BWPT: Med-Term target 1.400, Long-Term 2.000, Risk below 800
Monday, October 11, 2010
Agri: La Nina's Effects - BISI vs LSIP vs SGRO vs BWPT
BISI: Target Med-Term 3.950 (3), Long-Term 5.450 (5), risk below 2.000 (trendline support)
LSIP: Short-term 11300, Med-Term 15.400, Long Term 20.300, Risk below 9.600
SGRO
BWPT: Med-Term target 1.400, Long-Term 2.000, Risk below 800
BWPT: Med-Term target 1.400, Long-Term 2.000, Risk below 800
Welcome To The Club of 3.500 - 3.850 (11-10): Cautious Speculative Buy in Crazy Bull Trend
Indeks diperkirakan akan mengalami potensi penurunan terbatas dan bahkan Technical Rebound berkat isu positif dari laporan tenaga kerja di AS (Non Farm Payroll -95k, Unemployment 9.6%) mendorong spekulasi The Fed akan membeli surat berharga mortgage & treasury, dimana dapat memberikan sentimen positif kepada IHSG yang masih mengalami technical correction dalam sebuah trend Extend Bullish. Kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia hari ini setelah indeks DJIA mencatat kenaikan diatas 11K untuk pertama kali sejak Mei 2010 (konfirmasi bullish lebih lanjut, target 11.250), diikuti kenaikan harga komoditas (minyak capai $ 83, nikel $24k, timah $ 26.400, CPO $ 2.806) menguntungkan saham komoditas domestik (saham coal, mining, cpo dan agri). IHSG diperkirakan akan mendapatkan support dari saham komoditas, perbankan dan saham infrastruktur, hindari saham konsumer INDF (mendapatkan isu negatif dari laporan di Taiwan). IHSG diperkirakan dalam kisaran 3.520-3.580.
Saksikan Dealing Room hari ini (14.00-15.00 WIB) hari ini di Channel 95 Sun TV (Indovision), mengenai isu perang dagang global, kebijakan Quantitative Easing 2 the Fed, data tenaga kerja AS, inflow global, antisipasi laporan keuangan Q3 emiten lokal, koreksi secara TA, isu saham Bakrie vs Astra.
Indeks berpeluang menguat ke target 3.150 (target GSM di Q3 2010, tercapai 26/08) dan 3.400 (target GSM akhir tahun; direvisi menjadi 3.850 dari 3.550; Analisa EW/Gann/Fibonacci).
Close all position (04/08): Mayoritas profit diatas 15% sejak (19/07).
BNI Securities Technical Analysis 11-10 (Buy: BUMI/TLKM. HOLD: TINS. SELL: INDF)
http://www.ziddu.com/download/12028009/101110t.pdf.html
Jadwal IPO:
Tower Bersama Infrastructure (Telecommunication Infrastructure serve)
Listing Date 26 October 2010
Offering periode 18-20 October 2010
Offered share 755,000,000 shr
Price Rp1,675-2,100
Underwritter PT UBS Securities Indonesia, PT Indo Premier Securities
Krakatau Steel/Garuda/Tower/Newmont/Borneo Lumbung Energy/Bumi Mineral are next
Sep 2 2010, 4:07 PM Gallery Saham Mania:
HOLD BUY (liat chat roll): MASA: Buy breakout Fibo (23/09) at 380 target 440/500/MEDC: Buy (22/09) 3.150 target 3.400 (tercapai)/4.400 stop loss dibawah 2950/Buy ASII (21/09) 55.600 target 63.000/80.000/@ENRG Buy Breakout 125 (22/09) target 190/Buy (21/09) BWPT @910 target 1.030-1.250/ ELSA @345 target 370-420/BUMI @1.960 (20/09) target 2.150 (tercapai)/2.350 (tercapai)/ CPIN @6.900 (15/09) target 10.350/ PGAS @ 3.950-4.000 (15/09) target 4.700/5.800/INDF @5.100 (15/09) 6.050-7.350/INCO @4.475 (15/09) target 5.300/6.500 (Upgrade)/BRAU (19/08) @420 & 455 tgt 485-500/JPFA @2.225 (A) tgt 3.000-3.500 (tercapai)/SOBI @2.325 tgt 2.750-3.200 (tercapai)/BLTA @240 tgt 265-280 (tercapai)/UNVR @16900 tgt 18.500/GJTL @1.760 tgt 2300/RALS @840 tgt 1050-1400/MAPI @1130 tgt 1625 (tercapai)-2285/BBKP @730 tgt 850-930/TPIA @2600 (-10%)/MYOR @8200 tgt 10.800 (tercapai)/BNGA @1260 tgt 1340-1.560/JSMR @2.925 tgt 3.325/BUMI @1.655 (A) tgt 1.780-1.840 (tercapai)/ADRO @1.825 (A) tgt 1.940 (tercapai). Stop loss < -7%.
