Saturday, September 12, 2009

US Stocks Get Retail, Inflation Data Next Week

(MarketWatch) -- As U.S. stocks seemingly continue their steady upward course, investors will next week turn to more economic data, including key readings on retail sales and inflation, and try to fine-tune expectations about the shape of the economic recovery.

"The market continues to look pretty good," said Ken Tower, market strategist at Quantitative Analysis Services. In spite of a slump on Friday, stocks rose strongly over the past week, and remain on firm footing so far in September, which historically has not been a good month for stocks.

http://www.marketwatch.com/m/Story/4d7b15c2-e079-46bf-a454-e3adfa9aecd5

U.S. Housing, EU Unemployment, Next Results: Europe Week Ahead

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=ag3ZMcBpC.tk

Clunkers’ Probably Boosted Retail Sales: U.S. Economy Preview

http://mobile.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2065100&sid=aPjsMz.iocrQ

US Stocks In Focus On Monday

(MarketWatch) -- Among the stocks likely to see active trading Monday are Pall Corp., Merck & Co., FedEx Corp. and Value Line Inc. Cano Petroleum Inc. (CFW) is projected to post a fiscal fourth-quarter loss of 2 cents a share, according to analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters. Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL) is forecast to post fiscal fourth-quarter earnings of 18 cents a share.

http://www.marketwatch.com/m/story/1512c8a1-d432-4d3a-9239-1e8c0eb14349/0

Back from beach, stock pickers see a cooler rise into 2010

(MarketWatch) -- Stock strategists, who left for summer vacations musing over the market's double-digit rebound, have returned with buffed-up forecasts that project an extended -- though cooler -- run for stocks. In their seasonal airing out of forecasts, investment strategists have spent the last few weeks tweaking projections for this year and taking a stab at next year's.

Most expect the S&P 500 ($SPX) to keep rising, with several anticipating the benchmark will end the year around 1,050 -- less than a 1% rise from current levels. The index of large-capitalization U.S. stocks has more to go in 2010, strategists say, but will also rise at a far slower pace than it marked this year.

http://www.marketwatch.com/m/Story/c1f01fb0-0a21-423e-a2cb-ebe148139168

US Dollar Predictions By Bank of Tokyo & Morgan Stanley

By Ye Xie and Morwenna Coniam(Bloomberg) -- The dollar may start to rise against the euro in the next few weeks as the recovery of the U.S. economy drives up yields on fixed-income assets, according to Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. The U.S. currency may “temporarily” weaken to $1.50 per euro before rebounding to $1.40 at year-end and $1.30 in 12 months, according to Derek Halpenny, European head of currency strategy in London at Japan’s largest bank by market value.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=afq3iRso_Y3k

By Daniel Tilles

Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar’s decline this year has further to run and may continue through 2010, according to Morgan Stanley. “We remain dollar bears,” Sophia Drossos, co-head of global foreign-exchange strategy, and Yilin Nie wrote yesterday in a report from New York. “We anticipate that dollar weakness has further to extend this year, and expect an additional 6 percent decline in the dollar against its main trading partners through the end of 2010. Looking ahead into 2011, we anticipate the Fed rate-hiking cycle will become advanced enough to offer support to the dollar.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aHTW9CrLy2xE

Put/Call Ratio Shows Stocks May Extend Rise: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Bearish options bets on U.S. stocks remain near the highest level since March, a signal that the steepest rally since the 1930s may continue, according to Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. The ratio of puts to calls on U.S. indexes and equity options averaged 0.89 in the five days through Sept. 8, little changed from the 0.91 average in the five days through March 9, when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index sank to a 12-year low. That shows investors remain pessimistic, Brown Brothers Harriman said, a positive signal to some technical analysts who track investor sentiment as a contrarian indicator.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aynoYI.vIgMY

Friday, September 11, 2009

Elliot Wave: FTSE 100 Hits 2009 Stocks Bull Market Target of 5000, What's Next?

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe FTSE 100 stock market index broke above 5,000 by closing at 5,004 for the first time since the financial collapse of September 2008.Whilst the highly vocal public perma bears have frightened much of the investing public into sitting on the sidelines, too frightened to commit and leaving the smart money to accumulate at rock bottom prices, readers following my analysis of the stealth stocks bull market will have been left with little doubt of where I expected the market to head with first a clear target for the bear market bottom at the start of the year confirmed in March, and then the subsequent stealth bull market mapped out throughout 2009 as the following illustrate before I get to where I expect the FTSE is headed to next.

Two possible outcomes -
a. That the fifth puts in a lower peak than the wave 3, which is significantly more bearish.
b. That we get some sideways drift (possible false break lower) before a sharp rally for a higher fifth into the target zone.
Despite the increasingly bearish technical indicators at this point I continue to march with the bull market and favour outcome b. ahead of a more serious correction that would first 1. target target the main support trendline and 2. 8900 Previous Peak.



















The FTSE 100 index as originally anticipated at the start of the year is showing relative strength against the Dow Jones, this is most evident in the fact that the FTSE has achieved its price target for 2009 of 5,000 ahead of schedule by several weeks, whereas the Dow Jones remains several hundred points short of its target range of between 9,750 and 10,000. The elliott wave pattern shows that the FTSE has broken above the wave 3 peak and is into its final fifth towards a new high which is ahead of schedule against a projected termination point for this rally of early October. What this suggests is that the FTSE could drift sideways for several weeks waiting for the DJIA to play catchup i.e. I see very limited upside remaining in the FTSE for the rest of this year!

Elliot Wave: US Unemployment Rate & the 10-year Cycle Peak

By: Clif_Droke
Talk is now circulating in financial quarters of a new “mini-bubble” in the making. Apparently the unbounded rise in the stock market is reviving fears of another collapse like the one suffered last year. Another reason that the “hated rally” has sparked fears is that we’re about a year removed from the final “hard down” phase of last year’s 6-year cycle collapse. September 2008 witnessed the financial markets crater and the intensity of last year’s fear was unmatched in our lifetime. Not even the 1972-74 bear market, which was the worst since the Great Depression, witnessed a comparable level of fear.

W.D. Gann used to emphasize the importance of anniversary dates when it came to financial market analysis. The 1-year anniversary of an important market event is by far the most pivotal such date since the collective memory of the investing public is rather limited. Most market participants can still vividly recall the “great unwinding” of September-November last year. The vividness of that primal fear is still strong, hence the reason for the widespread expectation of another crash.
W.D. Gann was correct to attach importance to anniversary dates and he was familiar with the “echo” effect of the investing public’s psyche in response to major market events. The intense fear of 2008 has been gradually eroding all year and while a measure of fear is still discernable today, it will be eventually replaced by something akin to enthusiasm at the next major top.
www.clifdroke.com

Elliot Wave: Eur/Usd Ready for a Correction?!

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com

4 Hour chart trend: Mixed. Main price point: 1.4176, and 1.4599. Looking for: Wave 4)
On the four hour eur/Usd chart, prices hit new highs during the Wednesday session, as expected with a black wave V) top at the 1.4599 area. Wave C of a blue wave 3) leg should now be completed, and a move lower into a corrective wave 4) is expected. Traders, however, need to be patient about the possible move to the short side as long as the market trades above the black trend-line of the diagonal, shown below. As such, the market needs to trade back below the trend-line, which will confirm that a wave 3) top is really in place. Then we will start to look for a three wave A, B, C move down near to the lower support line of the diagonal.

Daily Dow Jones/Forex/Gold Technical Analysis

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade | Sep 11 09 04:57 GMT |
EUR/USD
Today's support: - 1.4565, 1.4529, 1.4477 и 1.4442(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.4418, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.4400. Break of the latter would result in 1.4371. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.4349. Continuation will give 1.4312.Today's resistance: - 1.4647(main). Break would give 1.4670, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.4693. Break of the latter would result in 1.4712. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.4738. Continuation will give 1.4755.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 91.12(main). Break would bring 90.93, where correction is possible. Then 90.74, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 90.61. If a strong impulse, we would see 90.31. Continuation would give 90.08.
Today's resistance: - 92.27(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 92.53, where also a correction may be. Then 92.78. If a strong impulse, we would see 93.22. Continuation will give 93.48 and 93.63.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9573.75 and 9541.40(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9514.70, where correction also can be. Then follows 9489.37. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9452.62 Continuation will bring 9410.62 and 9364.20.Today's resistance: - 9646.77(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9672.28, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9683.66, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9717.37. Continuation would bring 9756.56, 9787.40 and 9812.77.

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex
Sterling : Pound broke above its weekly trendline at around 1.65 levels and is staying above that. It needs to stay above 1.65 to maintain bullish bias otherwise the outlook would still remain consolidative. Shorts to be favoured if cable maintains below 1.6500 levels again.(GBP/USD 1.6550) . Neutral
Aud : Aud maintains the bullish bias. Buying at dips close to important supports remains the best strategy in the current market scenario.Only a continuous move below 0.8200 would break the trendline and stand bearish for the pair. (AUD/USD -0.8640) Bullish .Gold : We still maintain buying gold on dips close to $975 - $980 dollars . Medium term target comes around $1025-30 levels.(GOLD $1001.40)Bullish.
Dollar Index : The Dollar Index (basket against 6 currencies with EUR accounting for 57% of the basket) needs to break the levels of 79.50 to maintain strength again otherwise rangebound. It could bottom close to 75.50 levels. (Dollar Index - 76.60).Neutral

Hang Seng Index Rally to Falter at 21,000: Technical Analysis

Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index will struggle to extend gains beyond the 21,000 level amid declining market turnover and in the absence of any positive economic news, Fulbright Securities’ Francis Lun said. The gauge has risen through the 21,000 mark seven times since the start of August only to give back gains by day’s end or during the following day’s trade. The Hang Seng rose to as high as 21,322.55 yesterday before sliding in the final hour of trade to close at 21,069.56.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aJD6EgeV0A_Y

Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Saham IHSG 11-09-2009

Research RBS Asia Sec Singapore : Buy BBCA target Rp 5,200

Research RBS Asia Sec Singapore : Buy UNTR target Rp 16,500

Research RBS Asia Sec Singapore: Sell BUMI target Rp 2,400

Research CIMB-GK Sec: Outperform ADRO target Rp 2,000

Research RBS Asia Sec Singapore: Buy PTBA target Rp 15,400

Research RBS Asia Sec Singapore: Hold ITMG target Rp 25,000

Research RBS Asia Sec Singapore: Buy ADRO target Rp 1,600

Research Mandiri Sec: Buy INDY target Rp 3,200

Cermati Saham Suparma
HARGA saham PT Suparma Tbk (SPMA) dikabarkan bakal diangkat ke level Rp 300-400, seiring momentum membaiknya kinerja perseroan. Menurut sumber Investor Daily, penjualan kertas perseroan melonjak tajam karena mendapat pesanan dari Uni Emirat Arab. Selain itu, kata dia, adanya kabar bahwa emiten akan memproduksi kertas tissue sebanyak 15 ton per tahun juga bakal berdampak positif

Saham Alumindo Menuju Rp 1.000
SEJUMLAH konsorsium broker tengah mengakumulasi saham PT Alumindo Light Metal Industry Tbk (ALMI). Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, harga ALMI bakal terangkat menembus level Rp 1.000 dalam jangka pendek. Perseroan telah menggandeng perusahaan dari Tiongkok untuk memperluas pasarnya di Asia.
Selain itu, peningkatan produksi menjadi 144 ribu ton per tahun juga berdampak positif.

IHSG Dibuka Naik 0,92 Poin.
Pergerakan IHSG pada perdagangan Jumat (11/9) dibuka naik 0,92 poin (0,04%) ke level 2.412,78 yang mendapat dorongan dari bursa Wall Street yang menguat kemarin meskipun ada potensi koreksi. IHSG capai tertinggi 2,425.389 (pukul 10.00 WIB) mengikuti kenaikan indeks saham DJIA +80.26 di 9,627.48 semalam. Harga minyak capai diatas $72/barel, emas $999.80 di sesi Asia hari ini. GDP Q2 Jepang tercatat lebih rendah dari perkiraan 2.3%. Crude inventory AS anjlok 5.6 juta barel pekan lalu dan laporan International Energy Agency menaikkan target permintaan untuk minyak di tahun 2009/2010, picu teknikal rebound harga minyak. Saham Goldman Sachs diupgrade Meredith Whitney kemarin. Indeks Kospi diugrade FTSE Inggris. Nikkei 225 -47.81 di 10,465.86, Hang Seng 103.71 di 21,173.27, Shanghai +38.20 di 2,963.08, Taiex Taiwan +1.04 di 7,333.12, Kospi +6.36 di 1,651.04, SET Thailand +7.50 di 703.09, STI SIngapura +0.15 di 2,682.17.

