Tuesday, October 26, 2010

Nothing Can't Stop Us on Global 3ull Attack * The 3ig Market Surprise Is Comming Soon



IHSG
Hold Buy 3.540 (20/10) target 3.705 stop 3.580.
* Upgrade target Akhir Tahun menjadi 3.850 (berpotensi upgrade ke 4.040 pada 30 Desember 2010)/ 4.200 di H1 2011. 


(The 1st Upgrade in Indonesia & in process of Super Bull of 2010 - 2012 - 2015 only in Special Technical Analysis BNI Securities & BNI Securities Market Outlook 2011).

IHSG: 1 jam menunjukkan momentum kenaikan & 4 jam stochastic menunjukkan signal crossover, daily chart menunjukkan dengan buying power masih dominan dengan signal crossover buy di stochastic,  siap untuk attack 3.645/3.710  karena masih dalam jalur Super Bull, belum ada signal top reversal. 

Liat TD Wave 10/08: http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=6833542981102286398&postID=5218895147221569420   

Track Record IHSG (since end of March 2010) : 66 Recommendations (49 Profits (19 x profit berturut-turut); 4 Break Even: 13 Loss) = (+20p+45p+73p+53+60p+45p+63p+0p+27p+50p-20p+13p+40p+45p+40p+29p-30p-154p-75p+80p+26p+0p+28p+80p+62p+53p+20p+0p+70p+99p+135p-20p-30p+50p+60p+100p+0p-55p-30p+59p-30p-20p-30p-30p+45p+70p+74p+57p+35p+50p+50p-30P+20P+20P+35P+54P+60P+40P+58P+3P+50P+5P+55P+5P). Total : Net +1986 points = Average 30.47 point. 

DJIA  
Sell 10.300 target 10.050 stop 50p.
Buy 10.050 target 10.300 stop 50p 

Signal 1 jam oversold & 4 jam hingga daily divergence bearish dan dalam trend 3ullish, meski dengan buying power yang lemah, menunjukkan potensi kenaikan terbatas dengan  resist di 102.50-10.300.
Track record  (since end of March 2010) : 55 Recommendations (32 Profits: 23 Loss) (-65p-30p+370p + 280p+190p-30p+230p-30p+120p+200p-40p+280p+198p+205p+110p-30p+70p+200p+150p-50p-30p-30p-30p+145p-50p-30p+175p-50p-50p-60p-50p-50p+225p+100p-55p+100p+380p+220p+230p-100p-60p+265p+20p+80P+90P+130P-30P+50P-50P-50P+100P+20P+225P+250P+180P-50P-50P-50P-50P+165P). Total Net +4238 points = Average +76.35 points/trade.

Rekomendasi Nikkei 225/Hang Seng/Shanghai:
http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/10/market-profile-ihsgnikkei-225hang_04.html
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Monday, October 25, 2010

Laporan & Rumor Saham Indonesia 25-10

Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) ditutup menguat 45 poin dan mencetak rekor tertinggi baru hari ini di level 3.643. Duet penguatan tajam saham-saham sektor perkebunan dan perbankan menjadi pendorong utama kenaikan IHSG. Mengawali perdagangan, IHSG dibuka naik tipis ke level 3.598,206 dan kemudian melanjutkan penguatan ke level 3.644,720, naik 47 poin dari penutupan akhir pekan lalu di level 3.597,745. IHSG sempat bergerak stagnan di awal perdagangan. Sepinya sentimen positif bursa-bursa regional Asia membuat pelaku pasar menunggu konfirmasi perdagangan lebih lanjut.

Menjelang perdagangan siang, bursa-bursa saham Asia mulai menanjak naik. Analis memprediksi, kenaikan tersebut dipicu oleh penguatan harga komoditas di pasar global menyusul hasil pertemuan G20 yang sepakat berupaya menghindari perang mata uang. Selain saham komoditas, kenaikan cukup tinggi juga terjadi pada saham-saham sektor perbankan. Upaya pencegahan perang mata uang otomatis akan meminimalisir gerak fluktuasi kurs yang tentunya akan membuat kinerja keuangan bank jauh lebih stabil. IHSG pun melesat cukup tinggi dimotori oleh penguatan saham di sektor perkebunan, perbankan, konsumsi dan aneka industri. Indeks saham sektor perkebunan naik lebih dari 4%.

