Friday, March 11, 2011

The Best Trades in @GIAA Until 14 Maret - 2 April 2011.

@14/03. Buy breakout 550 target 580 done =  +5.45% (gross profit).
@Previous Week @Buy 500 profit taking at 520/530/550 = + 4.0%  + 6.0% + 10.0%
@16/02: Sell 580 target 500 done = +13.79%
@13/02: Sell 620 & Buy 580 = +12%

TRADED @GIAA: 7 Positions = Total = +51.24 % (kurang dari 1 bulan sejak IPO 13 Februari 2011)

@GIAA: The BEST TRADE: 5x Trading Buy @500 untuk profit taking 520/530/550 (sejak 2 Maret 2011); Buy breakout lagi kalo tembus diatas 550 target 580; buy breakout 580 (if higher vol) target 620/660. Sell jika tembus dibawah 500 target 450 (buy on weakness).

Sources: http://globalmarketstrategist.blogspot.com/2011/02/technical-analysis-ipo-garuda-airlines.html

@IHSG/DJIA: Bearish Reversal For 180% Turnaround vs Oil/Gold: Bearish Continuation

IHSG VBAR:
 
IHSG 15 Minutes
IHSG 4 Jam
DJIA 15 Minutes
DJIA
Oil 60 Minutes
Gold 15 Minutes

Discover how CEO Warren Buffett took home $42,583,971 last year - in passive income

How Some of the Richest CEOs In America Live on $1 a Year. You won’t need a paycheck either when you use their “Rich Trick” to double your wealth every 12 months…The Sweet Part? You Can Do it in Just 10 Minutes.

Sources:http://moneymorning.com/video/mmr/mmr_CEO.php?code=WMMRM114

Benjamin Graham's Perspective on the Dow Jones

During the last two years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 72%. The striking performance of stock prices triggers concern about whether the stock market is overvalued or not. From a bullish perspective, the fundamentals are strong: The increase in stock prices can be attributed to the fast recovery from depression and increasing corporate profits.

If we look at the current valuations from a bearish side, a sharp correction is inevitable to normalize stock prices: Close-to-zero interest rates make it easier to borrow and invest using borrowed money. As long as there is someone else who is willing to pay more for the stocks, prices will rise. That is why stocks have high returns.

Source: http://seekingalpha.com/article/257552-benjamin-graham-s-perspective-on-the-dow-jones

Will March 11th Bring “Day Of Rage” In Saudi Arabia?

Tunisia, Egypt, Libya. What nation is next on the hit parade of social unrest in the Middle East? Could it be the oil exporting nation of Saudi Arabia? What would civil unrest in that nation mean to the price of oil and oil-related products worldwide? How high might the price of gas rise in our nation?

The uncertainty in our equity markets recently is clearly heavily influenced by the turmoil in Libya, but we should keep our eyes focused squarely on Saudi Arabia. Friday March 11th has been designated a “Day of Rage” in the nation where social protests are outlawed. What might happen? What is driving the unsettledness in Saudi Arabia? For a detailed backdrop on what is troubling the people of Saudi Arabia, let’s review a recent Bloomberg interview with Mai Yamani,………

Source: http://www.dailymarkets.com/stock/2011/03/10/will-march-11th-bring-%E2%80%9Cday-of-rage%E2%80%9D-in-saudi-arabia/

Thursday, March 10, 2011

@IHSG: Intraday Overbought & Emerge Sell Signal

IHSG Daily Gann Time & Price (Courtesy of BNI Securities)
IHSG 15 Minutes W.MA: a minor profit taking for a higher ground (potential cup with handle pattern)
 
DJIA 5 Minutes:  Consolidate continues, buy breakout above 12.260 target 12.390.

Update Daily Investment News 10-03

Stocks retreat on bull-market anniversary
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-slide-as-chemical-firms-pressured-2011-03-09

Investor lessons as bull market turns two
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/investor-lessons-as-bull-market-turns-two-2011-03-09

The 2008 crash isn’t over, only covered up
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-2008-crash-isnt-over-only-covered-up-2011-03-08

How to make money in the bull market’s third year
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-to-make-money-in-the-bull-markets-third-year-2011-03-09

Thursday Look Ahead: Stocks Watch Oil, Economy to Snap Band of Indecision
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41998935

Has the Commodities Boom Come to an End?