Rupiah menguat terhadap dolar sebesar Rp 17 di Rp 9,917, mengikuti penguatan mata uang regional dan major terhadap dolar, berkat meningkatnya daya tarik untuk asset yang beresiko seperti saham dan obligasi. AUD-USD menguat 0.0001 ke 0.8646, NZD-USD di 0.7044, USD-SGD melemah 0.0030 di 1.4220, USD-KRW melemah 3.2250 di 1,221.25, USD-PHP melemah di 0.0950 di 48.2670, USD-CNY melemah 0.0014 di 6.8279, USD-THB melemah 0.0400 di 33.9650. Data Industrial Production China +12.3% di bulan Agustus, New Lending meningkat dan money supply mencapai rekor, sebesar 410.4 miliar yuan ($ 60.1 miliar) naik dari 355.9 miliar yuan. Ekspor China mungkin akan anjlok 19% di bulan Agustus dari tahun sebelumnya. Investor Jepang diperkirakan melakukan repatriasi dana (dari pembayaran kupon obligasi Eropa) menjelang akhir tutup semester 3.

Prediksi Menguat, Saatnya BoW BUMI
Saham PT Bumi Resources, Jumat (11/9) diprediksikan menguat seiring rebound kembali harga minyak ke level US$ 71 per barel. Laporan keuangan perseroan semester satu, juga akan menjadi magnet. Buy on weakness (BoW) BUMI!

Kinerja Semester II-2009 BTEL Positif
INILAH.COM, Jakarta - PT Bakrie Telecom Tbk (BTEL) mengisyaratkan, kinerja keuangan perusahaan selama semester I-2009 bakal naik dibandingkan periode sama tahun lalu. Perseroan rencananya bakal mengumumkan kinerja semester I itu pekan depan.

Beli, Target Saham Elnusa Rp450
INILAH.COM, Jakarta - PT Elnusa Tbk (ELSA) berpeluang untuk membidik pendapatan tahun ini naik 20% menjadi Rp3 triliun. Untuk itu saham ELSA direkomendasikan beli.

Kalbe Farma Catatkan Laba Rp 4,2 Triliun
INILAH.COM, Jakarta - PT Kalbe Farma Tbk (KLBF) mencatatkan penjualan bersih sebesar Rp 4,2 triliun pada semester 2009 atau meningkat 12,6% dibandingkan semester pertama 2008 sebesar Rp 3,7 triliun.

Ancora Siapkan US$49 Jt Ekspansi Proyek MNK
INILAH.COM, Jakarta - PT Ancora Indonesia Resources Tbk (AIR) merencanakan capital expenditure (capex) sebesar US$49 juta untuk keperluan ekspansi plant proyek PT Milti Nitrotama Kimia (MNK) pada 2010 mendatang.

Summarecon Dukung Bunga Kredit Turun
INILAH.COM, Jakarta - Kalangan pengembang menyambut baik rencana penurunan suku bunga 14 bank di dalam negeri akan mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional. Sebab dampaknya akan memicu pertumbuhan industri properti. Demikian dikatakan Dirut PT Summarecon Agung Tbk (SMRA), Johanes Mardjuki di Jakarta, Kamis (10/9). "Industri properti masih tetap tumbuh, namun tidak secepat yang terjadi tahun-tahun sebelumnya akibat krisis keuangan global yang menghambat pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional," katanya.

KLBF Siapkan Belanja Modal Rp 350 Miliar untuk 2010
Per Juni 2009 lalu, kas KLBF tercatat sebesar Rp 1,97 triliun.

SIPD Mendapat Utang Rp 201 Miliar
Utang dari BNI ini berjangka waktu lima tahun dengan bunga 13% per tahun.

Aturan Baru Margin Trading
Suatu saham bisa masuk daftar margin asalkan memiliki minimal nilai transaksi Rp 10 miliar per hari.

Tower A Gandaria Milik PWON Terjual 80%
Sementara apartemen di tower B sudah terjual 60%.

KKGI Akan Memecah Nilai Nominal Saham 1:4
Pasca stock split, nilai nominal saham KKGI jadi Rp 50 per saham.

WIKA Kian Kokoh Asalkan Tidak Merambah Batubara
Hingga Agustus 2009, WIKA sudah memenuhi 86,8% target kontrak 2009.

APOL Meraih Kontrak Baru US$ 9 Juta
APOL akan mengangkut batubara selama empat bulan hingga akhir tahun ini.

OKAS Mendapat Tawaran Utang
OKAS akan memanfaatkan kredit tersebut untuk menggenapi kebutuhan dana akuisisi PT Bormindo Nusantara.

Produksi Minyak Medco di Blok 47 Bakal Mundur
CNPC membatalkan rencana mengambil alih separuh Blok 47 Libya dari Verenex.

Kembali ke Emerging Market
Pertarungan antara bearish dan bullish yang membuat pasar saham dalam beberapa pekan ini cenderung bergerak stagnan, akhirnya berakhir dengan kemenangan bullish market. Kemarin, indeks harga saham gabungan (IHSG) ditutup pada posisi 2.411,86 atau menguat 28,52 poin (1,20%). Ini merupakan level tertinggi baru dalam tahun ini.

KUARTAL III, EKSPEKTASI PENJUALAN Rp 6,5 T, Kalbe Kaji Emisi Obligasi Rp 300 M
PT Kalbe Farma Tbk (KLBF) berniat menerbitkan obligasi tahun ini minimal Rp 300 miliar. Dana yang terhimpun dari penerbitan surat utang itu akan digunakan untuk memenuhi kebutuhan belanja modal tahun depan.

BEI Akan Revisi PER Saham Margin
PT Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) segera mengubah aturan daftar saham margin (list margin). Revisi terutama dilakukan terhadap ketentuan bahwa price to earning ratio (PER) saham margin tidak boleh melebihi tiga kali PER rata-rata industri.

Emas Antam Makin Berkilau
Runtuhnya harga nikel di pasar dunia memukul telak kinerja keuangan PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (Antam). Tapi itu tak membuat emiten bersandi saham ANTM ini jatuh tersungkur. Ternyata, emas menjadi juru selamat Antam. Emas jugakah yang bakal membuat harga ANTM di lantai bursa makin berkilau?

XL Akan Bayar Utang Rp 4,1 T
PT Excelcomindo Pratama Tbk (EXCL) akan melunasi utangnya sebesar US$ 326 juta dan Rp 850 miliar yang jatuh tempo pada 2010. Pembayaran utang sekitar Rp 4,1 triliun itu menggunakan dana hasil penerbitan saham baru (rights issue).

Total Perkirakan Produksi Gas 2010 Turun
Total E&P Indonesie memperkirakan, produksi gas bumi dan minyak mentah pada 2010 akan mengalami penurunan dibandingkan 2009. Pada 2009 produksi gas diperkirakan mencapai 2.550 juta kaki kubik per hari (MMSCFD) dan 2010 turun menjadi 2.380 MMSCFD.

Sinarmas Crossing Saham Delta Dunia Rp 305,5 Miliar
PT Sinarmas Sekuritas (DH) melakukan transaksi tutup sendiri (crossing) atas saham PT Delta Dunia Property Tbk (DOID) di pasar negosiasi senilai Rp 305,5 miliar. Nilai transaksi itu setara 3,05 miliar saham pada harga Rp 100 per unit.

Polysindo Lunasi Utang US$ 18 Juta
PT Polysindo Eka Perkasa Tbk (POLY) telah menyelesaikan utang letter of credit (L/C) pembelian (purchasing) bahan baku senilai US$ 18 juta dari Barclays.

Sumber: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Inilah.com, Kontan, Investor-daily, Detik.com.
www.strategydesk.co.id

Pola Breakout & Kuatnya Momentum di IHSG Dapat Angkat IHSG Lebih Lanjut

Market Review
IHSG kembali melanjutkan penguatannya ke level tertinggi tahun ini, berkat kenaikan saham unggulan yang mendapatkan keuntungan dari imbas penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar AS yang memicu spekulasi inflasi RI bulan September akan terkendali dan emiten yang memiliki beban hutang dalam bentuk dolar AS akan merosot, memberikan daya tarik kepada investor. Imbas dari penguatan saham regional dan Wall Street berkat pernyataan positif dari laporan Beige Book milik the Fed mengenai kondisi ekonomi AS dan kenaikan harga komoditi global, mendorong investor kembali memburu saham grup Astra (ASII, UNTR), perbankan (BBRI, BMRI, BDMN, BBCA) dan energi (ENRG, PGAS). IHSG menguat 28.525 poin (1.2%) ditutup di 2,411.863, dengan nilai transaksi Rp 5.039 triliun. Investor asing membukukan net buying Rp 557.74 kemarin, dibandingkan net buying Rp 459.03 miliar (09/09).

Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific menguat kemarin, mendorong indeks MSCI Asia Pacific ke level tertinggi sejak kejatuhan Lehman Brothers Holding Inc, karena laporan earning Yurun Food China dan prediksi dari Texas Instruments Inc yang lebih baik dari perkiraan, serta kenaikan harga komoditi meningkatkan sentimen investor global. Diupgradenya indeks saham Kospi Korsel oleh FTSE Inggris, ikut angkat saham Asia.

IHSG Outlook

Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 3.09 8% +23% 6.50% 2.75% 4.0%
STI 22.00 16% +3.4% 0.69% -0.70% -10.1%
KLCI 15.0 10% -0.5% 2.0% 3.00% -3.9%
SET 29.05 4% -6.1% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 33.4 36% +28% 5.31% -1.40% 7.9%
N225 45.2 -1% -16.9% 0.10% -0.10% -9.7%
HSI 22.5 19% -8.0% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 14.1 3% -17.0% 0.25% -1.4% -3.6%
* Negara Bersangkutan

Kuatnya sentimen dari indeks saham global dan faktor teknikal yang breakout sejumlah resistansi mendorong IHSG mencapai level penutupan tertinggi sejak Juni 2008, seharusnya dapat melanjutkan momentum kenaikan di akhir pekan ini. Imbas penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar (penutupan di Rp 9,930 kemarin) yang memberikan sentimen positif kepada saham perbankan, aneka industri dan konsumer, diikuti isu pembentukan kabinet Presiden SBY yang akan dilantik bulan Oktober mendatang dan investor asing yang masih membukukan net buying Rp 1,269.14 triliun dalam 4 hari perdagangan di pekan ini, dapat menopang kinerja IHSG dalam waktu dekat ini. Sementara saham-saham komoditi yang tertinggal (lagging stock) disaat kenaikan IHSG saat ini, dapat mendapatkan keuntungan hari ini, dari perkiraan switching portfolio dari sejumlah saham unggulan yang menguat tajam baru-baru ini, di tengah stabilnya harga minyak diatas US$ 70/barel (target US$ 75/77 dalam 1-2 bulan ini).

Meski kekhawatiran terhadap mahalnya valuasi saham IHSG saat ini diantara negara di Asia Tenggara lainnya, laju penguatan rupiah terbatas berkat potensi intervensi dari BI (resistance kuat di 9,850) dapat menurunkan daya tarik untuk aset domestik, kewaspadaan menjelang peringatan 11 September, isu negatif dari sektor perumahan AS (analis Meredith Whitney melihat peluang harga rumah anjlok 20%) dan trend kenaikan pengangguran global, diikuti faktor teknikal IHSG dan regional Asia yang overbought, patut diwaspadai investor lokal.
Update: GDP Q2 Jepang tercatat lebih rendah dari perkiraan 2.3%. Crude inventory AS anjlok 5.6 juta barel pekan lalu dan laporan International Energy Agency menaikkan target permintaan untuk minyak di tahun 2009/2010, picu teknikal rebound harga minyak. Saham Goldman Sachs diupgrade Meredith Whitney kemarin.

