Saturday, August 29, 2009
Track Record 15 Saham Pekan Ini (24 - 28 Agustus 2009)
Track Record (17 Juni - 28 Agustus 2009 = 10 Pekan) Average 65.56% (9 Pekan) + 1.81% (total 67.37% : 15 saham pilihan pekan ini) = Total 67.37% (10 Pekan berturut-turut positive return) = Average 6.737%/Week. BUMI -1.7%,UNSP -2.1%, ASII +2.0%, BBRI +6.1%, BMRI +1.9%, ITMG -1.6%, CTRA 0%, MNCN 0%, INKP -1.6%, INDF +1.9%, PGAS +3.7%, KLBF 0%, DOID +19.5%, BRPT 0%, JSMR -1.0%. Ready to buy on weakness (01-09) ahead of Inflation & BI rate (pre: unchanged) hold till Friday (04-09) ahead of US Payroll & G20 meeting in London (04 - 05/09). GL
Week Ahead: Is the Sun Setting on the Market Rally?
CNBC.COM |
The twilight week of summer could provide some new clues about the strength of the stock market's rally after Labor Day.Ask any trader, and the conventional wisdom you hear will be to expect a quiet week, but watch out after Labor Day when Wall Street gets back to work. Still, there's a heavy calendar of important economic data this week that will show more detail about the strength of the economic recovery.
The Dow in the past week rose just 0.4 percent to 9544, its sixth gain in seven weeks. The Dow is now up 4.1 percent for the month, so far its best August in nine years. The S&P 500 was up just 0.2 percent for the week to 1028, and is on track for a 4.2 percent monthly gain, also the best August since 2000. The dollar was fractionally higher on the week against a basket of currencies. It was down 0.3 percent against the euro, at $1.4302. Treasurys held their ground, and commodities were mostly higher
"In the next two weeks, things are going to change for stocks and bonds rather dramatically, and one of those has it wrong," said David Ader, head of Treasury strategy at CRT Capital. "It's the data we're going to get in the next couple of weeksthis second set of third quarter data that is going to start showing how things are going one way or the other."
There is little corporate earnings news to propel stocks, and the markets will focus instead on the stream of manufacturing, jobs and other data.
Citigroup chief U.S. equities strategist Tobias Levkovich is one of those expecting stocks to pull back in the fall. His year end target for the S&P is 1000, slightly below the current level.
One reason he expects a sell off is that investors will begin to look ahead to the next year, and as of now, earnings estimates for 2010 are too high. Levkovich expects bottom up earnings for the S&P 500 to increase 13.3 percent over 2009, but the street consensus is nearly double that level.
Traders also say the large amount of cash that has stayed out of the market could act as a cushion against losses, as fund managers take advantage of dips to put money into stocks. "Consensus is that we're not going to get any more money into the market until the market pulls back," said Art Hogan of Jefferies. "Everybody we talk to is of the same mind set. Typically when that happens, you don't get the pull back."
"One thing about next week is people are going to make excuses about prices, no matter what happens, and blame it on volume," said Pimco market strategist Tony Crescenzi. Stocks have rallied on low volume, a concern for analysts who say the market's move lacks conviction. "Prices always find equilibrium. I don't buy the volume idea," he said.
However, traders have been concerned that on several days in the past week, market volume was dominated by heavy trading in low quality financial names, like Fannie Mae [FNM 2.04  +0.12 (+6.25%)] , Citigroup [C 5.23  +0.18 (+3.56%)] , AIG [AIG 50.23  +2.39 (+5.00%)]and Freddie Mac [FRE 2.40  +0.16 (+7.14%)] .
Econorama
As the debate rages about whether the stock market is topping out, there is the parallel debate about the shape of the economic recovery. Economists mostly expect the third quarter to show positive growth, driven by a pickup in production as industry looks to rebuild inventories.
The view that this activity will lead to broader recovery has helped drive stocks higher, giving the S&P 500 a more 50 percent plus gain since early March. But now a common view is that some of those gains will evaporate because the recovery is not keeping up with the stock market. There is also concern that the economy could double dip.
Jobs are one of the most important data points to watch. Although employment is a lagging indicator, the declines need to subside before the economy can recover. Weekly unemployment claims have stalled out recently in terms of showing improvement, signaling some analysts that the recovery could be slower than they expected. "The claims level suggests losses of over 300,000," in non-farm payrolls, said Crescenzi. Consensus is that 230,000 jobs were lost in August.
ISM is also important this week. It is expected to rise above 50, signaling a growing economy for the first time in months. In the coming week, Chicago purchasing managers data is reported Monday. ISM manufacturing is Tuesday, as are pending home sales, construction spending, auto sales, and the Fed's minutes. On Wednesday, ADP's employment report, productivity and costs and factory orders are reported. Weekly jobless claims and ISM non-manufacturing are released Thursday, and Friday is all about August's employment report. Investors will also be watching the G-20 finance ministers as they gather Friday in London, ahead of the G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh later in the month.
Oil Drill
Oil was up 1.6 percent for the week at $72.74 per barrel. The October natural gas contract fell 6 percent for the week to $3.033 per million BTUs.
I think we're poised to break out," said M.F. Global senior vice president John Kilduff. "I think oil's run at $75 last week was a probe at what's going to be a new higher range for prices. What will help that will be continued weakness of the dollar. Even if we get just an okay reading on the unemployment numbers on Friday, that could be enough to propel this higher."
Kilduff said natural gas, which recovered some of its losses in the past week, should remain under pressure because of the supply dynamics
Gold gained $3.80 per troy ounce for the week, ending at $957.
The twilight week of summer could provide some new clues about the strength of the stock market's rally after Labor Day.Ask any trader, and the conventional wisdom you hear will be to expect a quiet week, but watch out after Labor Day when Wall Street gets back to work. Still, there's a heavy calendar of important economic data this week that will show more detail about the strength of the economic recovery.
The Dow in the past week rose just 0.4 percent to 9544, its sixth gain in seven weeks. The Dow is now up 4.1 percent for the month, so far its best August in nine years. The S&P 500 was up just 0.2 percent for the week to 1028, and is on track for a 4.2 percent monthly gain, also the best August since 2000. The dollar was fractionally higher on the week against a basket of currencies. It was down 0.3 percent against the euro, at $1.4302. Treasurys held their ground, and commodities were mostly higher
"In the next two weeks, things are going to change for stocks and bonds rather dramatically, and one of those has it wrong," said David Ader, head of Treasury strategy at CRT Capital. "It's the data we're going to get in the next couple of weeksthis second set of third quarter data that is going to start showing how things are going one way or the other."
There is little corporate earnings news to propel stocks, and the markets will focus instead on the stream of manufacturing, jobs and other data.
Citigroup chief U.S. equities strategist Tobias Levkovich is one of those expecting stocks to pull back in the fall. His year end target for the S&P is 1000, slightly below the current level.
One reason he expects a sell off is that investors will begin to look ahead to the next year, and as of now, earnings estimates for 2010 are too high. Levkovich expects bottom up earnings for the S&P 500 to increase 13.3 percent over 2009, but the street consensus is nearly double that level.
Traders also say the large amount of cash that has stayed out of the market could act as a cushion against losses, as fund managers take advantage of dips to put money into stocks. "Consensus is that we're not going to get any more money into the market until the market pulls back," said Art Hogan of Jefferies. "Everybody we talk to is of the same mind set. Typically when that happens, you don't get the pull back."
"One thing about next week is people are going to make excuses about prices, no matter what happens, and blame it on volume," said Pimco market strategist Tony Crescenzi. Stocks have rallied on low volume, a concern for analysts who say the market's move lacks conviction. "Prices always find equilibrium. I don't buy the volume idea," he said.
However, traders have been concerned that on several days in the past week, market volume was dominated by heavy trading in low quality financial names, like Fannie Mae [FNM 2.04  +0.12 (+6.25%)] , Citigroup [C 5.23  +0.18 (+3.56%)] , AIG [AIG 50.23  +2.39 (+5.00%)]and Freddie Mac [FRE 2.40  +0.16 (+7.14%)] .
Econorama
As the debate rages about whether the stock market is topping out, there is the parallel debate about the shape of the economic recovery. Economists mostly expect the third quarter to show positive growth, driven by a pickup in production as industry looks to rebuild inventories.
The view that this activity will lead to broader recovery has helped drive stocks higher, giving the S&P 500 a more 50 percent plus gain since early March. But now a common view is that some of those gains will evaporate because the recovery is not keeping up with the stock market. There is also concern that the economy could double dip.
Jobs are one of the most important data points to watch. Although employment is a lagging indicator, the declines need to subside before the economy can recover. Weekly unemployment claims have stalled out recently in terms of showing improvement, signaling some analysts that the recovery could be slower than they expected. "The claims level suggests losses of over 300,000," in non-farm payrolls, said Crescenzi. Consensus is that 230,000 jobs were lost in August.
ISM is also important this week. It is expected to rise above 50, signaling a growing economy for the first time in months. In the coming week, Chicago purchasing managers data is reported Monday. ISM manufacturing is Tuesday, as are pending home sales, construction spending, auto sales, and the Fed's minutes. On Wednesday, ADP's employment report, productivity and costs and factory orders are reported. Weekly jobless claims and ISM non-manufacturing are released Thursday, and Friday is all about August's employment report. Investors will also be watching the G-20 finance ministers as they gather Friday in London, ahead of the G-20 meeting in Pittsburgh later in the month.
Oil Drill
Oil was up 1.6 percent for the week at $72.74 per barrel. The October natural gas contract fell 6 percent for the week to $3.033 per million BTUs.
I think we're poised to break out," said M.F. Global senior vice president John Kilduff. "I think oil's run at $75 last week was a probe at what's going to be a new higher range for prices. What will help that will be continued weakness of the dollar. Even if we get just an okay reading on the unemployment numbers on Friday, that could be enough to propel this higher."
Kilduff said natural gas, which recovered some of its losses in the past week, should remain under pressure because of the supply dynamics
Gold gained $3.80 per troy ounce for the week, ending at $957.
The Billionaire You Should Follow Into Stocks
CNBC STAFF AND WIRE REPORTS | August 28, 2009 | 5:44 PM EDT
If you’re bored with trading in the wake of Warren Buffett, may we suggest another Wall Street whale for your consideration.We’re talking billionaire investor John Paulson. Although this hedge fund giant isn’t as widely known as Warren Buffett-- and he isn’t as rich as Warren Buffett -- heisa figure pro investors watch carefully.
(In case you’re wondering Paulson ranked #78 on the 2008 Forbes list with a net worth of $4.5 billion.)“This is someone themutual fundsare watching. This is someonw who thehedge fundsare watching," says Steve Grasso of Stuart Frankel. "This is the Warren Buffett for the next generation."Isn't he someone you should be watching too?
His big claim to fame was predicting the implosion of mortgage markets in 2007 and the collapse of banks and other financial companies in 2008. In fact, he made a lot of money when everyone else lost their shirts.
Since then, Pualson's every move has been monitored closely by big investors with the pros always especially eager to see how he trades the banking sector.
And we see no reason why the pros should know something that you don't! Following you'll find Paulson's largest bank sector holdings, according to his latest 13F filing.
John Paulson Investments in Financials: - 2% Stake in Citigroup*
- 168 million shares of Bank of America
- 2 million shares of Goldman Sachs
- 2 million Shares of UltraShort Financials ProShares
* Paulson’s 2% stake in Citi was reported by the NYPost
Should you follow Paulson into the sector or any of these stocks?
Iwouldfollow Paulson, says Jon Najarian.
I would too, adds Joe Terranova. And you should know he’s heavily into gold.
But you don’t know how guys like Paulson arehedgingthese bets, counters Guy Adami. If you’re going to follow a whale into a trade — make sure you proceed with caution.
If you’re bored with trading in the wake of Warren Buffett, may we suggest another Wall Street whale for your consideration.We’re talking billionaire investor John Paulson. Although this hedge fund giant isn’t as widely known as Warren Buffett-- and he isn’t as rich as Warren Buffett -- heisa figure pro investors watch carefully.
(In case you’re wondering Paulson ranked #78 on the 2008 Forbes list with a net worth of $4.5 billion.)“This is someone themutual fundsare watching. This is someonw who thehedge fundsare watching," says Steve Grasso of Stuart Frankel. "This is the Warren Buffett for the next generation."Isn't he someone you should be watching too?
His big claim to fame was predicting the implosion of mortgage markets in 2007 and the collapse of banks and other financial companies in 2008. In fact, he made a lot of money when everyone else lost their shirts.
Since then, Pualson's every move has been monitored closely by big investors with the pros always especially eager to see how he trades the banking sector.
And we see no reason why the pros should know something that you don't! Following you'll find Paulson's largest bank sector holdings, according to his latest 13F filing.
John Paulson Investments in Financials: - 2% Stake in Citigroup*
- 168 million shares of Bank of America
- 2 million shares of Goldman Sachs
- 2 million Shares of UltraShort Financials ProShares
* Paulson’s 2% stake in Citi was reported by the NYPost
Should you follow Paulson into the sector or any of these stocks?
Iwouldfollow Paulson, says Jon Najarian.
I would too, adds Joe Terranova. And you should know he’s heavily into gold.
But you don’t know how guys like Paulson arehedgingthese bets, counters Guy Adami. If you’re going to follow a whale into a trade — make sure you proceed with caution.
Biggs Says World Stocks Will Gain as Economies Grow
(Bloomberg) -- The six-month rally in global stocks isn’t over yet, with emerging markets poised to lead the world higher, investor Barton Biggs said. Financial conditions are the best since before the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., said Biggs, who runs New York- based hedge fund Traxis Partners LP. Chinese shares traded in Hong Kong are cheap compared with earnings, he said.
The MSCI World Index has climbed 59 percent since a 13-year low on March 9 on signs economies are recovering from the first global recession since World War II. The Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index, which tracks how far bonds, stocks and options prices stray from their mean levels, reached its best level since Oct. 31, 2007, on Aug. 7.
“The U.S. economy and world economy are clearly emerging from the recession,” Biggs, the chief global strategist for Morgan Stanley until 2003, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “The pace of acceleration is not totally clear yet, but I suspect it will be better than the consensus expects.”
The retreat this month in the Shanghai Composite Index of China’s yuan-denominated ‘A’ shares “does look like a healthy correction to me rather than the end of a big move,” Biggs said. The measure soared 91 percent this year to a 15-month high on Aug. 4 before paring its advance by 18 percent.
‘H’ Shares
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, a gauge of Chinese “H” shares trading in Hong Kong, climbed 19 percent through July 28 after Biggs recommended investing in the companies on May 29. That’s almost three times the advance in the S&P 500. They then retreated 8 percent. Companies in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index trade for 19.3 times the operating earnings of its companies from the past year, 37 percent cheaper than those in the Shanghai Composite Index.
In a Nov. 6 interview, Biggs said the S&P 500 had probably reached its bear market low and estimated it would rally 15 percent to 1,100. The index tumbled 21 percent in the following two weeks to an 11-year low. On Feb. 18, with the measure down 13 percent for the year, Biggs said stocks were poised to rise. While the index dropped 14 percent in the following two weeks, his comments presaged a 40 percent rise from March 9 through June 12, the steepest since the 1930s.
The MSCI World Index has climbed 59 percent since a 13-year low on March 9 on signs economies are recovering from the first global recession since World War II. The Bloomberg U.S. Financial Conditions Index, which tracks how far bonds, stocks and options prices stray from their mean levels, reached its best level since Oct. 31, 2007, on Aug. 7.
“The U.S. economy and world economy are clearly emerging from the recession,” Biggs, the chief global strategist for Morgan Stanley until 2003, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “The pace of acceleration is not totally clear yet, but I suspect it will be better than the consensus expects.”
The retreat this month in the Shanghai Composite Index of China’s yuan-denominated ‘A’ shares “does look like a healthy correction to me rather than the end of a big move,” Biggs said. The measure soared 91 percent this year to a 15-month high on Aug. 4 before paring its advance by 18 percent.
‘H’ Shares
The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, a gauge of Chinese “H” shares trading in Hong Kong, climbed 19 percent through July 28 after Biggs recommended investing in the companies on May 29. That’s almost three times the advance in the S&P 500. They then retreated 8 percent. Companies in the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index trade for 19.3 times the operating earnings of its companies from the past year, 37 percent cheaper than those in the Shanghai Composite Index.
In a Nov. 6 interview, Biggs said the S&P 500 had probably reached its bear market low and estimated it would rally 15 percent to 1,100. The index tumbled 21 percent in the following two weeks to an 11-year low. On Feb. 18, with the measure down 13 percent for the year, Biggs said stocks were poised to rise. While the index dropped 14 percent in the following two weeks, his comments presaged a 40 percent rise from March 9 through June 12, the steepest since the 1930s.
Gold May Rise From ‘Doldrums’ on Increased Demand, Survey Shows
(Bloomberg) -- Gold may advance from “summer doldrums” in the Northern Hemisphere as investors seek an alternative to a weakening dollar, a survey showed. Eleven of 25 traders, investors and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 44 percent, said bullion would rise next week. Nine forecast lower prices and five were neutral. Gold for delivery in December fell 0.7 percent this week to $947.70 an ounce by 12:01 p.m. yesterday in New York.
“The ‘green shoots’ sentiment will continue to be the main driver in all markets, boosting risk appetite which softens the dollar,” Jim Pogoda, an investor in Summit, New Jersey, and a former precious-metals trader for Mitsubishi International Corp., said in an e-mail. “When the focus has been on signs of stability and economic optimism, gold has gained along with other industrial commodities.”
Reports yesterday showed the U.S. economy contracted less than economists forecast for the second quarter, while fewer Americans filed claims for jobless benefits last week, adding to signs that the economy is pulling out of the worst recession since the 1930s. The U.S. Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback’s value, has fallen 3.3 percent this year as gold futures have climbed 7 percent. “It seems like the summer doldrums the past week,” Pogoda said, referring to gold’s trading range this week, which is “mirroring the relative calm in equities and the dollar.”
The weekly gold survey has forecast prices accurately in 159 of 276 weeks, or 58 percent of the time. This week’s survey results: Bullish: 11 Bearish: 9 Neutral: 5
“The ‘green shoots’ sentiment will continue to be the main driver in all markets, boosting risk appetite which softens the dollar,” Jim Pogoda, an investor in Summit, New Jersey, and a former precious-metals trader for Mitsubishi International Corp., said in an e-mail. “When the focus has been on signs of stability and economic optimism, gold has gained along with other industrial commodities.”
Reports yesterday showed the U.S. economy contracted less than economists forecast for the second quarter, while fewer Americans filed claims for jobless benefits last week, adding to signs that the economy is pulling out of the worst recession since the 1930s. The U.S. Dollar Index, a six-currency gauge of the greenback’s value, has fallen 3.3 percent this year as gold futures have climbed 7 percent. “It seems like the summer doldrums the past week,” Pogoda said, referring to gold’s trading range this week, which is “mirroring the relative calm in equities and the dollar.”