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41992836

Doug Kass: Market To Frustrate and Unnerve Long-Term Buyers
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41994811

Commodities Tomorrow
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=3000009530&play=1

Taiwan Stocks in Multi-Year Bull Market, to Double in 2 Years: Strategist
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41983173

Happy Days Are Here Again in Europe
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41987012

Oil Spike Due to 'Market Pricing in Risk': Exxon CEO
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41988074


Written by India Forex |  Forex Technical Update
EUR/USD: Euro was more focused on the ongoing Eurozone debt problems. Eurozone government bonds were stable except for Greece, which rose 6bp fresh record high yield. Meanwhile the pair can move volatile today due to many data piled up. Immediate resistance is at 1.3923 levels (H4 21 EMA) followed by psychological resistance is at 1.40 while Immediate support is seen at 1.38700 levels and 1.3848 levels.  Short term: Slight bullish and Medium term: bullish.
GBP/USD: Pound was quite strong trading near 1.6190 levels on improving economic data and was more focused on today's Official Bank Rate which is to be remain near 0.50%. Daily stochastic is showing slight upside direction. Immediate strong support is comes at 1.6185 and if breached then it would dive towards 1.6115 levels and resistance is seen near 1.6205 levels (4hrly Middle Bollinger). Short Term: Slight Bullish and Medium term: bullish
USD/JPY: The pair rose for consecutive second session to hover near Y83 levels with Final GDP q/q coming stable at -0.3% as expected. Daily Stochastic is showing upside movement. Immediate resistance is at 82.83 levels (200 daily EMA) which if broken can spike the pair towards Y84 levels while immediate strong support is at 82.56 levels (Daily 21 Middle Bollinger and 55 EMA). Yen Exporters are suggested to book March month's exposure partially near 82.15 levels and further on dips while Yen Importers can cover their exposure towards 83.25 levels and above. Medium Term: Maintain Bearishness
AUD/USD: The pair is trading at 1.0065 after making a high at 1.0132 levels post NZ rate cut. Kiwi dived initially after RBNZ cut rate by 50bps to 2.50%, deeper than market expectation of 25bps cut in order to lessen the economic impact of the earthquake. Meanwhile AUD Unemployment Rate came stable at 5.0% as expected. Immediate support is seen near 1.0045 levels (55 daily EMA) while Immediate resistance is seen near 1.0100 levels (Daily 21 Middle Bollinger). Exporters are suggested to book March month exposure partially near 1.0200 levels, while Importers can cover their exposure below parity levels. Medium term: Bullish.
Gold: Gold is still trading well inside rising channel with focus on unrest in Arab World and renewed concern about euro zone debt, all supporting the metal's safe haven appeal. However, break of support of 1422.22 (4 hours 55 EMA) will suggest pull back towards 1410 levels. Meanwhile resistance comes at 1436.85 and 1445 levels. is no clear sign of reversal yet. Medium term: Bullish.
Dollar Index: Dollar index is facing strong resistance from 4 hours 55 EMA at 76.87levels and further rise from this levels will give another strong resistance at 77.24 levels (21 days Daily EMA) to limit. Sustained break of 76.13 (Low of 07.03.2011) will send dollar index through 75.63 levels. Short Term: Bearish and Medium Term: Neutral.

Written by Admiral Markets The Daily Wave Analysis
Currency pair EUR/USD

Presumably, the impulse an of (ii) is formed. At the same time it is not excluded, that the wave an of (ii) is already generated in the form of the Zigzag. Depth and duration of formed correction can prompt what model of the wave (ii) of [ii] as a result the price will prefer

Currency pair GBP/USD.
Probably, the wave b of (y) is generated. If the assumption is true, it is possible to expect falling of the price as the impulse or the Diagonal Triangle with of (y). At the same time, there is the probability, that by the present moment the part of the wave b of (y) is generated only, and its formation still can proceed

Currency pair USD/JPY.
Presumably, the wave (y) the double (threefold) Zigzag [z] of 4 is formed. Probably, by the given moment the wave b of (y) was generated. If the assumption is true, it is possible to expect continuation of growth of pair as the impulse or the Diagonal Triangle with of (y) of [z].

Four time bombs that will blow up Wall Street

(MarketWatch) — Put Goldman Sachs CEO Lloyd Blankfein in jail for six months, and all this will stop, all over Wall Street and America, a former congressional aide tells Matt Taibbi in his latest Rolling Stone attack, “Why Isn’t Wall Street in Jail? Financial crooks brought down the world’s economy — but the feds are doing more to protect them than to prosecute them.”

