Tuesday, February 28, 2012

Our Next "Lehman Moment" is Coming Fast

by Shah Gilani, Editor, Wall Street Insights & Indictments
A crash is coming - and maybe sooner than you think. Indeed, respected analyst Shah Gilani
thinks we're facing a possible financial meltdown, a "hard landing" in China, and an all-out collapse of the Eurozone in 2012.

So what can you do?
Brace yourself for what Shah calls our next "Lehman moment."
And prepare to make a killing...

This is a bear market!
Capital Preservation is Key!
Cash is King!
Survival first, make money afterwards!
Patience will be rewarded when the Time is Right!

A crash signal or alert! Hindenburg Omen is an indicator used to predict a forthcoming stock market crash. Hindenburg Omen appeared a few times in June 2008, and is valid for 4 months. 


Bond Market Bulls Forever Hopeful
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46150541/

Fixed-Income Bears See Trouble in Reflation Policy 
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45815212/

@IHSG (Wave c/4 & Bearish Butterfly) vs DJIA (Bullish Butterfly & Wave Final v/5): A Temporary Technical Rebound On An Oversold

IHSG: @Courtesy BNI Technical Analysis Daily 28-02
DJIA:
Metal Stocks:
ANTM: Wait To Buy on Breakout / BOW, Oversold

INCO: Wait To Buy on Breakout / BOW, Double Top & Oversold

KRAS: Wait To Buy on Breakout / BOW, Falling Wedge & Sell Signal

JPRS: Wait To Buy on Breakout / BOW, Rectangle & Sell Signal

TINS: Wait To Buy on Breakout / BOW, Penannt & Oversold

Laporan & Rumor Saham Indonesia 28-02 (Refresh)

2nd SESSION JCI on 28.02.12
(By: Gita Adiwoso - D'Origin)

IHSG @3903.55 (+42.54 pts) (+1.10 %)
(H: 3907.14 ; L: 3858.08)
Value: 4.332 T (NG 611 B )
Volume: 3.067 B (NG 277 M  )
Foreign Nett Sell: 369 B  
Incl. Crossing:
ASII @ 69.650 ~ 240 B (F vs F)
USD/IDR: 9130 (On Shore)
                    9125 (Off Shore)

JCI for tomorrow:
Support:      3858 ; 3838
Resistance: 3952 ; 3976

6 MARKET DRIVEN BY SECTOR
MANUFACTUR (+1.38%) (1.645 T )
FINANCE (+1.06%). (759.958 B )
MINING. (+0.80%) (650.552 B )
TRADE. (+1.17%). (470.144 B )
INFRASTRUC (+0.54%) (368.797 B )
PROPERTY. (+0.89%) (301.510 B )

7 NETT BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGNers
GGRM. @ 52371 (21.55 B )
PTBA. @ 20764 (17.29 B )
ENRG. @ 192. (15.01 B )
ASRI. @ 558. (14.39 B )
BBCA. @ 7439 (10.38 B )
ITMG. @ 43162(9.72 B )
INCO. @ 3533. (9.11 B )

7 NETT SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGNers
ASII. @ 69576 (176.91 B )
BBRI. @ 6691. (75.05 B )
ADRO @ 1886. (41.54 B )
AKRA @ 3592. (31.01 B )
UNTR. @ 27906 (21.37 B )
SMGR @ 10629 (20.72 B )
BBNI. @ 3568. (19.04 B )

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUE
ASII. @ 69800 (+1.60%)
BMRI. @ 6250. (+3.30%)
BBRI. @ 6650. (0.00%)
UNTR @ 28250 (+3.29%)
SMGR@ 10850 (+3.29%)
ITMG. @ 43200 (+3.10%)
ADRO@ 1900. (+0.52%)
BBNI. @ 3600. (+0.69%)

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUME
FREN. @ 103. (594.144 Lot)
ENRG. @ 192. (575.814 Lot)
DEWA @ 98. (549.611 Lot)
MDLN. @ 400(271.937 Lot)
LCGP. @ 126 (227.227 Lot)
TRAM @ 890(194.774 Lot)
ASRI. @ 560(147.937 Lot)
GDST @ 144 (128.118 Lot)

Bloomberg: Woori Bank Denies Report It Is Seeking to Acquire Bank Saudara

Bank Rakyat FY Net 15.08T Rupiah; Analysts Est. 13.53T Rupiah

Indonesia Revised 2012 Budget Deficit About 2.2% of GDP: Rajasa

Net Sell Rp396 M, IHSG Masih 'Hijau'
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1835277/net-sell-rp396-m-ihsg-masih-hijau