The weekly gold survey has forecast prices accurately in 159 of 276 weeks, or 58 percent of the time. This week’s survey results: Bullish: 11 Bearish: 9 Neutral: 5
Friday, August 28, 2009
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Fri Aug 28 09 06:44 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's retreat from 75.0 was contained at 69.83 and recovered. With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, such retreat should have completed and intraday bias is flipped back to the upside. Further rise should be seen to 75.0 and then long term fibonacci resistance at 76.77 (38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2). On the downside, below 69.83 will bring fall resumption. Also, consider that 75.0 was close to an important long term fibonacci resistance at 76.77 and some loss of momentum seen in 4 hours MACD, break of trend line support (now at 67.53) will suggest that rise from 58.32 has completed and turn focus to 65.23 support for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Hence, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally. On the downside, break of 65.23 support will now be an important signal that crude oil has already topped out and will turn focus back to 58.32 key support for confirmation.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil's retreat from 75.0 was contained at 69.83 and recovered. With 4 hours MACD crossed above signal line, such retreat should have completed and intraday bias is flipped back to the upside. Further rise should be seen to 75.0 and then long term fibonacci resistance at 76.77 (38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2). On the downside, below 69.83 will bring fall resumption. Also, consider that 75.0 was close to an important long term fibonacci resistance at 76.77 and some loss of momentum seen in 4 hours MACD, break of trend line support (now at 67.53) will suggest that rise from 58.32 has completed and turn focus to 65.23 support for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Hence, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally. On the downside, break of 65.23 support will now be an important signal that crude oil has already topped out and will turn focus back to 58.32 key support for confirmation.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Fri Aug 28 09 06:45 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Short term outlook in Gold remains rather mixed for the moment as it's still bounded in choppy sideway trading. On the upside, above 959.9 will affirm the case that rise from 904.8 is resuming for a test on 974.3 first. On the downside, below 931.3 will indicate that fall from 974.3 is still in progress and has resumed for a test of 904.8 support.
In the bigger picture, price actions in gold remains choppily bounded in converging range between 865 and 1007.7. Where there are some possible developments inside such range, there is no change in the preferred view that it's merely consolidation to larger rise from 681, and should be near to completion. On the downside, in case of another fall, strong support should be seen at 904.8 support level and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. On the upside, break of 974.3 resistance will serve as the first alert that rise from 681 is resuming and will turn focus to 1007.7 key resistance level for confirmation.
Comex Gold (GC)
Short term outlook in Gold remains rather mixed for the moment as it's still bounded in choppy sideway trading. On the upside, above 959.9 will affirm the case that rise from 904.8 is resuming for a test on 974.3 first. On the downside, below 931.3 will indicate that fall from 974.3 is still in progress and has resumed for a test of 904.8 support.
In the bigger picture, price actions in gold remains choppily bounded in converging range between 865 and 1007.7. Where there are some possible developments inside such range, there is no change in the preferred view that it's merely consolidation to larger rise from 681, and should be near to completion. On the downside, in case of another fall, strong support should be seen at 904.8 support level and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. On the upside, break of 974.3 resistance will serve as the first alert that rise from 681 is resuming and will turn focus to 1007.7 key resistance level for confirmation.
Stock Market Rally, Is There A Cloud In The Silver Lining?
By: Charles_Maley
Stock-Markets
My brother Jim has been trading the markets for over thirty years. Yesterday, we got involved in a conversation about the markets and the stock market in particular. He always does a good amount of research to support his own trading decisions and since sharing observations is one of the reasons I started this blog, I thought we should at least be aware of these points.
According to Jims work:
* The Market PE is historically overvalued. The Current PE is @ 17 on the S&P.
* The Stock Market is overbought when measured by the number of stocks above their 50 day moving average lines.
* Bullish Sentiment is high. The Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) hit 89%. This reading is the same as the Oct 2007 high.
* Investors Intelligence, AAII registered 19% bears. This is the same reading as the time high reading.
* The trading volume is poor. There is less volume on each push up.
* Insiders are selling at 28 times the amount they are buying.
* September is traditionally a tough seasonal month. 17 out of the last 20 years have been down.
* Markets have rallied up over 50% off the bottom in 5 months. This is the farthest and fastest in history.
* The NASDAQ 100 has retraced over 50% of the decline off the all time highs.
* The SP has retraced 40% of the decline.
* The Aug 24th high was not confirmed by the 24 day RSI and MACD reading creating a divergence.
* The Shanghai index has dropped over 20% from the highs. This market bottomed before our markets and led the U.S rally up.
* 25% of NYSE volume recently has been FNMA, Freddy Mac, and Citicorp, all low price stocks that the public buys. (speculation)
* The volatility Index (VIX) hit a new low on 8/25 confirming the bullish sentiment readings. This is a signal of NO fear in the markets.
* There was no bullish reaction to the Bernanke nomination and other improved economic news. Perhaps the tone is changing.
Charles Maley
www.viewpointsofacommoditytrader.com
Stock-Markets
My brother Jim has been trading the markets for over thirty years. Yesterday, we got involved in a conversation about the markets and the stock market in particular. He always does a good amount of research to support his own trading decisions and since sharing observations is one of the reasons I started this blog, I thought we should at least be aware of these points.
According to Jims work:
* The Market PE is historically overvalued. The Current PE is @ 17 on the S&P.
* The Stock Market is overbought when measured by the number of stocks above their 50 day moving average lines.
* Bullish Sentiment is high. The Daily Sentiment Index (DSI) hit 89%. This reading is the same as the Oct 2007 high.
* Investors Intelligence, AAII registered 19% bears. This is the same reading as the time high reading.
* The trading volume is poor. There is less volume on each push up.
* Insiders are selling at 28 times the amount they are buying.
* September is traditionally a tough seasonal month. 17 out of the last 20 years have been down.
* Markets have rallied up over 50% off the bottom in 5 months. This is the farthest and fastest in history.
* The NASDAQ 100 has retraced over 50% of the decline off the all time highs.
* The SP has retraced 40% of the decline.
* The Aug 24th high was not confirmed by the 24 day RSI and MACD reading creating a divergence.
* The Shanghai index has dropped over 20% from the highs. This market bottomed before our markets and led the U.S rally up.
* 25% of NYSE volume recently has been FNMA, Freddy Mac, and Citicorp, all low price stocks that the public buys. (speculation)
* The volatility Index (VIX) hit a new low on 8/25 confirming the bullish sentiment readings. This is a signal of NO fear in the markets.
* There was no bullish reaction to the Bernanke nomination and other improved economic news. Perhaps the tone is changing.
Charles Maley
www.viewpointsofacommoditytrader.com
Market Tips: Long on Stocks, Gold; Upbeat on Bonds
By: CNBC.com
Global stocks rose on Friday as confidence in a sustainable recovery grew. Experts tell CNBC to go long on recovery-focused stocks while shorting stocks which are prone to volatility because of news flow.
Buy Stocks for 2010
Investors should buy stocks for a 2010 recovery, not 2011, advises Matthew Kidman, portfolio manager at Wilson Asset Management.
Long America, Short China
Go long on the U.S. markets, but short China, says Jesper Koll, president & CEO at Tantallon Research Japan.
Valuations Will Come Down
The U.S. consumer will spend less and save more, and that will have an impact on stock prices, says Michael Yoshikami, founder, president, and chief investment strategist at YCMNET Advisors.
Short Forex & Equities
Expect equity and forex markets to gain in the short-term, says Robert Rennie currency strategist at Westpac Bank.
Dollar Soggy for Next 6-9 Months
Richard Grace, chief currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, says short-term depreciating forces such as deflation and a poor sovereign outlook will weigh on the dollar but it will start to rise when the Fed raises rates, likely in the second half of 2010.
Positive on Asian Bond Markets
Pieter Van Der Schaft, head of Asian local rates strategy at HSBC is positive on the Asian bond markets. He discloses his top picks within this space.
Include Commodities in Your Portfolio
Investors should include commodities and fixed income into their portfolios, says Michael Yoshikami, founder, president, and chief investment strategist at YCMNET Advisors.
Long, Not Short on Gold
Buy gold in the long-term, not short term, says Ben Clark, private client advisor at TMS Capital.
Palm Oil Prices to Climb
Palm oil prices are set to climb, says Nirgunan Tiruchelvam, equities analyst at RBS.
Global stocks rose on Friday as confidence in a sustainable recovery grew. Experts tell CNBC to go long on recovery-focused stocks while shorting stocks which are prone to volatility because of news flow.
Buy Stocks for 2010
Investors should buy stocks for a 2010 recovery, not 2011, advises Matthew Kidman, portfolio manager at Wilson Asset Management.
Long America, Short China
Go long on the U.S. markets, but short China, says Jesper Koll, president & CEO at Tantallon Research Japan.
Valuations Will Come Down
The U.S. consumer will spend less and save more, and that will have an impact on stock prices, says Michael Yoshikami, founder, president, and chief investment strategist at YCMNET Advisors.
Short Forex & Equities
Expect equity and forex markets to gain in the short-term, says Robert Rennie currency strategist at Westpac Bank.
Dollar Soggy for Next 6-9 Months
Richard Grace, chief currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia, says short-term depreciating forces such as deflation and a poor sovereign outlook will weigh on the dollar but it will start to rise when the Fed raises rates, likely in the second half of 2010.
Positive on Asian Bond Markets
Pieter Van Der Schaft, head of Asian local rates strategy at HSBC is positive on the Asian bond markets. He discloses his top picks within this space.
Include Commodities in Your Portfolio
Investors should include commodities and fixed income into their portfolios, says Michael Yoshikami, founder, president, and chief investment strategist at YCMNET Advisors.
Long, Not Short on Gold
Buy gold in the long-term, not short term, says Ben Clark, private client advisor at TMS Capital.
Palm Oil Prices to Climb
Palm oil prices are set to climb, says Nirgunan Tiruchelvam, equities analyst at RBS.
China Stocks Cheapest to Analyst Targets After Slump
(Bloomberg) -- Chinese stocks are trading at the steepest discount in the world compared with analysts’ price targets after this month’s 16 percent slump in the nation’s benchmark stock index. Companies in China’s Shanghai Composite Index trade 13 percent below analysts’ combined price targets, the biggest gap among the world’s 10 largest markets, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The gauge rose 5.8 percent in the past six days even as Premier Wen Jiabao said the economic recovery isn’t stable yet, China Construction Bank Corp.’s chairman warned of asset bubbles and policy makers advised industries such as steel and cement to curb overcapacity. Robeco Hong Kong Ltd.’s Victoria Mio bought Chinese shares that were “punished unreasonably” during the sell-off. Barton Biggs of Traxis Partners LP said the market is poised to rally because policy makers will keep economic stimulus measures in place. Morgan Stanley predicted stocks may jump 36 percent in 12 months as profits climb faster than in the rest of the world.
“The market has overreacted,” said Mio, a senior portfolio manager at Robeco, which managed $158 billion worldwide as of December. “The recent decline is very healthy. It drives away speculators.” The Shanghai Composite fell 2.9 percent to 2,860.69 at the close. The measure also dropped for a fourth week.This month’s slump stopped a rally that had sent the Shanghai Composite up 103 percent from a November low on prospects the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus program and a record amount of new loans will ensure the economy grows at least 8 percent this year.
Bullish on ICBC
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has climbed 51 percent from a 12-year low in March. Companies in the U.S. equity benchmark are trading 6 percent below analysts’ target prices on average, Bloomberg data show. The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index in India, the second-largest emerging market after China, has jumped 93 percent from its March low and its companies are priced 2.6 percent above analysts’ targets, the data show. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world’s largest by market value, is trading 33 percent below the average price target of analysts. The Beijing-based lender posted higher-than-estimated second-quarter profit and has a “buy” rating from 25 of 30 analysts tracked by Bloomberg. The shares slipped 0.6 percent yesterday, while the Shanghai Composite lost 0.7 percent to 2,946.40.
Shanghai-based Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., China’s largest steelmaker, may jump 32 percent, according to the average of 15 price targets. New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which raised its forecast this month, expects the shares to more than double.
‘Significantly Higher’
China Railway Construction Corp., the builder of more than half the nation’s railroads, is trading 31 percent below analysts’ target price. Per-share earnings for the Beijing-based company may rise 47 percent this year and 34 percent in 2010, according to analysts’ projections.China’s stock market is “going to go significantly higher,” said Biggs, who runs Traxis, a New York-based investment firm. “We’ve seen the worst.”Industrial & Commercial Bank, Baoshan Iron & Steel and China Railway Construction dropped at least 12 percent this month as concern deepened China’s government will restrict investment and new loans, slowing the pace of an economic recovery and forcing speculators who borrowed money to buy shares to exit the market. Mainland investors opened about 11.3 million new stock trading accounts this year, up 6 percent from the same period in 2008, according to data from the nation’s clearing house.
World-Beating Rally
Chinese banks, which extended a record 7.4 trillion yuan of new loans in the first half of 2009, reduced credit growth to the lowest level in nine months in July, according to the People’s Bank of China. The government plans to tighten capital requirements for financial institutions, three people familiar with the matter said last week.“They just want to turn that credit tap off which many policy makers blame for this blowout in equity valuations,” Stephen Green, head of China research at Standard Chartered Bank in Shanghai, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.
While banks can provide 300 billion yuan to 400 billion yuan of new loans a month, that “may not be enough for the market to be reassured that’s enough to keep pushing prices higher,” Green said.The Shanghai Composite’s gain since Nov. 4, the biggest among world equity benchmarks, sent its valuation to 31 times reported earnings over the past 12 months, according to Bloomberg data. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, a 22-country benchmark, trades for 18 times profit.
‘Over-Heated’
Stocks in China and Asia’s emerging markets climbed too far, too fast given forecasts for a weak global economic recovery, according to Bank Julius Baer & Co.’s Christian Gattiker. The chance of a double-dip recession is increasing because of risks related to ending global monetary and fiscal stimulus, Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis, said this week. “The whole thing is a bit over-heated,” said Gattiker, the head of research and strategy at Bank Julius Baer, which oversees about $131 billion and has been reducing holdings in Asian developing nations to buy in markets including Japan that lagged a global rally in stocks this year.Guo Shuqing, chairman of China Construction Bank, said this week that excess cash in the banking system has led to bubbles in capital markets. The Beijing-based bank is China’s second- largest lender.
Wen’s Warning
The government will maintain its fiscal and monetary policies because the economy faces many “uncertainties,” Premier Wen said this week, according to a statement published on the government’s Web site. Prospects of a delayed tightening in banks’ reserve-requirement ratios, loan quotas and the benchmark lending rate will help stocks rally, said Jonathan Garner, the London-based chief Asian and emerging-market strategist at Morgan Stanley.
The People’s Bank of China raised its reserve-requirement ratio for lenders seven times in 2007 before the Shanghai Composite peaked in October of that year. The central bank scrapped lending quotas in November 2008 and has kept interest rates at a four-year low of 5.31 percent.“We don’t think policy is going to meaningfully tighten from here on, probably until the summer of 2010,” Garner said. Jerry Lou, his colleague in Hong Kong, predicts the Shanghai Composite will climb to 4,000 in the next 12 months.
Profit Growth
The index still trades for two-thirds the price-to-earnings ratio of 52 at its peak in October 2007, and profits are growing faster than developing nations as a group. Morgan Stanley estimates that earnings in China will gain 15 percent this year and 20 percent in 2010, compared with a 15 percent drop for MSCI’s emerging-market index. Companies in the S&P 500 may report a 14 percent decline in profits this year, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.Traxis’s Biggs said the global economy is rebounding and that Chinese exporters will get a boost from recovering demand in the U.S. and Europe, China’s two biggest customers. The U.S. recession ended in June because of the government’s economic stimulus and a rebuilding of inventories by businesses, according to Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs. German services and French manufacturing unexpectedly expanded in August, reports showed last week.
Export Markets
“The U.S. and Europe are huge export markets for Asia,” Biggs said in an interview. “What happens in those economies is important.”China stock funds received $480 million in the week to Aug. 26, recovering from their worst week since the first quarter of 2008, as investors projected higher exports to developed markets, EPFR said in an e-mail.Leuthold Weeden Capital Management, which invests in China through Hong Kong-listed shares, mutual funds and exchange- traded funds, has a record 11 percent of its core and asset allocation portfolios in China securities after increasing holdings in June. The firm has no plans to reduce its investment in China after the market’s retreat, said Eric Bjorgen, who helps oversee about $3.6 billion as a money manager at Minneapolis-based Leuthold.
“We see a major opportunity there and it’s one that we expect will outperform over the intermediate and longer term,” said Bjorgen. “We’re in bullish mode.”
“The market has overreacted,” said Mio, a senior portfolio manager at Robeco, which managed $158 billion worldwide as of December. “The recent decline is very healthy. It drives away speculators.” The Shanghai Composite fell 2.9 percent to 2,860.69 at the close. The measure also dropped for a fourth week.This month’s slump stopped a rally that had sent the Shanghai Composite up 103 percent from a November low on prospects the government’s 4 trillion yuan ($586 billion) stimulus program and a record amount of new loans will ensure the economy grows at least 8 percent this year.
Bullish on ICBC
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has climbed 51 percent from a 12-year low in March. Companies in the U.S. equity benchmark are trading 6 percent below analysts’ target prices on average, Bloomberg data show. The Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index in India, the second-largest emerging market after China, has jumped 93 percent from its March low and its companies are priced 2.6 percent above analysts’ targets, the data show. Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world’s largest by market value, is trading 33 percent below the average price target of analysts. The Beijing-based lender posted higher-than-estimated second-quarter profit and has a “buy” rating from 25 of 30 analysts tracked by Bloomberg. The shares slipped 0.6 percent yesterday, while the Shanghai Composite lost 0.7 percent to 2,946.40.
Shanghai-based Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., China’s largest steelmaker, may jump 32 percent, according to the average of 15 price targets. New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which raised its forecast this month, expects the shares to more than double.
‘Significantly Higher’
China Railway Construction Corp., the builder of more than half the nation’s railroads, is trading 31 percent below analysts’ target price. Per-share earnings for the Beijing-based company may rise 47 percent this year and 34 percent in 2010, according to analysts’ projections.China’s stock market is “going to go significantly higher,” said Biggs, who runs Traxis, a New York-based investment firm. “We’ve seen the worst.”Industrial & Commercial Bank, Baoshan Iron & Steel and China Railway Construction dropped at least 12 percent this month as concern deepened China’s government will restrict investment and new loans, slowing the pace of an economic recovery and forcing speculators who borrowed money to buy shares to exit the market. Mainland investors opened about 11.3 million new stock trading accounts this year, up 6 percent from the same period in 2008, according to data from the nation’s clearing house.
World-Beating Rally
Chinese banks, which extended a record 7.4 trillion yuan of new loans in the first half of 2009, reduced credit growth to the lowest level in nine months in July, according to the People’s Bank of China. The government plans to tighten capital requirements for financial institutions, three people familiar with the matter said last week.“They just want to turn that credit tap off which many policy makers blame for this blowout in equity valuations,” Stephen Green, head of China research at Standard Chartered Bank in Shanghai, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television.
While banks can provide 300 billion yuan to 400 billion yuan of new loans a month, that “may not be enough for the market to be reassured that’s enough to keep pushing prices higher,” Green said.The Shanghai Composite’s gain since Nov. 4, the biggest among world equity benchmarks, sent its valuation to 31 times reported earnings over the past 12 months, according to Bloomberg data. The MSCI Emerging Markets Index, a 22-country benchmark, trades for 18 times profit.
