@SMCB: Riding Higher For 3 Points

SMCB: technical breakout stochastic & ascending triangle, candle bullish continuation, buying power increasing. Buy breakout 2.525 target 2.725 (cut 1/2)/3.050 (cut another 1/2), stop loss 2.250.

@ADRO: Riding Higher To 3 Points

ADRO: wave 3/3, higher volume, stochastic breakout symmetrical triangle today, buying power increasing, candle bullish continuation, hold buy 1-2 days as long as hold above 2.150

Welcome To The Club of 3.600-3.850 (09 - 11): Obama Datang - IHSG Rally

IHSG kembali berpeluang melanjutkan momentum kenaikan lebih lanjut, baik dari sisi fundamental, technical dan sentimen, setelah sentimen positif dari rencana kunjungan Presiden Obama ke Indonesia hari ini, technical oversold & stoch crossover buy, suntikan dana the Fed $600 miliar, suku bunga BI tetap bertahan hingga akhir tahun, meski data GDP Q3 Indonesia tercatat lebih rendah dari perkiraan pasar (5.8% y/y, konsensus 6.35%), net buying asing sebesar Rp 112 miliar & emerging market masih mendapatkan inflow di pekan lalu, diikuti kuatnya sentimen dari IPO Krakatau Steel & IPO Agung Podomoro di pekan ini, meningkatkan daya tarik untuk saham  (DJIA capai tertinggi paska kejatuhan Lehman Brothers) dan komoditas (meski harga metal dan minyak terkoreksi tipis semalam). Meski kekhawatiran terhadap defisit Irlandia yang membengkak menjelang pembukuan oleh Uni Eropa, dapat membatasi kenaikan IHSG dan saham regional hari ini. Saham di sektor perbankan (Trading Buy: BJBR/BMRI/BBCA/BDMN/BTPN/BBRI/BNLI/BNGA), Astra (Trading Buy: ASII, UNTR, AALI), telekomunikasi (Trading BUY: TLKM, EXCL, TBIG, TOWR), infrastruktur (Buy  ADHI,PTPP, WIKA), komoditas (Buy on weakness: PGAS/TINS/ANTM/INCO/JPRS/GDST/NIKL), Agri (Buy: UNSP, LSIP/SGRO/BWPT), Coal (Buy; ITMG/HRUM/PTBA/BYAN/ADRO, Buy BUMI, ELTY, ENRG, konsumer (ICBP/INDF/UNVR), 2nd liner (KIAS/IMAS/ADES/SMCB/UNTR/ADES/SMRA/ELTY/ASRI/LPKR/AKRA/MPPA/KLBF/HMSP/CPIN/JPFA/ELTY/GJTL/DILD/MNCN/MDLN/ULTJ/CMNP/HEXA/MEDC/CTRP/MYRX/RAJA/BTEK). IHSG diperkirakan dalam kisaran 3.690-3.750.

Saksikan Dealing Room saham pilihan Kamis (10/11): 14.00-15.00 WIB  & Movers & Shakers (08/11) Jam 19.00 - 20.00 WIB di Channel 95 MNC Bisnis (Indovision)

Indeks berpeluang menguat ke target 3.150 (target GSM di Q3 2010, tercapai 26/08) dan 3.400 (target GSM akhir tahun; direvisi menjadi 3.850 dari 3.550; Analisa EW/Gann/Fibonacci).

Close all position (04/08): Mayoritas profit diatas 15% sejak (19/07). 

Indeks berpeluang menguat ke target 3.150 (target GSM di Q3 2010, tercapai 26/08) dan 3.400 (target GSM akhir tahun; direvisi menjadi 3.850 dari 3.550; Analisa EW/Gann/Fibonacci).