Investor Asing Agresif Beli, IHSG Rebound 42 Poin 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2012/02/28/160956/1853659/6/investor-asing-agresif-beli-ihsg-rebound-42-poin

ASII akan Bagikan Sisa Dividen Rp1.380 per Saham
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1835216/asii-akan-bagikan-sisa-dividen-rp1380-per-saham

HRUM Proyeksikan Produksi Batubara 9,8 Jt Ton
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1835189/hrum-proyeksikan-produksi-batubara-98-jt-ton

BNI Bagi-bagi Dividen Maksimal Rp 1,7 Triliun 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2012/02/28/163632/1853707/6/bni-bagi-bagi-dividen-maksimal-rp-17-triliun

Laba Bersih BTN Capai Rp1,1 Triliun
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1835149/laba-bersih-btn-capai-rp11-triliun

BBCA Raih Laba Bersih Rp10,21 T di 2011
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1835140/bbca-raih-laba-bersih-rp1021-t-di-2011

2012, Mandiri Sekuritas Bidik 6 IPO & 11 Obligasi
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1835249/2012-mandiri-sekuritas-bidik-6-ipo-11-obligasi

ADRO pikir ulang berikan pinjaman ke Bhakti Energi
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/adro-pikir-ulang-berikan-pinjaman-ke-bhakti-energi

Januari, AALI Jual CPO Capai 96.662 Ton
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1835235/januari-aali-jual-cpo-capai-96662-ton

Berlian Laju Tanker Gagal Bayar Bunga Enam Obligasi 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2012/02/28/110001/1853277/6/berlian-laju-tanker-gagal-bayar-bunga-enam-obligasi

Bursa Eropa menghijau akibat voting Jerman
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/bursa-eropa-menghijau-akibat-voting-jerman

Pefindo turunkan rating BTEL
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/pefindo-turunkan-rating-btel

Astra Gains, Biggest Boost to Index, as Profit Beats Estimates

*DJ Indonesia Official: China's SDIC To Invest IDR1.6 Tln Initially For Cement Plan This Year 

*S&P REPORT: INDONESIA'S INFRASTRUCTURE A GROWTH LIMITATION
*S&P: INDONESIA CAN SEE STRONGER GROWTH FROM INFRASTRUCTURE INVT

BLOOMBERG: *BANK NEGARA INDONESIA EXPECTS 18%-20% LOAN GROWTH FOR 2012

Indonesia Expects to Complete Land Acquisition Rules in March

*DJ Indonesia Minister: To Propose Subsidy Of IDR2,000/Liter For Gasoline, Diesel
*DJ Indonesia Minister: To Propose IDR1,500/Liter Rise For Gasoline, Diesel Price

1st SESSION JCI on 28.02.12
(By: Gita Adiwoso - D'Origin)

IHSG @ 3865.11(+4.10 pts) (+0.10 %)
(H: 3888.30 ; L: 3858.08)
Value: 1.774 T (NG 271 B )
Volume: 1.149 B (NG 80 M  )
Foreign Nett Sell: 115 B
USD/IDR: 9155  (On Shore)
                    9146. (Off Shore)

JCI for today:
Support:      3830 ; 3808
Resistance:  3902 ; 3953

6 MARKET DRIVEN BY SECTOR
MANUFACTUR (+0.53%) (748.129 B )
FINANCE (-0.28%) (253.041 B )
MINING. (-0.12%). (251.620 B )
TRADE. (-0.82%) (210.547 B )
INFRASTRUC (+0.69%) (163.514 B )
PROPERTY. (+0.22%) (113.216 B )

7 NETT BUY STOCKs BY FOREIGNers
GGRM @ 51842(10.17 B )
TLKM @ 6979. (7.41 B )
INDF. @ 4884 (6.98 B )
PTBA @ 20758(5.84 B )
ASRI. @ 551. (5.37 B )
INTP. @ 16526(5.02 B )
BBCA. @ 7386. (4.97 B )

7 NETT SELL STOCKs BY FOREIGNers
BMRI. @ 6051. (32.17 B )
SMGR @ 10520(20.60 B )
ADRO @ 1881. (16.11 B )
AKRA @ 3599. (13.26 B )
ASII. @ 69487(11.44 B )
BBNI. @ 3544. (10.60 B )
UNTR @ 27607(8.29 B )