Taibbi’s right, everyone knows Wall Street’s run by a bunch of dictators who are doing more damage to democracy and capitalism than North Africa’s dictators. But jail the CEOs of Goldman, Citi, B. of A. or my old firm Morgan Stanley? Too late.

Source: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/four-time-bombs-that-will-blow-up-wall-street-2011-03-01

World's Billionaires 2011: Record Year For The Richest

Carlos Slim remains the world’s richest person for a second year with estimated assets of $74 billion, according to Forbes magazine’s annual global ranking of billionaires.

The net worth of Mexico’s Slim, 71, whose holdings include the largest mobile phone operator in the Americas, rose $20.5 billion. Bill Gates, 55, chairman of Redmond, Washington-based Microsoft Corp. (MSFT), was second again as his net worth rose $3 billion to $56 billion. Warren Buffett, 80, chief executive officer of Omaha, Nebraska-based Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK/A), held on to third place with $50 billion.

Sources:
http://www.forbes.com/wealth/billionaires
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-09/carlos-slim-tops-forbes-list-of-billionaires-for-second-year.html

The Indonesian Richest:
Source: http://bisniskeuangan.kompas.com/read/2011/03/10/10461513/Ini.14.Orang.Terkaya.di.Indonesia
http://www.detikfinance.com/read/2011/03/10/080700/1588360/4/chairul-tanjung-dkk-wakili-ri-dalam-daftar-orang-terkaya-dunia

Wednesday, March 9, 2011

@Perfect Combo Technical Analysis (DJIA/IHSG (Bull) vs Oil/Gold (Bear))

IHSG Market Profile: Strong resistance ahead of area 3.620-3.680
DJIA 5 Minutes
DJIA 240 Minutes: The Bull is just the beginning
 
Oil 240 Minutes: Volatile in overbought market
Gold 240 Minutes: impulse 3 in charge

Oil and Gold Prices Surge as Speculators Bet Billions Shorting the Dollar

Oil reached a 29-month high (yesterday) Monday morning in London and gold hit an intraday record as investors sought to hedge against inflation and traders bet billions shorting the dollar.

Brent crude futures contracts in London gained 0.1% yesterday to close at $116.11 a barrel, pushed higher by the Middle East crisis disrupting the oil supply. Crude for April delivery was up 0.9% to $105.36 in Monday afternoon trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX).

Fighting in Libya so far has reduced the country's oil output by 1 million barrels per day.

Source: http://moneymorning.com/2011/03/08/oil-and-gold-prices-surge-as-speculators-bet-billions-shorting-the-dollar/

Louise Yamada - $80 Silver, $2,000 Gold & $140 Oil

With gold near all-time highs and silver at multi-decade highs, King World News interviewed Louise Yamada, well known for her astounding work on Wall Street.  Louise had some extraordinary targets on silver and oil, and when asked gold she stated, “Gold looks fine as it is moving to a new high.  Gold is probably on its way to $1,500 and then $2,000.  Silver is outperforming right now, but they take turns so that is normal.  Gold remains in a structural bull market that was initiated in 2002.”

Source: http://kingworldnews.com/kingworldnews/KWN_DailyWeb/Entries/2011/3/6_Louise_Yamada_-_$80_Silver,_$2,000_Gold_%26_$140_Oil.html

The Beauty & Powerful "Wave" Moving Average 3D (W.MA)

IHSG 15 Minutes (Click on the chart to see a larger view)

Update Daily Investment News 09-03

Cautious of March 16th & Why Stocks Could Collapse...
Beginning as Soon as March 31st!


