1008 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD drops some 30 ticks to a fresh 10-month low at 1.3342 after Fitch downgrades Portugal to AA- with a negative outlook.
1003 GMT [Dow Jones] Unless the EU closes ranks on Greece over the next two days the danger is the floodgates will open and the liquidation of long euro holdings escalates, says Lloyds Banking Group. The euro's weakness is also putting other central banks in an awkward position, with the SNB virtually powerless to arrest the fall in EUR/CHF. That cross currently trades at 1.4287, while EUR/USD is at 1.3374
PT Bank BCA (BBCA) Net Profit 2009 Rp 6.8 triliun vs Rp 5.8 triliun.
0932 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia shares end +2.0% at fresh 2009 high of 2774.850 in moderate volume, tracking gains in most Asian markets, traders say. "Expectations of benign inflation for March and continued gains in global equities markets spurred buying," says trader at First Asia Capital; expects shares to continue to gain tomorrow; tips resistance at 2800. Analysts say benign inflation for March could inspire central bank to keep key interest rate at 6.5% next month. Foreigners net buyers of IDR299 billion worth of shares. Among gainers: Bank Rakyat (BBRI.JK) ends up 3.1% at IDR8,250, Bank Mandiri (BMRI.JK) up 4.9% at IDR5,450, while car maker Astra (ASII.JK) up 2.5% at IDR41,850 on hopes lower interest rate environment to boost earnings.
0844 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/IDR turns slightly lower in afternoon session to 9,120 vs 9,135 early, 9,125 later yesterday as market participants trade the ranges amid lack of fresh direction, dealers say. A local dealer tips pair in narrow 9,115-9,135 range Thursday. "People sold the dollar back after it failed to sustain gains beyond IDR9,135."(i-made.sentana@dowjones.com)
0908 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesian government's bond prices slightly higher, especially long tenors, as investors whose bids rejected in government bond auction yesterday buy bonds in secondary market, dealers say; government Tuesday accepted only IDR7.5 trillion of IDR17 trillion in total bid. "I still expect the yields to fall further as foreign fund inflows are likely to continue," says Trimegah's bond analyst Ariawan; yield of 15-year FR40 down at 9.75% vs 9.80% yesterday; 18-year FR47 down at 10.22% vs 10.28% and 20-year FR54 down at 10.35% vs 10.40. (I-Made.Sentana@dowjones.com)
0827 GMT [Dow Jones] GBP/USD's resilience around the 1.50 mark may be seriously tested if today's UK budget produces only mild cuts or projections on growth and public finance raises new worries says UniCredit. Now at 1.5002; the bank says a break below 1.4950 opens downside risks toward the recent low of 1.4870. (gary.stride@dowjones.com)
0853 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD has breached pivotal support at 1.3405, the trigger point for another leg lower that has targets of 1.3030 and 1.2930 says Commerzbank's Karen Jones. EUR/USD now at 1.3384. (gary.stride@dowjones.com)
0925 GMT [Dow Jones] Talk of an joint IMF/euro-zone bailout for Greece fails to help the EUR and leaves the USD higher across the board. Strong IFO and PMI data from the euro zone also fails to stop the EUR from sinking and staying under $1.34, hitting a new 10-month low at $1.3354 as the market now waits for the EU summit starting Thursday. The JPY gets limited gains from new that Japanese exports rose sharply again last month even though they point to improved Japanese growth. The USD is up at Y91.14 while the EUR tumbles to $1.3372. The GBP fell to $1.4965 as the market waits for the latest budget. (nick.hastings@dowjones.com)
0449 GMT [Dow Jones] Nikkei up 0.2% at 10,796.84 after briefly dipping into negative territory; futures selling dragging down cash market on weak EUR/JPY as EU summit starting tomorrow isn't expected to produce any financial aid package on Greece, say market observers. "Worries over Greek debt problems are still affecting investor sentiment," Japanese brokerage manager says. Nikkei may hover around 10,800 for the rest of the day, he adds. Mazda Motor (7261.TO), which has relatively high exposure in euro zone, down 1.2% at Y240 vs morning close of Y242; Sony (6758.TO) down 2.3% at Y3,560 vs Y3,590. Other exporters faring well on slightly higher USD/JPY (now 90.53); Toyota (7203.TO) up 1.1% at Y3,700, Advantest (6857.TO) up 0.8% at Y2,192. Nintendo (7974.OK) up 7.8% at Y30,150, off midday close of Y30,450.
0452 GMT [Dow Jones] HSI +0.4% at 21,080.21 midday, bolstered by U.S. stock gains but index again off high (21,205.50) due to lack of follow-through buying. Broker at Emperor Securities notes very narrow (less than 1,000-point) HSI range so far in March, suspects "breakthrough may be due soon," likely ahead of March futures' expiry next week; while he's not certain about market's direction, believes "more likely" move to upside, given strength in U.S. stocks, sound HK corporate earnings. Best blue-chip gainer BOC HK (2388.HK), +2.7% at HK$18.82 on better-than-expected FY09 results; Li & Fung (0494.HK) down 0.4% at HK$41.90, succumbing to profit-taking ahead of FY09 results later today. Market volume light at HK$29.21 billion. (robert.li@dowjones.com)
0441 GMT [Dow Jones] Singapore blue chips, large-cap stocks surrender early gains as investors lock in profits, although interest in small-cap shares remains keen as players zoom in on laggards. STI down 0.3% at 2897.98 midday vs morning high of 2917.93 (+0.4%); support at this week's low of 2889, while any rebound expected to meet resistance at last week's 2-month high of 2932. Market breadth flat vs almost 3 gainers for every decliner in early trade. Volume tad higher than recent average at 1.0 billion shares. "Small caps could outperform in the near term, playing catch-up (with) the STI's recent rebound," says DBS Vickers; "a switch in interest from blue chips to small and penny stocks also hints of the current technical rebound entering a more mature stage. This is in-line with our technical view that while STI may hold on to recent gains in the near term, do not expect substantial upside above the recent high of 2932." FTSE ST Mid Cap Index +0.3%, FTSE ST Small Cap Index +0.2%. Among STI components, Noble Group (N21.SG) top percentage decliner, off 3.0% at S$3.21, following block sale of shares by company's vice chairman at 6.3% discount to last closing price. (frankie.ho@dowjones.com)
0430 GMT [Dow Jones] Kospi +0.1% at 1683.72 in light volume on foreign buying, but off early high of 1695.03 on profit-taking by local retail investors, funds; banks weak, but techs stay firm on earnings hopes, says Won Jong-hyuck at SK Securities. Adds, the "key to determining the Kospi's direction is (local firms') earnings, and investors also want further confirmation on the outlook for the U.S. economy and earnings." Notes waning upward energy, with more decliners than advancers in local stock market even as Kospi rising, "which is a normally a signal that the market may face an inflection point within two to three weeks." Expects Kospi to trade in tight band until early April when pre-earnings season begins; likely to stay near current level today. Samsung Electronics (005930.SE) +1.4% at KRW820,000, Hynix (000660.SE) +1.6% at KRW25,350. But KB Financial (105560.SE) down 1.5% at KRW51,600, Woori Finance (053000.SE) down 2.2% at KRW15,450 on profit-taking. Hyundai Motor (005380.SE) off 0.9% at KRW116,500 after recent rise. (soo-kyung.seo@dowjones.com)
0341 GMT [Dow Jones] China shares slightly up midday boosted by some buying interest in banks following Bank of China's (601988.SH) better-than-expected 2009 earnings, "it's difficult to predict how long the interest in banks will last, as turnover remain modest at CNY54.9 billion and gains are somewhat subdued," says Southwest Securities analyst Zhang Gang. Shanghai Composite +0.2% at 3059.14, tipped to trade in 3030-3080 range today. Bank of China +1.5% at CNY4.21, ICBC (601398.SH) +0.4% at CNY4.87. Shenzhen Index +0.3% at 1185.64. (michelle.ng@dowjones.com)
0533 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD falls to more-than 10-month low at 1.3403, after automated stop-loss selling orders tripped at 1.3450, says senior FX dealer at major Japanese bank. Says while market chatter of option-related protective buying likely to support EUR/USD at 1.3400 for now, any breaches of that level could open way to further falls. EUR/USD last at 1.3416. EUR/JPY also lower, tips support for cross at 121.00 vs last 121.55. (andrew.monahan@dowjones.com)
0422 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR weakness dragging AUD off its earlier highs, says Sean Callow, senior currency strategist with Westpac, expecting single-currency's weakness and USD's upward momentum could continue to weigh on AUD, reflecting move toward safer-haven currencies. "EUR/USD is the biggest cross and it just looks like it's having a cross over affect on the Aussie," says Callow. "The market is still long Aussie generally, but we are lacking something real fresh to push it up through resistance around US$0.9225." AUD/USD recently at 0.9173, down from today's high of 0.9196. (geoffrey.rogow@dowjones.com)
0421 GMT [Dow Jones] EUR/USD likely supported above 1.3400 (last at 1.3455) into New York trade by buying related to option with strike price there, but further falls possible after that, says senior FX dealer at major European bank. "After the option expires in New York later today the protection buying above 1.3400 will be gone, which will leave the euro exposed to falls below that line." While some short-covering could buoy unit until then, says any rises likely capped at 1.3550, as investors hesitate to buy aggressively before European Union leaders' summit starting Thursday, which they don't expect to yield financial aid package for Greece. (andrew.monahan@dowjones.com)
0345 GMT [Dow Jones] Implied volatility on 1-month ATM EUR/USD options up slightly at 10.10%/10.50% vs 10.05%/10.45% in NY overnight, as spot pair hits three-week low of 1.3445. No major deals so far, but dealers note recent moves among speculators to buy "one-touch" EUR/USD exotic options (which pay holders lump sum if EUR hits strike levels by pre-set dates). In NY, some speculators bought one-touch options with strikes between $1.1500-$1.2000, expiry dates of one month-six months forward, one dealer says; this "tells you that people are looking for the downside" for EUR. 1-month USD/JPY implied volatility tad down at 9.65%/10.35% vs 9.75%/10.45%; some hedge funds purchased 2-year ATM options earlier in day, but amounts, price levels unknown, dealers say. (takashi.nakamichi@dowjones.com )
0321 GMT [Dow Jones] NZD/USD trading lower after market surprised by bigger than expected NZ current account deficit; eyes now on NZ GDP data tomorrow, says HIFX director of trading Mike Hollows. "Today's [data] was the first of three important numbers but tomorrow's is the biggest." NZD/USD last 0.7049 vs 0.7064 early. On macro scale, Greece debt issues, proposed EU bailout continue to occupy market, says Hollows; "it is taking too long to sort out. EUR/USD is struggling and when the EUR/USD struggles, the USD appreciates and things like the Kiwi get dragged down a little bit by virtue of a contagion." Adds overnight UK to announce budget, German business confidence survey numbers due, U.S. durable goods expected; "there are bits and pieces there that could get the market moving." (lucy.craymer@dowjones.com)
0325 GMT [Dow Jones] Crude oil prices may still break through $83/bbl, says Jonathan Barratt of Commodity Broking Services in Sydney; "oil is favoring a break to the top side." Adds optimism over U.S. economy favors improving supply-demand fundamentals for crude. Although U.S. crude inventories rising, impact on prices remains limited. "If we have such an overhang (of supply) in the market, why are we near the highs? If you have more supply, then the price should go down." May Nymex crude last down 58 cents at $81.33/bbl on Globex. (wayne.ma@dowjones.com)
0521 GMT [Dow Jones] Base metals consolidating last year's "impressive" gains, says National Australia Bank in monthly update. LME copper, other base metals move in fairly small trading ranges over past couple of weeks, investors cautious as E.U. debt concerns persist. China stimulus rollback also seen to potentially impact metal demand. "Nevertheless, we continue to regard the decision of authorities to reduce the magnitude of stimulus as a positive signal for medium-to-long-term growth prospects," says NAB; expects very measured upward CNY revaluation over the next year, will support Chinese demand for U.S.-dollar denominated commodities on world markets. LME 3-month copper trading at $7,433/ton, down $2 vs PM kerb. (elisabeth.behrmann@dowjones.com)
Dollar Index to Extend Gain on Golden Cross: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar may extend gains against other major currencies should two technical indicators converge, Royal Bank of Canada said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=afby8c9EXC2o
Gold Declines as Rate Outlook, Stronger Dollar Erode Demand
(Bloomberg) -- Gold declined as the prospect of higher interest rates and a stronger dollar sapped investor demand for the precious metal.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aLJiYzUE0VeQ
Euro May Drop to $1.25 as Greece Woes Persist, Nordvig Says
(Bloomberg) -- The euro may fall as low as $1.25 by year-end as Greece’s fiscal crisis drives investors from the region, said Nomura Holdings Inc.’s Jens Nordvig.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aOE1pkL.EiYs
Wednesday Look Ahead: Wall Street's Stealth Rally Making Strides
Stocks Tuesday broke out of their slow drift, as the Dow had its best day since March 5, gaining 103 points to 10,888. The S&P 500 was up 8 to 1174, its highest close since Sept. 26, 2008. For the month, the S&P is up 6.3 percent, and the Dow has gained 5.5 percent.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36010746
No Signs of Double-Dip—So Invest Here: BlackRock's Doll
The Dow rose on Tuesday, continuing a winning streak in the last nine out of 10 trading days. How should investors be positioned and where are the best sectors to invest? Bob Doll, vice chairman and chief equity strategist at BlackRock, shared his insights.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35998672
Wednesday, March 24, 2010
Tuesday, March 23, 2010
BHIT/CNKO/PLAS: Get Ready For Some Breakouts???
