Monday, May 24, 2010

Van Tharp - You are a Strategic Trader

Trading Strengths:
• Originality and drive to be your best; willingness to follow your ideas through to completion.
• Quickly see patterns and possibilities, with the ability to rapidly hypothesize
and generate low-risk trading ideas.
• You could probably generate a trading business plan and trading systems quite easily and naturally.

Trading Chalenges:

• You may be so logical that you don’t recognize when emotions are causing you to self-destruct.
• You have a strong desire to be right, even to the extent of perfectionism. This might cause you to never actually trade because you continually are trying to develop or buy better systems.
• You may be susceptible to the loss trap. Therefore, you may not honor
your stops because you want to be right about your trades.

Sunday, May 23, 2010

Rekomendasi & Strategy IHSG 24-05

Indeks diperkirakan mengalami kesulitan untuk menguat, karena tingginya volatilty di saat penurunan, DMI menunjukkan selling power yang kuat, MACD bearish, meski stochastic yang oversold dan candle three black crows seharusnya berpotensi menahan laju penurunan dan berpeluang mengalami TECHNICAL REBOUND yang bersifat SHORT LIVED (wave 4/C). Kondisi di negara Eropa akan makin memburuk karena pembayaran hutang Yunani, diikuti penurunan rating kredit negara di Eropa (the next target is Irlandia & UK), krisis politik di Thailand dan Korea dapat mendorong fund asing keluar dari emerging market (EPFR menunjukkan investor outlflow $ 12 miliar dari negara emerging di pekan lalu, terbesar dalam 2 tahun), belum adanya sentimen positif dari dalam negeri dan kekhawatiran kenaikan suku bunga BI (Malaysia telah menaikkan suku bunga 25 bsp pada 2 pekan lalu).

Profit +0p + 70p. @IHSG: Target 2.660 stop almost done, Already Buy 2.670 & hold Buy 2.690 target 2740/60 stop di 2.675
Sell 2.660 & 2.720 target 2.580/2.550 stop 30p, buy 2.530 target 2.750 stop 30p.

Buy on weakness: banking (BBRI, BBCA, BMRI, BDMN), BUMI, BTEL, PGAS, INDF, MEDC, TLKM, KLBF, JSMR, LSIP, ADRO

Rekomendasi 19-05: 
All done today (20/05)
Closed Hold ASRI: Buy 175-180 target 200, stop dibawah 165.
Hold BBNI: Buy 2.300-2.350 target 2.450-2.500, stop loss 2.000.
Hold MEDC: 2.850-2.900 target 3.100 stop loss, 2.600, buy breakout 3.125 target 3.400.
Closed Hold ADRO: Rounding TOP, trend bearish (MACD), Bear Flag, Trading Buy 1.950 target 2025/2.050, stop 1.850
Buy back BUMI 2.050/2.100 stop 1.975. Closed Hold BUMI (21/05): Head & Shoulder with symmetrical triangle, neckline di 2.250, trend bearish, Trading buy 2.300-2.350 target 2.500, stop loss 2.100.
Hold Buy 7.300 target 7.500 stop 7.100. Closed Hold TLKM: Buy 7.550-7.600 target 7.800, stop dibawah 7.450. 

Hold INCO: Sell 4.200 & then Buy 3.925 target 4.500, stop loss 3.500. 
Closed Hold KLBF: Buy 1.920 target 2.000, stop 1.850
Hold DILD: Buy on weakness 1.030/1060 target 1140 stop 990.

PNLF: Sell, namun Buy 220 & breakout 260 target 300/350 (med-term 500), stop loss 30 rp
RAJA: Sell on rally hingga 880 target 7020, buy 770 & breakout 890 target 1.000. stop dibawah 700.

Track Record IHSG: 32 Recommendations (24 profits: 2 break even: 4 loss) = (+20p+45p+73p+53+60p+45p+63p+0p+27p+50p-20p+13p+40p+45p+40p+29p-30p-154p-75p+80p+26p+0p+28p+80p+62p+53p+20p+0p+70p). Total : Net +872 points = Average 27.25 point.

