Thursday, May 27, 2010

Rekomendasi & Saham Pilihan 31-05

ADRO: Strong support di 1.810-1.840 (buy area), sell on rally 1.950-2.000
 ANTM: Sell on rally 1.975-2050, weak support di 1.800-1.850.
ASII Sell on rally 42.300-43.000, buy area 39.200-40.200
ELTY: Weak resist diatas 165, moderate support di 125-135 (buy area)
PGAS Strong suppor di 3.425-3.500 (buy area), sell area 3.850-3.925
TLKM: resist 7.800-7.900 (sell area), weak support di bawah 7.500
UNTR: Sell area 18.000-18.500, support berada di 16.200-16.700

Rekomendasi & Strategy IHSG (31-05) / DJIA (28-05) / EUR-USD & GBP-USD

Hold Sell 2.725 (27/05) target 2.630 stop 30p & Sell 2.785 target 2.660 stop 2.815.  Buy 2.635 target 2.725 stop below 2.618. Sell breakout 2.618 target 2.510 stop 30p. 
Closed Buy back 2.660 target 2.780 (-20p) .
Track Record IHSG: 35 Recommendations (26 profits: 2 break even: 5 loss) = (+20p+45p+73p+53+60p+45p+63p+0p+27p+50p-20p+13p+40p+45p+40p+29p-30p-154p-75p+80p+26p+0p+28p+80p+62p+53p+20p+0p+70p+99p+135p-20p). Total : Net +1086 points = Average 31.0 point.

DJIA:  
Hold Sell 10.250 target 10.000, stop loss above 10.290. 

Closed buy breakout  10,180 target 10.250 = - 30p. Closed Buy breakout 9.965 &10.060 target 10.170 = Profit +205p + 110p = +305p. buy breakout  10,180 target 10.250 stop 30p.
Buy 9.950 (low last nite 9.552) & buy breakout 9.965 & 10.060 target 10.170 . 
Track record 15 Trades: (-65p-30p+370p + 280p+190p-30p+230p-30p+120p+200p-40p+280p+198p+205p+110p-30p). Total Net +2053 points = Average +136.66 points/trade.
 
EUR-USD
Sell 2.450 target 1.2260 stop diatas 1.2520. Buy breakout 1.2525 target 1.2650/1.2670. Buy breakout 1.2680 target 1.2870/1.2955. Buy 1.2205 target 1.2450 stop dibawah 1.2140. Sell breakout 1.2130 target 1.2000 stop 1.2170. 
GBP-USD
Buy 1.4340 target 1.4640 stop 40pips. Sell 1.4640 target 1.4450 stop 40pips, Buy breakout 1.4700 target 1.5080 stop 50p. Sell breakout 1.4220 target 1.4050 stop 50p. Speculative Buy 1.4250 target 1.4450 stop 30p. 

Update Daily Investment News

Antam Bagi Dividen Rp25,83 per Lembar
Hasil Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham Tahunan (RUPST) memutuskan pembagian dividen 2009 sebesar 40% dari laba bersih 2009 atau Rp25,830 per lembar saham.

Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) ^JKSE sesi I Kamis (27/5) ditutup turun tipis 2,53 poin (0,09%) ke level 2.694,25 karena dorongan saham unggulan yang rebound.Kelemahan IHSG ini dipicu turunnya 82 saham, sedang yang masih naik 109 saham, sedang 44 saham stagnan.

Bapepam-LK tengah memproses dua emiten yang siap mencatatkan saham perdana atau IPO di lantai BEI pada Juni 2010.

Ramayana Bagi Dividen Rp176,6 M
Hasil Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham Tahunan (RUPST) PT Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk (RALS) akan membagikan dividen untuk tahun buku 2009 sebesar Rp176,6 miliar.

BUMN: 'Merger' INAF-KAEF Rampung Tahun Ini
Pemerintah berharap rencana merger PT Kimia Farma Tbk (KAEF) dan PT Indofarma Tbk (INAF) dapat rampung tahun ini.

 PT Bakrie & Brothers (BNBR) akan melakukan reverse stock split. Hal ini bertujuan untuk menaikkan harga sahamnya.
Beredar kabar di pasar bahwa induk usaha Bakrie ini akan melakukan reverse stock atau penggabungan saham, dimana perusahaan menggabungkan nilai nominal sahamnya dengan rasio tertentu.


Laba Bersih Indofarma 2009 Turun 57,8%
PT Indofarma Tbk selama 2009 mengalami penurunan laba bersih sebesar 57,8% atau dari Rp5,03 miliar tahun 2008 menjadi Rp2,12 miliar laba bersih 2010.

  Dana Asing di SBI Terkuras Hingga Rp 37 Triliun
Fenomena ini bersifat sementara dan tidak ada kaitannya dengan kondisi ekonomi nasional.

Hari Ini, Suspensi Toba Pulp Dibuka
Suspensi saham PT Toba Pulp Lestari Tbk (INRU) telah dibuka pada perdagangan Kamis (27/5).

BEI Buka Suspensi Saham CNTX & CNTB
Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) memutuskan membuka suspensi efek PT Century Textile industry Tbk (CNTX dan CNTB) di seluruh pasar, Kamis(27/5)pada sesi pertama perdagangan.

Kementerian Perdagangan menetapkan bea keluar Crude Palm Oil (CPO) atau minyak sawit mentah mulai 1 Juni 2010 sebesar 4,5%. Bea keluar berarti sama dengan bulan sebelumnya.

Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dan nilai tukar rupiah membuka perdagangan hari ini dengan melemah mengikuti pelemahan bursa regional lainnya. IHSG langsung anjlok hingga 2% lebih. Pada perdagangan Kamis (27/5/2010), IHSG dibuka melemah 26,725 poin atau 0,99% ke level 2670,55. Pelemahan IHSG terus berlanjut, hingga pukul 09.35 waktu JATS, IHSG merosot di level 2620,353, anjlok 76,427 poin atau 2,7%.

    * ISAT: Indosat Perpanjang Penawaran Obligasi Dolar
    * BBNI: BNI jadi official bank di Kongres Real Estat
    * BMRI: Salurkan Kredit Perkebunan Rp31,8 Triliun
    * ENRG: Sisa Dana Rights Issue Rp 1,5 T
    * MEDC: Lunasi Obligasi US$250 Juta
    * UNTR: Akusisi Tambang Rp460 Miliar
    * JSMR: Dua Tol Akan Rampung
    * IPO: Berau Energy Bidik Dana US$1 Miliar
    * BLTA: Harga Rights Issue BLTA Diskon 47%
    * ASII: Jadwal Pembagian Dividen

Corporate Actions
    * Hari ini (27/5), cum dividen tunai Wijaya Karya Tbk (WIKA) Rp 10,02 per saham Ex dividen (31 Mei 2010)
    * Hari ini (27/5), cum dividen Adira Dinamika Multi Finance Tbk (ADMF) Rp 242,48 per saham Ex dividen (31 Mei 2010)
    * Hari ini (27/5), cum dividen Summarecon Agung Tbk (SMRA) Rp 8 per saham Ex dividen (31 Mei 2010)
    * Hari ini (27/5), cum dividen Fajar Surya Wisesa Tbk (FASW) Rp 23 per saham Ex dividen (31 Mei 2010)
    * Hari ini (27/5), cum dividen Ace Hardware Indonesia Tbk (ACES) Rp 9,2 per saham Ex dividen (31 Mei 2010).

Saham PT Sentul City Tbk (BKSL) bakal dikerek bandar menuju level Rp210 dalam waktu dekat. Pasalnya, selain ada kabar Grup Bakrie tertarik pada saham perseroan.

PT Bakrieland Development Tbk (ELTY) bekerjasama dengan Perum Perumnas dalam pengadaan rumah sehat sederhana dengan tujuan mengurangi back log (kekurangan pasokan) perumahan layak huni menengah bawah.