Bulls Drive Stocks out of Danger Zone, For Now
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41968728

Talking Numbers
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=3000008810&play=1

Emerging Markets Still the Place to be: Strategist
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41962904

Europe Debt Crisis May Boil to Surface This Week
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41971747

Hedge Fund to Predict Markets Using Twitter
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41948279

Speculators Fueling Oil?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=3000009227&play=1

Five Things We're Watching: March 9, 2011
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41976518


Indonesia Coal Areas Have Infrastructure Hurdles, WoodMac Sayshttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-08/indonesia-coal-areas-have-infrastructure-hurdles-woodmac-says.html

Two Years Later, Bears Still Hiding in Their Caves
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41951770

Bulls Likely to Win This 'Tug-of-War' Market: Strategist

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41968254

Stock Rally, Now 2 Years Old, May Have More Room to Run

http://www.cnbc.com/id/41951464

How Twitter Is Transforming Trading in Commodities
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41948275

The Dollar Is Up and the Euro Is Slipping. No, This Isn't a Typo
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41967344

Schork Oil Outlook: The Dollar / Oil Relationship
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41969133

Rain or Shine, Oil Prices Headed Higher: Faber
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41961949

States Likely to Head Off Major Bond Defaults: Ross
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41965572

Roubini Sees Double Dip for Advanced States If Oil Hits $140
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-08/roubini-says-oil-prices-at-140-may-result-in-double-dip-in-some-nations.html

OPEC lifting oil output to cool pricing: reports
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/opec-lifting-oil-output-to-cool-pricing-reports-2011-03-08

Market bulls defend significant support
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-bulls-defend-significant-support-2011-03-08

Oil May Surge to $120 a Barrel After Breaching $103: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-07/oil-may-surge-to-120-a-barrel-after-breaching-103-technical-analysis.html

Silver, Close to 31-Year Peak, Displays Bearish Signal: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-08/silver-close-to-31-year-peak-displays-bearish-signal-technical-analysis.html

The 2008 crash isn’t over, only covered up & Market Crash 2011: It will hit by Christmas

(MarketWatch) - We have hard evidence Washington and Wall Street knew the 2008 crash was coming years in advance. Yes, they could have prevented it. But didn’t. And, yes, the cover-up cost Americans trillions.

Was their Reaganomics ideology so rigid, so blinding, they couldn’t (and still cannot) admit they were wrong? Forcing them to lie to America? Cover up the lies? The evidence is clear.

Detail Sources: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-2008-crash-isnt-over-only-covered-up-2011-03-08

Market Crash 2011: It will hit by Christmas

(MarketWatch) — Politicians lie. Bankers lie. Yes, they’re liars. But they’re not bad, it’s in their genes, inherited. Their brains are wired that way, warn scientists. Like addicts, they can’t help themselves. They want to sell stuff, get rich.

We want to believe they’re telling us the truth. Silly, huh? Both trapped in this eternal “dance of death” controlled by programs hidden deep in our brains, telling us what to do, telling us to ignore facts to the contrary — till it’s too late, till a new crisis crushes all of us.

Detail Sources: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/market-crash-2011-it-will-hit-by-christmas-2011-02-22

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Morgan Stanley: Indonesia Macro Trip Takeaways

By Deyi Tan, Hozefa Topiwalla & Shweta Singh | Singapore

What's new?
We hosted a macro trip to Jakarta, meeting with policy-makers, such as BKPM, BAPPENAS, MOF and Bank Indonesia, and independent macro observers, such as the World Bank. We highlight the key trip takeaways below:

1) Cyclical Downside Risks to Growth; Cyclical Upside Risks to Inflation

Downside risks to growth and upside risks to inflation were highlighted. With inflation remaining above target due to supply shocks from food and oil, the need to manage inflation expectations from cost-push inflation spillover remains. Regional currencies appear to be riding on a wave of appreciation, and so is the rupiah. A combination of different policy response mix (i.e., currency, interest rate, liquidity and macro prudential measures) is likely to be undertaken to reinforce policy effectiveness.

In Indonesia, the currency and the interest rate were de-coupled in 2010, courtesy of QE2, strong capital inflows into this part of the world and the ‘trilemma' pressures that central banks were facing. However, with inflation being a concern, Bank Indonesia not having been ahead of the curve in managing inflation and capital flow volatility, we think the currency and interest rate policy will likely be coupled again in 2011. We believe that currency appreciation will reinforce the effectiveness of the monetary policy response, but it is unlikely to replace the interest rate tool as the key tool.

2) The FX War Chest Is Growing; Structural Story Remains Alive

A current account surplus is expected for 2011, although this is likely to narrow and possibly give way to a current account deficit in 2012 as imports expand. The financial account is expected to improve, with FDI taking up a more significant share compared to portfolio flows. On the back of balance-of-payments flow, the foreign reserve level continues to rise and has now reached the US$100 billion mark (see ASEAN MacroScope Indonesia: The US$100bn War Chest, February 14, 2011).

