The Combination of Technical-Analysis & Astrolo9y (CTA)

Blog milik Andri Zakarias Siregar, Analis, Trader, Investor & Trainer (Fundamental/Technical/Flowtist/Bandarmologi: Saham/FX/Commodity), berpengalaman 14 tahun. Narasumber: Berita 1 First Media, Channel 95 MNC(Indovision), MetroTV, ANTV, Bloomberg BusinessWeek, Investor Today, Tempo, Trust, Media Indonesia, Bisnis Indonesia, Seputar Indonesia, Kontan, Harian Jakarta, PasFM, Inilah.com, AATI-IFTA *** Semoga analisa CTA & informasi bermanfaat. Happy Zhuan & Success Trading. Good Luck.

Tuesday, August 9, 2011

@Bear Attack Continue. IHSG + BUMI + POLY (Ahead of BI Rate) vs DJIA

Dow Jones: On the data slate there's the BOJ's monetary policy meeting minutes at 2350 GMT, Australia's July NAB business survey at 0130 GMT, China's July CPI, PPI and industrial output at 0200 GMT, Japan's July consumer confidence survey at 0500 GMT, Japan's July preliminary machine tool orders at 0600 GMT, and Bank Indonesia's board of governors meeting & decision at 0630 GMT. In the U.S. there's 2Q preliminary productivity & costs and the FOMC interest rate decision.

IHSG Market Profile

IHSG (On The Way 200-day MA & Target Panah 3.590) vs DJIA (Target H&S Tercapai)

IHSG (Courtesy BNI Securities Daily TA 9-08-2011)

BUMI:

POLY:

Monday, August 8, 2011

Rekomendasi HITSaham : 8 8 8 (Ramadhan Hari Ke-8)

FROM CHATROLL:

# Andri "@BBTN: Buy 1.500/1.510 on BUll hammer + very oversold target 1.650 stop loss dibawah 1.400"
    2011-08-08 8:56 AM (15.56 WIB)

# Andri "ADMG: Indikasi PIERCING LINE / BULL REVERSAL: BUy Attack 690 target 880 stop loss dibawah 610, add buy jika tembus 880 target 1000"
    2011-08-08 8:53 AM (15.53 WIB)

# Andri "@POLY indikasi BULL ENGULFING & OVERSOLD. Buy attack 650 target 800 stop loss dibawah 550"
    2011-08-08 8:52 AM (15.52 wib)

"Perhatikan IHSG level 3.810, jika tembus Sell-off (kemungkinan besar) telah berakhir, target BULL NEKAD ATTACK 3.945/4.010"
    2011-08-08 7:18 AM (14.18 WIB)

"Remainder: AKUMULASI Setelah BIG SALE market saat ini karena Lapkeu Q3 Strong+ECB Buying Bond+Fed Meeting+Rupiah Inflow+200-day MA+Strong US Payroll"
2011-08-08 7:04 AM (14.04 WIB)

"14.05 WIB: BUY NEKAD ATTACK: ASII/INDF/BMRI/BBRI/TLKM/UNVR/GGRM/ADRO/BBNI/SMGR/PGAS/UNTR/BUMI. Stop loss -3.5%. Good Luck"2011-08-08 7:08 AM (14.08 WIB)

Laporan & Rumor Saham Indonesia 08-08 (Refresh)

2nd session on JCI 08.08.11
@ 3,850.266 (-71.377pts) (-1.820%)
H: 3,920.817 ; L: 3,714.922
Value: 9.42 T (NG 544 B )
Volume: 165 M (NG 847 M )
Foreign Nett Sell: 1.13 T

5 most active stocks by value:
BUMI @ 2,775 (-5.13%)
BBRI @ 6,500 (-2.26%)
BMRI @ 7,350 (0.00%)
ASII @ 65,050 (-3.20%)
PGAS @ 3,275 (+3.15%)

5 most active stocks by volume:
ENRG @ 205 (-2.38%)
BNBR @ 63 (-1.56%)
ELTY @ 152 (+1.33%)
DEWA @ 99 (-2.94%)
KIJA @ 156 (-3.11%)