Bentuk JV Rp40 M, BMTR Gandeng Rakuten
PT Global Mediacom Tbk (BMTR) menggandeng perusahaan asal Jepang, Rakuten Inc., untuk membentuk perusahaan patungan dengan investasi senilai Rp40 miliar.

Pasar finansial kembali ceria menyusul pernyataan OECD, bahwa krisis utang Eropa tidak akan membawa kawasan itu pada resesi kedua. Hal ini diperkuat kesiapan bantuan Jerman.

PT United Tractor Tbk akan menyelesaikan dua akuisisi kuasa penambangan di Kalimantan Tengah senilai US$50 juta.



Sumber: detikfinance.com (market flash), inilah.com, bloomberg, cnbc, yahoo.com, kontan

Indonesia Stocks Rise Most in 18 Months on Commodity Outlook
(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s stocks rallied the most in 18 months, led by auto retailers and commodity producers, as gains in oil and metal prices and dividend announcements eased concern the European debt crisis will erode earnings. http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=akhOvHwRqEUc

S&P 500 to Bottom in 5 to 10 Days, UBS Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, which has tumbled 12 percent from this year’s high, may fall as much as 6.9 percent further before bottoming in the next 5 to 10 trading days, according to technical analysts at UBS AG.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ayQYsx0U4xuc

10 Reasons Why Markets Will Rebound: Pro
The sovereign debt crisis in Europe may be a silver lining in the U.S., said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief market strategist at LPL Financial. He explained why he believes the markets will rebound. (Scroll down to read his 10 reasons.)
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37356334

Art Cashin: The S&P's 'Critical' Resistance Points
Stocks saw a turnaround on Wednesday as the Dow jumped almost 100 points in the first half-hour of trading, following a number of volatile sessions. Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS Financial Services, shared his market outlook.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37355609

Barton Biggs Says Stock Market Set to ‘Pop’ in Days (Update2)
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock markets are oversold and may rally strongly over the next few days, said investor Barton Biggs, who runs New York-based hedge fund Traxis Partners LP.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=anqk3Hmea.xM&pos=1

Mobius Buys BRIC Stocks in Bet Drop Is Bull Market ‘Correction’
(Bloomberg) -- Templeton Asset Management Ltd.’s Mark Mobius said he’s been buying stocks in Brazil, Russia, India and China in the past month and called the slump in emerging-economy shares a “correction” in a bull market.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSm89xNtRwjA

Dollar Index May Fall as Double Top Forms: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Dollar Index may fall to a three- week low as it forms a “double top” after failing to exceed the May 19 high, a technical chart from Citigroup Inc. shows.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=agh7PQDKE9E8

Oil ‘Very Weak,’ Poised for Drop to $58: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil futures are “very weak” and are poised for a drop to $58 a barrel, according to a technical analysis by Newedge Group.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aviHbON.aFBQ

Third Obama Year May Be the Charm for Stocks
WASHINGTON (TheStreet) -- Stock market returns are influenced by many factors. Interest rates, economic growth, currency exchange rates and expectations about the future play a part in returns, making projections difficult and risky.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Third-Obama-Year-May-Be-the-tsmf-3715307294.html?x=0&.v=2

Base Metals Seen Rising on China Demand
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Base metals will likely advance during the week, in line with our forecast , as metal selloffs over the past two weeks have created buying opportunities.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Base-Metals-Seen-Rising-on-tsmf-600234708.html?x=0&.v=1

Gold Use Fell in 1st Quarter, to Be ‘Strong’ in 2010, WGC Says
(Bloomberg) -- Gold demand, down 11 percent in the first quarter from the prior three months, will be “strong” this year on increased investment and higher jewelry usage, the World Gold Council said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aDnwPIJfoSj4

China Tightening to Be ‘Less Aggressive,’ UBS Wealth’s Pu Says
(Bloomberg) -- China’s policy makers may be “less aggressive” in introducing further tightening measures as Europe’s sovereign-debt problem spreads and risk to the economy grows, UBS AG’s wealth management unit said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a9iPpwRBM8k8

Aronstein Sees `Institutional Bid' for U.S. Equities: Video
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=as6NrVagju6A

Oil RSI Points to $66 Floor, Barclays Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil’s 20 percent collapse in the past month will likely halt at $66 a barrel as the commodity nears a support layer in New York after excessive selling, according to a technical analysis by Barclays Capital.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=afkbNsLefMqs

Dollar Primed for Collapse by End June: Charts
The dollar's recent strength has been explained by most market analysts as a result of the euro weakness rather than any fundamental support for the greenback. In fact, a closer look at the dollar's chart - particularly the dollar index - suggests the currency may be primed for a collapse.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37349789

Thursday Look Ahead: Markets Watch US Data — and Euro
The late day selloff in stocks Wednesday shows the euro is still the tail wagging the dog when it comes to markets this week.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37364241

Euro Slips...So Do US Stocks
As the euro took another leg down against the dollar and the yen about 3:20pm ET, we saw a volume spike in the E-mini futures and the S&P 500 ETF they have now turned negative on the day.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37363107

Fears Overdone, Double-Dip Unlikely: Strategist
Fears about the global recovery are overdone, and the economies will not fall back into a double-dip recession, Christian Blaabjerg, research analyst at Saxo Bank, said in a research note Wednesday.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37354138


Buy China Stocks as Tightening Is Overdone, Lou Says (Update1)
(Bloomberg) -- China’s stocks are a buying opportunity as the government is unlikely to step up measures to slow the world’s third-biggest economy at a time the European crisis is deepening, according to Morgan Stanley.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aMhg0h1j_6Js

Daily Forex Technicals |   Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.2168 and 1.2136(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.2108, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.2084. Break of the latter would result in 1.2063. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.2034. Continuation will give 1.1998 and 1.1972.
Today's resistance: - 1.2337 and 1.2389(main). Break would give 1.2424, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.2468. Break of the latter would result in 1.2487. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.2506. Continuation will give 1.2527 and 1.2552.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 89.56 and 89.33(main). Break would bring 89.12, where correction is possible. Then 88.82, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 88.46. If a strong impulse, we would see 88.30. Continuation would give 88.09.
Today's resistance: - 90.62, 90.90 and 91.48(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 91.82, where also a correction may be. Then 92.26. If a strong impulse, we would see 92.44. Continuation will give 92.70.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9942.20, 9888.73, 9832.50 and 9804.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9768.62, where correction also can be. Then follows 9722.78. Be there a strong impulse, we shall see 9670.36. Continuation will bring 9630.00 and 9615.74.
Today's resistance: - 10046.30, 10102.50, 10126.40 and 10181.26(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 10213.44, where a correction may happen. Then follows 10254.37, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 10283.50. Continuation would bring 10306.14 and 10328.36.

Rekomendasi & Strategy IHSG 27-05

Indeks perlu menembus dan ditutup diatas 2.729 resist untuk melanjutkan mini rally dalam trend yang bearish, karena tingginya volatilty di saat kenaikan, DMI menunjukkan buying power yang mulai meningkat (selling power mereda), MACD masih bearish, meski stochastic yang oversold dan crossing up dan candle long opening marubozu seharusnya berpotensi meredam tekanan jual dan kondisi teknikal yang menunjukkan kemungkinan wave koreksi c/4 dalam C, jika tembus 2.627 memberikan signal wave koreksi 5/c berjalan.. Rapuhnya kondisi ekonomi di Eropa karena pembayaran hutang Yunani (ditambah memburuknya kondisi perbankan Spanyol, Portugal & UK are the next), diikuti penurunan rating kredit negara di Eropa (the next target is Irlandia & UK), krisis politik di Thailand dan Korea (Kim Jong Il memerintahkan militer untuk siap perang) dapat mendorong fund asing keluar dari emerging market - EPFR menunjukkan investor outlflow $ 12 miliar dari negara emerging di pekan lalu, terbesar dalam 2 tahun),diikuti kinerja indeks saham regional yang terkoreksi (DJIA masih berada dalam trend bearish, meski semalam data New Home Sales & Durable Goods tercatat diatas prediksi) dan peluang aksi profit taking melanda di pasar, meski isu pre-emptive saham baru BUMI & kasus menangnya KPC di Pengadilan terhadap dirjen Pajak) dan sejumlah isu positif dari pembagian dividen dan fundamental yang solid, dapat membatasi laju kenaikan IHSG hari ini.


