Update Daily Investment News

S&P Will Correct to 2009 March 5 Low: Charts
By: CNBC.com
The S&P 500 index is likely to correct down to the low of 677 hit on March 5 2009, Bill McLaren, independent trader, said on Friday.But the decline will be interspersed with "counter-trend rallies" which usually last two to four trading days, he added. McLaren told CNBC he sees the broader index reaching 960 on March 1.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35253845

Week Ahead: Market Still Feels Sting of the Credit Crisis
By: Patti Domm CNBC Executive Editor
Wall Street will keep a cautious eye on Europe in the week ahead, as the global credit crisis proved it still carries a potent sting for markets.Concerns about European sovereign debt started with Greece early in the past week and moved onto Portugal, Spain and other countries. By Thursday, a global sell off intensified, taking stocks and commodities lower. The dollar firmed, the euro fell, and investors fled to the relative safety of U.S. Treasurys.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35265314

Buy Stock Now to Ride Second Stage of Bull Market: John Dorfman
(Bloomberg) -- From Jan. 19 through Feb. 4, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, a decent gauge of the overall U.S. stock market, dropped about 8 percent. Among the reasons sparking the decline were President Barack Obama’s proposed tax on banks and a congressional deadlock on health-care legislation. Some stock-market pundits take the drop as a sign that the stock surge that began March 9, 2009, is over, or almost over.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aPkRyJG9weGQ

China Stocks Far From ‘Real Bull Market,’ Morgan Stanley Says
(Bloomberg) -- China stocks are “distant from a real bull market” as funds under the Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors, or QDII, program saw net redemptions in the fourth quarter of 2009, Morgan Stanley said. “Net redemption lingered, suggesting that retail investors remain bearish in general, and therefore we are still far away from a real bull market,” Allen Gui and Jerry Lou, analysts at Morgan Stanley, said in a research report today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ac5yoZA._pCM

Expect Further 5% Correction, At Least: Strategist
The brutal sell-off on Wall Street on Thursday, which resulted in the Dow losing 4-percent so far year-to-date, could very well be the mythical correction we've been hearing about for months. As I mentioned in a CNBC commentary earlier this year, the market did seem to be getting a bit ahead of itself. It appears Europe's economic problems are finally getting under investors' skin - we now have an environment where Wall Street is reminded about 2008's financial meltdown, like a re-emerging bad memory. There were already brewing concerns about sovereign troubles in Europe; we now have facts and they don't look encouraging.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35250343

Dow 10,000, Fast Money's Correction Survival Guide
By: Lee Brodie Producer
Investors are bracing for a bumpy ride, after the Dow [.DJIA Loading... () ] briefly fell below the psychologically important 10,000 mark on Thursday before bouncing modestly at the close.But that bounce was little consequence for bulls. By the end of trading, stocks had suffered their worst losses in more than nine months after concerns about the debt of Greece and some other nations in Europe triggered widespread selling.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/35238103

Indonesia May Raise Interest Rate by June as Inflation Quickens
(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s central bank may raise interest rates by the end of June as inflation accelerates, after leaving borrowing costs at a record low this month to support economic growth. Bank Indonesia will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 6.5 percent for a sixth straight month today, according to all 23 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The decision is due after noon in Jakarta. Twelve of 17 analysts surveyed expect the rate to increase by the end of June.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aQ6WmMq4YNwg

Greenspan Says Unemployment Not Likely to Fall Soon
(Bloomberg) -- Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said it is “very difficult” to see U.S. unemployment falling soon and that an economic recovery is “going to be a slow, trudging thing.” He also expressed concern about falling stock prices. While the recession is “essentially over,” Greenspan said “it’s very difficult to make the case that unemployment is coming down any time soon.” The former Fed chief spoke on NBC’s “Meet the Press” program.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ahAoBr36HNGQ

Weekly Review Of The Dow, Shanghai Stock Exchange And Hang Seng
By Tradesman on February 7, 2010
Dow Jones
What a week for Dow Jones. The first 2 days of rise was accompanied by low volume and showed lack of strength in the index. The drop on Thursday (268 points ) and Friday ( 176 intraday loss ) has already confirmed the formation of a down channel as depicted in the chart below. Friday’s rebound in the last hour due to better than expected employment data in US, recovers the Dow Jones to positive territory. Nevertheless, the trend is down with clear channel formed and the region of 10192 - 10235 should form the resistance of the upper channel for any technical rebound. I would be more biased towards short positions.
6 Feb DJ
















