Friday, July 10, 2009

Kondisi Teknikal Euro & Pound di Awal Pekan Mendekati Oversold

Technical Analysis

EUR-USD
(+140+50p) Euro masih berada dalam bearish uptrend channel di desending triangle, diikuti pola candle bullish engulfing, indikator ADX menurun, stochastic dead cross dan MACD masih berada di teritorial bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung perkiraan penurunan terbatas pada hari ini. Resistance berada di 1.4030/1.4147 (trendline), support berada di 1.3854 (trendline support). Euro berada di dalam wave proses ii dalam wave 3 zig zag, untuk target $ 1.4717, selama tidak mencapai dibawah 1.2878. Buy 1.3750 & buy 1.3850 target 1.4050, sell break 1.3700 target 1.3450 stop 60-, sell 1.4050 target 1.3900, buy break 1.4050 target 1.4140 (-60p)

USD-JPY
USDJPY masih berada dalam pola downtrend channel di daily chart, meski penurunan tertahan di lower channel di 91.85, bilamana ditutup dibawah level tersebut akan memutarbalikan trend menjadi bearish target 85/88. Indikator ADX meningkat, stochastic dead cross, MACD masih berada dalam teritorial bearish, seharusnya mendukung peluang technical rebound jika gagal ditutup diatas 91.82. Resistance berada di 94.05, support di 91.80. Buy break 93.60 & buy break 94.65 target 96.00 stop dibawah 60p. sell Sell 94.50 target 92.00 stop 60p. Buy 92.00 target 93.50 stop 100p.

GBP-USD
(+200p) GBP menunjukkan pola candle breakaway bullish, diikuti indikator ADX flat, stochastic bearish dan MACD masih berada di teritorial bullish, mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas selama tidak ditutup dibawah 1.6025 (76.4% FR). Buy 1.6135 & buy target 1.6430. sell break 1.6105 target 1.5960, buy 1.5800, sell break 1.5750, buy break 1.6230 tgt closing.

AUD-USD
AUD terlihat berada dalam downtrend channel, meski pola candle bullish harami menunjukkan potensi penurunan lebih lanjut, diikuti indikator ADX rebound, stochastic menurun, MACD masih bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi penurunan ke 0.7690-07445, selama berada di bawah 0.7875. Resistance di 07875, support di 0.7698. buy 0.7690 & buy break 0.7880 target 0.8000, sell 0.8000 target 0.7850.

US Treasury Bonds Retracement, But Still Bullish

By: Frederic_Simons

Interest-Rates
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleDesperate bond bears got their retracement in the 30 year treasury bond yesterday, as it gave back some of the huge gains of the last days. However, this does not change the bullish picture that can be observed when looking at the short and intermediate term charts. As you might already know, Crossroads FX uses an approach that bases short- and intermediate term trade decisions on the actual behaviour of prices, not on fundamental aspects. So we will rarely ask for any reasons "why" a certain price behaviour persists. Accordingly, we developed a proprietary indicator that identifies the line of least resistance both to the downside and to the upside, and prints them on the chart as a green line (buy line) and a red line (sell line). You can see on the following chart that if the price trades for 2 consecutive bars above the green line, rising prices are to be expected. Once the price trades for 2 bars below the red line, you should prepare for falling prices:
Using this method, a buy signal on the 30year Treasury Bonds was generated on 6/12/09, enabling us to capture the best part of the current uptrend:
As you can see on the 180min chart, there is no compelling reason to become a bond-bear again unless prices trade below 118'10 for 2 consecutive bars.

The shorter term 3666 Tick chart shows that the recent retracement has not yet done any damage to the uptrend, as prices stayed above the red sell line. The current uptrend would be in danger if 2 consecutive price bars would trade below 118'29 for two consecutive bars:
If you look at the 2-year Treasuries, the picture is still very bullish, as evidenced by a retracement that has been pretty small as compared to the 30 year treasuries: As a conclusion, the 2 year and 30 year US Treasury Bonds remain in their current uptrend despite their recent retracements. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to contact us by writing an email to

The Secret to Commodity Investing Profits

By: Money_Morning

Commodities
Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticlePeter Krauth writes: There has never been a better time to invest in commodities.

That’s a very simple statement, but it’s backed by three powerful points:
* Commodities tend to do well when more-popular investments (with retail investors) are doing poorly, and when economic conditions are less than ideal.
* When the typical economic underpinnings are at play, a “Secular Bull Market” for commodities tends to last for about 17 years. And right now, the underpinnings are far from typical - and may even be exemplary, meaning this bull-market run could last a lot longer than the norm.
* And last, but not least, we’re only about nine years into this commodities bull market, meaning there’s probably a lot more room to run - probably eight years, and very like even more.

