Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Indonesia Rupiah May Rise to 10-Month High: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s rupiah, Asia’s best performer this year, is set to gain 0.9 percent this week to a more than 10-month high, according to Forecast Singapore Pte, citing a trading momentum indicator.The dollar-rupiah’s Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, or MACD, fell below its signal line yesterday, indicating the rupiah may extend its rally, Pak Lai Ng, a Singapore-based technical analyst at Forecast, said today. The currency surged 9.7 percent against the greenback this year.“It’s a bearish signal for the dollar,” Ng said in an interview. The rupiah may see “test” 9,850 because the “fall of the dollar has been quite sharp,” he said.

The rupiah rose 0.6 percent to 9,938 per dollar as of 2 p.m. in Jakarta, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency reached 9,850 on Aug. 4, the strongest level since Oct. 22.The dollar’s MACD versus the rupiah was 9.3 compared with 9.5 for the signal line yesterday, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. MACD charts can indicate whether a price shift is a change in trend or a short-term deviation by comparing moving averages based on nine-, 12- and 26-day periods.In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

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