Tuesday, September 27, 2011
@Get Ready For Capitulation (Technical Rebound): IHSG/ DJIA/ ASII/ AKRA/ BBRI/ ICBP/ GGRM/
IHSG: HOLD 10 Rekomendasi Saham BUY NEKAD (hingga 28-29/09; New Moon effect's) setelah IHSG gagal ditutup dibawah 3.219, berpeluang Rebound menuju resist 3.430/3.590
DJIA:
ASII:
AKRA:
BBRI:
GGRM:
ICBP:
Laporan & Rumor Saham Indonesia 27-09 (Refresh)
RTRS-INDONESIA'S CBANK SAYS SEES MORE ROOM TO CUT BI RATE
RTRS-INDONESIA'S CBANK SAYS SEES INFLATION PRESSURE EASING, SAYS CPI MAY BE BELOW 5 PCT THIS YEAR
BRPT FIRST HALF 2011 NET PROFIT MAY RISE BY 680% TO IDR240 BILLION.
JAKARTA (Dow Jones)--Indonesia's inflation has likely peaked in August and is
on track to come in at under 5.0% this year, providing the central bank with
room to cut the policy rate in the face of a potential global economic
slowdown, Bank Indonesia Director Perry Warjiyo said Tuesday."The global slowdown will impact the Indonesian economy. With slowing inflation, there's room to make an interest rate response, but the timing, sequencing and the magnitude of the cut are dynamic," Warjiyo told reporters on the sidelines of a central bank event. He said Bank Indonesia is revising down its forecast for portfolio inflows to near $10 billion for this year, from $12 billion previously, following the recent market selloff.
Bloomberg: Asian Stocks Gain Most Since Nov. 2009
Bloomberg: Sukuk Sales Drop 55% as Borrowing Costs Surge: Islamic Finance
Bloomberg: Indonesia Stock Index Rises 4.4%, Biggest Gain Since May 2010
Asing Net Buy, IHS Sesi I Ditutup Melesat 4,3%. Net foreign buy Rp135,44 miliar.
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778866/asing-net-buy-ihs-sesi-i-ditutup-melesat-43
IHSG Paling Perkasa di Asia
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/09/27/120846/1731264/6/ihsg-paling-perkasa-di-asia
Ini dia tiga bluechips penyokong indeks di sesi I
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317101245/78426/Ini-dia-tiga-bluechips-penyokong-indeks-di-sesi-I
Saham Eropa Diprediksi Dibuka Naik Tajam
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778875/saham-eropa-diprediksi-dibuka-naik-tajam
Sesi Dua : Pilih Saham Buruan Investor Asing
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778865/sesi-dua-pilih-saham-buruan-investor-asing
Astra Bagi Dividen Rp2,42 Triliun
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778813/astra-bagi-dividen-rp242-triliun
Saranacentral Akan Lepas 30% Saham ke Publik
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778878/saranacentral-akan-lepas-30-saham-ke-publik
INCO Optimistis Produksi & Penjualan Sesuai Target
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778858/inco-optimistis-produksi-penjualan-sesuai-target
Nico Canter Diangkat Jadi Dirut INCO
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778839/nico-canter-diangkat-jadi-dirut-inco
Panin Financial Tawarkan Saham Rights Issue Rp125
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778810/panin-financial-tawarkan-saham-rights-issue-rp125
Bapepam Beri Ijin Pra Efektif Rights Issue AMAG
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778815/bapepam-beri-ijin-pra-efektif-rights-issue-amag
Bapepam Berikan 'Lampu Hijau' Merger Matahari dan Meadow
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/09/27/120059/1731243/6/bapepam-berikan-lampu-hijau-merger-matahari-dan-meadow
3 Lembaga Pemeringkat Masih Memberi 'Nada Positif' untuk RI
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/09/27/104047/1731147/5/3-lembaga-pemeringkat-masih-memberi-nada-positif-untuk-ri
Mata uang Garuda perkasa seiring lonjakan pasar saham
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317094508/78408/Mata-uang-Garuda-perkasa-seiring-lonjakan-pasar-saham
Meski harga obligasi mulai menanjak, CDS Indonesia berpotensi tembus 500
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317099205/78423/Meski-harga-obligasi-mulai-menanjak-CDS-Indonesia-berpotensi-tembus-500
Rencana pembagian dividen bikin saham ASII melaju ke level tertinggi tujuh pekan
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317096883/78417/Rencana-pembagian-dividen-bikin-saham-ASII-melaju-ke-level-tertinggi-tujuh-pekan
Saham WIKA melaju untuk kali pertama dalam tujuh hari
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317096285/78414/Saham-WIKA-melaju-untuk-kali-pertama-dalam-tujuh-hari
UNTR optimistis dongkrak produksi batubara hingga 84 juta ton di 2011
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317095807/78413/UNTR-optimistis-dongkrak-produksi-batubara-hingga-84-juta-ton-di-2011
Rencana menaikkan tarif tol mendorong saham JSMR ke level tertinggi 2 bulan
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317094054/78406/Rencana-menaikkan-tarif-tol-mendorong-saham-JSMR-ke-level-tertinggi-2-bulan
Rencana pembatasan ekspor timah menyebabkan saham TINS membumbung
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317092523/78402/Rencana-pembatasan-ekspor-timah-menyebabkan-saham-TINS-membumbung
Research Today: Astra and Indomobil, robust demand for trucks
Sarina has just written an interesting note on robust demand for trucks in Indo. Demand for commercial vehicles is stronger than passenger cars. This is clearly an indication of a surge in domestic business activities.