We think that reaching the US$100 billion mark is an important milestone. We have been highlighting the bullish story of structural decline in the cost of capital since 2009 (see Indonesia Economics: Adding Another ‘I' to the B-R-I-C Story? June 12, 2009) and FX reserves are an important part of this. External funding linkages and their collateral impact on IDR during risk-aversion periods have been Indonesia's Achilles' heel. A sturdy war chest of foreign reserves should help break the vicious loop that tends to go from capital flight to liquidity dry-up to currency depreciation to import-led inflation and then to forced policy tightening. Macro volatility is reduced, driving lower lows and lower highs in capital cost, which in turn will help incentivise investment and engineer higher potential growth. With the higher foreign reserve levels, policy-makers also appear to be more comfortable in managing liquidity risks this time round. Indeed, in this context and despite cyclical inflation issues, the structural story of decline in the cost of capital in Indonesia remains very much alive.

3) Private Investment Story Underway; Infrastructure Investment Likely to Follow

Private investment momentum remains healthy, and momentum is expected to pick up further this year. This underpins our story on how the medium-term structural decline in capital cost will help incentivise further private investment growth. On the other hand, however, infrastructure bottlenecks continue to be bugbears. Recent stories of congestion and stranded trucks in Port Merak are a case in point. The latest fiscal budget appears to have planned for an increase in infrastructure expenditure. However, execution of infrastructure investment remains a focal point.

On the infrastructure front, we believe that reforms are gaining pace, which will ultimately help to support infrastructure spending. Indeed, while President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono first held the Infrastructure Summit in 2005, we think 2005 should not be seen as the inflexion point in infrastructure spending, but rather the start of the infrastructure reform momentum. The message we got this time appears to be consistent with what we have heard previously (see Indonesia Strategy: Key Takeaways from Our Jakarta Trip, January 10, 2011). Several important regulatory changes have been made, and others are underway. For example, the Indonesia Infrastructure Guarantee Fund, which has been set up, will help to provide government guarantees to improve the bankability of PPP projects. PT SMI and PT IIF will help provide long-term financing for PPP projects. The Project Development Facility, on the other hand, will help to improve project preparation. Meanwhile, policy-makers are also proposing to make the tendering process more flexible to remove the minimum requirement for number of bidders. The new land acquisition bill is also expected to be passed in the first semester this year, which would help to reduce both the cost and time uncertainty in acquiring land. The 2010-14 PPP Book outlines 100 projects worth US$47 billion. However, policy-makers intend to prioritise five key projects, namely: 1) Central Java Power Plant; 2) Bali cruise terminal; 3) Jakarta Airport rail connection; 4) East Java Water Supply; and 5) Medan airport toll road, to inspire confidence in Indonesia's ability to execute on PPP projects. Tender for most of these projects will be done in 2011.

http://www.morganstanley.com/views/gef/index.html

Commodities Bull Is Raging

Precious metals, oil and other commodities will continue to move firmly upward because there simply isn't enough supply out there to meet growing demand, as Adrian Day of Adrian Day Asset Management discusses in this exclusive interview with MoneyShow.com. 

Detail Sources: http://www.moneyshow.com/investing/articles.asp?aid=VideoTrans-22258 

Technical Analysis - Copper - Hesitates below overhead supply

Detail Sources: http://basemetals.com/news/?id=28141&v=33&lang=en&cid=133735&type=1

Technical Analysis - Zinc - On course to test neckline

Detail Sources: http://basemetals.com/news/?id=27533&v=49&lang=en&cid=133816&type=1

Nickel futures down on weak global cues
Nickel prices fell by Rs 2.80 to Rs 1,299.40 per kg in futures trading today as speculators reduced their positions amid weak trend at the London Metal Exchange (LME).