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VALUE
ASII. @ 69400(+1.01%)
BMRI. @ 6000. (-0.82%)
TRAM @ 890. (+1.13%)
BBRI. @ 6650. (0.00%)
UNTR. @ 27450(+0.36%)
SMGR @ 10400 (-1.42%)
AKRA @ 3575. (-3.37%)
ADRO @ 1870. (-1.05%)

8 MOST ACTIVE STOCKs BY VOLUME
DEWA. @ 98. (360.175 Lot)
TRAM @ 890 (172.646 Lot)
ENRG. @ 191. (167.136 Lot)
LCGP. @ 130. (87.898 Lot)
FREN. @ 102. (74.552 Lot)
LPKR. @ 690 (61.247 Lot)
ASRI. @ 550 (57.093 Lot)
BKSL. @ 245 (53.839 Lot)


Indonesia Stock Movers: Astra International, Elnusa, Medco
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-28/indonesia-stock-movers-astra-international-elnusa-medco.html


Bank Negara Indonesia 2011 Net Profit IDR5.81 Tln Vs IDR4.10 Tln
BN 02/28 03:15 *BANK NEGARA FY NET 5.81T RUPIAH; ANALYSTS EST. 5.47T RUPIAH


Bloomberg: Astra International Raised to Overweight at HSBC

Bloomberg; Jasa Marga Plans to Enter Property Business After March: Post

Berau to Increase Capex to $691 Million Until 2014, Daily Says

Rubber Futures Decline as Much as 1.4% in Tokyo

Asian Currencies Rise on Lower Oil Prices, ECB’s LTRO Tomorrow

Bloomberg: Palm Oil Gains as Much as 0.4% to 3,297 Ringgit a Metric Ton

Berau Coal, Jasa Marga, Pembangunan: Indonesia Equity Preview
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-02-28/berau-coal-jasa-marga-pembangunan-indonesia-equity-preview.html


IHSG Dibuka Menguat 0,6% ke 3.861,33
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1835127/ihsg-dibuka-menguat-06-ke-386133

Laba Bersih BBRI Capai Rp14,14 T di 2011
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1835120/laba-bersih-bbri-capai-rp1414-t-di-2011

Harga Saham Tinggi, Astra Stock Split 1:10 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2012/02/28/101530/1853212/6/harga-saham-tinggi-astra-stock-split-110

Inilah Menu Saham Pilihan Selasa (28/2)
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1835010/inilah-menu-saham-pilihan-selasa-282

BLTA Lakukan Restrukturisasi Sejumlah Utang
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1835003/blta-lakukan-restrukturisasi-sejumlah-utang

Saham MDLN Siap Menuju Rp700
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1835098/saham-mdln-siap-menuju-rp700

IHSG Akan Bearish Secara Zigzag
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1835000/ihsg-akan-bearish-secara-zigzag

Laba Bersih BNI Capai Rp5,6 T
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1835105/laba-bersih-bni-capai-rp56-t

Bursa Asia Dibuka Mixed
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1835117/bursa-asia-dibuka-mixed

Investor Pegang Cash, Trader Bagaimana?
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1835009/investor-pegang-cash-trader-bagaimana

IHSG masih Berpotensi Melemah
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1835109/ihsg-masih-berpotensi-melemah

Inilah Masalah Seputar Penerapan RDN
http://pasarmodal.inilah.com/read/detail/1834997/inilah-masalah-seputar-penerapan-rdn

Golkar Usul BBM Premium Naik Jadi Rp 6.500/liter 
http://finance.detik.com/read/2012/02/28/085728/1853119/1034/golkar-usul-bbm-premium-naik-jadi-rp-6500-liter

Selain IPO, Big Daddy gelar konser Lady Gaga
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/selain-ipo-big-daddy-gelar-konser-lady-gaga/2012/02/28

Targetkan kenaikan capex, saham BRAU melaju
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/targetkan-kenaikan-capex-saham-brau-melaju/2012/02/28

Secara teknikal sudah tinggi, harga minyak melorot
http://investasi.kontan.co.id/news/secara-teknikal-sudah-tinggi-harga-minyak-melorot/2012/02/28

