Friday, April 16, 2010
Hold Buy IHSG 2838 & 2875 target 2936/2965 stop 2875; Trading Buy 10 Saham
IHSG masih berada dalam uptrend channel, buying power yang kuat, higher high higher low, untuk target 2916/2930, potensi koreksi terbatas di support 2893/2883.
Why Economic Forecasts Often Fail
Linear thinking often utterly misses the mark in financial forecasting.
Let's begin with a paradox -- the one constant in our society is dramatic change. This is the main reason why projecting present conditions into the future often fails.
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/04/09/Why-Economic-Forecasts-Often-Fail.aspx
The "rare wave formation" described in January Theorist: Did it give a false alarm?
The Januray EW Theorist said: "he third zigzag, wave (Z), is ending with a contracting triangle and a diagonal, as shown in Fig 1. A triangle always precedes the final wave in a sequence, and a diagonal is always an ending wave. It is a rare pleasure to find these two forms adjacent to each other. The EWT documented this occurrence only once before, at smaller degree, in June 1986." With the S&P now at 1173 and Dow at 10,895, what is Bob Prechter's take on this formation. Did it give a false alarm? It would be helpful to get his insight on this.
Let's begin with a paradox -- the one constant in our society is dramatic change. This is the main reason why projecting present conditions into the future often fails.
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/04/09/Why-Economic-Forecasts-Often-Fail.aspx
The "rare wave formation" described in January Theorist: Did it give a false alarm?
The Januray EW Theorist said: "he third zigzag, wave (Z), is ending with a contracting triangle and a diagonal, as shown in Fig 1. A triangle always precedes the final wave in a sequence, and a diagonal is always an ending wave. It is a rare pleasure to find these two forms adjacent to each other. The EWT documented this occurrence only once before, at smaller degree, in June 1986." With the S&P now at 1173 and Dow at 10,895, what is Bob Prechter's take on this formation. Did it give a false alarm? It would be helpful to get his insight on this.
Daily Update Investment News
Gold May Gain for Second Day as Weaker Dollar Supports Demand
(Bloomberg) -- Gold may advance for a second day on speculation the dollar’s weakness will shore up demand for the precious metal as an alternative asset.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSGGzHhsWV9o
Dollar May Weaken Versus Yen If Yields Drop: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar may weaken against the yen if Treasury two-year note yields continue to decline, according to strategists at Citigroup Inc.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=asUFibSXnPPI
Palladium May Climb to 9-Year High of $620: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Palladium, trading near a 25-month peak, may jump to $620 an ounce, the highest price since June, 2001, in the next few weeks, according to technical analysis by Credit Suisse Group.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a8jgBGjLMKBg
Markets to Trend Upward in Next 2-3 Months: Strategist
Stocks continued to advance for a fifth straight session on Wednesday. Should investors watch out for a possible market correction? Bob Parker from Credit Suisse shared his insights.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36505390
Market's Run Not Done Yet
“I do believe genuinely that this is a real turn,” Cramer said during Wednesday’s Stop Trading!.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36502195
Dow 12,000 By Summer?
Stocks [.SPX 1210.65 13.35 (+1.12%) ] notched a fifth straight day of gains on Wednesday as stronger-than-expected corporate results and March retail sales pushed the S&P 500 past 1,200 for the first time in 18 months.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36506607
Japan, China, Indonesia: Asian Bonds and Currency Preview
(Bloomberg) -- The following events and economic reports may influence trading in Asia’s local bonds and currencies today. Bond yields and exchange rates are from the previous trading session unless stated otherwise. Financial markets in Thailand are closed today for holidays.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSFeNjaiVsMk
Goldman Sachs Sees ‘Expensive’ China Index Futures (Update1)
(Bloomberg) -- China’s stock-index futures will begin trading tomorrow at the “expensive side of fair value” as volumes will be limited, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a9su31TJSdhc
South Korean Exporters’ Stocks to Stay ‘Robust,’ JPMorgan Says
(Bloomberg) -- South Korea’s largest exporters will maintain their “robust” stock market performance amid a global demand recovery and reduced fund withdrawals as investors have few alternatives, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aqW1BWBnA7PM
Stocks to Rally 11% by Year-End, Credit Suisse Strategists Say