Amazingly, this powerful notion of the “Secular Market Cycle” - despite its tremendous profit potential - is largely unknown to the investment masses, and is rarely discussed by the mainstream business news media. Indeed, it’s so taken for granted that it almost a market secret.If you’re a long-term investor, however, you’ll ultimately realize it’s one of the most lucrative strategies you have in your investing arsenal. And most amazing of all is that it’s easy to understand, easy to deploy, and easy to profit from.

Let me explain.
The Secret of the Secular Market Cycle
Why is it so special? Well, with a finite time to invest for your retirement, it’s crucial to recognize and understand what we like to refer to as the “Secular Market Cycle,” or “Secular Cycle,” for short. As the chart shows, a Secular Cycle, from peak to trough, typically lasts about 17-20 years on average (the period depicted by the chart ends in 2004, but still perfectly illustrates our concept). And there are essentially two types of cycles:

* The “Secular Bull Cycle,” during which regular stocks increase in value, and have their Price/Earnings (P/E) ratios (earnings multiples) expand. That means that stocks get more expensive.
* And the “Secular Bear Cycle,” during which stocks tend to experience a decline in both price and valuation, with P/Es that contract. At best, stock prices move sideways over an extended period, but still see their P/E multiples shrink, since corporate earnings are growing at a time when stock prices are stagnant.

For investors, one key problem is that an overall “Secular Cycle,” from trough to peak, and back to trough, can take 35 years. That’s a big chunk of a person’s wage-earning years, meaning there’s little room for missteps.
The Three Catalysts for Major Commodity Profits

We now know that a typical Secular Bull or Bear market will last 17-20 years. We also now know that the last Secular Commodity Bull was launched roughly around 2000. That allows us to conclude that we’ve easily got between eight and 11 years to go before supply catches up with the burgeoning global demand that we’re seeing right now.

Yet according to such renowned market experts as author and investing icon Jim Rogers, a number of “wild cards” are in place this time around, meaning this bull market in commodities may have a lot more room to run than its more-typical predecessors. Three factors in particular are extremely bullish for commodities investors:

* Global Infrastructure Spending: The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) last year estimated that worldwide investments in power-generation, water and transportation infrastructure projects would exceed $40 trillion by 2030 - and that was before countries around the world enacted hundreds of billions of dollars in stimulus-spending programs.

* Improving Worldwide Living Standards: About half the world’s 6.7 billion inhabitants are simultaneously pushing to improve their living standards, a fact that by itself stands to create a commodities demand shock never before seen - enough by itself, in fact, to extend the secular commodities bull by five additional years.

* Modernization Efforts in Major Markets: The modernization initiatives in China, India, Brazil, Eastern Europe and other portions of Asia are extremely bullish for commodities prices.

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold | Fri Jul 10 09 06:11 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

At this point, intraday bias in crude oil remains on the downside as long as 61.57 minor resistance holds. As mentioned before, sustained break of channel support (now at 60.42) will confirm that whole medium term rise from 33.2 has completed at 73.83 already. In such case, deeper decline should be seen to key key resistance turned support at 54.66 next. On the upside, above 61.57 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring recovery. But upside should be limited by double top neckline at 66.2 bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, the case of reversal continues to build up with daily MACD staying below signal line and recent doubt top reversal pattern (73.23, 73.38). Focus will now turn to channel support at 59.95. Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise from 33.2 has completed at 73.83, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. The three wave structure of the rise from 33.2 to 73.83 will in turn indicate that it's part of wide range consolidation only and hence, will open up the bearish case for a retest of 33.2 low. On the upside, break of 73.83 is now needed to confirm that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Otherwise, risks remain on the downside.

Gold Daily Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold | Fri Jul 10 09 06:12 ET
Comex Gold (GC)

At this point, intraday bias in gold remains on the downside with 919.8 minor resistance intact. Whole fall from 922.1 is now expected to extend to 100% projection of 992.1 to 913.2 from 949 at 870.1 next. On the upside, above 919.8 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But recovery should be limited well below 949 resistance and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, fall from 992.1 is the third leg of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed yet. such decline will likely extend to of 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.