HEADLINE NEWS
• laba bersih ASII 2011 naik 23,79% jadi Rp 17,78 triliun
• ASII ajukan dividen final 2011 Rp 1380 per saham
• ASII rencana lakukan stock split rasio 1:10
• SMGR akan bangun 30 packing plant hingga 2015
• SMGR akan lakukan efisiensi biaya operasional dan biaya produksi
• BBNI laba bersih unaudited 2011 naik 28% jadi Rp 5,7 triliun
• Laba bersih BBCA 2011 unaudited tumbuh 18% jadi Rp 10,2 triliun
• BDMN alokasikan Rp1,25 triliun untuk lunasi obligasi
• BRAU naikkan capex menjadi USD 691 juta
• Laba bersih BRAU belum diaudit sekitar USD 180 juta
• ELTY rambah pasar properti di Yogyakarta.
• UNVR pertahankan harga jual di 1Q2012
• AMFG akan naikan kapasitas produksi kaca otomotif di 2012
• PJAA rencana melunasi obligasi yang jatuh tempo Juni 2012
• ERAA naikan target kontribusi penjualan smartphone jadi 90%
• TELE tambah modal kepada PT Telesindo Shop
• TELE incar distributor Apple
• BLTA masih lakukan pembicaraan restrukturisasi utang
• Chevron gandeng PTIS garap proyek USD 989 ribu
• Produksi ATPK meningkat 50%
• INAF rencana privatisasi PT Indofarma Global Medika

Commodities;
∙ Crude Oil-(barel)US$108.56 (-1.21)
∙ Gold-(troy oz)-US$1767.68 (-4.78)∙ Nickel
-(ton)-US$20155.00 (-20.00)
∙ Tin-(ton)-US$23705.00 (-145.00)
∙ Coal (Newc)/ton US$115.60 (-2.00)
∙ CPO Mal-(ton) MYR3180.50 (-0.50)
* weekly

Indeks Global;
∙ DOW: 12981.51 (-0.01%)
∙ NASDAQ: 2966.16 (0.08%)
∙ HANG SENG: 21217.86 (-0.88%)
∙ NIKKEI 225* : 9567.12 (-0.14%)
*running

Foreign Exchange
∙ USD/IDR*9,168.75 (120.75)
*running

Corporate Action;
∙ BIPI-RUPST-29/02
∙ SIMM-RUPSLB-29/02
Source : Bloomberg dan dari berbagai sumber

SELASA, 28/02/2012
Valbury Asia Securities

VIEW MARKET
Prediksi hari ini ; IHSG masih rawan koreksi

Sentimen pasar;
∙ S&P turunkan peringkat kredit jangka panjang Yunani menjadi selective
default (negatif)
∙ Parlemen Jerman menyetujui bailout Yunani (positif)
∙ forum Uni Eropa akan mengadakan pertemuan pada Kamis dan Jumat di
Brussel (neutral)
∙ IMF peringatkan ancaman perlambatan ekonomi dunia (negatif)

Range; 3809-3891

Perspekti teknikal: bearish pattern

TRADING IDEAS :
These recommendations based on technical and only intended for one day trading

ASII: Trading Buy∙
Close 68700, TP 70800
∙ Boleh buy di level 68300-68800
∙ Resistance di 70917 & support di 67617
∙ Waspadai jika pivot poin di 68183
∙ Batasi resiko di 68100

UNVR: Trading Buy
∙ Close 18600, TP 20000
∙ Boleh buy di level 18400-18700
∙ Resistance di 20067 & support di 17967
∙ Waspadai jika tembus pivot poin di 18383
∙ Batasi resiko di 18300

JSMR: Trading Buy
∙ Close 4650, TP 4800
∙ Boleh buy di level 4575-4675
∙ Resistance di 4825 & support di 4575
∙ Waspadai jika tembus support di 4575
∙ Batasi resiko di 4525

AALI: Trading Buy
∙ Close 21300, TP 22000
∙ Boleh buy di level 21000-21400
∙ Resistance di 22150 & support di 20950
∙ Waspadai jika tembus pivot poin di 20950
∙ Batasi resiko di 20850

UNTR: Trading Buy
∙ Close 27350, TP 27950
∙ Boleh buy di level 27150-27400
∙ Resistance di 28667 & support di 26767
∙ Waspadai jika tembus support di 27133
∙ Batasi resiko di 27000

SMCB: Trading Buy
∙ Close 2275, TP 2350
∙ Boleh buy di level 2250-2275
∙ Resistance di 2350 & support di 2250
∙ Waspadai jika tembus support di 2250

