Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Jul 16 09 06:43 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's break of 61.57 minor resistance suggest that a short term low is in place at 58.32. Some more consolidation should be seen with risk of rising to 38.2% retracement of 73.38 to 58.32 at 64.07. But upside should be limited below double top neckline at 66.25 and bring fall resumption. Below 58.32 will indicate that whole decline from 73.38 has resumed and should target key resistance turned support at 54.66 next.

In the bigger picture, the break of medium term channel support last week indicates that rise from 33.2 has completed at 73.83 already, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. The three wave structure of the rise from 33.2 to 73.83 suggests that it's corrective in nature. In addition, Crude oil failed to sustain above both 55 weeks and 55 months EMA. Hence, such rise from 33.2 to 73.83 is treated as a correction in the larger fall from 147.24 only. Decline from 73.83 is now expected to extend further to a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 66.2 resistance is at least needed to indicate that fall from 73.83 has completed and revive the possibility that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.