Detail Sources: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/commodities/nickel-futures-down-on-weak-global-cues/articleshow/7646405.cms

Global steel price jumps 10pct in February - MEPS
http://www.steelguru.com/international_news/Global_steel_price_jumps_10pct_in_February_-_MEPS/194205.html

Steel price dip may continue - MOFCOM
http://www.steelguru.com/chinese_news/Steel_price_dip_may_continue_-_MOFCOM/194153.html

Gold and iron expected to rise, copper steady
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Gold-and-iron-expected-to-rb-3021133876.html?x=0&.v=2

@IHSG is Bullish Continuation vs DJIA is Going To Reverse

IHSG GANN (Courtesy: BNI Securities Daily TA)
IHSG 15 Minutes: Still inching higher
IHSG EW & GANN 240 Minutes: Bullish continuation in a overbought
DJIA 240 Minutes: In oversold teritorial, ready to reverse soon
OIL 240 Minutes: Overbought & reversal bearish
GOLD 240 Minutes: Overbought & potential reversal bearish

Update Daily Investment News 08-03

Tuesday Look Ahead: More Bumps Seen for Stocks   
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41958512

Rain or Shine, Oil Prices Headed Higher: Faber
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41961949

Oil to Kill Bull Market?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=3000009000&play=1

Next Target for Silver $39, But Stop Loss is Key: Chartist
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41960177

Dennis Gartman: Oil Probably Won’t Go Any Higher
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41950929

Cramer: Post-Gaddafi, Dow to Rally 1,000 Points
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41958428

10 Reasons To Be Bullish on Hedge Funds
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41864113

Stocks to Consider for Third Year of Bull Market
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41951244

Is Two-Year Stock Rally Just Creating Another Bubble?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41938996

The Market Is 10% Undervalued: Mutual Fund Manager
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41888891

Hedge Fund Titans Struggling to Outrun S&P
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41951048

Oil Should Fall if Gaddafi Goes Away...for Now
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41950908

Busch: The Illusion of an Impervious Euro
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41907693

As Stocks Return to Normal, Gains May Be More Modest
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41910402

Traders 'Short' Dollar as Currency Loses Attraction
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41943872

The Bull Turns 2, But Will It Suffer from "Terrible 2s?"
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41949183

Schork Oil Outlook: Duration and Contagion Supporting Higher Oil
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41947481

Food, Not Oil, Bigger Threat to Global Inflation?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41942045

Monday, March 7, 2011

6 Years And Counting: Why Investing In Commodities Is Still The Way To Go

Back in 2005 I commented in an article that “my investment portfolio is almost exclusively invested in a basket of commodities (gold, silver, potash, uranium and crude oil) of which the bulk is precious metals. A third of my investments are in gold and silver bullion and a range of individual commodity-related stocks, from the very large producers to the very early stage small junior exploration companies, or their long-term warrants where they exist. Two thirds are in precious metals ETFs.”

It is now 2011 and my rationale for doing what I did back then has stood the test of time and, I expect, will continue to do so for many more years to come.

Let me explain why I still think such a basket of commodity-related assets is the only way to go. I also encourage you to read my recent article entitled “Confessions of a Conservative Investor” here in which I explain why I believe there is nothing speculative about investing in commodities and why, in fact, they are the ideal investments for cautious investors.

Detail Sources: http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy/2011/03/06/6-years-and-counting-why-investing-in-commodities-is-still-the-way-to-go/

Coal, Not Yet A “Fossil”
Most of us know coal as a dirty, black, smelly fossil fuel that has made investors some clean, green and sweet profits recently. I believe that investment in coal remains bullish,and here’s why:

1. While the media focuses on new energy technologies, the truth is that less than of power produced worldwide is through solar and wind. While there is obviously growth potential, the cost outweighs the hype in our present economic environment.

2. Natural gas supplies only 20% of electricity globally.

3. Steel production uses over 10% of world coal production. 70$ of the world’s steel
production requires coal as the primary energy source. It takes approximately
1300 lbs. of coal (coke) to produce one ton of steel.

4. Over 40% of the world’s electricity comes from coal-fired plants.

5. China,the worlds largest consumer of coal, with even more coal-fired power
plants coming online, is betting on fossil fuel even as it sells alternative energy technologies to the West.

6. Coal usage is expected to trend up over the next decade. Cleaner coal technology
is already showing improvements in carbon and other pollutant emissions.

Detail Sources: http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy/2011/03/05/coal-not-yet-a-fossil/#comment-233969

Now Is Not The Time

Those who’ve read my books know that my longer-term outlook for the U.S. currency is decidedly bearish. But I am a trader and a contrarian at heart, so when I look at the depth and breadth of negative newsflow on the dollar that has cropped up this past week (some of which I’ve highlighted below), it often means just one thing: now is not the best time to be betting on the downside.