23/02: BHIT (780).Trend masih bullish jangka pendek, koreksi penurunan dalam bull flag, seharusnya memberikan peluang Buy on weakness (lingkaran besar & run away gap di kisaran 690-750: cicil beli) target 1.000-1.050 (panjang flag) jika tembus garis segitiga dalam chart. BHIT saat ini berada dalam correction wave iv/3 untuk target 61.8% wave iv = kisaran Rp 950-1000 (final 3). Resiko (Stop loss) berada di kotak bergaris (kisaran 620-560).
23/03 PLAS (1.060) Trend masih bullish, terutama melihat hitungan Elliott wave (iii/3 dalam impulse 3) , koreksi penurunan saat ini merupakan peluang untuk akumulasi beli (lingkaran I di 1.010 & 1.060: cicil beli) untuk target breakout double top (1.120) & flag & lingkaran II (dalam segitiga kerucut) untuk buy breakout 1.130 target 1.180/1.320 bahkan 1.540 (triple top daily: buy breakout 1.550/1.560 target 1.750). Resiko saat ini di 930/990.
23/03 CNKO (79) CNKO kembali menunjukkan pola bull flag yang kedua, buy di area lingkaran (cicil beli 76-80) untuk breakout segitiga kerucut target 97 (buy breakout 98/99 target 150). Risk < reward = resiko berada di 67-62. Saat ini CNKO membentuk pola koreksi minuette ii/3 impulse.
23/03 PLAS (1.060) Trend masih bullish, terutama melihat hitungan Elliott wave (iii/3 dalam impulse 3) , koreksi penurunan saat ini merupakan peluang untuk akumulasi beli (lingkaran I di 1.010 & 1.060: cicil beli) untuk target breakout double top (1.120) & flag & lingkaran II (dalam segitiga kerucut) untuk buy breakout 1.130 target 1.180/1.320 bahkan 1.540 (triple top daily: buy breakout 1.550/1.560 target 1.750). Resiko saat ini di 930/990.
23/03 CNKO (79) CNKO kembali menunjukkan pola bull flag yang kedua, buy di area lingkaran (cicil beli 76-80) untuk breakout segitiga kerucut target 97 (buy breakout 98/99 target 150). Risk < reward = resiko berada di 67-62. Saat ini CNKO membentuk pola koreksi minuette ii/3 impulse.
PT Universal Broker Indonesia Securities Daily Newsletter Vol 410
Equity Strategist Selasa, 23Maret 2010. Vol 410 Powered by Strategydesk
Daily Report
Market Review
Reaksi dari sentiment negative yang melanda indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street di awal pekan ini, berkat dampak kenaikan suku bunga India sebesar 25 bsp pada akhir pekan, penurunan harga komoditas global (dipimpin minyak terkoreksi ke $ 79/barel), laporan paket jaminan kesehatan Presiden AS Barack Obama berhasil disetujui Kongress di tengah ketidakpastian berakhirnya krisis financial di Yunani setelah gagal mendapatkan bantuan sepenuhnya dari Uni Eropa, ikut berperan menekan IHSG yang menembus level 2.700 kemarin. Kondisi tersebut diperburuk oleh laporan Direktur Keuangan PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) dinyatakan tersangka oleh Dirjen Pajak, menyebabkan penurunan harga saham grup bakrie yang memberikan kontribusi terbesar kepada penurunan IHSG kemarin. Saham di sektor tamang, perkebunan dan infrastruktur mempimpin pelemahan IHSG. Rupiah ikut tertekan ke Rp 9.125 terhadap dolar. IHSG anjlok 40,573poin(-1,47%), di 2.702,401,transaksi sebesar Rp 3,687triliun. Investor kembali mencetak net sell sebesar Rp 355.546 miliar, dibandingkan net buy sebesar Rp 134,086 miliar (19/03), sehingga total net sell pekan ini menjadi Rp 355,546 miliar.
Mayoritas indeks saham di regional Asia mengalami penurunan terbesa dalam 1 bulan berkat kekhawatiran bank sentral di regional akan meningkatkan usaha untuk mengatasi inflasi dan setelah pejabat IMF mengatakan ekonomi di regional akan sulit untuk mengatasi utang public. Indeks saham MSCI Asia Pasific di luar indeks Jepang terkoreksi 1,5% menjadi 415.27, penurunan terbesar sejak 19 Februari. Indeks Hang Seng HK terkoreksi 2,1% setelah China suspend penjualan sejumlah lahan. Kospi Korea terkoreksi 0,8%, indeks S&P/ASX 200 Sidney terkoreksi 0,9%, dan komposit Shanghai menguat 0,2%. Nikkei 225 Jepang libur kemarin.
IHSG Outlook
Potensi penurunan IHSG di akhir pekan ini relatif terbatas, karena investor lokal maupun investor asing telah mengantisipasi dampak dari terkoreksinya saham Wall Street di akhir pekan lalu dari kekhawatiran kenaikan suku bunga di sejumlah Negara di regional Asia (setelah India menaikkan suku bunga 25 bsp, Jumat lalu) dan paket jaminan kesehatan milik Presiden AS Barack Obama yang akhirnya disetujui oleh Kongress AS kemarin menurut analis di AS negative untuk saham Wall Street, berhasil diredam semalam, setelah indeks saham DJIA AS berhasil menguat diatas ekspektasi pasar setelah analis upgrade harga saham Citigroup Corp AS dan kenaikan harga saham farmasi di AS. Momentum positif dari rilisan sejumlah laporan keuangan dan pembagian dividen di awal pekan ini (IGAR, BMRI, LPKR, TPIA, MERK), mendukung solidnya musim pendapatan per tahun 2009 dan fundamental ekonomi nasional yang diprediksi meningkat, serta kuatnya aliran dana masuk ke pasar modal karena pasar emerging termasuk Indonesia diyakini investor asing masih dapat memberikan yield (imbal hasil) yang lebih tinggi dari investasi di Negara maju setelah sejumlah bank sentral utama dunia (ECB, the Fed, BOJ) masih mempertahankan kebijakan suku bunga rendah dan stimulus global. Spekulasi sejumlah fund besar dari AS (Templeton dan Fidelity) akan melakukan investasi di Indonesia, masih memberikan support kepada IHSG, meski ada sentiment negative dari isu pajak anak usaha grup Bakrie di awal pekan ini.
Stock Picks:Average last 35week +148.783%. Target 0-30%+, Risk < -10%
Hold Buy : AGRO 130/BCIP 315/INDY 2.275/BWPT 710/BSDE 620/ASRI 142/ DGIK 86/UNSP 520/TINS 2.175/INCO 3.975. Buy : ANTM/ASII/BHIT/BMRI/ DGIK/DILD/DOID/BKSL/ITMG/INDF/TLKM/MNCN/UNVR. BOW: BUMI/ELTY
Stock Picks:
# BMRI: Outperform #IGAR : Hold
Global Outlook
Potensi kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street diperkirakan terbatas pada pekan ini, berkat kemenangan paket jaminan kesehatan Presiden AS Barack Obama di Kongress kemarin, menurunkan daya tarik untuk saham farmasi AS yang berimbas kepada indeks saham AS (S&P 500 & DJIA), kondisi teknikal harian yang overbought, ketidakpastian mengenai rencana bantuan kepada Yunani setelah Yunani dilaporkan mencari bantuan ke IMF setelah dalam pertemuan Uni Eropa terjadi perpecahan mengenai bentuk bantuan kepada Yunani, laporan kenaikan suku bunga India di akhir pekan sebesar 25 bsp dapat mendorong spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga China di bulan depan hingga IMF memperingkatkan beban hutang negara kaya, seharusnya membebani kinerja indeks saham global pekan ini. Meski indeks saham global masih mendapatkan support dari kebijakan suku bunga rendah oleh the Fed dan BOJ Jepang (suntik ke pasar kredit $ 222 miliar di pekan lalu), laporan EPFR global bahwa stock fund di pasar emerging mendapatkan net inflow $ 730 juta di pekan lalu (Asia diluar Jepang) stimulus global masih dipertahankan dan sejumlah data ekonomi global pekan ini (Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, Durable Goods, Jobless Claims, revisi GDP Q4, U Michigan sentiment), IFO Jerman, PMI Euro, SNB & BOE Bulletin), testimony Fed Bernanke (Kamis) hingga kenaikan harga komoditi.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola long opening black marubozu (momentum penurunan menguat), berada di atas channel support di 2.639dan masih berada dalam uptrend channel, ditutup di bawah 2.726 (5-day MA), seharusnya membatasi potensi rebound. Kondisi tersebut didukung ADX terkoreksi (momentum kenaikan melemah), stochastic crossdown dan overbought, MACD bullish, menunjukkan potensi kenaikan kian terbatas. Hitungan EW: tercapainya high 2.779 menunjukkan pola koreksi v/4 dalam 5 minor untuk target ke support 2.686/2.650. Support di 2.680/2.650. Analisa W.Gann menunjukkan target 3.150 di Q2/Q3 2010, jika ditutup diatas 2.735 (FR 161.8%) di bulan ini. (+20p+45p+73p). Hold Sell 2.773-2.800 telah tercapai: hasil + 73 poin. Buy 2.685 target 2.800 stop 2.645.