5 most up:
LMPI @ 340 (+21.43%)
MYTX @ 199 (+17.06%)
LPCK @ 1,330 (+13.68%)
POLY @ 640 (+12.28%)
MREI @ 790 (+11.27%)

5 most down:
CENT @ 95 (-34.03%)
GSMF @ 89 (-31.54%)
PLIN @ 1,650 (-23.26%)
ASDM @ 395 (-21.00%)
AKPI @ 1,280 (-18.47%)

5 Leading Movers:
PGAS @ 3,275 (+2.83%)
INTP @ 14,500 (+2.79%)
SMGR @ 9,150 (+1.73%)
AALI @ 22,300 (+1.20%)
ICBP @ 5,700 (+0.68%)

5 Lagging Movers:
ASII @ 65,050 (-10.2%)
BBCA @ 8,050 (-7.13%)
BBRI @ 6,500 (-4.28%)
BUMI @ 2,775 (-3.64%)
GGRM @ 50,000 (-2.58%)

Rgds, Nadya Isnaeni Data administrator Research Dept BNI Securities

Dana Asing Lari, IHSG Turun 71 Poin. net foreign sell Rp1,136 triliun
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1763070/dana-asing-lari-ihsg-turun-71-poin

Terpangkas 71 Poin, Koreksi IHGS Paling 'Tipis' di Asia
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/08/08/160905/1699142/6/terpangkas-71-poin-koreksi-ihgs-paling-tipis-di-asia

Cek tiga emiten yang bikin indeks meriang di sesi II
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312795100/74901/Cek-tiga-emiten-yang-bikin-indeks-meriang-di-sesi-II

Inilah 3 Tips Jitu Saat Bursa "Longsor"
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1763004/inilah-3-tips-jitu-saat-bursa-longsor

BNBR Optimis Kuasi Reorganisasi Tuntas Tepat Waktu
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1763015/bnbr-optimis-kuasi-reorganisasi-tuntas-tepat-waktu

Penawaran Obligasi Agung Podomoro Oversubscribed
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1762967/penawaran-obligasi-agung-podomoro-oversubscribed

Kawasan Industri Jababeka Investasi Rp 1,5 Triliun di Pariwisata http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/08/08/142256/1698975/6/kawasan-industri-jababeka-investasi-rp-15-triliun-di-pariwisata

Terkoreksi Tajam, Target IHSG Akhir Tahun di 4.200
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/08/08/130220/1698849/6/terkoreksi-tajam-target-ihsg-akhir-tahun-di-4200

JPMorgan naikkan rekomendasi, saham INTP melonjak ke level tertinggi dua bulan
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312788637/74883/JPMorgan-naikkan-rekomendasi-saham-INTP-melonjak-ke-level-tertinggi-dua-bulan

Bangun terminal apung, saham PGAS melonjak ke level tertinggi empat bulan
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312791816/74892/Bangun-terminal-apung-saham-PGAS-melonjak-ke-level-tertinggi-empat-bulan

1st session on JCI 08.08.11
@ 3,725.782 (-195.861pts) (-4.994%)
H: 3,920.817 ; L: 3,722.155
Value: 4.08 T (NG 218 B )
Volume: 4.07 B (NG 316 M )
Foreign Nett Sell: 468 B

5 most active stocks by value:
BUMI @ 2,650 (-9.40%)
BBRI @ 6,300 (-5.26%)
BMRI @ 6,900 (-6.12%)
ASII @ 64,500 (-4.02%)
PGAS @ 3,050 (-3.94%)

5 most active stocks by volume:
BNBR @ 59 (-7.18%)
ENRG @ 188 (-10.48%)
ELTY @ 137 (-8.67%)
DEWA @ 93 (-8.82%)
BUMI @ 2,650 (-9.40%)