BNI Securities: Top 20 Saham Indonesia & Indeks Global - Counting TD Wave

BNI Securities TA Analysis:
http://www.ziddu.com/download/9980256/IndonesiaGlobalMarket14Mei2010.pdf.html

Update Daily Investment News

Goods Orders, Home Sales Probably Climbed: U.S. Economy Preview
(Bloomberg) -- Orders for factory goods, sales of new and existing homes and consumer spending probably climbed in April, indicating the U.S. recovery was strengthening before the European debt crisis rattled global financial markets, economists said reports this week may show.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aAEgKSfj5dUg&pos=1

Week Ahead: Outlook for Stocks Volatile, with Headwinds
Choppy, with political headwinds and chillier credit conditions, is the forecast for stocks in the week ahead.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37284233

Buy on Friday, Sell on Monday — Then Go Away?
Germany's Bundestag (Germany's lower house) and Bundesrat (upper house) approved the $1 trillion effort to stabilize the euro, though the opposition Social Democrats voted to abstain. The German contribution will be about $183 billion, as well as a $22.4 billion euro contribution to Greece. is expected to approve it later today.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37273929

Stocks to Tumble Another 20%, Cash the Safest Place: Roubini
Stocks are likely to continue their aggressive decline and shed another 20 percent in value as the world economy weakens, noted economist Nouriel Roubini told CNBC.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37259541

Commodities Have Peaked, Commerzbank Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Commodities probably have peaked and have limited scope to rebound, according to technical analysis by Commerzbank AG.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4FurLACKNwg

Euro Gains Most Since September as Traders Exit Bets on Decline
(Bloomberg) -- The euro rose the most in eight months against the dollar amid speculation traders who have bet on its decline during Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis had to buy back the currency as it strengthened to a one-week high.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aifUGugH7RkM

CFTC Set to Limit Oil Speculation With Senate Backing (Update1)
 (Bloomberg) -- The top U.S. commodity regulator is poised to impose new rules on oil speculators as Congress and the European Commission attempt to rein in trading in the $615 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aY34nVEE1rzk

MSCI Asia Ex-Japan Index May Fall 15-20% From Current Level: RBS
(Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks may fall a further 15 percent to 20 percent from current levels, according to Emil Wolter, head of Asian regional strategy at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Hong Kong.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a_azBLiCDebs

Stock Funds See Biggest Exit in Two Years, EPFR Says (Update3)
(Bloomberg) -- Investors withdrew some $12 billion from U.S. and European equity funds in the week to May 19, the most in almost two years, on concern Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis will slow global growth, EPFR Global said in an e-mail.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aj4BrMncYi0Q

Futures Bets for Euro Decline Against Dollar Drop From Record
(Bloomberg) -- Futures traders pared bets against the euro versus the dollar from a record as widening price swings prompted a reduction of euro-funded investments in higher-yielding countries such as Australia.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aK4RoV.w_Ewo

Halftime: Is Market Way Oversold?
Once again, technicals appear to be driving this rough and tumble market with the S&P .SPX falling below the level reached during the "flash crash" earlier in the session but then bouncing back and muscling its way into positive territory.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37276542

Stocks to Come Back With a Vengeance: Strategist
Markets are significantly undervalued in terms of corporate earnings, and stocks are set to bounce back with a vengeance, Christian Blaabjerg, Strategist at Saxo Bank, told CNBC Friday.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37271249

Oil & Gold Next Week: Video
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1500505448&play=1

Markets Will 'Double This Decline' Into Year-End
Stocks erased early losses on Friday, defying market expectations for another big selloff, but struggled to hold gains. What should investors expect from the markets going forward? Paul Schatz, president at Heritage Capital, and Dirk Van Dijk, director of research at Zacks Investment Research, discussed their opposing views.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37273781

Odds Favor Correction Over New Bear
Based on 24 declines greater than 10 percent occurring during existing bull markets since 1962, the odds that this latest correction is actually the start of a new bear market are about 38 percent, according to Birinyi Associates. And if it is just a correction, then this is a great buying opportunity, history shows.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37276672

How Low Can the Market Go? Pros Say Slide Hasn't Stopped
With technical barriers continuing to give way and the May 6 "flash-crash" fluke looking like not so much of a fluke anymore, market watchers were left Thursday wondering how much worse things could get.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37255829/

An Undeniably Bullish Signal From The Street
While we don’t have a crystal ball, we have detected an undeniably bullish signal from The Street.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37280797

Should Investors Buy on Gold's Dip?
With gold closing successively lower and well below $1,200 [GCV1  1193.5    -11.40  (-0.95%)   ] an ounce on the Comex for the third straight session, investors are starting to take a hard look at this so-called “
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37278319

Bullish Beginnings Or Dead Cat Bounce
Stocks snapped a three-day losing streak on Friday with the Dow
DJIA making triple digits gains. However it was the action in the S&P that triggered the most chatter.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37276527/