Sell on Rally (buy & hold 26.05) : BBRI, BBCA, BMRI, BDMN, BUMI, ENRG, ELTY, BTEL, PGAS, INDF, MEDC, TLKM, KLBF, JSMR, LSIP, ADRO, UNTR, ASII, DOID, BHIT


Rekomendasi 19-05: All done today (20/05)
Closed all today (27-05) 
Hold BBNI: Buy 2.300-2.350 target 2.450-2.500, stop loss 1.950.
Closed Hold MEDC: 2.850-2.900 target 3.100 stop loss, 2.400, buy breakout 3.125 target 3.400.

Closed Hold INCO: Sell 4.200 & then Buy 3.925 target 4.500, stop loss 3.300. 
Closed Hold KLBF: Buy 1750 target 1.900, stop 1.650
Hold DILD: Buy on weakness 1.030/1060 target 1140 stop 950.

Elliot Wave: IHSG & DJIA (4 Hour Charts) 27-05

IHSG 4-Jam.
Sell on rally 2.725 target 2.660 stop 30p. Buy back 2.660 target 2.780 sstop 2.640. Sell 2.785 target 2.660 stop 2.815. 
Closed Hold buy 2.530/2.500 (2.515) target 2.650 = +135 points.
Track Record IHSG: 34 Recommendations (26 profits: 2 break even: 4 loss) = (+20p+45p+73p+53+60p+45p+63p+0p+27p+50p-20p+13p+40p+45p+40p+29p-30p-154p-75p+80p+26p+0p+28p+80p+62p+53p+20p+0p+70p+99p+135p). Total : Net +1106 points = Average 32.53 point.
DJIA 4-Hr
Wave c/4 in C or 5 completed???) Sell 10.230/10.250 target 9.950, stop loss above 10.290. Buy 9.950 target 10.250 stop below 9.920.
Track record 12 Trades: (-65p-30p+370p + 280p+190p-30p+230p-30p+120p+200p-40p+280p+198p). Total Net +1673 points = Average +139.41 points/trade.

Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Technical Analysis IHSG & 4 Saham Pilihan

IHSG on Market Profile: Heavy supply above 2.729
IHSG on Volume: weak rally in a bearish trend
BUMI: Heavy supply above 2.050
BUMI on Volume
ENRG Weak Rally in Bearish trend
BHIT: Weak Rally in Bearish trend
                                 TMPI:  Nice support to rebound

Update Daily Investment News

Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dan nilai tukar rupiah langsung membuka perdagangan pagi ini dengan penuh cerah ceria. IHSG bahkan kembali merambat mendekati level 2.600.
Pada perdagangan Rabu (26/5/2010), IHSG dibuka langsung menguat 23,909 poin (0,9%) ke level 2.538,028. IHSG terus menguat dan pada pukul 09.45 waktu JATS berada di posisi 2.582,032, naik 67,913 poin (2,7%). Sementara nilai tukar rupiah juga ikut menguat ke level 9.345 per dolar AS, dibandingkan penutupan sebelumnya di level 9.370 per dolar AS.

Mahkamah Agung (MA) menolak peninjauan kembali (PK) yang diajukan oleh Direktur Jenderal (Dirjen) Pajak dalam kasus sengketa pajak Rp 1,5 triliun dengan PT Kaltim Prima Coal (KPC).

PTBA 'Due Dilligence' 2 Tambang Batubara Kalimantan
PT Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk telah melakukan due dilligence mendapatkan dua lokasi tambang batubara (green field) di Kalimantan.

BLTA Tawarkan 5,981 Miliar Saham Baru
PT Berlian Laju Tanker Tbk (BLTA) akan menerbitkan 5,981,591,235 saham baru dengan menggunakan HMETD dengan harga Rp220 per saham.

Indopoly Tawarkan 2,300 M Saham ke Publik
PT Indopoly Swakarsa Industry Tbk akan menawarkan saham umum perdana sebanyak-banyak sekitar 2,300,178,500 saham biasa atau 35,17% kepada publik.

'Hedge Fund' Dorong Wall Street 'Mixed'
Hedge fund mengadakan rapat guna mendorong S&P 500 ke wilayah positif untuk membeli saham setelah mencapai posisi terendah dalam enam bulan.

PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) akan menerbitkan saham non preemptive sekitar 1,94 lembar. Saham baru ini akan diagendakan dalam RUPSLB pada 24 Juni 2010 mendatang.Hal ini berarti BUMI akan mengucurkan dana sekitar US$375 juta untuk pelepasan saham baru ini.   BUMI Mungkin Meraup Rp 4,5 Triliun. Analis memprediksi, harga saham baru BUMI akan berada pada level Rp 2.327 per saham

Presiden Direktur Adaro Boy Garibaldy Tohir mengatakan permintaan batubara di pasar Asia sangat besar. Namun, Adaro tidak bisa memenuhi semua permintaan tersebut. "Permintaan batubara pasar Asia sangat besar, peningkatannya sampai 25-40%, namun Adaro sendiri tidak bisa melayani semuanya karena sangat bergantung pada kapasitas produksi Adaro," kata Boy Garibaldy Tohir disela-sela penganugerahan perusahaan tambang di Rizt Charton, Jakarta, Selasa malam (25/5).
Saham PT Wijaya Karya Tbk (WIKA) dikabarkan menjadi target beli pemodal seiring dengan pembagian dividen dan rencana aksi korporasinya. Manajemen WIKA kabarnya bakal mengumumkan rencana aksi korporasi dalam wakti dekar. Selain itu, WIKA memenangi tender proyek konstruksi pabrik alumina Tayan yang dikelola oleh konsorsium PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM).

PT Sentul City Tbk (BKSL) membukukan laba bersih sekitar Rp4,059 miliar pada kuartal pertama 2010 dibandingkan periode sama sebelumnya rugi sekitar Rp14,118 miliar.

Saham ELTY Paling Diburu Asing
Saham Bakrieland Development (ELTY) menjadi saham yang paling banyak dibeli asing mencapai Rp39,03 juta dari total transaksi Rp31,5 miliar mencapai 262.433.500 saham.

BISI Targetkan Bebas Utang Akhir 2010
PT BISI International Tbk (BISI) menargetkan bebas utang pada akhir 2010. Perseroan mendapatkan fasilitas pinjaman sebesar Rp350 miliar dari BNI.

Total utang Indonesia saat ini mencapai Rp 1.600 triliun, sebagian besar dalam bentuk surat berharga. Untuk utang Indonesia yang akan jatuh tempo pada tahun 2010 ini mencapai Rp 115 triliun.