Shanghai Stock Exchange
The SSE did not manage to recover above 3000 point following last week’s drop and has been consolidating between 2918 and 3008. This zone seems to be the base for any technical rebounds. On Friday, SSE manage to barely hold around 2918 low point with a doji candlestick. On the mid term horizon, SSE will continue to undergo short selling pressures and the 200D MA around 3000 point will be the immediate resistance it would have to surmount to have a successful rebound.
6 Feb SSE
















Hang Seng
The 600 pt drop on Friday brought Hang Seng to the base of a down trend channel that extends from the head of the head and shoulder formation. Any rebound would have to clear 20148 ( 200D MA ) and will meet with channel resistance at 20433.
















Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook
ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Feb 06 10 04:14 ET
Crude oil's rebound from 72.43 was limited at 78.04 last week and fall from 83.95 then resumed by diving to as low as 69.50 before closing at 71.19. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and deeper decline should now be seen to 100% projection of 83.95 to 72.43 from 78.04 at 66.52 next. On the upside, above 73.94 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But upside should be limited below 78.04 resistance and bring fall resumption. In the bigger picture, the strong break of medium term trend line support added much credence to the case of reversal. Medium term rise from 33.2, which is treated as a correction to fall from 147.27, should have completed at 83.95 already, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Current fall from 83.95 should extend through 68.59 support towards next key cluster level at 58.32 (50% retracement of 33.2 to 83.95 at 58.58). Decisive break there will strongly suggest that whole decline from 147.27 is resuming for a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 78.04 resistance is needed to indicate that fall from 83.95 has completed. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.In the long term picture, there is no change in the view that fall from 147.27 is part of the correction to the five wave sequence from 98 low of 10.65. While the rebound from 33.2 is strong and might continue, there is no solid evidence that suggest fall 147.27 is completed and we're still preferring the case that rebound from 33.2 is merely a corrective rise only. Having said that, strong resistance should be seen between 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone and bring reversal for another low below 33.2 before completing the whole correction from 147.27.



















Gold Weekly Technical Outlook
ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold | Sat Feb 06 10 04:15 ET
Gold's fall resumed after recovery was limited at 1126.4 and has finally broke through 1075 support and reached as low as 1044.5 last week. Initial bias remains on the downside this week and further decline should be seen. Break of 100% projection of 1163 to 1074.4 from 1126.4 at 1037.8 next will target 1000 psychological level next. On the upside, above 1070.0 minor resistance will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But recovery should be limited below 1126.4 resistance and bring fall resumption. In the bigger picture, gold has made a medium term top at 1227.5 and correction from there is likely still in progress to 100% projection of 1227.2 to 1075.2 from 1163 at 1010.7, which is close to 1000 psychological level. However, we'd expect such correction to be contained there at around 1000 psychological level and bring resumption of the whole up trend from 2008 low of 681. A break above 1126.4 resistance will indicate that such correction has completed and will turn outlook bullish for another high above 1227.5. However, note that sustained trading below 1000 will dampen our view and put 931.3 key structural support into focus. In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1460 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 931.3 structural support holds.



















Rubber May Drop as Strong Dollar, Prius Recall May Hurt Demand
(Bloomberg) -- Rubber, little changed in Asia, may decline as a strong dollar reduces the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment and a possible recall by Toyota Motor Corp. of its Prius cars may slow auto sales. Futures in Tokyo fluctuated after slumping 5.3 percent on Feb. 5, the biggest daily loss since Sept. 14. The commodity used in car tires has fallen 12 percent from this year’s peak of 306 yen per kilogram ($3,424 a metric ton) on Jan. 15.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aed9dbaUFqXw

Thai Stocks May Slide After ‘Double Top’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Thailand’s SET Index may slide as much as 20 percent after twice failing to breach peaks in the past four months, according to Kasikorn Securities Co. A “double top” formation, or approximately equal peaks either side of a moderate trough, was a “dangerous indicator” in the medium term, the brokerage said in a report today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=arHsNtlHStJo

‘Hungry Bears’ Halt Malaysian Stocks Rally: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Malaysia’s benchmark stock index may extend declines after sliding below the 100-day moving average, halting a rally that lasted almost a year, according to OSK Research Sdn. Malaysia’s FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index slumped 1.4 percent to 1,247.90 on Feb. 5, the steepest decline since Aug. 17, and below the 100-day moving average of 1,258.17. Ten-day implied volatility on the stock index rose to 10.6 that day, the highest level since Aug. 27, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aiGXuPyhUjzs