5 most up:
MYTX @ 180 (+5.88%)
ACES @ 3,250 (+4.84%)
TRUS @ 440 (+2.33%)
YPAS @ 630 (+1.61%)
ROTI @ 3,125 (+0.81%)

5 most down:
GSMF @ 89 (-31.54%)
AKPI @ 1,180 (-24,84%)
MEGA @ 2,800 (-24.32%)
CLPI @ 1,430 (-23.94%)
ASDM @ 395 (-21.00%)

5 Leading Movers:
ACES @ 3,250 (+0.30%)
ROTI @ 3,125 (+0.03%)
MYTX @ 180 (+0.01%)
DLTA @ 125,000 (+0.009%)
YPAS @ 630 (+0.008%)

5 Lagging Movers:
BBCA @ 7,800 (-14.3%)
ASII @ 64,500 (-12.8%)
BMRI @ 6,900 (-12.1%)
BBRI @ 6,300 (-9.98%)
BUMI @ 2,650 (-6.67%)

Rgds, Nadya Isnaeni Data administrator Research Dept BNI Securities

Asia Keok,IHSG Sesi I Ditutup Terjungkal Hampir5%. net foreign sell Rp468,88 miliar
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1762937/asia-keok-ihsg-sesi-i-terjungkal-hampir-5

Aksi jual asing masih mendominasi bluechips di sesi I
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312780738/74867/Aksi-jual-asing-masih-mendominasi-bluechips-di-sesi-I

Aksi Jual Masif Bawa IHSG Jatuh ke Level 3.700
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/08/08/120631/1698783/6/aksi-jual-masif-bawa-ihsg-jatuh-ke-level-3700

BUMN Publik Diminta tak Ikut-ikutan Jual Saham
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1762946/bumn-publik-diminta-tak-ikut-ikutan-jual-saham

Hatta: Jangan Anggap 'Enteng' Kondisi AS
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1762925/hatta-jangan-anggap-enteng-kondisi-as

Penghasilan bunga kerek kinerja SCMA di semester I 2011
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312778921/74864/Penghasilan-bunga-kerek-kinerja-SCMA-di-semester-I-2011

Bank Internasional, Medco, Tunas Baru: Indonesia Equity Preview
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-08/bank-internasional-medco-tunas-baru-indonesia-equity-preview.html

Bloomberg: Coal India in Talks to Buy Assets in Indonesia, US, Australia

Bloomberg: Indonesia Benchmark Stock Index Drop 4.4%, Enters Correction

Bloomberg: U.S. Downgrade Impact on Indonesia ‘Minimal,’ Brodjonegoro Says

Rupiah Gains as Growth Prospects Offset U.S. Rating Concerns
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-08/rupiah-gains-as-growth-prospects-offset-u-s-rating-concerns.html

40 emiten sektor jasa belum laporkan LKTT 2011
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312776001/74854/40-emiten-sektor-jasa-belum-laporkan-LKTT-2011

Beberapa Saham Bluechip Berpeluang 'Buy on Dip'
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1762869/beberapa-saham-bluechip-berpeluang-buy-on-dip

Tetap Jalankan Proyek Coal Seam, 'Buy' BUMI
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1762874/tetap-jalankan-proyek-coal-seam-buy-bumi

CIMB Niaga Raup Laba Bersih Rp1,54 Triliun
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1762890/cimb-niaga-raup-laba-bersih-rp154-triliun

Rajawali Setujui PTBA Tambah 20% Saham di BATR
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1762908/rajawali-setujui-ptba-tambah-20-saham-di-batr

Eratex Konversi Utang Jadi Saham Baru
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1762881/eratex-konversi-utang-jadi-saham-baru

Saham IMAS terperosok hingga 10% di transaksi pagi
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312773534/74848/Saham-IMAS-terperosok-hingga-10-di-transaksi-pagi

GIAA terancam tidak bisa kuasi organisasi tahun ini
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312773840/74849/GIAA-terancam-tidak-bisa-kuasi-organisasi-tahun-ini