Stock Picks:Average last 11 week +69.03%. Target 10-30%, Risk < -10%
BUMI, PTBA, DOID, BBRI, BBKP, HMSP, JSMR, HEXA, INDF,ITMG, PGAS.
Stock Picks:
• BBCA : Hold target Rp 5,275
• SSIA : Speculative Buy target Rp 450

Global Outlook
Indeks saham global diperkirakan akan mendapatkan hambatan untuk menguat lebih lanjut, setelah analis Meredith Whitney melihat harga rumah AS akan meosot kembali sebesar 20% karena tingginya pengangguran dan potensi penurunan saham lebih lanjut (mendukung prediksi JP Morgan, Bank of America dan Blackrock Inc), diikuti laporan foreclosure filling perumahan AS meningkat untuk bulan ke-4 di bulan Agustus, memicu kembali kekhawatiran terhadap kestabilan pemulihan ekonomi AS. Kenaikan indeks saham negara maju saat ini, mendorong indeks MSCI Emerging Markets ke level termahal dalam 9 tahun (menguat 56% di tahun ini: PER 19.9x) dan pelemahan dolar AS lebih lanjut di tengah kekhawatiran terhadap defisit anggaran dan perdagangan (- US$ 32.0 miliar), ikut membebani kinerja Indeks saham global. Meski laporan jobless claims AS anjlok 26K menjadi 550K di pekan lalu, pernyataan Fed Beige Book mengenai stabilnya ekonomi AS di bulan Juli & Agustus, diikuti bank sentral
Inggris mempertahankan suku bunga 0.5% dan kebijakan quantitave easing, seharusnya memberikan support kepada indeks global.

Technical Analysis:
IHSG diperkirakan masih mengalami penguatan dari berbagai signal yang positif yang seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan indeks lebih lanjut selama bertahan di atas support 2,400/2,350. signal dari pola candle long closing marubozu (bullish continuation), signal golden cross di 5 & 10 day MA, indikator ADX menunjukkan higher high, MACD bullish kendati overbought, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi kenaikan hari dan pekan mendatang. Hitungan EW: breakoutnya IHSG diatas 2411 high, mendorong perkiraan kesalahan hitungan EW (konfirmasi penutupan hari ini jika diatas 2411), ada 2 alternatif skenario kemarin dan perkiraan wave 4 zig zag abc telah berakhir di leg 2271 dan saat ini dalam proses wave 5/3 (perhatikan panjang wave 1-2 di 2116-1968 menyamai panjang wave 4: 2411-2271) untuk target 2,460/2500 (liat chart). Support di 2,355/2,328.
Resistance: 2464.35/2444.92/2436.66/2428.39. PP 2406.05
Support : 2397.79/2378.36/2367.19/2347.75

Trend Bullish (Breakout Resistance) Regional Jangka Pendek Dapat Angkat Indeks Lebih Lanjut

Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)
Indeks Nikkei berhasil menguat 1,95%, sekaligus membukukan kenaikan harian terbesar dalam 2 pekan terakhir, menyusul tingginya minat beresiko (risk appetite) investor, sehingga mendorong saham. Selain itu, saham perbankan turut menyumbang kenaikan indeks setelah mengalami kejatuhan beberapa hari sebelumnya. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup menguat 201,53 poin, atau 1,95%, ke posisi 10.513,67. Indeks Topix ditutup naik 2% menadi 958,49.
Indeks masih berada dalam uptrend channel kendati menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle spinning top, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan hari ini. Indikator ADX meningkat, MACD berada di teritorial bullish, seharusnya masih membatasi potensi kenaikan hari ini. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks saat ini berada dalam wave koreksi 2/B dalam koreksi ABC dalam subwave (4). Resistance di 10550 (upper channel)/10680 (former high). Support 10340 (channel support)/10,140 (daily low). Perkiraan range hari ini 10250-10550. Rekomendasi Hold Sell 10410 target 10200 stp 100p, Buy 10150 target 10450 stop 100p, buy 10,000 target 10400, Sell 10,540 target 10,400. (+80p) Chart SSIU9 4-Jam

Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Bursa Korsel ditutup menguat kemarin, dipimpin saham produsen kapal. Sementara itu, keputusan bank sentral Korsel yang mempertahankan suku bunga 2,0% tidak terlalu banyak mempengaruhi pasar, kendati adanya indikasi kenaikan suku bunga dalam waktu dekat. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup melonjak 36,91 poin, atau 2,3%, ke posisi 1.644,68 poin.
Indeks kembali menunjukkan signal positif dari pola candle long bullish meski mengalami signal divergence negatif (volume). Kendati masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel, tetapi kondisi Indikator ADX lemah, MACD masih bullish & divergence, seharusnya mendukung membatasi potensi kenaikan. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks di wave 5/3. Resistance di 215.60 (highest)/218.00 (trendline). Support 210.50 /209.40. Rekomendasi Buy 209.0 & 206.00 target 213.00 stop 100p, Sell 215.50 & 218.00 target 209.50, Sell break 206.50 target 203.00 stop 60p. Buy 203.00 target 207.50 stop 50p. (-100-100p) Chart KSU9 4-Jam

Hang Seng Futures Kontrak September (HSIU9)
Bursa saham Hong Kong ditutup menguat 1,05% kemarin, dipimpin saham bank Cina berkat keyakinan investor bahwa Beijing tidak akan meredam perkreditan menjelang hari Nasional bulan depan. Sedangkan indeks Shanghai terkoreksi 0,73%, menjelang pengumuman data ekonomi penting Cina besok, seperti Indutrial Production, CPI, PPI, Retail sales. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup bertambah 218,52 poin, atau 21.069,56 setelah anjlok 1% Rabu lalu.
Dalam chart daily, Indeks menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle shooting star (indikasi reversal) meski masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel, seharusnya dukung potensi penurunan. Indikator ADX meningkat, MACD bullish & divergence, seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan. Indeks akan mendapatkan sejumlah resistance 21320/21425. Support di 20840/20480. Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan proses impulse 2 / 5 . Rekomendasi : Buy 20450 target 21000 stop 60p. Sell 21200 & 21420 target 20,500 stop 100p. Sell break 20800 target 20450 stop 100p. Buy 20150 target 20750 stop 100p, Buy 19750 target 20200, sell break 19700 target 19450 stop 100p. (-100 +350p) Chart HSIU9 4-Jam

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Technical Analysis FX: Euro & Pound Berpotensi Menguat Lebih Lanjut

EUR-USD
Euro menunjukkan pola bullish continuation dalam uptrend channel, seharusnya dukung potensi kenaikan kendati tertahan di 1.4630. Indikator ADX meningkat dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih dukung potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut. Support berada di 1.4460/1.4420. Resistance berada di 1.4630 (161.8) /1.4750. Euro menunjukkan impulse wave 5/3 untuk target 1.4628/1.5000, selama tidak menembus 1.4260. Buy 1.4360 target 1.4500, Buy 1.4250 target 1.4350 stop 1.4070, buy 1.4450 target 1.4750 stop 1.4200. sell 1.4630 & 1.4750 target 1.4400, hold buy 1.4455 trgt 1.4630. stop 1.4455, sell break 1.4200 tgt 1.4000.
USD-JPY
USDJPY menunjukkan pola candle long bearish dan berada dalam pola downtrend channel dengan resistance di 92.10. Penutupan dibawah channel di 92.10 akan mengarahkan USDJPY ke target low kemarin di 91.42 (triple bottom). Indikator ADX meningkat, MACD bearish, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan selama bertahan di diatas 91.75. Resistance berada di 92.45/93.20, support di 91.40/89.65. Sell 93.20 target 93.00 stop 60p. sell 95.65 target 94.00 stop 60p. Sell 93.80 stop 60p target 91.50 & sell 92.50 target 91.70 stop 92.00. hold buy 92.00 target 93.80 stop 91.00, sell break 91.00 target 89.60.
GBP-USD
GBP menunjukkan pola bullish continuation diikuti signal breakout channel dan berada di atas middle channel di 1.6610, diikuti indikator ADX rebound dan MACD di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama ditutup dibawah 1.6580. EW menunjukkan GBP berada dalam wave 1/ impulse 5 wave dalam wave 3. Buy 1.6500 target 1.6750 stop 1.6450. sell break 1.6450 target 1.6200 stop 60p, buy 1.6200 target 1.6550. Sell break 1.5950 target 1.5800 stop 60p. Sell 1.6750 target 1.6500 stop 60p. Hold Buy 1.6620 target 1.6700. (-70p).
AUD-USD
AUD masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan trend bullish jangka pendek, diikuti pola bullish continuation (long bullish candle) sementara indikator ADX lmenguat, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan selama di tutup diatas downchannel 0.8591. Resistance di 0.8697/0.8750, support di 0.8540/0.8475. Buy 0.8540 target 0.8690, sell 0.8690 target 0.8500 & sell 0.8800 stop 0.8620, buy 0.8400 target 0.8650.

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Credit Rally May Stall as Greed Causes ‘Froth,’ StanChart Says

(Bloomberg) -- The credit rally that has pushed up Asian corporate bonds, handing investors a record 19.6 percent return this year, may be overdone, according to Standard Chartered Plc. “It has all gone too far too fast,” said Vijay Chander, head of credit strategy at Standard Chartered in Hong Kong. “From total Armageddon, markets are almost pricing in total perfection in a year.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aAQqibOcd7Bk

IEA Raises 2009, 2010 Oil Demand Forecasts on Growth

(Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency raised its global oil demand estimate for next year for a second consecutive month, citing growth in Chinese consumption and stronger-than-expected oil use in the U.S. World oil consumption is likely to average 85.7 million barrels a day next year, 450,000 barrels a day more than previously estimated, the adviser to 28 nations said today in its monthly report. Demand growth next year, at 1.27 million barrels a day, is lower than previously forecast after the outlook for 2009 was also increased.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=abmz8y9WRlXo

Thursday, September 10, 2009

Research Saham Indonesia & Komoditi Sekuritas Lokal & Asing

Download article FA Saham Indonesia + Komoditi

Daily Technical Analysis & Elliot Wave Forex/Cross/Gold/Oil/CFD

By Ahmad Mudjo

Download Article Forex/Cross/Commodity

Asia’s Wealthy Shun Exotic Investments as Stocks Rise, DBS Says

Rich individuals in Asia are shunning “exotic” investments such as derivatives and hedge funds in favor of stocks and bonds, challenging efforts to boost private-banking revenue, according to DBS Group Holdings Ltd.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aTaa.sH4qs2M

Elliot Wave: Oil Approaching $74.90

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com |

Oil Apraching $74.90
4 Hour chart trend: Long. Main price points: 67.00, and 74.90. Looking for: Wave C)
The 76.4% Fibonacci support, discussed on Thursday of last week, held very well in a corrective red wave B). Oil gained sharply (5% in o9ne session on Tuesday), from $67 support to the current price around $71 per barrel, which suggests that a new impulse leg is in progress. We are looking for a five wave move up in the red wave C) leg, approaching 74.90, and the wave A) top. If we are on the right track here, a whole blue wave B correction should be completed somewhere around the 76.00 area, just above the wave A) top of the second zig-zag.

Citigroup: Greenback’s Slide Against Euro May Resume

(Bloomberg) -- A rally by the euro through the level of $1.4622 per U.S. dollar would suggest that the greenback’s “medium-term downtrend has resumed,” according to Citigroup Inc. The 16-nation European currency breached $1.4509 yesterday on an intraday basis, indicating the currency is “attempting to push through the trend across the highs,” technical analysts Tom Fitzpatrick in New York and Shyam Devani in London wrote in a note to clients today.The level of $1.4622 is “near-term resistance” above $1.4509 for the euro, the upper boundary of a trading range where sell orders may be clustered, and represents the 61.8 percent retracement in Fibonacci analysis, the Citigroup analysts wrote. Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that securities tend to rise or fall by specific percentages after reaching a new high or low.