Futures Traders Increase Bets Euro Will Decline to a Record
(Bloomberg) -- Futures traders increased bets to a record level that the euro will decline against the U.S. dollar on concern budget deficits in Greece and other European nations will hamper the region’s economic growth. The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a decline in the euro compared with those on a gain, the net position, was 43,741 on on Feb. 2, compared with 39,539 a week earlier, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission show.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=agUhfMPn3D3M

Aussie to Drop on Rates, RBC, Commonwealth Bank Say
(Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar may extend this week’s decline and drop to 82 U.S. cents by mid-year on prospects the central bank will raise interest rates at a slower pace than traders had anticipated, RBC Capital Markets said. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, 2009’s second-most accurate forecaster for the Australian dollar, lowered its expectations of gains in the currency, saying it may end this year at 85 cents after peaking at 88 cents in the second quarter. The so- called Aussie is the worst performer this week against the dollar and yen among its 16 most-traded counterparts after the central bank unexpectedly kept rates unchanged on Feb. 2.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=awfYlXby16YE

Copper Declines to Three-Month Low on Global-Economy Concerns
(Bloomberg) -- Copper dropped to a three-month low on concern that U.S. job losses and European budget gaps will stifle a global economic recovery. Zinc slid to the lowest price since October. U.S. payrolls shed 20,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said today. Analysts expected a gain. Global equities fell as Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said he has no plans to offer new steps to curb the nation’s budget deficit. Copper has dropped 16 percent in the four weeks since Jan. 8, while zinc is down 23 percent.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ac.2JAwXs464

Roubini Sees Dollar Falling Versus Asian Currencies
(Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the credit crisis, expects the dollar to weaken against Asian and “commodity” currencies such as the Brazilian real over the next two or three years.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDV9aUi1.h0Q

Free Workshop Technical Analysis Stocks & Futures

PT UBI Securities & PT Harumdana Berjangka, Sabtu, 06 Februari 2010
Menara BCA Lt 49. Jakarta Indonesia
IHSG













DJIA Weekly













Euro-dollar Daily













Pound-dollar Daily













Hang Seng Weekly













Next week to be release in this blog (globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com): Prospek Saham Indonesia & Investasi Global 2010 (55 Pages): PT Universal Broker Indonesia Securities (TF) & PT Harumdana Berjangka.

Track Record Saham IHSG PT Universal Broker Indonesia Securities (TF): Periode 17 Juni 2009 - 05 Feb 2010 = 31 Pekan

Survival dari Minor Crash IHSG -92 poin (-3.6%; 2.518,976) Pekan ini; Return UBI Top 30 +1.04%.
Top Pick Pekan Depan akan anda dapatkan pada Free Workshop TA Stock & Futures (Sabtu; 06/02; 09.30 WIB).

Track Record (01 – 05 Feb 10) = +1.04%.
Average 123.60% (29 Pekan) + 1.04% (total +31.47% dari 30 Saham Pilihan Pekan ini: 01 - 05 Feb 2010) = Total 124.109% (Profit: 30 Pekan / Loss: 1 Pekan; Profit dalam 13 Pekan terakhir; sebelumnya 13 pekan lalu 18 pekan berturut-turut Positive Return) = Average 4.003%/Week. Outperform IHSG ditutup di 2.518.976 (-91.784 poin = -3.51%) pekan ini & dalam 31 pekan = +24.774% (IHSG Range 768 poin: 1,750-2,518); Average 0.799%/week.

(Closing 04/02; 10 saham): ASRI +17,2%/BCIP +5,4%/DOID +3,8%/BBTN +4,8%/KLBF +1,9%/BMTR +4,0%/COWL + 14.6%/ATPK+2,0%/CFIN 0%/INKP 0% = 53.7%
(Closing 05/02; 20 saham): BUMI -3.3%/BSDE +4.4%/BMRI -3.7%/ADRO 0%/SDRA -5.45%/DEWA -4.8%/BTEL -5.9%/BBRI -2.0%/SMCB +3.1%/TLKM -2.1%/PGAS -0.675%/BKDP +3.1%/HEXA +4.8%/UNTR -2.4%/ANTM 0%/INDF 0%/HMSP +1.14%/BVIC -2.7%/KIJA -2.5%/BWPT -3.3% = 22.23%.
Profit 14 Saham; Neutral 5 saham; Loss 11 Saham.
Total closing 30 saham (04 - 05 Feb) = +53.7% - 22.23% = +31.47% : 30 = +1,049%/saham.