Indeks Regional Asia Berada Dalam Downtrend Channel

Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)

Indeks Nikkei hari ini masih ditutup pada level terendah dalam 7 pekan terakhir pekan lalu, menjelang pengumuman laporan kinerja keuangan perusahaan kuartal kedua. Indeks Nikkei telah jatuh 5,4% dalam pekan ini, merupakan kejatuhan mingguan terbesar sejak Januari lalu. Indeks Nikkei ditutup melemah tipis 3,78 poin, atau 0,04%, ke level 9.287,28, level penutupan terendah sejak 22 Mei.

Di chart daily, Nikkei menunjukkan trend bearish dari pola downtrend channel, kendati menunjukkan pola doji star. Indikator teknikal ADX meningkat, stochastic dead cross dan MACD bearish, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan penurunan lebih lanjut. Resistance berada di 9345 (upper channel)/9470 (50.0 FR 10100-8480). Support berada di 9091 (38.2% FR)/8898 (lower channel). Perkiraan range hari ini 9000-9450. Rekomendasi : Buy 9000 & 9100 target 9300. Buy break 9360 & 9480 target 9700 stop 100p, Buy 8900 target 9300 stop 100p, Sell 9330 target 9100 stop 50p. (-50p)

Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)

Indeks Kospi catat penurunan diakhir perdagangan minggu ini, menyusul meningkatnya kekhawatiran jelang musim laporan keuangan. Sementara itu, beberapa saham teknologi jatuh karena aksi adanya aksi ambil untung dari rally saham tersebut sebelumnya. Namun, saham bank seperti KB Financial Group naik. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup turun 2,27 poin, atau 0,16%, ke posisi 1.428,62 poin.

Dalam chart daily, indeks menunjukkan pola uptrend channel dan pola doji star setelah sebelumnya menunjukkan pola candle shooting star (bearish reversal; 09/07), didukung pola congestion, kondisi stochastic yang overbought, MACD divergence dan ADX yang mengalami penurunan, seharusnya masih mendorong perkiraan penurunan lebih lanjut. Resistance berada di 186.10 (high 09/07) & 186.98 (middle channel), Support di 183.05 ()/180.90 (500.0FR). Rekomendasi Sell 185.70 & 187 target 182.00 stop 100p, buy 182.30 target 185.00, sell break 181.80 target 180.00 stop 100p. buy 180.00 target 185.00 stop 100p. Sell break 179.80 target 178.00 stop 100p.

Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Juli (HSIN9)

Indeks Hang Seng melanjutkan kejatuhannya akhir pekan lalu, dimana indeks terpuruk ke level terendah dalam 2 minggu terakhir karena kekhawatiran mengenai prospek ekonomi global, yang mendorong aksi jual. Indeks Hang Seng ditutup melemah 82,17 poin, atau 0,5%, menjadi 17.708,42. Sedangkan indeks H-Shares. atau 0,62%, ke 10.574,42. HSBC melemah 0,24% ke HK$62,55. CNOOC melemah 0,33% ke HK$9,06, Sinopec melemah 0,65% ke HK$6,15.

Dalam chart daily, indeks masih berada dalam pola downtrend channel terutama setelah menunjukkan pola dojis diatas trendline support 17481, didukung oleh ADX flat, stochastic dead cross, MACD masih bullish seharusnya dukung potensi penurunan terbatas dan cenderung mengalami technical rebound. Resistance di 17840/17989. Support di 17481/17098. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan wave koreksi iii dalam 1 dalam subwave motive (3) cycle B. Rekomendasi : Buy 17500 & buy 17350 target 17980 (or closing) stop 100 p. Buy break 17845 target 18200 stop 100 poin. Sell 18.200 target 18000. buy break 18250 target 184500 stop 100p. sell break 17,300 target 17000

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Daily Technical Analysis & Elliot Wave Forex/Cross/Gold/Oil/CFD

By Ahmad Mudjo

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Usd/Jpy; Below 90 Again? Dollar Index; Triangle completed? Short Dollar?

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by TheLFB-Forex.com

Usd/Jpy; Below 90 Again?

4 Hour Chart trend: Short. Main price points: 94.66, and 91.79. Looking for: Wave iv
Usd/Jpy made an amazing decline in Wednesday sessions, which we believe was a red wave iii) move. This move was confirmed soon as the wave i) lows (94.66) were taken out, with a new target around 93.00. Prices fell 100 pips lower, to the 91.79 area, which looks to be a wave iii) bottom, as they have already gained a little into a current wave iv). If the counting is correct, wave iv should not reach the 94.66 critical area. One of the basic EW rule is, that wave four must not overlap the territory of wave i). If the turning point in the current wave iv) appears somewhere below 94.66, the we will be looking for lower wave v) target below 91.79.
