Kinerja memuaskan, saham BNGA terbang ke level tertinggi empat bulan
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312775565/74853/Kinerja-memuaskan-saham-BNGA-terbang-ke-level-tertinggi-empat-bulan

Transaksi pagi, saham ELTY terpukul hingga 4%
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312772861/74847/Transaksi-pagi-saham-ELTY-terpukul-hingga-4

Bloomberg: Bank CIMB Niaga Rises Most in Four Months After Profit Gains

BLOOMBERG: *DEUTSCHE BANK TO SELL 65B INDONESIAN RUPIAH OF URIDASHI BONDS. *DEUTSCHE BANK RUPIAH BONDS DUE SEPT 2021, PAY 7.55% COUPON

Palm Oil Falls as Much as 0.6% to 3,034 Ringgit a Metric Ton

Bloomberg: UBS Sees Limited Fundamental Impact on Asian Shrs From S&P Move

Bloomberg: S&P Says No Immediate Impact of U.S. on Asia Sovereign Ratings. *S&P:POSSIBLE LONGER-TERM CONSEQUENCES NEGATIVE FOR ASIA RATINGS. *S&P: MARKET UNCERTAINTIES FURTHER UNDERMINED CONFIDENCE. *S&P SAYS NO IMMEDIATE IMPACT ON ASIA SOVEREIGN RATINGS. *S&P: ASIA STABLE OUTLOOKS SUPPORTED BY SOUND DOMESTIC DEMAND.

Bloomberg: Tunas Lampung Expects 600 Billion Rupiah of Profit, Bisnis Says

Bloomberg: Bank CIMB Niaga’s First-Half Net Income Rises to 1.55 Tln Rupiah

Bloomberg: Bank Internasional Plans 500 Bln Rupiah Debt Offer, Bisnis Says

Bloomberg: Hanwha Group May Bid for Indonesia’s Sulfindo, MoneyToday Says

BLOOMBERG: *FAMILYMART TO OPEN FIRST STORE IN INDONESIA, SANKEI SAYS

Bloomberg: Emerging-Market Stocks Bull Rally Has Peaked, Deutsche Bank Says

[Dow Jones] Indonesian shares may continue to fall Monday on worries that S&P's downgrade of U.S. debt rating may further add to selling pressure in the U.S. markets. Traders expect the main index to find support at 3880 after it ended down 4.9% Friday at 3921.64. "I, however, expect that selloff here (in Indonesia) won't be as heavy as Friday as the Indonesian economy is sound and stronger than when it was hit by the 2008 crisis," says an analyst with PT Garuda Nusantara Capital. He expects the selloff will be brief and a steady IDR will likely give a support for a rebound. Commodity-related stocks which account for almost 30% of total market capitalization may lead falls on lower oil prices.

Further Losses Called For Indonesia Stocks
http://news.ino.com/headlines/?newsid=80720110059

Inilah Saham Pilihan Senin (8/8)
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1762773/inilah-saham-pilihan-senin-88

Rekomendasi Saham
Bursa Regional Kembali Rontok, IHSG Waspada
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/08/08/072309/1698518/6/bursa-regional-kembali-rontok-ihsg-waspada

IHSG Diprediksi Masih Melemah
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1762715/ihsg-diprediksi-masih-melemah

BMRI dan BBRI Dekati Harga Wajar
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1762805/bmri-dan-bbri-dekati-harga-wajar

ELTY Akan Fokus Garap Landbank
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1762708/elty-akan-fokus-garap-landbank

Manajemen SKYB Beli Saham SKYB Rp2,02M
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1762720/manajemen-skyb-beli-saham-skyb-rp202m

Bursa Asia Jatuh, Pascadowngrade Utang AS
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1762848/bursa-asia-jatuh-pascadowngrade-utang-as

Down Grade AS Sudah Basi Bagi IHSG
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1762807/down-grade-as-sudah-basi-bagi-ihsg

Saham Telkom Berpotensi Tembus Rp10.000
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1762858/saham-telkom-berpotensi-tembus-rp1000