The euro rose 0.7 percent to $1.4575 at 11:33 a.m. in New York, from $1.4478 yesterday. It touched $1.4601, the strongest level since Dec. 18, when it reached $1.4720, the starting point for Citigroup’s Fibonacci retracement calculations. Technical analysis is the study of trading patterns for signals that may foreshadow price changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

Options: Rising Wedge Suggests Euro May Reach $1.50: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Trading patterns suggest the euro may strengthen to $1.50 for the first time in more than a year within six weeks, according Calyon, the investment banking unit of Credit Agricole SA. The 16-nation currency’s move this week above resistance formed by an upper trend line from a so-called rising wedge formation at $1.4524 signaled the euro’s gains are poised to continue, wrote Simon Smollett, senior foreign-exchange options strategist in London at Calyon, in a note yesterday. He advised clients to use an options trade to capitalize on the move.“The upper trend line has now broken at $1.4524, which seems encouraging,” wrote Smollett. “This kind of pattern is worth following as it is not especially prone to false breakouts.”

The euro appreciated 0.5 percent yesterday against the greenback to $1.4557, after touching $1.4601, its strongest level since Dec. 18, as record low U.S. borrowing costs encouraged investors to sell the dollar and buy higher-yielding assets. The currency last topped $1.50 on Aug. 11, 2008.In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Resistance is an area where sell orders may be clustered, making further price increases more difficult. Support is an area where buy orders may be clustered.

Seagull Options Spread
Smollett recommended that investors purchase a so-called seagull options spread to bet on euro gains. The strategy involves buying a euro call spread, which is the simultaneous purchase and sale of call options with different strike prices, and also the sale of a put. Call options grant the right, but not the obligation, to buy the currency at a pre-set price, while puts allow for sales.The call spread portion of the trade involves the purchase of a six-week euro call option at a strike price of $1.45 and the sale of a similar maturity call with a strike price of $1.50. The final leg of the seagull spread is a sale of a put at a strike price of $1.40.
The trade would break even, netting no profit or loss, if the euro appreciates just to $1.4637 and would yield gains upon a move above that. Potential losses are unlimited on the put option sold if the euro depreciates below the strike price of $1.40.

Track Record (17 Juni - 09 September 2009 = 12 Pekan) Saham di IHSG

Track Record (17 Juni - 09 September 2009 = 12 Pekan) Average 69.03% (11 Pekan) + 3.84% (total 53.86% : 14 saham pilihan pekan ini) = Total 72.87% (12 Pekan berturut-turut positive return) = Average 6.07%/Week. ASII 29,500 (+2.7%), ANTM 2,300 (+9.9%), BUMI 2,800 (+7.0%), BNBR 133 (+2.2%), BSDE 670 (1.5%), BBRI 7,150 (+4.2%), DOID 1,980 (+1.7%), HEXA 2,725 (+3.7%), ITMG 24,000 (+0.6%), INDF 2,625 (+3.8%), JSMR 1,750 (4.6%), KIJA 125 (+2.4%), PGAS 3,350 (+5.2%), UNVR 10,450 (4.3%). Check daily stock pick at Universal Broker Indonesia Newsletter. GL

Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Saham IHSG 10-09-2009

Research Mandiri Sec: Neutral MEDC target Rp 3,175

Research Mandiri Sec: Neutral ASII target Rp 29,500

Research NISP Sec: Sell AALI target Rp 18,100

Research Danareksa Sec: Buy PGAS target Rp 3,800

Ciputra Garap Proyek di Dubai
PT CIPUTRA Property Tbk (CTRP) disebut-sebut mendapatkan proyek pembangunan sentral bisnis dan hiburan di Dubai, Uni Emirat Arab (UEA), karena digandeng pengembang setempat. Menurut sumber Investor Daily, ekspansi itu akan dijadikan momentum kenaikan harga CTRP menuju level Rp 500 dalam jangka pendek maupun menengah. Pada perdagangan kemarin, CTRP ditutup terkoreksi Rp 5 (1,38%) ke posisi Rp 355.

Polysindo Ekspansi
HARGA saham PT Polysindo Eka Perkasa Tbk (POLY) bakal diangkat menembus level Rp 100 dalam jangka pendek. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, perseroan dikabarkan akan ekspansi usaha dan akan melakukan aksi korporasi. Selain itu, keberhasilan perseroan meraih laba bersih per semester I-2009 juga berdampak positif. Pada perdagangan kemarin, POLY ditutup naik Rp 11 (15%) ke level Rp 84.

IHSG Dibuka Naik 15,9 Poin
Pergerakan IHSG pada perdagangan Rabu (10/9) dibuka naik 15,9 poin (0,67%) ke level 2.399,24 mengikuti bursa regional dan Wall Street yang masih positif. IHSG sempat menyentuh tertinggi 2,409.8020. Imbas kenaikan indeks saham DJIA +48.88 di 9,547.22 semalam, berkat Goldman Sachs Group Inc menyarankan pembelian saham multi-industri (General Electric), Stanford C.Berstein & Co upgrade harga saham EBay Inc melejit, JP Morgan upgrade saham Morgan Stanley, Citigroup upgrade saham MarterCard Inc, serta Billionaire Michael Price melihat valuasi saham AS menarik (mengulang periode tahun 1975-1982). Laporan The Fed Beige Book menunjukan ekonomi stabil di bulan Juli-Agustus, pasar tenaga kerja masih tetap lemah. Data Machinery Orders Jepang anjlok 9.3%, Employment Australia anjlok 27,100. Meski earning dari Texas Instrument Inc angkat sentimen global hari ini. Nikkei 225 +140.37 menjadi 10,452.51, Hang Seng +310.91 di 21,161.95, Shanghai -34.66 di 2,911.60, Taiex Taiwan +78.33 menjadi 7,329.05, Kospi +23.81 di 1,631.58, SET Thailand +7.10 menjadi 702.69, STI Singapura +35.65 menjadi 2,686.13.

Mata uang rupiah menguat 29.25 rupiah terhadap dolar di Rp 9,929.75, mengikuti trend penguatan mata uang regional terhadap dolar AS, berkat meningkatnya inflow ke pasar modal Indonesia. Pernyataan Fed Beige Book mengenai stabilnya ekonomi AS, kenaikan harga komoditi dan kekhawatiran mengenai defisit anggaran AS berperan melemahkan dolar AS. USD-JPY menguat 0.0138 di 92.05, AUD-USD terkoreksi 0.0032 di 0.8592, USD-SGD menguat 0.0012 di 1.4246, USD-KRW melemah 0.0250 di 1226.80, USD-PHP melemah 0.0950 di 48.3150, USD-CNY flat di 6.8286. EUR-USD di 1.4566, GBP-USD di 1.6539, USD-CHF di 1.0407.

Beli, Target Saham Sorini Rp1.690
INILAH.COM, Jakarta - PT Sorini Agro Asia Corp Tbk (SOBI) menguasai pangsa pasar sorbitol di Indonesia sebesar 98%. Untuk itu, saham SOBI dipastikan mengalami kenaikan.

PT Tiga Pilar Sejahtera Food Tbk (AISA) tengah menjajaki utang bank senilai US$7 juta untuk pembangunan pabrik pengolahan kelapa sawit di Kalimantan. Demikian dijelaskan analis Reliance, Gina Novrina dalam risetnya Kamis (10/9). Ia melihat, tahun ini, penjualan Tiga Pilar berpeluang meningkat 10% menjadi Rp538, 1 miliar. "Kami merekomendasikan beli dengan target harga Rp475," katanya.

BUMI Mulai Tender Herald
PT Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) melalui anak perusahaannya, Calipso Investment Pte Ltd, terhitung sejak kemarin (9/9), resmi membuka masa penawaran untuk membeli 15,85% saham Herald Resources Limited. BUMI menawarkan harga pembelian A$ 0,70 per saham Herald.

INDY: Ajak Capital dan Kepco Beli Berau
INDY disinyalir membentuk konsorsium dengan Capital Group Companies dan Korea Electric Power Corporation (Kepco) untuk mengakuisisi 90% saham PT Berau Coal dan hari ini dijadwalkan memberikan harga penawarannya. Selain itu, Recapital Advisors dikabarkan berkongsi dengan BUMI untuk memborong saham Berau. Sementara itu, INDY belum mau mengomentari kabar tersebut.

BYAN: Tunda Akuisisi Tambang Batubara
BYAN menunda akuisisi tambang batubara jadi tahun depan dari semula tahun ini karena belum adanya target yang cocok. Sementara itu, komisaris utama Dato Low Tuck Kwong menambah kepemilikan sahamnya sebanyak 400.000 saham jadi 1,97 miliar saham seharga Rp5.781,25/saham pada 7 Sept09.

PGAS: Capaex FY10 Diindikasikan US$250 Jt
PGAS mengindikasikan capex FY10 sama seperti tahun ini sebesar US$250 juta guna mengembangkan jaringan gas.

Indosat Akan Naikkan Nilai Obligasi
PT Indosat Tbk (ISAT) kemungkinan menaikkan (upsize) nilai emisi obligasi menjadi di atas Rp 1,5 triliun pada kuartal IV-2009. Perseroan membutuhkan dana sekitar Rp 7 triliun untuk membiayai belanja modal tahun depan.

Antam Genjot Penjualan Emas
PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) memproyeksikan penjualan emas perseroan tahun ini mencapai 10 ton atau melampaui target yang sebelumnya ditetapkan sebanyak sembilan ton.

Pasar Obligasi Berpeluang Dapat Limpahan Dana Rp 138 Triliun
Pasar sekunder obligasi berpeluang terguyur likuiditas Rp 138,28 triliun hingga 2020. Dana tersebut berasal dari surat utang negara (SUN) seri bunga mengambang (variable rate/VR) yang akan jatuh tempo bertahap.

Radiant Kantungi Kontrak Rp 850 Miliar
PT Radiant Utama Interinsco Tbk (RUIS) telah mengantungi kontrak baru tahun ini senilai Rp 850 miliar. Kontrak tersebut untuk pengerjaan operating support dan inspeksi di bidang minyak dan gas bumi.

Sierad Produce Peroleh Komitmen Pinjaman Rp 201 M
PT Sierad Produce Tbk (SIPD) memperoleh komitmen pinjaman sekitar Rp 195-201 miliar dari PT Bank Negara Indonesia Tbk (BBNI). Ditargetkan pencairan pinjaman tersebut paling lambat akhir tahun ini.

SMGR Bakal Bangun 10 Pabrik Baru
Hingga 2013 SMGR telah mengalokasikan belanja modal atau capital expenditure (capex) sebesar 12 triliun.

Kabar Rights Issue & Akuisisi Angkat Harga Saham SDRA
Dalam sepekan terakhir hingga kemarin, harga saham SDRA melompat 35,7% menjadi Rp 171 per saham.

Perusahaan India Mengincar IPO Armadian
Bloomberg melaporkan, NTPC telah menunjuk Macquarie Group Limited untuk melihat potensi perusahaan pertambangan di Indonesia.

IPO Desember 2009, PP akan Lepas 21,5% Saham
PT Pembangunan Perumahan (PP) mengincar dana IPO Rp 1,4 triliun.

Rumor Siap Topang Penguatan BUMI
Saham PT Bumi Resources (BUMI), Kamis (10/9) diprediksikan menguat seiring beredarnya rumors emiten ini akan melakukan aksi korporasi baru. Meski belum dipastikan apa rumorsnya, direkomendasikan buy untuk saham sejuta umat ini.

Bunga 13,5%, Dana IPO ASRI Disimpan di Century
INILAH.COM, Jakarta - Dari Rp293,8 miliar rupiah dana hasil Initial Public Offering (IPO) PT Alam Sutera Realty Tbk (ASRI) sebesar Rp113,3 miliar didepositokan di Bank Century.

Yield SUN Tertinggi di Asia
Berdasarkan data HSBC Holding Plc kemarin, yield SUN berdenominasi rupiah rata-rata mencapai 10,65% , tertinggi di antara obligasi mata uang lokal 10 negara Asia lainnya. Tertinggi kedua diduduki oleh India yakni 7,81%, Filipina 7,20% dan Korea 4,97%.