Dollar Index; Triangle completed? Short Dollar?
4 Hour Chart trend: Mixed. Main price points: 79.36, and 81.36. Looking for: Wave IV pattern.
On the four hour dollar index chart we notice a trend-line resistance area connected from wave A) and C) highs, where a recent turning point appeared. This may be an important bearish dollar signal, which will lead the major pairs if it holds. In this scenario the triangle pattern, shown on the chart below, is completed, especially if the 79.36 support gets broken before than 81.36 resistance.
On the other-hand, dollar strength will improve if the upper line of the triangle gets broken.

Daily Technical Analysis Forex & DJIA

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
EUR/USD

Today's support: - 1.3944, 1.3911 and 1.3860(main), where correction is possible. Break would give 1.3823, where correction also may be. Then follows 1.3790. Break of the latter would result in 1.3767. If a strong impulse, we would see 1.3740. Continuation will give 1.3726 and 1.3684. Today's resistance: - 1.4050(main). Break would give 1.4077, where a correction is possible. Then goes 1.4096. Break of the latter would result in 1.4136. If a strong impulse, we'd see 1.4153. Continuation will give 1.4176.
USD/JPY
Today's support: - 92.67, 92.25 and 91.80(main). Break would bring 91.62, where correction is possible. Then 91.36, where a correction may also happen. Break of the latter will give 91.14. If a strong impulse, we would see 90.86. Continuation would give 90.47 and 90.21. Today's resistance: - 93.67, 94.12 and 94.50(main), where a correction may happen. Break would bring 95.00, where also a correction may be. Then 95.36. If a strong impulse, we would see 95.78. Continuation will give 96.43.
DOW JONES INDEX
Today's support: - 8130.00, 8119.50 and 8100.00(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8076.09, where correction also can be. Then follows 8047.26. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8018.43. Continuation will bring 8000.16. Today's resistance: - 8235.21(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8275.78, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8319.37, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8352.12. Continuation would bring 8376.18.

Nikkei’s ‘Double Top’ Signals End of Rally: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average has formed a “double top” in a chart, signaling the end of a four- month rally, according to Nomura Holdings Inc.
A double-top formation, a chart pattern some technical analysts read as a sign to sell, appears when prices fall before overtaking a previous high. The Nikkei rose to as much as 10,086.18 on July 1, short of an eight-month high on June 12. Since then, the gauge declined for seven days and dropped beneath a low of 9,511.45 on June 23, completing the formation.

“We don’t see a double top as clearly as this very often, and that confirms the end of the four-month rally,” said Shoichiro Yamauchi, a technical analyst at Nomura. “How deep and long a correction will be depends on whether the Nikkei falls below its 75-day average.”The Nikkei, which has climbed 44 percent from a more than 26-year low on March 10 through June 12, dropped 1.4 percent to 9,291.06 yesterday, approaching a 75-day average of 9,251.99.

Citigroup Says Euro Mimics April, Will Fall: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Investors should sell the euro against the dollar as the currency mimics a pattern that took it to a one-month low on April 22, according to a Citigroup Inc. research report analyzing chart formations. The euro fell from $1.3739 on March 19 to $1.3114 on March 30 and resumed gains to peak on April 6 at a 76.4 percent Fibonacci level, the report said. It dropped again, then retraced 61.8 percent of that decline, only to resume a drop that led to an “aggressive” move lower, technical analysts Tom Fitzpatrick in New York and Shyam Devani in London wrote. The currency is repeating that pattern and is poised to fall to $1.3318 from its June 3 high of $1.4338, they said. “This looks to us like the setup seen in March-April,” the analysts wrote. “This overall move down is expected to test the 200 day moving average.”

The euro rose 1.2 percent to $1.4043 today, erasing two days of declines. It climbed against 10 of the 16 most-traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg. Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. A breach of one level indicates the currency may move to the next.

Thursday, July 9, 2009

IHSG Akan Mendapatkan Technical Rebound

Market Review
Telah diantisipasi hasil pilpres yang menunjukkan keunggulan capres-cawapres SBY – Boediono (buy on rumor, sell on the news) yang tidak memberikan kejutan yang signifikan, diikuti kondisi indeks saham regional yang tidak kondusif yang mengalami penurunan dalam beberapa hari terakhir, ikut mendorong tarik ulur pergerakan IHSG kemarin. Faktor anjloknya harga komoditi paska liburan untuk pilpres (BUMI, ITMG, INCO, ANTM) yang mendorong kejatuhan harga saham komoditi domestik dan jatuhnya saham TLKM karena telah memasuki ex-date dividen hari Selasa, dapat dibatasi oleh euphoria hasil pilpres.Indeks ditutup menguat 0.727 poin (0.035%), ditutup di 2,083.974, nilai transaksi meningkat hingga Rp 6.992 triliun.