‘Over-Heated’
Stocks in China and Asia’s emerging markets climbed too far, too fast given forecasts for a weak global economic recovery, according to Bank Julius Baer & Co.’s Christian Gattiker. The chance of a double-dip recession is increasing because of risks related to ending global monetary and fiscal stimulus, Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor who predicted the financial crisis, said this week. “The whole thing is a bit over-heated,” said Gattiker, the head of research and strategy at Bank Julius Baer, which oversees about $131 billion and has been reducing holdings in Asian developing nations to buy in markets including Japan that lagged a global rally in stocks this year.Guo Shuqing, chairman of China Construction Bank, said this week that excess cash in the banking system has led to bubbles in capital markets. The Beijing-based bank is China’s second- largest lender.
Wen’s Warning
The government will maintain its fiscal and monetary policies because the economy faces many “uncertainties,” Premier Wen said this week, according to a statement published on the government’s Web site. Prospects of a delayed tightening in banks’ reserve-requirement ratios, loan quotas and the benchmark lending rate will help stocks rally, said Jonathan Garner, the London-based chief Asian and emerging-market strategist at Morgan Stanley.
The People’s Bank of China raised its reserve-requirement ratio for lenders seven times in 2007 before the Shanghai Composite peaked in October of that year. The central bank scrapped lending quotas in November 2008 and has kept interest rates at a four-year low of 5.31 percent.“We don’t think policy is going to meaningfully tighten from here on, probably until the summer of 2010,” Garner said. Jerry Lou, his colleague in Hong Kong, predicts the Shanghai Composite will climb to 4,000 in the next 12 months.
Profit Growth
The index still trades for two-thirds the price-to-earnings ratio of 52 at its peak in October 2007, and profits are growing faster than developing nations as a group. Morgan Stanley estimates that earnings in China will gain 15 percent this year and 20 percent in 2010, compared with a 15 percent drop for MSCI’s emerging-market index. Companies in the S&P 500 may report a 14 percent decline in profits this year, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Bloomberg.Traxis’s Biggs said the global economy is rebounding and that Chinese exporters will get a boost from recovering demand in the U.S. and Europe, China’s two biggest customers. The U.S. recession ended in June because of the government’s economic stimulus and a rebuilding of inventories by businesses, according to Jan Hatzius, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs. German services and French manufacturing unexpectedly expanded in August, reports showed last week.
Export Markets
“The U.S. and Europe are huge export markets for Asia,” Biggs said in an interview. “What happens in those economies is important.”China stock funds received $480 million in the week to Aug. 26, recovering from their worst week since the first quarter of 2008, as investors projected higher exports to developed markets, EPFR said in an e-mail.Leuthold Weeden Capital Management, which invests in China through Hong Kong-listed shares, mutual funds and exchange- traded funds, has a record 11 percent of its core and asset allocation portfolios in China securities after increasing holdings in June. The firm has no plans to reduce its investment in China after the market’s retreat, said Eric Bjorgen, who helps oversee about $3.6 billion as a money manager at Minneapolis-based Leuthold.
“We see a major opportunity there and it’s one that we expect will outperform over the intermediate and longer term,” said Bjorgen. “We’re in bullish mode.”
Emerging-Market Funds Inflows on Growth, EPFR Says
(Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market equity funds received net inflows in the week to Aug. 26, rebounding from the biggest outflows in 2009, on optimism improving economic conditions in France, Germany and the U.S. will bolster exports. Investors put a net $168 million into funds for Asia excluding Japan, after pulling out $810 million the previous week, according to EPFR Global. China stock funds received a separate $480 million in the period, recovering from their worst week since the first quarter of 2008, as investors projected higher exports to developed markets, EPFR said.
The German and French economies both expanded 0.3 percent in the three months through June, unexpectedly returning to growth, and purchases of new homes in the U.S. jumped more than forecast in July. China’s Shanghai Composite Index has declined 14 percent this month, the biggest drop among 89 major stock gauges tracked by Bloomberg, on concerns government measures to curb bank lending will derail economic growth.The recovery in the German and French economies and U.S. home sales “allowed hope for exporters to offset lingering doubts about the durability of recent Chinese economic growth,” the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based research company said in an e-mail.
Taiwan, Indonesia
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has rallied 50 percent this year, more than double the 21 percent gain for the MSCI All- Country World Index.Taiwan equity funds had their biggest weekly outflow this year, signaling fading optimism Taiwan can turn its improved relations with China into economic growth, according to the statement. Indonesian stock funds saw inflows of investor funds for an eighth straight week after President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono won a second term in office.Taiwan’s Taiex index has retreated 6.3 percent since its July 28 high this year, while the Jakarta Composite Index fell 1.8 percent from the Aug. 11 peak. The Indonesian benchmark measure’s 74 percent gain this year makes it the world’s third- best performer among 89 gauges tracked by Bloomberg.
The German and French economies both expanded 0.3 percent in the three months through June, unexpectedly returning to growth, and purchases of new homes in the U.S. jumped more than forecast in July. China’s Shanghai Composite Index has declined 14 percent this month, the biggest drop among 89 major stock gauges tracked by Bloomberg, on concerns government measures to curb bank lending will derail economic growth.The recovery in the German and French economies and U.S. home sales “allowed hope for exporters to offset lingering doubts about the durability of recent Chinese economic growth,” the Cambridge, Massachusetts-based research company said in an e-mail.
Taiwan, Indonesia
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has rallied 50 percent this year, more than double the 21 percent gain for the MSCI All- Country World Index.Taiwan equity funds had their biggest weekly outflow this year, signaling fading optimism Taiwan can turn its improved relations with China into economic growth, according to the statement. Indonesian stock funds saw inflows of investor funds for an eighth straight week after President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono won a second term in office.Taiwan’s Taiex index has retreated 6.3 percent since its July 28 high this year, while the Jakarta Composite Index fell 1.8 percent from the Aug. 11 peak. The Indonesian benchmark measure’s 74 percent gain this year makes it the world’s third- best performer among 89 gauges tracked by Bloomberg.
Shanghai Stock Index Rally Due, DMG Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- China’s Shanghai Composite Index may resume its rally through the next two weeks before encountering a so-called resistance level at 3,150, according to an Elliot Wave analysis by DMG & Partners Securities Pte. The benchmark stock index peaked at 3,478 during trade on Aug. 4, then began a two-week decline before the gauge found “buying support” at 2,761, the intra-day low on Aug. 19, the brokerage said. That correction completed the fourth part of the five-phase Elliot Wave cycle, DMG said. The gauge last traded at 2,946.40.“The 2,761 support won’t be violated,” James Lim, a Singapore-based analyst at DMG & Partners, said in a telephone interview yesterday. “This rally is now at wave five, which could last for another two weeks before it touches the immediate resistance at 3,150.”
The Elliot Wave principle is based on a theory developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression. He concluded that market swings, or waves, follow a predictable, five-stage structure of three steps forward, two steps back.
In addition, the waves share a variety of features: Wave two never falls below the starting level of wave one; wave three is never the shortest; waves one and five tend to be of equal length; and wave sizes are often related by a series of numbers known as the Fibonacci sequence, wherein each number is based on the sum of the two previous ones.Lim wrote in an Aug. 11 report that the formation of a “double top” -- made up of two consecutive peaks that are approximately equal with a moderate trough between them -- signaled losses for the Shanghai Composite Index. The measure has fallen 9.8 percent since then.The Chinese gauge is the worst performing index so far in August among 89 benchmarks tracked globally by Bloomberg.
The Elliot Wave principle is based on a theory developed by accountant Ralph Nelson Elliott during the Great Depression. He concluded that market swings, or waves, follow a predictable, five-stage structure of three steps forward, two steps back.
In addition, the waves share a variety of features: Wave two never falls below the starting level of wave one; wave three is never the shortest; waves one and five tend to be of equal length; and wave sizes are often related by a series of numbers known as the Fibonacci sequence, wherein each number is based on the sum of the two previous ones.Lim wrote in an Aug. 11 report that the formation of a “double top” -- made up of two consecutive peaks that are approximately equal with a moderate trough between them -- signaled losses for the Shanghai Composite Index. The measure has fallen 9.8 percent since then.The Chinese gauge is the worst performing index so far in August among 89 benchmarks tracked globally by Bloomberg.
Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Emiten 28-08-2009
Research Merrill Lynch Sec: Buy PGAS target Rp 4,000
Research Kim Eng Sec: Hold BUMI target Rp 2,800
Research Merrill Lynch: Buy INCO target Rp 6,500
Ciputra Property Ekspansi
HARGA saham PT Ciputra Property Tbk (CTRP) berpeluang menembus level Rp 500 dalam waktu dekat. Sumber Investor Daily mengatakan, perseroan dikabarkan akan menjalin kerja sama dengan investor asing untuk ekspansi ke India dan Tiongkok. Selain itu, kata dia, rencana akuisisi lahan di Kuningan untuk mengembangkan megaproyek Ciputra World Jakarta senilai Rp 7 triliun juga bakal berdampak positif. Pada perdagangan kemarin, CTRP ditutup stagnan di posisi Rp 370.
Asing Minati Saham Modernland
SEJUMLAH fund asing dikabarkan sedang memburu saham PT Modernland Realty Tbk (MDLN). Menurut sumber Investor Daily, perseroan akan mengembangkan usahanya dengan mengerjakan proyek tol di Modern Hill dan peluncuran Modern Park yang terdiri atas 19 menara. Selain itu, rencana akuisisi lahan di Jakarta untuk mengembangkan proyek hunian maupun superblok di Ibukota juga bakal memicu penguatan harga MDLN ke level Rp 250. Pada perdagangan kemarin, MDLN ditutup naik Rp 6 (3,53%) ke level Rp 176.
IHSG dibuka menguat ke 12,05 poin ke level tertinggi 2,368.98 di awal sesi perdagangan, kendati regional melemah: indeks Hang Seng melemah 161.50 di 20,080.95, Shanghai -83.437 poin di 2,863.320 berkat jatuhnya saham perbankan China, Nikkei +56.65 di 10,530.68, Kospi +4.34 poin di 1,604.37. Data GDP Q2 AS tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan (-1.0%), Jobless Claims merosot ke +570K, earning Dell Computer lebih baik dari perkiraan. Menanti data personal spending & income AS, University of Michigan sentiment AS malam ini.
Harga Minyak Mentah Gebuk Bursa Asia
Indeks saham agaknya tergelincir harga minyak yang terus menurun dalam beberapa hari terakhir. Harga minyak menguat ke $ 73.03/barel di sesi Asia.
Mata uang rupiah melemah ke Rp 10,125/dolar menguat Rp 30 di awal sesi Jakarta, mengikuti pelemahan dolar AS terhadap euro ($ 1.4364), yen (Y 93.68), Pound ($ 1.6268), swiss franc ($ 1.0580), aussie ($ 0.8390), Singapore dolar ($ 1.4422), Philipina peso (48.8020), yuan ($ 6.8312).
Inflasi Agustus RI bulan Agustus diprediksi tembus 0.5% MoM ke kisaran 0.59%-0.8% MoM dengan tingkat inflasi tahunan di 2.54%-2.78% YoY.
DOID, Bintang Baru Lantai Bursa
Beberapa bulan lalu, tak ada yang menyangka kalau saham tidur PT Delta Dunia Petroindo Tbk (DOID) bakal aktif diperdagangkan, malah menjadi salah satu saham paling aktif di lantai bursa. DOID telah menjadi bintang baru yang menjadi sorotan investor. Pada awal Mei 2009, harga saham DOID masih berkutat di kisaran Rp 500 per saham. Kini, hanya dalam kurun waktu 3 bulan saham DOID telah menyentuh harga tertingginya sepanjang sejarah perusahaan ini berdiri di Rp 2.100 per saham. JP MOrgan borong saham DOID sebanyak 66 juta saham baru-baru ini.
TRUB Jajaki Tender PLTU 10.000 MW
Jika berhasil memenangkan tender ini, TRUB akan meraih kontrak US$ 80 juta sebagai subkontraktor dalam pemasangan sekaligus perakitan mesin PLTU.
Kenaikan Cukai Rokok Bakal Goyang GGRM
Kenaikan cukai rokok tahun depan akan menggerus margin laba GGRM.
Kreditur Gugat Pailit DUSC
PT Daya Sakti Unggul Corporindo Tbk (DSUC) belum membayar utang ke Ardi Sejatera sebesar Rp 618,81 juta.
Perbankan Ramai-Ramai Terbitkan Obligasi
Analis menilai, pilihan waktu PNBN dan BTPN untuk menjual obligasi saat ini sudah tepat, saat tren penurunan imbal hasil obligasi.
Arutmin Sokong Batubara PLN untuk PLTU Rembang
Anak usaha PT BUMI Resources Tbk, Arutmin bersama PT Titan Mining Energy akan memasok batubara 950.000 ton per tahun ke PLTU ini.
Surya Semesta Akan Jual Aset US$ 45 Juta
PT Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk (SSIA) berencana menjual lahan seluas 37.287 meter persegi senilai US$ 45 juta pada semester ini.
Perdana Karya Tunda Pengoperasian Tambang Batubara
PT Perdana Karya Perkasa Tbk (PKPK) menunda pengoperasian tambang batubara di Marangkayu dan Semoi, Kalimantan Timur, menyusul keterbatasan likuiditas keuangan perseroan.
Apac Citra Lepas Saham Pura Golden
PT Apac Citra Centertex Tbk (MYTX) menjual seluruh saham perseroan di PT Pura Golden Lion (PGL) kepada Lenzing AG. Saham Apac mencakup 40% dari seluruh saham yang telah ditempatkan dan disetor penuh di PT Pura Golden Lion senilai US$ 700 ribu.
Bisi di Tengah Terpaan El Nino
El Nino, bagi sebagian kalangan, adalah petaka. Tapi PT Bisi International Tbk menganggapnya sebagai berkah. Maklum, gara-gara El Nino, penjualan Bisi bakal terkerek naik. Cuma, tahun ini, kinerja bisnis emiten bersandi BISI itu sepertinya tak akan secemerlang tahun lalu. Begitu pula dengan harga sahamnya di lantai bursa.
Danareksa Jadi 'Underwriter' IPO BTN dan PP
PT Danareksa (Persero ) pada tahun ini akan menjadi penjamin emisi (underwriter) 4 emiten yang akan melepaskan saham perdana ke lantai bursa (IPO).
Tahan! Saham Indosat di Rp 5.550
Saham Indosat (ISAT) direkomendasikan tahan dengan target harga Rp 5.550 dari penutupan kemarin di Rp 5.250 per saham karena sudah mendekati harga wajar.
BUMI Bisa Koreksi Tipis, ‘Hold’ Saja
Saham PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Jumat (28/8) diprediksi melemah tipis seiring sepinya transaksi jelang keluarnya data inflasi. Pasar juga menunggu laporan keuangan dan kepastian akuisisi Herald di tengah konsolidasi harga komoditas. Hold BUMI!
Laba Timah Diproyeksikan Anjlok 40%
PT Timah Tbk (TINS) memproyeksikan per Juni 2009, laba bersih perseroan menyusut menjadi Rp 660 miliar atau anjlok 40% di banding periode yang sama tahun lalu senilai Rp 1,1 triliun.
Kinerja TINS Loyo
Per Juni 2009, TINS memproyeksikan laba bersih mereka menyusut menjadi Rp 660 miliar atau turun 40% ketimbang setahun lalu.
Rights Issue FREN untuk Buyback Obligasi Rupiah
FREN akan membeli kembali atau buyback sebagian obligasi rupiah terbitan mereka senilai Rp 675 miliar.
Tarif Tol Naik, Tahan Saham JSMR
Kenaikan tarif jalan tol antara 12,7% hingga 18,5% pada 4 September 2009 berpeluang mengerek harga saham PT Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR)
Target Harga SMGR Rp6.800
Target harga Semen Gresik Tbk (SMGR) Rp6.800. Hal ini diperkirakan peningkatan penjualan perseroan sebesar 13,9% pada tahun ini.
Sumber: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Inilah.com, Kontan, Detik.com.
www.strategydesk.co.id
Research Kim Eng Sec: Hold BUMI target Rp 2,800
Research Merrill Lynch: Buy INCO target Rp 6,500
Ciputra Property Ekspansi
HARGA saham PT Ciputra Property Tbk (CTRP) berpeluang menembus level Rp 500 dalam waktu dekat. Sumber Investor Daily mengatakan, perseroan dikabarkan akan menjalin kerja sama dengan investor asing untuk ekspansi ke India dan Tiongkok. Selain itu, kata dia, rencana akuisisi lahan di Kuningan untuk mengembangkan megaproyek Ciputra World Jakarta senilai Rp 7 triliun juga bakal berdampak positif. Pada perdagangan kemarin, CTRP ditutup stagnan di posisi Rp 370.
Asing Minati Saham Modernland
SEJUMLAH fund asing dikabarkan sedang memburu saham PT Modernland Realty Tbk (MDLN). Menurut sumber Investor Daily, perseroan akan mengembangkan usahanya dengan mengerjakan proyek tol di Modern Hill dan peluncuran Modern Park yang terdiri atas 19 menara. Selain itu, rencana akuisisi lahan di Jakarta untuk mengembangkan proyek hunian maupun superblok di Ibukota juga bakal memicu penguatan harga MDLN ke level Rp 250. Pada perdagangan kemarin, MDLN ditutup naik Rp 6 (3,53%) ke level Rp 176.
IHSG dibuka menguat ke 12,05 poin ke level tertinggi 2,368.98 di awal sesi perdagangan, kendati regional melemah: indeks Hang Seng melemah 161.50 di 20,080.95, Shanghai -83.437 poin di 2,863.320 berkat jatuhnya saham perbankan China, Nikkei +56.65 di 10,530.68, Kospi +4.34 poin di 1,604.37. Data GDP Q2 AS tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan (-1.0%), Jobless Claims merosot ke +570K, earning Dell Computer lebih baik dari perkiraan. Menanti data personal spending & income AS, University of Michigan sentiment AS malam ini.
Harga Minyak Mentah Gebuk Bursa Asia
Indeks saham agaknya tergelincir harga minyak yang terus menurun dalam beberapa hari terakhir. Harga minyak menguat ke $ 73.03/barel di sesi Asia.
Mata uang rupiah melemah ke Rp 10,125/dolar menguat Rp 30 di awal sesi Jakarta, mengikuti pelemahan dolar AS terhadap euro ($ 1.4364), yen (Y 93.68), Pound ($ 1.6268), swiss franc ($ 1.0580), aussie ($ 0.8390), Singapore dolar ($ 1.4422), Philipina peso (48.8020), yuan ($ 6.8312).
Inflasi Agustus RI bulan Agustus diprediksi tembus 0.5% MoM ke kisaran 0.59%-0.8% MoM dengan tingkat inflasi tahunan di 2.54%-2.78% YoY.
DOID, Bintang Baru Lantai Bursa
Beberapa bulan lalu, tak ada yang menyangka kalau saham tidur PT Delta Dunia Petroindo Tbk (DOID) bakal aktif diperdagangkan, malah menjadi salah satu saham paling aktif di lantai bursa. DOID telah menjadi bintang baru yang menjadi sorotan investor. Pada awal Mei 2009, harga saham DOID masih berkutat di kisaran Rp 500 per saham. Kini, hanya dalam kurun waktu 3 bulan saham DOID telah menyentuh harga tertingginya sepanjang sejarah perusahaan ini berdiri di Rp 2.100 per saham. JP MOrgan borong saham DOID sebanyak 66 juta saham baru-baru ini.