Resistance: 2788.82/2771.63/2758.30/2725.49. PP 2714.57
Support : 2687.87/2671.58/2655.25/2642.92
Gallery Saham Mania: globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Daily Report
Market Review
Reaksi dari sentiment negative yang melanda indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street di awal pekan ini, berkat dampak kenaikan suku bunga India sebesar 25 bsp pada akhir pekan, penurunan harga komoditas global (dipimpin minyak terkoreksi ke $ 79/barel), laporan paket jaminan kesehatan Presiden AS Barack Obama berhasil disetujui Kongress di tengah ketidakpastian berakhirnya krisis financial di Yunani setelah gagal mendapatkan bantuan sepenuhnya dari Uni Eropa, ikut berperan menekan IHSG yang menembus level 2.700 kemarin. Kondisi tersebut diperburuk oleh laporan Direktur Keuangan PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) dinyatakan tersangka oleh Dirjen Pajak, menyebabkan penurunan harga saham grup bakrie yang memberikan kontribusi terbesar kepada penurunan IHSG kemarin. Saham di sektor tamang, perkebunan dan infrastruktur mempimpin pelemahan IHSG. Rupiah ikut tertekan ke Rp 9.125 terhadap dolar. IHSG anjlok 40,573poin(-1,47%), di 2.702,401,transaksi sebesar Rp 3,687triliun. Investor kembali mencetak net sell sebesar Rp 355.546 miliar, dibandingkan net buy sebesar Rp 134,086 miliar (19/03), sehingga total net sell pekan ini menjadi Rp 355,546 miliar.
Mayoritas indeks saham di regional Asia mengalami penurunan terbesa dalam 1 bulan berkat kekhawatiran bank sentral di regional akan meningkatkan usaha untuk mengatasi inflasi dan setelah pejabat IMF mengatakan ekonomi di regional akan sulit untuk mengatasi utang public. Indeks saham MSCI Asia Pasific di luar indeks Jepang terkoreksi 1,5% menjadi 415.27, penurunan terbesar sejak 19 Februari. Indeks Hang Seng HK terkoreksi 2,1% setelah China suspend penjualan sejumlah lahan. Kospi Korea terkoreksi 0,8%, indeks S&P/ASX 200 Sidney terkoreksi 0,9%, dan komposit Shanghai menguat 0,2%. Nikkei 225 Jepang libur kemarin.
IHSG Outlook
Potensi penurunan IHSG di akhir pekan ini relatif terbatas, karena investor lokal maupun investor asing telah mengantisipasi dampak dari terkoreksinya saham Wall Street di akhir pekan lalu dari kekhawatiran kenaikan suku bunga di sejumlah Negara di regional Asia (setelah India menaikkan suku bunga 25 bsp, Jumat lalu) dan paket jaminan kesehatan milik Presiden AS Barack Obama yang akhirnya disetujui oleh Kongress AS kemarin menurut analis di AS negative untuk saham Wall Street, berhasil diredam semalam, setelah indeks saham DJIA AS berhasil menguat diatas ekspektasi pasar setelah analis upgrade harga saham Citigroup Corp AS dan kenaikan harga saham farmasi di AS. Momentum positif dari rilisan sejumlah laporan keuangan dan pembagian dividen di awal pekan ini (IGAR, BMRI, LPKR, TPIA, MERK), mendukung solidnya musim pendapatan per tahun 2009 dan fundamental ekonomi nasional yang diprediksi meningkat, serta kuatnya aliran dana masuk ke pasar modal karena pasar emerging termasuk Indonesia diyakini investor asing masih dapat memberikan yield (imbal hasil) yang lebih tinggi dari investasi di Negara maju setelah sejumlah bank sentral utama dunia (ECB, the Fed, BOJ) masih mempertahankan kebijakan suku bunga rendah dan stimulus global. Spekulasi sejumlah fund besar dari AS (Templeton dan Fidelity) akan melakukan investasi di Indonesia, masih memberikan support kepada IHSG, meski ada sentiment negative dari isu pajak anak usaha grup Bakrie di awal pekan ini.
Stock Picks:Average last 35week +148.783%. Target 0-30%+, Risk < -10%
Hold Buy : AGRO 130/BCIP 315/INDY 2.275/BWPT 710/BSDE 620/ASRI 142/ DGIK 86/UNSP 520/TINS 2.175/INCO 3.975. Buy : ANTM/ASII/BHIT/BMRI/ DGIK/DILD/DOID/BKSL/ITMG/INDF/TLKM/MNCN/UNVR. BOW: BUMI/ELTY
Stock Picks:
# BMRI: Outperform #IGAR : Hold
Global Outlook
Potensi kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia dan Wall Street diperkirakan terbatas pada pekan ini, berkat kemenangan paket jaminan kesehatan Presiden AS Barack Obama di Kongress kemarin, menurunkan daya tarik untuk saham farmasi AS yang berimbas kepada indeks saham AS (S&P 500 & DJIA), kondisi teknikal harian yang overbought, ketidakpastian mengenai rencana bantuan kepada Yunani setelah Yunani dilaporkan mencari bantuan ke IMF setelah dalam pertemuan Uni Eropa terjadi perpecahan mengenai bentuk bantuan kepada Yunani, laporan kenaikan suku bunga India di akhir pekan sebesar 25 bsp dapat mendorong spekulasi kenaikan suku bunga China di bulan depan hingga IMF memperingkatkan beban hutang negara kaya, seharusnya membebani kinerja indeks saham global pekan ini. Meski indeks saham global masih mendapatkan support dari kebijakan suku bunga rendah oleh the Fed dan BOJ Jepang (suntik ke pasar kredit $ 222 miliar di pekan lalu), laporan EPFR global bahwa stock fund di pasar emerging mendapatkan net inflow $ 730 juta di pekan lalu (Asia diluar Jepang) stimulus global masih dipertahankan dan sejumlah data ekonomi global pekan ini (Existing Home Sales, New Home Sales, Durable Goods, Jobless Claims, revisi GDP Q4, U Michigan sentiment), IFO Jerman, PMI Euro, SNB & BOE Bulletin), testimony Fed Bernanke (Kamis) hingga kenaikan harga komoditi.
Technical Analysis:
IHSG menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola long opening black marubozu (momentum penurunan menguat), berada di atas channel support di 2.639dan masih berada dalam uptrend channel, ditutup di bawah 2.726 (5-day MA), seharusnya membatasi potensi rebound. Kondisi tersebut didukung ADX terkoreksi (momentum kenaikan melemah), stochastic crossdown dan overbought, MACD bullish, menunjukkan potensi kenaikan kian terbatas. Hitungan EW: tercapainya high 2.779 menunjukkan pola koreksi v/4 dalam 5 minor untuk target ke support 2.686/2.650. Support di 2.680/2.650. Analisa W.Gann menunjukkan target 3.150 di Q2/Q3 2010, jika ditutup diatas 2.735 (FR 161.8%) di bulan ini. (+20p+45p+73p). Hold Sell 2.773-2.800 telah tercapai: hasil + 73 poin. Buy 2.685 target 2.800 stop 2.645.
Resistance: 2788.82/2771.63/2758.30/2725.49. PP 2714.57
Support : 2687.87/2671.58/2655.25/2642.92
Gallery Saham Mania: globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Saham Indonesia 23-03
Research JP Morgan Sec: Overweight INTP target Rp 15.800
Research Kim Eng Sec: Buy SOBI target Rp 1.830
Pemodal perlu mencermati pergerakan saham PT Polychem Indonesia Tbk (ADMG) karena potensi penguatannya diproyeksikan hingga Rp180-an. Pemilik saham terbesar perseroan, PT Gajah Tunggal Tbk dikabarkan mau menjual seluruh sahamnya dan tengah menggelar beauty contest bagi pembeli.
Institusi asing asal Jepang diisukan akan meningkatkan kepemilikan saham PT Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (Latinusa (NIKL) dan mendapatkan wakilnya di jajaran manajemen perseroan. Selain itu, penambahan kapasitas produksi juga akan memberikan sentimen positif kepada sahamnya.
PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF) berhasil mencetak lonjakan laba yang cukup fantastis hingga 100% selama tahun 2009. Lonjakan laba itu diperoleh karena turunnya beban usaha di tengah penjualan bersih yang mengalami penurunan. Menurut laporan keuangan Indofood yang dipublikasikan Selasa (23/3/2010), Indofood selama tahun 2009 justru mencatat penjualan menjadi hanya Rp 37,140 triliun dibandingkan tahun 2008 yang sebesar Rp 38,799 triliun.
INVS Implementasi Kelola Data Dari Edison
PT Inovisi Infracom Tbk menerapkan sistem terintegrasi dan solusi pengelolaan data pelanggan dari Edison Mobility untuk menyederhanakan operasional dan menekan biaya.
GJTL Akan 'Stock Split'?
Di tengah anjloknya bursa, saham PT Gajah Tunggal (GJTL) kemarin melesat 20%. Ada rumor perseroan berencana melakukan stock split
PT BW Plantation Tbk (BWPT) membuka opsi untuk membagikan dividen kepada pemegang saham, setelah perseroan berhasil mencetak laba bersih sebesar Rp 167,5 miliar pada tahun 2009. Rencananya dividen yang diberikan minimal 10% dari perolehan laba, atau sekitar Rp 16,75 miliar.
Medco Raih Dana dari MTN US$ 50 Juta
PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) berhasil memperoleh dana sebesar US$ 50 juta atau sekitar Rp 457 miliar melalui penerbitan Medium Term Notes kedua (MTN II) pada 22 Maret 2010. Penerbitan instrumen utang ini merupakan bagian dari strategi perseroan dalam memenuhi kebutuhan pendanana pada 2010.
Bank Himpunan Saudara Catatkan Laba Turun 5,3%
PT Bank Himpunan Saudara Tbk (SDRA) mencatatkan pertumbuhan laba bersih turun 5,3% dari Rp37,657 miliar pada 2008 menjadi Rp35,645 miliar pada 2009.
Penguasa Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) kini sudah berganti. Nilai kapitalisasi pasar PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) telah melampaui PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM) yang selama bertahun-tahun merajai lantai bursa.Kemarin (22/3), harga saham berkode ASII ini meningkat 0,25% menjadi Rp 40.200 per saham. Otomatis, ini mendongkrak nilai kapitalisasi pasarnya menjadi Rp 162,74 triliun, atau setara 7,36% dari total kapitalisasi BEI yang mencapai Rp 2.211,1 triliun. Sebenarnya, harga saham ASII mencetak rekor tertinggi sepanjang sejarahnya pada Rabu (17/3) pekan lalu, sebesar Rp 40.850 per saham. Namun, posisi teratas baru direngkuhnya kemarin, setelah harga saham TLKM turun 2,42% menjadi Rp 8.050 per saham. Alhasil, nilai kapitalisasi pasar raksasa telekomunikasi ini tergerus menjadi Rp 162,29 triliun. Ini setara dengan 7,34% kapitalisasi pasar BEI. Sepanjang sejarah bursa saham di Indonesia, posisi TLKM tak pernah tergoyahkan kecuali oleh PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) di awal tahun 2008.
Dalam beberapa pekan terakhir, harga saham PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (DOID) terus tertekan. Pada 10 Maret lalu, harganya masih bertengger di level Rp 1.510 per saham. Namun, pada Jumat pekan lalu (19/3), harga saham DOID sudah tergerus 8,61% ke posisi Rp 1.380 per saham. Ternyata, ada rumor panas yang menyebabkan harga saham DOID tertekan. Kabarnya, Grup Sinarmas tengah menjual saham DOID yang merupakan jaminan pinjaman salah seorang petinggi Grup Bakrie.
Ekspansi PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk (INTP) terus berlanjut. Produsen semen Tiga Roda ini akan membangun Pembangkit Listri Tenaga Uap (PLTU) berkapasitas 2x50 Megawatt.
Sekretaris Perusahaan INTP, Dani Handayani, menyatakan, Indocement perlu membangun PLTU demi menghemat pemakaian energi. Maklum, sebesar 60% biaya produksi selama ini berasal dari pemakaian energi. Dari angka itu, sebesar 30% menggunakan mesin diesel.