RUIS: Kantongi Kontrak Baru Rp850 M
Tahun ini, RUIS mengantongi kontrak baru sebesar Rp850 miliar berupa pengerjaan operating support dan inspeksi migas. Saat ini perseroan tengah mengikuti tender pengadaann fasilitas FPSO senilai US$500 juta yang akan diumumkan tahun depan.

Sumber: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Inilah.com, Kontan, Investor-daily, Detik.com.
www.strategydesk.co.id

Momentum Kenaikan IHSG Merupakan Peluang Untuk Sell on Rally

Market Review
Kenaikan harga saham Grup Astra dan saham perbankan nasional yang mendapatkan keuntungan dari spekulasi inflasi akan terkendali di bulan mendatang berkat imbas dari penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar, berperan mengangkat IHSG kemarin, mengikuti momentum pelemahan dolar AS terhadap major. Isu Kabinet bayangan Presiden SBY juga positif untuk IHSG. Isu inflasi dapat memberikan peluang kepada BI untuk menurunkan suku bunga acuan menjelang akhir tahun, merupakan sisi positif untuk saham perbankan dan konsumer. Kenaikan saham Wall Street hari Selasa, meningkatkan keyakinan investor lokal kemarin. IHSG menguat 12.04 poin (0.51%) ditutup di 2,383.34, dengan nilai transaksi Rp 3.703 triliun. Investor asing membukukan net buying Rp 459.03 kemarin, dibandingkan net buying Rp 168.6 miliar (08/09).

Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific melemah kemarin, mendorong indeks terkoreksi dari tertinggi 1-tahun, karena Chairman Alibaba.com Ltd menjual sahamnya dan pemegang saham Lenovo Group mengurangi kepemilikan sahamnya. Imbas dari penurunan rating bank Jepang oleh JP Morgan diikuti saham AIG AS dipangkas ratingnya oleh Credit Suisse, ikut membebani kinerja indeks saham regional Asia kemarin.

IHSG Outlook

Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 30.85 8% +17.% 6.50% 2.75% 4.0%
STI 20.67 16% +3.4% 0.69% -0.70% -10.1%
KLCI 14.8 10% -0.5% 2.0% 3.00% -3.9%
SET 28.16 4% -6.1% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 32.37 36% +28% 5.31% -1.40% 7.9%
N225 44.94 -1% -16.9% 0.10% -0.10% -9.7%
HSI 22.2 19% -8.3% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 13.89 3% -18.0% 0.25% -1.4% -3.6%
* Negara Bersangkutan

IHSG kembali diuntungkan oleh munculnya sentimen positif dari isu kabinet Presiden SBY dalam waktu dekat, isu penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar AS (penutupan Rp 9,935 kemarin; potensi penguatan terbatas di 9,910/9,850, picu kekhawatiran intervensi BI) memberikan alasan kepada investor untuk memburu saham perbankan dan konsumer, karena penguatan rupiah mendorong spekulasi inflasi RI di bulan mendatang akan terkendali, membuka peluang kepada BI untuk turunkan suku bunga hingga akhir tahun. Penguatan rupiah juga menguntungkan sejumlah emiten yang memiliki beban hutang dalam US Dollar, menurunkan beban APBN akibat kenaikan harga minyak dunia (target US$ 75/77; support di US$ 67.5), merangsang peningkatan daya beli konsumen menjelang liburan panjang hari raya Idul Fitri, serta dapat mendorong capital inflow ke pasar modal domestik (investor asing membukukan net buying saham sebesar Rp 810.11 miliar di pekan ini), seharusnya angkat sentimen investor saham hari ini. Imbas kenaikan harga komoditi, dapat angkat harga saham komoditi lokal.

Meski laju kenaikan terbatas karena mahalnya valuasi saham IHSG saat ini diantara negara di Asia Tenggara lainnya, laju penguatan rupiah terbatas berkat potensi intervensi dari BI dapat picu aksi profit-taking saham lokal, kewaspadaan menjelang peringatan 11 September, isu negatif dari sektor perbankan (Jepang, Eropa dan AS) dan trend kenaikan pengangguran global, diikuti faktor teknikal IHSG yang menunjukkan bearish divergence, dapat membebani kinerja IHSG.

Stock Picks:Average last 11 week +69.03%. Target 10-30%, Risk < -10%
No Recommendation for today

Stock Picks:
• GJTL : Hold target Rp 500
• UNTR : Hold target Rp 16,500

Global Outlook
Indeks saham global mendapatkan keuntungan dari trend kenaikan jangka pendek hari ini, berkat sejumlah sentimen positif yang meningkatkan daya tarik untuk saham dan komoditi global saat ini. Kenaikan harga minyak dari hasil pertemuan OPEC yang mempertahankan output minyak sejak Agustus 2009 dan harga emas diatas US$ 1,000/troy ons (Goldman Sachs menaikkan prediksi harga logam dunia untuk tahun 2010), diikuti Goldman Sachs Group Inc menyarankan pembelian saham multi-industri (General Electric), Stanford C.Berstein & Co upgrade harga saham EBay Inc melejit, JP Morgan upgrade saham Morgan Stanley, Citigroup upgrade saham MarterCard Inc, serta Billionaire Michael Price melihat valuasi saham AS menarik (mengulang periode tahun 1975-1982). Meski laju kenaikan terbatas setelah laporan Fed Beige Book AS semalam menunjukkan pasar tenaga kerja masih tetap lemah, analis Blackrock Inc & Bank of America melihat peluang koreksi di saham AS dalam waktu dekat dan mahalnya valuasi indeks S&P 500 (P?E 18.9x) di tengah rapuhnya sektor finansial AS dan global, dapat membebani kinerja indeks global dalam waktu dekat ini

Technical Analysis:
Momentum kenaikan IHSG hari ini dapat dibatasi oleh sejumlah indikator yang menunjukkan signal reversal dalam waktu dekat ini, setelah candle menunjukkan pola bearish Deliberation (medium-reliability reversal), signal negative divergence di volume/ADX/MACD, seharusnya picu aksi profit-taking di akhir pekan ini. Breakoutnya pola descending triangle di daily chart, seharusnya angkat IHSG ke target 2,411/2,450 (projection 61.8%)/2,500 (Panjang range 2411-2271; descending triangle), selama IHSG tidak kembali ditutup dibawah 2,354 (dapat picu signal false break arahkan IHSG ke support line di 2,319). Hitungan EW menunjukkan IHSG saat ini membentuk 3 wave dalam B dengan perkiraan 2360/2387/2410 (Sell Area: Buy Break diatas 2,412) untuk perkiraan toppish wave 4)/ (4).
Resistance: 2416.97/2404.40/2399.14/2386.57. PP 2379.26
Support : 2374.00/2361.43/2354.12/2328.98

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www.universalbroker.co.id (Code TF)

Pola Teknikal Indeks Regional Menunjukkan Peluang Sell On Rally

Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)
Indeks Nikkei ditutup jatuh 0,78% kemarin, dimana Canon Inc dan eksportir lainnya berjatuhan menyusul penguatan yen terhadap dollar. Sedangkan saham perbankan juga jatuh setelah perusahaan broker downgrade 2 bank terbesar Jepang. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup jatuh 81,09 poin, atau 0,78%, ke posisi 10.312,14. Indeks Topix turun 0,7% menajdi 939,84.
Indeks masih berada dalam uptrend channel kendati menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle bearish engulfing, yang seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan hari ini. Indikator ADX lemah, MACD berada di teritorial bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi kenaikan hari ini. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks saat ini berada dalam wave koreksi 2/B dalam koreksi ABC dalam subwave (4). Resistance di 10410 (middle channel)/10510 (upper channel). Support 10320 (channel support)/10,140 (daily low). Perkiraan range hari ini 10200-10450. Rekomendasi Sell 10410 target 10200 stp 100p, Buy 10150 target 10450 stop 100p, buy 10,000 target 10400, Sell 10,540 target 10,400. (+80p)

Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Indeks Kospi mengalami pelemahan hari ini, dipicu jatuhnya saham eksportir seperti LG Electronic setelah mencatat rally pekan ini. Sementara itu, kenaikan harga emas yang melampaui $ 1,000/ons untuk pertama kali dalam 6 bulan dan harga minyak dunia yang kembali di kisaran $70 per barel, berhasil angkat harga saham komoditi, sekaligus meredam kejatuhan indeks lebih jauh. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup turun 11,92 poin, atau 0,74% ke posisi 1.607,77 poin.
Indeks kembali menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle dark cloud cover dan signal divergence negatif (volume). Kendati masih berada dalam pla uptrend channel, tetapi kondisi Indikator ADX lemah, MACD masih bullish & divergence, seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks berada di wave 5/3. Resistance di 212.45 (highest)/213.65 (trendline). Support 209.80 /207.85. Rekomendasi Buy 208.0 & 206.00 target 213.00 stop 100p, Sell 212.00 & 213.60 target 209.50, Sell break 206.50 target 203.00 stop 60p. Buy 203.00 target 207.50 stop 50p. Sell 218.00 target 209.00 stop 100p.

Hang Seng Futures Kontrak September (HSIU9)
Bursa Hong Kong ditutup anjlok 1,04% atau terkoreksi dari level 21.000, setelah indeks mencatatkan rally dalam 4 sesi berturut-turut. Sementara itu, saham Alibaba dan Lenovo Group jatuh setelah adanya pelepasan kedua saham itu oleh beberapa fund. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup anjlok 218,77 poin, atau 1,04%, ke posisi 20.851,04.
Dalam chart daily, Indeks menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle dark cloud cover (indikasi reversal) meski masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel, seharusnya dukung potensi penurunan. Indikator ADX meningkat, MACD bullish & divergence, seharusnya dukung potensi penurunan. Indeks akan mendapatkan sejumlah resistance 21205/21305. Support di 20720/20480. Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan proses impulse 2 / 5 . Rekomendasi : Buy 20450 target 21000 stop 60p. Sell 21150 & 21300 target 20,500 stop 100p. Sell break 20720 target 20250 stop 100p. Buy 20250 target 20750 stop 100p, Buy 19750 target 20200, sell break 20200 target 19800 stop 100p. (+400p)

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Kondisi Overbought Batasi Laju Penguatan Euro & Pound

Technical Analysis

EUR-USD
Euro menunjukkan pola bullish continuation dalam uptrend channel, seharusnya dukung potensi kenaikan kendati terbatas. Indikator ADX meningkat dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih dukung potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut. Support berada di 1.4460/1.4380. Resistance berada di 1.4630 (161.8) /1.4750. Euro menunjukkan impulse wave 5/3 untuk target 1.4628/1.5000, selama tidak menembus 1.4260. Buy 1.4360 target 1.4500, Buy 1.4250 target 1.4350 stop 1.4070, buy 1.4450 target 1.4750 stop 1.4200. sell 1.4630 & 1.4750 target 1.4400, hold buy 1.4455 trgt 1.4640. stop 1.4455, sell break 1.4200 tgt 1.4000.
USD-JPY
USDJPY menunjukkan pola candle long bearish dan berada dalam pola downtrend channel dengan resistance di 93.50. Penutupan dibawah channel di 93.50 akan mengarahkan USDJPY ke target low kemarin di 91.75 (triple bottom). Indikator ADX meningkat, MACD bearish, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan selama bertahan di diatas 91.75. Resistance berada di 93.80/94.80, support di 91.75/90.50. Sell 94.70 target 93.00 stop 60p. sell 95.65 target 94.00 stop 60p. Sell 93.50 stop 60p target 91.50 & sell 92.50 target 91.70 stop 92.00. hold buy 92.00 target 93.80 stop 91.00, sell break 91.50 target 90.50.
GBP-USD
GBP menunjukkan pola bullish continuation diikuti signal breakout channel dan berada di atas middle channel di 1.6563, diikuti indikator ADX flat dan MACD di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas selama ditutup dibawah 1.6580. EW menunjukkan GBP telah menyelesaikan wave 4 untuk target impulse 5 wave dalam wave 3. Buy 1.6150 target 1.6350 stop 1.6050. sell break 1.6450 target 1.6200 stop 60p, buy 1.6300 target 1.6550. Sell break 1.5950 target 1.5800 stop 60p. 1.6250 target 1.6450. hold Sell 1.6550 target 1.6400 stop 1.6620. Buy break 1.6620 target 1.6750
AUD-USD
(AUD masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan trend bullish jangka pendek, diikuti pola bullish continuation (long bullish candle) sementara indikator ADX lmenguat, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan selama di tutup diatas downchannel 0.8618. Resistance di 0.8684/0.8764, support di 0.8563/0.8505. Buy 0.8500 target 0.8500, sell 0.8680 target 0.8300 & sell 0.8800 stop 0.8620.