Track Record (23 - 29 Januari 2010):
PGAS +2.7%/BBTN +8.0%/BMTR +4.1%/BUMI +1.0%/BISI -0.6%/CTRA 0%/DOID +4.6%/UNTR +3.0% /DILD -1.1%/BKSL -3.2%/ MPPA 6.0%/KLBF +8.4%/ASII +7.4%/MAPI +4.2%/ELTY 8.1%/BHIT -10%.

Track Record (14 - 22 Januari 2010):
BNBR -6,4%/TLKM -0,53%/BSDE +4,76%/ELTY +2%/UNTR -0,57%/INKP 0%/HMSP +13,8%/CTRP -3,44%/SMCB +4,24%/DOID +12,5%/BUMI -3,60%/SMRA +6,25%/ASRI -2,54%/SDRA -5,7%/TRUB -9,7%/INDY 2,91%/MAPI +4,76%/RALS +8,0%/ASGR +7,5%/BCIP -9.5%.2

Track Record (05 - 12 Januari 2010)
BUMI +17,2%/BBCA +1,9%/BMRI -1,5%/BBRI 0%/SGRO 7,0%/ ASII -0,14%/AALI 5,0%/INKP +19,8%/JSMR +1,6%/INDF +3,33%/HMSP 13,3%/HEXA +19,2%/TLKM -1,04%/CSAP -9.5%/TINS +6,8%/ANTM +2,15%/INCO +1,9%/UNTR +12,5%/PTBA 1,1%/ADRO +12,5%/DOID -2,3%/CTRA +24,5%/BSDE -1,1%/TBLA 5,33%

Track Record ( 28 Des - 30 Des 09) = +3,40%
BUMI +8,6%/PTBA +2,36%/ DOID +13,5%/ASII +1,7%/BRPT +3,8%/SGRO +2,8%
/HEXA +5,0%/ADRO 0% /ITMG +0,6%/BBRI 0%/BMRI +2.3%/INCO +2.0%/ TINS
+5,8%/ ANTM +1,1%/TLKM 0%/ELTY -1,0%/DEWA +9.3%

Track Record (16 Des - 23 Des 09)
BMRI +1.1%/ASII +0.58%/UNVR +0.44%/MNCN -4.6%/BSDE 0%/ANTM -1.1%/INDF +3.78%/GGRM +1.5%/UNTR +0.9%/HEXA -2.4%/PGAS -1.3%/SMGR +4.7%/INTP +3.9%/SMCB -1.3%/LSIP -4.1%/INKP +1.1%/BBTN +3.7%/BUMI 0%/TLKM -2.2%/ADRO -1.7%/ASRI -4.5%/SGRO 0%/BKDP +8.1%/INDY +3.7%/INCO +1.5%/DOID 1.3%/GDST -9.9%.

Track Record (09 Des - 14 Des 09)
BUMI 2.450 +3.9%/BMRI +2.7%/BBRI +1.9%/ASII +2.8%/UNVR +1.35%/TLKM +4.8%/BSDE +10%/JSMR +1.06%/ANTM +2.2%/INDF 0%/GGRM +15.5%/UNTR +10.9%/HEXA +6.8%/INCO 0%/BKSL 0%/PGAS +4.5% /SMGR 3.44%/INTP 4.09%

Track Record (25 Nov - 03 Des 09)
BUMI 2.575 (0%)/PTBA 15.750 (+17.7%)/ADRO 1.710 (+3.5%)/BMRI 4.600 (+1.08%)/ BBRI 7.600 (+5.9%)/ BKSL 101 (-4.9%)/RAJA 215 (-2.3%)/CTRA 550 (-1.8%)/BSDE 820 (+3.65%)/BTEL 155 (+1.29%)/INDF 3.175 (0%)/ BNBR 100 (+1.0%)/ KLBF 1.270 (+0.78%)/BRPT 1.330 (+2.2%)/ELTY 23 0 (+4.3%).