IHSG berhasil mencetak rekor penutupan tertinggi baru hari ini. Rekor intraday tertinggi belum dipatahkan. Rekor penutupan sebelumnya terjadi pada perdagangan 14 Oktober 2010 di level 3.618,478, sedangkan rekor intraday tertinggi sebelumnya juga pada hari yang sama di level 3.644,720. Pada penutupan perdagangan Senin (25/10/2010), IHSG menguat 45,746 poin (1,27%) ke level 3.643,491. Sedangkan Indeks LQ 45 naik 9,134 poin (1,36%) ke level 676,311. Perdagangan hari ini berjalan cukup ramai dengan frekuensi transaksi di seluruh pasar 125.236 kali pada volume 5,867 miliar lembar saham senilai Rp 5,121 triliun. Sebanyak  140 saham naik, 89 saham turun dan 77 saham stagnan.

Transaksi investor asing mencatat pembelian bersih (foreign net buy) sebesar Rp 145,812 miliar.

Bursa-bursa regional Asia didominasi penguatan:
    * Indeks Hang Seng menguat 110,37 poin (0,47%) ke level 23.627,91.
    * Indeks Nikkei 225 turun tipis 25,55 poin (0,27%) ke level 9.401,16.
    * Indeks Straits Times naik 13,75 poin (0,43%) ke level 3.187,32.

Saham-saham yang naik signifikan dan masuk dalam jajaran top gainers diantaranya Astra Agro (AALI) naik Rp 1.500 ke Rp 25.800, Petrosea (PTRO) naik Rp 1.500 ke Rp 41.500, BRI (BBRI) naik Rp 950 ke Rp 11.800, Lonsum (LSIP) naik Rp 550 ke Rp 11.500. Sementara saham-saham yang turun cukup tinggi dan masuk dalam kategori top losers antara lain Gudang Garam (GGRM) turun Rp 250 ke Rp 46.900, Bukit Asam (PTBA) turun Rp 200 ke Rp 19.900, Bayan Resources (BYAN) turun Rp 200 ke Rp 13.000.
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2010/10/25/161111/1474325/6/ihsg-cetak-rekor-tertinggi-baru-di-3643

Laba Bersih MKPI Naik 4,98% di Q3-2010
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/917392/laba-bersih-mkpi-naik-498-di-q3-2010

Kimia Farma Rencana Rights Issue di 2011
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/917302/kimia-farma-rencana-rights-issue-di-2011

Laba Bersih ICB Bumiputera Naik 201,39% di Q3-2010
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/917272/laba-bersih-icb-bumiputera-naik-20139-di-q3-2010

Merger, Saham TPIA Menuju 5.000
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/916632/merger-saham-tpia-menuju-5000

Perumnas-Wika Bakal Bangun Apartemen Rp1 Triliun
http://economy.okezone.com/read/2010/10/25/320/386165/perumnas-wika-bakal-bangun-apartemen-rp1-triliun

Bakrie Brothers Siap Garap Pipa Gas Kepodang US$ 145 Juta
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2010/10/25/112807/1474024/6/bakrie-brothers-siap-garap-pipa-gas-kepodang-us--145-juta

Merger Raksasa Prajogo Pangestu Dapat Restu KPPU
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2010/10/25/090709/1473875/6/merger-raksasa-prajogo-pangestu-dapat-restu-kppu

Lumbung Energi Pasang Harga IPO Rp 980 - 1.280 per Saham
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2010/10/25/121814/1474099/6/lumbung-energi-pasang-harga-ipo-rp-980--1280-per-saham

Petrosea Raih Kontrak Afiliasi dari Kideco US$ 200 Juta
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2010/10/25/123301/1474107/6/petrosea-raih-kontrak-afiliasi-dari-kideco-us--200-juta