Check out my blog (Gallery Saham Mania): globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Saksikan Dealing Room hari ini (14.00-15.00 WIB) hari ini di Channel 95 Sun TV (Indovision), mengenai isu perang dagang global, kebijakan Quantitative Easing 2 the Fed, data tenaga kerja AS, inflow global, antisipasi laporan keuangan Q3 emiten lokal, koreksi secara TA, isu saham Bakrie vs Astra.
Indeks berpeluang menguat ke target 3.150 (target GSM di Q3 2010, tercapai 26/08) dan 3.400 (target GSM akhir tahun; direvisi menjadi 3.850 dari 3.550; Analisa EW/Gann/Fibonacci).
Close all position (04/08): Mayoritas profit diatas 15% sejak (19/07).
BNI Securities Technical Analysis 11-10 (Buy: BUMI/TLKM. HOLD: TINS. SELL: INDF)
http://www.ziddu.com/download/12028009/101110t.pdf.html
Jadwal IPO:
Tower Bersama Infrastructure (Telecommunication Infrastructure serve)
Listing Date 26 October 2010
Offering periode 18-20 October 2010
Offered share 755,000,000 shr
Price Rp1,675-2,100
Underwritter PT UBS Securities Indonesia, PT Indo Premier Securities
Krakatau Steel/Garuda/Tower/Newmont/Borneo Lumbung Energy/Bumi Mineral are next
Sep 2 2010, 4:07 PM Gallery Saham Mania:
HOLD BUY (liat chat roll): MASA: Buy breakout Fibo (23/09) at 380 target 440/500/MEDC: Buy (22/09) 3.150 target 3.400 (tercapai)/4.400 stop loss dibawah 2950/Buy ASII (21/09) 55.600 target 63.000/80.000/@ENRG Buy Breakout 125 (22/09) target 190/Buy (21/09) BWPT @910 target 1.030-1.250/ ELSA @345 target 370-420/BUMI @1.960 (20/09) target 2.150 (tercapai)/2.350 (tercapai)/ CPIN @6.900 (15/09) target 10.350/ PGAS @ 3.950-4.000 (15/09) target 4.700/5.800/INDF @5.100 (15/09) 6.050-7.350/INCO @4.475 (15/09) target 5.300/6.500 (Upgrade)/BRAU (19/08) @420 & 455 tgt 485-500/JPFA @2.225 (A) tgt 3.000-3.500 (tercapai)/SOBI @2.325 tgt 2.750-3.200 (tercapai)/BLTA @240 tgt 265-280 (tercapai)/UNVR @16900 tgt 18.500/GJTL @1.760 tgt 2300/RALS @840 tgt 1050-1400/MAPI @1130 tgt 1625 (tercapai)-2285/BBKP @730 tgt 850-930/TPIA @2600 (-10%)/MYOR @8200 tgt 10.800 (tercapai)/BNGA @1260 tgt 1340-1.560/JSMR @2.925 tgt 3.325/BUMI @1.655 (A) tgt 1.780-1.840 (tercapai)/ADRO @1.825 (A) tgt 1.940 (tercapai). Stop loss < -7%.
Check out my blog (Gallery Saham Mania): globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Workshop Combo Technical Analysis (CTA) Saham: November-Desember 2010
Berhubung dengan kesibukan trainer/penulis blogger Gallery Saham Mania ini di bulan Oktober, kemungkinan besar pelaksanaan Workshop New Style of Combo Technical Analysis (CTA) untuk Basic - Intermediate - Advanced, baru dapat dilaksanakan awal November 2010.