TRUB Jajaki Tender PLTU 10.000 MW
Jika berhasil memenangkan tender ini, TRUB akan meraih kontrak US$ 80 juta sebagai subkontraktor dalam pemasangan sekaligus perakitan mesin PLTU.
Kenaikan Cukai Rokok Bakal Goyang GGRM
Kenaikan cukai rokok tahun depan akan menggerus margin laba GGRM.
Kreditur Gugat Pailit DUSC
PT Daya Sakti Unggul Corporindo Tbk (DSUC) belum membayar utang ke Ardi Sejatera sebesar Rp 618,81 juta.
Perbankan Ramai-Ramai Terbitkan Obligasi
Analis menilai, pilihan waktu PNBN dan BTPN untuk menjual obligasi saat ini sudah tepat, saat tren penurunan imbal hasil obligasi.
Arutmin Sokong Batubara PLN untuk PLTU Rembang
Anak usaha PT BUMI Resources Tbk, Arutmin bersama PT Titan Mining Energy akan memasok batubara 950.000 ton per tahun ke PLTU ini.
Surya Semesta Akan Jual Aset US$ 45 Juta
PT Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk (SSIA) berencana menjual lahan seluas 37.287 meter persegi senilai US$ 45 juta pada semester ini.
Perdana Karya Tunda Pengoperasian Tambang Batubara
PT Perdana Karya Perkasa Tbk (PKPK) menunda pengoperasian tambang batubara di Marangkayu dan Semoi, Kalimantan Timur, menyusul keterbatasan likuiditas keuangan perseroan.
Apac Citra Lepas Saham Pura Golden
PT Apac Citra Centertex Tbk (MYTX) menjual seluruh saham perseroan di PT Pura Golden Lion (PGL) kepada Lenzing AG. Saham Apac mencakup 40% dari seluruh saham yang telah ditempatkan dan disetor penuh di PT Pura Golden Lion senilai US$ 700 ribu.
Bisi di Tengah Terpaan El Nino
El Nino, bagi sebagian kalangan, adalah petaka. Tapi PT Bisi International Tbk menganggapnya sebagai berkah. Maklum, gara-gara El Nino, penjualan Bisi bakal terkerek naik. Cuma, tahun ini, kinerja bisnis emiten bersandi BISI itu sepertinya tak akan secemerlang tahun lalu. Begitu pula dengan harga sahamnya di lantai bursa.
Danareksa Jadi 'Underwriter' IPO BTN dan PP
PT Danareksa (Persero ) pada tahun ini akan menjadi penjamin emisi (underwriter) 4 emiten yang akan melepaskan saham perdana ke lantai bursa (IPO).
Tahan! Saham Indosat di Rp 5.550
Saham Indosat (ISAT) direkomendasikan tahan dengan target harga Rp 5.550 dari penutupan kemarin di Rp 5.250 per saham karena sudah mendekati harga wajar.
BUMI Bisa Koreksi Tipis, ‘Hold’ Saja
Saham PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Jumat (28/8) diprediksi melemah tipis seiring sepinya transaksi jelang keluarnya data inflasi. Pasar juga menunggu laporan keuangan dan kepastian akuisisi Herald di tengah konsolidasi harga komoditas. Hold BUMI!
Laba Timah Diproyeksikan Anjlok 40%
PT Timah Tbk (TINS) memproyeksikan per Juni 2009, laba bersih perseroan menyusut menjadi Rp 660 miliar atau anjlok 40% di banding periode yang sama tahun lalu senilai Rp 1,1 triliun.
Kinerja TINS Loyo
Per Juni 2009, TINS memproyeksikan laba bersih mereka menyusut menjadi Rp 660 miliar atau turun 40% ketimbang setahun lalu.
Rights Issue FREN untuk Buyback Obligasi Rupiah
FREN akan membeli kembali atau buyback sebagian obligasi rupiah terbitan mereka senilai Rp 675 miliar.
Tarif Tol Naik, Tahan Saham JSMR
Kenaikan tarif jalan tol antara 12,7% hingga 18,5% pada 4 September 2009 berpeluang mengerek harga saham PT Jasa Marga Tbk (JSMR)
Target Harga SMGR Rp6.800
Target harga Semen Gresik Tbk (SMGR) Rp6.800. Hal ini diperkirakan peningkatan penjualan perseroan sebesar 13,9% pada tahun ini.
Sumber: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Inilah.com, Kontan, Detik.com.
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Potensi Kenaikan IHSG Merupakan Peluang Sell On Rally
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Thursday, August 27, 2009
S&P 500 Approaches 200-Month Moving Average: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- A decline in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index below its 200-month average would probably signal an additional slump of as much as 6.5 percent, according to Chicago-based Technical Analytics Inc.The measure finished at 1,028.12 yesterday. That’s 1.2 percent more than 1,015.58, its average close on the 26th day of the past 200 months, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Falling below that level would presage a drop to about 990, said Al Bicoff, the president of Technical Analytics. If that is breached, the S&P 500 might slip to 950, he added.
The S&P 500 plunged 25 percent from the start of the year through March 9 before rallying 52 percent in the steepest advance since the Great Depression. The index has traded higher than its 200-day moving average since July 13 and rose 17 percent above it yesterday, the most since April 1999. That distance has increased the importance of the 200-month average, which is less studied by analysts, Bicoff said.
“You have to look at the bigger picture now,” Bicoff said. “You are way above the 200-day now. The 200-day doesn’t have any significance at these price levels.”The S&P 500’s current 200-month moving average is also significant because it’s near 1,014.14, the so-called 38.2 percent retracement level for the bear market that began in October 2007, Bicoff said. Fibonacci analysts, who use a system pioneered by 13th-century mathematician Leonardo Pisano, make forecasts based on how an index performs when it recovers 38.2 percent or 61.8 percent of a retreat.
The S&P 500 plunged 25 percent from the start of the year through March 9 before rallying 52 percent in the steepest advance since the Great Depression. The index has traded higher than its 200-day moving average since July 13 and rose 17 percent above it yesterday, the most since April 1999. That distance has increased the importance of the 200-month average, which is less studied by analysts, Bicoff said.
“You have to look at the bigger picture now,” Bicoff said. “You are way above the 200-day now. The 200-day doesn’t have any significance at these price levels.”The S&P 500’s current 200-month moving average is also significant because it’s near 1,014.14, the so-called 38.2 percent retracement level for the bear market that began in October 2007, Bicoff said. Fibonacci analysts, who use a system pioneered by 13th-century mathematician Leonardo Pisano, make forecasts based on how an index performs when it recovers 38.2 percent or 61.8 percent of a retreat.
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Aug 27 09 06:55 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Outlook in crude oil remains neutral for the moment. Considering that the 75.0 was close to an important long term fibonacci resistance at 76.77 (38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and some loss of momentum as seen in 4 hours MACD, crude oil might have topped out already. Break of trend line support (now at 67.29) will solidify this case and flip intraday bias back to the downside for 65.23 support for confirmation. However, as long as the trend line support holds, another rise cannot be ruled out. Above 75.0 will target 76.77 fibo level next.
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Hence, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally. On the downside, break of 65.23 support will now be an important signal that crude oil has already topped out and will turn focus back to 58.32 key support for confirmation.
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Outlook in crude oil remains neutral for the moment. Considering that the 75.0 was close to an important long term fibonacci resistance at 76.77 (38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and some loss of momentum as seen in 4 hours MACD, crude oil might have topped out already. Break of trend line support (now at 67.29) will solidify this case and flip intraday bias back to the downside for 65.23 support for confirmation. However, as long as the trend line support holds, another rise cannot be ruled out. Above 75.0 will target 76.77 fibo level next.
In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Hence, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally. On the downside, break of 65.23 support will now be an important signal that crude oil has already topped out and will turn focus back to 58.32 key support for confirmation.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Thu Aug 27 09 06:57 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Short term outlook in Gold remains rather mixed for the moment as it's still bounded in choppy sideway trading. On the upside, above 959.9 will affirm the case that rise from 904.8 is resuming for a test on 974.3 first. On the downside, below 931.3 will indicate that fall from 974.3 is still in progress and has resumed for a test of 904.8 support.
In the bigger picture, price actions in gold remains choppily bounded in converging range between 865 and 1007.7. Where there are some possible developments inside such range, there is no change in the preferred view that it's merely consolidation to larger rise from 681, and should be near to completion. On the downside, in case of another fall, strong support should be seen at 904.8 support level and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. On the upside, break of 974.3 resistance will serve as the first alert that rise from 681 is resuming and will turn focus to 1007.7 key resistance level for confirmation.
Comex Gold (GC)
Short term outlook in Gold remains rather mixed for the moment as it's still bounded in choppy sideway trading. On the upside, above 959.9 will affirm the case that rise from 904.8 is resuming for a test on 974.3 first. On the downside, below 931.3 will indicate that fall from 974.3 is still in progress and has resumed for a test of 904.8 support.
In the bigger picture, price actions in gold remains choppily bounded in converging range between 865 and 1007.7. Where there are some possible developments inside such range, there is no change in the preferred view that it's merely consolidation to larger rise from 681, and should be near to completion. On the downside, in case of another fall, strong support should be seen at 904.8 support level and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. On the upside, break of 974.3 resistance will serve as the first alert that rise from 681 is resuming and will turn focus to 1007.7 key resistance level for confirmation.
Options Implied Stock Prices Forward 30 Days Trend
By: Richard_Shaw
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOptions traders provide one community of opinions worth considering when evaluating short-term prospects for stocks. While they as a group could be totally wrong, they differ importantly from analysts and academics, because they are risking their money on their opinions.It is mathematically possible to extrapolate the probable range of future prices through a specified period using the implied volatility of the near-term, “at the money” options associated with particular securities. We published the formula in a prior posting. It is important to note that the probability ranges make no suggestion as to direction, just the level of variation from the market price either positively or negatively. Other information is needed to inform your opinion as to whether prices will move into the upper or lower section of the probability ranges.
Key US Stock Indexes:
The chart below computes the 68% and 95% probably price ranges (one and two standard deviations of implied volatility) for key US stock indexes out 30 days based on the implied volatility from published volatility indexes.In short, the future prices changes over 30 days for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have a 68% probability of about 7%, and a 95% probability of about 14%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a somewhat narrower probable price range. The Russell 2000 small-cap index has a wider probability price range (about 9% and 18%).
Miscellaneous ETFs:
he next chart below utilizes the implied volatility of the near month Call option for the associated securities. Published volatility indexes are not available for those securities (with the possible exception of Japan, but we are not yet familiar with the Japan volatility index, so we didn’t use it).The miscellaneous selection of ETFs in the chart above shows widely varying probability ranges for prices over the next 30 days.
China and Brazil have wider probability ranges than emerging markets overall, and US equity REITs have a yet wider range of probable prices than China and Brazil.Japan has a comparatively low probable price range, as do long-term Treasuries. However, for a bond investor, the 4.7% to 9.3% range of 68% to 95% probable prices over the next 30 days for long-term Treasuries is quite large for fixed income securities.
Uses For Probable Price Ranges:
Two important potential uses for the probability price ranges are:
* thinking about stop loss points or percentages (setting stops outside of the ranges, if not greater than your absolute risk tolerance — or avoiding positions with probable price ranges outside of your risk tolerance)
* thinking about strike prices for selling covered calls (sell strikes outside of the ranges).
Certainly prices could move outside of the probability ranges (that’s why they are not 100% probability), but to the extent that odds are important to short-term decisions, implied volatility derived price probability ranges could be useful as one tool in an overall decision toolbox.
Relationship to Chart Support and Resistance:
Let’s look at how the volatility implied probable price ranges relate to graphical charts and some other kinds of clues to future prices.
Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOptions traders provide one community of opinions worth considering when evaluating short-term prospects for stocks. While they as a group could be totally wrong, they differ importantly from analysts and academics, because they are risking their money on their opinions.It is mathematically possible to extrapolate the probable range of future prices through a specified period using the implied volatility of the near-term, “at the money” options associated with particular securities. We published the formula in a prior posting. It is important to note that the probability ranges make no suggestion as to direction, just the level of variation from the market price either positively or negatively. Other information is needed to inform your opinion as to whether prices will move into the upper or lower section of the probability ranges.
Key US Stock Indexes:
The chart below computes the 68% and 95% probably price ranges (one and two standard deviations of implied volatility) for key US stock indexes out 30 days based on the implied volatility from published volatility indexes.In short, the future prices changes over 30 days for the S&P 500 and NASDAQ 100 have a 68% probability of about 7%, and a 95% probability of about 14%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has a somewhat narrower probable price range. The Russell 2000 small-cap index has a wider probability price range (about 9% and 18%).
Miscellaneous ETFs:
he next chart below utilizes the implied volatility of the near month Call option for the associated securities. Published volatility indexes are not available for those securities (with the possible exception of Japan, but we are not yet familiar with the Japan volatility index, so we didn’t use it).The miscellaneous selection of ETFs in the chart above shows widely varying probability ranges for prices over the next 30 days.
China and Brazil have wider probability ranges than emerging markets overall, and US equity REITs have a yet wider range of probable prices than China and Brazil.Japan has a comparatively low probable price range, as do long-term Treasuries. However, for a bond investor, the 4.7% to 9.3% range of 68% to 95% probable prices over the next 30 days for long-term Treasuries is quite large for fixed income securities.
Uses For Probable Price Ranges:
Two important potential uses for the probability price ranges are:
* thinking about stop loss points or percentages (setting stops outside of the ranges, if not greater than your absolute risk tolerance — or avoiding positions with probable price ranges outside of your risk tolerance)
* thinking about strike prices for selling covered calls (sell strikes outside of the ranges).
Certainly prices could move outside of the probability ranges (that’s why they are not 100% probability), but to the extent that odds are important to short-term decisions, implied volatility derived price probability ranges could be useful as one tool in an overall decision toolbox.
Relationship to Chart Support and Resistance:
Let’s look at how the volatility implied probable price ranges relate to graphical charts and some other kinds of clues to future prices.
Forex and Dow Jones Recommended Levels
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade | Aug 27 09 05:25 GMT |
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.4206(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.4196, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.4172. Break of the latter would result in 1.4127. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.4084. Continuation will give 1.4040.Today's resistance: - 1.4287, 1.4313, 1.4360 and 1.4400(main). Break would give 1.4450, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.4478. Break of the latter would result in 1.4511. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.4537. Continuation will give 1.4576.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 93.38(main). Break would bring 93.17, where correction is possible. Then 93.00, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 92.87. If a strong impulse, we would see 92.48. Continuation would give 92.23 and 92.00.Today's resistance: - 94.55, 94.97, 95.28 and 95.40(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 95.74, where also a correction may be. Then 95.95. If a strong impulse, we would see 96.19. Continuation will give 96.40 and 96.72.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9517.49, 9472.40 and 9450.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9437.65, where correction also can be. Then follows 9413.24. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9362.54. Continuation will bring 9266.30 and 9331.84.Today's resistance: - 9590.63(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9618.47, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9640.12, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9675.00. Continuation would bring 9696.50 and 9722.13.
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.4206(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.4196, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.4172. Break of the latter would result in 1.4127. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.4084. Continuation will give 1.4040.Today's resistance: - 1.4287, 1.4313, 1.4360 and 1.4400(main). Break would give 1.4450, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.4478. Break of the latter would result in 1.4511. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.4537. Continuation will give 1.4576.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 93.38(main). Break would bring 93.17, where correction is possible. Then 93.00, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 92.87. If a strong impulse, we would see 92.48. Continuation would give 92.23 and 92.00.Today's resistance: - 94.55, 94.97, 95.28 and 95.40(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 95.74, where also a correction may be. Then 95.95. If a strong impulse, we would see 96.19. Continuation will give 96.40 and 96.72.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9517.49, 9472.40 and 9450.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9437.65, where correction also can be. Then follows 9413.24. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9362.54. Continuation will bring 9266.30 and 9331.84.Today's resistance: - 9590.63(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9618.47, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9640.12, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9675.00. Continuation would bring 9696.50 and 9722.13.
Cable, Downside Acceleration Ahead?
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Foreign Exchange Analytics
Cable has turned lower, taking out key support at 1.6265/80 (both the base of the bullish channel since June and the Aug 17th low), and raising the potential for a further downside acceleration ahead. From an Elliott Wave perspective, note the series of subwaves over the last few weeks, and adds to the potential for a large tumble from here within wave iii of 3 in the fall from the Aug 5th high at 1.7040 (often the most “explosive” part of a larger cycle, see numbering on daily chart below). Still long from the Aug 12th buy at 1.6525, but will want to stop and even reverse on a close below the 1.6265/80 support area (then use a close above the bearish trendline from early Aug as a sign to stop). Nearby support is seen at 1.5985/00 then the June 8th low at 1.5810. Also if such a move does indeed occur, it will no doubt give at least some support for the $ versus other currencies.
Longer term, a close below the 1.6265/80 support area (and potential for a downside resolution, see above) would pose just too much downside risk to maintain the longer term bullish bias that has been in place since March 27th at 1.4300, and would switch to neutral on such a close. However, it would not necessarily be seen as completing a major top (with significant declines) but more likely a larger period (multi-month) of wide ranging/topping, with some potential for final new highs above 1.7040 over the next few months, so would not switch to a bearish bias for the longer term. Note too that important longer term resistance lies above the 1.7040 high at 1.7315/40 (50% from the Nov 2007 high at 2.1160), and markets do have a way of eventually reaching these key levels - just may take a number of months of wide ranging/topping in this case.
Cable has turned lower, taking out key support at 1.6265/80 (both the base of the bullish channel since June and the Aug 17th low), and raising the potential for a further downside acceleration ahead. From an Elliott Wave perspective, note the series of subwaves over the last few weeks, and adds to the potential for a large tumble from here within wave iii of 3 in the fall from the Aug 5th high at 1.7040 (often the most “explosive” part of a larger cycle, see numbering on daily chart below). Still long from the Aug 12th buy at 1.6525, but will want to stop and even reverse on a close below the 1.6265/80 support area (then use a close above the bearish trendline from early Aug as a sign to stop). Nearby support is seen at 1.5985/00 then the June 8th low at 1.5810. Also if such a move does indeed occur, it will no doubt give at least some support for the $ versus other currencies.
Longer term, a close below the 1.6265/80 support area (and potential for a downside resolution, see above) would pose just too much downside risk to maintain the longer term bullish bias that has been in place since March 27th at 1.4300, and would switch to neutral on such a close. However, it would not necessarily be seen as completing a major top (with significant declines) but more likely a larger period (multi-month) of wide ranging/topping, with some potential for final new highs above 1.7040 over the next few months, so would not switch to a bearish bias for the longer term. Note too that important longer term resistance lies above the 1.7040 high at 1.7315/40 (50% from the Nov 2007 high at 2.1160), and markets do have a way of eventually reaching these key levels - just may take a number of months of wide ranging/topping in this case.
Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Emiten 27-08-2009
Research Merrill Lynch Sec : Buy UNTR target Rp 25,475
Research UBS Sec: Neutral GGRM target Rp 16,300
Research Kim Eng Sec: Hold BMRI target Rp 3,900
Research Mandiri Sec : Neutral MEDC target Rp 3,175
Research CLSA Sec : Buy DOID target Rp 2,450
Bakrie & Brothers Menuju Rp 200
HARGA saham PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk (BNBR) berpotensi menuju level Rp 200 dalam jangka pendek maupun menengah. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, perseroan dikabarkan akan mengakuisisi perusahaan lokal yang bergerak di bidang infrastruktur, terkait pengembangan usaha pembangkit listrik. Selain itu, penyelesaian utang-utang perseroan pada September tahun ini juga berdampak positif. Pada perdagangan kemarin, BNBR ditutup menguat Rp 8 (6,11%) ke posisi Rp 139
Cermati Saham Berlina
HARGA saham PT Berlina Tbk (BRNA) berpeluang menuju level Rp 1.000, seiring adanya kabar bahwa salah satu perusahaan barang konsumsi tertarik membeli sebagian saham perseroan. Sumber Investor Daily mengatakan, perusahaan itu berniat menyinergikan anak usahanya, karena perseroan memproduksi bahan plastik. Di samping itu, fundamental BRNA masih menarik dengan PER 6 kali dan PBV 1.300. Pada perdagangan kemarin, BRNA ditutup naik Rp 30 (4,69%) ke level Rp 670. Tarif dasar listrik akan naik tahun 2010, pemerintah pelan-pelan akan mencabut subsidi listrik untuk industri di tahun 2010.
Tarif dasar listrik akan naik tahun 2010, pemerintah pelan-pelan akan mencabut subsidi listrik untuk industri di tahun 2010.
Harga tol akan naik 4 September 2009.
Pertumbuhan ekonomi Philipina menngkat 1.5% q/q diatas perkiraan pasar 0.5% q/q.
IHSG Dibuka Turun 13,34 Poin
Pergerakan IHSG pada perdagangan Rabu (26/8) ini dibuka turun 13,34 poin (0,56%) ke level 2.366,75 karena pengaruh turunnya bursa regional. Pada pukul 10.10 WIB Indeks Hang Seng -142.33 di 20,313.45, Nikkei 225 di 168.42 di 10,470.90, Shanghai -6.44 di 2,960.66, Kospi -13.05 di 1,600,00. Kekhawatiran China membatasi pembelian komoditi logam dan semen, dan memperkuat control penjualan saham dan obligasi. Data pengangguran Jepang bulan Juli melonjak ke 5.5%, inflasi -2.2% menunjukkan Jepang masih mengalami deflasi berkepanjangan.
Mata uang rupiah melemah terhadap dolar ke level terendah Rp 10,140 per dolar (10.10 WIB), karena penguatan dolar terhadap major, euro melemah ke $ 1.4251, poundsterling melemah ke $ 1.6231, yen menguat ke Y 93.79, Australian dolar $ 0.8268.
Gaet Herald, Beli Saham BUMI!
Harga saham PT BUmi Resources Tbk (BUMI) berpeluang naik lantaran terdorong oleh rencana pembelian 15% saham Herald.
Kucuran Kredit Meningkat, Beli Saham BBRI
Tahun ini, PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI) berencana akan mengucurkan kredit yang berpeluang meningkat 15% menjadi Rp185 triliun.
Usai Akuisisi Apexindo, MIRA Kedodoran
Semester pertama 2009, MIRA mencetak rugi bersih sebesar Rp 304,45 miliar.
Barito Masih Kaji Rights Issue
PT Barito Pacific Tbk (BRPT) menyatakan bahwa pihaknya masih mengkaji rencana penerbitan saham baru (rights issue). “Rights issue merupakan satu dari beberapa opsi yang masih dipelajari, kami belum memutuskannya secara resmi,” kata Vice President Investor Relations Barito Pacific Agustino Sudjono kepada Investor Daily, Rabu (26/8).
HM Sampoerna Restrukturisasi Anak Usaha
PT HM Sampoerna Tbk (HMSP) akan merestrukturisasi tiga anak usahanya, yaitu PT Perusahaan Dagang dan Industri Panamas, PT Handal Logistik Nusantara, dan PT Sampoerna Printpack, Sukorejo. Restrukturisasi itu guna meningkatkan kinerja yang lebih efektif dan efisien.
Arpeni Jual Kapal Rp 749 Miliar
PT Arpeni Pratama Ocean Line Tbk (APOL) menjual sejumlah kapal tanker senilai total Rp 749,88 miliar. Di sisi lain, perseroan akan membeli tujuh unit kapal senilai Rp 2,8 triliun.
BSD Tingkatkan Investasi Menjadi Rp 1 Triliun
PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSDE), perusahaan yang terafiliasi dengan grup Sinarmas, berniat meningkatkan investasinya dalam mengembangkan proyek properti tahun ini menjadi Rp 1 triliun dari sebelumnya Rp 700 miliar.
Saham Baru Mobile-8 Untuk Kreditur
PT Mobile-8 Telecom Tbk (FREN) bakal menerbitkan saham baru dalam rangka pengalihan utang menjadi ekuitas (debt to eguity).
Anak Usaha Bayan Dilarang Beroperasi di Kaltim
September, Pemerintah bayar Kupon Obligasi Global
Pada 4 September 2009, kesempatan investor menikmati bunga tinggi obligasi dalam dolar AS itu.
TRAM Jajaki Utang Perbankan US$ 70 Juta
PT Trada Maritime Tbk (TRAM) membutuhkan banyak dana seiring membeludaknya pesanan sewa kapal.
Kantongi Utang Bank Rp 3 T, JSMR Siap Bangun Jalan Tol
Pinjaman kali ini mengucur dari kantong tiga bank pelat merah; BNI, BRI dan Bank Mandiri.
Daya Sakti Unggul Digugat Pailit
PT Daya Sakti Unggul Corporation Tbk (DSUC) dugugatl pailit para krediturnya atas utang sebesar Rp618,8 juta.
Buy TLKM, JSMR, MPPA, UNVR & INDF
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) pada perdagangan Kamis (27/8) diperkirakan rebound. Beberapa saham yang terkorelasi dengan puasa dan Lebaran mendapat rekomendasi positif, seperti TLKM, JSMR, MPPA, UNVR dan INDF.
Harga Minyak Naik, Berkah untuk Distributor BBM
Tebal tipisnya kantong AKRA tergantung pergerakan harga minyak dunia.
SBY SUSUN CETAK BIRU KRITERIA KABINET, Sri Mulyani Tetap Menkeu
Dian Swastatika Incar Dana IPO Saham Rp 120 Miliar
PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa mengincar dana hasil penawaran umum perdana (initial public offering/IPO) saham sekitar Rp 100-120 miliar. Perseroan berniat melepas sekitar 10-15% sagam atau setara 100 juta unit kepada publik.
BSD Tingkatkan Investasi Menjadi Rp 1 Triliun
PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSDE), perusahaan yang terafiliasi dengan grup Sinarmas, berniat meningkatkan investasinya dalam mengembangkan proyek properti tahun ini menjadi Rp 1 triliun dari sebelumnya Rp 700 miliar.
Defisit AS 2010-2019 Capai US$ 9 T
Dalam satu dekade ke depan, total utang AS bakal mencapai tiga perempat dari produk domestik bruto (PDB) mereka.
Yield 10,42%, Investor Memburu SUN
Lantaran memberikan keuntungan tinggi, tidak heran surat utang terbitan pemerintah Indonesia paling diminati investor asing.
Sumber: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Inilah.com, Kontan, Detik.com.
www.strategydesk.co.id
Research UBS Sec: Neutral GGRM target Rp 16,300
Research Kim Eng Sec: Hold BMRI target Rp 3,900
Research Mandiri Sec : Neutral MEDC target Rp 3,175
Research CLSA Sec : Buy DOID target Rp 2,450
Bakrie & Brothers Menuju Rp 200
HARGA saham PT Bakrie & Brothers Tbk (BNBR) berpotensi menuju level Rp 200 dalam jangka pendek maupun menengah. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, perseroan dikabarkan akan mengakuisisi perusahaan lokal yang bergerak di bidang infrastruktur, terkait pengembangan usaha pembangkit listrik. Selain itu, penyelesaian utang-utang perseroan pada September tahun ini juga berdampak positif. Pada perdagangan kemarin, BNBR ditutup menguat Rp 8 (6,11%) ke posisi Rp 139
Cermati Saham Berlina
HARGA saham PT Berlina Tbk (BRNA) berpeluang menuju level Rp 1.000, seiring adanya kabar bahwa salah satu perusahaan barang konsumsi tertarik membeli sebagian saham perseroan. Sumber Investor Daily mengatakan, perusahaan itu berniat menyinergikan anak usahanya, karena perseroan memproduksi bahan plastik. Di samping itu, fundamental BRNA masih menarik dengan PER 6 kali dan PBV 1.300. Pada perdagangan kemarin, BRNA ditutup naik Rp 30 (4,69%) ke level Rp 670. Tarif dasar listrik akan naik tahun 2010, pemerintah pelan-pelan akan mencabut subsidi listrik untuk industri di tahun 2010.
Tarif dasar listrik akan naik tahun 2010, pemerintah pelan-pelan akan mencabut subsidi listrik untuk industri di tahun 2010.
Harga tol akan naik 4 September 2009.
Pertumbuhan ekonomi Philipina menngkat 1.5% q/q diatas perkiraan pasar 0.5% q/q.
IHSG Dibuka Turun 13,34 Poin
Pergerakan IHSG pada perdagangan Rabu (26/8) ini dibuka turun 13,34 poin (0,56%) ke level 2.366,75 karena pengaruh turunnya bursa regional. Pada pukul 10.10 WIB Indeks Hang Seng -142.33 di 20,313.45, Nikkei 225 di 168.42 di 10,470.90, Shanghai -6.44 di 2,960.66, Kospi -13.05 di 1,600,00. Kekhawatiran China membatasi pembelian komoditi logam dan semen, dan memperkuat control penjualan saham dan obligasi. Data pengangguran Jepang bulan Juli melonjak ke 5.5%, inflasi -2.2% menunjukkan Jepang masih mengalami deflasi berkepanjangan.
Mata uang rupiah melemah terhadap dolar ke level terendah Rp 10,140 per dolar (10.10 WIB), karena penguatan dolar terhadap major, euro melemah ke $ 1.4251, poundsterling melemah ke $ 1.6231, yen menguat ke Y 93.79, Australian dolar $ 0.8268.
Gaet Herald, Beli Saham BUMI!
Harga saham PT BUmi Resources Tbk (BUMI) berpeluang naik lantaran terdorong oleh rencana pembelian 15% saham Herald.
Kucuran Kredit Meningkat, Beli Saham BBRI
Tahun ini, PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia Tbk (BBRI) berencana akan mengucurkan kredit yang berpeluang meningkat 15% menjadi Rp185 triliun.
Usai Akuisisi Apexindo, MIRA Kedodoran
Semester pertama 2009, MIRA mencetak rugi bersih sebesar Rp 304,45 miliar.
Barito Masih Kaji Rights Issue
PT Barito Pacific Tbk (BRPT) menyatakan bahwa pihaknya masih mengkaji rencana penerbitan saham baru (rights issue). “Rights issue merupakan satu dari beberapa opsi yang masih dipelajari, kami belum memutuskannya secara resmi,” kata Vice President Investor Relations Barito Pacific Agustino Sudjono kepada Investor Daily, Rabu (26/8).
HM Sampoerna Restrukturisasi Anak Usaha
PT HM Sampoerna Tbk (HMSP) akan merestrukturisasi tiga anak usahanya, yaitu PT Perusahaan Dagang dan Industri Panamas, PT Handal Logistik Nusantara, dan PT Sampoerna Printpack, Sukorejo. Restrukturisasi itu guna meningkatkan kinerja yang lebih efektif dan efisien.
Arpeni Jual Kapal Rp 749 Miliar
PT Arpeni Pratama Ocean Line Tbk (APOL) menjual sejumlah kapal tanker senilai total Rp 749,88 miliar. Di sisi lain, perseroan akan membeli tujuh unit kapal senilai Rp 2,8 triliun.
BSD Tingkatkan Investasi Menjadi Rp 1 Triliun
PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSDE), perusahaan yang terafiliasi dengan grup Sinarmas, berniat meningkatkan investasinya dalam mengembangkan proyek properti tahun ini menjadi Rp 1 triliun dari sebelumnya Rp 700 miliar.
Saham Baru Mobile-8 Untuk Kreditur
PT Mobile-8 Telecom Tbk (FREN) bakal menerbitkan saham baru dalam rangka pengalihan utang menjadi ekuitas (debt to eguity).
Anak Usaha Bayan Dilarang Beroperasi di Kaltim
September, Pemerintah bayar Kupon Obligasi Global
Pada 4 September 2009, kesempatan investor menikmati bunga tinggi obligasi dalam dolar AS itu.
TRAM Jajaki Utang Perbankan US$ 70 Juta
PT Trada Maritime Tbk (TRAM) membutuhkan banyak dana seiring membeludaknya pesanan sewa kapal.
Kantongi Utang Bank Rp 3 T, JSMR Siap Bangun Jalan Tol
Pinjaman kali ini mengucur dari kantong tiga bank pelat merah; BNI, BRI dan Bank Mandiri.
Daya Sakti Unggul Digugat Pailit
PT Daya Sakti Unggul Corporation Tbk (DSUC) dugugatl pailit para krediturnya atas utang sebesar Rp618,8 juta.
Buy TLKM, JSMR, MPPA, UNVR & INDF
Indeks Harga Saham Gabungan (IHSG) pada perdagangan Kamis (27/8) diperkirakan rebound. Beberapa saham yang terkorelasi dengan puasa dan Lebaran mendapat rekomendasi positif, seperti TLKM, JSMR, MPPA, UNVR dan INDF.
Harga Minyak Naik, Berkah untuk Distributor BBM
Tebal tipisnya kantong AKRA tergantung pergerakan harga minyak dunia.
SBY SUSUN CETAK BIRU KRITERIA KABINET, Sri Mulyani Tetap Menkeu
Dian Swastatika Incar Dana IPO Saham Rp 120 Miliar
PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa mengincar dana hasil penawaran umum perdana (initial public offering/IPO) saham sekitar Rp 100-120 miliar. Perseroan berniat melepas sekitar 10-15% sagam atau setara 100 juta unit kepada publik.
BSD Tingkatkan Investasi Menjadi Rp 1 Triliun
PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk (BSDE), perusahaan yang terafiliasi dengan grup Sinarmas, berniat meningkatkan investasinya dalam mengembangkan proyek properti tahun ini menjadi Rp 1 triliun dari sebelumnya Rp 700 miliar.
Defisit AS 2010-2019 Capai US$ 9 T
Dalam satu dekade ke depan, total utang AS bakal mencapai tiga perempat dari produk domestik bruto (PDB) mereka.
Yield 10,42%, Investor Memburu SUN
Lantaran memberikan keuntungan tinggi, tidak heran surat utang terbitan pemerintah Indonesia paling diminati investor asing.
Sumber: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Inilah.com, Kontan, Detik.com.
www.strategydesk.co.id
IHSG Berpotensi Memasuki Fase Koreksi Lebih Lanjut
Market Review
IHSG gagal mempertahankan kenaikan 2 hari dari 3 hari terakhir kemarin, setelah imbas penurunan harga komoditi global mengikuti penurunan minyak ke US$ 71/barel dari tertinggi US$ 75/barel kemarin, diikuti minimnya sentimen positif dan lesunya volume perdagangan yang mendorong investor melakukan aksi profit-taking di sejumlah saham di sektor pertambangan, industri dasar, manufaktur dan konsumer. Meski laju penurunan yang sangat tipis, berkat kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia dan kenaikan saham domestik di sektor property, finansial, perkebunan dan perdagangan. IHSG menurun tipis 0.434 poin (-0.02%) di level 2.380,087, nilai transaksi sebesar Rp 4,967.35 triliun. Investor asing mencatat net buying Rp 72.38 miliar kemarin, dibandingkan Rp 54 miliar (25/08) dan Rp 101 miliar (24/08).
Indeks saham regional Asia menguat, mendorong indeks MSCI Asia Pasific ke level tertinggi 2-pekan, karena laporan pendapatan perusahaan China meningkat dan laporan keyakinan konsumen dan harga rumah AS melampaui perkiraan pasar. Imbas dari pernyataan Fed Bernanke mengenai pemulihan ekonomi global dan lemahnya lelang Treasury AS, memberikan sentimen positif kepada indeks saham Asia.
IHSG Outlook
IndP/E (x)
EPS
Y/YY/YSuku Bunga*Inflasi*
Y/YGDP*
Y/Y
IHSG15.88%+12%6.50%2.7%4.0%
STI22.016%-3.5%0.69%-0.70%-6.5%
KLCI14.910%+2.5%2.0%3.00%-6.2%
SET13.54%-15.0%1.25%-3.30%-4.9%
SSE29.536%+8.5%5.31%-1.40%7.9%
N22542.5-1%-18.4%0.10%-0.10%-3.9%
HSI23.519%-11.0%0.50%0.60%-7.80%
DJIA19.03%-11.3%0.25%-0.7%-3.6%
* Negara Bersangkutan
Pergerakan IHSG di pekan ini diperkirakan masih berada dalam fase konsolidasi dalam sebuah trend yang bullish jangka pendek dan jangka menengah, karena solidnya fundamental ekonomi RI dan emiten di semester 1 2009, prospek penguatan rupiah, investor asing masih membukukan net buying dalam 3 sesi perdagangan terakhir (total Rp 227 miliar) dan faktor teknikal bullish meski terlihat overbought, dapat dibatasi oleh katalis negatif dari perkiraan kenaikan inflasi bulan Agustus (dirilis awal pekan depan) yang dapat memberikan petunjuk untuk suku bunga acuan di RDG bulan September (pekan depan), penurunan harga komoditi global (koreksi penurunan harga minyak terbatas di US$ 68/barel untuk target US$ 77) negatif untuk saham komoditi (bobot saham komoditi domestik mencakup lebih dari 50% dari bobot IHSG) di tengah lesunya volume perdagangan di bulan Ramadhan.
Sementara trend bullish Wall Street di tengah optimisme resesi global akan berakhir di tahun ini dan spekulasi penunjukkan kembali Chairman Fed Bernanke untuk periode yang kedua, seharusnya dapat memberikan sentimen positif kepada IHSG. Meski momentum yang positif tersebut dapat dibatasi oleh imbas negatif dari trend penurunan indeks saham Shanghai China di tengah kekhawatiran kebijakan pengetatan moneter PBOC China, mahalnya valuasi indeks MSCI Asia-Pasific, telah berakhirnya euphoria earning semester 1 dan data GDP Q2 AS hari ini.
Stock Picks: Average last 9 week +65.56%. Target 10 - 30%, Risk <-10%
Hold Buy: BUMI, UNSP, ASII, BBRI, BMRI, ITMG, CTRA, MNCN, INKP, INDF, PGAS, KLBF. Trading Buy JSMR, BRPT, DOID. Profit Taking: 28/08
Stock Picks:
•BRPT : Buy target Rp 1,975
•HMSP : Hold target Rp 9500
Global Outlook
Momentum kenaikan indeks saham global hari ini akan terbatas, menjelang data GDP Q2 AS (preliminary) diprediksi -1.4% q/q dari -1.0% q/q di laporan sebelumnya, meski sejumlah data ekonomi global memberikan sentimen positif kepada indeks saham global. Laporan data ekonomi tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar, seperti IFO Jerman (90.5), New Home Sales AS bulan Juli (433K; mengikuti jejak Existing Home Sales & Housing Starts), Durable Goods Order AS (4.9%), meningkatkan keyakinan diantara investor saham untuk mengakumulasi saham global. Meski sentimen tersebut dapat dibatasi oleh penurunan harga minyak (API inventory AS +4.3 juta barel; crude oil inventories AS +0.2 juta barel di pekan lalu) yang negatif untuk saham komoditi, data Trade Balance Jepang (0.19 triliun yen dari prediksi 0.35 triliun yen) dan prediksi CBO AS bahwa ekonomi AS akan terkontraksi lebih dalam dari perkiraan berkat membengkaknya defisit anggaran tahun 2009-2019.