We have been very early in highlighting the pick up in FDI will provide an offset to portfolio outflows and underpinning the balance of payments.
Astra (ASII IJ) and Indomobil (IMAS IJ) are key listed beneficiaries given their strong presence in this segment. Three players control 95% of the market; Krama Yudha (non-listed distributor of Mitsubishi) with 42% share, ASII with 30.5% share, and IMAS with 23% share.
It is worth noting, however, that Suzuki only contributes 2% to IMAS revenue, given that IMAS only has 10% stake in Suzukis manufacturing, distribution and retailing (as a comparison ASII owns 100% stake in Toyota distribution and retailing, thus ASII captures the distribution upside). 75% of IMAS revenue comes from Nissan. For ASII, about 17-20% of revenues for 4-wheeler comes from commercial vehicles and 4-wheeler vehicle sales contribute 26% of ASII total revenues. This means that commercial vehicles contribute 4.4-5.2% of ASII total revenues.
The risk here is that Indos interest rate sensitive stocks like ASII could underperform Indian and Chinese peers, as India and China have more rooms + ammunition to loosen monetary policy going forward.
Key Points fromthereport:
* Commercial vehicles take up 33% of 4W demand. Sales grew 21% YoY in 8M11 to 193,019 units. This was faster than the 11% YoY growth in passenger cars sales.
* Demand is domestic-driven, where net-exports only at 10% of the market.
* Our forecast is 10-11% pa growth for total car demand, but we believe the upside will come from the FDIs, and rising income & middle class.
* Three players control 95% of the market: Krama Yudha (Non-listed distributor of Mitsubishi) with 42% share; ASII with 30.5% share from selling Toyota, Daihatsu, UD Trucks, & Isuzu; and IMAS with 23% share from selling Hino, Suzuki, & Nissan.
* Most brands are expanding production capacity; currently at high utilization rate.
* ASII and IMAS have low forex exposure with healthy balance sheet.
ADRO fr CLSA::: Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) set to buy a third/fourth coal mine this year? Last month Adaro bought 2 coal mines (75% of PT Mustika Indah Permai and 10.2% of PT Bhakti Energi Persada) and they are planning to buy one to two additional coal mines by the end of this year. Comment Adaro has underperformed peers since the announcement of the acquisitions during late August. We rate the stock Underperform whilst uncertainty over a legal challenge for one of the purchased concessions from fellow coal miner PT Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ) remains unresolved.
PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk (CPIN) intends to put Rp2.5 trillion investment next year, using Rp1.8 trillion loan it secured from 13 banks and the remaining is from internally generated cash flow.
Charoen President Director Thomas Effendy said the poultry will be allocated of Rp1 trillion and Rp1 trillion for breeding farm. "The remaining investment is aimed to put in food sector." In 2012, Charoen plans to construct 2 facilities in Cirebon and Bali. A new facility in Lampung will be constructed. Charoen manages seven production facilities with a total capacity of 3.5 million tons a year.
Agenda::: 27 September Cum Right Issue KIJA 219:500 (250) (ditunda?), INCO RUPSLB, RUPSLB KIAS, 28 September BBRI RUPSLB, MLBI RUPSLB, SMGR RUPSLB, Cum dev ITMG 1,168, "Update: Tarif tol akan naik mulai tgl 28 sept 11 sekitar 8% - 12%."…. TBLA cum dev Rp20, BUDI ACID JAYA DIVIDEND, RP 8 CUM, cum dev HEXA $0.0206
Bloomberg: Wijaya Karya Gains for First Time in 7 Days on Project Report
[Dow Jones] Citigroup forecasts the USD/IDR at 9,300 three months ahead, and at 8,900 in six to 12 months. It notes the IDR has been dragged down by similar forces plaguing KRW, that is, the abrupt unwinding of overcrowded foreign positions in money and bond markets. "Although outflows so far have mostly been concentrated at the short end, this could spread quite easily if tensions in global markets escalate as we expect." The central bank's foreign reserve cover (seven months of imports and short-term external debt) has improved significantly from pre-Lehman levels (4.7 months), and has been deployed in recent central bank interventions; but this matters less in the global environment that we are anticipating, the house says. The pair is now at 9,050. (i-made.sentana@dowjones.com)
[Dow Jones] Tin prices are responding to production shut downs in Indonesia, the world's largest tin exporter. LME 3-month tin was the only metal to finish in positive territory Monday. "The main reason appears to be the very fast reaction of some Indonesian tin smelters on Banka island, who have already shut production as the fall in prices is making their operations unprofitable," says Standard Bank analyst Leon Westgate. He says miners' unwillingness to sell ore at lower prices is another reason behind the halt. The smelters, grouped into PT Bangka Belitung Timah Sejahtera, are targeting prices of $23,000/ton before considering returning to production. Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch says the Indonesian Tin Industry Association believes Indonesian tin exports will halve to 40,000 tons should prices remain low for an extended period. LME 3-month tin is at $20,900/ton, up $550 from its previous close. (arpan.mukherjee@dowjones.com)