Harga Batubara Bisa Terkoreksi ke US$ 92
Harga batubara melorot karena harga minyak dunia terperosok ke US$ 79,33 sebarel.
Saham Emiten BUMN Diharapkan Membaik
Menteri Negara BUMN Mustafa Abubakar menginstruksikan kepada direksi 16 emiten dan calon emiten milik pemerintah untuk memperbaiki kinerja perusahaan. Perbaikan secara fundamental diharapkan berdampak terhadap kenaikan harga saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI).
Abdi Bangsa Berniat Akuisisi Stasiun Radio
PT Abdi Bangsa Tbk (ABBA) menjajaki akuisisi sejumlah stasiun radio baru di Jakarta pada tahun ini. Perseroan masih bernegosiasi dengan beberapa pemilik stasiun tersebut.
Pemerintah Proses Rights Issue BNI
Kementerian BUMN mulai memproses penerbitan saham baru (rights issue) dan green shoe PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI) bersama Menteri Koordinator Perekonomian dan Menteri Keuangan. Pemerintah optimistis penerbitan surat berharga itu bisa dilaksanakan pada semester II- 2010.
BENTUK ANAK USAHA DI SEKTOR PROPERTI, Jasa Marga-PP Patungan Rp 100 Miliar
PT Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR) dan PT PP Tbk (PTPP) menyiapkan dana sedikitnya Rp 100 miliar untuk mendirikan anak usaha di sektor properti. Proyek patungan di antara dua perusahaan konstruksi pelat merah itu dijadwalkan terbentuk pada semester-II 2010.
Economic: Laju Inflasi akan Tahan Kenaikan Bunga
Laju inflasi yang dinilai masih terkendali, membuat Bank Indonesia belum merencanakan untuk menaikkan suku bunga, sebagaimana yang dilakukan oleh bank sentral di negara lain. Darmin Nasution, Pjs Gubernur BI mengatakan Indonesia belum perlu mengikuti kebijakan moneter negara lain seperti India, terkait dengan kenaikan suku bunga, karena laju inflasi dinilai belum mengkhawatirkan atau masih dalam kisaran proyeksi BI yakni sekitar 5%.
Economic: Dana Rp3 Triliun Terkait Century Diblokir
Pemerintah telah mengajukan blokir dana milik pelaku terkait kasus kejahatan Bank Century kepada otoritas di 12 negara tempat terparkirnya dana kontan dan saham bernilai sekitar Rp3 triliun. Angka itu merupakan hasil verifikasi atas perkiraan nilai total dana yang pernah disebutkan Kepala Bareskrim Polri, saat masih dijabat Komjen Susno Duadji yang menyebut angka Rp12 triliun hingga Rp14 triliun. dana kontan yang sudah diajukan pemblokiran itu, antara lain dana di USB (UBS) Hong Kong senilai US$19,25 juta, pada Standard Chartered Bank di Singapura senilai Sin$400.000, ENG bank di Jersey, AS senilai US$16,5 juta, Britihs Virgin Island, di Quatanamo, Kuba, US$14,8 juta, di Bermuda US$72 juta, di Swiss US$220.000, di Inggris US$872.000.
General: RPP Tembakau ancaman pekerja pabrik rokok
Jika Rancangan Pemerintah (RPP) Pengendalian Produk Tembakau disahkan menjadi peraturan pemerintah (PP), bisa berdampak pemutusan hubungan kerja (PHK) besar-besaran karyawan pabrik-pabrik rokok (PR) yang ada di Kab. Malang. Kepala Dinas Tenaga Kerja dan Transmigrasi Kab. Malang, mengatakan RPP tersebut jelas merugikan industri rokok di Kab. Malang. Saat ini, PR yang beroperasi di Kab. Malang tercatat sebanyak 194 PR dengan 35.000 tenaga kerja (TK).
Energy: Kenaikan TDL di bawah 900 VA tak lebih dari 15%
Pemerintah menjamin rencana penaikan TDL pada Juli 2010 bagi pelanggan berdaya kurang dari 900 VA tidak akan lebih dari 15% sehingga tidak memberatkan masyarakat berdaya beli terbatas.
Property: Pasar property komersial global membaik
Jones Lang LaSalle Global Capital memprediksi kenaikan transaksi properti komersial sepanjang 2010 dibandingkan dengan realisasi tahun lalu mencapai US$ 209 miliar. Volume transaksi properti komersial global sepanjang 2009 melorot 45% menjadi US$ 209 miliar, dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya. Penurunan ini lebih rendah dibandingkan 2008 yang anjlok hingga 50% dari kisaran periode 2007 sebesar US$759 miliar. Jones Lang LaSalle mencatat nilai transaksi properti di Eropa pengunung 2009 sekitar US$ 98 miliar atau turun sekitar 41% dibandingkan pencapaian 2008. Sedangkan volume transaksi di Asia Pacific tidak berkontraksi hebat akibat krisis keuangan global ini. Volume transaksi properti pasar Asia Pacific hanya 23% menjadi US$ 66 miliar, Amerika anjlok 64% menjadi US$ 46 miliar.
MEGA: Targetkan DPK Rp39,8 Triliun
PT Bank Mega Tbk (MEGA) menargetkan perolehan dana pihka ketiga (DPK) naik 21,3% menjadi Rp39,8 triliun pada 2010. Perseroan akan fokus menggenjot pertumbuhan tabungan dan giro untuk mendongkrak DPK ini. Dari proyeksi DPK tahun ini, Rp39,8 triliun, sebnayak 44,7% (Rp17,79 triliun) berupa deposito, 31,8% (Rp12,65 triliun) tabungan, dan 23,5% sisanya (Rp9,35 triliun) giro.
BRPT: Perbesar Saham di Gozco Plantations
PT Barito Pacific Tbk memperbesar kepemilikan sahamnya pada PT Gozco Plantations Tbk dari sebesar 10,01% menjadi 10,59% dengan total kepemilikan menjadi sebanyak 29,71 juta saham. Melalui keterbukaan informasi otoritas bursa hari ini, kepemilikan Barito Pacific pada Gozco bertambah 29,71 juta saham dari level sebelumnya sebanyak 500,5 juta saham yang ditunjukkan pada laporan kepemilikan saham pada awal Maret. Barito Pacific membeli saham Gozco di pasar pada kisaran Rp318,33 sejak 22 Januari hingga 10 Maret dengan tujuan investasi.
AALI: Penjualan CPO Naik 2,7% pada 2M10
Selama Januari-Februari 2010, PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) mencatatkan kenaikan volume penjualan CPOsebesar 2,7% menjadi 157.014 ton dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun 2009. Kenaikan terjadi di tengah merosotnya produksi sebesar 4,7% menjadi 141.135 ton, namun kenaikan penjualan dapat tercapai karena perusahaan masih memiliki cadangan CPO pada akhir tahun lalu.
SGRO: Laba Bersih Merosot 35,89%
Laba bersih PT Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO) pada tahun lalu merosot 35,89% dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya karena penurunan penjualan dan laba usaha. SGRO mencetak laba bersih Rp281,77 miliar atau Rp151 per saham pada tahun lalu dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya Rp439,52 miliar atau Rp236 per saham. Seiring dengan penurunan laba usaha, marjin usaha SGRO juga melemah dari 26,7% pada 2008 menjadi 25,34% pada tahun lalu.Penjualan SGRO terkoreksi 20,52% dari Rp2,29 triliun pada 2008 menjadi Rp1,82 triliun pada tahun lalu.
JSMR: Patungan Rp100 Miliar dengan PTPP
PT Jsa Marga Tbk (JSMR) dan PT PP Tbk (PTPP) menyiapkan dana sedikitnya Rp100 miliar untuk mendirikan anak usaha di sektor properti. Proyek patungan di antara dua perusahaan konstruksi pelat merah itu dijadwalkan terbentuk pada 2H10. Dana internal untuk pengembangan anak usaha itu sekitar Rp50 miliar. Anak usaha JSMR tersebut akan mulai beroperasi di Sidoarjo, Jawa Timur.
AGRO: Bank Agro batalkan rights issue
PT Bank Agroniaga Tbk dipastikan membatalkan rencana rights issue sehubungan dengan akan masuknya PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BRI) di bank yang sebagian besar sahamnya dikuasai dana pensiun perkebunan BUMN (Dapenbun) itu. Dewan Pengawas Dapenbun Andi Punoko mengungkapkan Bank Agro sebelumnya berencana melaksanakan rights issue untuk meningkatkan rasio kecukupan modal.
MPPA: Bapepam Restui RUPSLB Matahari
Bapepam-LK akhirnya mengizinkan PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk (MPPA) untuk menggelar RUPSLB guna mendapat persetujuan dari pemegang saham atas penjualan 90,76% saham
di PT Matahari Department Store Tbk senilai Rp 7,16 triliun. Bapepam memberikan izin itu karena penjelasan dari Matahari dinilai sudah memadai.
BMRI: NPL Perseroan Susut
PT Bank Mandiri Tbk membukukan angka Non Performing Loan (NPL) gross alias kredit macet sebelum dicadangkan sebesar 2,8%. Padahal, 2008 lalu NPL masih 4,7%. Sementara, NPL setelah pencadangan pun pun juga turun dari 1,09% menjadi 0,42%. Penurunan NPL ini disebabkan dua hal. Yang pertama karena jumlah penyaluran kredit baru yang cukup
besar sehingga otomatis juga membesar komponen angka pembagi dalam perhitungan NPL. Kedua akibat dari program restrukturisasi debitur-debitur kelas kakap sepanjang 2009 kemarin. Beberapa utang yang berhasil direstrukturisasi antara lain adalah Domba Mas yang mencapai Rp 3,3 triliun, Djajanti Grup US$ 18,6 juta, dan Suba Indah senilai Rp 1,28 triliun.
BMRI: Laba Bersih 2009 Naik 36% ditopang oleh Meningkatnya Pendapatan Bunga
PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) membukukan kenaikan laba bersih sebesar 36% pada 2009 seiring meningkatnya pendapatan bunga. Perusahaan optimis tren ini akan terus berlanjut pada tahun ini. Laba bersih naik menjadi Rp 7.2 triliun pada 2009 dari Rp 5.3 triliun pada tahun sebelumnya. Net interest income (NII) naik 14% menjadi Rp 17.35 triliun dari Rp 15.29 triliun pada tahun sebelumnya. Sementara, total outstanding kredit mencapai Rp 198.5 triliun, naik 14% dari Rp 174.1 triliun pada akhir Desember 2008.
SGRO: Laba Bersih Merosot 35,89%
Laba bersih PT Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO) pada tahun lalu merosot 35,89% dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya karena penurunan penjualan dan laba usaha. SGRO mencetak laba bersih Rp281,77 miliar atau Rp151 per saham pada tahun lalu dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya Rp439,52 miliar atau Rp236 per saham. Seiring dengan penurunan laba usaha, marjin usaha SGRO juga melemah dari 26,7% pada 2008 menjadi 25,34% pada tahun lalu.Penjualan SGRO terkoreksi 20,52% dari Rp2,29 triliun pada 2008 menjadi Rp1,82 triliun pada tahun lalu.
INDF: Laba Bersih FY09 Melonjak 101%
PT Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) membukukan kenaikan laba bersih hingga dua kali lipat pada 2009, ebagian besar disebabkan oleh laba selisih kurs. Laba bersih naik menjadi Rp 2.1 triliun dari Rp 1.0 triliun pada akhir 008. Penjualan turun 4.4% menajdi Rp 37.1 triliun dari Rp 38.8 triliun pada tahun sebelumnya.