28/02/2012

Henan Putihrai Market Update

DJI 12981: -0.0%
Kospi 1999: +0.4%
NKY 9551: -0.9%
ASX 4267: +0.0%
Indo ETF 28.2: -1.5%

TLKM $30.3: -0.9%
ISAT $29.2: -1.2%

USD/IDR Rp9143

CPO MYR3235: +0.1%
OIL $107.9: -0.6%
NIKEL $20071: -0.1%
TIN $23670: -0.6%
GOLD $1768.3: +0.0%

· ASII Membukukan Kenaikan Laba 24%
· BDMN Akan Melunasi Obligasi
· Ekspor Benih Sawit Akan Meningkat
· Astra Honda Motor Akan Membeli Lahan SSIA
· BRAU Meningkatkan Belanja Modal

Henan Putihrai  Key Calls :
ITMG ; buy di 41450-41500 ; stop loss di 41300 ; target di 43150-43200
INDY ; buy di 2550-2575 ; stop loss di 2475 ; target di 2675-2700

BN 02/28 01:51 *UBS ECONOMIST LARRY HATHEWAY COMMENTS ON OIL PRICE IN REPORT
BN 02/28 01:50 *OIL NEARING LEVELS `WHERE WORRIES HAVE ARISEN' IN PAST: UBS
BN 02/28 01:50 *OIL PRICES TO BECOME NEXT `RISK ITEM' FOR INVESTORS, UBS SAY

Oil Prices to Become Next `Risk Item' for Investors, UBS Says
2012-02-28 01:55:13.316 GMT Darren Boey
Feb. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Oil prices will becoming the next "risk item" for market participants as European concerns ease, according to Larry Hatheway, London-based chief economist at UBS AG. "Oil prices are already approaching levels where worries have arisen in the past," Hatheway wrote in a report dated today. "For oil consuming countries, rising prices will begin
to crimp purchasing power."

For Related News and Information:
Top Stories:{TOP}

Astra International  [ PDF]
Another record year
ASII IJ / ASII.JK  |  OUTPERFORM - Maintained  |  Share Price Rp68700 - Tgt.
Rp79000
Autos  |  - by Erwan TEGUH / Cindy EFFENDI
Driven by all three key business lines, core profit broke 2010's record to hit
an all-time high of Rp17.5tr. 2012 is expected to be another record year despite
dampened sentiment. Outperform maintained. FY11 core profit was up 21% yoy
formed 100% and 101% of ours and consensus, while sales grew 26% yoy, 3-4%
higher than expectations. Nevertheless, we trim earnings to reflect downgrades
in AAL; lower car ASP. Our higher target price, pegged to +1std P/E, with
possible upside to +1.5std on an auto up-cycle.

Cimb call buy" SSIA". SSIA- Investor Daily reported
that Astra Honda Motor has interest to buy 40-80ha of land in Suryacipta City of
Industry, an industrial estate which is owned by SSIA's subsidiary. SSIA's
management admitted the company is participating in a bidding process and no
deal has been reached- should the deal go through, it would be another positive
catalyst for the stock. BUY with TP Rp1,290

Monday, February 27, 2012

Sun Tze - Art of Investing and Trading!

1. Know the enemy, know yourself – win hundred battles without fear or danger.

2. Best to Win without Battle

3. Victorious warriors win first then go to war

4. He who knows when he can fight and when he cannot, will be victorious

Seminar CTA 8 Medan. "Managing Risks To Turn Small Into A Bigger Equtiy Need: Good Knowledge + Trading Systems + Instinct (Like A Tiger) + Strategy Plan + Timing

Terdaftar: 3 Orang
Join Member CTAsaham & Get The Benefits
Foto Workshop / Seminar CTA 1 - 7 + 2 Training Exclusive

Testimony Alumni CTA 1 - 7

TRACK RECORD:
16/02: 4 Top Picks CTASaham Get UpLimit Auto Rejection in A Week...
15/02 MYOH Hold buy @ 1.920 Trailing stops below 2.425 (3x AR Batas Atas) cicil jual 3.750 - 4.300 (23-24 Feb)
(Hold 25 Stocks; 3 Exit: RIMO (+110%; TRIL +109%; KIAS +13%).
22/02: Entry 3 Stocks: Hold > +5% Gain 
Recorded 15/02 (2 saham dalam coretan berpeluang Auto Reject Batas Atas pada 23/02: 
Informasi Seminar CTA 8 Medan:

Kalender Ekonomi & Event


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