    * SMGR: Bakal Beli Pabrik Semen milik Malaysia
    * ADRO: Ekspor Tergerus Krisis Yunani
    * TLKM: Telkomsel targetkan raih 5 juta pelanggan data
    * BUMI: Lepas Saham Baru US$375 Juta
    * PTBA: Alokasikan Dana Rp1,5 Triliun
    * ANTM: Targetkan Produksi Emas 5 Ribu Kg
    * TBLA: Terbitkan 200 Juta Saham Baru
    * BBNI: Kredit Perkebunan Rp18 Triliun
    * BISI: Lunasi Utang Rp 100 Miliar, BISI Bidik Laba Rp 300 Miliar
    * AISA: Tiga Pilar Dapat Proyek Memasok Beras Ke Bulog

Corporate News
    * Hari ini (26/5), cum dividen tunai Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) Rp 466,65 per saham Ex dividen (27 Mei 2010)
    * Hari ini (26/5), cum dividen tunai Jakarta Setiabudi Internasional Tbk (JSPT) Rp 6 per saham Ex dividen (27 Mei 2010)
    * Hari ini (26/5), cum dividen tunai Trias Sentosa Tbk (TRST) Rp 15 per saham Ex dividen (27 Mei 2010)

  Incar Pabrik Semen, SMGR Siapkan Dana Rp 3 Triliun
Pabrik tersebut memiliki kapasitas produksi hingga 1,5 juta ton per tahun

  BISI Targetkan Laba Bersih Naik Tiga Kali Lipat
Presiden Direktur BISI Jemmy Eka Putra menargetkan, laba bersih BISI bisa melonjak menjadi Rp 250 miliar-Rp 300 miliar

Sumber: Inilah.com, detikfinance.com (market flash), kontan

U.S. Stocks Are ’Oversold’ in the Near Term, Marc Faber Says
Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks are “oversold” and likely to rebound to a level short of this year’s high, according to Marc Faber, publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=anZ28pSgWE3I

Korean Stocks a ‘Screaming Buy’ After Selloff, Seggerman Says
(Bloomberg) -- South Korean stocks are a “screaming buy” and set to rebound 25 percent from a selloff triggered by tension with the North and concern over Europe’s debt crisis, according to International Investment Advisers.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aM0LpxEVL_kQ

Copper, Oil Prices Advance on Demand Optimism; Won Stabilizes
(Bloomberg) -- Copper and oil rebounded, driving Asian commodity stocks higher, as Rio Tinto Group said it expects demand in China to rise. The won stabilized as South Korea’s government pledged to intervene in currency markets amid tensions with the North.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aomq7u82ODI4

Asian Currencies Will Retreat on Stocks ‘Double-Dip,’ NAB Says
(Bloomberg) -- Asian currencies will lose half their gains made since the easing of the 2008 global financial crisis as Europe’s debt woes cause a “double-dip” in equity markets, according to National Australia Bank Ltd.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=angYqYvKqRiA

Gimbel Says `Opportune Time' to Pick Up Stocks Bargains: Video
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aAprW3xJ1Pyo

Rio Says China Commodity Demand to Grow Over 15 Years (Update1)
(Bloomberg) -- Rio Tinto Group, the world’s third- biggest mining company, said it expects China’s commodity demand to increase over the next 15 years.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a7QxR4utHED4

U.S. Market Total Short Interest by Industries as of May 14
(Bloomberg) -- The following are the short interest positions and short interest vs float ratio aggregated by sector and industry group for companies listed on the NYSE, NYSE Alternext and Nasdaq Stock as of the May 14 settlement date. The total positions increased 0.63 percent from previous period. The ratios of short interest vs. float unchanged from previous period.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a809jx0XVnIA

Saxena Says Global Stocks in `Multiyear Bull Market': Video
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aWqiU6cAFK88

S&P 500’s ‘Undercut Low’ May Signal Bottom: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may be in a process of bottoming out after dipping below the intraday low of the May 6 crash, according to Miller Tabak & Co.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=azVpR8xDkzK0

The New Turmoil
By Gray Newman | New York Morgan Stanley
The turmoil in Euroland has morphed into a global sell-off that has taken its toll on markets in Latin America and around the globe. Can the impact on growth in Latin America be far behind? I think the answer is no: Latin America cannot be spared if we begin to see significant growth revisions downward around the globe. I would think by now that we had settled the question of the region's vulnerability to a global downturn.  The downturn in global activity in 2008-09 spared neither Latin America's economies nor its markets.

Stock-Market Decline May Soon Run Out of Steam: John Dorfman
(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. stock market reels. Europe cringes at the prospect of serial defaults by Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy. Gooey oil creeps out of the Gulf of Mexico onto land. A computer glitch triggers a near-crash on stock exchanges. Rules for financial firms in the U.S. are being overhauled. North Korea and South Korea rattle sabers.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4O5ihWWajtI

Investors Assess the ‘Nightmare’ Scenario
The S&P 500 Index [.SPX  1074.03    0.38  (+0.04%)   ] is in the midst of its first official 10 percent correction since this bull market began in March 2009. Selloffs like these tend to keep going after passing such a widely followed threshold as more and more investors begin to ask themselves, “What exactly is the stock market telling us that we don’t already know?”  That’s why the S&P during bull markets doesn’t just turn on a dime after dropping a clean 10 percent.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37336255

Will the Dow Plummet to 8,260?
Cramer this week wrote up a white paper of sorts, taking into account everything that might go wrong for the markets. His conclusion? The Dow could drop another 20%.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37336192

This Correction Is 'Normal'—Strategists Still Bullish
Fears of global economic contagion sent the markets falling for the second day in a row, pushing the Dow below 10,000. But Bill Smead, chief executive and chief investment officer of Smead Capital Management, and Craig Hodges, co-portfolio manager at The Hodges Fund, said they still remain bullish on the markets.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37334721

ETFs: More Trouble for Europe Markets?
As noted earlier, weakness in overseas indices has translated to steep declines in international ETFs (see previous post).
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37344022

VIX Set to Cool After Weeks of Palpitations?
Global stock markets are regularly seeing three-percent swings as investors grapple with worries about the euro zone debt situation and escalating tensions between North and South Korea.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37333121

End of correction nears, but 'summer bummer' looms
Commentary: Guru Dorsey says respite is near but more troubles ahead
(MarketWatch) -- Markets seem close to entering calmer waters, likely helped by the official signposts indicating U.S. stocks were in their first real correction since the massive rally that began in March 2009.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/end-of-correction-nears-but-respite-wont-last-2010-05-24

Rekomendasi & Strategy IHSG 26-05

Indeks masih perlu konfirmasi untuk membalikkan trend, karena tingginya volatilty di saat penurunan, DMI menunjukkan selling power yang kuat, MACD bearish, meski stochastic yang oversold dan candle long opening marubozu seharusnya berpotensi menahan laju penurunan dan berpeluang mengalami TECHNICAL SELLING yang ganas (koreksi wave 5/C). Kondisi di negara Eropa akan makin memburuk karena pembayaran hutang Yunani (ditambah memburuknya kondisi perbankan Spanyol, Portugal & UK are the next), diikuti penurunan rating kredit negara di Eropa (the next target is Irlandia & UK), krisis politik di Thailand dan Korea (Kim Jong Il memerintahkan militer untuk siap perang) dapat mendorong fund asing keluar dari emerging market (EPFR menunjukkan investor outlflow $ 12 miliar dari negara emerging di pekan lalu, terbesar dalam 2 tahun), meski isu pre-emptive saham baru BUMI (kasus menangnya KPC di Pengadilan terhadap dirjen Pajak) dan kinerja indeks regional mengalami Technical Rebound, dapat memicu aksi bargain hunting menjelang liburan panjang. 


Trading Buy Hold 26-27 Mei : BBRI, BBCA, BMRI, BDMN, BUMI, ENRG, ELTY, BTEL, PGAS, INDF, MEDC, TLKM, KLBF, JSMR, LSIP, ADRO, UNTR, ASII, DOID, BHIT


Rekomendasi 19-05: 
All done today (20/05)
Hold BBNI: Buy 2.300-2.350 target 2.450-2.500, stop loss 1.950.
Closed Hold MEDC: 2.850-2.900 target 3.100 stop loss, 2.400, buy breakout 3.125 target 3.400.