Jasindo Bidik IPO Rp 600 Miliar di 2011
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2010/10/25/133719/1474161/6/jasindo-bidik-ipo-rp-600-miliar-di-2011

Saham IPO KS Dibanderol Rp 850 per Lembar
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2010/10/25/142512/1474218/6/saham-ipo-ks-dibanderol-rp-850-per-lembar

Asing Serap 72% Saham IPO Tower Bersama
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2010/10/25/083003/1473851/6/asing-serap-72-saham-ipo-tower-bersama

Laporan dari Singapura
Sari Ayu Bidik Dana IPO Rp 300 Miliar
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2010/10/25/075026/1473836/6/sari-ayu-bidik-dana-ipo-rp-300-miliar

Rekomendasi Saham
IHSG Cermati Laporan Keuangan Emiten
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2010/10/25/073349/1473821/6/ihsg-cermati-laporan-keuangan-emiten

Ulasan Sepekan
Hasil G20 Soal 'Perang Mata Uang' Tak Pengaruhi Pasar
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2010/10/25/070627/1473810/6/hasil-g20-soal-perang-mata-uang-tak-pengaruhi-pasar

Lakukan Investasi, Maka Anda Kaya
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2010/10/18/104351/1467543/722/lakukan-investasi-maka-anda-kaya

TDL 2011 Batal Naik, Inflasi Bakal Jinak
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2010/10/25/141824/1474210/4/tdl-2011-batal-naik-inflasi-bakal-jinak

BJBR Raup Laba Bersih Rp1,03 T di Q3-2010
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/915802/bjbr-raup-laba-bersih-rp103-t-di-q3-2010

TPIA Bagikan Dividen Interim Sebesar Rp65
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/915822/tpia-bagikan-dividen-interim-sebesar-rp65

UNSP Tuntaskan Penyelesaian Utang Domba Mas
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/915772/unsp-tuntaskan-penyelesaian-utang-domba-mas

ELTY & ASRI Melemah, LPKR Masih Naik
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/915742/elty--asri-melemah-lpkr-masih-naik

Anak Usaha ENRG Terapkan Zero Water Discharge
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/915702/anak-usaha-enrg-terapkan-zero-water-discharge

Astra Komit di Permata untuk Jangka Panjang
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/915692/astra-komit-di-permata-untuk-jangka-panjang

Kurs Rupiah Pagi Cenderung Stabil
http://www.antaranews.com/berita/1287978098/kurs-rupiah-pagi-cenderung-stabil

Kinerja Astra Q3-2010 tak Mengecewakan
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/915672/kinerja-astra-q3-2010-tak-mengecewakan

Desember, EMTK Bagikan Dividen Interim Rp10/Saham
http://economy.okezone.com/read/2010/10/25/278/386003/desember-emtk-bagikan-dividen-interim-rp10-saham

LPKR pimpin penurunan indeks di sektor properti
http://www.bursarumor.com/?q=node/80304

Michelin ingin tambah saham, GJTL melonjak
http://www.bursarumor.com/?q=node/80303

Akuisisi rampung, saham UNSP berlari
http://www.bursarumor.com/?q=node/80302

Merger, Saham TPIA Menuju 5.000
http://www.bursarumor.com/?q=node/80301

Merger, Saham TPIA Menuju 5.000
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/916632/merger-saham-tpia-menuju-5000

ASII-BBRI Siap Dongkrak IHSG Pekan Ini
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/914912/asii-bbri-siap-dongkrak-ihsg-pekan-ini

Oversubscribed hingga 17 Kali, Asing Serap 72% Saham Perdana Tower
http://www.investorindonesia.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=91439&Itemid=

CTRA kembangkan proyek di lima kota
http://www.bursarumor.com/?q=node/80269

Komoditi yang harus dicermati pekan ini
http://www.bursarumor.com/?q=node/80268

BUMI Menuju Rp2.600, Ayo Akumulasi
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/914862/bumi-menuju-rp2600-ayo-akumulasi

