May 4, 2010: Traditional bull market affects

The traditional affects of an expanding economy and a bull market have finally reached the yield curve. After nine months of positive GDP growth in the US economy and over 12 months of steady advances in the S&P 500, the yield curve is beginning to flatten. This action normally starts within the first 12 to 18 months of a bull market and its presence now is right on schedule.

Yield curves gradually steepen during economic contractions and bear markets. Central banks cut interest rates in an attempt to help ward off recessions and help stimulate the economy. As an economy bottoms and begins to recover, short-term rates slowly start to rise before long-term rates. This action gradually begins the long process of flattening the curve. Central banks periodically increase interest rates to help maintain longer growth and curb the risk of future inflation. By the end of a bull market and near a top in the business cycle, the yield curve is basically flat (Chart 1). As GDP stalls and begins to fall (Chart 2), the process of rate reduction and steepening of the yield curve starts again.

This standard movement of flattening of the yield curve should help reinforce the idea that this current upward rise in the S&P 500 is not just a bear market bounce but rather the the early phase of a longer bull market.
Bottom line: The action of the yield curve and the movement of the stock market is a traditional pattern. Short-term yields can be expected to slowing advance now and continue throughout the present business cycle and bull market.

Investment approach: Long-term investors should recognize the important significance of the yield curve to the bull market. This correlation should help investors maintain a positive approach to equities over the course of this anticipated 2009-2013/14 equity advance. The yield curve should also act as an early warning to the next peak in the stock market. Flat yield curves generally develop 8 to12 months before the crest of a bull market.

Donald W. Dony, FCSI, MFTA

Crash & Burn still continue, watch out for 9-10% correction from 2996
record high, before bounce for a correction B (revised before analysis) .........The 1st intraday rebound to 2.806/2.845/2.873, after failed to thrust strong support 2.728 (low 2.746; -100 p). If closed above range 2.806-2.845 (potential hammer candle daily, MACD 5 minutes in positive teritory for the 1st time since 2.963), entry market (Buy back) for a rebound tommorow. Good Luck.

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BHIT Raup Untung Rp153 Miliar di Q1-2010
PT Bhakti Investama Tbk (BHIT) mencetak untung sekitar Rp153 miliar pada triwulan I-2010, ketimbang periode yang sama 2009 menderita rugi sekitar Rp124 miliar.

BEI Awasi Pergerakan Waran Bank Capital
BEI tengah memantau pergerakan waran PT Bank Capital Tbk (BACA) lantaran melonjak 250% ke Rp70 pada perdagangan Rabu (5/5).

Investor Berspekulasi dengan Rumor
Saham KBRI tiba-tiba bergerak tak karuan. Kabarnya, sebelum diambil investor Finlandia, saham pabrik kertas ini akan diangkat ke level Rp300 atau naik 200% lebih.
Kerugian Benakat Melejit Hingga 769,68% di Q1-2010
BIPI mencatatkan kenaikan kerugian bersih sekitar 769,68% menjadi Rp49,207 pada triwulan I-2010, dibandingkan periode yang sama 2009 hanya Rp5,658 miliar.

Pengembang Singapura Minat Moderland
AA Land Ptd dikabarkan bakal menggandeng bank lokal guna menopang keinginan PT Moderland Realty Tbk (MDLN) untuk mengembangkan perumahan di Bekasi dan Tangerang.

    * BBCA: Bagikan Dividen 39% dari Laba Bersih 2009
    * LSIP : Produksi crude palm oil Lonsum naik 10%
    * PTBA: Tetap Dapat Upgrade Saham Hingga 30% di BTR
    * CPRO: Belum Pertimbangkan Investor Baru
    * HITS: Penjualan Anjlok, Rugi Usaha Rp27,35 Miliar
    * LPKR: Peminat Obligasi Global Naik
    * SMGR: Akan Bangun 4 Pabrik Kemasan
    * SMRA: Kantongi Pinjaman Bank Rp 400 Miliar
    * NISP: Perkirakan Aset Naik 25% Jadi Rp46 Triliun
    * KOIN: Penjualan Naik 38,5%

AA Land Pte Singapura dikabarkan bakal menggandeng bank lokal guna menopang minat PT Modernlan Realty Tbk (MDLN) untuk mengembangkan rumah di Bekasi dan Tangerang. Menurut kabar, aksi pengembang tersebut karena tertarik pada saham perseroan. Saham MDLN konon ditawar pada harga buku (book value) Rp335 per saham.

PT Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI) dikabarkan sukses menjual 62% unit apartement di satu menara yang diluncurkan Maret 2010 dan berniat meluncurkan menara baru bulan Mei ini. Kedua proyek itu akan meningkatkan penjualan 17% jadi Rp1,6 triliu pada 2010, dan sampai April telah mencapai Rp617 miliar. Nilai wajar sahamnya di kisaran Rp310-486.

Perusahaan makanan Siangpuran, EO's Holding, dan sebuah perusahaan asal Hong Kong dikabarkan tengah memjajakio PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk (AISA).