Closed Hold INCO: Sell 4.200 & then Buy 3.925 target 4.500, stop loss 3.300. 
Closed Hold KLBF: Buy 1.7500 target 1.900, stop 1.650
Hold DILD: Buy on weakness 1.030/1060 target 1140 stop 950.

Hold PNLF: Sell, namun Buy 220 & breakout 260 target 300/350 (med-term 500), stop loss 30 rp
RAJA: Sell on rally hingga 880 target 7020, buy 770 & breakout 900 target 1.000. stop dibawah 700.
 BBRI berada dalam trend bearish, setelah ditutup dibawah support line 7.750, selling power yang kuat, meski ada potensi reversal dari kondisi stochastic yang oversold, candle gravestone doji. BBRI berpeluang rebound dari support 7.350/7.500, jika terjadi tekanan. BBRI memiliki resist di 7.950, jika tembus ke 8.200. Rekomendasi: Speculative buy, stop loss 7.300.

SMRA berada dalam trend bearish dengan selling power yang kuat, meski ada potensi reversal dari pola candle bullish hammer dan penutupan diatas 670 (78.6% Fibo retracement). SMRA berpeluang menuju resist 710, jika tembus menuju 770/830, selama low 660 tidak ditembus. SMRA memiliki support di 660/600. Rekomendasi: Speculative buy, stop loss 650.
Disclaimer on.

Elliot Wave: IHSG & DJIA (4 Hour Charts)

IHSG 4-Jam
Closed Sell 2.660 target 2.561 (Done 25/04= +99 points)/2.530 stop 2.650, Hold buy 2.530/2.500 (2.515) target 2.650 trailing stop 2.550.
Track Record IHSG: 33 Recommendations (25 profits: 2 break even: 4 loss) = (+20p+45p+73p+53+60p+45p+63p+0p+27p+50p-20p+13p+40p+45p+40p+29p-30p-154p-75p+80p+26p+0p+28p+80p+62p+53p+20p+0p+70p+99p). Total : Net +971 points = Average 29.42 point.


DJIA 4-Jam
DJIA:  Closed (24/05/2010) sell breakout 10080 (done 24/05) & sell breakout 9998 target 9800p = +280 points + 198 points = +478 points (Done 25/05).
Track record 12 Trades: (-65p-30p+370p + 280p + 190p-30p+230p-30p+120p+200p-40p+280p+198p). Total Net +1673 points = Average +139.41 points/trade.

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Tomorrow we'll see the Real Fight between Bear Short-Term vs Bull Med-Term. Let's see who's gonna win??? I''ll entry the market on 26/05

Hot Pick: IHSG/DJIA/IDR/EUR/OIL; ASII vs BUMI (Market Profile Analysis)


IHSG: Expect a rebound soon, downside pressure limited

ASII: Med-Term Demand still high, ready to rebound soon
BUMI: Expect a Small rebound, cautious of weak support below
 
 IDR: Hardly tried to punch higher, expect a correction soon
EUR: Strong demand at 1.20's, expect a rebound soon
DJI Fut: Just a correction minor??? Double bottom expected.
OIL: A Fragile Minor Downtrend, Med-Term Demand still high

DJIA: Hold sell breakout 10080 (done 24/05) & sell breakout 9998 target 9800p, trailing stop 30p)

Closed Sell 2.660 target 2.561 (Done 25/04= +99 points)/2.530 stop 2.650, Hold buy 2.530/2.500 (2.515) target 2.650 stop 30p.

Track Record IHSG: 33 Recommendations (25 profits: 2 break even: 4 loss) = (+20p+45p+73p+53+60p+45p+63p+0p+27p+50p-20p+13p+40p+45p+40p+29p-30p-154p-75p+80p+26p+0p+28p+80p+62p+53p+20p+0p+70p+99p). Total : Net +971 points = Average 29.42 point.

Update Daily Investment News

IHSG Sesi I Ditutup Turun 73,06 Poin
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) sesi I Selasa (25/5) ditutup turun 73,06 poin (2,8%) ke level 2.536,55 karena terseret anjloknya bursa regional. Rupiah melemah ke Rp 9.375 (Bloomberg).

MNCN 'Buyback' 5 Juta Saham Senilai Rp1,89 Miliar
PT Media Nusantara Citra Tbk (MNCN) telah melakukan pembelian kembali (buyback) 5 juta saham pada perdagangan 19 Mei 2010.

Ajukan 'Non Preemptive Rights', 'Buy' BUMI
PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) mengagendakan untuk meminta persetujuan penambahan modal tanpa hak memesan efek terlebih dahulu atau non preemptive rights.

BUMI 'Rights Issue' Di Harga Rp1.700
Ada kabar berhembus, Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) bakal menggelar hajatan rights issue di harga Rp1.700 per saham.

PT Matahari Departement Store Tbk (LPPF) berhasil meraih untung sepanjang kuartal I-2010 sebesar Rp79980 miliar, atau naik 296,322% dibandingkan periode sebelumnya rugi sekitar Rp25 juta.

Saham PT Bhakti Investama Tbk (BHIT) bakal dikerek menuju level Rp200 dalam waktu dekat terkait rampungnya akuisisi tambang.

Kabar di pasar berhembus ada sejumlah bandar akan memburu saham PT Medco Energy International Tbk (MEDC) terkait rencana pemerintah mengumumkan Donggi Senoro.

PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) sedang memproses rencana penerbitan saham baru tanpa hak memesan efek terlebih dahulu (HMETD) yang akan dimasukkan dalam agenda RUPS Luar Biasa pada 24 Juni 2010.

    * TINS: PT Timah optimalkan penambangan laut
    * TRUB: Raih Kontrak US$ 115 Juta
    * BUMI: Tawar Saham Newmont US$400 Juta
    * CMNP: Lunasi Obligasi Rp100 Miliar
    * APLI: Terbitkan 200 Juta Saham Baru
    * BRPT: Suntik Dana ke Petrogas US$7,5 Juta
    * CTTH: Proyeksikan Pendapatan Rp165 Miliar
    * BMRI: Kredit Bertambah Rp2 Triliun
    * ASRI: 30% Unit Apartemen Silkwood Residence Terserap
    * UNTR: Jadwal Pembagian Dividen
BLTA: Laba Bersih 1Q Naik 134%


Hasil Rapat Umum Pemegang Saham Tahunan (RUPST) PT Tunas Baru Lampung Tbk (TBLA) memutuskan akan membagikan sisa dividen tunai 2009 sebesar Rp8,112 miliar atau sebesar Rp2 per lembar saham. Direktur PT Tunas Baru Lampung Tbk Sudarmo Tasmin mengatakan pembagian dividen akan dibayar pada 29 Juni 2010. Sedangkan cum dividen pada 18 Juni 2010.

Sumber: Inilah.com, kontan, detikfinance.com (market Flash)

Asian Stocks Fall to 10-Month Low, Won Dives, Commodities Drop
(Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks and the won plunged to 10-month lows after a report that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il ordered his military to prepare for combat last week. The euro weakened and commodities declined on concern Europe’s debt crisis will spread.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aja5s5s5vsF0&pos=1

U.S. Stock Futures Decline on Korean Tensions, Europe Concern
(Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures declined after a report that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il ordered his military to prepare for combat last week and concerns grew that Europe’s debt crisis may spread.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aNl77ByRQx.8&pos=4

Kim Jong Il Orders Military to Get Ready for Combat (Update2)
(Bloomberg) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong Il told the country’s military to be combat-ready in a message broadcast last week that coincided with South Korea’s announcement that it blamed his regime for the sinking of a warship, a dissident group said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=akba261E_8m0&pos=8

S&P 500’s ‘Undercut Low’ May Signal Bottom: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may be in a process of bottoming out after dipping below the intraday low of the May 6 crash, according to Miller Tabak & Co.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=azVpR8xDkzK0