Harga Saham Bukit Darmo Ditarik ke Rp200
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/915622/harga-saham-bukit-darmo-ditarik-ke-rp200

Saatnya Lirik Saham ANTM
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/915602/saatnya-lirik-saham-antm

Cermati Saham Polychem
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/915582/cermati-saham-polychem

MIRA Restrukturisasi Saham Anak Usahanya
http://economy.okezone.com/read/2010/10/25/278/385954/mira-restrukturisasi-saham-anak-usahanya

Laba Panin Sekuritas Naik 51,6 Persen
http://economy.okezone.com/read/2010/10/25/278/385935/laba-panin-sekuritas-naik-51-6-persen

Sudah delapan minggu, harga CPO terus reli
http://www.bursarumor.com/?q=node/80245

Rekomendasi: Saham apa yang pantas dicermati?
http://www.bursarumor.com/?q=node/80244

KARK bidik pendapatan Rp1 triliun
http://www.bursarumor.com/?q=node/80242

Pekan Ini Pilih Saham Properti & Bank
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/914882/pekan-ini-pilih-saham-properti--bank

PTPP bakal jual saham divisi properti
http://www.bursarumor.com/?q=node/80227
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Welcome To The Club of 3.500-3.850 (25-10): Will Be Breakout The Consolidation Phase

Cermati saham mining (ITMG, PTBA, BYAN, HRUM, UNTR, ANTM), property (LPKR, BKDP, DILD, PWON) banking (BMRI, BBRI, BBCA, BJBR, BTPN), agri CPO (AALI, LSIP, SGRO), BTEL, ASII, BTEK, MLPL, NIKL, ADES, CMNP, MYOR, MAPI.

Saksikan Dealing Room Jumat (22/10): 14.00-15.00 WIB  & Mover & Shaker Jam 19.00 - 20.00 WIB di Channel 95 MNC Bisnis (Indovision)

Indeks berpeluang menguat ke target 3.150 (target GSM di Q3 2010, tercapai 26/08) dan 3.400 (target GSM akhir tahun; direvisi menjadi 3.850 dari 3.550; Analisa EW/Gann/Fibonacci).

Close all position (04/08): Mayoritas profit diatas 15% sejak (19/07).

Saksikan Dealing Room Jumat (22/10): 14.00-15.00 WIB  & Mover & Shaker Jam 19.00 - 20.00 WIB di Channel 83 MNC Bisnis (Indovision).

Indeks berpeluang menguat ke target 3.150 (target GSM di Q3 2010, tercapai 26/08) dan 3.400 (target GSM akhir tahun; direvisi menjadi 3.850 dari 3.550; Analisa EW/Gann/Fibonacci).

BNI Securities Technical Analysis 25-10 (Buy: ADRO/BDMN/JSMR/TSPC)

Jadwal IPO:
Tower Bersama Infrastructure (Telecommunication Infrastructure serve)
Listing Date 26 October 2010
Offering periode 18-20 October 2010

Offered share 755,000,000 shr
Price Rp1,675-2,100

Ke-12 calon emiten yang dalam proses go public antara lain Krakatau Steel dengan target dana Rp 3,3 triliun, Bumi Resources Mineral (Rp 3 triliun), Borneo Lumbung Energy (Rp 3 triliun), Agung Podomoro (Rp 1,8 triliun), Tower Bersama (Rp 1,5 triliun), dan Wintermar Rp 400 miliar. 

From Chat Roll:  

Close all position (04/08): Mayoritas profit diatas 15% sejak (19/07). 
 
Oct 21 2010, 9:40 AMAndri (guest): @MYOR: Buy 11.150 setelah breakout 11.100 target 13.400 stop loss dibawah 9700.

Oct 21 2010, 9:25 AMAndri (guest): @PTPP: buy on breakout resist line 930 target 1.200 stop loss 880.