Daily Performance : World Stock Index (26-08)
Technical Analysis:
Momentum kenaikan IHSG kembali terbatas berkat signal candle doji star di daily chart, indikas negative divergence antara kenaikan harga dengan penurunan volume, indikator ADX- terkeroksi meski ADX rebound tipis dan sejumlah strong resistance di 2,411 (high 14-08)-2,425 (76.4 FR 2838-1089)-2,445 (middle line channel) seharusnya dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan IHSG hari ini. Sementara indikator MACD yang bullish, 5 & 10–day MA crossover dalam pola uptrend channel, seharusnya dapat menopang knerja bull IHSG selama ditutup harian diatas 2,333. Hitungan EW menunjukkan IHSG berada dalam diagonal v/b selama level 2,386-2,411 (sell area) tidak ditembus, target 2,220/2,271 (1.61 wave c) dalam c.w 4)
Resistance: 2409.57/2399.02/2394.28/2389.55. PP 2377.91
Support : 2373.18/2368.45//2356.81/2346.26
IHSG gagal mempertahankan kenaikan 2 hari dari 3 hari terakhir kemarin, setelah imbas penurunan harga komoditi global mengikuti penurunan minyak ke US$ 71/barel dari tertinggi US$ 75/barel kemarin, diikuti minimnya sentimen positif dan lesunya volume perdagangan yang mendorong investor melakukan aksi profit-taking di sejumlah saham di sektor pertambangan, industri dasar, manufaktur dan konsumer. Meski laju penurunan yang sangat tipis, berkat kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia dan kenaikan saham domestik di sektor property, finansial, perkebunan dan perdagangan. IHSG menurun tipis 0.434 poin (-0.02%) di level 2.380,087, nilai transaksi sebesar Rp 4,967.35 triliun. Investor asing mencatat net buying Rp 72.38 miliar kemarin, dibandingkan Rp 54 miliar (25/08) dan Rp 101 miliar (24/08).
Indeks saham regional Asia menguat, mendorong indeks MSCI Asia Pasific ke level tertinggi 2-pekan, karena laporan pendapatan perusahaan China meningkat dan laporan keyakinan konsumen dan harga rumah AS melampaui perkiraan pasar. Imbas dari pernyataan Fed Bernanke mengenai pemulihan ekonomi global dan lemahnya lelang Treasury AS, memberikan sentimen positif kepada indeks saham Asia.
IHSG Outlook
IndP/E (x)
EPS
Y/YY/YSuku Bunga*Inflasi*
Y/YGDP*
Y/Y
IHSG15.88%+12%6.50%2.7%4.0%
STI22.016%-3.5%0.69%-0.70%-6.5%
KLCI14.910%+2.5%2.0%3.00%-6.2%
SET13.54%-15.0%1.25%-3.30%-4.9%
SSE29.536%+8.5%5.31%-1.40%7.9%
N22542.5-1%-18.4%0.10%-0.10%-3.9%
HSI23.519%-11.0%0.50%0.60%-7.80%
DJIA19.03%-11.3%0.25%-0.7%-3.6%
* Negara Bersangkutan
Pergerakan IHSG di pekan ini diperkirakan masih berada dalam fase konsolidasi dalam sebuah trend yang bullish jangka pendek dan jangka menengah, karena solidnya fundamental ekonomi RI dan emiten di semester 1 2009, prospek penguatan rupiah, investor asing masih membukukan net buying dalam 3 sesi perdagangan terakhir (total Rp 227 miliar) dan faktor teknikal bullish meski terlihat overbought, dapat dibatasi oleh katalis negatif dari perkiraan kenaikan inflasi bulan Agustus (dirilis awal pekan depan) yang dapat memberikan petunjuk untuk suku bunga acuan di RDG bulan September (pekan depan), penurunan harga komoditi global (koreksi penurunan harga minyak terbatas di US$ 68/barel untuk target US$ 77) negatif untuk saham komoditi (bobot saham komoditi domestik mencakup lebih dari 50% dari bobot IHSG) di tengah lesunya volume perdagangan di bulan Ramadhan.
Sementara trend bullish Wall Street di tengah optimisme resesi global akan berakhir di tahun ini dan spekulasi penunjukkan kembali Chairman Fed Bernanke untuk periode yang kedua, seharusnya dapat memberikan sentimen positif kepada IHSG. Meski momentum yang positif tersebut dapat dibatasi oleh imbas negatif dari trend penurunan indeks saham Shanghai China di tengah kekhawatiran kebijakan pengetatan moneter PBOC China, mahalnya valuasi indeks MSCI Asia-Pasific, telah berakhirnya euphoria earning semester 1 dan data GDP Q2 AS hari ini.
Stock Picks: Average last 9 week +65.56%. Target 10 - 30%, Risk <-10%
Hold Buy: BUMI, UNSP, ASII, BBRI, BMRI, ITMG, CTRA, MNCN, INKP, INDF, PGAS, KLBF. Trading Buy JSMR, BRPT, DOID. Profit Taking: 28/08
Stock Picks:
•BRPT : Buy target Rp 1,975
•HMSP : Hold target Rp 9500
Global Outlook
Momentum kenaikan indeks saham global hari ini akan terbatas, menjelang data GDP Q2 AS (preliminary) diprediksi -1.4% q/q dari -1.0% q/q di laporan sebelumnya, meski sejumlah data ekonomi global memberikan sentimen positif kepada indeks saham global. Laporan data ekonomi tercatat lebih baik dari perkiraan pasar, seperti IFO Jerman (90.5), New Home Sales AS bulan Juli (433K; mengikuti jejak Existing Home Sales & Housing Starts), Durable Goods Order AS (4.9%), meningkatkan keyakinan diantara investor saham untuk mengakumulasi saham global. Meski sentimen tersebut dapat dibatasi oleh penurunan harga minyak (API inventory AS +4.3 juta barel; crude oil inventories AS +0.2 juta barel di pekan lalu) yang negatif untuk saham komoditi, data Trade Balance Jepang (0.19 triliun yen dari prediksi 0.35 triliun yen) dan prediksi CBO AS bahwa ekonomi AS akan terkontraksi lebih dalam dari perkiraan berkat membengkaknya defisit anggaran tahun 2009-2019.
Daily Performance : World Stock Index (26-08)
Technical Analysis:
Momentum kenaikan IHSG kembali terbatas berkat signal candle doji star di daily chart, indikas negative divergence antara kenaikan harga dengan penurunan volume, indikator ADX- terkeroksi meski ADX rebound tipis dan sejumlah strong resistance di 2,411 (high 14-08)-2,425 (76.4 FR 2838-1089)-2,445 (middle line channel) seharusnya dapat membatasi potensi kenaikan IHSG hari ini. Sementara indikator MACD yang bullish, 5 & 10–day MA crossover dalam pola uptrend channel, seharusnya dapat menopang knerja bull IHSG selama ditutup harian diatas 2,333. Hitungan EW menunjukkan IHSG berada dalam diagonal v/b selama level 2,386-2,411 (sell area) tidak ditembus, target 2,220/2,271 (1.61 wave c) dalam c.w 4)
Resistance: 2409.57/2399.02/2394.28/2389.55. PP 2377.91
Support : 2373.18/2368.45//2356.81/2346.26
Momentum Sell on rally (Wave 4) Masih Dukung Potensi Penurunan Indeks Regional
Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)
Indeks Nikkei ditutup menguat 1,38% hari ini, sekaligus catat level penutupan tertinggi dalam 10 bulan terakhir. Penguatan indeks indikator ekonomi AS yang cukup baik semalam, sehingga memberi harapan pemulihan ekonomi. Namun, pergerakan saham masih terfokus jelang hasil pemilu Jepang. Indeks Nikkei ditutup menguat 142,35 poin, atau 1,36%, ke posisi 10.639,71, level penutupan tertinggi sejak 3 Oktober lalu.
Indeks menunjukkan pola candle daily homing pidgeon memberikan indikasi kenaikan indeks mulai menunjukkan hambatan, meski berada dalam uprend channel. Indikator ADX rebound, MACD masih berada teritorial bullish, seharusnya memberikan support kepada indeks pada akhir pekan ini. Hitungan EW menunjukkan Nikkei berada di dalam wave impulse 5 / 3. Resistance di 10680 (high 26/08 ))/10745 (middle line channel). Support 10550 (channel support)/10435 (61.8% FR). Perkiraan range hari ini 10550-10700. Rekomendasi Hold Sell 10610 target 10450 stp 100p, Buy 10450 target 10650 stop 100p, buy 10,000 target 10300, buy break 10,650 target 10,750. (0p)Chart SSIU9 4-Jam
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Saham Korsel berhasil menguat hari ini, didorong oleh performa saham teknologi seperti LG Dispaly menyusul proyeksi perolehan laba. Selain itu, data konsumsi domestik Korsel yang lebih baik dari prediksi berhasil angkat saham peritel, seperti Hyundai Departement Store. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup naik 12,74 poin, atau 0,80%, ke posisi 1.614,12 poin, level penutupan tertinggi sejak Juli 2008.
Indeks masih memberikan signal positif dari pola candle hanging man dan berada dalam uptrend channel, seharusnya memberikan support kepada indeks hari ini. Indikator ADX yang lemah, MACD masih bullish. Hitungan Elliot wave menunjukkan, indeks saat ini berada dalam wave impulse 5/3. Resistance di 211.30 (161.8 FR)/213.40 (upper channel). Support di 208.40/206.35. Rekomendasi Buy 206.50 target 210.00 stop 100p, sell break 208.40 target 206.50, Sell break 203.00 target 197.50 stop 60p. Buy 205.00 target 207.50 stop 50p. Sell 211.30 & 213.00 target 206.50 stop 100p. Chart KSU9 4-Jam
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Agustus (HSIQ9)
Indeks Hang Seng ditutup flat hari ini, dimana sikap investor enggan masuk ke bursa saham di tengah kekhawatiran mengenai likuiditas di pasar Cina. Menguatnya saham Cina karena membaiknya kinerja laporan keuangan China Life dan Air China tidak dapat menopang laju indeks Hang Seng. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup naik 21,08 poin, atau 0,1%, ke posisi 20.456,32.
Dalam chart daily, Indeks menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle doji dalam sebuah uptrend channel minor dalam pola descending triangle, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan potensi kenaikan terbatas hari ini. Indeks akan mendapatkan hambatan di sejumlah resistance 20720/20950 Support di 20340/10140. Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan proses koreksi 4 / 4). Rekomendasi : Buy 20140 target 20500 stop 19980. Buy break 20750 target 21,000 stop 1oop. Sell 21100 target 204500 stop 100p. Buy 20320 target 20550 stop 100p, Sell break 19980 target 19750, sell 20670 target 20350. (-100p)Chart HSIN9 4-jam
Indeks Nikkei ditutup menguat 1,38% hari ini, sekaligus catat level penutupan tertinggi dalam 10 bulan terakhir. Penguatan indeks indikator ekonomi AS yang cukup baik semalam, sehingga memberi harapan pemulihan ekonomi. Namun, pergerakan saham masih terfokus jelang hasil pemilu Jepang. Indeks Nikkei ditutup menguat 142,35 poin, atau 1,36%, ke posisi 10.639,71, level penutupan tertinggi sejak 3 Oktober lalu.
Indeks menunjukkan pola candle daily homing pidgeon memberikan indikasi kenaikan indeks mulai menunjukkan hambatan, meski berada dalam uprend channel. Indikator ADX rebound, MACD masih berada teritorial bullish, seharusnya memberikan support kepada indeks pada akhir pekan ini. Hitungan EW menunjukkan Nikkei berada di dalam wave impulse 5 / 3. Resistance di 10680 (high 26/08 ))/10745 (middle line channel). Support 10550 (channel support)/10435 (61.8% FR). Perkiraan range hari ini 10550-10700. Rekomendasi Hold Sell 10610 target 10450 stp 100p, Buy 10450 target 10650 stop 100p, buy 10,000 target 10300, buy break 10,650 target 10,750. (0p)Chart SSIU9 4-Jam
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Saham Korsel berhasil menguat hari ini, didorong oleh performa saham teknologi seperti LG Dispaly menyusul proyeksi perolehan laba. Selain itu, data konsumsi domestik Korsel yang lebih baik dari prediksi berhasil angkat saham peritel, seperti Hyundai Departement Store. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup naik 12,74 poin, atau 0,80%, ke posisi 1.614,12 poin, level penutupan tertinggi sejak Juli 2008.
Indeks masih memberikan signal positif dari pola candle hanging man dan berada dalam uptrend channel, seharusnya memberikan support kepada indeks hari ini. Indikator ADX yang lemah, MACD masih bullish. Hitungan Elliot wave menunjukkan, indeks saat ini berada dalam wave impulse 5/3. Resistance di 211.30 (161.8 FR)/213.40 (upper channel). Support di 208.40/206.35. Rekomendasi Buy 206.50 target 210.00 stop 100p, sell break 208.40 target 206.50, Sell break 203.00 target 197.50 stop 60p. Buy 205.00 target 207.50 stop 50p. Sell 211.30 & 213.00 target 206.50 stop 100p. Chart KSU9 4-Jam
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Agustus (HSIQ9)
Indeks Hang Seng ditutup flat hari ini, dimana sikap investor enggan masuk ke bursa saham di tengah kekhawatiran mengenai likuiditas di pasar Cina. Menguatnya saham Cina karena membaiknya kinerja laporan keuangan China Life dan Air China tidak dapat menopang laju indeks Hang Seng. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup naik 21,08 poin, atau 0,1%, ke posisi 20.456,32.
Dalam chart daily, Indeks menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle doji dalam sebuah uptrend channel minor dalam pola descending triangle, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan potensi kenaikan terbatas hari ini. Indeks akan mendapatkan hambatan di sejumlah resistance 20720/20950 Support di 20340/10140. Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan proses koreksi 4 / 4). Rekomendasi : Buy 20140 target 20500 stop 19980. Buy break 20750 target 21,000 stop 1oop. Sell 21100 target 204500 stop 100p. Buy 20320 target 20550 stop 100p, Sell break 19980 target 19750, sell 20670 target 20350. (-100p)Chart HSIN9 4-jam
Faktor Breakout Trendine Minor Dorong Pelemahan Euro, Pound
Technical Analysis
EUR-USD
Euro mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola reversal dari pola candle bearish candle (25/08) meski masih bertahan diatas channel support 1.4140 dalam sebuah uptrend channel, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan. Indikator ADX up, stochastic oversold dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih dukung potensi kenaikan. Support berada di 1.4130/1.4200, Resistance berada di 1.4400/1.4450. Euro dalam wave impulse 5 / (4), untuk target 1.4450/1.4500, selama tidak ditutup dibawah 1.4140. Buy 1.4070 target 1.4150, Buy 1.4140 target 1.4300 stop 1.4070, hold buy 1.4250 target 1.4350 stop 1.4190. sell 1.4380 & 1.4440 target 1.4100, buy break 1.4460 trgt 1.4730. sell break 1.4050 tgt 1.3750.
USD-JPY
USDJPY masih berada dalam trend bearish selama berada dibawah upper channel di 95.85 diikuti pola bearish candle (25-08) dan kondisi candle indikasi bearish reversal. Penutupan dibawah channel di 95.60 akan mengarahkan USDJPY ke target low kemarin di 93.80. Indikator ADX up, stochastic crossdown, MACD bearish, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan selama bertahan di bawah 94.95. Resistance berada di 94.65/95.60, support di 93.80/93.20. Sell 95.60 target 93.50 stop 100p. sell 95.85 target 95.00 stop 60p. Hold Buy 94.00 & Buy 93.50 stop 60p target 95.60 & Buy 92.80 target 94.50 stop 92.00.
GBP-USD
(-60-50p) Pola broadening bullish, uptrend channel GBP telah breakout diikuti indikator ADX up, stochastic oversold dan MACD masih berada di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas dalam pola downtrend channel selama ditutup dibawah upper channel 1.6320. Buy 1.6150 target 1.6450 stop 1.6080. sell 1.6550 target 1.6400 stop 60p, buy break 1.6650 target 1.6850. Buy 1.6030 target 1.6450 stop 60p . Sell break 1.6000 target 1.5800. Buy break 1.6320 target 1.6500.AUD-USD
AUD masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan trend bullish jangka menengah, diikuti pola bullish continuation, sementara indikator ADX flat, stochastic bearish, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas target 0.8450, selama di bawah 0.8260. Resistance di 0.8725/0.8500, support di 0.8260/0.8180. Hold Buy 0.8280 target 0.8450, sell 0.8450 target 0.8300 & sell 0.8550 stop 0.8620. sell break 0.8000 target 0.7900. Buy 0.8200 target 0.8350.
EUR-USD
Euro mendapatkan signal negatif dari pola reversal dari pola candle bearish candle (25/08) meski masih bertahan diatas channel support 1.4140 dalam sebuah uptrend channel, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan. Indikator ADX up, stochastic oversold dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih dukung potensi kenaikan. Support berada di 1.4130/1.4200, Resistance berada di 1.4400/1.4450. Euro dalam wave impulse 5 / (4), untuk target 1.4450/1.4500, selama tidak ditutup dibawah 1.4140. Buy 1.4070 target 1.4150, Buy 1.4140 target 1.4300 stop 1.4070, hold buy 1.4250 target 1.4350 stop 1.4190. sell 1.4380 & 1.4440 target 1.4100, buy break 1.4460 trgt 1.4730. sell break 1.4050 tgt 1.3750.
USD-JPY
USDJPY masih berada dalam trend bearish selama berada dibawah upper channel di 95.85 diikuti pola bearish candle (25-08) dan kondisi candle indikasi bearish reversal. Penutupan dibawah channel di 95.60 akan mengarahkan USDJPY ke target low kemarin di 93.80. Indikator ADX up, stochastic crossdown, MACD bearish, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan selama bertahan di bawah 94.95. Resistance berada di 94.65/95.60, support di 93.80/93.20. Sell 95.60 target 93.50 stop 100p. sell 95.85 target 95.00 stop 60p. Hold Buy 94.00 & Buy 93.50 stop 60p target 95.60 & Buy 92.80 target 94.50 stop 92.00.
GBP-USD
(-60-50p) Pola broadening bullish, uptrend channel GBP telah breakout diikuti indikator ADX up, stochastic oversold dan MACD masih berada di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas dalam pola downtrend channel selama ditutup dibawah upper channel 1.6320. Buy 1.6150 target 1.6450 stop 1.6080. sell 1.6550 target 1.6400 stop 60p, buy break 1.6650 target 1.6850. Buy 1.6030 target 1.6450 stop 60p . Sell break 1.6000 target 1.5800. Buy break 1.6320 target 1.6500.AUD-USD
AUD masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan trend bullish jangka menengah, diikuti pola bullish continuation, sementara indikator ADX flat, stochastic bearish, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas target 0.8450, selama di bawah 0.8260. Resistance di 0.8725/0.8500, support di 0.8260/0.8180. Hold Buy 0.8280 target 0.8450, sell 0.8450 target 0.8300 & sell 0.8550 stop 0.8620. sell break 0.8000 target 0.7900. Buy 0.8200 target 0.8350.