Salim Ivomas Gaet Untung Kurs Rp324,87 M
PT Salim Ivomas meraih keuntungan kurs sepanjang 2009 sebesar Rp324,879 miliar ketimbang sebelumnya merugi sekitar Rp230,216 miliar.
Sumber: Bloomberg, inilah.com, kontan, investordaily, detikfinance (market flash)
Gallery Saham Mania: Globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Research Kim Eng Sec: Buy SOBI target Rp 1.830
Pemodal perlu mencermati pergerakan saham PT Polychem Indonesia Tbk (ADMG) karena potensi penguatannya diproyeksikan hingga Rp180-an. Pemilik saham terbesar perseroan, PT Gajah Tunggal Tbk dikabarkan mau menjual seluruh sahamnya dan tengah menggelar beauty contest bagi pembeli.
Institusi asing asal Jepang diisukan akan meningkatkan kepemilikan saham PT Pelat Timah Nusantara Tbk (Latinusa (NIKL) dan mendapatkan wakilnya di jajaran manajemen perseroan. Selain itu, penambahan kapasitas produksi juga akan memberikan sentimen positif kepada sahamnya.
PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF) berhasil mencetak lonjakan laba yang cukup fantastis hingga 100% selama tahun 2009. Lonjakan laba itu diperoleh karena turunnya beban usaha di tengah penjualan bersih yang mengalami penurunan. Menurut laporan keuangan Indofood yang dipublikasikan Selasa (23/3/2010), Indofood selama tahun 2009 justru mencatat penjualan menjadi hanya Rp 37,140 triliun dibandingkan tahun 2008 yang sebesar Rp 38,799 triliun.
INVS Implementasi Kelola Data Dari Edison
PT Inovisi Infracom Tbk menerapkan sistem terintegrasi dan solusi pengelolaan data pelanggan dari Edison Mobility untuk menyederhanakan operasional dan menekan biaya.
GJTL Akan 'Stock Split'?
Di tengah anjloknya bursa, saham PT Gajah Tunggal (GJTL) kemarin melesat 20%. Ada rumor perseroan berencana melakukan stock split
PT BW Plantation Tbk (BWPT) membuka opsi untuk membagikan dividen kepada pemegang saham, setelah perseroan berhasil mencetak laba bersih sebesar Rp 167,5 miliar pada tahun 2009. Rencananya dividen yang diberikan minimal 10% dari perolehan laba, atau sekitar Rp 16,75 miliar.
Medco Raih Dana dari MTN US$ 50 Juta
PT Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) berhasil memperoleh dana sebesar US$ 50 juta atau sekitar Rp 457 miliar melalui penerbitan Medium Term Notes kedua (MTN II) pada 22 Maret 2010. Penerbitan instrumen utang ini merupakan bagian dari strategi perseroan dalam memenuhi kebutuhan pendanana pada 2010.
Bank Himpunan Saudara Catatkan Laba Turun 5,3%
PT Bank Himpunan Saudara Tbk (SDRA) mencatatkan pertumbuhan laba bersih turun 5,3% dari Rp37,657 miliar pada 2008 menjadi Rp35,645 miliar pada 2009.
Penguasa Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) kini sudah berganti. Nilai kapitalisasi pasar PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) telah melampaui PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk (TLKM) yang selama bertahun-tahun merajai lantai bursa.Kemarin (22/3), harga saham berkode ASII ini meningkat 0,25% menjadi Rp 40.200 per saham. Otomatis, ini mendongkrak nilai kapitalisasi pasarnya menjadi Rp 162,74 triliun, atau setara 7,36% dari total kapitalisasi BEI yang mencapai Rp 2.211,1 triliun. Sebenarnya, harga saham ASII mencetak rekor tertinggi sepanjang sejarahnya pada Rabu (17/3) pekan lalu, sebesar Rp 40.850 per saham. Namun, posisi teratas baru direngkuhnya kemarin, setelah harga saham TLKM turun 2,42% menjadi Rp 8.050 per saham. Alhasil, nilai kapitalisasi pasar raksasa telekomunikasi ini tergerus menjadi Rp 162,29 triliun. Ini setara dengan 7,34% kapitalisasi pasar BEI. Sepanjang sejarah bursa saham di Indonesia, posisi TLKM tak pernah tergoyahkan kecuali oleh PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) di awal tahun 2008.
Dalam beberapa pekan terakhir, harga saham PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (DOID) terus tertekan. Pada 10 Maret lalu, harganya masih bertengger di level Rp 1.510 per saham. Namun, pada Jumat pekan lalu (19/3), harga saham DOID sudah tergerus 8,61% ke posisi Rp 1.380 per saham. Ternyata, ada rumor panas yang menyebabkan harga saham DOID tertekan. Kabarnya, Grup Sinarmas tengah menjual saham DOID yang merupakan jaminan pinjaman salah seorang petinggi Grup Bakrie.
Ekspansi PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk (INTP) terus berlanjut. Produsen semen Tiga Roda ini akan membangun Pembangkit Listri Tenaga Uap (PLTU) berkapasitas 2x50 Megawatt.
Sekretaris Perusahaan INTP, Dani Handayani, menyatakan, Indocement perlu membangun PLTU demi menghemat pemakaian energi. Maklum, sebesar 60% biaya produksi selama ini berasal dari pemakaian energi. Dari angka itu, sebesar 30% menggunakan mesin diesel.
Harga Batubara Bisa Terkoreksi ke US$ 92
Harga batubara melorot karena harga minyak dunia terperosok ke US$ 79,33 sebarel.
Saham Emiten BUMN Diharapkan Membaik
Menteri Negara BUMN Mustafa Abubakar menginstruksikan kepada direksi 16 emiten dan calon emiten milik pemerintah untuk memperbaiki kinerja perusahaan. Perbaikan secara fundamental diharapkan berdampak terhadap kenaikan harga saham di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI).
Abdi Bangsa Berniat Akuisisi Stasiun Radio
PT Abdi Bangsa Tbk (ABBA) menjajaki akuisisi sejumlah stasiun radio baru di Jakarta pada tahun ini. Perseroan masih bernegosiasi dengan beberapa pemilik stasiun tersebut.
Pemerintah Proses Rights Issue BNI
Kementerian BUMN mulai memproses penerbitan saham baru (rights issue) dan green shoe PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI) bersama Menteri Koordinator Perekonomian dan Menteri Keuangan. Pemerintah optimistis penerbitan surat berharga itu bisa dilaksanakan pada semester II- 2010.
BENTUK ANAK USAHA DI SEKTOR PROPERTI, Jasa Marga-PP Patungan Rp 100 Miliar
PT Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR) dan PT PP Tbk (PTPP) menyiapkan dana sedikitnya Rp 100 miliar untuk mendirikan anak usaha di sektor properti. Proyek patungan di antara dua perusahaan konstruksi pelat merah itu dijadwalkan terbentuk pada semester-II 2010.
Economic: Laju Inflasi akan Tahan Kenaikan Bunga
Laju inflasi yang dinilai masih terkendali, membuat Bank Indonesia belum merencanakan untuk menaikkan suku bunga, sebagaimana yang dilakukan oleh bank sentral di negara lain. Darmin Nasution, Pjs Gubernur BI mengatakan Indonesia belum perlu mengikuti kebijakan moneter negara lain seperti India, terkait dengan kenaikan suku bunga, karena laju inflasi dinilai belum mengkhawatirkan atau masih dalam kisaran proyeksi BI yakni sekitar 5%.
Economic: Dana Rp3 Triliun Terkait Century Diblokir
Pemerintah telah mengajukan blokir dana milik pelaku terkait kasus kejahatan Bank Century kepada otoritas di 12 negara tempat terparkirnya dana kontan dan saham bernilai sekitar Rp3 triliun. Angka itu merupakan hasil verifikasi atas perkiraan nilai total dana yang pernah disebutkan Kepala Bareskrim Polri, saat masih dijabat Komjen Susno Duadji yang menyebut angka Rp12 triliun hingga Rp14 triliun. dana kontan yang sudah diajukan pemblokiran itu, antara lain dana di USB (UBS) Hong Kong senilai US$19,25 juta, pada Standard Chartered Bank di Singapura senilai Sin$400.000, ENG bank di Jersey, AS senilai US$16,5 juta, Britihs Virgin Island, di Quatanamo, Kuba, US$14,8 juta, di Bermuda US$72 juta, di Swiss US$220.000, di Inggris US$872.000.
General: RPP Tembakau ancaman pekerja pabrik rokok
Jika Rancangan Pemerintah (RPP) Pengendalian Produk Tembakau disahkan menjadi peraturan pemerintah (PP), bisa berdampak pemutusan hubungan kerja (PHK) besar-besaran karyawan pabrik-pabrik rokok (PR) yang ada di Kab. Malang. Kepala Dinas Tenaga Kerja dan Transmigrasi Kab. Malang, mengatakan RPP tersebut jelas merugikan industri rokok di Kab. Malang. Saat ini, PR yang beroperasi di Kab. Malang tercatat sebanyak 194 PR dengan 35.000 tenaga kerja (TK).
Energy: Kenaikan TDL di bawah 900 VA tak lebih dari 15%
Pemerintah menjamin rencana penaikan TDL pada Juli 2010 bagi pelanggan berdaya kurang dari 900 VA tidak akan lebih dari 15% sehingga tidak memberatkan masyarakat berdaya beli terbatas.
Property: Pasar property komersial global membaik
Jones Lang LaSalle Global Capital memprediksi kenaikan transaksi properti komersial sepanjang 2010 dibandingkan dengan realisasi tahun lalu mencapai US$ 209 miliar. Volume transaksi properti komersial global sepanjang 2009 melorot 45% menjadi US$ 209 miliar, dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun sebelumnya. Penurunan ini lebih rendah dibandingkan 2008 yang anjlok hingga 50% dari kisaran periode 2007 sebesar US$759 miliar. Jones Lang LaSalle mencatat nilai transaksi properti di Eropa pengunung 2009 sekitar US$ 98 miliar atau turun sekitar 41% dibandingkan pencapaian 2008. Sedangkan volume transaksi di Asia Pacific tidak berkontraksi hebat akibat krisis keuangan global ini. Volume transaksi properti pasar Asia Pacific hanya 23% menjadi US$ 66 miliar, Amerika anjlok 64% menjadi US$ 46 miliar.
MEGA: Targetkan DPK Rp39,8 Triliun
PT Bank Mega Tbk (MEGA) menargetkan perolehan dana pihka ketiga (DPK) naik 21,3% menjadi Rp39,8 triliun pada 2010. Perseroan akan fokus menggenjot pertumbuhan tabungan dan giro untuk mendongkrak DPK ini. Dari proyeksi DPK tahun ini, Rp39,8 triliun, sebnayak 44,7% (Rp17,79 triliun) berupa deposito, 31,8% (Rp12,65 triliun) tabungan, dan 23,5% sisanya (Rp9,35 triliun) giro.
BRPT: Perbesar Saham di Gozco Plantations
PT Barito Pacific Tbk memperbesar kepemilikan sahamnya pada PT Gozco Plantations Tbk dari sebesar 10,01% menjadi 10,59% dengan total kepemilikan menjadi sebanyak 29,71 juta saham. Melalui keterbukaan informasi otoritas bursa hari ini, kepemilikan Barito Pacific pada Gozco bertambah 29,71 juta saham dari level sebelumnya sebanyak 500,5 juta saham yang ditunjukkan pada laporan kepemilikan saham pada awal Maret. Barito Pacific membeli saham Gozco di pasar pada kisaran Rp318,33 sejak 22 Januari hingga 10 Maret dengan tujuan investasi.