Bank Permata Tuntaskan Akuisisi GE Finance
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1762863/bank-permata-tuntaskan-akuisisi-ge-finance

BUMI lanjutkan coal seam sendiri
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312769598/74837/BUMI-lanjutkan-coal-seam-sendiri

Emiten farmasi mendulang kinerja ciamik di semester I-2011
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312594380/74773/Emiten-farmasi-mendulang-kinerja-ciamik-di-semester-I-2011-

Kinerja INKP dan TKIM kurang memuaskan
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312595116/74774/Kinerja-INKP-dan-TKIM-kurang-memuaskan

KKGI gencar membuka blok baru
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312600745/74783/KKGI-gencar-membuka-blok-baru

Dalam sepekan, harga minyak merosot hingga 9,2%
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312614355/74789/Dalam-sepekan-harga-minyak-merosot-hingga-92

Dalam sepekan, indeks acuan emerging market terjungkal 8,5%
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312618151/74791/Dalam-sepekan-indeks-acuan-emerging-market-terjungkal-85

Ekstra waspada masuk bursa saham
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312760670/74820/Ekstra-waspada-masuk-bursa-saham

IPO Golden Energy akan mundur jadi awal tahun 2012
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312761046/74821/IPO-Golden-Energy-akan-mundur-jadi-awal-tahun-2012

KAEF tingkatkan produksi yodium
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312764583/74825/KAEF-tingkatkan-produksi-yodium-

JSMR rampungkan akuisisi tol Surabaya
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1312768645/74835/JSMR-rampungkan-akuisisi-tol-Surabaya

Saham Bank Berpeluang Menguat Lebih Cepat
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1762816/saham-bank-berpeluang-menguat-lebih-cepat

Kekhawatiran Resesi Double Dip Membesar
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1762707/kekhawatiran-resesi-double-dip-membesar

Awal Pekan, Pilih Saham Fokus Domestik
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1762591/awal-pekan-pilih-saham-fokus-domestik

Economic Update [ PDF ]
The first cut is the deepest? - by Lee Heng Guie
We were not surprised by S&P's cut in the US's credit rating (to AA+ from AAA) as S&P and the other two major credit agencies, Moody's and Fitch Rating had warned during Congress's gridlock over the debt ceiling that the country faced a downgrade if the deficit spending cut was not large enough. It is hard to predict the consequences of the downgrade given the size of the US economy, treasury market and the US dollar's status as a global reserve currency. We do not discount the possibility of short-term volatility in the financial markets, but likely to be short-lived. The Fed and US regulators confirmed that the risk weighting for Treasury bonds remains unchanged despite the downgrade.

Trades of the Day...
Fundamentally:
CIMB tidak terkejut dengan aksi Standard & Poor's yang menurunkan rating US dari AAA ke AA+ karena warning sejak debat debt limit beberapa minggu yang lalu. Sulit untuk memprediksi berapa dampak downgrade ini terhadap ekonomi dan USD. Sepertinya akan ada volatility di bursa saham yang sifatnya sementara. Bank sentral seluruh dunia menegaskan akan terus menyimpan US government bonds

CIMB mempertahankan rating Surya Citra Media (SCMA) pada TRADING SELL dengan target harga Rp6200 berdasarkan metode DCF. Induk usaha SCMA, yaitu EMTK telah menyelesaikan akuisisi IDKM setelah proses 4 tahun. Jajaran direksi IDKM juga telah dirombak. Namun karena valuasi SCMA yang telah mahal dan penurunan audience share memberikan alasan kami untuk bearish terhadap SCMA

Property developer PT Agung Podomoro Land Tbk (APLN) obtained about Rp3 trillion demand for bonds from investors. Hence, the developer is considering to upsize its bonds by 20% of its initial size at Rp800 billion to nearly Rp1 trillion on August 24 2011.Vice President at the company Indra Wijaya, as quoted by Bisnis Indonesia today, said the company has ended the bonds book building on last Friday. "According to joint lead underwriters,