U.S. Stock Pessimism Drops to Lowest Since 2007, Survey Finds
(Bloomberg) -- Pessimism about U.S. stocks fell to the lowest level since the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index peaked in October 2007, as economic reports and policy makers indicate the recession in the world’s largest economy is easing.
The proportion of bearish newsletter writers dropped to 19.8 percent in the week ended yesterday from 23.1 percent in the period that ended Aug. 18, a survey by Investors Intelligence showed today. Bullish stock advisors climbed to 51.6 percent from 48.3 percent, reaching the highest reading since December 2007, the New Rochelle, New York-based firm said.
Investor confidence improved after the S&P 500 surged 52 percent since March 9, the steepest rally since the Great Depression. Pessimism fell after peaking at an almost 14-year high of 54.4 percent in October as reports showed the recession is easing. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said last week that the economy is “starting to see signs of stability.”
“There’s no doubt that the economic data that comes out is getting more and more positive,” said Tom Wirth, senior investment officer at Chemung Canal Trust Co., which manages $1.5 billion in Elmira, New York. “As that evidence grows stronger and stronger, people are going to feel better about investing in the stock market.”
Purchases of new homes in the U.S. jumped more than forecast in July, adding to signs that the economy is rebounding from the worst recession since the 1930s. Sales increased 9.6 percent, the most since February 2005, to a 433,000 annual pace, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The number of houses on the market dropped to the lowest level in 16 years.
Newsletter writers predicting a correction, or a 10 percent drop in benchmark indexes, were unchanged at 28.6 percent, according to the Investors Intelligence survey.
Some technical analysts, who try to predict stock moves based on price and trading patterns, track sentiment as a contrarian indicator. They interpret an increase in optimism as a sign that equities may retreat.
The proportion of bearish newsletter writers dropped to 19.8 percent in the week ended yesterday from 23.1 percent in the period that ended Aug. 18, a survey by Investors Intelligence showed today. Bullish stock advisors climbed to 51.6 percent from 48.3 percent, reaching the highest reading since December 2007, the New Rochelle, New York-based firm said.
Investor confidence improved after the S&P 500 surged 52 percent since March 9, the steepest rally since the Great Depression. Pessimism fell after peaking at an almost 14-year high of 54.4 percent in October as reports showed the recession is easing. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said last week that the economy is “starting to see signs of stability.”
“There’s no doubt that the economic data that comes out is getting more and more positive,” said Tom Wirth, senior investment officer at Chemung Canal Trust Co., which manages $1.5 billion in Elmira, New York. “As that evidence grows stronger and stronger, people are going to feel better about investing in the stock market.”
Purchases of new homes in the U.S. jumped more than forecast in July, adding to signs that the economy is rebounding from the worst recession since the 1930s. Sales increased 9.6 percent, the most since February 2005, to a 433,000 annual pace, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. The number of houses on the market dropped to the lowest level in 16 years.
Newsletter writers predicting a correction, or a 10 percent drop in benchmark indexes, were unchanged at 28.6 percent, according to the Investors Intelligence survey.
Some technical analysts, who try to predict stock moves based on price and trading patterns, track sentiment as a contrarian indicator. They interpret an increase in optimism as a sign that equities may retreat.
Wednesday, August 26, 2009
Dollar May Keep Falling, Yuan Gain, Strategists Say
(Bloomberg) -- The dollar will continue to weaken this year as the global economy recovers from recession and investors seek currencies linked to growth, strategists said in a panel on Bloomberg Radio. “Investors in the U.S. and globally are sitting in too many T-bills and too much cash,” said Rebecca Patterson, global head of foreign exchange at JPMorgan Private Bank in New York. “As the world slowly gets better, they are going to want to take advantage of that. They want a better yield than you get in a T-bill, and that keeps the dollar under pressure.”
The dollar has weakened this year against 13 of the 16 most-traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Currencies tied to commodities and growth, such as the Brazilian real, South African rand and Australian and New Zealand dollars, gained the most against the greenback. U.S. Treasury notes and bills due in one year and less returned investors 0.4 percent this year, according to a Merrill Lynch & Co. index. “We are still in the camp that the dollar has further downside to go,” said Callum Henderson, global head of currency strategy at Standard Chartered in Singapore. “You’ll see a renewed period of downside for the dollar, but more positively, upside for high-yielding emerging market and developed market currencies.”
European Recovery
Gross domestic product in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, unexpectedly grew 0.3 percent in the second quarter from the first, the nation’s statistics office said Aug. 13, bringing an end to its worst recession in more than a half-century. France’s economy, the second largest among the 16 nations that use the euro, also unexpectedly exited a recession in the second quarter, with GDP rising 0.3 percent, the nation’s statistics office also said on Aug. 13. The U.S. economy shrank 0.3 percent in the second quarter from the first three months of the year.
“In Europe, we have a much stronger economic outcome as many people believed,” said Hans-Guenter Redeker, the London- based global head of currency strategy at BNP Paribas SA. “German and French growth numbers have been a pleasant surprise for the second quarter.” Redeker said the euro, which gained 2.3 percent against the dollar this year, may strengthen to $1.50. The euro traded at $1.4296 at 7:08 a.m. today in Tokyo.
JPMorgan’s Patterson said there are better ways to take advantage of increased risk appetite as the global economy recovers than investing in the euro. “I look at the euro and I say the worries about the deficit and U.S. debt are mirrored in Europe,” Patterson said. “The euro doesn’t have the same reserve currency support that the dollar has. For a short-term trade, it’s fine. For a long- term diversification tool, I’d stay away from it.”
Reserve Role
The U.S. dollar may weaken as governments worldwide reduce the currency’s role in their foreign-exchange reserves, said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor’s. “We do expect a bit of dollar weakness and expect the dollar won’t be as dominant in world reserves as it has been in the recent past,” he said today in Sydney at a conference. “It will still be the biggest reserve currency but we will go back to a more normal distribution, back to more like what we had 10 or 15 years ago when the dollar was 70 percent of reserves instead of 90 percent of reserves.”
China’s Domestic Demand
Strategists also said China’s ability to continue growth will depend on the nation changing from an economy driven by exports to one expanding on domestic demand, which may increase the value of the yuan. The People’s Bank of China said today in its 2008 annual report that the yuan’s exchange rate will be kept at a “reasonable and balanced” level. “Asia is at a tipping point where you’ll see a transition from export-led growth to domestic-demand growth,” Standard Chartered’s Henderson said. “We’ve already seen the first stage with a huge focus on domestic demand, a huge focus on consumption. The next stage is surely a move away from a cheap currency policy toward stronger trade-weighted currency appreciation in order to dampen consumer costs.”
The pound may have to weaken for the U.K.’s economy to recover from recession, Paribas’ Redeker said. GDP contracted 0.8 percent from the in the second quarter from the first, twice as much as economists forecast. “When you look at the situation in the British economy, it is very obvious you need substantial contributions from net exports in the next five to 10 years,” Redeker said. “That means the U.K. will have to adjust its cost structures drastically or operate with a much cheaper exchange rate.”
The dollar has weakened this year against 13 of the 16 most-traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Currencies tied to commodities and growth, such as the Brazilian real, South African rand and Australian and New Zealand dollars, gained the most against the greenback. U.S. Treasury notes and bills due in one year and less returned investors 0.4 percent this year, according to a Merrill Lynch & Co. index. “We are still in the camp that the dollar has further downside to go,” said Callum Henderson, global head of currency strategy at Standard Chartered in Singapore. “You’ll see a renewed period of downside for the dollar, but more positively, upside for high-yielding emerging market and developed market currencies.”
European Recovery
Gross domestic product in Germany, Europe’s biggest economy, unexpectedly grew 0.3 percent in the second quarter from the first, the nation’s statistics office said Aug. 13, bringing an end to its worst recession in more than a half-century. France’s economy, the second largest among the 16 nations that use the euro, also unexpectedly exited a recession in the second quarter, with GDP rising 0.3 percent, the nation’s statistics office also said on Aug. 13. The U.S. economy shrank 0.3 percent in the second quarter from the first three months of the year.
“In Europe, we have a much stronger economic outcome as many people believed,” said Hans-Guenter Redeker, the London- based global head of currency strategy at BNP Paribas SA. “German and French growth numbers have been a pleasant surprise for the second quarter.” Redeker said the euro, which gained 2.3 percent against the dollar this year, may strengthen to $1.50. The euro traded at $1.4296 at 7:08 a.m. today in Tokyo.
JPMorgan’s Patterson said there are better ways to take advantage of increased risk appetite as the global economy recovers than investing in the euro. “I look at the euro and I say the worries about the deficit and U.S. debt are mirrored in Europe,” Patterson said. “The euro doesn’t have the same reserve currency support that the dollar has. For a short-term trade, it’s fine. For a long- term diversification tool, I’d stay away from it.”
Reserve Role
The U.S. dollar may weaken as governments worldwide reduce the currency’s role in their foreign-exchange reserves, said David Wyss, chief economist at Standard & Poor’s. “We do expect a bit of dollar weakness and expect the dollar won’t be as dominant in world reserves as it has been in the recent past,” he said today in Sydney at a conference. “It will still be the biggest reserve currency but we will go back to a more normal distribution, back to more like what we had 10 or 15 years ago when the dollar was 70 percent of reserves instead of 90 percent of reserves.”
China’s Domestic Demand
Strategists also said China’s ability to continue growth will depend on the nation changing from an economy driven by exports to one expanding on domestic demand, which may increase the value of the yuan. The People’s Bank of China said today in its 2008 annual report that the yuan’s exchange rate will be kept at a “reasonable and balanced” level. “Asia is at a tipping point where you’ll see a transition from export-led growth to domestic-demand growth,” Standard Chartered’s Henderson said. “We’ve already seen the first stage with a huge focus on domestic demand, a huge focus on consumption. The next stage is surely a move away from a cheap currency policy toward stronger trade-weighted currency appreciation in order to dampen consumer costs.”
The pound may have to weaken for the U.K.’s economy to recover from recession, Paribas’ Redeker said. GDP contracted 0.8 percent from the in the second quarter from the first, twice as much as economists forecast. “When you look at the situation in the British economy, it is very obvious you need substantial contributions from net exports in the next five to 10 years,” Redeker said. “That means the U.K. will have to adjust its cost structures drastically or operate with a much cheaper exchange rate.”
Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook
American Petroleum Institute (API) released its report showing that U.S. oil inventories climbed 4.3 million barrels last week.
USD Crude Oil Inventories actual : +0.2M vs prediction -1.5M.
Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Aug 26 09 06:29 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil retreated sharply after hitting 75.0 and touching of 71.75 minor support suggests that an intraday outlook is in place. Outlook is turned neutral for the moment. Crude oil is near to an important long term fibonacci resistance at 76.77 (38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and upside momentum is somewhat diminishing. But there is no clear sign of topping yet. Another rise might still be seen as long as near term trend line support (now at 67.00) holds. Above 75 will target 76.77 next. However, break of the trendline will be an important signal that rise from 58.32 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside to 65.23 for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, recent development indicates that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that such rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Hence, stronger resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally. On the downside, break of 65.23 support will now be an important signal that crude oil has already topped out and will turn focus back to 58.32 key support for confirmation.
USD Crude Oil Inventories actual : +0.2M vs prediction -1.5M.
Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Aug 26 09 06:29 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil retreated sharply after hitting 75.0 and touching of 71.75 minor support suggests that an intraday outlook is in place. Outlook is turned neutral for the moment. Crude oil is near to an important long term fibonacci resistance at 76.77 (38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and upside momentum is somewhat diminishing. But there is no clear sign of topping yet. Another rise might still be seen as long as near term trend line support (now at 67.00) holds. Above 75 will target 76.77 next. However, break of the trendline will be an important signal that rise from 58.32 has completed and will flip intraday bias back to the downside to 65.23 for confirmation.
In the bigger picture, recent development indicates that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Nevertheless, there is no change in the view that such rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Hence, stronger resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally. On the downside, break of 65.23 support will now be an important signal that crude oil has already topped out and will turn focus back to 58.32 key support for confirmation.
Gold Daily Technical Outlook
Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Aug 26 09 06:30 ET
Comex Gold (GC)
Short term outlook in Gold remains rather mixed for the moment as it's still bounded in choppy sideway trading. On the upside, above 959.9 will affirm the case that rise from 904.8 is resuming for a test on 974.3 first. On the downside, below 931.3 will indicate that fall from 974.3 is still in progress and has resumed for a test of 904.8 support.
In the bigger picture, price actions in gold remains choppily bounded in converging range between 865 and 1007.7. Where there are some possible developments inside such range, there is no change in the preferred view that it's merely consolidation to larger rise from 681, and should be near to completion. On the downside, in case of another fall, strong support should be seen at 904.8 support level and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. On the upside, break of 974.3 resistance will serve as the first alert that rise from 681 is resuming and will turn focus to 1007.7 key resistance level for confirmation.
Comex Gold (GC)
Short term outlook in Gold remains rather mixed for the moment as it's still bounded in choppy sideway trading. On the upside, above 959.9 will affirm the case that rise from 904.8 is resuming for a test on 974.3 first. On the downside, below 931.3 will indicate that fall from 974.3 is still in progress and has resumed for a test of 904.8 support.
In the bigger picture, price actions in gold remains choppily bounded in converging range between 865 and 1007.7. Where there are some possible developments inside such range, there is no change in the preferred view that it's merely consolidation to larger rise from 681, and should be near to completion. On the downside, in case of another fall, strong support should be seen at 904.8 support level and the case of deep fall to 865 is not likely. On the upside, break of 974.3 resistance will serve as the first alert that rise from 681 is resuming and will turn focus to 1007.7 key resistance level for confirmation.
Technical Analysis: Benchmark Indexes at ‘Key Bullish’ Levels
(Bloomberg) -- Benchmark indexes for U.S., Japanese and European stocks are close to breaking “long-term bullish” levels, according to analysts at Credit Suisse Group AG who use price charts to make forecasts. “The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index held its ground just below the 377-day moving average,” technical analysts at the Swiss bank including Zurich-based Rolf Bertschi wrote in a report today. The benchmark index for U.S. stocks rose to 1,028 at yesterday’s close, the highest since Oct. 6. That’s about 29 points below the 377-day moving average, a Fibonacci number which is currently at 1,057.04 according to Bloomberg data. A break would be “long-term bullish,” Bertschi wrote.
Fibonacci analysts use a system pioneered by 13th century mathematician Leonardo Pisano, who discerned ratios from proportions found in nature. He is best known for the discovery of the Fibonacci numbers commonly referred to as the Fibonacci sequence. After two starting values, each number is the sum of the two numbers before it. The next Fibonacci moving average for Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is at 1,215.46, Bloomberg data show.“The Nikkei 225 Stock Average and the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 Index are trading at their 377-day averages,” Bertschi wrote. Such levels are set at 10,694 and 2,820.71 respectively, according to Bloomberg data. “A break of these levels would have the same bullish implications as for the S&P 500 index,” the analysts added. All three indexes “are at key levels.”
The index of 225 companies traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange closed at 10,639.71 today. The benchmark index for euro-region equities traded at 2,795.86 as of 10:22 a.m. in London.Moving averages show the average value of a security’s price over a set period and are commonly used to define areas of possible support, or floor, and resistance, or ceiling, in technical analysis.
Fibonacci analysts use a system pioneered by 13th century mathematician Leonardo Pisano, who discerned ratios from proportions found in nature. He is best known for the discovery of the Fibonacci numbers commonly referred to as the Fibonacci sequence. After two starting values, each number is the sum of the two numbers before it. The next Fibonacci moving average for Standard & Poor’s 500 Index is at 1,215.46, Bloomberg data show.“The Nikkei 225 Stock Average and the Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 Index are trading at their 377-day averages,” Bertschi wrote. Such levels are set at 10,694 and 2,820.71 respectively, according to Bloomberg data. “A break of these levels would have the same bullish implications as for the S&P 500 index,” the analysts added. All three indexes “are at key levels.”
The index of 225 companies traded on the Tokyo Stock Exchange closed at 10,639.71 today. The benchmark index for euro-region equities traded at 2,795.86 as of 10:22 a.m. in London.Moving averages show the average value of a security’s price over a set period and are commonly used to define areas of possible support, or floor, and resistance, or ceiling, in technical analysis.
Technical Analysis : China’s Stock Index May Test Aug. 4 High
(Bloomberg) -- China’s benchmark stock index may challenge a 14-month high on Aug. 4 after finding “buying support” at 2,750 points, CIMB-GK Research said.The Shanghai Composite Index must first overcome two “major resistance trend lines” at 3,130 and 3,400, CIMB analysts Nigel Foo and Kong Seh Siang wrote in a report yesterday. The gauge is down 16 percent from the 14-month high on Aug. 4 of 3,471.44.The Shanghai index fell to as low as 2,761.40 on Aug. 19, briefly tumbling more than 20 percent below the high, the threshold for a so-called bear market. The index has retreated 15 percent this month, the most among the 89 benchmarks tracked globally by Bloomberg, amid concern the government will rein in record lending and as some companies reported losses.
The 2,750 level “should be a medium-term bottom for the index,” the analysts said. “The index has the potential to challenge the August peak but needs to overcome two major resistance trend lines.”A drop below 2,750, the 50 percent retracement of the gains between March and August, may signal a “medium-term downtrend” and the end of a rally that started in October.For other markets in Asia, a so-called minor wave may have started last week after the MSCI Asia-excluding Japan Index found support between 410 and 420, the analysts added. They have a target range of 458 to 486 for the index, they wrote.Support is a level where buy orders may be clustered and resistance is where there may be sell orders.
The 2,750 level “should be a medium-term bottom for the index,” the analysts said. “The index has the potential to challenge the August peak but needs to overcome two major resistance trend lines.”A drop below 2,750, the 50 percent retracement of the gains between March and August, may signal a “medium-term downtrend” and the end of a rally that started in October.For other markets in Asia, a so-called minor wave may have started last week after the MSCI Asia-excluding Japan Index found support between 410 and 420, the analysts added. They have a target range of 458 to 486 for the index, they wrote.Support is a level where buy orders may be clustered and resistance is where there may be sell orders.
Commodity and Futures Trading 1-2-3
By: Charles_Maley
InvestorEducation
I would like to start with a simple yet very powerful concept. I am sure that over time we will elaborate much further on this simple concept but it seems appropriate to start here.
It all starts with the 4 possibilities. Once you put on a trade only four things can happen:
1- You can win big
2- You can win a little
3- You can lose big
4- You can lose a little
The goal is to eliminate number 3. What do we do?
Number #1- First form a hypothesis.
Your hypothesis can be as simple as this.
1- You (or your system) think the stock or future is going up.
2- You (or your system) think the stock or future is going down.
How you arrive at this conclusion may be based on your analysis of fundamental indicators, technical indicators or a trading system. You might even be in agreement with someone else’s analysis. For example, you might agree with Morgan Stanley’s opinion that crude oil is going much higher.
However, what you do next is extremely important.