PT Humpuss Intermoda Transportasi Tbk (HITS) mencetak keuntungan sekitar Rp13,418 miliar pada triwulan I-2010, dibandingkan periode yang sama 2009 merugi sekitar Rp55,539 miliar.

BI: Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Kuartal II Diatas 5,7%
Bank Indonesia (BI) memperkirakan pertumbuhan ekonomi pada kuartal II tahun ini akan diatas 5,7 %, lebih tinggi dibanding pertumbuhan ekonomi kuartal I tahun ini.

Sumber: Inilah.com, detikfinance.com

Nilai tukar rupiah kembali terperosok karena hantaman berbagai sentimen negatif. Selain karena krisis utang di Eropa, rupiah juga tertekan oleh mundurnya Sri Mulyani sebagai Menteri Keuangan. Pada perdagangan Kamis (6/5/2010), rupiah dibuka merosot ke level 9.200 per dolar AS, dibandingkan penutupan sebelumnya di level 9,115 per dolar AS.

Seolah kompak dengan pergerakan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dan rupiah, indeks Surat Utang Negara (SUN) ikut rontok. Kemarin (5/5), Himpunan Pedagang Surat Utang Negara (Himdasun) mencatat indeks SUN melorot 0,94% ke level 101,13 dibanding penutupan sehari sebelumnya yang di posisi 102,09.

Daily Forex Technicals |   Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.2780 and 1.2743(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.2708, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.2690. Break of the latter would result in 1.2672. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.2647. Continuation will give 1.2613.
Today's resistance: - 1.2895, 1.2938 and 1.2967 (main). Break would give 1.2988, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3016. Break of the latter would result in 1.3039. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3061. Continuation will give 1.3094 and 1.3136.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 93.54, 93.12 and 92.70(main). Break would bring 92.46, where correction is possible. Then 92.14, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 91.63. If a strong impulse, we would see 91.46. Continuation would give 91.14 and 90.91.
Today's resistance: - 94.50, 94.73, 95.16 and 95.41(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 95.74, where also a correction may be. Then 95.91. If a strong impulse, we would see 96.30. Continuation will give 96.52.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 10853.22 and 10826.40(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 10801.13, where correction also can be. Then follows 10775.16. Be there a strong impulse, we shall see 10746.17. Continuation will bring 10732.68.
Today's resistance: - 10991.22, 11035.28 and 11059.55(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 11076.20, where a correction may happen. Then follows 1109.37, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 11134.50. Continuation would bring 11171.18 and 11187.11.

Nilai tukar rupiah kembali terperosok karena hantaman berbagai sentimen negatif. Selain karena krisis utang di Eropa, rupiah juga tertekan oleh mundurnya Sri Mulyani sebagai Menteri Keuangan. Pada perdagangan Kamis (6/5/2010), rupiah dibuka merosot ke level 9.200 per dolar AS, dibandingkan penutupan sebelumnya di level 9,115 per dolar AS.

Seolah kompak dengan pergerakan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dan rupiah, indeks Surat Utang Negara (SUN) ikut rontok. Kemarin (5/5), Himpunan Pedagang Surat Utang Negara (Himdasun) mencatat indeks SUN melorot 0,94% ke level 101,13 dibanding penutupan sehari sebelumnya yang di posisi 102,09.

Daily Forex Technicals |   Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.2780 and 1.2743(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.2708, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.2690. Break of the latter would result in 1.2672. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.2647. Continuation will give 1.2613.
Today's resistance: - 1.2895, 1.2938 and 1.2967 (main). Break would give 1.2988, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.3016. Break of the latter would result in 1.3039. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.3061. Continuation will give 1.3094 and 1.3136.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 93.54, 93.12 and 92.70(main). Break would bring 92.46, where correction is possible. Then 92.14, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 91.63. If a strong impulse, we would see 91.46. Continuation would give 91.14 and 90.91.
Today's resistance: - 94.50, 94.73, 95.16 and 95.41(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 95.74, where also a correction may be. Then 95.91. If a strong impulse, we would see 96.30. Continuation will give 96.52.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 10853.22 and 10826.40(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 10801.13, where correction also can be. Then follows 10775.16. Be there a strong impulse, we shall see 10746.17. Continuation will bring 10732.68.
Today's resistance: - 10991.22, 11035.28 and 11059.55(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 11076.20, where a correction may happen. Then follows 1109.37, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 11134.50. Continuation would bring 11171.18 and 11187.11.

Rupiah to Fall 7.6% Versus Yen on Fibonacci: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The rupiah may slide 7.6 percent against the yen in the next two weeks to the lowest level since March 4 after Indonesia’s currency failed to hold a key level of resistance, according to Okasan Securities Co.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aq.02Tk83kZ8

Yuan Forwards Set to Weaken, SocGen Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- China’s yuan forwards may depreciate from a one-month low after trading weaker than their 200-day moving average for the first time since March 2009, according to Societe Generale SA.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aFwzDgPvvBb0

Mowat Says JPMorgan `Underweight' China, Brazil Stocks: Video
(Bloomberg) -- Adrian Mowat, JPMorgan Chase & Co.'s chief Asian and emerging-market strategist, talks with Bloomberg's Susan Li and Paul Gordon about his investment strategy for global stocks.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aD3Ubw1r8ICQ