(Bloomberg) -- Global stocks may rally a further 11 percent this year, buoyed by positive earnings growth and share buybacks, according to Credit Suisse Group AG, which pushed out its forecast for the start of a bear market to 2011.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a_6iKhUZN2DE
China May Not Raise Rates Before June, State Economist Zhu Says
(Bloomberg) -- China’s central bank may not need to raise benchmark interest rates until the second half of this year after growth in loans and money supply cooled in March, a government economist said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aYG8DhthJOKo
Commodities Rally "Just the Tip of the Iceberg," Tom Lydon Says
With exports rising 55% to $737 million in the first quarter, China surpassed the U.S. as the number one market for polished diamonds from Europe's diamond capital -- Antwerp, Belgium, The Wall Street Journal reports.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/commodities-rally-%22just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg%22-tom-lydon-says-466724.html;_ylt=AuFTVXaRThUltnqk4nWT8qe7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTFhNWZlbWVyBHBvcwM1BHNlYwNzcGVjaWFsRmVhdHVyZXMEc2xrA2NvbW1vZGl0aWVzcg--?tickers=GLD,EEM,GDX,XME,UDN,SLV,PALL&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
(Bloomberg) -- Gold may advance for a second day on speculation the dollar’s weakness will shore up demand for the precious metal as an alternative asset.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSGGzHhsWV9o
Dollar May Weaken Versus Yen If Yields Drop: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar may weaken against the yen if Treasury two-year note yields continue to decline, according to strategists at Citigroup Inc.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=asUFibSXnPPI
Palladium May Climb to 9-Year High of $620: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Palladium, trading near a 25-month peak, may jump to $620 an ounce, the highest price since June, 2001, in the next few weeks, according to technical analysis by Credit Suisse Group.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a8jgBGjLMKBg
Markets to Trend Upward in Next 2-3 Months: Strategist
Stocks continued to advance for a fifth straight session on Wednesday. Should investors watch out for a possible market correction? Bob Parker from Credit Suisse shared his insights.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36505390
Market's Run Not Done Yet
“I do believe genuinely that this is a real turn,” Cramer said during Wednesday’s Stop Trading!.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36502195
Dow 12,000 By Summer?
Stocks [.SPX 1210.65 13.35 (+1.12%) ] notched a fifth straight day of gains on Wednesday as stronger-than-expected corporate results and March retail sales pushed the S&P 500 past 1,200 for the first time in 18 months.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36506607
Japan, China, Indonesia: Asian Bonds and Currency Preview
(Bloomberg) -- The following events and economic reports may influence trading in Asia’s local bonds and currencies today. Bond yields and exchange rates are from the previous trading session unless stated otherwise. Financial markets in Thailand are closed today for holidays.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSFeNjaiVsMk
Goldman Sachs Sees ‘Expensive’ China Index Futures (Update1)
(Bloomberg) -- China’s stock-index futures will begin trading tomorrow at the “expensive side of fair value” as volumes will be limited, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a9su31TJSdhc
South Korean Exporters’ Stocks to Stay ‘Robust,’ JPMorgan Says
(Bloomberg) -- South Korea’s largest exporters will maintain their “robust” stock market performance amid a global demand recovery and reduced fund withdrawals as investors have few alternatives, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aqW1BWBnA7PM
Stocks to Rally 11% by Year-End, Credit Suisse Strategists Say
(Bloomberg) -- Global stocks may rally a further 11 percent this year, buoyed by positive earnings growth and share buybacks, according to Credit Suisse Group AG, which pushed out its forecast for the start of a bear market to 2011.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a_6iKhUZN2DE
China May Not Raise Rates Before June, State Economist Zhu Says
(Bloomberg) -- China’s central bank may not need to raise benchmark interest rates until the second half of this year after growth in loans and money supply cooled in March, a government economist said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aYG8DhthJOKo
Commodities Rally "Just the Tip of the Iceberg," Tom Lydon Says
With exports rising 55% to $737 million in the first quarter, China surpassed the U.S. as the number one market for polished diamonds from Europe's diamond capital -- Antwerp, Belgium, The Wall Street Journal reports.