Harap maklum. Terima kasih atas perhatiannya.
http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/09/workshop-combo-technical-analysis-saham_06.html
Introduction to Technical Analysis/Reversal/Continuation Patterns
* History of Technical Analysis
* Basics of Technical Analysis
* Supply/Demand Philosophy
* Dow Theory, Old and New
* Head and Shoulders
* Triangles, Wedges
* Rectangles, Pennants
* Measurement Rules
* Double/Triple Tops and Bottoms
* Diamonds, Climaxes
* Cases
Trend Analysis/Momentum
* Definition of Trends
* Speedlines, Fans, Channels
* Support/Resistance
* Saucers, Gaps
* Moving averages, double, triple
* Envelopes, Bollinger bands
* ROC, MACD, RSI, other stochastics
* Trading: day, swing, asset allocation, investing
* Cases
Relative Strength and Volume
* Relative Strength
* DMI
* Volume: OBV and other measures
* Money flow
* Introduction to option strategies with technical analysis
* Statistical and probability concepts
* Cases
Moving averages
* Double crossover, Japanese crosses, Triple crossovers, envelope model
* Bollinger Bands
Intermarket Analysis
* Fixed Income, Commodities, and Currencies
* Ten-Year Treasury Yields
* CRB Index
* Continuous Commodity Index
* Journal of Commerce Index
* US Dollar, British Pound, Euro, Yen
* Cross Currencies
Point and Figure and Gann; Elliott Wave Theory
* Point and figure construction methods
-The Wheelan method
-The Cohen approach
* Reversal criteria
* Measurement tools, such as horizontal, vertical, pole
* GANN, Wyckoff
* Elliott Wave: characteristics and measurement objectives
* Patterns and ratio aspects
* Fibonacci numbers & Sequence
* Cases
Others Analysis:
Market Profile, Volume Bar, NeoWave
Cycles/Sentiment and Behavioral
* Types of cycles: including Kondratieff, Kitchin and others
* Cycles concepts: summation, harmonicity, synchronicity, proportionality
* Classifications
* Use with other technical indicators
* Creation of technical patterns with cycles
* Bubbles - USA, Japan, China
* Sentiment surveys: traders and investors
* Sentiment indicators: levels, money flows, supply/demand, fear/greed measures
* Put/call ratio
* Short index
* Insider activity
* TED, VIX
* Behavioral concepts
Japanese Candlesticks and Ethics/Professional Management
* Candle types
* Candle sequences
* Blending with western charts
* Intensity, continuation, reversal types - special names, such as Marubozu, Spinning Tops, Doji, Dragon Fly, Hamari, Hanging Man, etc.
* Blending/engulfing
* Support/resistance
* Candles and traditional charts
* Ethics and professionalism
* Portfolio management
* Cases
* Special statistical and portfolio theory appendix
Portfolio Management
* Technical Analysis Tools for Sentiment
* Efficient Market Considerations
* Short versus long trading strategies
* Risk tools
* Advanced Derivative Use and Technical Analysis
@Courtesy of Gallery Saham Mania: globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Harap maklum. Terima kasih atas perhatiannya.
http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/09/workshop-combo-technical-analysis-saham_06.html
Detail Modul Training: Basic - Intermediate - Advanced
(Paket Modul sewaktu2 bisa berubah), All in 3 Days
Harga Paket / Training : I - Rp 3.000.000 (Basic Only); II - Rp 5,000,000.00 (Basic & Intermediate / Advanced Only) & III - 7.500,000.00 (Basic-Intermediate-Advanced)
Bagi yang berminat untuk mengikuti Workshop / Training CTA dapat menghubungi melalui email (a_zakarias@yahoo.com) / by SMS (081319611900 an. Andri Zakarias S).
Harga Paket / Training : I - Rp 3.000.000 (Basic Only); II - Rp 5,000,000.00 (Basic & Intermediate / Advanced Only) & III - 7.500,000.00 (Basic-Intermediate-Advanced)
Bagi yang berminat untuk mengikuti Workshop / Training CTA dapat menghubungi melalui email (a_zakarias@yahoo.com) / by SMS (081319611900 an. Andri Zakarias S).