Weekly Fundamental Outlook for Energies and Metals - Oil Weakens when Demand Starts to Pick Up      
ONG Focus - Insights Written by Oil N' Gold
The week started calmly until Germany's Bafin announced Tuesday to temporarily (until March 31, 2011) ban naked short sales of debt securities of Eurozone countries admitted on a domestic exchange to trading on the regulated market. It also temporarily prohibited CDS in which the reference liability is at least also a liability of a euro zone country and is not used to hedge default risks (naked CDS). In addition, Bafin banned short sales on 10 largest German financial institutions (including banks and insurance companies.
http://www.oilngold.com/ong-focus/insights/weekly-fundamental-outlook-for-energies-and-metals-oil-weakens-when-demand-starts-to-pick-up-2010052212801/

Gold Weekly Technical Outlook      
ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's fall from 1249.7 extends further to as low as 1166 last week but lost downside moment as it hit 1170.7 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1124.3 to 1249.7 at 1172.2). Initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway trading should be seen around 1170.7 first. On the upside, break of 1206.6 minor resistance will suggest that pull back from 1249.7 has completed and flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting this high. However, note that firm break of 1170.7 will argue that whole rise from 1044.5 is completed and will turn outlook bearish for 1124.3 support next.In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1249.7 is deep, gold is still holding on to 1170.7 cluster support as well as 55 days EMA (now at 1163). Hence there is no change in the bullish view yet and the long term up trend is still in favor to continue after completing the current pull back. Break of 1249.7 will target 100% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340 next. However, note that sustained trading below 55 EMA will opens up a few bearish possibilities. The least bearish case is that fall from 1249.7 is the third leg of the three wave consolidation from 1227.5 and would target a retest on 1044.5 support next. In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 1044.5 key support holds.

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil dived to as low as 64.24 last week but formed a short term bottom there and turned sideway. Further consolidations would be seen initially this week and stronger recovery might be seen to 38.2% retracement of 87.15 to 64.24 at 72.99. However, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement at 78.39 and bring fall resumption. Below 64.24 will target 60 psychological level next, which is close to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18. In the bigger picture, the break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish. In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall fro 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.

Friday, May 21, 2010

Laporan Saham Indonesia 21-05

Bapepam: IHSG Turun Karena Sentimen Global
Badan Pengawas Pasar Modal Lembaga Keuangan (Bapepam-LK) menilai penurunan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) karena sentimen global.

DOID Batalkan Akuisisi Berau Gara-gara BUMI?
PT Delta Dunia Makmur (DOID) membatalkan rencana akuisisi Berau Coal. Hal ini disinyalir terkait tertundanya aksi korporasi PT Bumi Resources (BUMI). Benarkah?

Bank ICB Bumiputera Rencana 'Rights Issue'
PT Bank ICB Bumiputera Tbk akan melakukan penawaran umum terbatas II kepada para pemegang saham dengan hak memesan efek terlebih dahulu.

CPRO Berhasil Tekan Kerugian 47%
PT Central Proteinaprima Tbk (CPRO) sepanjang tahun 2009 menekan kerugian sekitar 47% menjadi Rp217,17 miliar dari tahun sebelumnya Rp407,18 miliar.

Hasil Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham Tahunan (RUPST) PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF) menyetujui pembagian dividen tunai 2009 sebesar Rp93 per lembar saham.

Anak usaha PT Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk (INDF) yaitu PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur berencana melakukan penawaran saham umum ke publik pada kuartal keempat 2010.

Bank Indonesia (BI) mengakui, saat ini nilai tukar rupiah terus mengalami tekanan akibat masih munculnya ketidakpastian soal krisis utang di Eropa. Saat ini rupiah menyentuh posisi Rp 9.320-9.330 per dolar AS.

IHSG Berpeluang Anjlok Hingga ke Level 2.450-2.550
Krisis likuiditas yang melanda kreditur besar seperti Jerman, Inggris, Perancis dan AS ikut mengguncang Bursa Indonesia yang berpeluang turun hingga ke level 2.450-2.550. Rupiah melemah ke Rp 9.365 saat ini.

Bursa Asia 'Nyungsep' Dilanda Gelombang Aksi Jual
Pasar Asia Jumat (21/5) jatuh menyusul nyungsepnya Wall Street. Gelombang menjual datang di tengah kekhawatiran bahwa krisis utang Eropa bisa menyebar ke seluruh dunia.