http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/commodities-rally-%22just-the-tip-of-the-iceberg%22-tom-lydon-says-466724.html;_ylt=AuFTVXaRThUltnqk4nWT8qe7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTFhNWZlbWVyBHBvcwM1BHNlYwNzcGVjaWFsRmVhdHVyZXMEc2xrA2NvbW1vZGl0aWVzcg--?tickers=GLD,EEM,GDX,XME,UDN,SLV,PALL&sec=topStories&pos=8&asset=&ccode=
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Hold Buy IHSG 2838 & 2875 target 2936/2965 stop 2355; Trading Buy 10 Saham
IHSG menunjukkan buying power yang kuat, dalam uptrend channel dalam wave impulse v/5 final untuk target 2.916 high/2,965,selama bertahan diatas 2,875.DJI juga berada di wave v/5 target 11.242 minimal
Update Daily Investment News
Indonesia Stocks to Extend Record Gain, Top Fund Says (Update1)
(Bloomberg) -- Indonesian stocks, the second-best performer among Asia’s major markets this year, will gain as foreigners resume purchases on speculation first-quarter profit may beat estimates, the nation’s top-ranked mutual fund said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aJM53iOoFNWE
Rupiah Gains 5 Times More Than Yuan on Revaluation (Update2)
(Bloomberg) -- The best currency to own when China lets the yuan appreciate won’t be the yuan, if history is any guide. It’s everything from South Korea’s won to Singapore’s dollar and Indonesia’s rupiah.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6RQe7L0gB.U
Rupiah to Drop on Relative-Strength Signal: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s rupiah may decline after a technical gauge signaled its rally will stall, according to Forecast Singapore Pte.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ayzR.zRr5Spo
Bank Indonesia could lower its policy rate stance that currently stood up at 6.5% should inflation continue to decline according to BI Deputy Governor Hartadi A Sarwono.
Asia Needs Higher Interest Rates to Avert Bubbles, ADB Says
(Bloomberg) -- Asia needs to start raising interest rates to prevent inflation from accelerating and avert the formation of asset bubbles as the region’s economies recover from the global crisis, the Asian Development Bank said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aBjPPf8n7LAA
Stocks May Erase 2010 Gains as Investors Cut Cash, Merrill Says
(Bloomberg) -- Global equity markets may erase gains made so far this year after investors piled back into equities in April and reduced cash levels, a BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research report showed.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=alG8omNZbluw
Philippine Stocks May Drop on ‘Doji’ Candle: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Philippine benchmark stock index may drop after a “doji” formation in its candle chart yesterday, preventing the measure from closing above its 3,300 so-called resistance level, Accord Capital Equities Corp. said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aMvdpjBYqL_w
Oil May Chart New 2010 High ‘Within a Week’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil has regained upward momentum after a five-day decline and will set its highest price for this year at near $88 a barrel in as little as a week, National Australia Bank Ltd. said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aPQVdRLyzMys
U.S. Two-Year Yields to Drop Versus Canada: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury yields will slide to a six-year low relative to Canada’s interest rates, according to Citigroup Inc., citing technical indicators.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aIhQopZiw7AU
Euro to Rally to 11-Week High, Citi Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The euro will probably rally to an 11-week high against the dollar after closing above the “neckline” at $1.3591 in a technical double-bottom formation, according to strategists at Citigroup Inc.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=alx83J2G3RaI
S&P 500 Backed by Most Momentum Since 1986: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks almost have the most momentum since 1986. The 14-day relative strength index for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has exceeded 65 since March 5, the longest stretch since 1995, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Today would mark the 27th consecutive day, the most in 24 years.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aOaYFowFvRm4
Oil to Set New 2010 Record, Barclays Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil will probably exceed this year’s peak of $87 a barrel and may rise as high as $94 in New York, according to technical analysis by Barclays Capital.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0tgynIaQmb0
Yen’s 3-Year Rally to End on Support Breaks: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The yen may snap a three-year rally against the dollar as it drops toward key so-called support levels, signaling Japan’s currency may flip into a long-term cycle of declines, Shinko Research Institute Ltd. said, citing trading patterns.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aROEiB3mlHNk
Crude Oil Set to Challenge $88.25 Barrier: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil in New York may challenge resistance starting at $88.25 a barrel in the “medium term,” according to technical analysis by Newedge Group.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aiTSgIIRU9G8
Buy Hong Kong China Index Call Spread for Yuan Gains, BofA Says
(Bloomberg) -- Investors should buy a call spread on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index to profit from potential gains in the yuan, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aLDfqQTLew1s
Winning Strategy for U.S. Stocks: Buy on Monday, Sell on Friday
April 12 (Bloomberg) -- On Wall Street, Monday is the best day of the week. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 12 percent since Oct. 9 through the end of last week, reaching an 18-month high.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2b1xHSabZIk
Singapore Unexpectedly Revalues Currency on Growth (Update3)
(Bloomberg) -- Singapore unexpectedly revalued its currency, triggering the biggest gain in a year, after the government raised forecasts for economic growth and inflation.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=arVjQ82mNi2Q
(Bloomberg) -- Indonesian stocks, the second-best performer among Asia’s major markets this year, will gain as foreigners resume purchases on speculation first-quarter profit may beat estimates, the nation’s top-ranked mutual fund said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aJM53iOoFNWE
Rupiah Gains 5 Times More Than Yuan on Revaluation (Update2)
(Bloomberg) -- The best currency to own when China lets the yuan appreciate won’t be the yuan, if history is any guide. It’s everything from South Korea’s won to Singapore’s dollar and Indonesia’s rupiah.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6RQe7L0gB.U
Rupiah to Drop on Relative-Strength Signal: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s rupiah may decline after a technical gauge signaled its rally will stall, according to Forecast Singapore Pte.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ayzR.zRr5Spo
Bank Indonesia could lower its policy rate stance that currently stood up at 6.5% should inflation continue to decline according to BI Deputy Governor Hartadi A Sarwono.