Bloomberg: *JASA MARGA GAINS MOST IN 2 MONTHS AFTER TARIFF INCREASE REPORT
Bloomberg: Palm Oil Gains as Much as 1.3% to 2,943 Ringgit a Metric Ton
Bloomberg: Indonesia Stocks May See ‘Temporary Rebound’: Technical Analysis
Bloomberg: Indonesia to Halt Tin Exports to Support Prices; Futures Rally
Bloomberg: Asian Shares Snap Three Days of Losses as Materials, Banks Gain
Bloomberg: Rubber Futures Advance as Much as 4.7% in Tokyo
Bloomberg: Jasa Marga May Increase Toll-Road Tarrifs by 11%, Daily Reports
Inilah Rekomendasi Saham Pilihan Selasa (27/9)
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778659/inilah-rekomendasi-saham-pilihan-selasa-279
Rekomendasi Saham
Bursa Global Makin Membaik, IHSG Siap Meniru
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/09/27/072126/1731007/6/bursa-global-makin-membaik-ihsg-siap-meniru
Penjualan Naik, Mantain Buy Saham BUMI
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778799/penjualan-naik-mantain-buy-saham-bumi
Bagi Dividen, Hold Dulu Saham ASII
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778798/bagi-dividen-hold-dulu-saham-asii
Jepang Siap Bantu Bailout Utang Yunani
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778801/jepang-siap-bantu-bailout-utang-yunani
Saatnya Investor Masuk ke Bursa Saham
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778647/saatnya-investor-masuk-ke-bursa-saham
Inilah Saham-saham Yang Akan Rebound Hari Ini
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778797/inilah-saham-saham-yang-akan-rebound-hari-ini
Penurunan Harga Emas, Tak Pengaruhi ANTM
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778675/penurunan-harga-emas-tak-pengaruhi-antm
Saatnya 'Buy on Weakness' Selektif
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778639/saatnya-buy-on-weakness-selektif
Saham MAPI Berpotensi Menuju Rp5.500
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778789/saham-mapi-berpotensi-menuju-rp5500
Cadangan Emas RI 'Tinggal' 30 Tahun
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/09/27/073123/1731012/4/cadangan-emas-ri-tinggal-30-tahun
Wall Street Akhirnya Menguat 2% Lebih
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/09/27/065507/1731000/6/wall-street-akhirnya-menguat-2-lebih
Semester I-2011, laba bersih LPPF meningkat 99%
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317087145/78391/Semester-I-2011-laba-bersih-LPPF-meningkat-99
CPIN siapkan ekspansi besar-besaran
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317086271/78389/CPIN-siapkan-ekspansi-besar-besaran
Sepanjang Agustus lalu, PTPP raih kontrak baru senilai Rp 744 miliar
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317062526/78374/Sepanjang-Agustus-lalu-PTPP-raih-kontrak-baru-senilai-Rp-744-miliar
Pasar bergejolak, BBTN tetap akan terbitkan KIK-EBA
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317048329/78370/Pasar-bergejolak-BBTN-tetap-akan-terbitkan-KIK-EBA
Tiga penjamin emisi sedang negosiasi jual sisa saham GIAA
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317042756/78365/Tiga-penjamin-emisi-sedang-negosiasi-jual-sisa-saham-GIAA
Penawaran saham perdana anak usaha KRAS kembali tertunda
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317043844/78366/Penawaran-saham-perdana-anak-usaha-KRAS-kembali-tertunda
Obligasi FAST oversubscribed empat kali
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317038443/78362/Obligasi-FAST-oversubscribed-empat-kali
Trades of the Day... Fundamentally: CIMB mempertahankan rating Bukit Asam (PTBA) pada OUTPERFORM dengan target harga Rp21,975 (dari Rp22,700), berdasarkan 11.3x CY12 P/E. Katalis akan datang dari perkembangan projek rel kereta api dan volume yang lebih baik. Kami mempertahankan rating OUTPERFORM karena defensive earnings quality dan valuasi yang menarik pada 8.1x FY12 P/E. Namun, kami telah menurunkan EPS 2011-13 sebesar 2.5-3.5% karena asumsi sales target yang lebih rendah 3.2% ke 14.8MT. Exposure yang tinggi terhadap market domestik (60% dari sales) memberikan defensive earning karena pasar ekspor yang melemah. Selesainya projek pembangkit listrik tahun ini juga memberikan tambahan penjualan. Technically: Bakrie Sumatra Plantations (UNSP IJ; IDR 275; Sell on strength) – data lainny
Bukit Asam [ PDF ] Home is where the demand is - by Peter P. Sutedja, CFA / Erindra Krisnawan (PTBA IJ / PTBA.JK, OUTPERFORM - Maintained, Rp14,750 - Tgt. Rp21,875, Coal Mining)
Maintain Outperform; lower price target of Rp21,875. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating given PTBA's defensive earnings quality and undemanding valuation of 7.6x CY12 P/E despite changes in our 2011-13 assumptions for sales volume, ASP, production cash costs, interest on cash and forex. Our 2011-13 EPS forecasts are cut by 2.5%-3.5% resulting in a lower target price of Rp21,875, down from Rp22,700 previously, still based on 11.3x CY12 P/E. Catalysts can be expected from the development of railway projects and better than expected railway transportation volume.
PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk memperkirakan kenaikan tarif tol akan mencapai sekitar 11%. Dari 14 ruas tol yang rencananya naik, 11 ruas tol di antaranya merupakan milik Jasa Marga.
PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk (CPIN) intends to put Rp2.5 trillion investment next year, using Rp1.8 trillion loan it secured from 13 banks and the remaining is from internally generated cash flow. Charoen President Director Thomas Effendy said the poultry will be allocated of Rp1 trillion and Rp1 trillion for breeding farm. "The remaining investment is aimed to put in food sector." In 2012, Charoen plans to construct 2 facilities in Cirebon and Bali. A new facility in Lampung will be constructed. Charoen manages seven production facilities with a total capacity of 3.5 million tons a year.
Indonesian retailer PT Matahari Department Store Tbk recorded a 99.08% jump in net profit during the first half of this year as revenue rose, underpinned by stronger demand in the consumption sector. Matahari booked Rp258.98 billion net profit in 1H 2011 from Rp130.09 billion in 1H 2010. Operating profit of the retailer, that is controlled by Lippo Group, surged 81.08% to Rp324.16 billion from Rp179.01 billion. Gross profit increased 16.19% to Rp1.22 trillion from Rp1.05 trillion. Matahari posted a 12.73% increase in net revenue to Rp1.86 trillion from Rp1.65 trillion.
Nikkei futures wait for correction and if break up again above resistant at 8392 then take buy at 8395 until target 8495 and stop loss at 8335, bullish target probability until 8612. (HP)
RTRS-INDONESIA'S CBANK SAYS SEES INFLATION PRESSURE EASING, SAYS CPI MAY BE BELOW 5 PCT THIS YEAR
BRPT FIRST HALF 2011 NET PROFIT MAY RISE BY 680% TO IDR240 BILLION.
JAKARTA (Dow Jones)--Indonesia's inflation has likely peaked in August and is
on track to come in at under 5.0% this year, providing the central bank with
room to cut the policy rate in the face of a potential global economic
slowdown, Bank Indonesia Director Perry Warjiyo said Tuesday."The global slowdown will impact the Indonesian economy. With slowing inflation, there's room to make an interest rate response, but the timing, sequencing and the magnitude of the cut are dynamic," Warjiyo told reporters on the sidelines of a central bank event. He said Bank Indonesia is revising down its forecast for portfolio inflows to near $10 billion for this year, from $12 billion previously, following the recent market selloff.
Bloomberg: Asian Stocks Gain Most Since Nov. 2009
Bloomberg: Sukuk Sales Drop 55% as Borrowing Costs Surge: Islamic Finance
Bloomberg: Indonesia Stock Index Rises 4.4%, Biggest Gain Since May 2010
Asing Net Buy, IHS Sesi I Ditutup Melesat 4,3%. Net foreign buy Rp135,44 miliar.
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778866/asing-net-buy-ihs-sesi-i-ditutup-melesat-43
IHSG Paling Perkasa di Asia
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/09/27/120846/1731264/6/ihsg-paling-perkasa-di-asia
Ini dia tiga bluechips penyokong indeks di sesi I
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317101245/78426/Ini-dia-tiga-bluechips-penyokong-indeks-di-sesi-I
Saham Eropa Diprediksi Dibuka Naik Tajam
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778875/saham-eropa-diprediksi-dibuka-naik-tajam
Sesi Dua : Pilih Saham Buruan Investor Asing
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778865/sesi-dua-pilih-saham-buruan-investor-asing
Astra Bagi Dividen Rp2,42 Triliun
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778813/astra-bagi-dividen-rp242-triliun
Saranacentral Akan Lepas 30% Saham ke Publik
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778878/saranacentral-akan-lepas-30-saham-ke-publik
INCO Optimistis Produksi & Penjualan Sesuai Target
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778858/inco-optimistis-produksi-penjualan-sesuai-target
Nico Canter Diangkat Jadi Dirut INCO
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778839/nico-canter-diangkat-jadi-dirut-inco
Panin Financial Tawarkan Saham Rights Issue Rp125
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778810/panin-financial-tawarkan-saham-rights-issue-rp125
Bapepam Beri Ijin Pra Efektif Rights Issue AMAG
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778815/bapepam-beri-ijin-pra-efektif-rights-issue-amag
Bapepam Berikan 'Lampu Hijau' Merger Matahari dan Meadow
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/09/27/120059/1731243/6/bapepam-berikan-lampu-hijau-merger-matahari-dan-meadow
3 Lembaga Pemeringkat Masih Memberi 'Nada Positif' untuk RI
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/09/27/104047/1731147/5/3-lembaga-pemeringkat-masih-memberi-nada-positif-untuk-ri
Mata uang Garuda perkasa seiring lonjakan pasar saham
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317094508/78408/Mata-uang-Garuda-perkasa-seiring-lonjakan-pasar-saham
Meski harga obligasi mulai menanjak, CDS Indonesia berpotensi tembus 500
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317099205/78423/Meski-harga-obligasi-mulai-menanjak-CDS-Indonesia-berpotensi-tembus-500
Rencana pembagian dividen bikin saham ASII melaju ke level tertinggi tujuh pekan
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317096883/78417/Rencana-pembagian-dividen-bikin-saham-ASII-melaju-ke-level-tertinggi-tujuh-pekan
Saham WIKA melaju untuk kali pertama dalam tujuh hari
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317096285/78414/Saham-WIKA-melaju-untuk-kali-pertama-dalam-tujuh-hari
UNTR optimistis dongkrak produksi batubara hingga 84 juta ton di 2011
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317095807/78413/UNTR-optimistis-dongkrak-produksi-batubara-hingga-84-juta-ton-di-2011
Rencana menaikkan tarif tol mendorong saham JSMR ke level tertinggi 2 bulan
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317094054/78406/Rencana-menaikkan-tarif-tol-mendorong-saham-JSMR-ke-level-tertinggi-2-bulan
Rencana pembatasan ekspor timah menyebabkan saham TINS membumbung
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317092523/78402/Rencana-pembatasan-ekspor-timah-menyebabkan-saham-TINS-membumbung
Research Today: Astra and Indomobil, robust demand for trucks
Sarina has just written an interesting note on robust demand for trucks in Indo. Demand for commercial vehicles is stronger than passenger cars. This is clearly an indication of a surge in domestic business activities.
