Saturday, February 5, 2011

Kalender Ekonomi & Event Global (07 - 11 February 2011)

WIB: +12 jam
http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

Week Ahead: Markets Trade on Recovery, Watch Middle East

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41428925

Earnings Central
Monday's earnings reports include CNA Financial, FMC, Gartner, Humana, Lorillard, Sysco and Becton Dickinson. Toyota, UBS, Teva, Sara Lee, Beazer Homes, ArcelorMittal, and Entergy report Tuesday morning. Disney, Pitney Bowes and McAfee report after Tuesday's bell. Wednesday's reports include Coca-Cola, Nissan, Sanofi-Aventis, Ingersoll Rand, Northrop Grumman and Polo Ralph Lauren. MetLife, Cisco, Activision Blizzard, Allstate, Whole Foods, Akamai, Torchmark and Prudential Financial report Wednesday afternoon. Thursday's early reports include Pepsico, Philip Morris, Alcatel-Lucent, Molson Coors, Thomson Reuters, Sprint Nextel and International Flavors and Fragrances. Kraft, Blue Nile, Expedia, Taubman Centers and Cephalon report after the bell. Brookfield Properties, Coca-Cola Enterprises, Discovery Communications and Scana report Friday.

Trade Deficit in U.S. Probably Widened as Imports Increased to Meet Demand
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-06/trade-deficit-in-u-s-probably-widened-as-imports-increased-to-meet-demand.html

Bank Indonesia Begins Battle to Contain Accelerating Inflation
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-04/bank-indonesia-begins-battle-to-contain-accelerating-inflation.html

Insight into Oil Prices
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1780541719&play=1

CNBC.com Market Outlook
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1781214248&play=1

Jobs Outlook 2011
http://www.cnbc.com/id/40895626

Ready for 'Splash Crash,' the Ultimate Market Meltdown?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41408510/

New Zealand Dollar May Fall to Six-Week Low Versus Yen: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-03/new-zealand-dollar-may-fall-to-six-week-low-versus-yen-technical-analysis.html

S&P 500 to Rest This Month Before More Gains: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-01/s-p-500-to-rest-this-month-before-more-gains-technical-analysis.html

Baht to Slide 1.3% on Fibonacci Sequence: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-31/baht-to-slide-1-3-on-fibonacci-sequence-technical-analysis.html

Gold’s Biggest Gain in 12 Weeks Is ‘Capitulation’ End
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-31/gold-s-biggest-gain-in-12-weeks-signaling-end-of-capitulation-amid-riots.html

Natural Gas May Gain on Colder Weather, Survey Shows
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-04/natural-gas-futures-may-advance-on-colder-weather-survey-shows.html

S&P 500 Stocks Biggest Weekly Changes in Target Price
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-02-04/s-p-500-stocks-biggest-weekly-changes-in-target-price.html

How "Unrest in Egypt" Made the Financial Media Look Ridiculous

How "Unrest in Egypt" Made the Financial Media Look Ridiculous

The 80 / 20 Trade: "Pounce Like a Cat"
Patience Can Be Rewarding
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/02/The-80-/-20-Trade--Pounce-Like-a-Cat-.aspx

Municipal Bond Investors are "Blind-sided by Bad News"
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/03/Municipal-Bond-Investors-are--Blind-sided-by-Bad-News-.aspx

No Surprise: Two Snowmageddons Did NOT Bring An End To Spending
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/03/No-Surprise-Two-Snowmageddons-Did-NOT-Bring-An-End-To-Spending.aspx

On the Docket: The Case Against Diversification
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/03/On-the-Docket-The-Case-against-Diversification.aspx

A Riveting Book Contains 30 Years Of Bob Prechter's Gold & Silver Analysis
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/01/A-New-Book-Contains-30-Years-Of-Bob-Prechter-s-Gold--Silver-Analysis-.aspx

China, Japan: Marriage Trends and Economy -- Any Connection?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/02/Marriage-Trends-and-Japan-Economy-China-Economy-Any-Connection.aspx

Happy GRAIN-hog Day: Will Wheat Prices See Their Shadow?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/02/02/Happy-GRAIN-hog-Day-Will-Wheat-Prices-See-Their-Shadow.aspx

The U.S. Dollar: A Darling or a Dud?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/01/31/The-U.S.-Dollar-A-Darling-or-a-Dud.aspx