Citigroup Sees 15% Emerging Stocks Gains; Greece, China Risks
(Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market stocks will rebound from the slump that erased 2010 gains yesterday and end the year 15 percent higher as a global economic recovery drives earnings growth, according to Citigroup Inc.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aIfWwKSc6zQM

India Stocks Face Greater Inflation Risk Than China, HSBC Says
(Bloomberg) -- Rising consumer prices make India’s stock market riskier than China’s, said Garry Evans, HSBC Holdings Plc’s global head of equity strategy. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a2KMTD554Qao

Rupiah Falls Most Since November as Funds Dump Stocks, Bonds
(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s rupiah dropped the most since November on signs the debt crisis in Europe is prompting overseas investors to sell the country’s stocks and bonds.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aVToQ8pgUWDE

Get Out of Stocks and Into Bonds: Portfolio Manager
Stocks opened lower on Wednesday, following a selloff in the prior session, as Moody's put Portugal's debt rating on review. Barry James, president of James Advantage Funds and Neil Hennessy, portfolio manager and chief investment officer at Hennessy Funds shared their insights.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36961753

When to Expect 10-15% Correction: Strategist
The CBOE volatility index (VIX), widely considered the best gauge of fear in the market, spiked more than 20 percent on Tuesday to top 25, its highest level in almost two months. What does the level imply for the markets—and what should investors expect going forward? Mark Arbeter, chief technical strategist at Standard & Poor’s, shared his insights.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36941071

Halftime: Wednesday's Key Level In The S&P
Stocks [.SPX  1165.87    -7.73  (-0.66%)   ] pared the worst of their losses, around lunchtime Wednesday, with buyers stepping into financials [XLK  22.93    -0.10  (-0.43%)   ] and consumer staples [XLY  33.99    -0.4925  (-1.43%)   ] cheered by new data on employment which showed the U.S. economy grew private sector jobs for the first time since January 2008.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36965092

Cramer: Avoid Hot Stocks for Now
“This is a General Mills market,” Cramer said during Wednesday’s Stop Trading!.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36963161

European Union, Currency Are Headed for Collapse: Gartman
The current European debt crisis likely will not end until the euro collapses as a currency and takes the entire European Union with it, said Dennis Gartman, hedge fund manager and author of "The Gartman Letter."
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36961257

Europe's Undervalued, but I'm Not Buying: Barton Biggs
Investments in debt-stricken Europe are "undervalued," "unloved" and "now oversold," Barton Biggs, the managing partner at Traxis Partners hedge fund, told CNBC Wednesday. But he's still not investing in Europe.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36969174

The Correction Has Started: Strategist
The correction in stock markets has already started, Philippe Gijsels, head of research at BNP Paribas Fortis Global Markets, told CNBC Wednesday.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36865376

Closed IHSG Buy 2.965/2.886 at 2.811. (-154p-75p). Cancel buy 2.800/2.811. Buy 2.730, 2.780 & buy break 2.811 target 2.868, stop 30p

Track Record IHSG: 21 Recommendations (16 profits: 1 break even: 4 loss) = (+20p+45p+73p+53+60p+45p+63p+0p+27p+50p-20p+13p
+40p+45p+40p+29p-30p-154p-75p). Total : 603 point - 259 point = Net +344 points. Average 16.38 point/trade. P = Point. Disclaimer on. 

Elliott Wave: DJIA: Rally Killer on the Loose?

How sentiment extremes mark trend reversals.
Here's something they don't teach you in Economics 101: Too many bulls can kill a rally.
Conversely, too many bears can stop a bear market. It sounds paradoxical, but it's true: When market sentiment gets to an extreme on either side -- pessimistic or optimistic -- more often than not, the trend is near its reversal.
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/05/03/DJIA-Rally-Killer-on-the-Loose.aspx






















One Year Later: Is The Bear Really Dead?
The optimistic extreme we've been waiting for has finally arrived
The two columns below compare quotes from news stories in March-April 2009, vs. quotes from today's news:
Spring 2009:
"Dow 5,000? A Bearish Possibility?" (Wall Street Journal)
"The bear market is tightening its grip. No one is taking a back seat approach. Everyone is selling. We're collapsing in on ourselves." (New York Times)
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/05/03/One-Year-Later-Is-The-Bear-Really-Dead.aspx


Brushed Off the Shoulder -- Then What For Stocks?
See A Pattern That's Part of A Bigger Picture
The markets are like a purebred that no one can train. The S&P 500 won't respond to your whistle. Prices don't go up if you offer a treat. So there's no doubt that markets are uncontrollable. But -- even an untrained dog will follow patterns of behavior.
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/04/29/Brushed-Off-the-Shoulder----Then-What-For-Stocks.aspx

Does "Big Picture" Mean "Distant Future"?
With Elliott, you can simultaneously track several trends on different time frames.
New Elliott wavers can have the impression that a "big picture" Elliott wave forecast only applies to the distant future and is irrelevant to short-term market action.
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/04/30/Does--Big-Picture--Mean--Distant-Future-.aspx