Track Record (19 - 23 November 2009)
BUMI +11.7%/DEWA +3.7%/PGAS +1.9%/DOID -0.6%/ASII +0.9%/MEDC 3.7%/ANTM 4.2%/SMGR 0%/HEXA -0.84%/TRUB +4.8%/BKSL +10.1%/PTBA 6.7%/ENRG +5.2%/BMRI +1.06%/TLKM 1.1%

Track Record Periode 09 Nov - 17 Nov: (24 Posisi)
PTBA 5.4%/DOID 10.0%/BBRI 3.3%/BBCA 0.5%/BMRI 0%/ MEDC 2.8%/PGAS 3.4%/JSMR 2.7%/SMRA 0%/CTRS -5.8%/SGRO 3.0%/ INDF 3.2%/KLBF 2.2%/GGRM 1.7%/SMCB 4.9%/SMGR 0%/ANTM 11.2%/MYOR 14.2%/UNVR 7.8%/ITMG 17.9%/BUMI 12.6%/ENRG 1.7%/ TRUB 9.7%/ASII 3.9%/FREN 3.7%

Track Record Periode 26 Okt - 06 Nov: (29 Posisi):
BBRI +2.7/BMRI 0%/PTBA -0.67%/ADRO 0%/PGAS +0.68%/SDRA 0%/AKRA +6.8%/BSDE +12.6%/SMGR 11.1%/SMRA +13.0%/BUMI +11.36%/ENRG +30%/HEXA 4.4%/MEDC 4.8%/BBCA +2.7%/INCO 0%/PGAS +2.7%/SMCB -1.2%/ASII -1.2%/INDF +2.4%/GGRM +12.2%/TRUB 0%/ANTM 3.2%/INKP -9.5%/BUMI -2.04%/SMCB 2.5%/ENRG 9.2%/ASII -0.6%/INDF 5.08%. Total Profit +122.21% untuk 29 posisi.

Track Record Periode 19 - 23 Okt:
BUMI (3.000) -9.16%, JSMR (1.860) -1.07%, INCO (4.225) +1.18%, PGAS (3.750) 0%, PTBA (14.650) +2.39%, ANTM (2.625) -0.95%, SMGR 6.950 -2.1%, UNTR (16.500) -3.03%, SMCB (1.640) -1.8%, KLBF (1.340) -2.2%/HEXA 3.075 -0.8%, SGRO (2.400) 2.08%,BMRI (4.775) -1.04%, BBRI (7.850) -3.18%, AALI (22.200) -0.45%, TLKM (8.650) +0.57%, UNVR (10.850) -3.38%, ADRO (1.510) +7.94%, BBCA (4.775) 0%, ITMG (24.450) 0% (+Dividen Rp 648).

Track Record Periode 12 - 16 Okt:
BUMI (2900) +4.3%, INDF (3100) +3.2%, JSMR (1800) +3.9%, ASII (33500)-0.6%, ANTM (2600) +1.9%, TLKM (8650) +0.6%, UNVR (11000) 0%, UNTR (15500) +7.7%, SMCB (1550) +7.1%, KLBF (1320) +2.3%, BMRI (4875) +1.03%, BBRI (8050) -0.62%, SMGR (6700) +5.2%, BSDE (640) +12.5%, PGAS (3575) +4.9%, MEDC (3175) 0%, INCO (4150) +2.4%, TINS (2200) +1.1%, SDRA (320) 1.5%.

Track Record Periode 17 Juni - 09 Okt 2009 lainnya bisa dilihat di blog (globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com).
Disclaimer On.

Meningkatnya Sentimen Negatif Picu Risk Averse Untuk Saham & Komoditi

IHSG Outlook
Momentum kenaikan IHSG tidak sekuat perkiraan sebelumnya, berkat spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global dapat terganggu oleh memburuknya situasi finansial sejumlah negara di Eropa (Portugal, Spanyol, Yunani) yang mengalami kesulitan untuk mendanai defisit anggaran dan lemahnya data penjualan ritel Australia bulan Desember, mendukung langkah bank sentral Australia untuk menahan laju suku bunga kemarin, membebani kinerja indeks saham regional Asia yang berimbas negatif kepada IHSG. Kondisi tersebut memperburuk prospek saham global di pekan mendatang, karena masih dibayangi kekhawatiran pengetatan kredit dari China hingga India, mendorong spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga di bulan mendatang, dapat menurunkan daya tarik untuk saham dan komoditi global. Meski prospek saham domestik masih lebih baik ketimbang saham regional Asia lainnya, berkat solidnya pertumbuhan ekonomi dan emiten domestik di tahun 2009, didukung oleh keputusan BI tetap menahan laju suku bunga 6,5%, cadangan devisa melonjak hingga $ 69,6 miliar di akhir bulan lalu dan antisipasi 2 IPO listing pekan depan (PT.PP & PT.Benakat) dapat menopang kinerja IHSG.