We have been very early in highlighting the pick up in FDI will provide an offset to portfolio outflows and underpinning the balance of payments.
Astra (ASII IJ) and Indomobil (IMAS IJ) are key listed beneficiaries given their strong presence in this segment. Three players control 95% of the market; Krama Yudha (non-listed distributor of Mitsubishi) with 42% share, ASII with 30.5% share, and IMAS with 23% share.
It is worth noting, however, that Suzuki only contributes 2% to IMAS revenue, given that IMAS only has 10% stake in Suzukis manufacturing, distribution and retailing (as a comparison ASII owns 100% stake in Toyota distribution and retailing, thus ASII captures the distribution upside). 75% of IMAS revenue comes from Nissan. For ASII, about 17-20% of revenues for 4-wheeler comes from commercial vehicles and 4-wheeler vehicle sales contribute 26% of ASII total revenues. This means that commercial vehicles contribute 4.4-5.2% of ASII total revenues.
The risk here is that Indos interest rate sensitive stocks like ASII could underperform Indian and Chinese peers, as India and China have more rooms + ammunition to loosen monetary policy going forward.
Key Points fromthereport:
* Commercial vehicles take up 33% of 4W demand. Sales grew 21% YoY in 8M11 to 193,019 units. This was faster than the 11% YoY growth in passenger cars sales.
* Demand is domestic-driven, where net-exports only at 10% of the market.
* Our forecast is 10-11% pa growth for total car demand, but we believe the upside will come from the FDIs, and rising income & middle class.
* Three players control 95% of the market: Krama Yudha (Non-listed distributor of Mitsubishi) with 42% share; ASII with 30.5% share from selling Toyota, Daihatsu, UD Trucks, & Isuzu; and IMAS with 23% share from selling Hino, Suzuki, & Nissan.
* Most brands are expanding production capacity; currently at high utilization rate.
* ASII and IMAS have low forex exposure with healthy balance sheet.
ADRO fr CLSA::: Adaro Energy (ADRO IJ) set to buy a third/fourth coal mine this year? Last month Adaro bought 2 coal mines (75% of PT Mustika Indah Permai and 10.2% of PT Bhakti Energi Persada) and they are planning to buy one to two additional coal mines by the end of this year. Comment Adaro has underperformed peers since the announcement of the acquisitions during late August. We rate the stock Underperform whilst uncertainty over a legal challenge for one of the purchased concessions from fellow coal miner PT Bukit Asam (PTBA IJ) remains unresolved.
PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk (CPIN) intends to put Rp2.5 trillion investment next year, using Rp1.8 trillion loan it secured from 13 banks and the remaining is from internally generated cash flow.
Charoen President Director Thomas Effendy said the poultry will be allocated of Rp1 trillion and Rp1 trillion for breeding farm. "The remaining investment is aimed to put in food sector." In 2012, Charoen plans to construct 2 facilities in Cirebon and Bali. A new facility in Lampung will be constructed. Charoen manages seven production facilities with a total capacity of 3.5 million tons a year.