Market Tips: US Markets Could Climb 15-20% in Year-End

By: CNBC.com
Global stocks were lower on Wednesday, taking a breather after hitting 11-month highs the previous day as gold breeched the $1,000 an ounce mark. Experts tell CNBC world markets will continue to make gains, with the U.S. possibly rising another 15-20 percent.

US Market Has "Underpriced" a Recovery
The U.S. market has "underpriced" a recovery, believes Karl Eggerss, chief trader at LafferFrishberg.com. He tells CNBC that is why he sees another 15-20% upside for the U.S. markets.

Global Markets to Make Further Gains
Clay Carter, head of international equities of Perennial Investment Partners expects markets to continue to move higher till year-end.

Developed World Taking the Wind Out of Asia

The robust recovery in developed markets is working against Asian stocks, says Mark Matthews, Asia Pacific strategist at Fox Pitt Kelton. He reveals how he is investing in light of this.

Bet on Indonesia & Singapore
Invest in Asian countries with a large retail investor base, such as Indonesia and Singapore, advises Mark Matthews, Asia Pacific strategist at Fox Pitt Kelton. He shares his strategy, in this installment of "Protect Your Wealth."

Broad Dollar Weakness Seen in Q4
David Mann, FX strategist, global markets at Standard Chartered Bank expects to see broad dollar weakness in the fourth quarter.

Dollar Poised for Another Down Leg
The U.S. dollar looks like it has the makings of another potential down leg, says David deGaris, director & senior economist at NAB Global Markets Research.

Hold Cash
Juliana Roadley, market analyst at Commsec tells Tony Cripps, head of global markets at HSBC Australia, CNBC that investors are looking to safe havens of gold and holding their cash.

Upbeat on Techs

Karl Eggerss, chief trader at LafferFrishberg.com, is upbeat on the tech sector as he sees corporates going through a huge product upgrade cycle.

Eyeing M&A in Resources & Telcos
Paul Chau, head of M&A advisory at KPMG tells CNBC that investors should keep an eye on M&A activities in the basic resources and the telecom sectors.

Michael Price Says Stocks May Climb, Repeat 1975-1982

(Bloomberg) -- Billionaire investor Michael Price said the U.S. stock market resembles 1975-1982, when the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index doubled, and he’s finding value in small banks. “We made very good returns from ‘75 to ‘82,” Price, who managed some of the best-performing mutual funds during the 1980s and 1990s and now runs New York-based MFP Investors LLC, said in an interview broadcast on Bloomberg Radio and Television. “Pick your spots, pick your stocks, do your work, and somebody’s going to be selling something too cheaply.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aWkKVRDtGIN0

Wednesday, September 9, 2009

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Sep 09 09 06:40 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's break of 71.60 resistance suggests that fall from 75.0 is merely a correction in the larger rally and should have completed at 67.34 already. Intraday bias is turned back to the upside and further rise should now be seen to 75.0 first and then long term fibonacci resistance at 76.77 (38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2). ON the downside, below 68.96 will in turn suggest that fall from 75.0 is still in progress and break of 67.43 will target 65.23 support next.

In the bigger picture, there is no change in the view that rise from 33.2 is a correction to whole down trend form 147.27. Question remains on whether such rally has completed at 75.0 already. Crude oil is now at important medium term trend line support. Sustained trading below will be the first alert that such rise has finished. Break of 58.32 will confirm this case and turn outlook bearish for 33.2 low next. On the upside, while another rise cannot be ruled out for the moment, strong resistance is expected as crude oil enters into 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone (38.2% and 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2) and bring reversal finally.

Gold Daily Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Sep 09 09 06:41 ET/
Comex Gold (GC)

Gold retreats mildly after hitting 1009.7 and break of 995.9 minor support suggests that an intraday top is in place after hitting 1007.7 resistance. Intraday bias is turned neutral for the moment and some pull back might be seen, possibly to 4 hours 55 EMA (now at 981.3). Nevertheless, downside should be contained by 970.5 fibo support (50% retracement of 931.3 to 1009.7) and bring rally resumption. Above 1009.7 will target key resistance level at 1033.9 high next and then 61.8% projection of 681 to 1007.7 from 931.3 at 1133.2.

In the bigger picture, as noted before, rise from 681 is tentatively treated as resumption of long term up trend from 99 low of 253 after expanding triangle from 1033.9 has completed last year. Sustained break of 1033.9 will confirm long term up trend resumption and should target 61.8% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1160 next. On the downside, break of 931.3 support is needed to be the first signal that Gold has topped out in medium term. Otherwise, outlook remains bullish even in case of deep pull back.

Indonesia Rupiah May Rise to 10-Month High: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s rupiah, Asia’s best performer this year, is set to gain 0.9 percent this week to a more than 10-month high, according to Forecast Singapore Pte, citing a trading momentum indicator.The dollar-rupiah’s Moving Average Convergence-Divergence, or MACD, fell below its signal line yesterday, indicating the rupiah may extend its rally, Pak Lai Ng, a Singapore-based technical analyst at Forecast, said today. The currency surged 9.7 percent against the greenback this year.“It’s a bearish signal for the dollar,” Ng said in an interview. The rupiah may see “test” 9,850 because the “fall of the dollar has been quite sharp,” he said.

The rupiah rose 0.6 percent to 9,938 per dollar as of 2 p.m. in Jakarta, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The currency reached 9,850 on Aug. 4, the strongest level since Oct. 22.The dollar’s MACD versus the rupiah was 9.3 compared with 9.5 for the signal line yesterday, based on data compiled by Bloomberg. MACD charts can indicate whether a price shift is a change in trend or a short-term deviation by comparing moving averages based on nine-, 12- and 26-day periods.In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

Daily Elliot Wave Forex/Cross Rates/Commodity

By Ahmad Mudjo

Download Article EW

Elliot Wave U.S. Dollar Index - Weekly, Daily

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com |

The weighted index of the other currencies against the dollar give a fair reflection of the overall market sentiment towards the greenback. Most professional traders look towards the Treasury yield and dollar index activity to gauge their dollar trade potential. The index is made up of euro, yen, pound, Cad, Swedish kroner, aussie, and the swissy. The index was developed in March 1973, after the gold standard was scrapped, and its value is a reflection of the value of the Usd now, compared to what it was worth then. A read of 75.00 on the index equates to the Usd value being 75% of what it was three decades ago.Weekly chart trend: Short. Main price points: 77.43. Looking for: Wave B
On the weekly dollar index chart, the flat correction is still not completed and confirmed, as the market did not break through the upper resistance line and wave IV highs yet. Actually, traders should be looking for another push down, near to the 75 support zone once the 77.43 low and 61.8% Fibonacci support is out. This could be the final push of a red wave V leg, before the wave B pattern will be completed.



















Daily chart trend: Short. Main price points: 77.43, and 79.51. Looking for: Wave V
On a daily dollar index chart we are looking for an ending diagonal in wave V position with a blue wave III) in progress. If this is the case, the prices must not trade above the blue wave II) high 79.51 otherwise the diagonal count will be invalidated. As long the structure remains intact, we will be looking for a move lower near to the 75 support zone, where a huge long turning point may appear.

The Next Leg Down Will See Violent Selling

By David Spurr on September 9, 2009
When you think about the “herd” mentality and where we’ve been and where we’re headed - It’s easy to see that the next leg down could result in very violent aggressive selling, unlike anything that we’ve ever witnessed in our lifetimes. Next time around, some of the options the FED has to keep the ship afloat may be more limited. This is a bullet list of some of the issues that will accelerate the selling - when it does happen.

* Weakening Dollar
* Higher Interest Rates - More Expensive Debt - Loss of Risk Appetite.
* Bloated Fed Balance Sheet - Unable to Hold More worthless assets
* Increased Losses - Commercial and Residential.
* Less “Gullible” public - “We won’t get fooled again” mentality.
* Panic Selling - Buy and Hold Mentality becomes a thing of the past.
* Sellers that have gotten “Close” to even will sell and go to safe assets
* Money Markets start to Break the Buck - Government refuses to back CP market
* Yuan/Remnibi Offshore Bonds - Options for the rest of the world.
* Dollar Failure - as reserve currency - US Government Losing Control of Finances
* 10% Unemployment and Rising -
* Declining Tax Revenues - Cities and Towns.
* Angry Electorate

UBS Cuts Dollar Forecast on Risk Appetite, Stock Gain

(Bloomberg) -- UBS AG, the world’s second-largest currency trader, lowered its forecasts for the dollar against currencies such as the euro and the pound, citing improving risk appetite and gains in stocks. The dollar will weaken to $1.45 per euro in a month, compared with a previous forecast of $1.40, and it will fall to $1.63 per pound, versus an earlier prediction of $1.57, Mansoor Mohi-uddin, chief currency strategist at UBS in Zurich, wrote in a research note today.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aZQOTHjX97NI

Credit Suisse Strategists See More Gains in Global Stocks

(Bloomberg) -- Credit Suisse Group AG strategists said investors should favor stocks over bonds and cash and forecast gains in equity indexes worldwide ranging from 12 percent for Europe and 23 percent for Japan through mid-2010 as the economy recovers.
“This is the best phase of the economic cycle,” wrote a team of strategists led by Andrew Garthwaite in London in a report today. “We do not exclude a period of near-term consolidation, given that some of our tactical indicators are sending a signal of caution. Yet, other indicators suggest it is too early to sell.”

Credit Suisse forecasts the S&P 500 to rise 13 percent to 1,150 by mid-2010, according to a note to clients today.

Morgan Stanley and BNP Paribas SA were raised to “overweight” by analysts at JPMorgan Chase & Co., who wrote in a note today they are “switching preference from investment banks to credit banks on regulatory changes.” The two stocks were raised from “neutral,” the note said. The analysts increased their price estimate on stock of Goldman Sachs Group Inc., Societe Generale SA and Credit Suisse Group AG, while cutting UBS AG shares to “neutral” from “overweight.”

Japan’s Big Banks May Need More Capital, UBS Says

Japan’s three biggest banks may be forced to raise capital as central bankers and regulators adopt stricter requirements, UBS AG analyst Nana Otsuki said. “Japan’s megabanks may need to raise capital, including issuing shares,” Tokyo-based Otsuki said today. “They have less leeway than major European and U.S. banks.”Central bankers and regulators adopted new standards on Sept. 6 for the global financial industry to prevent a repeat of the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. Financial firms should also introduce a leverage ratio and devise ways to boost reserves when the economy is robust, regulators said in a statement the same day.

American International Group Inc., the insurer bailed out by the U.S., declined in New York trading after Credit Suisse Group AG cut it to “underperform” because there may be little left for shareholders following asset sales.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aHUZSp6GoV6k

U.S. Stocks at Risk for 20 Percent Decline: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. stocks rally is “maturing” and the risk of a 20 percent retreat in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index increased after sellers became more aggressive than buyers, Bank of America said. Mary Ann Bartels, an analyst at Bank of America, said her volume intensity model, used to capture the market’s money flows, showed investor buying peaked last week and selling gained strength. That’s signaling the 50 percent rally in the S&P 500 from a 12-year low on March 9 may be near an end, she said. Technical analysts study chart patterns to predict prices.
Selling pressure was the third of five indicators watched by Bartels to signal increased probability of a 15 percent to 20 percent “correction” in the benchmark for American equity, she said. Two others were triggered last month when China’s Shanghai Composite Index began a 16 percent slump and Investors Intelligence said bearish sentiment among newsletter writers shrank to less than 20 percent.

“These are all signs of a maturing rally,” Bartels, who ranked second among analysts who study price charts in Institutional Investor magazine’s most recent survey, wrote in a note published today. “The risk of a deeper correction is increasing.”