If It's "A Buyer's Market," Why Is No One Buying?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/01/27/If-It-s--A-Buyer-s-Market--Why-Is-No-One-Buying.aspx

Friday, February 4, 2011

It's Time To Learn A New Dimension of Technical Analysis

Sample of 3D charts
Sector Maps
  
Clock Chart

3D Chart Display Types


Sample of FU-LU-SHOU:
DJIA: Chernoff faces
 ValuEngine's model variable
 Sources: Marketanalyst, Fulushou

The Fed Effect, Full Spectrum Dominance of Stock and Financial Markets

Dual mandates of Maximum Employment and Price Stability are noble headline goals of the Federal Reserve. Unfortunately, over a long period of time, the perceptibly infinite concentrations of power in concert with the short comings of human nature has inflated the Federal Reserve System into an all-powerful godlike entity to both fear, and worship. We suspect such potent combination is in large part responsible for the 60-year track record in the ruinous mismanagement of the federal funds rate. A measure that clearly would have been best reserved for the free-market to manage.

Fed Fund Rate

Fed Effect
US Dollar

GOLD
US Long Bond
No matter what unfolds, rest assured that civilization shall continue to thrive.
Remain prudent, prepare for the worst, expect the best, and recognize that you are indeed the master of your own destiny.

Until next time,

Trade Better/Invest Smarter
By Joseph Russo
Chief Publisher and Technical Analyst
Elliott Wave Technology
Email Author

Facebook, Twitter, and the Arab Revolutions

The dictator of Tunisia was overthrown in less than one month after being in power for 23 years. There is no question about how opponents of his regime were able to topple it. Two words describe it: Facebook, Twitter. These two social networking sites enabled protesters to take to the streets, organize the opposition, recruit new protesters, and overcome the police force and the military.

There is no question that if the government had chosen to use machine guns to cut down the protesters, it probably would have succeeded in suppressing the revolt. If it had combined machine guns with switching off the Internet, it would have been able to cut the protest down, both literally and digitally. But to do that, the regime would have had to act extremely fast, and it would have risked coming under international condemnation. It would also have created a permanent opposition, ready to revolt again.

The opposition forces are now connected, yet not organized. This has never happened before in recorded history. The masses can communicate with like-minded people for the price of a computer and an Internet connection.

In the good old days of the Soviet Union in the 1960s, the leaders would have applied that degree of force without a moment's hesitation. But this is not the era of the Soviet Union. We are living in a digital age, and almost nothing can be concealed from the public for very long. If a tyrant is weak, this will become common knowledge. There are few Goliaths and a lot of Davids online.

It is the power of the communications networks, when coupled with a willingness on the part of protesters to gather in the streets, that spells a period of crisis for every autocratic regime on earth. The autocrats have seen in January 2011 that it is difficult to put a lid on any unorganized protests. The organizing did not come from some little group that can be infiltrated or arrested. This was as close to a spontaneous protest as anything we have seen in modern times.

The ability of the social networks to organize a protest almost overnight, because people of similar beliefs and commitments are in close communication with others, has completely changed the nature of political resistance and revolution. This system of revolution toppled a middle eastern dictatorship in less than a month. It threatens to topple two more before the end of February: Yemen and Egypt. We have entered into a new period political resistance.

Gary North [send him mail ] is the author of Mises on Money . Visit http://www.garynorth.com . He is also the author of a free 20-volume series, An Economic Commentary on the Bible .

Commodity: Egypt Protests Could Lead to $150 Crude Oil

Kent Moors writes: Egypt is hardly the most influential player in the global energy market. Crude oil production has been in decline there for nearly two decades. Since hitting its peak level of 941,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 1993, producion has dropped steadily – falling to 873,000 bpd in 1997, 696,000 bpd in 2005, and finally to about 685,000 bpd currently.

Of course, while Egypt may not produce very much of the world's oil and gas, it does control about 5% of the world's oil and gas delivery. For that reason, the Egypt protests have had a very pronounced effect on the global energy market. The price of oil futures traded on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) remain above $90 a barrel, while London Brent Crude has traded above $100 a barrel for two days.