You need to determine how much money you are going to risk on this particular trade. The easiest way to do this is to use a percentage of your account value. For example, if your account value is $100,000 and you are going to risk 1% of this value, you are going to risk $1000. You do this because your hypothesis might be wrong or you might be just early. By defining and accepting your risk, you hopefully eliminate the possibility of the big loss.
Number #2-The trend should confirm your hypothesis
This is done for two reasons:
1- If you are trading against the trend, you may not be in sync with your hypothesis and you either going to get stopped out often or suffer a big loss.
2- If you are trading with the trend, you know anything can happen. You are positioning yourself for the possibility of winning big.
Winning big is what will eventually make you a successful trader.
Number #3-You think in probabilities for two reasons:
1- It is unreasonable to believe that every individual trade is going to be profitable. It is equally unreasonable to believe that you will be able to identify only the successful trades. However, each trade has a probability of being profitable. The way to determine how your trading is doing is by evaluating a series of trades over time.
2- Evaluating your trading over a series of trades will also confirm or not confirm your hypothesis. If after a series of trades you are losing money it might be time to review your hypothesis.
Charles Maley
www.viewpointsofacommoditytrader.com
InvestorEducation
I would like to start with a simple yet very powerful concept. I am sure that over time we will elaborate much further on this simple concept but it seems appropriate to start here.
It all starts with the 4 possibilities. Once you put on a trade only four things can happen:
1- You can win big
2- You can win a little
3- You can lose big
4- You can lose a little
The goal is to eliminate number 3. What do we do?
Number #1- First form a hypothesis.
Your hypothesis can be as simple as this.
1- You (or your system) think the stock or future is going up.
2- You (or your system) think the stock or future is going down.
How you arrive at this conclusion may be based on your analysis of fundamental indicators, technical indicators or a trading system. You might even be in agreement with someone else’s analysis. For example, you might agree with Morgan Stanley’s opinion that crude oil is going much higher.
However, what you do next is extremely important.
You need to determine how much money you are going to risk on this particular trade. The easiest way to do this is to use a percentage of your account value. For example, if your account value is $100,000 and you are going to risk 1% of this value, you are going to risk $1000. You do this because your hypothesis might be wrong or you might be just early. By defining and accepting your risk, you hopefully eliminate the possibility of the big loss.
Number #2-The trend should confirm your hypothesis
This is done for two reasons:
1- If you are trading against the trend, you may not be in sync with your hypothesis and you either going to get stopped out often or suffer a big loss.
2- If you are trading with the trend, you know anything can happen. You are positioning yourself for the possibility of winning big.
Winning big is what will eventually make you a successful trader.
Number #3-You think in probabilities for two reasons:
1- It is unreasonable to believe that every individual trade is going to be profitable. It is equally unreasonable to believe that you will be able to identify only the successful trades. However, each trade has a probability of being profitable. The way to determine how your trading is doing is by evaluating a series of trades over time.
2- Evaluating your trading over a series of trades will also confirm or not confirm your hypothesis. If after a series of trades you are losing money it might be time to review your hypothesis.
Charles Maley
www.viewpointsofacommoditytrader.com
Peak Oil, Crude Oil Supply Data Doesn't Lie
By: Puru_Saxena
Commodities
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleENERGY - After the epic crash last year, the price of oil is stabilising and it should rise exponentially over the following years. Over the past year, global consumption has stayed weak, however once the economy recovers, crude oil should resume its secular bull-market.Despite the 'demand destruction' hype, it is interesting to note that during this severe global recession, worldwide oil usage has dropped by a minuscule 2.7%. So, what will happen when the world comes out of this recession? Who will rise up to the challenge and meet our insatiable thirst for energy? These are critical questions not many are willing to ask.
According to the US Department of Energy, liquid fuel demand in the developed nations peaked in August 2005 at 41.89 million barrels per day. Since then, it has plunged by 3.6 million barrels per day to 38.27 million barrels per day. However, you may want to note that despite these tough economic conditions, consumption has been extremely resilient in the emerging world. For instance, demand in the developing countries peaked in October 2008 at 46.33 million barrels per day and it is down by only 0.36 million barrels per day! I don't know about you but I am amazed that the worst global recession in decades has barely managed to shrink energy demand in the developing world. Whilst this is wonderful news for the energy investor, it is a terrible sign for society.
At present, our world is using up roughly 84 million barrels of liquid fuels per day and for the moment at least, there is sufficient supply to meet demand (Figure 1). However, when economic activity picks up, it won't take much for demand to zip right past supply. Remember, it is much easier to increase usage, but it takes a long time to ramp up production. So, unless this is a permanent global recession (which I doubt), it is inevitable that the price of oil will go up significantly over the medium to long-term.
Puru Saxena publishes Money Matters, a monthly economic report, which highlights extraordinary investment opportunities in all major markets. In addition to the monthly report, subscribers also receive “Weekly Updates” covering the recent market action. Money Matters is available by subscription from www.purusaxena.com.
Commodities
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleENERGY - After the epic crash last year, the price of oil is stabilising and it should rise exponentially over the following years. Over the past year, global consumption has stayed weak, however once the economy recovers, crude oil should resume its secular bull-market.Despite the 'demand destruction' hype, it is interesting to note that during this severe global recession, worldwide oil usage has dropped by a minuscule 2.7%. So, what will happen when the world comes out of this recession? Who will rise up to the challenge and meet our insatiable thirst for energy? These are critical questions not many are willing to ask.
According to the US Department of Energy, liquid fuel demand in the developed nations peaked in August 2005 at 41.89 million barrels per day. Since then, it has plunged by 3.6 million barrels per day to 38.27 million barrels per day. However, you may want to note that despite these tough economic conditions, consumption has been extremely resilient in the emerging world. For instance, demand in the developing countries peaked in October 2008 at 46.33 million barrels per day and it is down by only 0.36 million barrels per day! I don't know about you but I am amazed that the worst global recession in decades has barely managed to shrink energy demand in the developing world. Whilst this is wonderful news for the energy investor, it is a terrible sign for society.
At present, our world is using up roughly 84 million barrels of liquid fuels per day and for the moment at least, there is sufficient supply to meet demand (Figure 1). However, when economic activity picks up, it won't take much for demand to zip right past supply. Remember, it is much easier to increase usage, but it takes a long time to ramp up production. So, unless this is a permanent global recession (which I doubt), it is inevitable that the price of oil will go up significantly over the medium to long-term.
Puru Saxena publishes Money Matters, a monthly economic report, which highlights extraordinary investment opportunities in all major markets. In addition to the monthly report, subscribers also receive “Weekly Updates” covering the recent market action. Money Matters is available by subscription from www.purusaxena.com.
The Stock Market Bear May Be Officially Dead For Now
By Nilus Mattive on August 26, 2009 | More Posts By Nilus Mattive | Author's Website
It seems as though just about everyone has now completely written off the bear market as “so last quarter.” Isn’t it amazing what a couple months of upticks can do?
Don’t get me wrong. I’m as happy as anyone that this rally has had staying power. It means my favorite dividend stocks are increasing in value!But I also like to keep the markets in perspective. That’s why today - while everyone seems more focused on the immediate gains to be had - I want to revisit the bear market we just went through and compare it to past periods of stock weakness.Plus, I’ll also tell you how this current rally fits alongside past market recoveries. And I’ll show you how much more upside we should expect.
“Wait, Are You Saying the Bear Market Is Officially Over Then?”
That’s probably your first question. And my answer is that - yes, technically at least - the bear market in stocks is over.I say that because the standard definition of a bear or bull is a 20 percent change off the market’s previous high or low.
Based on that definition, the most recent bear market began on July 9, 2008, when the S&P 500 index (^GSPC: 1028.00 0.00 0.00%) closed 20.5 percent lower than its high of 1565.15 made on October 9, 2007.Then, on March 6, 2009, it reached an intraday low of 666.79. If we’re going by closing data, however, the previous day - March 5 - was the actual low at 682.55.So from the October 9, 2007, high through the March 5, 2009, close, the bear market in the S&P 500 produced a 56.4 percent loss. And it lasted about 17 months.
How does that stack up to past bears? Take a look and see:
Bear Markets
Start End Start Price End Price Months S&P 500 Change
03/06/37 04/29/42 18.68 7.47 62 -60%
05/29/46 06/14/49 19.25 13.55 37 -30%
08/02/56 10/22/57 49.64 38.98 45 -21%
12/12/61 06/27/62 97.62 52.32 6 -28%
02/09/66 10/07/66 94.06 73.20 8 -22%
11/29/68 05/26/70 108.37 69.29 18 -36%
01/11/73 10/03/74 120.24 62.28 21 -48%
11/28/80 08/12/82 140.52 102.42 20 -27%
08/25/87 12/04/87 336.77 223.92 3 -34%
07/16/90 10/11/90 368.95 295.46 3 -20%
03/24/00 10/09/02 1527.46 776.76 31 -49%
Average 20 -34%
Source: Standard & Poor’s Index Services
As you can see, stocks recently took a drubbing that was far worse than nearly any past bear market, except for the one in the early 30s. And even that period wasn’t a heck of a lot worse.On the other hand, you can see that this bear was actually shorter than is typical.I chalk that up to the massive interventions our government conducted. (Whether we should agree with those interventions is beside the point.)
Okay, But Why Am I Also Saying a New Bull Has Begun?
Again, it all comes down to standard definitions. Since that low on March 5, 2009 … the S&P 500 has rallied far more than 20 percent, which is a bull market.In fact, through yesterday’s close … this bull has produced a very respectable gain of 50.3 percent.
Let’s see how that compares to historical bulls …
Bull Markets
Start End Start Price End Price Months S&P 500 Change
06/01/32 03/06/37 4.40 18.68 57 325%
04/29/42 05/29/46 7.47 19.25 49 158%
06/14/49 08/02/56 13.55 49.64 86 266%
10/22/57 12/12/61 38.98 72.64 50 86%
06/27/62 02/09/66 52.32 94.06 43 80%
10/07/66 11/29/68 73.20 108.37 26 48%
05/26/70 01/11/73 69.29 120.24 32 74%
10/03/74 11/28/80 62.28 140.52 74 126%
08/12/82 08/25/87 102.42 336.77 60 229%
12/04/87 07/16/90 223.92 368.95 31 65%
10/11/90 03/24/00 295.46 1527.46 113 417%
10/09/02 10/09/07 776.76 1565.12 60 101%
Average 57 164%
Source: Standard & Poor’s Index Services
As you can see, the average bull market has handed investors a 164 percent gain.
If you apply that to the closing low of 682.55, you’ll get an S&P 500 of 1801.93!
That would mean stock investors stand to make another 75.7 percent from current levels strictly based on averages.Of Course, Nothing Is Guaranteed! And Let’s Not Forget Where We Are Today …Obviously, I’m just having a little fun with numbers here. There’s no guarantee that we’ll see stocks move higher at all.
In fact, it’s important to remember that “bull” and “bear” markets are just arbitrary ways of slicing and dicing the market. They’re snapshots with contrived parameters. And they’re more indicative of what a trader could have gotten with perfect foresight than what the typical stock investor earns.Case in point: Unless we see another MAJOR rally between now and December, the S&P 500 will have posted a substantial loss for the entire decade.
Nilus mattive
Most investors would simply call THAT one big bear market!
Never forget that our economy is only beginning to show signs of a recovery.
We continue to face high unemployment … a fragile lending system … and a very important psychological shift on the part of consumers.The bear may be officially dead for now … but he can return just as swiftly and without much warning.This is precisely why I urge you not to place too much importance on short-term market moves or worry that you missed out on substantial gains during this rally.It’s always possible to time things more perfectly. And it’s even easier to take on more risk when everything is headed higher.But I’d much rather see you keep a cool head and invest in companies that pay out steadily rising dividends.
Sure, they still appreciate substantially when the market rises. However, they also hand you solid income even when stocks drift lower or trade sideways for months or years at a time.To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive.
It seems as though just about everyone has now completely written off the bear market as “so last quarter.” Isn’t it amazing what a couple months of upticks can do?
Don’t get me wrong. I’m as happy as anyone that this rally has had staying power. It means my favorite dividend stocks are increasing in value!But I also like to keep the markets in perspective. That’s why today - while everyone seems more focused on the immediate gains to be had - I want to revisit the bear market we just went through and compare it to past periods of stock weakness.Plus, I’ll also tell you how this current rally fits alongside past market recoveries. And I’ll show you how much more upside we should expect.
“Wait, Are You Saying the Bear Market Is Officially Over Then?”
That’s probably your first question. And my answer is that - yes, technically at least - the bear market in stocks is over.I say that because the standard definition of a bear or bull is a 20 percent change off the market’s previous high or low.
Based on that definition, the most recent bear market began on July 9, 2008, when the S&P 500 index (^GSPC: 1028.00 0.00 0.00%) closed 20.5 percent lower than its high of 1565.15 made on October 9, 2007.Then, on March 6, 2009, it reached an intraday low of 666.79. If we’re going by closing data, however, the previous day - March 5 - was the actual low at 682.55.So from the October 9, 2007, high through the March 5, 2009, close, the bear market in the S&P 500 produced a 56.4 percent loss. And it lasted about 17 months.
How does that stack up to past bears? Take a look and see:
Bear Markets
Start End Start Price End Price Months S&P 500 Change
03/06/37 04/29/42 18.68 7.47 62 -60%
05/29/46 06/14/49 19.25 13.55 37 -30%
08/02/56 10/22/57 49.64 38.98 45 -21%
12/12/61 06/27/62 97.62 52.32 6 -28%
02/09/66 10/07/66 94.06 73.20 8 -22%
11/29/68 05/26/70 108.37 69.29 18 -36%
01/11/73 10/03/74 120.24 62.28 21 -48%
11/28/80 08/12/82 140.52 102.42 20 -27%
08/25/87 12/04/87 336.77 223.92 3 -34%
07/16/90 10/11/90 368.95 295.46 3 -20%
03/24/00 10/09/02 1527.46 776.76 31 -49%
Average 20 -34%
Source: Standard & Poor’s Index Services
As you can see, stocks recently took a drubbing that was far worse than nearly any past bear market, except for the one in the early 30s. And even that period wasn’t a heck of a lot worse.On the other hand, you can see that this bear was actually shorter than is typical.I chalk that up to the massive interventions our government conducted. (Whether we should agree with those interventions is beside the point.)
Okay, But Why Am I Also Saying a New Bull Has Begun?
Again, it all comes down to standard definitions. Since that low on March 5, 2009 … the S&P 500 has rallied far more than 20 percent, which is a bull market.In fact, through yesterday’s close … this bull has produced a very respectable gain of 50.3 percent.
Let’s see how that compares to historical bulls …
Bull Markets
Start End Start Price End Price Months S&P 500 Change
06/01/32 03/06/37 4.40 18.68 57 325%
04/29/42 05/29/46 7.47 19.25 49 158%
06/14/49 08/02/56 13.55 49.64 86 266%
10/22/57 12/12/61 38.98 72.64 50 86%
06/27/62 02/09/66 52.32 94.06 43 80%
10/07/66 11/29/68 73.20 108.37 26 48%
05/26/70 01/11/73 69.29 120.24 32 74%
10/03/74 11/28/80 62.28 140.52 74 126%
08/12/82 08/25/87 102.42 336.77 60 229%
12/04/87 07/16/90 223.92 368.95 31 65%
10/11/90 03/24/00 295.46 1527.46 113 417%
10/09/02 10/09/07 776.76 1565.12 60 101%
Average 57 164%
Source: Standard & Poor’s Index Services
As you can see, the average bull market has handed investors a 164 percent gain.
If you apply that to the closing low of 682.55, you’ll get an S&P 500 of 1801.93!
That would mean stock investors stand to make another 75.7 percent from current levels strictly based on averages.Of Course, Nothing Is Guaranteed! And Let’s Not Forget Where We Are Today …Obviously, I’m just having a little fun with numbers here. There’s no guarantee that we’ll see stocks move higher at all.
In fact, it’s important to remember that “bull” and “bear” markets are just arbitrary ways of slicing and dicing the market. They’re snapshots with contrived parameters. And they’re more indicative of what a trader could have gotten with perfect foresight than what the typical stock investor earns.Case in point: Unless we see another MAJOR rally between now and December, the S&P 500 will have posted a substantial loss for the entire decade.
Nilus mattive
Most investors would simply call THAT one big bear market!
Never forget that our economy is only beginning to show signs of a recovery.
We continue to face high unemployment … a fragile lending system … and a very important psychological shift on the part of consumers.The bear may be officially dead for now … but he can return just as swiftly and without much warning.This is precisely why I urge you not to place too much importance on short-term market moves or worry that you missed out on substantial gains during this rally.It’s always possible to time things more perfectly. And it’s even easier to take on more risk when everything is headed higher.But I’d much rather see you keep a cool head and invest in companies that pay out steadily rising dividends.
Sure, they still appreciate substantially when the market rises. However, they also hand you solid income even when stocks drift lower or trade sideways for months or years at a time.To avoid conflicts of interest, Weiss Research and its staff do not hold positions in companies recommended in MaM, nor do we accept any compensation for such recommendations. The comments, graphs, forecasts, and indices published in MaM are based upon data whose accuracy is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Performance returns cited are derived from our best estimates but must be considered hypothetical in as much as we do not track the actual prices investors pay or receive.
Aussie & Cad Signal for a Weak $
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com
Aussie
4 Hour chart trend: Short possibilities. Main price points: 0.8153, and 0.8476. Looking for: Move lower
On the 4 hour aussie chart, prices made a small turning point around 76.4%, discussed yesterday, which must hold for a possible down-trend. From a technical view, aussie should trade lower over the next few sessions, because the move up from 0.8153 low has a personality of a corrective leg and not impulsive one. Corrections are usually slow and choppy with many overlaps, and are always against the larger trend so the move lower on the aud/Usd chart, approaching wave I) support should not be a surprise. The wave count will be valid as long as the the 0.8476 top holds.
Cad
4 Hour chart trend: Long possibilities. Main price points: 1.0630, and 1.1123. Looking for: Move higher
Usd/Cad traded lower recently, through 61.8% area and found the latest support at 76.4% Fibonacci support area, which may be a key for a move higher into a red wave III/C. If this is the case, wave II/B is be completed around the current support with a flat correction, where black wave B) traded above the start of wave A) leg. Traders with a long bias may be looking higher as long as the market trades above the 1.0630 support. Any break of this support will invalidate the wave count.
Aussie
4 Hour chart trend: Short possibilities. Main price points: 0.8153, and 0.8476. Looking for: Move lower
On the 4 hour aussie chart, prices made a small turning point around 76.4%, discussed yesterday, which must hold for a possible down-trend. From a technical view, aussie should trade lower over the next few sessions, because the move up from 0.8153 low has a personality of a corrective leg and not impulsive one. Corrections are usually slow and choppy with many overlaps, and are always against the larger trend so the move lower on the aud/Usd chart, approaching wave I) support should not be a surprise. The wave count will be valid as long as the the 0.8476 top holds.
Cad
4 Hour chart trend: Long possibilities. Main price points: 1.0630, and 1.1123. Looking for: Move higher
Usd/Cad traded lower recently, through 61.8% area and found the latest support at 76.4% Fibonacci support area, which may be a key for a move higher into a red wave III/C. If this is the case, wave II/B is be completed around the current support with a flat correction, where black wave B) traded above the start of wave A) leg. Traders with a long bias may be looking higher as long as the market trades above the 1.0630 support. Any break of this support will invalidate the wave count.
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