Asia Needs Higher Interest Rates to Avert Bubbles, ADB Says
(Bloomberg) -- Asia needs to start raising interest rates to prevent inflation from accelerating and avert the formation of asset bubbles as the region’s economies recover from the global crisis, the Asian Development Bank said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aBjPPf8n7LAA
Stocks May Erase 2010 Gains as Investors Cut Cash, Merrill Says
(Bloomberg) -- Global equity markets may erase gains made so far this year after investors piled back into equities in April and reduced cash levels, a BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research report showed.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=alG8omNZbluw
Philippine Stocks May Drop on ‘Doji’ Candle: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Philippine benchmark stock index may drop after a “doji” formation in its candle chart yesterday, preventing the measure from closing above its 3,300 so-called resistance level, Accord Capital Equities Corp. said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aMvdpjBYqL_w
Oil May Chart New 2010 High ‘Within a Week’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil has regained upward momentum after a five-day decline and will set its highest price for this year at near $88 a barrel in as little as a week, National Australia Bank Ltd. said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aPQVdRLyzMys
U.S. Two-Year Yields to Drop Versus Canada: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. Treasury yields will slide to a six-year low relative to Canada’s interest rates, according to Citigroup Inc., citing technical indicators.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aIhQopZiw7AU
Euro to Rally to 11-Week High, Citi Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The euro will probably rally to an 11-week high against the dollar after closing above the “neckline” at $1.3591 in a technical double-bottom formation, according to strategists at Citigroup Inc.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=alx83J2G3RaI
S&P 500 Backed by Most Momentum Since 1986: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks almost have the most momentum since 1986. The 14-day relative strength index for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has exceeded 65 since March 5, the longest stretch since 1995, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Today would mark the 27th consecutive day, the most in 24 years.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aOaYFowFvRm4
Oil to Set New 2010 Record, Barclays Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil will probably exceed this year’s peak of $87 a barrel and may rise as high as $94 in New York, according to technical analysis by Barclays Capital.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0tgynIaQmb0
Yen’s 3-Year Rally to End on Support Breaks: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The yen may snap a three-year rally against the dollar as it drops toward key so-called support levels, signaling Japan’s currency may flip into a long-term cycle of declines, Shinko Research Institute Ltd. said, citing trading patterns.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aROEiB3mlHNk
Crude Oil Set to Challenge $88.25 Barrier: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil in New York may challenge resistance starting at $88.25 a barrel in the “medium term,” according to technical analysis by Newedge Group.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aiTSgIIRU9G8
Buy Hong Kong China Index Call Spread for Yuan Gains, BofA Says
(Bloomberg) -- Investors should buy a call spread on the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index to profit from potential gains in the yuan, according to Bank of America Corp.’s Merrill Lynch unit.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aLDfqQTLew1s
Winning Strategy for U.S. Stocks: Buy on Monday, Sell on Friday
April 12 (Bloomberg) -- On Wall Street, Monday is the best day of the week. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 12 percent since Oct. 9 through the end of last week, reaching an 18-month high.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2b1xHSabZIk
Singapore Unexpectedly Revalues Currency on Growth (Update3)
(Bloomberg) -- Singapore unexpectedly revalued its currency, triggering the biggest gain in a year, after the government raised forecasts for economic growth and inflation.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=arVjQ82mNi2Q
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