Aftershock No. 1: Panic Over Instability
First, while Egypt itself does not directly provide a great deal of oil to the international market, any instability in this region causes oil traders to panic. (The hefty rises in oil prices on Friday attest to this fact.) Prices are now stabilizing – after a quick round of profit-taking – and will soon begin experiencing upward pressure again (primarily for the reasons I will summarize below). Keep your eyes on the Brent crude price in London, where the importance of what is happening on the streets of Cairo is more immediate. The price of Brent crude has topped the magic benchmark of $100 a barrel for two days running.

There are no indications that the unrest is likely to translate into a government takeover by radical groups. We are, of course, still quite early in the process, but Egypt remains a secular Islamic state, at least for the moment. True, this is the birthplace of the Muslim Brotherhood some 60 years ago, the forerunner of radical Islam. However, these days, it is poorly organized, without effective leadership, and significantly weakened by government pressure over the years. In any event, this is currently a popular uprising and bears little relationship to wider political issues – unless, of course, we assess its result to the broader region. The events unfolding, first in Tunisia and then in Egypt, have brought attention to the unstable hold governments throughout the region have on their nations.

Here is where the true problems may result.
Egypt, Turkey, and Jordan are the leading secular Islamic states in the Middle East. But they have only moderate amounts of oil and gas. More disconcerting is the possibility of reactionary elements gaining control in places that have a more immediate impact on the flow of energy.

Aftershock No. 2: Western Producers and Drillers Could Suffer
Secondly, Egypt has been increasing its development offshore, especially of natural gas in the Nile Delta, the Gulf of Suez, and the deeper waters of the Mediterranean Sea.

Here, there are assets of major Western companies at stake – BP PLC (NYSE ADR: BP), Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM), Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX), Royal Dutch Shell PLC (NYSE ADR: RDS.A), Eni SpA (NYSE ADR: E), British Gas Group PLC (OTC ADR: BRGYY), Edison SpA Milano (OTC ADR: EDIHF), and dozens of mid-sized companies. In addition, there are substantial assets of leading drillers, including Transocean Ltd. (NYSE:RIG), Diamond Offshore Drilling Inc. (NYSE:DO), and Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE:BHI). What to watch here is the response to political pressures on the two dominant Egyptian state companies – the Egyptian General Petroleum Corp. (EGPC) and the Egyptian General Gas Holding (EGAS). These two control the dominant state position in all hydrocarbon projects in the country.

Aftershock No. 3: Eurozone Electricity Prices May Fluctuate
Developments there – should they lead to any interruption in deliveries – will have a more pronounced effect on the European gas market. The discovery of large gas deposits over the past several years has catapulted Egypt into the fast track lane for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports to the European Union. Any problem on this front would change dynamics in LNG imports and provide instability in electricity prices on the continent.

Aftershock No. 4: Delivery Interruptions Bring in Serious Volatility
Finally – and, in my judgment, most significantly – while Egypt does not provide a great amount of the global oil and gas, it does control about 5% of its delivery. Some 1.8 million barrels of oil move through the Suez Canal each day; another 1.1 million or so barrels pass along the Sumed pipeline from the Gulf of Suez to Alexandria and further export. Any interruptions here would move the oil market into considerable volatility, requiring a rebalancing of contracts and a noticeable escalation in prices.

Here's the rule of thumb to remember: Each 1% decline in global supply availability without an equivalent decline in demand pushes average crude oil prices up $10 a barrel. At minimum, therefore, that would translate into an almost overnight price level of $140 a barrel on the NYMEX and a Brent crude price of nearly $150 a barrel. Currently, the only problems in the Suez Canal are a result of communications being subject to government cuts countrywide. There is no indication that the oil flow is impeded at this point.
But this is a fluid situation, and the likelihood of supply cuts elsewhere in the region as the popular uprisings increase, are a genuine concern.

[Editor's Note: Dr. Kent Moors, a regular contributor to Money Morning, is the editor of The Oil & Energy Investor, a newsletter for individual investors, as well as the Energy Advantage advisory service In a career that spans 31 years, Dr. Moors has been consulting the energy industry's biggest players, including six of the world's Top 10 oil companies and the leading natural gas producers throughout Russia, the Caspian Basin, the Persian Gulf and North Africa. His experiences - as well as his unrivaled industry access - are without peer. For access to Dr. Moors' top stock recommendations for the publicly traded companies that are poised to dominate these new clean-energy markets, get his Energy Advantage advisory service by clicking here.]

Source : http://moneymorning.com/2011/02/02/egypt-protests-could-lead-to-150-oil/

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Kalender Ekonomi & Event


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