Dollar May Fall Toward 2010 Low Versus Yen: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar may weaken toward 88 yen, near the 2010 low recorded earlier this month, after falling below long-term moving averages, said Pak Lai Ng, a technical analyst in Singapore at Forecast Pte.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a3KNambamcmE

Won May Fall 6% on Break of Moving Average: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- South Korea’s won may decline 6 percent to the lowest level since July in one to two weeks after the currency dropped beyond its 200-day moving average against the dollar, according to Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aPytLuKlDvwk

Options Traders’ Ranks Swell as Amateurs Embrace ‘Iron Condors’
(Bloomberg) -- David Siniapkin, a postal worker in York, Pennsylvania, uses some of his retirement money to trade options. After three years and being down as much as $10,000, he’s broken even.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=abtJr2zb3ckU

Markets Headed For a Double-Dip Recession: Pro
Stocks headed lower on Monday, continuing almost a month of losses. Is this a correction—and if so, how long will it last? Alan Lancz, president of Alan B. Lancz & Associates, and Ronald Carson, founder and chief executive of Carson Wealth Management Group, shared their market outlooks.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37316019

Correction Is 'Not Over'—Market 'Worse Than January'
Stock pared their earlier losses Monday, but investors are continuing to worry about the European debt contagion. Richard Sparks, senior equities analyst at Schaeffer’s Investment Research, and Jack Reutemann, founder of Research Financial Strategies, offered their insights.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37315113

Take A Two-Track Approach to Investing
When it comes to investing, many people divide their money into two separate investment vehicles—a tax-advantaged retirement account, such as a 401(k) or IRA, where the funds are tied up until you’re 59 ½; and a personal investment account, which can be accessed at any time.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37087014

Rekomendasi & Strategy IHSG 25-05

Indeks diperkirakan mengalami kesulitan untuk menguat, karena tingginya volatilty di saat penurunan, DMI menunjukkan selling power yang kuat, MACD bearish, meski stochastic yang oversold dan candle three black crows seharusnya berpotensi menahan laju penurunan dan berpeluang mengalami TECHNICAL SELLING yang ganas (koreksi wave 5/C). Kondisi di negara Eropa akan makin memburuk karena pembayaran hutang Yunani (ditambah memburuknya kondisi perbankan Spanyol), diikuti penurunan rating kredit negara di Eropa (the next target is Irlandia & UK), krisis politik di Thailand dan Korea (Kim Jong Il memerintahkan militer untuk siap perang) dapat mendorong fund asing keluar dari emerging market (EPFR menunjukkan investor outlflow $ 12 miliar dari negara emerging di pekan lalu, terbesar dalam 2 tahun), sentimen negatif dari saham grup Bakrie (BUMI) dan kinerja indeks regional saat ini yang terpuruk, ikut membebani kinerja IHSG hari ini. 


Sell 2.660 & 2.720 target 2.561 (Done 25/04)/2.530 stop 2.650, buy 2.530/2.500 target 2.650 stop 30p.

Trading Buy on weakness sesi 2: banking (BBRI, BBCA, BMRI, BDMN), BUMI, BTEL, PGAS, INDF, MEDC, TLKM, KLBF, JSMR, LSIP, ADRO

BNI Technical Analysis Research:
http://www.ziddu.com/download/9997099/052510t.pdf.html

Rekomendasi 19-05: 
All done today (20/05)
Sell ASRI. .
Hold BBNI: Buy 2.300-2.350 target 2.450-2.500, stop loss 1.950.
Hold MEDC: 2.850-2.900 target 3.100 stop loss, 2.400, buy breakout 3.125 target 3.400.



Hold INCO: Sell 4.200 & then Buy 3.925 target 4.500, stop loss 3.300. 
Closed Hold KLBF: Buy 1.7500 target 1.900, stop 1.650
Hold DILD: Buy on weakness 1.030/1060 target 1140 stop 950.

PNLF: Sell, namun Buy 220 & breakout 260 target 300/350 (med-term 500), stop loss 30 rp
RAJA: Sell on rally hingga 880 target 7020, buy 770 & breakout 900 target 1.000. stop dibawah 700. 

Track Record IHSG: 32 Recommendations (24 profits: 2 break even: 4 loss) = (+20p+45p+73p+53+60p+45p+63p+0p+27p+50p-20p+13p+40p+45p+40p+29p-30p-154p-75p+80p+26p+0p+28p+80p+62p+53p+20p+0p+70p). Total : Net +872 points = Average 27.25 point.

Monday, May 24, 2010

Trading Strategy: ADRO/BBTN/KLBF/SMCB/TLKM/UNVR

ADRO: Sell, if buy breakout 1.900 target 2.050 stop 1.850.

BBTN: Buy on weakness 1.150/1.180 stop loss 1.130 target 1.300

KLBF: Sell, if buy breakout 1.830 target 1.990 stop Rp 40.

SMCB: Buy on weakness near support low 1.940-1.970 stop loss dibawah 1.920

TLKM Sell, if buy breakout 7.550 target 7.850, stop loss 7.400. Buy on weakness 6.800 target 7.550.

UNVR: Buy on weakness 13.700-14.000, stop loss dibawah 13.500 target 15.200

IHSG (Moderate Support) vs BUMI (Weak Support) On Volume Analysis

The Next Analysis are in Market Profile Charts
BUMI Daily

IHSG Daily

BUMI: Trading Strategy (Wave 3/C impulse correction???)

Buy spekulatif di area 1.630 (161.8% Fibo) -1.700 (target rumor sebelumnya) target 2.025, sell 2.025/2.050 target 1.700, stop diatas 2.075. Buy breakout 2.075 target 2.200 stop 75rp. Sell breakout 1.610 stop loss 50rp target 1.500/1.300 (target Fibo gann line).
Disclaimer on.

Hold Sell 2.660 target 2.360/2.550 stop 30p, Sell breakout 2.580. Be Ready buy 2.530 target 2.750 stop 30p.

IHSG

EUR-USD 4Hour

GBP-USD 4Hr

Be ready to Sell DJIA (Sell Area 10.250 & 10.320, sell break 10080, buy back 10.000 then breakout 9998 target 200p stop 30p) & Euro Stoxx tonite

Update Daily Investment News

Indonesia Shows Greece There’s Life After Austerity in BRIC Bid
(Bloomberg) -- If al-Qaeda-linked terrorists thought they could drive foreign investors out of Indonesia, they didn’t reckon with the likes of Jim Castle.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a9xRYqRY.sN0

Won May Fall 6% on Break of Moving Average: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- South Korea’s won may decline 6 percent to the lowest level since July in one to two weeks after the currency dropped beyond its 200-day moving average against the dollar, according to Mitsubishi UFJ Securities Co.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aPytLuKlDvwk

FTSE 100 May Slide 17% If 5,010 Breached: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The FTSE 100 Index may tumble another 17 percent if the benchmark gauge for U.K. equities closes below a key support level at 5,010, according to a technical analyst at Charles Stanley & Co.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aA3TSPxlFA_E

Yield to Rise on ‘Momentum Divergence’: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The yield on the 10-year Treasury note will continue to climb after it completes a “triple momentum divergence,” according to technical analysts at Citigroup Inc.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=akx1QJKPcnt0

CME Palm Oil Futures May Lure Europe, U.S. Investors (Update2)
(Bloomberg) -- A dollar-denominated palm oil contract introduced by CME Group Inc., the largest futures exchange, may attract U.S. and European investors, according to Dorab Mistry, a director at Godrej International Ltd.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aOndlwmvKDE4

Hedge Funds Sell Crude Fastest in Eight Months: Energy Markets
(Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds sold oil at the fastest pace in almost eight months, cutting their bullish bets by 32 percent as crude prices plunged on concern Europe’s debt crisis will hurt energy demand.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aCT6uWo5c0BY