Agenda::: 27 September Cum Right Issue KIJA 219:500 (250) (ditunda?), INCO RUPSLB, RUPSLB KIAS, 28 September BBRI RUPSLB, MLBI RUPSLB, SMGR RUPSLB, Cum dev ITMG 1,168, "Update: Tarif tol akan naik mulai tgl 28 sept 11 sekitar 8% - 12%."…. TBLA cum dev Rp20, BUDI ACID JAYA DIVIDEND, RP 8 CUM, cum dev HEXA $0.0206
Bloomberg: Wijaya Karya Gains for First Time in 7 Days on Project Report
[Dow Jones] Citigroup forecasts the USD/IDR at 9,300 three months ahead, and at 8,900 in six to 12 months. It notes the IDR has been dragged down by similar forces plaguing KRW, that is, the abrupt unwinding of overcrowded foreign positions in money and bond markets. "Although outflows so far have mostly been concentrated at the short end, this could spread quite easily if tensions in global markets escalate as we expect." The central bank's foreign reserve cover (seven months of imports and short-term external debt) has improved significantly from pre-Lehman levels (4.7 months), and has been deployed in recent central bank interventions; but this matters less in the global environment that we are anticipating, the house says. The pair is now at 9,050. (i-made.sentana@dowjones.com)
[Dow Jones] Tin prices are responding to production shut downs in Indonesia, the world's largest tin exporter. LME 3-month tin was the only metal to finish in positive territory Monday. "The main reason appears to be the very fast reaction of some Indonesian tin smelters on Banka island, who have already shut production as the fall in prices is making their operations unprofitable," says Standard Bank analyst Leon Westgate. He says miners' unwillingness to sell ore at lower prices is another reason behind the halt. The smelters, grouped into PT Bangka Belitung Timah Sejahtera, are targeting prices of $23,000/ton before considering returning to production. Commerzbank analyst Carsten Fritsch says the Indonesian Tin Industry Association believes Indonesian tin exports will halve to 40,000 tons should prices remain low for an extended period. LME 3-month tin is at $20,900/ton, up $550 from its previous close. (arpan.mukherjee@dowjones.com)
Bloomberg: *JASA MARGA GAINS MOST IN 2 MONTHS AFTER TARIFF INCREASE REPORT
Bloomberg: Palm Oil Gains as Much as 1.3% to 2,943 Ringgit a Metric Ton
Bloomberg: Indonesia Stocks May See ‘Temporary Rebound’: Technical Analysis
Bloomberg: Indonesia to Halt Tin Exports to Support Prices; Futures Rally
Bloomberg: Asian Shares Snap Three Days of Losses as Materials, Banks Gain
Bloomberg: Rubber Futures Advance as Much as 4.7% in Tokyo
Bloomberg: Jasa Marga May Increase Toll-Road Tarrifs by 11%, Daily Reports
Inilah Rekomendasi Saham Pilihan Selasa (27/9)
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778659/inilah-rekomendasi-saham-pilihan-selasa-279
Rekomendasi Saham
Bursa Global Makin Membaik, IHSG Siap Meniru
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/09/27/072126/1731007/6/bursa-global-makin-membaik-ihsg-siap-meniru
Penjualan Naik, Mantain Buy Saham BUMI
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778799/penjualan-naik-mantain-buy-saham-bumi
Bagi Dividen, Hold Dulu Saham ASII
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778798/bagi-dividen-hold-dulu-saham-asii
Jepang Siap Bantu Bailout Utang Yunani
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778801/jepang-siap-bantu-bailout-utang-yunani
Saatnya Investor Masuk ke Bursa Saham
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778647/saatnya-investor-masuk-ke-bursa-saham
Inilah Saham-saham Yang Akan Rebound Hari Ini
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778797/inilah-saham-saham-yang-akan-rebound-hari-ini
Penurunan Harga Emas, Tak Pengaruhi ANTM
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778675/penurunan-harga-emas-tak-pengaruhi-antm
Saatnya 'Buy on Weakness' Selektif
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778639/saatnya-buy-on-weakness-selektif
Saham MAPI Berpotensi Menuju Rp5.500
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1778789/saham-mapi-berpotensi-menuju-rp5500
Cadangan Emas RI 'Tinggal' 30 Tahun
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/09/27/073123/1731012/4/cadangan-emas-ri-tinggal-30-tahun
Wall Street Akhirnya Menguat 2% Lebih
http://finance.detik.com/read/2011/09/27/065507/1731000/6/wall-street-akhirnya-menguat-2-lebih
Semester I-2011, laba bersih LPPF meningkat 99%
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317087145/78391/Semester-I-2011-laba-bersih-LPPF-meningkat-99
CPIN siapkan ekspansi besar-besaran
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317086271/78389/CPIN-siapkan-ekspansi-besar-besaran
Sepanjang Agustus lalu, PTPP raih kontrak baru senilai Rp 744 miliar
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317062526/78374/Sepanjang-Agustus-lalu-PTPP-raih-kontrak-baru-senilai-Rp-744-miliar
Pasar bergejolak, BBTN tetap akan terbitkan KIK-EBA
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317048329/78370/Pasar-bergejolak-BBTN-tetap-akan-terbitkan-KIK-EBA
Tiga penjamin emisi sedang negosiasi jual sisa saham GIAA
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317042756/78365/Tiga-penjamin-emisi-sedang-negosiasi-jual-sisa-saham-GIAA
Penawaran saham perdana anak usaha KRAS kembali tertunda
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317043844/78366/Penawaran-saham-perdana-anak-usaha-KRAS-kembali-tertunda
Obligasi FAST oversubscribed empat kali
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/v2/read/1317038443/78362/Obligasi-FAST-oversubscribed-empat-kali
Trades of the Day... Fundamentally: CIMB mempertahankan rating Bukit Asam (PTBA) pada OUTPERFORM dengan target harga Rp21,975 (dari Rp22,700), berdasarkan 11.3x CY12 P/E. Katalis akan datang dari perkembangan projek rel kereta api dan volume yang lebih baik. Kami mempertahankan rating OUTPERFORM karena defensive earnings quality dan valuasi yang menarik pada 8.1x FY12 P/E. Namun, kami telah menurunkan EPS 2011-13 sebesar 2.5-3.5% karena asumsi sales target yang lebih rendah 3.2% ke 14.8MT. Exposure yang tinggi terhadap market domestik (60% dari sales) memberikan defensive earning karena pasar ekspor yang melemah. Selesainya projek pembangkit listrik tahun ini juga memberikan tambahan penjualan. Technically: Bakrie Sumatra Plantations (UNSP IJ; IDR 275; Sell on strength) – data lainny
Bukit Asam [ PDF ] Home is where the demand is - by Peter P. Sutedja, CFA / Erindra Krisnawan (PTBA IJ / PTBA.JK, OUTPERFORM - Maintained, Rp14,750 - Tgt. Rp21,875, Coal Mining)
Maintain Outperform; lower price target of Rp21,875. We maintain our OUTPERFORM rating given PTBA's defensive earnings quality and undemanding valuation of 7.6x CY12 P/E despite changes in our 2011-13 assumptions for sales volume, ASP, production cash costs, interest on cash and forex. Our 2011-13 EPS forecasts are cut by 2.5%-3.5% resulting in a lower target price of Rp21,875, down from Rp22,700 previously, still based on 11.3x CY12 P/E. Catalysts can be expected from the development of railway projects and better than expected railway transportation volume.