Oct 21 2010, 11:18 AMAndri (guest): @BTEK: wave koreksi 4 telah berakhir, jika breakout 485, Buy: 420-430 risk 350, target 485 (1)/620 (2)/700 (3)/920 (long term).

Oct 20 2010, 2:32 PM: Profit taking (22/10): Buy on weakness (20/10-10.30 Wib): Hold TLKM (9.100), JPFA (3.400), CPIN (8.250), INDF (4.900), PGAS (4.100), BUMI (2.275), MNCN (560), SOBI (3.050), BHIT (128). Buy LPKR 580, BSDE 890 target Profit Taking Jumat (22/10), risk 5%.

Sep 2 2010, 4:07 PM Gallery Saham Mania 
HOLD BUY (liat chat roll): MASA: Buy breakout Fibo (23/09) at 380 target 440/500/MEDC: Buy (22/09) 3.150 target 3.400 (tercapai)/4.400 stop loss dibawah 2950/Buy ASII (21/09) 55.600 target 63.000/80.000/@ENRG Buy Breakout 125 (22/09) target 190/Buy (21/09) BWPT @910 target 1.030-1.250/ ELSA @345 target 370-420/BUMI @1.960 (20/09) target 2.150 (tercapai)/2.350 (tercapai)/ CPIN @6.900 (15/09) target 10.350/ PGAS @ 3.950-4.000 (15/09) target 4.700/5.800/INDF @5.100 (15/09) 6.050-7.350/INCO @4.475 (15/09) target 5.300/6.500 (Upgrade)/BRAU (19/08) @420 & 455 tgt 485-500/JPFA @2.225 (A) tgt 3.000-3.500 (tercapai)/SOBI @2.325 tgt 2.750-3.200 (tercapai)/BLTA @240 tgt 265-280 (tercapai)/UNVR @16900 tgt 18.500/GJTL @1.760 tgt 2300/RALS @840 tgt 1050-1400/MAPI @1130 tgt 1625 (tercapai)-2285/BBKP @730 tgt 850-930/TPIA @2600 (-10%)/MYOR @8200 tgt 10.800 (tercapai)/BNGA @1260 tgt 1340-1.560/JSMR @2.925 tgt 3.325/BUMI @1.655 (A) tgt 1.780-1.840 (tercapai)/ADRO @1.825 (A) tgt 1.940 (tercapai). Stop loss < -7%.

Check out my blog (Gallery Saham Mania): globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com 
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@AKRA vs MICE = Just Turning Around???

AKRA: Buy dengan target 1), 2), 3), resiko di 1.150 (med-term support)
MICE: Buy, risk 440, target 1), 2), 4), 4)
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Sunday, October 24, 2010

Coming Soon The Workshop Combo Technical Analysis (CTA) Saham: November-Desember 2010

Bahan yang akan dipelajari berdasarkan teori & praktek:
 +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Introduction to Technical Analysis
    * History of Technical Analysis
    * Basics of Technical Analysis
    * Supply/Demand Philosophy

Reversal/Continuation Patterns
    * Dow Theory, Old and New
    * Head and Shoulders
    * Triangles, Wedges
    * Rectangles, Pennants
    * Measurement Rules
    * Double/Triple Tops and Bottoms
    * Diamonds, Climaxes
    * Cases

Trend Analysis/Momentum
    * Definition of Trends
    * Speedlines, Fans, Channels
    * Support/Resistance
    * Saucers, Gaps
    * Moving averages, double, triple
    * Envelopes, Bollinger bands
    * ROC, MACD, RSI, other stochastics
    * Trading: day, swing, asset allocation, investing
    * Cases

Relative Strength and Volume
    * Relative Strength
    * DMI vs Alligator
    * Volume
    * Money flow
    * Cases

Moving averages
    * Double crossover, Japanese crosses, Triple crossovers, envelope model
    * Bollinger Bands

Intermarket Analysis
    * Fixed Income, Commodities, and Currencies
    * Ten-Year Treasury Yields
    * CRB Index
    * Continuous Commodity Index
    * Journal of Commerce Index
    * US Dollar, British Pound, Euro, Yen
    * Cross Currencies