Real Traders Pay Most Premium to Guard Against Drop (Update1)
(Bloomberg) -- Brazilian currency traders are paying the highest premium in developing markets to insure against a tumble in the real after Europe’s debt crisis sparked the biggest monthly retreat since November 2008.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aUyydT6.OIWQ

Dollar to Become ‘Growth Currency’ During Next Decade (Update1)
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar will probably become a “growth currency” during the next 10 years, shedding its haven status of the past decade, as the U.S. economy outperforms Europe and Japan, according to UBS AG. 
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a6j_pFkIA174

ANZ's Pervan Pares Oil Estimate to $85 by Year's End: Video
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a43Vl75Am6sQ

Yoshikami: Why Stocks Likely Won't Fall 20%
In the investment strategist world, I tend to be pretty cautious. I do believe that while economies are recovering, its going to be a long difficult climb from years of excesses.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37313525

Double Dip Recession Now Assured?
With investors facing yet another summer of discontent, one economist has looked back in time for clues on how the following months may place out.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37311088

Euro Club Membership Very Tough to Renounce
Speculation that Greece could opt out of -- or be pushed out of -- the euro zone roiled global stock markets last week.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37311742

Year-Long Rally Is Over: Charts
The year-long trend upwards in the stock market is over and commodities are also set to correct, according to Robin Griffiths, technical analyst at Cazenove Capital. As a result, Griffiths suggested investors look for risk-averse trades.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37205916

Schork Oil Outlook: Can Bulls Beat a 'Nouriel Roubini Week'?
Do the bulls have the upper hand in the short-term?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37315437

When Do You Buy This Market?
As bad as Thursday was for the markets, with the Dow plummeting 376 points and the S&P 500 losing almost 4%, Cramer still isn’t bullish on most stocks.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37266259

Poll: Economists More Upbeat Despite Deficit Worries
U.S. economic prospects are brightening, although Europe's debt troubles serve as a reminder that the United States must tame its own roaring deficit, economists said in a report Monday.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37311077

It's Looking a Lot Like a Correction ... or Worse
by Dave Kansas
Stock prices stabilized on Friday, but it felt like the selling ended more because of exhaustion than because of some return of optimism.
http://finance.yahoo.com/banking-budgeting/article/109624/its-looking-a-lot-like-a-correction-or-worse;_ylt=Alakn6.5M2fusGwi4_YA_rS7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1YmoxaGpmBHBvcwM0BHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzBHNsawNpdHNsb29raW5nYWw-?mod=bb-budgeting&sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=

Gold at $800, say some analysts
Some analysts believe the metal is already overpriced and set up for a fall. But how far, and how fast, can it drop?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gold-at-800-say-some-hftn-53086458.html;_ylt=Ao9bS0tlMWwRnvc7lquI2ue7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTFhbDAxOHAyBHBvcwM0BHNlYwNzcGVjaWFsRmVhdHVyZXMEc2xrA2FiZWFyaXNodmlldw--?x=0

Stock-Market Decline May Soon Run Out of Steam: John Dorfman
(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. stock market reels. Europe cringes at the prospect of serial defaults by Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy. Gooey oil creeps out of the Gulf of Mexico onto land. A computer glitch triggers a near-crash on stock exchanges. Rules for financial firms in the U.S. are being overhauled. North Korea and South Korea rattle sabers.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a4O5ihWWajtI

Goldman’s O’Neill Says Euro Won’t Drop Much Further: Video http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aSI5vlfFT0vE

DBS Group's Wee Says Euro Is `Too Big to Fail' Currency: Video
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aatWf_dgYY8g

Laporan Saham Indonesia 24-05

Saham-saham Bakrie 7 mengalami kejatuhan harga signifikan pada perdagangan hari ini menyusul beredarnya rumor tak sedap yang memicu investor asing melakukan aksi jual massif. Manajemen PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) membantah akan melakukan rights issue.
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2010/05/24/145002/1363043/6/saham-bakrie-7-terkapar-diterjang-rumor-rights-issue-bumi

PT Timah Tbk berencana untuk mengubah lahan bekas tambangnya di Bangka Belitung menjadi hutan tanaman industri (HTI).

Pasar global sebagian besar naik Senin (24/5) setelah beberapa hari terjadi turbulen di tengah harapan bahwa China akan melonggarkan kebijakan mata uangnya.

WIKA Group Menangkan Proyek CGA Tayan
PT Indonesia Chemical Alumina (PT ICA) mengumumkan penunjukan konsorsium WIKA Group sebagai kandidat pertama kontraktor proyek Chemical Grade Alumina (CGA) Tayan.

PT Trikomsel Oke Tbk (Perseroan) dan PT ANZ Panin Bank (ANZ) pada 21 Mei 2010 telah melakukan penandatanganan perjanjian kredit bilateral berupa fasilitas kredit sebesar US$40 juta.

Penjualan CPO PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) Januari-April 2010 mencapai 301.882 ton naik sebesar 0,2%.

Bloomberg - BUMI Resources denies rumors it plans right offers. BUMI has no intention to hold RIGHTS OFFER - Srivatava.

Artikel 11 Mei di Bloomberg: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aYSJv0cT3gts
Bumi Resources, an Indonesian coal producer that has $638 million of debt due by the end of 2012, had its share-price estimate cut to 2,300 rupiah from 2,400 rupiah by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. last month after profit declined in 2009.The extra yield investors demand to own the Jakarta-based company’s $300 million of 12 percent notes callable in 2013 has risen 63 basis points this month to 747 basis points, according to ING Groep NV prices on Bloomberg. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point.


Ups! Asing Keluar, BUMI Terkapar
Saham Bumi Resources (BUMI) tertekan setelah investor asing banyak melakukan aksi jual. Mereka menilai lebih menguntungkan memegang US$ saat ini.

Asosiasi Pertambangan Batubara Indonesia (APBI) menargetkan produksi batubara tahun ini mencapai 320 juta ton atau naik sekitar 6,67 persen dibanding tahun lalu sekitar 300 juta ton.

PT Berau Energy, induk usaha PT Berau Coal memastikan akan melepaskan 20% sahamnya ke publik pada Juli 2010. Perseroan telah menunjuk 4 penjamin emisi IPO.

Antam Gandeng Unsoed Garap CSR
PT Antam Tbk (ANTM) melakukan MOU dengan Universitas Jenderal Soedirman (Unsoed) di bidang tanggung jawab sosial dan lingkungan (Corporate Social Responsibility—CSR).

CMNP Lunasi Pokok Obligasi Rp100 Miliar
PT Citra Marga Nusaplaha Persada Tbk (CMNP) telah melunasi pokok obligasi CMNP III Tahun 2005 dengan tingkat bunga tetap seri C sebesar Rp100 miliar.

Eterindo Beli Saham Global Natural
ETWA berencana membeli saham PT Global Natural Resources di dua anak perusahaan yaitu PT Maiska Bhumi Semesta 56,68% dan PT Malindo Persada Khatulistiwa 56,93%.

Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) dibuka menguat cukup tajam dalam rentang transaksi tipis, seiring dengan tren penguatan bursa-bursa regional Asia yang juga masih tampak ragu-ragu. Nilai tukar rupiah malah turun tipis ke 9.290/US$.
Pada perdagangan Senin (24/5/2010), IHSG dibuka naik tipis ke level 2.623,716 dan kemudian menguat hingga sempat menyentuh level 2.656,299, naik 33 poin dari penutupan kemarin di level 2.623,221. Indeks LQ45 juga menguat 4,770 (0,94%) ke level 507,579.Saat ini pukul 11.26 WIB (+34 poin: 2.658, tertinggi 2.670).

Menneg BUMN mengindikasikan akan meminta dividen 60% dari laba PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) 2009 atau Rp3,74 triliun atau Rp157 per saham.

Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) menghentikan sementara aktivitas perdagangan saham PT Toba Pulp Lestari Tbk (INRU) lantaran telah terjadi kenaikan harga signifikan sebesar 123,08%. Suspensi berlaku dipasar reguler dan tunai terhitung 24 Mei 2010.

Pemegang saham PT Bank Eksekutif Internasional Tbk (BEKS) menyetujui pembatalan rencana penerbitan 85 juta saham baru (10%) senilai Rp 8,5 miliar. RUPS menyetujui peningkatan modal dasar menjadi Rp 2 triliun.

    * UNTR: United Tractors Bagi Dividen Rp1,53 T
    * BBRI: BRI incar pertumbuhan kredit Rp11 triliun
    * INDF: Indofood CBP Masuk Bursa Kuartal IV
    * BBCA: BCA Finance Biayai Showroom Mobkas
    * GPRA: Siapkan Right Issue Rp700 Miliar
    * LMPI: Jaminkan Aset ke BRI
    * ELTY: Gaet Pemodal Asing
    * BBNI: Bidik Kenaikan Kartu Kredit
    * MEDC: Pertamina dan Medco Siap Jalankan Proyek Senoro
    * JSMR: Segera Bangun Dua Tol JORR II

Laba Bersih BLTA Melonjak 134,097% di Q1-2010
BLTA berhasil mencetak laba bersih pada kuartal I-2010 sebesar 134,097% menjadi RpUS$24,902 juta, dibandingkan periode yang sama sebelumnya rugi US$73,032 juta.

PT Citatah Tbk (CTTH) dikabarkan mendapatkan kontrak kedua proyek Ceasar Palace Extention, Las Vegas, Amerika Serikat dan proyek lanjutkan apartemen Hyundai, Korea Selatan.

Northstar, tambang Persada Pte Ltd, diisukan telah menambha kepemilikan saham di Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk (DOID). Pelaku pasar menyebutkan, langkah Northstar karena DOID mengurungkan rencana penerbitan rights issue lantaran gagal mengakuisisi PT Berau Coal dari Recapital Investment Group. Awalnya, Northstar sebetulnya menambah kepemilikan saham DOID tapi pemegang saham lainnya ada persetujuan untuk akuisisi tambang lainnya.

Harga saham PT Bakrieland Development Tbk (ELTY) diprediksikan akan mengalami tekanan cukup kuat terkait rencana penawaran saham umum terbatas IV yang dilakukan perseroan. "Rencana rights issue yang dilakukan perseroan membuat saham terdilusi cukup besar. Pelaku pasar hati-hati menyikapi rencana rights issue perseroan, dan tunggu hingga rencana aksi korporasi perseroan selesai dilakukan," ujar Kepala Riset PT BNI Securities Norico Gaman, saat ditemui seusai acara perayaan ulang tahun investor club IDX, Sabtu (22/5).

Indeks saham Senin (24/5) masih akan dibayangi pelemahan. Investor disarankan mencermati saham yang overweight dari sektor perbankan, tambang dan infrastruktur.

Per April 2010, Kepemilikan Asing di Bursa 66,4%
Porsi asing masih mendominasi perdagangan saham di BEI dengan mencatatkan kepemilikan saham sebesar Rp925,053 miliar atau sekitar 66,4% per April 2010.

Dow Jones Sepekan Anjlok 4%
Saham menguat di akhir pekan akibat investor sduah mulai meletakkan dana mereka di pasar meskipun banyak yang tetap berhati-hati terhadap prospek sistem keuangan Eropa.

Akhir Pekan, Bursa Asia Anjlok 1,3%
Bursa Asia kembali melemah pada akhir perdagangan Jumat (21/5). Hal ini disebabkan kenaikan angka klaim pengangguran AS dan potensi penyebaran krisis Eropa.

Investor asing kembali mengincar surat utang negara (SUN) yang diterbitkan pemerintah Indonesia. Dalam sehari, jumlah kepemilikan asing di SUN bertambah Rp 1 triliun lebih. Menurut catatan Direktorat Pengelolaan Utang Kemenkeu yang dikutip Senin (24/5/2010), kepemilikan asing di SUN bertambah dari posisi 19 Mei 2010 sebesar Rp 144,35 triliun menjadi Rp 145,8 triliun di 20 Mei 2010.

Kenaikan pajak tambang Australia akan memberikan keuntungan tersendiri bagi Indonesia karena pasar batubara internasional kemungkinan bergeser ke Indonesia.

  Harga Melambung, Saham INRU Dihentikan Sementara
Penghentian sementara perdagangan saham INRU dilakukan lantaran harga saham INRU terus melambung secara tidak wajar

  Fuad : Koreksi Ini Hanya Sesaat
meradangnya bursa saham bukan merupakan gejala dari lanjutan krisis global 2008

  IATA Terbitkan Saham Baru untuk Konversi Utang
IATA bakal menerbitkan saham baru tanpa hak memesan efek terlebih dahulu (HMETD) untuk mengonversi utang senilai Rp 34,05 miliar

  MICE Membagikan Dividen Rp 20 Per saham
MICE akan membagikan membagikan sebesar 39,9% dari laba bersih di tahun 2009

Surabhi Chopra, Bahana Securities      Indika Energy (INDY)      Beli       Rp 3.300     
INDY mengincar tambang batubara untuk meningkatkan kapasitas produksi mereka. Meskipun belum mau menyebut tambang itu, analis menilai kinerja INDY masih bisa meningkat.

Katarina Setiawan Kim Eng Securities     Unilever Indonesia (UNVR)     Tahan     Rp 15.800        
UNVR memberikan sisa dividen Rp 299 per saham yang akan dibagikan pada 31 Juli. Analis menghitung dividen yield sebesar 2,1%. Namun saham UNVR sudah mendekati harga wajarnya

Bret Ginesky CLSA Securities     Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN)     Beli     Rp 2.000         
Pemegang saham BBTN akan mendapatkan dividen sebesar Rp 15 per saham. Artinya pemegang saham memperoleh dividend yield 1,18%. Analis melihat fundamental BTN masih akan bagus

Sumber: Detikfinance.com (market flash), inilah.com, kontan

Elliott Wave International Articles

Bigger Than A "10% Correction"? Every Big Bear Grew From a Cub
The famous "10% correction" that market pundits talk about sounds so nice and tidy, so predictable and tolerable. It's as if this "cute little correction" came neatly wrapped, looked like an M&M candy character, and smiled at you and your family after you open the box. If only it were so.
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/05/17/Bigger-Than-A--10-Correction-.aspx

Euro: Nowhere to Hide?
Six months ago, almost every forex trader "hated" the U.S. dollar. Today, everyone "hates" the euro.
In end-of-day forecast for the EUR/USD on Friday, May 15, editor of EWI's Currency Specialty Service Jim Martens made the following comment to his forex subscribers:
A great deal is being made about the bullish sentiment toward the dollar. ...more than 90% of those polled put themselves in the bullish camp. Obviously, sentiment toward the dollar's competitors is running at a bearish extreme.
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/05/17/Euro-Nowhere-to-Hide.aspx

Market Insight: Stocks Oversold? Expecting a Bounce?
Don't be surprised if stocks stage a rally, says EWI's Chief Market Analyst.
In the May 20 issue of his Short Term Update (online now), here's how EWI's Chief Market Analyst Steve Hochberg describes the day's market action:
How broad-based was [Thursday's]  decline? All the stocks in the Dow Industrials closed the day lower. All the stocks in the Dow Transportation Average closed the day down. All the stocks in the Dow Jones Utilities Average closed the day in negative territory. And of the 500 stocks that comprise the S&P 500, 497 of them closed the day down.
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2010/05/21/Market-Insight--Stocks-Oversold-Expecting-a-Bounce.aspx

Kalender Ekonomi & Event


Live Economic Calendar Powered by Forexpros - The Leading Financial Portal