 level. We'll maintain this bullish view as long as 931.3 support holds.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil rose sharply to as high as 78.75 last week and closed strongly. The break of 75.0 resistance confirms that medium term rally has resumed. Initial bias remains on the upside this week and further rise should be seen to 100% projection of 58.32 to 75 from 65.05 at 81.72 next. On the downside, below 76.80 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring retreat, probably to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 73.98). But downside should be contained by 71.39 resistance turned support and bring another rise.
In the bigger picture, the strong break of 75.0 resistance confirms that medium term rebound from 33.2 has resumed and further rally should be seen. Note that crude oil is now in an important resistance zone of 76.77/90.24 (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2). As we're expecting rise from 33.2 to conclude in this zone, we'll look for sign of loss of momentum in the current rise, as well as reversal sign. Nevertheless, note that break of 65.05 is needed to indicate that crude oil has topped out. Otherwise, further rise is still in favor.
In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While there rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold edged higher to 1072 last week but retreated since then. A short term top might be in place with bearish divergence conditions in 4 hours MACD and RSI. Some more consolidation would likely be seen initially this week, with risk of further pull back. But after all, we'd expect downside to be contained by 38.2% retracement of 931.3 to 1072 at 1018.3 and bring rally resumption. Above 1072 will target 1100 psychological resistance next.
In the bigger picture, the strong break of 1033.9 high confirms that long term up trend in Gold has resumed. Rise from 681 would likely develop into another set of five wave sequence with first wave completed at 1007.7, second wave triangle consolidation completed at 931.3. Rise from 931.3 is expected to extend to 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2 first and then 100% projection at 1258 next. On the downside, though, break of 985.5 support will dampen this bullish view and will turn focus back to 931.3 support instead.
In the long term picture, as discussed before, rise form 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. The strong break of 1033.9 resistance affirms this case and should pave the way to 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 and then 100% projection at 1460 level. We'll maintain this bullish view as long as 931.3 support holds.
Sunday, October 18, 2009
Week Ahead: Earnings Could Keep the Bulls Running
Corporate earnings will trump almost everything for the stock market in the coming week.
A string of better-than-expected third quarter earnings reports have helped fuel the stock market rally, taking the Dow above 10,000 for the first time in a year. But on Friday, disappointing results from General Electric [GE 16.08  -0.71 (-4.23%)]and Bank of America drove stocks lower, showing how sensitive the market is to earnings news.
http://mobile.cnbc.com/inf/infomo?site=cnbcusa&view=us_newsd&feed:a=topstories&feed:c=topstories&feed:i=33351707&all=1
A string of better-than-expected third quarter earnings reports have helped fuel the stock market rally, taking the Dow above 10,000 for the first time in a year. But on Friday, disappointing results from General Electric [GE 16.08  -0.71 (-4.23%)]and Bank of America drove stocks lower, showing how sensitive the market is to earnings news.
http://mobile.cnbc.com/inf/infomo?site=cnbcusa&view=us_newsd&feed:a=topstories&feed:c=topstories&feed:i=33351707&all=1
Van Agtmael Says Best Gains in Emerging Markets Over
(Bloomberg) -- The largest gains in the developing- nation rally may be over as valuations have become less attractive, said investor Antoine van Agtmael, who coined the term “emerging markets.”
In the next six months, stock markets are unlikely to repeat the “100 percent returns” generated since March, van Agtmael, who oversees about $12 billion as chairman and chief investment officer of Emerging Markets Management LLC, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television from Washington today. Stocks are “fairly priced,” he added.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ak.8x4BgUvwc
In the next six months, stock markets are unlikely to repeat the “100 percent returns” generated since March, van Agtmael, who oversees about $12 billion as chairman and chief investment officer of Emerging Markets Management LLC, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television from Washington today. Stocks are “fairly priced,” he added.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ak.8x4BgUvwc
Subscribe to:
Comments (Atom)