BNI Securities Technical Analysis 09-11 (BUY: TLKM/NIKL/DOID/INCO) 

http://www.ziddu.com/download/12445961/110910t.pdf.html

Jadwal IPO:
Krakatau Steel (10 November 2010)
Agung Podomoro (11 November 2010)

Ke-12 calon emiten yang dalam proses go public antara lain Krakatau Steel dengan target dana Rp 3,3 triliun, Bumi Resources Mineral (Rp 3 triliun), Borneo Lumbung Energy (Rp 3 triliun) dan Wintermar Rp 400 miliar. 

From Chat Roll:  

Close all position (04/08): Mayoritas profit diatas 15% sejak (19/07). 

08/11: Hold Buy BUVA (570/580) target 660/750/940/1050, selama ditutup diatas area 470/540.

(22/10): 3 Metals: http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/10/trio-metals-upgrade-targets.html
 
Oct 21 2010, 9:40 AMAndri (guest): @MYOR: Buy 11.150 setelah breakout 11.100 target 13.400 stop loss dibawah 9700.

Oct 21 2010, 9:25 AMAndri (guest): @PTPP: Hold buy on breakout resist line 930 target 1.200 stop loss 880.

Oct 21 2010, 11:18 AMAndri (guest): @BTEK: wave koreksi 4 telah berakhir, jika breakout 485, Buy: 420-430 risk 350, target 485 - 620 (tercapai)/700 (3)/920 (long term).

Oct 20 2010, 2:32 PM: (Closed on 22/10): Buy on weakness (20/10-10.30 Wib): Hold TLKM (9.100), JPFA (3.400), CPIN (8.250), INDF (4.900), PGAS (4.100), BUMI (2.275), MNCN (560), SOBI (3.050), BHIT (128). Buy LPKR 580, BSDE 890 target Profit Taking Jumat (22/10), risk 5%.

Sep 2 2010, 4:07 PM Gallery Saham Mania 
HOLD BUY (liat chat roll): MASA: Buy breakout Fibo (23/09) at 380 target 440/500/MEDC: Buy (22/09) 3.150 target 3.400 (tercapai)/4.400 stop loss dibawah 2950/Buy ASII (21/09) 55.600 target 63.000/80.000/@ENRG Buy Breakout 125 (22/09) target 190/Buy (21/09) BWPT @910 target 1.030-1.250/ ELSA @345 target 370-420/BUMI @1.960 (20/09) target 2.150 (tercapai)/2.350 (tercapai)/ CPIN @6.900 (15/09) target 10.350/ PGAS @ 3.950-4.000 (15/09) target 4.700/5.800/INDF @5.100 (15/09) 6.050-7.350/INCO @4.475 (15/09) target 5.300/6.500 (Upgrade)/BRAU (19/08) @420 & 455 tgt 485-500/JPFA @2.225 (A) tgt 3.000-3.500 (tercapai)/SOBI @2.325 tgt 2.750-3.200 (tercapai)/BLTA @240 tgt 265-280 (tercapai)/UNVR @16900 tgt 18.500/GJTL @1.760 tgt 2300/RALS @840 tgt 1050-1400/MAPI @1130 tgt 1625 (tercapai)-2285/BBKP @730 tgt 850-930/TPIA @2600 (-10%)/MYOR @8200 tgt 10.800 (tercapai)/BNGA @1260 tgt 1340-1.560/JSMR @2.925 tgt 3.325/BUMI @1.655 (A) tgt 1.780-1.840 (tercapai)/ADRO @1.825 (A) tgt 1.940 (tercapai). Stop loss < -7%.

Check out my blog (Gallery Saham Mania): globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com 

Nothing Can't Stop Us on Global 3ull Attack * Golden Opportunity To Happy Cuan 3850

IHSG
(05/11) Hold Buy 3.635 & Hold Buy Breakout 3.667 (08/11) target 3.780 stop 3.660.
* Upgrade target Akhir Tahun menjadi 3.850 (berpotensi upgrade ke 4.040 pada 30 Desember 2010)/ 4.200 di H1 2011.  

(The 1st Upgrade in Indonesia & in process of Super Bull of 2010 - 2012 - 2015 only in Special Technical Analysis BNI Securities & BNI Securities Market Outlook 2011).