Detail Sources: http://www.dailymarkets.com/economy/2011/03/06/now-is-not-the-time/

Sunday, March 6, 2011

@80%-90% Proven Accuracy With EW + Gann + SMA

IHSG Gann Price & Time Daily
IHSG 60 Minutes: upside limited to breakout 3.550, in a overbought
IHSG 240 Minutes: could managed to breakout 3.550 for target 3.620/3.700 on stochastic crossing buy
DJIA 5 Minutes: rebound in oversold for the opening market
DJIA 240 Minutes: Bearish mode + stochastic crossing sell
Oil Daily: In overbought, a limited upside
Gold 240 Minutes: In overbought, a limited upside
USD-IDR Weekly: strong sell signal
EUR-USD Daily: Overbought for sell on rally intraday

 
N225 Japan Hourly: overbought & should be correct lower further
HSI Hong Kong 4-Hour: a triangle pattern, to correcting lower

Kalender Ekonomi & Event Global (07 - 11 Maret 2011) = Higher Oil vs Strong Earnings + Economy

Kalender Ekonomi & Event:
WIB +12 Jam: http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php 

Retail Sales in U.S. Probably Climbed in February as Auto Purchases Rose
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-06/retail-sales-in-u-s-probably-climbed-in-february-as-auto-purchases-rose.html

Week Ahead: Oil Pressure to Remain on Stocks
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41914734

Cramer: 9 Earnings to Watch Next Week
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41912183

Stocks End Up for Week, Amid Volatility
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41907885

What's Next for Stocks?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41912419

Dollar Option Bulls Come Out in Force After Payrolls
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41906809

Jobs, Oil & Your Money
http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1828983749&play=1

Investors Prefer Bonds to Equities: Fund Tracker EPFR
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41906273

Will the Market Continue its Run in March?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41911458

Halftime: Is the Market a Prisoner to Oil Prices?
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41907005

Traders: Despite Selling, Bulls Ended Week Ahead
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41907035

Crude Oil Advances to a 29-Month High as Libya Unrest Threatens to Spread
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-04/crude-oil-advances-to-a-29-month-high-as-libya-unrest-threatens-to-spread.html

Euro May Extend Its Climb to 13-Month High of $1.4450: Technical Analysis
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-04/euro-may-extend-advance-to-13-month-high-of-1-4450-technical-analysis.html

Indonesia Interest-Rate Pause `Golden Opportunity Missed' to Tame Prices

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-04/indonesia-holds-rate-as-rupiah-gains-give-temporary-inflation-reprieve.html

Timah’s Tin Production Disrupted in First Quarter, Reuters Says
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-04/timah-s-tin-production-disrupted-in-first-quarter-reuters-says.html

Asian Currencies Strengthen This Week as Central Banks May Tolerate Gains
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-04/asian-currencies-strengthen-this-week-as-central-banks-may-tolerate-gains.html

Commodities Rise to Two-Year High as Cotton Jumps to Record, Cocoa Gains
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-04/commodities-rise-to-two-year-high-as-cotton-jumps-to-record-cocoa-gains.html

EWI: Crude Oil: Is The Black Gold Bull Back For Good?

Can the Stock Market See the Future?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/03/04/Can-the-Stock-Market-See-the-Future.aspx 

A Compelling Elliott Wave Pattern Emerges In Gold, Again
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/03/02/A-Compelling-Elliott-Wave-Pattern-Emerges-In-Gold-Again.aspx

Crude Oil: Is The Black Gold Bull Back For Good?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/03/04/Crude-Oil-Is-The-Black-Gold-Bull-Back-For-Good-.aspx

U.S. Dollar Falls Despite Strong U.S. Economic News. Why?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/03/03/U.S.-Dollar-Falls-Despite-Strong-U.S.-Economic-News.-Why.aspx

Big Advantages of Trading with the Wave Principle
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/03/03/Big-Advantages-of-Trading-with-the-Wave-Principle.aspx

Which Is the True End to This Story Of A Trader?
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/03/02/Dick-Diamond--Which-is-the-true-end-to-this-story-of-a-trader.aspx

Breaking News Bulletin: News Is NOT the Main Driver of Stock Market Trends
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/03/01/Breaking-News-Bulletin-News-Is-NOT-the-Main-Driver-of-Stock-Market-Trends.aspx

Socionomics: First Do No Harm
http://www.elliottwave.com/freeupdates/archives/2011/03/03/Socionomics-First-Do-No-Harm.aspx

Kalender Ekonomi & Event


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