PT Jasa Marga (Persero) Tbk memperkirakan kenaikan tarif tol akan mencapai sekitar 11%. Dari 14 ruas tol yang rencananya naik, 11 ruas tol di antaranya merupakan milik Jasa Marga.
PT Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk (CPIN) intends to put Rp2.5 trillion investment next year, using Rp1.8 trillion loan it secured from 13 banks and the remaining is from internally generated cash flow. Charoen President Director Thomas Effendy said the poultry will be allocated of Rp1 trillion and Rp1 trillion for breeding farm. "The remaining investment is aimed to put in food sector." In 2012, Charoen plans to construct 2 facilities in Cirebon and Bali. A new facility in Lampung will be constructed. Charoen manages seven production facilities with a total capacity of 3.5 million tons a year.
Indonesian retailer PT Matahari Department Store Tbk recorded a 99.08% jump in net profit during the first half of this year as revenue rose, underpinned by stronger demand in the consumption sector. Matahari booked Rp258.98 billion net profit in 1H 2011 from Rp130.09 billion in 1H 2010. Operating profit of the retailer, that is controlled by Lippo Group, surged 81.08% to Rp324.16 billion from Rp179.01 billion. Gross profit increased 16.19% to Rp1.22 trillion from Rp1.05 trillion. Matahari posted a 12.73% increase in net revenue to Rp1.86 trillion from Rp1.65 trillion.
Nikkei futures wait for correction and if break up again above resistant at 8392 then take buy at 8395 until target 8495 and stop loss at 8335, bullish target probability until 8612. (HP)
After A Success CTA III Surabaya, Workshop CTA IV Basic '3S' (Simple-Special-Super): 8 Okt 2011 in Jakarta
Acara diadakan dari jam 09.00 - 17.00 WIB, 08 Oktober2011 di Hotel Sofyan Tebet, Jl. Dr. Soepomo S.H, Jakarta 12810, (021) 8295691.
Dapatkan harga special Rp 1.500.000,00. Early Bird Sebelum 3 Oktober 2011 menjadi Rp 1.250.000.
Harga sudah termasuk Materi (PDF & Fotocopy) / Coffee Break + Lunch / Sertifikat / Free Wifi (harap membawa laptop).
Daftarkan di Hitsaham@yahoo.com: Isi Nama / Alamat / No Hp.
Transfer ke Rek BCA: Andri Zakaria S. No: 6640.144.660. KC: ITC Kuningan Jkt. No Acc Bank Mandiri No 124000.5130134 An: Andri Zakarias.
Lampirkan foto copy transferan anda ke email: Hitsaham@yahoo.com
Keterangan lebih lanjut bisa dilihat di: http://hitsaham.blogspot.com/
Tujuan:
* Entry Buy & Sell better level dengan agresif
* Strategy Buy & Hold & Switching
* Untuk menghitung target Kenaikan & Penurunan
* Mengetahui kekuatan trend pasar (Buying Power vs Selling Power)
* Membaca Fase Akumulasi vs Distribusi
* Mengenal Bandarmology + Strategy Buy on Rumor / News
* Mengetahui analisa Intermarket (Flash Trader & Skenario Global)
* Mengetahui Manajemen Resiko dengan Risk vs Reward
Materi (Saham + FX + Commodity) :
* Japanese Style Trading
- Basic Candlesticks (Bonus: A New Version of Candle)
- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
- Heiken Ashi
* Fibonacci & New Pivots
* Combo Trading Systems (ADX vs Stochastic Oscillator vs MACD vs M.A)
* Bandarmologi & Intermarket Analysis + Psychology Market
* Portfolio Management
Track Record CTA Buy Nekad I - V & Buy & Hold 2010 - 2011:
http://hitsaham.blogspot.com/search/label/Track%20Record%20CTA
Dapatkan harga special Rp 1.500.000,00. Early Bird Sebelum 3 Oktober 2011 menjadi Rp 1.250.000.