IHSG: 1 jam menunjukkan crossing up & 4 jam stochastic menunjukkan signal bullish, daily chart juga  menunjukkan technical rebound dengan buying power masih dominan,  siap untuk attack 3.667/3.710  karena masih dalam jalur Super Bull, belum ada signal top reversal. 

Liat TD Wave 10/08: http://www.blogger.com/post-edit.g?blogID=6833542981102286398&postID=5218895147221569420   

Track Record IHSG (since end of March 2010) : 66 Recommendations (50 Profits (22 x profit berturut-turut); 4 Break Even: 13 Loss) = (+20p+45p+73p+53+60p+45p+63p+0p+27p+50p-20p+13p+40p+45p+40p+29p-30p-154p-75p+80p+26p+0p+28p+80p+62p+53p+20p+0p+70p+99p+135p-20p-30p+50p+60p+100p+0p-55p-30p+59p-30p-20p-30p-30p+45p+70p+74p+57p+35p+50p+50p-30P+20P+20P+35P+54P+60P+40P+58P+3P+50P+5P+55P+5P). Total : Net +1986 points = Average 30.47 point. 

DJIA  

(05/11) Hold Buy 11.400 target 11.675 (fibo ext 236.2%) stop 50p. Sell 11.675 target 10.400.
Signal 1 jam &; 4 jam BULLISH hingga daily divergence bearish dan dalam trend 3ullish,  dengan buying power yang dominan, menunjukkan potensi kenaikan terbatas dengan  resist di 102.50-10.300.

Track record  (since end of March 2010) : 56 Recommendations (32 Profits: 24 Loss) (-65p-30p+370p + 280p+190p-30p+230p-30p+120p+200p-40p+280p+198p+205p+110p-30p+70p+200p+150p-50p-30p-30p-30p+145p-50p-30p+175p-50p-50p-60p-50p-50p+225p+100p-55p+100p+380p+220p+230p-100p-60p+265p+20p+80P+90P+130P-30P+50P-50P-50P+100P+20P+225P+250P+180P-50P-50P-50P-50P+165P-50P). Total Net +4238 points = Average +76.35 points/trade.

Rekomendasi Nikkei 225/Hang Seng/Shanghai:
http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2010/10/market-profile-ihsgnikkei-225hang_04.html


@Courtesy of Globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com

The First Technical Target in Indonesia: @IPO PT Bumi Resources Mineral (02/12) / IPO Krakatau Steel (10/11) / IPO Agung Podomoro (11/11)

IPO PT Bumi Resources Mineral Tbk: Produsen emas, tembaga, seng, timah & biji besi. Beberapa anak usaha dibawah BRM: PT Citra Palu Minerals, PT Multi Capital (MDB & NNT), International Minerals Company LLC (PT Gorontalo Minerals), Calipso Investment Pte Ltd (Herald Resources, Gain and Win & DPM),  Lemington Investment Pte Ltd (Konblo Bumi Inc & Bumi Holding SAS) dan Bumi Resources Japan Company Ltd (Bumi Japan).
Harga Penawaran: Rp 625-635
Setiap pembelian 3 saham dapat 2 waran seri 1
Harga Penebusan warran 1 tgl 2 Juni: Rp 690-Rp 700
Underwriter: Danatama, Nomura
Co Lead: Sinar Mas Sec
Int'l Selling Agent: JP Morgan, Nomura

Valuasi akhir tahun 2010E:
EPS 2010E: Rp 48.49
PER 2010E: 12,89x
BV 2010E: Rp 1276
PBV 2010E: 0,49x

Rating by CTA (FA/TA/FL & BF): Buy/Overweight - Target Rp 890/960 untuk Sell on Rally (if Price at Rp 635 on 02/Dec)

 

IPO KRAS (Rp 850): target 900-1.100 (Sell on Rally)

IPO Agung Podomoro (Rp 365): target 560-620 (Sell on Rally)