The two indicators that continue to support the equities rally are technology share outperformance and an increasing number of stocks trading above their 200-day average price, Bartels wrote. A measure of technology shares in the S&P 500 has jumped 39 percent this year, more than the 13 percent gain for the broader index. The percentage of companies listed on the New York Stock Exchange trading above their 200-day moving average rose to 91 percent in August, the highest in five years.
“The S&P 500 remains in an uptrend, but the data challenges how long this can be maintained,” Bartels said.

Daily Dow Jones Recommended Levels

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade | Sep 09 09 03:37 GMT |

DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 9438.70 and 9414.23(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 9385.12, where correction also can be. Then follows 9360.00. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 9345.70. Continuation will bring 9311.30 and 9270.00. Today's resistance: - 9516.10(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 9543.62, where a correction may happen. Then follows 9588.80, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 9627.11. Continuation would bring 9646.77.

Laporan Fundamental & Rumor Saham IHSG 09-09-2009

Research JP Morgan Sec: Overweight PGAS target Rp 4,700

Research Kim Eng Sec: Buy WIKA target Rp 400

Research Indo Premier Sec: Buy ANTM target Rp 2,700

Research Bahana Sec: Buy WIKA target Rp 420

Katarina Incar Patrakom
HARGA saham PT Katarina Utama Tbk (RINA) tengah diburu sejumlah broker, sehingga harganya berpotensi mencapai level Rp 180-185 dalam jangka pendek. Sumber Investor Daily mengungkapkan, adanya kabar di pasar yang menyebutkan bahwa perseroan tengah mengincar mayoritas saham PT Patra Telekomunikasi Indonesia, anak usaha PT Telkom Tbk, menjadi momentum kenaikan harga RINA. Pada perdagangan kemarin, RINA ditutup menguat Rp 8 (5,63%) ke posisi Rp 150.

Cermati Saham Surya Semesta
HARGA saham PT Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk (SSIA) berpeluang naik ke level Rp 550, karena perseroan disebut-sebut akan melangsungkan pemecahan nilai saham (stock split). Sumber Investor Daily mengatakan, rasio stock split perseroan yang beredar di pasar adalah 1:5. Selain itu, kata dia, pengerjaan proyek resor baru di Bali dan mal di Jakarta juga bakal berdampak positif. Pada perdagangan kemarin, SSIA ditutup naik Rp 35 (9,21%) ke level Rp 415.

Goldman Sachs menaikkan prediksi target logam karena pemulihan ekonomi global menurunkan inventory dan meningkatkan biaya output. Tembaga kontrak 3-bulan diprediksi meningkat ke US$ 7.650 di akhir tahun 2010. Aluminum akan menguat ke $2,050 a ton, dari prediksi sebelumnya of $1,950, and nickel akan menguat ke $18,800 a ton, dibanding perkiraan sebelumnya of $15,200. Analis memprediksi surplus aluminium of 1.78 million tons dalam 1 tahun, merosot dari 2008 oversupply of 2.27 juta di tahun 2008. Surplus akan menjadi 622,000 tons di 2010. Prediksi seng diturunkan menjadi $2,170 a ton, dari $2,600, karena besarnya supply dari China.

IHSG Hari Ini Diperkirakan Rebound
IHSG pada perdagangan hari ini diperkirakan masih melanjutkan penguatan. Pelemahan US Dollar menyebabkan harga komoditas tambang dan minyak naik. Indeks hari ini diperdagangan di kisaran 2.347-2.384. IHSG saat ini menguat 6.83 di 2,377 (pukul 10.05 WIB), berkat kenaikan harga saham komoditi setelah harga minyak mencapai tertinggi US$ 71.56, emas $ 1,007.60, diikuti kenaikan harga nikel dan CPO kemarin. Indeks saham regional Asia mayoritas terkoreksi, meski DJIA menguat 56 poin di 9497.34. JP Morgan downgrade saham Jepang. Nikkei 225 melemah 34.75 di 10,358.48, Hang Seng -87.25 di 20,982.56, Shanghai +15.72 di 2,946.19, TAIEX Taiwan +8.46 di 7,322.45, Kospi Korea -11.45 di 1,608.24, S&P/ASX Australia +7.20 di 4,531.50, STI Singapura -12.88 di 2,648.03.

Rupiah diperdagangkan menguat ke Rp 9,928 terhadap dolar, setelah dolar AS anjlok ke level terendah sejak November 2008 berkat kekhawatiran mengenai status mata uang cadangan global dan penguatan harga komoditi emas dan minyak kemarin. USD-JPY menguat 0.0078 di 92.3330, AUD-USD melemah 0.8601 di 0.8601, USD-SGD melemah 0.0015 di 1.4246, USD-KRW melemah 7.5000 di 1225.70, USD-PHP melemah 0.0750 di 48.28, USD-CNY menguat 0.0009 di 6.885,

Saat ini ada 11 perusahaan di Indonesia yang besar kemungkinan IPO hingga akhir tahun dari 20 calon emiten yang siap-siap masuk BEI. BEI sendiri menargetkan tahun ini ada 15 perusahaan yang IPO. Terlebih lagi bila calon emiten besar jadi IPO, seperti Bank Tabungan Negara dengan target emisi Rp 1,5-2 triliun, PT Pembangunan Perumahan (Rp 1,4 triliun), PT Maspion (Rp 1 triliun), serta induk usaha Berau Coal dengan nilai emisi Rp 2-3 triliun.

Fortis: Industri Reksadana Syariah Akan Berkembang
Walaupun pertumbuhan reksadana syariah hanya sekitar 3%, tetapi pertumbuhan industri reksadana syariah akan tetap berkembang. Saat ini, Industri reksadana syariah masih kecil yaitu sekitar Rp3 triliun pada tahun 2009.

PT Aneka Tambang Tbk (ANTM) tengah melakukan due dilligence atas rencana akuisisi beberapa kuasa pertambangan (KP) di Kalimantan. Adapun dana yang disiapkan untuk akuisisi KP mencapai US$30 juta.
Antm Kerok 300-400 ribu Bauksit Tayan
FeNi III Antam Beroperasi September
Antam Targetkan Penjualan Emas 11 Ribu Ton

IPO Kembali Marak

Akhir September, Arwana Operasikan Pabrik Baru
PT Arwana Citramulia Tbk (ARNA) akan mengoperasikan pabrik baru 3C pada akhir September 2009. Pabrik yang berlokasi di Surabaya, Jawa Timur itu menelan dana hingga Rp 180 miliar.

PT BCA Finance telah menyalurkan pembiayaan kendaraan bermotor roda empat sebesar Rp 7 triliun hingga Agustus 2009. Dengan pencapaian tersebut, maka anak usaha BCA ini telah mencapai 63% dari target pembiayaan 2009 sebesar Rp 11 triliun. Presiden Direktur BCA Finance Roni Haslim mengatakan, pembiayaan baru sebesar Rp 7 triliun tersebut disalurkan untuk pembiayaan sekitar 65 ribu unit mobil baru maupun bekas.

FREN Tawarkan Rights Issue Rp 65 per Saham
Para kreditur memiliki batas waktu sampai 12 September untuk mengambil keputusan.

BKSL Konversi Utang
Dampaknya, porsi kepemilkan pemegang saham lama BKSL turun sebesar 5,07%.

Dolar AS Loyo, Emas Menembus US$ 1.000
Selama data-data ekonomi AS masih negatif, harga emas akan tetap bertengger di atas US$ 1.000 per troy ounce.

ELTY Rela Berbagi Saham demi Memuluskan Bisnis Tol
Meneropong prospek saham ELTY setelah melepas sebagian saham di Bakrie Toll Road.

Amari Turut Menguasai META
Amari masuk ke META melalui pasar dengan membeli 5,16% saham publik.

Harga Tender Offer AQUA Rp 450.000
Harga penawaran ini pun 124,89% di atas harga wajar hasil penilai independen.

INCO Jamin Kebocoran Tungku Tak Ganggu Produksi
Satu dari empat tungku peleburan nikel INCO di Soroako, Luwu Timur, Sulawesi Selatan bocor sekitar pukul 22.00 WITA, Senin (7/9).

WIKA Optimis Penuhi Target Kontrak Baru 2009
PT Wijaya Karya Tbk (WIKA) optimis dapat memperoleh kontrak baru sesuai target 2009 mencapai RP 9,7 triliun. Sebab per 31 Agustus sudah memperoleh kontrak baru mencapai Rp 7,1 triliun.

DOID: Buma Jajaki Obligasi US$600 Jt
PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama (Buma), perusahaan yang tengah proses backdoor listing dengan diakuisisi oleh DOID berencana menerbitkan kombinasi obligasi dan pinjaman senilai US$600 juta atau Rp6 triliun. Disinyalir perolehan dana untuk refinancing utangnya senilai US$310 juta. Saat ini BUMA memiliki 12 kontrak pertambangan batubara senilai US$5,3 miliar atau 7,7x pendapatan FY08 Rp6,77 triliun.

BSDE: Penjualan 2Q09 Naik 49% yoy
Penjualan BSDE 2Q09 naik 49% yoy dari Rp144 miliar jadi Rp214 miliar atau melonjak 171% QoQ, dipicu lonjakan permintaan rumah tinggal (landed residensial) yang berkontribusi 60-65% dari pendapatannya.

Jual, Target Saham Leyand Rp220
Meski tengah mengincar saham PT Nusantara Infrastructure Tbk (META) saham Leyand International Tbk (LAPD) tidak likuid.

Dato' Low Tuck Kwong Beli Saham BYAN
Dato' Low Tuck Kwong telah melakukan pembelian terhadap 400 ribu lembar saham PT Bayan Resources Tbk (BYAN).

Peluang di Balik Revisi Target INDF
PT Indofood Sukses Makmur (INDF) terus mendapat rekomendasi positif. Target harga emiten consumer goods ini pun dinaikkan ke kisaran Rp 3.000 per unitnya. Kesempatan bagus untuk para investor.

Indosat Peroleh Tambahan Frekuensi 3G
PT Indosat Tbk (ISAT) mendapat tambahan frekuensi jaringan bergerak seluler generasi ke tiga (3G).

PT Semen Gresik Tbk (SMGR) terus mengembangkan sayapnya dengan membangun pabrik di beberapa daerah di Indonesia. Semen Gresik bersiap membangun pabrik semen di Kalimantan Timur (Kaltim). "Pasokan semen di Kaltim dipasok Semen Gresik dan Semen Tonasa. Dengan adanya pabrik di Kaltim itu, akan jauh lebih efektif," kata Kepala Divisi Komunikasi PT SMGR Syaifudin Zuhri kepada wartawan di Surabaya, Selasa (8/9/2009).

Sumber: Reuters, Bloomberg, CNBC, Inilah.com, Kontan, Investor-daily, Detik.com.
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Kenaikan Harga Komoditi & Isu Positif Sejumlah Emiten Topang Kinerja IHSG

Kenaikan harga komoditi logam (emas capai tertinggi US$ 1,007,45/troy ons kemarin) dan kenaikan indeks saham regional Asia di tengah liburnya pasar saham AS (Labor Day), berkat isu diversifikasi cadangan devisa China yang menyebabkan terpuruknya nilai dolar AS ke level terendah 1 tahun. Kuatnya sentimen positif di regional Asia paska pertemuan G20 dan kebijakan China di akhir pekan lalu masih terasa hingga kemarin. Penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar AS hingga menembus level Rp 10,000 (ditutup di Rp 9,985), ikut memberikan katalis positif kepada saham-saham unggulan. IHSG menguat 30.910 poin (1.32%) ditutup di 2,371.302, dengan nilai transaksi Rp 3.954 triliun. Investor asing kembali membukukan net buying Rp 168.6 kemarin, dibandingkan net buying Rp 182.48 miliar (07/09).

Indeks saham MSCI Asia-Pacific menguat kemarin, mendorong indeks MSCI ke level tertinggi 1-tahun, karena data keyakinan bisnis Australia meningkat ke level tertinggi 6-tahun, harga memori komputer meningkat dan harga emas menguat diatas US$ 1,000/ons. Indeks regional Asia juga menguat berkat lebih baik dari perkiraan earning JVC Kenwwod Holdings Jepang, SK Energy Co Korea, dan isu kabinet Taiwan.