AALI: Penjualan CPO Naik 2,7% pada 2M10
Selama Januari-Februari 2010, PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) mencatatkan kenaikan volume penjualan CPOsebesar 2,7% menjadi 157.014 ton dibandingkan periode yang sama tahun 2009. Kenaikan terjadi di tengah merosotnya produksi sebesar 4,7% menjadi 141.135 ton, namun kenaikan penjualan dapat tercapai karena perusahaan masih memiliki cadangan CPO pada akhir tahun lalu.
SGRO: Laba Bersih Merosot 35,89%
Laba bersih PT Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO) pada tahun lalu merosot 35,89% dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya karena penurunan penjualan dan laba usaha. SGRO mencetak laba bersih Rp281,77 miliar atau Rp151 per saham pada tahun lalu dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya Rp439,52 miliar atau Rp236 per saham. Seiring dengan penurunan laba usaha, marjin usaha SGRO juga melemah dari 26,7% pada 2008 menjadi 25,34% pada tahun lalu.Penjualan SGRO terkoreksi 20,52% dari Rp2,29 triliun pada 2008 menjadi Rp1,82 triliun pada tahun lalu.
JSMR: Patungan Rp100 Miliar dengan PTPP
PT Jsa Marga Tbk (JSMR) dan PT PP Tbk (PTPP) menyiapkan dana sedikitnya Rp100 miliar untuk mendirikan anak usaha di sektor properti. Proyek patungan di antara dua perusahaan konstruksi pelat merah itu dijadwalkan terbentuk pada 2H10. Dana internal untuk pengembangan anak usaha itu sekitar Rp50 miliar. Anak usaha JSMR tersebut akan mulai beroperasi di Sidoarjo, Jawa Timur.
AGRO: Bank Agro batalkan rights issue
PT Bank Agroniaga Tbk dipastikan membatalkan rencana rights issue sehubungan dengan akan masuknya PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BRI) di bank yang sebagian besar sahamnya dikuasai dana pensiun perkebunan BUMN (Dapenbun) itu. Dewan Pengawas Dapenbun Andi Punoko mengungkapkan Bank Agro sebelumnya berencana melaksanakan rights issue untuk meningkatkan rasio kecukupan modal.
MPPA: Bapepam Restui RUPSLB Matahari
Bapepam-LK akhirnya mengizinkan PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk (MPPA) untuk menggelar RUPSLB guna mendapat persetujuan dari pemegang saham atas penjualan 90,76% saham
di PT Matahari Department Store Tbk senilai Rp 7,16 triliun. Bapepam memberikan izin itu karena penjelasan dari Matahari dinilai sudah memadai.
BMRI: NPL Perseroan Susut
PT Bank Mandiri Tbk membukukan angka Non Performing Loan (NPL) gross alias kredit macet sebelum dicadangkan sebesar 2,8%. Padahal, 2008 lalu NPL masih 4,7%. Sementara, NPL setelah pencadangan pun pun juga turun dari 1,09% menjadi 0,42%. Penurunan NPL ini disebabkan dua hal. Yang pertama karena jumlah penyaluran kredit baru yang cukup
besar sehingga otomatis juga membesar komponen angka pembagi dalam perhitungan NPL. Kedua akibat dari program restrukturisasi debitur-debitur kelas kakap sepanjang 2009 kemarin. Beberapa utang yang berhasil direstrukturisasi antara lain adalah Domba Mas yang mencapai Rp 3,3 triliun, Djajanti Grup US$ 18,6 juta, dan Suba Indah senilai Rp 1,28 triliun.
BMRI: Laba Bersih 2009 Naik 36% ditopang oleh Meningkatnya Pendapatan Bunga
PT Bank Mandiri Tbk (BMRI) membukukan kenaikan laba bersih sebesar 36% pada 2009 seiring meningkatnya pendapatan bunga. Perusahaan optimis tren ini akan terus berlanjut pada tahun ini. Laba bersih naik menjadi Rp 7.2 triliun pada 2009 dari Rp 5.3 triliun pada tahun sebelumnya. Net interest income (NII) naik 14% menjadi Rp 17.35 triliun dari Rp 15.29 triliun pada tahun sebelumnya. Sementara, total outstanding kredit mencapai Rp 198.5 triliun, naik 14% dari Rp 174.1 triliun pada akhir Desember 2008.
SGRO: Laba Bersih Merosot 35,89%
Laba bersih PT Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO) pada tahun lalu merosot 35,89% dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya karena penurunan penjualan dan laba usaha. SGRO mencetak laba bersih Rp281,77 miliar atau Rp151 per saham pada tahun lalu dibandingkan dengan tahun sebelumnya Rp439,52 miliar atau Rp236 per saham. Seiring dengan penurunan laba usaha, marjin usaha SGRO juga melemah dari 26,7% pada 2008 menjadi 25,34% pada tahun lalu.Penjualan SGRO terkoreksi 20,52% dari Rp2,29 triliun pada 2008 menjadi Rp1,82 triliun pada tahun lalu.
INDF: Laba Bersih FY09 Melonjak 101%
PT Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) membukukan kenaikan laba bersih hingga dua kali lipat pada 2009, ebagian besar disebabkan oleh laba selisih kurs. Laba bersih naik menjadi Rp 2.1 triliun dari Rp 1.0 triliun pada akhir 008. Penjualan turun 4.4% menajdi Rp 37.1 triliun dari Rp 38.8 triliun pada tahun sebelumnya.
Salim Ivomas Gaet Untung Kurs Rp324,87 M
PT Salim Ivomas meraih keuntungan kurs sepanjang 2009 sebesar Rp324,879 miliar ketimbang sebelumnya merugi sekitar Rp230,216 miliar.
Sumber: Bloomberg, inilah.com, kontan, investordaily, detikfinance (market flash)
Gallery Saham Mania: Globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Update Daily Investment News
0945 GMT [Dow Jones] Indonesia shares end +0.7% at 2720.862 in moderate volume, helped by steady IDR, gains on Wall Street. Index off intraday high of 2745.942; "Profit taking by most local funds, however, reduced gains (of the main index)," says trader at First Asia Capital; expects shares to consolidate tomorrow; tips index at 2700-2750 range. Bank Mandiri (BMRI.JK) up 3.0% at IDR5,150 after reporting strong 2009 earnings, BCA (BBCA.JK) up 2.8% at IDR5,600 ahead of expected strong 2009 earnings to be announced tomorrow, while car maker Astra (ASII.JK) up 1.5% at IDR40,800 ahead of its plan to give IDR830 dividend per share. Profit taking hits cigarette maker Gudang Garam (GGRM.JK), down 1.1% at IDR26,700. (edhi.pranasidhi@dowjones.com) .
0917 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/IDR remains steady at 9,125 in late session, with most deals done between 9,115-9,125 earlier in day, dealers say. "The market lacked fresh direction," dealer says; adds government bond auction seems to attract little foreign fund inflows despite auction drawing IDR17.91 trillion total bids, indicating most bidders were local institutional investors. 9,110-9,140 tipped for Wednesday, with more upside potential on expected month-end demand from importers.(i-made.sentana@dowjones.com)
0953 GMT [Dow Jones] The risk in EUR/USD is towards the 1.3433 recent low, says Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones. This, together with the long-term Fibonacci support at 1.3405, remain key props as well as key breakdown levels. Says below 1.34 signals the next leg lower is underway, with targets of 1.3030 and 1.2930. Topside, resistance comes in at 1.3550 and 1.3640. EUR/USD now at 1.3525. (gary.stride@dowjones.com)
0915 GMT [Dow Jones] Fading hopes that the euro zone will come up with a rescue package for Greece this week have left the EUR sinking and the USD rising but with both remaining within recent trading ranges. Sentiment wasn't helped by dovish comments from Fed officials overnight and the prospect of more soft existing home sales out of the US. Expectations of last-minute Japanese repatriation is helping the JPY while the GBP is down as the market waits for the latest UK budget Wednesday. The USD is up at Y90.28 while the EUR is down at $1.3523. The GBP is down at $1.5039.
0935 GMT [Dow Jones] Sterling slips after UK inflation comes in at 0.4% from 0.6% expected in February with the year on year number also 0.2% under forecast at 3.0%. GBP/USD slips from 1.5030 to the day's low of 1.5003 but now trades at 1.5015, EUR/GBP is 10 ticks higher at 0.9012. (gary.stride@dowjones.com)
0414 GMT [Dow Jones] Danamon still sees room for Indonesian government's long-end bond yields (15 years and above), particularly 20-year, to fall. "At currently 10.35%, the 20-year still trades at wide spreads over the 5-year and 10-year. A yield decline of 25 - 50bps towards 10.00% or slightly below, appears like a reasonable scenario," says house; adds risk to forecast is potential abundant new supply of government bonds, which could prevent rally in long-end bonds; meanwhile sees room for 10-year yield decline limited. (I-Made.Sentana@dowjones.com)
0423 GMT [Dow Jones] Nikkei down 0.4% at 10,781.14, down from midday close of 10,797.51, as profit-taking continues as Nikkei still technically overheated, trading 3.4% above its 25-day moving average, says Japanese brokerage manager. But adds selling slowed when Nikkei reaches 5-day moving average of 10,783; although stronger yen (USD/JPY now 90.27) hurting mood, some stocks rising on individual news catalysts, such as Toshiba (6502.TO), +4.2% at Y469 on hopes for JV with Bill Gates to develop next-generation nuclear reactor. Sony (6758.TO) also up 3.1% at Y3,630 on hopes for its 3D TV businesses/gaming and navigation partnership with Google (GOOG). For the rest of this month, "investors are unlikely to hold large positions before closing their books," thus trading volume expected to stay thin, he says. Topix now also in negative territory (down 0.01%), after ending morning session slightly above break-even; 22/33 subindexes in negative territory, with real estate sharply weaker (down 2.4%) for 3rd straight session (down 6.1% over span). (ayai.tomisawa@dowjones.com)
0437 GMT [Dow Jones] HSI +1.0% at 21,149.39 midday, rebounding as yesterday's selloff in knee-jerk reaction India rate hike appears overdone. Still, volume tepid at HK$27.97 billion, 10-day moving average at 21,200 immediate cap. Celestial Securities believes it may be time for bargain hunting, especially on property stocks, as believes China, U.S. interest rates "will continue to stay low for extended period." Li & Fung (0494.HK) best-performing blue chip, +3.7% at HK$41.65 ahead of FY09 results tomorrow, followed by another export play Esprit (0330.HK) +3.2% at HK$60.65. Mainland developers remain laggards as sector tightening concerns linger; China Overseas Land (0688.HK) down 0.9% at HK$16.18, China Resources Land (1109.HK) down 1.2% at HK$16.22. (robert.li@dowjones.com)
0433 GMT [Dow Jones] Kospi +0.5% at 1680.99 with gains in techs as foreigners resume buying in market, but off day's high of 1689.46 on profit-taking by local retail investors, funds. "Offshore investors' stock and futures buying resumed, supporting the market. But the Kospi seems to be feeling fatigued along with global peers after recent rapid gains, so it is expected to undergo mild correction" for while, says Lee Kyoung-min at Woori Investment & Securities; tips 1670 as immediate floor, then 1650, but suggests to buy on dip as Kospi's uptrend remain intact. LG Display (034220.SE) +4.2% at KRW39,500, Samsung Electronics (005930.SE) +0.6% at KRW806,000. Most banks remain up; KB Financial (105560.SE) +1.0% at KRW52,500. Kia Motors (000270.SE) still down 0.8% at KRW24,350. Kumho Tire (073240.SE) down 14.7% at KRW3,115 on capital erosion news. (soo-kyung.seo@dowjones.com)
0414 GMT [Dow Jones] China shares turn lower midday; financial stocks, property developers weak on expectations companies may announce lower dividends (at upcoming earnings reports) as they look to build cash reserves amid monetary tightening environment. Shanghai Composite Index down 0.3% at 3066.68 vs 3082.97 early high; immediate support at 3050. "The monetary tightening theme still holds, and banks would have to keep more of their profits in reserves, rather than reward investors," says Zhang Gang from Southwest Securities. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SH) off 0.4% at CNY22.12, Huatai Securities Co. (601688.SH) off 0.3% at CNY21.81, China Merchants Property Development Co.(000024.SZ) off 1.3% at CNY23.90. Shenzhen Composite Index down 0.3% at 1183.14. (esther.fung@dowjones.com)