IHSG Berpeluang Anjlok Hingga ke Level 2.450-2.550
Krisis likuiditas yang melanda kreditur besar seperti Jerman, Inggris, Perancis dan AS ikut mengguncang Bursa Indonesia yang berpeluang turun hingga ke level 2.450-2.550.

Antara Bakrie, Cahyadi & Bambang Tri
Bakrieland disebut-sebut akan membeli Bukit Centul. Kabarnya, hasil penjualan perusahaan properti itu akan dipakai untuk melunasi utang-utang Bambang Trihatmodjo.

10 Menit Perdagangan, IHSG Anjlok ke 2.595,38
Baru 10 menit perdagangan Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) Jumat (21/5) rontok 98,87 poin atau turun 3,67% ke level 2.595,38.

Panin Life (PNLF) berencana melepas seluruh kepemilikannya pada Bank Panin (PNBN) atau sebesar 46%. Reuters melaporkan Australia & New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) dikabarkan akan membeli keseluruhan saham yang dilepas PNLF.

PT Berau Coal Energy merencanakan akan melakukan Initial Public Offering (IPO) pada Juli atau Agustus 2010.

PT Bakrieland Development Tbk (ELTY) memastikan akan menerbitkan 33,931 miliar saham baru dengan Hak Memesan Efek Terlebih Dahulu (HMETD) alias rights issue seniai Rp 5,429 triliun.

    * BNGA: Naikkan Proyeksi PDB Ke 6,1%
    * BEKS: Recapital Suntikkan Dana Rp 1,5 T Ke Bank Eksekutif
    * CTRS: UC Apartemen Ciputra Surabaya Terjual 90%
    * BDMN: Mediasi Capai Titik Terang
    * BBTN: Jadwal Pembagian Dividen Tunai Tahun Buku 2009
    * BEKS: Recapital Kuasai 85,7% Saham Bank Eksekutif
    * ELTY: Right Issue Rp5,42 Triliun
    * TRUB: Dapat Proyek Soros US$16 Juta
    * AUTO: Naikan Capex Untuk Tambah Produksi
    * ETWA: Subsidi Biodiesel Pacu Industri Pacu Industri
    * IPO: Berau Energy Siap IPO pada 2H10
    * IPO: Sari Roti Tawarkan Harga Rp1.250-1.500.

Hari ini (21/5), cum dividen tunai Bank Danamon Tbk (BDMN) Rp 90,97 per saham Ex dividen (24 Mei 2010).

PT Bank Mega Tbk berencana akan mengakuisisi salah satu bank swasta. Bank swasta yangs edang dilirik perseroan yaitu Bank Capital. Dikabarkan Bank Mega akan menjadikan Bank Capital menjadi bank Mega Syariah. Pada perdagangan saham kemarin, saham Bank Mega ditutup di kisaran Rp2.500 atau naik 100 poin.

PT Asia Natural Resources Tbk (ASIA) dikabarkan akan menjalin kerjasama dengan investor strategis dari Singapura. Perseroan juga akan mendapatkan ijin penambangan di kabupaten Bombana, Sulawesi Tenggara dengan konsensi lahan yang akan digarap seluas 37.213 hektar. Dengan kabar tersebut saham ASIA menarik untuk diakumulasi.

PT Davomas Tbk (DAVO) melakukan restrukrisasi utang yang akan dilakukan tahun ini.

Cadangan devisa Indonesia saat ini menyentuh level US$ 77 miliar. Jika dibandingkan dengan akhir April 2010 yang berada di US$ 78,5 miliar, posisi cadangan devisa ini menurun sekitar US$ 1 miliar.

  Maret 2010, Penjualan BISI Turun
sepanjang kuartal I pendapatan BISI turun 11,9% dari Rp 245,8 miliar menjadi Rp 216,4 miliar

  Kuartal I 2010, Laba Bersih JAPFA Naik 111%
Berdasarkan laporan keuangannya, JPFA berhasil membukukan laba bersih Rp 166,35 miliar

  Tiga Pemegang Saham WIKA Jual Saham
Tiga pemegang saham PT Wijaya Karya Tbk (WIKA) menjual saham mereka, yakni Tonny Warsono, Soepomo dan Pontas Tambunan

RAJA Akan Akuisisi 3 Perusahaan Energi
PT Rukun Raharja Tbk (RAJA) menegaskan akan mengakuisisi 3 perusahaan energi.

Sumber: Detikfinance.com (market flash), inilah.com, kontan

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