Point and Figure and Gann; Elliott Wave Theory
    * Point and figure construction methods
      -The Wheelan method
      -The Cohen approach
    * Reversal criteria
    * Measurement tools, such as horizontal, vertical, pole
    * GANN, Wyckoff
    * Elliott Wave: characteristics and measurement objectives
    * Patterns and ratio aspects
    * Fibonacci numbers & Sequence
    * Cases

Others Analysis:
Market Profile, Volume Bar, NeoWave, Gartley Wave

Cycles/Sentiment and Behavioral
    * Types of cycles: including Kondratieff, Kitchin and others
    * Cycles concepts: summation, harmonicity, synchronicity, proportionality
    * Classifications
    * Use with other technical indicators
    * Creation of technical patterns with cycles
    * Bubbles - USA, Japan, China
    * Sentiment surveys: traders and investors
    * Sentiment indicators: levels, money flows, supply/demand, fear/greed measures
    * Put/call ratio
    * Short index
    * Insider activity
    * TED, VIX
    * Behavioral concepts

Japanese Candlesticks and Ethics/Professional Management
    * Candle types
    * Candle sequences
    * Blending with western charts
    * Intensity, continuation, reversal types - special names, such as Marubozu, Spinning Tops, Doji, Dragon Fly, Hamari, Hanging Man, etc.
    * Blending/engulfing
    * Support/resistance
    * Candles and traditional charts
    * Ethics and professionalism
    * Portfolio management
    * Cases
    * Special statistical and portfolio theory appendix 

Portfolio Management
    * Technical Analysis Tools for Sentiment
    * Efficient Market Considerations
    * Short versus long trading strategies
    * Risk tools
    * Advanced Derivative Use and Technical Analysis

Style Strategy and Sector Analysis
    * Large-Cap vs. Small-Cap
    * Large-Cap vs. Mid-Cap
    * Mid-Cap vs. Small Cap
    * Growth vs. Value 

Tambahan:
Fallen knives
Dead cat bounces
Managing winning/losing positions 
Combo MA (golden cross, silver cross, dead cross), Fibonacci (6 style), Pivots (2 in 3 style),  Zig zag, Fractal, TD Wave, Kaufman Pattern, Combo MACD. 

Bonus: 
* Analisa Equity Fundamental & Economy (Macro & Micro)
* Tips Trading dengan Behaviour Finance
* Screen Talk Analysis (Cuan tanpa menggunakan FA/TA/FL)
* Bandarmology (Intermarket: Saham/Forex/Indeks Futures)
* Aktifitas Hedge Fund/Foreign/Domestik
* Rekomendasi Top 9 saham harian selama 1 bulan (IPO, Blue Chip & Gorengan) by email/sms.
* Analisa Technical & Sentiment Saham / Forex / Commodity (Investment) 2011-2015.     

Nantikan GLOBAL MARKET OUTLOOK (Fundamental/Technical/Sentiment/Flowtist) Saham & Investasi 2011 akan dirilis di blog ini JANUARI 2011.

Samples of My CTA of 11 Analysis 2005 -2010: 


Elliott Wave GSM (22 Position Profit berturut-turut) : http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/search/label/Elliott%20Wave%20GSM





IHSG: Target 3.510 (Lingkaran Biru) Tercapai 30 Sept 2010, Peluang Menuju 4.200 (Q1 2011) & 4.980 (Mei 2011). http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/10/ihsg-target-3510-lingkaran-biru.html

Prospek Saham Indonesia & Investasi Global 2010 (Equity Outlook & Global Investment 2010. 

Workshop Technical Analysis Stock & Futures The 1st Half 2010 (IHSG, DJIA, EUR-USD, GBP-USD, HSI)

Global Market Outlook 2009

Workshop Saham IHSG & Global Market Outlook 2nd Half 2009

Pandangan Pasar Finansial Global 2008

Special Reports Investment Global H2 2005

@Courtesy of Gallery Saham Mania: globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com
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