0439 GMT [Dow Jones] Singapore stocks hold gains from early rise fuelled by Wall Street's advance, sending STI back above 2900 after index closed below that level yesterday for first time in four sessions. Benchmark +0.6% at 2905.87 midday; expected to meet resistance at 2-month high of 2932 set last week. Market breadth at just under two gainers for every decliner, with volume light at 671.6 million shares, driven mainly by small-cap stocks. "The market's undertone still looks quite good, although there's not much liquidity," says dealer at foreign brokerage. Tech stocks among better performers on rotational interest. FTSE ST Technology Index +1.6%. Notable gainers in sector include Armstrong Industrial (A14.SG) +6.2% at S$0.345, Broadway Industrial (B69.SG) +4.5% at S$0.925, Cheung Woh Technologies (C50.SG) +3.0% at S$0.34, Innotek (M14.SG) +3.0% at S$0.515, Meiban Group (M24.SG) +3.2% at S$0.32. (frankie.ho@dowjones.com)
0424 GMT [Dow Jones] Macquarie more optimistic on energy sector, lifts 2010 West Texas Intermediate crude forecast 18% to US$86.50/bbl from US$73.00, hikes 2011 forecast 13% to US$90.00 from US$80.00 and forecasts 2013 average price of US$109.00. Says recent data shows oil demand growing faster in more places than expected with supply responses late. Points to global oil demand growth of 1.2% in 4Q09, with rapid economic growth in traditional developing countries like China resulting in V-shaped crude demand recovery for non-OECD countries, that should support growth in developed world. Expects 2010 global demand growth of 2.4%, which it says is materially above consensus, much more bullish than OPEC. Raises Woodside (WPL.AU), Santos (STO.AU) price targets 6% and 3% to A$53/share and A$18/share, respectively. (Ross.Kelly@dowjones.com)
0427 GMT [Dow Jones] Risk to USD from Fed officials' speeches this week is "on balance, to the downside," as still high unemployment means Fed "may not be in the position for any quicker exit from its loose monetary policies," says Hideki Amikura, senior FX dealer at Nomura Trust and Banking. Before San Francisco Fed President Yellen speaks later in global day, says "the risk is that you'd have dovish members like Yellen making statements that could weigh on the dollar." But adds, while that could buoy EUR/USD, lingering concern that Greece's fiscal woes won't be resolved at meeting of European leaders later in week may cap pair at 1.3600 vs last 1.3558. (andrew.monahan@dowjones.com)
0415 GMT [Dow Jones] JPMorgan moves further out on Indonesian bond curve, now long 20-year vs 10-year paper; says emerging markets about to tighten, investors look for carry in long-end rather than short-end. Says yield on 20-year paper at 10.30%, 130 bps above 10-year; expects yield on 20-year to rise by another 50 bps. Overall in Asia, house recommends flatteners only, as China may soon hike rates, following India's unexpected hike Friday; house holds on to 2 year-to-5-year MYR IRS curve flattener, spread now at 65 bps, targets 60 bps. (aries.poon@dowjones.com)
0248 GMT [Dow Jones] NZD/USD range trading after dipping, recovering overnight; "It was risk-off on Greece, then risk-on with U.S. healthcare reforms, bringing it back to exactly where it was," says Westpac market strategist Imre Speizer. Pair last 0.7064 vs 0.7057 late yesterday. Says might be more action later in week given NZ current account data tomorrow, GDP Thursday. Market tipped to also continue to focus on Greece's fiscal problems; "It'll be on and off, it will be backwards and forwards," says Speizer. Says Kiwi has firm support at 0.7000, resistance around 0.7160. But, "it is not looking like anything is going to make it go higher unless we get good local data." (rebecca.howard@dowjones.com)
0229 GMT [Dow Jones] 1-month ATM USD/JPY implied volatilities rise to 9.80%/10.35% vs 9.70%/10.40% in NY overnight, as market participants buying options for position adjustment at start of week. "Players who sold hedges excessively late last week (before the long weekend) are buying back" and these aren't directional bets that indicate market sentiment, says Tokyo options dealer. As view grows that spot likely to stay in narrow band amid lack of fresh trading cues, one market participant sold 6-day EUR/JPY ATM straddles with relatively small face amount. (miho.nakauchi@dowjones.com)
Aussie ‘Rejected,’ May Fall to 2-Week Low: Technical Analysis \
(Bloomberg) -- Australia’s dollar may fall to a two-week low after retreating from so-called resistance at 92.52 U.S. cents, according to Forecast Pte, citing trading patterns.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZuhYATpSu.g
Euro May Fall Past Record to 1.40 Francs: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The euro may drop past the all-time low to 1.40 Swiss francs on the “inability” of the Swiss National Bank to halt its currency’s gain, according to Barclays Plc, citing technical indicators.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aLgDKZJRxHx0
Ten-Year Note a Buy at Apex of ‘Pennant’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Treasury investors should buy the 10-year note when prices dip in its trading range, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, citing technical indicators.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0XLJWZxbV4Q
Hong Kong Stocks to Lose to China on Yuan, BNP Says
(Bloomberg) -- Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong will underperform yuan-denominated shares across the border this year as the central government allows the currency to resume its appreciation against the dollar, according to BNP Paribas.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anNsF_jcxO_c
Gold May Drop to $1,030 as Dollar Favored, GFMS Analytics Says
(Bloomberg) -- Gold may decline to $1,030 an ounce in the next few weeks as sovereign debt problems in Europe prompt investors to favor the dollar as an asset of “first resort,” GFMS Analytics Ltd. said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=afTpZDXhGh0k
Yen Gains Deceptive, Traders Most Bearish in 3 Years
(Bloomberg) -- Japanese households are sending funds overseas at the fastest pace since 2007 in search of higher yields as currency strategists predict the yen will slump 8 percent versus the dollar by the end of the year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=asRdX21MdIaQ
(Bloomberg) -- Thai stocks may rise 10 percent in the next six months, extending Asia’s biggest rally in March, as an economic rebound and currency gain lure overseas investors, the manager of the nation’s best-performing fund said.
Thai Stocks to Extend Asia’s Biggest Rally, ING Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=alVtfm9A8I6g
U.S. Stocks Outlook Is ‘Quite Positive’ for Legg Mason’s Miller
(Bloomberg) -- Legg Mason Inc.’s Bill Miller said he has a “quite positive” outlook for U.S. stocks and favors technology and financial companies because of their valuations.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVJpCki8q.pw
Stocks Show Economy Revving as Cyclical Shares Win
(Bloomberg) -- Retailers erased their stock market losses since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and transportation companies doubled in a year, signs the advance in U.S. equities is just getting started.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aAbB1.aZZluA
China’s Stocks Will Extend Drop, Dreyfus’ Simon Says
(Bloomberg) -- China’s stocks will likely extend declines for the next several months as inflation risks increase before rebounding by the third quarter, said Hugh Simon, co- manager of the $1.1 billion Dreyfus Greater China Fund.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aPV79cpZdxAU
China’s Stocks Enter ‘Bullish Triangle,’ Wang Says
(Bloomberg) -- China’s benchmark stock index has developed a “bullish triangle” formation that may send the measure up by as much as 47 percent, according to Wang Tao, president of the Technical Analysts Society (Singapore).
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aW3frOqQjQ_8
Does Euro Reversal Signal 'All Clear' For Commodities?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35989784
This Is Still a Bear-Market Rally: Analyst
Equity markets have switched from fear to outright complacency in the space of one year and are ignoring the warning signs, according to SquawkBox Europe's guest host, Phillippe Gijsels, head of research at BNP Paribas Fortis Global Markets.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35980915
BHP Says Trend to Market-Based Ore Pricing Will Stay
(Bloomberg) -- BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, said the trend toward market-based pricing of iron ore will continue, as it pushes to change the way the commodity is priced.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a_klg5wMqJCE
Speculators’ Bets on Natural Gas Drop Reach a Record, CFTC Says
(Bloomberg) -- Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-short positions, or bets that natural gas will fall, to a record, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aXYonG4vXva4
IMF’s Lipsky Says Emerging Asia to Grow 8.5% in 2010
(Bloomberg) -- Emerging Asia is expected to grow at more than twice the pace of the global economy this year, led by China and India, International Monetary Fund official John Lipsky said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aUpE6ZrFPeDk
0917 GMT [Dow Jones] USD/IDR remains steady at 9,125 in late session, with most deals done between 9,115-9,125 earlier in day, dealers say. "The market lacked fresh direction," dealer says; adds government bond auction seems to attract little foreign fund inflows despite auction drawing IDR17.91 trillion total bids, indicating most bidders were local institutional investors. 9,110-9,140 tipped for Wednesday, with more upside potential on expected month-end demand from importers.(i-made.sentana@dowjones.com)
0953 GMT [Dow Jones] The risk in EUR/USD is towards the 1.3433 recent low, says Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones. This, together with the long-term Fibonacci support at 1.3405, remain key props as well as key breakdown levels. Says below 1.34 signals the next leg lower is underway, with targets of 1.3030 and 1.2930. Topside, resistance comes in at 1.3550 and 1.3640. EUR/USD now at 1.3525. (gary.stride@dowjones.com)
0915 GMT [Dow Jones] Fading hopes that the euro zone will come up with a rescue package for Greece this week have left the EUR sinking and the USD rising but with both remaining within recent trading ranges. Sentiment wasn't helped by dovish comments from Fed officials overnight and the prospect of more soft existing home sales out of the US. Expectations of last-minute Japanese repatriation is helping the JPY while the GBP is down as the market waits for the latest UK budget Wednesday. The USD is up at Y90.28 while the EUR is down at $1.3523. The GBP is down at $1.5039.
