Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's consolidation from 58.32 continues today and at this point, intraday bias is mildly on the upside and further rise could still be seen to 38.2% retracement of 73.38 to 58.32 at 64.07. But upside should be limited below double top neckline at 66.25 and bring fall resumption. Below 60.28 minor support will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 58.32 low will indicate that whole decline from 73.38 has resumed and should target key resistance turned support at 54.66 next.
In the bigger picture, the break of medium term channel support last week indicates that rise from 33.2 has completed at 73.83 already, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. The three wave structure of the rise from 33.2 to 73.83 suggests that it's corrective in nature. In addition, Crude oil failed to sustain above both 55 weeks and 55 months EMA. Hence, such rise from 33.2 to 73.83 is treated as a correction in the larger fall from 147.24 only. Decline from 73.83 is now expected to extend further to a new low below 33.2. On the upside, break of 66.2 resistance is at least needed to indicate that fall from 73.83 has completed and revive the possibility that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Otherwise, outlook will remain bearish.
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