Introduction to Technical Analysis/Reversal/Continuation Patterns
* History of Technical Analysis
* Basics of Technical Analysis
* Supply/Demand Philosophy
* Dow Theory, Old and New
* Head and Shoulders
* Triangles, Wedges
* Rectangles, Pennants
* Measurement Rules
* Double/Triple Tops and Bottoms
* Diamonds, Climaxes
* Cases
Trend Analysis/Momentum
* Definition of Trends
* Speedlines, Fans, Channels
* Support/Resistance
* Saucers, Gaps
* Moving averages, double, triple
* Envelopes, Bollinger bands
* ROC, MACD, RSI, other stochastics
* Trading: day, swing, asset allocation, investing
* Cases
Relative Strength and Volume
* Relative Strength
* DMI
* Volume: OBV and other measures
* Money flow
* Introduction to option strategies with technical analysis
* Statistical and probability concepts
* Cases
Moving averages
* Double crossover, Japanese crosses, Triple crossovers, envelope model
* Bollinger Bands
Intermarket Analysis
* Fixed Income, Commodities, and Currencies
* Ten-Year Treasury Yields
* CRB Index
* Continuous Commodity Index
* Journal of Commerce Index
* US Dollar, British Pound, Euro, Yen
* Cross Currencies
Point and Figure and Gann; Elliott Wave Theory
* Point and figure construction methods
-The Wheelan method
-The Cohen approach
* Reversal criteria
* Measurement tools, such as horizontal, vertical, pole
* GANN, Wyckoff
* Elliott Wave: characteristics and measurement objectives
* Patterns and ratio aspects
* Fibonacci numbers & Sequence
* Cases
Others Analysis:
Market Profile, Volume Bar, NeoWave
Cycles/Sentiment and Behavioral
* Types of cycles: including Kondratieff, Kitchin and others
* Cycles concepts: summation, harmonicity, synchronicity, proportionality
* Classifications
* Use with other technical indicators
* Creation of technical patterns with cycles
* Bubbles - USA, Japan, China
* Sentiment surveys: traders and investors
* Sentiment indicators: levels, money flows, supply/demand, fear/greed measures
* Put/call ratio
* Short index
* Insider activity
* TED, VIX
* Behavioral concepts
Japanese Candlesticks and Ethics/Professional Management
* Candle types
* Candle sequences
* Blending with western charts
* Intensity, continuation, reversal types - special names, such as Marubozu, Spinning Tops, Doji, Dragon Fly, Hamari, Hanging Man, etc.
* Blending/engulfing
* Support/resistance
* Candles and traditional charts
* Ethics and professionalism
* Portfolio management
* Cases
* Special statistical and portfolio theory appendix
Portfolio Management
* Technical Analysis Tools for Sentiment
* Efficient Market Considerations
* Short versus long trading strategies
* Risk tools
* Advanced Derivative Use and Technical Analysis
@Courtesy of Gallery Saham Mania: globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
Nothing Can't Stop Us on Global 3ull Attack . Hold Buy Area 3.550-3.560 target 3.650 stop 3.520
Volume Bar Analysis: Peluang Gap Up (11/10).
Add buy 3.480 target 3.650 stop 30p.
* Upgrade target Akhir Tahun menjadi 3.850/ 4.200 di H1 2011
(The 1st Upgrade in Indonesia & in process of Super Bull of 2010 - 2012 - 2015 only in Special Technical Analysis BNI Securities).
IHSG: 1 jam & 4 jam stochastic menunjukkan signal oversold & crossover, meski daily chart menunjukkan kondisi overbought dan divergence bearish, masih dalam jalur Super Bull, belum ada signal top reversal.
Liat TD Wave 10/08: http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=6833542981102286398&postID=5218895147221569420
Track Record IHSG (since end of March 2010) : 65 Recommendations (48 Profits: 4 Break Even: 13 Loss) = (+20p+45p+73p+53+60p+45p+63p+0p+27p+50p-20p+13p+40p+45p+40p+29p-30p-154p-75p+80p+26p+0p+28p+80p+62p+53p+20p+0p+70p+99p+135p-20p-30p+50p+60p+100p+0p-55p-30p+59p-30p-20p-30p-30p+45p+70p+74p+57p+35p+50p+50p-30P+20P+20P+35P+54P+60P+40P+58P+3P+50P+5P). Total : Net +1926 points = Average 30.12 point.
DJIA
Volume Bar Analysis
Buy 11.000 target 11.250 stop 50p
Track record (since end of March 2010) : 53 Recommendations (32 Profits: 21 Loss) (-65p-30p+370p + 280p+190p-30p+230p-30p+120p+200p-40p+280p+198p+205p+110p-30p+70p+200p+150p-50p-30p-30p-30p+145p-50p-30p+175p-50p-50p-60p-50p-50p+225p+100p-55p+100p+380p+220p+230p-100p-60p+265p+20p+80P+90P+130P-30P+50P-50P-50P+100P+20P+225P+250P+180P-50P-50P). Total Net +4173 points = Average +81.36 points/trade.
Rekomendasi Nikkei 225/Hang Seng/Shanghai:
http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/10/market-profile-ihsgnikkei-225hang_04.html
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