Harga sudah termasuk Materi (PDF & Fotocopy) / Coffee Break + Lunch / Sertifikat / Free Wifi (harap membawa laptop).
Daftarkan di Hitsaham@yahoo.com: Isi Nama / Alamat / No Hp.
Transfer ke Rek BCA: Andri Zakaria S. No: 6640.144.660. KC: ITC Kuningan Jkt. No Acc Bank Mandiri No 124000.5130134 An: Andri Zakarias.
Lampirkan foto copy transferan anda ke email: Hitsaham@yahoo.com
Keterangan lebih lanjut bisa dilihat di: http://hitsaham.blogspot.com/
Ditujukan untuk: Pemula/ Trader/ Investor/ Karyawan/ Sales-Marketing Saham
Tujuan:
* Entry Buy & Sell better level dengan agresif
* Strategy Buy & Hold & Switching
* Untuk menghitung target Kenaikan & Penurunan
* Mengetahui kekuatan trend pasar (Buying Power vs Selling Power)
* Membaca Fase Akumulasi vs Distribusi
* Mengenal Bandarmology + Strategy Buy on Rumor / News
* Mengetahui analisa Intermarket (Flash Trader & Skenario Global)
* Mengetahui Manajemen Resiko dengan Risk vs Reward
Materi (Saham + FX + Commodity) :
* Japanese Style Trading
- Basic Candlesticks (Bonus: A New Version of Candle)
- Ichimoku Kinko Hyo
- Heiken Ashi
* Fibonacci & New Pivots
* Combo Trading Systems (ADX vs Stochastic Oscillator vs MACD vs M.A)
* Bandarmologi & Intermarket Analysis + Psychology Market
* Portfolio Management
Track Record CTA Buy Nekad I - V & Buy & Hold 2010 - 2011:
http://hitsaham.blogspot.com/search/label/Track%20Record%20CTA
Mohon maaf untuk Workshop Combo Advanced Japanese T.A Style & Western T.A di di bulan Oktober, rencananya di Medan, terpaksa kami batalkan.
Workshop CTA III (24-25 Sept 2011) Di TS Suites Sutos Surabaya
Workshop di Banjarmasin/ Puri Indah/ CTA Hitsaham I & II di 2011:
Multi-trillion plan to save the eurozone being prepared
BREAKING NEWS: DJIA HIT +212 Point On The News (27/09: 02.15 wib)
Official: Detailed Plan In Works On Leveraging EFSF Funds -CNBC. A detailed plan to leverage money in the euro-zone bailout fund is in an advanced stage of development, CNBC's Steve Liesman reported Monday, citing a European financial official. The plan would use a portion of money from the fund, known as the European Financial Stability Fund, to shore up capital levels in European banks. Another portion of it would be used as seed money for a European Investment Bank, CNBC said. The EIB would then form a special-purpose vehicle that would issue bonds and buy European sovereign debt, according to the CNBC report. Those bonds would then be used as collateral at the European Central Bank, the report added. Officials are awaiting the EFSF's approval by euro-zone governments before they announce the plan's details, according to the report.
Website: www.cnbc.com
(Dow Jones) Detailing its latest stimulus plan, dubbed "Operation Twist," the Fed said it will buy and sell a total of $44B worth of Treasury securities each month through 13 purchases and six sales. The Treasurys market showed no reaction, as the overarching plan was announced last Wednesday. Benchmark 10-year notes down 26/32 to yield 1.895%. Still, analysts saying the interesting detail is that the Fed will be buying $13B in long bonds each month, exactly the same amount of 30-year bonds that are auctioned each month. This will take a significant amount of supply out of that end of the market.
Multi-trillion plan to save the eurozone being prepared
European officials are working on a grand plan to restore confidence in the single currency area that would involve a massive bank recapitalisation, giving the bail-out fund several trillion euros of firepower, and a possible Greek default.
Read More: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/8786665/Multi-trillion-plan-to-save-the-eurozone-being-prepared.html
Twist Paves The Way For QE III
Earlier this week the Federal Reserve ignited a firestorm in the global markets by admitting that the U.S. economy is facing downside risks. Although it continues to sugar coat the unpleasant reality, never has such a stunningly obvious statement resulted is so much turmoil.
But many of those who oppose QE3 do so because they believe the economy doesn't need more stimulus not because the stimulus itself is causing the economic weakness. As a result when the economy deteriorates, support for QE III could grow. In the end QE3 will likely be far more popular than another bank bailout (possibly to be called TARP II), which may be on the table if the Fed fails to rescue the banks it may be pushing over the edge with the Twist.
America's debt woe is worse than Greece's
Boston, Massachussetts (CNN) -- Our government is utterly broke. There are signs everywhere one looks. Social Security can no longer afford to send us our annual benefit statements. The House can no longer afford its congressional pages. The Pentagon can no longer afford the pension and health care benefits of retired service members. NASA is no longer planning a manned mission to Mars.
Read More: http://edition.cnn.com/2011/09/19/opinion/kotlikoff-us-debt-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_t2
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