IHSG Outlook
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 30.55 8% +17.% 6.50% 2.75% 4.0%
STI 20.67 16% +2.6% 0.69% -0.70% -10.1%
KLCI 14.8 10% -1.1% 2.0% 3.00% -3.9%
SET 28.16 4% -6.8% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 32.37 36% +27% 5.31% -1.40% 7.9%
N225 44.94 -1% -16.6% 0.10% -0.10% -9.7%
HSI 22.2 19% -7.1% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 13.56 3% -18.5% 0.25% -1.4% -3.6%
* Negara Bersangkutan

IHSG diperkirakan dapat melanjutkan momentum kenaikan, karena imbas kenaikan harga komoditi setelah harga emas menembus level tertinggi 6 bulan di US$1,000/troy kemarin, mendorong kenaikan harga minyak (US$ 71.56/barel, target US$ 75/77; selama bertahan diatas US$ 66) dan logam lainnya, seharusnya positif untuk saham komoditi. Momentum kenaikan harga saham regional yang masih mendapatkan keuntungan paska pertemuan G20, kebijakan China untuk saham China dan data payroll AS di akhir pekan lalu, meningkatkan daya tarik untuk saham karena investor kembali berani untuk beresiko, dapat menopang trend bullish IHSG jangka pendek. Penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar AS (potensi penguatan terbatas di Rp 9,910/9,960) memberikan katalis positif untuk saham yang memiliki sensitifitas terhadap pergerakan dolar AS. Hasil lapkeu semester 1 2009 (PTBA) dari sejumlah emiten unggulan (lapkeu PT Bumi Resources diperkirakan positif) dan isu positif dari sejumlah emiten (PGAS,
ANTM, DOID, JSMR, INDF, UNVR), seharusnya dapat mempertahankan IHSG diatas level 2,360 hari ini.

Meski laju kenaikan terbatas berkat perkiraan aksi profit-taking di sejumlah saham unggulan setelah menguat 3 sesi perdagangan terakhir, diikuti mahalnya valuasi IHSG diantara indeks saham regional Asia Tenggara, isu inflasi domestik dan prediksi Goldman Sachs bahwa BI akan naikkan suku bunga di awal tahun 2010, diikuti ancaman dari sektor perbankan AS dan trend kenaikan pengangguran global masih membayangi kinerja IHSG dalam waktu dekat ini.

Stock Picks:Average last 11 week +69.03%. Target 10-30%, Risk < -10%
Hold Buy: ASII, ANTM, BUMI, BNBR, BSDE, BBRI, DOID, HEXA, ITMG, INDF, JSMR, KIJA, PGAS, UNVR. Closed posisi di sesi 1 hari ini.

Stock Picks:
• PTBA : Buy target Rp 15,800
• SDRA : Speculative Buy target Rp 180

Global Outlook
Dibukanya kembali pasar saham AS dengan kecenderungan menguat di awal pekan ini, seharusnya masih dapat menopang kinerja indeks saham regional Asia, paska pertemuan G20, kebijakan China untuk mengangkat harga saham domestik dan data tenaga kerja AS memicu spekulasi pemulihan ekonomi global. Sementara survei Bloomberg di bulan lalu menunjukkan keuntungan perusahaan di indeks S&P 500 akan meningkat 25% di 2010, lebih cepat 10.9x dari prediksi petumbuhan ekonomi (rasio 6:1) dan prediksi Credit Suisse bahwa indeks S&P 500 akan meningkat 13% menjadi 1,150 di pertengahan tahun 2010, ikut memberikan sentimen positif kepada Wall Street dan regional Asia. Sementara kenaikan harga emas melampaui US$ 1,000/ons untuk pertama kali dalam 6 bulan dapat mengangkat harga saham komoditi. Diupgradenya target harga saham General Electric AS oleh JP Morgan dan merger & akusisi Cadbury Plc oleh Kraft Food Inc, ikut angkat sentimen investor. Meski momentum kenaikan indeks
regional terbatas karena masih terbebani oleh kekhawatiran sektor perbankan AS dan trend kenaikan pengangguran global. OPEC mempertahankan output minyak semalam, pasar menunggu data crude inventory AS malam ini. Data Consumer Credit AS anjlok $ 22.6 miliar di bulan Agustus.

Technical Analysis:
IHSG masih berpotensi menguat hari ini meski terbatas karena perkiraan profit-taking, menunjukkan pola candle long closing marubozu (bullish continuation) dan breakout formasi descending triangle (trendline 2,360), diikuti signal positif dari MA (5/10/20 day). Tetapi kondisi MACD yang overbought dan divergence dan ADX menunjukkan flat (ADX- & ADX+ crossing), seharusnya membatasi potensi kenaikan pada hari ini. IHSG akan mendapatkan sejumlah resistansi di 2387/2,411 (2,360-2,387 sell area) yang menunjukkan pola congestion. Sementara perubahan trend IHSG menjadi bearish dapat terjadi jika IHSG ditutup dibawah 2,313 (2 hari konfirmasi) untuk target 2,271/2,243 (down channel). Hitungan EW menunjukkan IHSG telah menyelesaikan wave A, membuat 3 wave dalam koreksi B dengan perkiraan 2387/2411 sebagai toppish dalam 4)/ (4).
Resistance: 2382.74/2363.74/2354.24/2347.32. PP 2335.24
Support : 2331.77/2322.27/2306.73/2297.23

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Aksi Profit-Taking & Lemahnya Momentum Batasi Potensi Kenaikan Indeks Regional

Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)
Indeks Nikkei berhasil menguat 0,63% kemarin, dimana Showa Shell Sekiyu pimpin kenaikan seiring rencana perusahan itu yang akan membangun pabrik tenaga surya baru. Saham bank termasuk Mizuho Financial Group turun setelah bank sentral dan regulator menyetujui proposal yang mengharuskan bank meningkatkan kualitas permodalannya. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup naik 72,29 poin, atau 0,70%, ke posisi 10.393,23.
Indeks menunjukkan pola uptrend channel dan pola candle three white soldier di daily chart, dapat menopang kinerja indek hari ini. Indikator ADX rebound, MACD berada di teritorial bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi kenaikan hari ini. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks saat ini berada dalam wave koreksi 2/B dalam koreksi ABC dalam subwave (4). Resistance di 10540 (upper channel)/10680 (former high). Support 10355 (channel support)/10,276 (20-day MA). Perkiraan range hari ini 10300-10500. Rekomendasi Sell 10540 target 10200 stp 100p, Buy 10270 target 10650 stop 100p, buy 10,000 target 10400, Sell 10,650 target 10,400. (+30p)
Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Bursa Korsel mengakhiri perdagangan kemarin positif, dipicu naiknya saham yang berhubungan dengan otomotif, dimana Samsung SDI, produsen aki kendaran berhasil menguat di tengah meningkatnya proyeksi sektor tersebut. Sementara itu, SK Energy yang berhasil mencatatkan level tertingginya dalam 3 bulan terakhir, turut menyumbang kenaikan indeks. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup menguat 11,12 poin, atau 0,69%, ke posisi 1.619,69 poin.
Indeks kembali menunjukkan signal negatif dari pola candle high wave dan signal divergence negatif (volume). Kendati telah breakout dari symmetrical triangle, diikuti kondisi Indikator ADX lemah, MACD masih bullish & divergence, seharusnya mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas. Hitungan EW menunjukkan indeks berada di wave 5/3. Resistance di 213.65 (trendline)/218.05 (161.8 FR). Support 209.80 /207.85. Rekomendasi Buy 209.30 & 208.00 target 213.00 stop 100p, Sell 212.30 & 213.60 target 209.50, Sell break 206.50 target 203.00 stop 60p. Buy 203.00 target 207.50 stop 50p. Sell 218.00 target 209.00 stop 100p. (+10p)
Hang Seng Futures Kontrak September (HSIU9)
Indeks Hang Seng ditutup menguat 1,53% kemarin, ke level penutupan tertinggi dalam 3 pekan terakhir, menyusul positifnya pasar saham Cina. Hijaunya saham Cina berkat langkah Beijing yang menambah quota investasi bagi investor institusional asing menjadi $1 miliar dari sebelumnya $800 juta. Indeks Hang Seng .HSI ditutup menguat 310,69 poin, atau 1,53%, ke posisi 20.629,31, level penutupan tertinggi sejak pertengahan Agustus.
Indeks Hang Seng diperkirakan akan terkoreksi hari ini setelah 4 sesi sebelumnya melonjak, kendati adanya penguatan diawal perdagangan menyusul positfnya bursa regional menyusul hijaunya penutupan bursa Eropa dan liburnya pasar AS kemarin. Namun, pergerakan indeks masih dipengaruhi fluktuasi saham Cina.
Dalam chart daily, Indeks menunjukkan signal positif dari pola candle long opening marubozu dan pola uptrend channel setelah breakout descending triangle, seharusnya dukung potensi kenaikan hari ini. Indikator ADX meningkat, MACD bullish, seharusnya dukung potensi kenaikan. Indeks akan mendapatkan sejumlah resistance 21205/21625. Support di 20700/20470. Hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan proses impulse 1 / 5 . Rekomendasi : Buy 20760 target 21200 stop 60p. Sell 21200 & 21650 target 20,700 stop 100p. Sell break 20700 target 20350 stop 100p. Buy 20350 target 20750 stop 100p, Buy 19750 target 20200, sell break 20250 target 19800 stop 100p. (-100p-100p)

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Faktor Technical Breakout Picu Penguatan EUR-USD Lebih Lanjut

Technical Analysis

EUR-USD
Euro telah menembus double top di 1.4445 dan pola candle long bulish, seharusnya dukung potensi kenaikan pada hari ini. Indikator ADX meninkat dan MACD bullish, seharusnya masih dukung potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut. Support berada di 1.4250/1.4330. Resistance berada di 1.4628 (161.8) /1.4750. Euro telah mengahiri koreksi wave 4 untuk target 1.4628/1.5000, selama tidak menembus 1.4260. Buy 1.4270 target 1.4500, Buy 1.4170 target 1.4350 stop 1.4070, buy 1.4450 target 1.4750 stop 1.4200. sell 1.4630 & 1.4750 target 1.4400, hold buy 1.4455 trgt 1.4750. sell break 1.4200 tgt 1.4000. (-60-30p)
USD-JPY
USDJPY menunjukkan pola candle everning star meski berada dibawah upper channel di 93.50 dalam pola downtrend channel. Penutupan dibawah channel di 93.50 akan mengarahkan USDJPY ke target low kemarin di 91.75 (triple bottom). Indikator ADX meninkat, MACD bearish, seharusnya membatasi potensi penurunan selama bertahan di diatas 91.75. Resistance berada di 93.80/94.80, support di 91.75/90.50. Sell 94.70 target 93.00 stop 60p. sell 95.65 target 94.00 stop 60p. Sell 93.80 stop 60p target 91.50 & Buy 92.50 target 93.80 stop 92.00. hold buy 92.00 target 93.80, sell break 91.60 target 90.50.
GBP-USD
GBP menunjukkan pla bulish engulfing, diikuti signal breakout channel dan berada di atas upper channel di 1.6405, diikuti indikator ADX flat dan MACD di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas selama ditutup dibawah 1.6580. EW menunjukkan GBP telah menyelesaikan wave 4 untuk target impulse 5 wave dalam wave 5. Buy 1.6150 target 1.6350 stop 1.6050. sell 1.6450 target 1.6200 stop 60p, buy 1.6400 target 1.6350. Sell break 1.5950 target 1.5800 stop 60p. 1.6150 target 1.6450. hold Sell 1.6550 target 1.6400. Buy break 1.6600 target 1.6750 AUD-USD

(AUD masih berada dalam uptrend channel dan trend bullish jangka pendek, diikuti pola bullish continuation (long bullish candle) sementara indikator ADX lmenguat, MACD masih bullish, mendukung potensi kenaikan terbatas selama di tutup dibawah upper channel 0.8456. Resistance di 0.8478/0.8600, support di 0.8365/0.8305. Buy 0.8300 target 0.8500, sell 0.8680 target 0.8300 & sell 0.8800 stop 0.8620. (-60-60p)

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