Global Outlook
Meningkatnya sentimen negatif dari benua Eropa dan AS, dapat menghambat momentum indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street untuk rebound di akhir pekan ini, setelah investor khawatir terhadap kemampuan sejumlah negara di Eropa (Portugal, Spanyol, Yunani) membiayai defisit anggaran di tahun ini, meski Presiden ECB Trichet setelah memutuskan menahan laju suku bunga di 1,0%, menyatakan yakin Yunani dapat memangkas defisit anggaran, diperburuk oleh kenaikan lebih tinggi dari prediksi pasar dalam data Jobless Claims (480K) di pekan lalu dan laporan dari MasterCard Inc dan Kellog Co yang mengalami penurunan pendapatan, diikuti Boeing Co mendapatkan sentimen negatif dari prediksi Boeing Co dan Airbus terhadap lesunya permintaan dalam 2 tahun mendatang. Kekhawatiran terhadap rating utang AS setelah Moody’s akan meninjau kembali rating AAA milik AS jika tidak ada perubahan dari defisit anggaran, ikut membebani kinerja saham Wall Street di akhir pekan ini. Meski di pekan ini data ISM AS meningkat dari periode sebelumnya, Productivity Q4 AS melonjak 6,2%, Unit Labor Cost merosot ke 4,4% dan 77% emiten di S&P 500 yang telah merilis earning untuk Q4 2009 tercatat melampaui estimasi EPS analis, seharusnya memberikan support kepada indeks saham global, menjelang dtaa tenaga kerja AS dan pertemuan G7.
PT. Universal Broker Indonesia Securities (TF). UBI Newwsletter Vol 380

Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Saham Indonesia 05-02

Harga saham PT Perdana Gapuraprima Tbk (GPRA) dikabarkan bakal diangkat menuju Rp200 dalam jangka pendek maupun menengah.Kabar berhembus adanya mitra strategis asal Prancis yang akan menggandeng perseroan menjadi momentum kenaikan harga saham perseroan. Rencana pengembang properti itu menggelar rights issue juga bakal memicu penguatan harga GPRA.Sementara itu, perdagangan bursa kemarin saham GPRA ditutup naik Rp10 ke Rp138.

Harga saham PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) berpotensi menuju Rp2.700-2.800 dalam jangka pendek maupun menengah.Kabar yang berhembus CIC tertarik dengan rencana perseroan membeli tambang emas di Afrika. Selain itu, perseroan akan merealisasikan akuisisi perusahaan batubara di Kalimantan dalam waktu dekat. Akuisisi ini akan mendongkrak harga saham perseroan.Pada penutupan perdagangan bursa kemarin harga sham ANTM ditutup koreksi Rp50 ke Rp2.050.

Kemerosotan bursa-bursa global langsung berimbas ke lantai bursa Indonesia. Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan dan nilai tukar rupiah langsung terpuruk.Pada perdagangan Jumat (5/2/2010), IHSG dibuka langsung merosot 51,996 poin (2,01%) ke level 2.541,224. IHSG terus terpuruk dan dalam 5 menit awal perdagangannya terpangkas 57,738 poin (2,23%) ke level 2.535,482.Sementara nilai tukar rupiah dibuka langsung merosot ke level 9.400 per dolar AS, dibandingkan penutupan kemarin di level 9.335 per dolar AS.Bursa-bursa regional bergerak melemah mengikuti bursa Wall Street tadi malam menyusul kekhawatiran seputar masalah utang Eropa. Indeks Dow Jones bahkan sempat terpuruk di bawah level 10.000.Pada penutupan sesi I perdagangan Jumat, indeks Nikkei-225 tercatat merosot 293,33 poin (2,83% ke level 10.062,65. Indeks Hang Seng juga dibuka anjlok 589,67 poin (2,9%) ke level 19.751,97. Investor masih menanti rilisan data tenaga kerja AS hari ini (Payroll diprediksi +13K, unemployment 10.0%) dan pertemuan G7 besok.

Lanjutkan Penurunan Bunga Kredit
Mengikuti jejak bank sentral di sejumlah negara, BI kembali mempertahankan BI rate di level 6,5% untuk ketujuh kalinya dalam rapat dewan gubernur (RDG), kemarin. Inflasi Januari yang cukup tinggi, sebesar 0,84% (month on month/mom), tidak menggoyahkan bank sentral untuk menaikkan suku bunga.