0935 GMT [Dow Jones] Sterling slips after UK inflation comes in at 0.4% from 0.6% expected in February with the year on year number also 0.2% under forecast at 3.0%. GBP/USD slips from 1.5030 to the day's low of 1.5003 but now trades at 1.5015, EUR/GBP is 10 ticks higher at 0.9012. (gary.stride@dowjones.com)
0414 GMT [Dow Jones] Danamon still sees room for Indonesian government's long-end bond yields (15 years and above), particularly 20-year, to fall. "At currently 10.35%, the 20-year still trades at wide spreads over the 5-year and 10-year. A yield decline of 25 - 50bps towards 10.00% or slightly below, appears like a reasonable scenario," says house; adds risk to forecast is potential abundant new supply of government bonds, which could prevent rally in long-end bonds; meanwhile sees room for 10-year yield decline limited. (I-Made.Sentana@dowjones.com)
0423 GMT [Dow Jones] Nikkei down 0.4% at 10,781.14, down from midday close of 10,797.51, as profit-taking continues as Nikkei still technically overheated, trading 3.4% above its 25-day moving average, says Japanese brokerage manager. But adds selling slowed when Nikkei reaches 5-day moving average of 10,783; although stronger yen (USD/JPY now 90.27) hurting mood, some stocks rising on individual news catalysts, such as Toshiba (6502.TO), +4.2% at Y469 on hopes for JV with Bill Gates to develop next-generation nuclear reactor. Sony (6758.TO) also up 3.1% at Y3,630 on hopes for its 3D TV businesses/gaming and navigation partnership with Google (GOOG). For the rest of this month, "investors are unlikely to hold large positions before closing their books," thus trading volume expected to stay thin, he says. Topix now also in negative territory (down 0.01%), after ending morning session slightly above break-even; 22/33 subindexes in negative territory, with real estate sharply weaker (down 2.4%) for 3rd straight session (down 6.1% over span). (ayai.tomisawa@dowjones.com)
0437 GMT [Dow Jones] HSI +1.0% at 21,149.39 midday, rebounding as yesterday's selloff in knee-jerk reaction India rate hike appears overdone. Still, volume tepid at HK$27.97 billion, 10-day moving average at 21,200 immediate cap. Celestial Securities believes it may be time for bargain hunting, especially on property stocks, as believes China, U.S. interest rates "will continue to stay low for extended period." Li & Fung (0494.HK) best-performing blue chip, +3.7% at HK$41.65 ahead of FY09 results tomorrow, followed by another export play Esprit (0330.HK) +3.2% at HK$60.65. Mainland developers remain laggards as sector tightening concerns linger; China Overseas Land (0688.HK) down 0.9% at HK$16.18, China Resources Land (1109.HK) down 1.2% at HK$16.22. (robert.li@dowjones.com)
0433 GMT [Dow Jones] Kospi +0.5% at 1680.99 with gains in techs as foreigners resume buying in market, but off day's high of 1689.46 on profit-taking by local retail investors, funds. "Offshore investors' stock and futures buying resumed, supporting the market. But the Kospi seems to be feeling fatigued along with global peers after recent rapid gains, so it is expected to undergo mild correction" for while, says Lee Kyoung-min at Woori Investment & Securities; tips 1670 as immediate floor, then 1650, but suggests to buy on dip as Kospi's uptrend remain intact. LG Display (034220.SE) +4.2% at KRW39,500, Samsung Electronics (005930.SE) +0.6% at KRW806,000. Most banks remain up; KB Financial (105560.SE) +1.0% at KRW52,500. Kia Motors (000270.SE) still down 0.8% at KRW24,350. Kumho Tire (073240.SE) down 14.7% at KRW3,115 on capital erosion news. (soo-kyung.seo@dowjones.com)
0414 GMT [Dow Jones] China shares turn lower midday; financial stocks, property developers weak on expectations companies may announce lower dividends (at upcoming earnings reports) as they look to build cash reserves amid monetary tightening environment. Shanghai Composite Index down 0.3% at 3066.68 vs 3082.97 early high; immediate support at 3050. "The monetary tightening theme still holds, and banks would have to keep more of their profits in reserves, rather than reward investors," says Zhang Gang from Southwest Securities. Shanghai Pudong Development Bank (600000.SH) off 0.4% at CNY22.12, Huatai Securities Co. (601688.SH) off 0.3% at CNY21.81, China Merchants Property Development Co.(000024.SZ) off 1.3% at CNY23.90. Shenzhen Composite Index down 0.3% at 1183.14. (esther.fung@dowjones.com)
0439 GMT [Dow Jones] Singapore stocks hold gains from early rise fuelled by Wall Street's advance, sending STI back above 2900 after index closed below that level yesterday for first time in four sessions. Benchmark +0.6% at 2905.87 midday; expected to meet resistance at 2-month high of 2932 set last week. Market breadth at just under two gainers for every decliner, with volume light at 671.6 million shares, driven mainly by small-cap stocks. "The market's undertone still looks quite good, although there's not much liquidity," says dealer at foreign brokerage. Tech stocks among better performers on rotational interest. FTSE ST Technology Index +1.6%. Notable gainers in sector include Armstrong Industrial (A14.SG) +6.2% at S$0.345, Broadway Industrial (B69.SG) +4.5% at S$0.925, Cheung Woh Technologies (C50.SG) +3.0% at S$0.34, Innotek (M14.SG) +3.0% at S$0.515, Meiban Group (M24.SG) +3.2% at S$0.32. (frankie.ho@dowjones.com)
0424 GMT [Dow Jones] Macquarie more optimistic on energy sector, lifts 2010 West Texas Intermediate crude forecast 18% to US$86.50/bbl from US$73.00, hikes 2011 forecast 13% to US$90.00 from US$80.00 and forecasts 2013 average price of US$109.00. Says recent data shows oil demand growing faster in more places than expected with supply responses late. Points to global oil demand growth of 1.2% in 4Q09, with rapid economic growth in traditional developing countries like China resulting in V-shaped crude demand recovery for non-OECD countries, that should support growth in developed world. Expects 2010 global demand growth of 2.4%, which it says is materially above consensus, much more bullish than OPEC. Raises Woodside (WPL.AU), Santos (STO.AU) price targets 6% and 3% to A$53/share and A$18/share, respectively. (Ross.Kelly@dowjones.com)
0427 GMT [Dow Jones] Risk to USD from Fed officials' speeches this week is "on balance, to the downside," as still high unemployment means Fed "may not be in the position for any quicker exit from its loose monetary policies," says Hideki Amikura, senior FX dealer at Nomura Trust and Banking. Before San Francisco Fed President Yellen speaks later in global day, says "the risk is that you'd have dovish members like Yellen making statements that could weigh on the dollar." But adds, while that could buoy EUR/USD, lingering concern that Greece's fiscal woes won't be resolved at meeting of European leaders later in week may cap pair at 1.3600 vs last 1.3558. (andrew.monahan@dowjones.com)
0415 GMT [Dow Jones] JPMorgan moves further out on Indonesian bond curve, now long 20-year vs 10-year paper; says emerging markets about to tighten, investors look for carry in long-end rather than short-end. Says yield on 20-year paper at 10.30%, 130 bps above 10-year; expects yield on 20-year to rise by another 50 bps. Overall in Asia, house recommends flatteners only, as China may soon hike rates, following India's unexpected hike Friday; house holds on to 2 year-to-5-year MYR IRS curve flattener, spread now at 65 bps, targets 60 bps. (aries.poon@dowjones.com)
0248 GMT [Dow Jones] NZD/USD range trading after dipping, recovering overnight; "It was risk-off on Greece, then risk-on with U.S. healthcare reforms, bringing it back to exactly where it was," says Westpac market strategist Imre Speizer. Pair last 0.7064 vs 0.7057 late yesterday. Says might be more action later in week given NZ current account data tomorrow, GDP Thursday. Market tipped to also continue to focus on Greece's fiscal problems; "It'll be on and off, it will be backwards and forwards," says Speizer. Says Kiwi has firm support at 0.7000, resistance around 0.7160. But, "it is not looking like anything is going to make it go higher unless we get good local data." (rebecca.howard@dowjones.com)
0229 GMT [Dow Jones] 1-month ATM USD/JPY implied volatilities rise to 9.80%/10.35% vs 9.70%/10.40% in NY overnight, as market participants buying options for position adjustment at start of week. "Players who sold hedges excessively late last week (before the long weekend) are buying back" and these aren't directional bets that indicate market sentiment, says Tokyo options dealer. As view grows that spot likely to stay in narrow band amid lack of fresh trading cues, one market participant sold 6-day EUR/JPY ATM straddles with relatively small face amount. (miho.nakauchi@dowjones.com)
Aussie ‘Rejected,’ May Fall to 2-Week Low: Technical Analysis \
(Bloomberg) -- Australia’s dollar may fall to a two-week low after retreating from so-called resistance at 92.52 U.S. cents, according to Forecast Pte, citing trading patterns.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZuhYATpSu.g
Euro May Fall Past Record to 1.40 Francs: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The euro may drop past the all-time low to 1.40 Swiss francs on the “inability” of the Swiss National Bank to halt its currency’s gain, according to Barclays Plc, citing technical indicators.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aLgDKZJRxHx0
Ten-Year Note a Buy at Apex of ‘Pennant’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Treasury investors should buy the 10-year note when prices dip in its trading range, according to Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc, citing technical indicators.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0XLJWZxbV4Q
Hong Kong Stocks to Lose to China on Yuan, BNP Says
(Bloomberg) -- Chinese stocks traded in Hong Kong will underperform yuan-denominated shares across the border this year as the central government allows the currency to resume its appreciation against the dollar, according to BNP Paribas.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anNsF_jcxO_c
Gold May Drop to $1,030 as Dollar Favored, GFMS Analytics Says
(Bloomberg) -- Gold may decline to $1,030 an ounce in the next few weeks as sovereign debt problems in Europe prompt investors to favor the dollar as an asset of “first resort,” GFMS Analytics Ltd. said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=afTpZDXhGh0k
Yen Gains Deceptive, Traders Most Bearish in 3 Years
(Bloomberg) -- Japanese households are sending funds overseas at the fastest pace since 2007 in search of higher yields as currency strategists predict the yen will slump 8 percent versus the dollar by the end of the year.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=asRdX21MdIaQ
(Bloomberg) -- Thai stocks may rise 10 percent in the next six months, extending Asia’s biggest rally in March, as an economic rebound and currency gain lure overseas investors, the manager of the nation’s best-performing fund said.
Thai Stocks to Extend Asia’s Biggest Rally, ING Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=alVtfm9A8I6g
U.S. Stocks Outlook Is ‘Quite Positive’ for Legg Mason’s Miller
(Bloomberg) -- Legg Mason Inc.’s Bill Miller said he has a “quite positive” outlook for U.S. stocks and favors technology and financial companies because of their valuations.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVJpCki8q.pw
Stocks Show Economy Revving as Cyclical Shares Win
(Bloomberg) -- Retailers erased their stock market losses since the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and transportation companies doubled in a year, signs the advance in U.S. equities is just getting started.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aAbB1.aZZluA
China’s Stocks Will Extend Drop, Dreyfus’ Simon Says
(Bloomberg) -- China’s stocks will likely extend declines for the next several months as inflation risks increase before rebounding by the third quarter, said Hugh Simon, co- manager of the $1.1 billion Dreyfus Greater China Fund.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aPV79cpZdxAU
China’s Stocks Enter ‘Bullish Triangle,’ Wang Says
(Bloomberg) -- China’s benchmark stock index has developed a “bullish triangle” formation that may send the measure up by as much as 47 percent, according to Wang Tao, president of the Technical Analysts Society (Singapore).
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aW3frOqQjQ_8
Does Euro Reversal Signal 'All Clear' For Commodities?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35989784
This Is Still a Bear-Market Rally: Analyst
Equity markets have switched from fear to outright complacency in the space of one year and are ignoring the warning signs, according to SquawkBox Europe's guest host, Phillippe Gijsels, head of research at BNP Paribas Fortis Global Markets.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/35980915
BHP Says Trend to Market-Based Ore Pricing Will Stay
(Bloomberg) -- BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, said the trend toward market-based pricing of iron ore will continue, as it pushes to change the way the commodity is priced.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a_klg5wMqJCE
Speculators’ Bets on Natural Gas Drop Reach a Record, CFTC Says
(Bloomberg) -- Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators increased their net-short positions, or bets that natural gas will fall, to a record, according to the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aXYonG4vXva4
IMF’s Lipsky Says Emerging Asia to Grow 8.5% in 2010
(Bloomberg) -- Emerging Asia is expected to grow at more than twice the pace of the global economy this year, led by China and India, International Monetary Fund official John Lipsky said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aUpE6ZrFPeDk
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