LABA BERSIH 2009 MELONJAK 690%, PGN Siapkan Dana Akuisisi Rp 3,4 Triliun
PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (PGAS) menyiapkan dana Rp 3,4 triliun untuk mengakuisisi produsen gas nasional tahun ini. Dana tersebut berasal dari kas internal perusahaan.

Sumalindo Siapkan Rights Issue Rp 123,6 M
PT Sumalindo Lestari Jaya Tbk (SULI) berencana menerbitkan saham baru (rights issue) sebanyak 1,24 miliar unit senilai Rp 123,6 miliar. Perseroan akan meminta persetujuan para pemegang saham dalam rapat umum pemegang saham luar biasa (RUPSLB) pada 9 Maret 2010.

Permintaan Saham IPO PP Berlebih hingga 2,8 Kali
Minat investor terhadap IPO PP cukup tinggi. Total angka permintaan mencapai 2,91 miliar saham atau setara Rp 1,63 triliun.

Capex Rp 300 M, MAPI Buka 2 Gerai Baru
MAPI akan membuka dua gerai department store baru serta menambah gerai Starbucks, Burger King, dan Pizza Marzzano.

Harga Komoditas Angkat Bisnis Alat Berat HEXA
Pada periode April 2009 hingga Maret 2010, HEXA mematok target penjualan alat berat sebanyak 1.400 unit.

Doping Baru Buat Emiten Rokok dan Farmasi
Rivisi aturan mengenai biaya promosi dan penjualan yang bisa dikurangkan dari penghasilan bruto bakal berdampak positif buat rokok dan farmasi.

CIMB: IHSG Hari Ini Berpotensi Koreksi
PT CIMB Securities Indonesia menghitung, IHSG hari ini sepertinya berpotensi terkoreksi kurang lebih 2% atu ke level 2.541 dan mencoba rebound dari level ini.

Menteri BUMN Ikut Road Show IPO Garuda Ke Singapura
Mustafa Abubakar menyukseskan rencana IPO PT Garuda Indonesia Airlines. Hal ini terbukti dengan keikutsertaan menteri dalam road show Garuda di Singapura.

Potensi kenaikan harga komoditas pada tahun ini turut mendorong optimisme perusahaan alat berat. PT Hexindo Adiperkasa Tbk (HEXA), misalnya, dalam periode April 2009 hingga Maret 2010, mematok target penjualan alat berat 1.400 unit. Setahun berikutnya, yakni di akhir Maret 2011, HEXA memproyeksikan, penjualan alat berat naik 15%-20% dari Maret 2010. Catatan saja, HEXA memang memakai tahun buku April-Maret.

Economic: Investasi Langsung US$34 M dalam 5 Tahun
Pemerintah menargetkan realisasi nilai penanaman modal langsung pada 5 tahun mendatang dapat menembus US$34,4 M dengan berbagai strategi yang diharapkan dapat meningkatkan daya tarik investasi. Total investasi langsung akan berasal dari penanaman modal asing (PMA) hingga US$26,1 M dan penanaman modal dalam negeri (PMDN) Rp78 T (setara US$8,2 M). Buku Rencana Pembangunan Jangka Menengah Nasional (RPJMN) 2010-2014 menyebutkan nilai investasi itu diproyeksikan dapat tercapai pada 2014.

Economic: Kepercayaan Konsumen Turun
Indeks kepercayaan konsumen (IKK) pada Januari 2010 kembali melemah 2,6% menjadi 86,8 setelah meningkat pada dua survei sebelumnya. Hal itu terungkap dalam hasil survei Danareksa Reseacrh Institute atas IKK pada Januari 2010. Kepala Ekonom Danareksa Research Institute mengatakan penurunan indeks tersebut merupakan level terendah dalam 9 bulan terakhir.

Economic: BI Rate Tetap 6,5%
Sesuai prediksi, BI kembali mempertahankan suku bunga acuan (BI Rate) di level 6,5%. Ini merupakan kali keenam Rapat Dewan Gubernur (RDG) BI menahan BI Rate. Level tersebut dinilai masih aman untuk menjaga target inflasi tahun 2010 di level 5% plus minus 1% serta kondusif bagi upaya pemulihan ekonomi.

Economic: 62 AB Akan Diaudit BEI Mulai 8 Februari
Bursa Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) siap mengaudit 62 Anggota Bursa (AB) yang masuk dalam daftar transaksi marjin mulai 8 Februari hingga akhir April 2010. Direktur Perdagangan dan Peraturan Anggota Bursa Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) Wan Wei Yiong menyatakan dalam peraturan V.D.6 dinyatakan AB yang masuk daftar transksi marjin wajib diaudit oleh BEI dalam periode satu tahun. Audit mulai dijalankan pada 8 Februari hingga Akhir April 2010. Laporan hasil audit diharapkan dapat tuntas dan tersusun rapi pada Juni 2010.

Banking: Aset Perbankan Tembus 2,5 Kuadriliun
Aset industri perbankan pada akhir tahun lalu mencapai Rp2,5 kuadriliun atau bertambah Rp224 dari akhir 2008. Bila dibandingkan dengan posisi akhir 2000 aset ini tumbuh lebih dari dua kali lipat. Berdasarkan data BI, dalam 9 tahun terakhir rata-rata aset bank tumbuh 6,6% atau sekitar Rp167,1 T per tahun. Pada 2000 nilai aset baru mencapai Rp1.030,5 T. Adapun dana pihak ketiga (DPK) hingga akhir 2009 tercatat sebesar Rp1.973 T atau naik 12,5% (Rp220 T) jika dibandingkan dengan periode sebelumnya sebesar Rp1.753 T.

MEDC: Medco Siap Refinancing Obligasi US$ 88,20 Juta
PT Medco Energi International Tbk (MEDC) siap refinancing obligasi senilai US$ 88,20 juta yang jatuh tempo pada 22 Mei 2010. Perseroan meraih dana US$ 50 juta dari penerbitan MTN pada 2 Februari 2010 untuk melunasi obligasi dolar tersebut.

ELTY: 2010, Bakrieland Incar Pertumbuhan 30%
ELTY memproyeksikan pertumbuhan sekitar 20-30% pada 2010. Direktur Utama dan Chief Executive Officer (CEO) Bakrieland Development Hiramsyah S Thaib menyatakan kontribusi dari jalan tol sekitar Rp 150-200 miliar. Potensi pertumbuhan hingga 30% tersebut untuk pendapatan maupun laba.

TRUB: Truba Raih Kontrak US$ 98,88 Juta
PT Truba Jaya Engineering, anak usaha PT Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering Tbk memenangkan kontrak jasa konstruksi yang diadakan oleh PT Chevron Pacific senilai US$ 98,88 juta. Hingga September 2009, perseroan telah mengantongi pendapatan sebesar Rp 2,07 triliun, tetap dibandingkan dengan periode yang sama 2008.

MAPI: Lunasi Utang Valas
MAPI telah melunasi utang valasnya ke 13 perbankan asing dan lokal pada Desember 2009. Total utang yang dilunasi perusahaan pemilik jaringan ritel premium ini mencapai US$15,5 juta dan Y3,477 miliar.

HEXA: Patok target penjualan alat berat 1.400 unit FY10 dan naik 20-30% FY11
HEXA dalam periode April 2009 hingga Maret 2010, mematok target penjualan alat berat 1.400 unit. Setahun berikutnya, yakni di akhir Maret 2011, HEXA memproyeksikan, penjualan alat berat naik 15%-20% dari Maret 2010. Catatan saja, HEXA memang memakai tahun buku April-Maret.

PGAS: Bangun Terminal LNG Sumut Rp2 Triliun
PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) Tbk memperkirakan investasi pembangunan terminal terapung gas alam cair di Sumatera Utarasekita Rp2 triliun. Sebanyak 30% atau sekitar Rp600 miliar berasal dari kas perusahaan dan Rp1,4 triliun dari pinjaman perbankan.

ASII: TA Finance Raih Pinjaman Rp3 T
PT Toyota Astra Financial Services (TA Finance) memperoleh plafon dana sedikitnya Rp3 T dari sejumlah bank asing guna meraih target pembiayaan baru yang dipatok mencapai Rp5,3 T tahun ini. Beberapa bank yang memberikan pinjaman tersebut seluruhnya dari asing di antaranya Mizuho Financial Group Inc, sebuah induk bank yang berbasis di Tokyo, Jepang, BOTM, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation dan Citibank.

Keputusan pemerintah untuk mengusulkan penunda pelaksanaa Single Present Policy (SPP) bank-bank BUMN disambut baik pengusaha perbankan BUMN. Penundaan tersebut dinilai tepat dengan kondisi yang ada saat ini.

Sumber: INilah.com, Detikfinance.com (market flash), kontan, investordaily
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