Mayoritas indeks saham di Asia-Pasifik terkoreksi untuk hari ke-7 kemarin, penurunan berturut-turut terlama sejak bulan September, dipimpin oleh perusahaan otomotif Jepang, karena penguatan yen mengancam nilai penjualan di luar negeri. Sementara reboundnya harga minyak yang mengangkat harga saham komoditi, diikuti sikap investor menunggu hasil earnings korporat Q2, membatasi laju penurunan indeks

IHSG Outlook
IHSG diperkirakan dapat melanjutkan trend kenaikan hari ini, meski tidak ada kejutan dalam hasil pilpres dari quick count sementara (hasil KPU dirilis bulan September) dan sikap investor yang telah mengantisipasi kemenangan capres-cawapres (Buy on rumor, sell on the news) menyebabkan IHSG ditutup tipis kemarin. Sejumlah isu positif membayangi kinerja “BULL MARKET” IHSG, meski dibatasi oleh kondisi regional yang tidak mendukung (terkoreksi beberapa hari terakhir, kekhawatiran mengenai pemulihan ekonomi global dan penurunan harga komoditi). Perkiraan kemenangan SBY untuk periode ke-2 sebagai Presiden RI, dapat mendorong aliran dana masuk ke pasar saham dan obligasi yang relatif lebih menarik ketimbang pasar regional dari sisi valuasi P/E dan PER, diikuti suku bunga yang relatif lebih tinggi. Citigroup, Aberdeen Asset Management, CLSA, ING Group dan lembaga pemeringkat Moody’s, merupakan diantara analis yang melihat dampak positif dari kemenangan Presiden SBY yang berprestasi mengangkat pasar modal domestik, dimana sejak awal Januari rupiah (menguat 9.6%), saham (menguat 54%) dan obligasi dalam bentuk rupiah (return 12%), merupakan sebuah pretasi untuk Presiden SBY. Laporan IMF meningkatkan prediksi ekonomi negara Asia dan rendahnya suku bunga BI seharusnya masih menopang kinerja IHSG dalam waktu dekat ini.

Stock Picks : Potential yield 10%-20%, risk <10%

Hold (06/07): BUMI/BNBR/ELTY, BMTR/MNCN, SMMA,BLTA, CTRA, INCO, INDF, SMGR, BBCA,BMRI,TLKM,ISAT,PTBA,TRUB, SMCB.


Global Outlook
Seperti diperkirakan sejak awal pekan ini, kejatuhan indeks saham regional dan AS akibat faktor teknikal menunjukkan bearish reversal dan kekhawatiran tingkat pengangguran di Eropa dan AS, dapat mereda di akhir pekan ini, karena sentimen positif dari data Jobless Claims AS pekan lalu anjlok 52,000 menjadi 565,000, meski continued claims melonjak 159,000 menjadi rekor menjadi 6.88 juta. Presiden AS Obama membuka peluang stimulus ekonomi kedua didukung investor terkaya di dunia Warren Bufffett kemarin, mengatakan AS mungkin memerlukan stimulus kedua, guna merangsang ekonomi. Sentimen positif lainnya dari perusahaan pembiayaan mortgage Freddie Mac mengatakan tingkat suku bunga mortgage AS merosot untuk pekan kedua, meredakan kekhawatiran rencana the Fed menurunkan biaya pinjaman rumah telah kehilangan momentum. Sementara musim earnings AS dimulai kemarin, menunjukkan hasil earning Alcoa, hasil penjualan Nordstrom & Target lebih baik dari perkiraan, seharusnya masih dapa menopang kinerja indeks global.

Technical Analysis:
IHSG berhasil capai tertinggi ke target 2,116, tetapi gagal melewati level tersebut dan malah memberikan signal negatif dari pola candle doji star yang merupakan indikasi bearish reversal skala medium, didukung oleh indikator ADX rebound tipis, stochastic overbought dan MACD berpotensi menunjukkan kondisi divergence, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan potensi kenaikan terbatas, meski trend jangka pendek masih bullish, selama bertahan diatas 1,966 (trendline support) dan masih berada dalam pola uptrend channel untuk target 2,116 (double top)/2,147 (upper channel) bahkan 2,178 (long term downtrend line) jika break target 2,210 (123.6 FR 2835-1089)/2,365 (161.8 FR). Hitungan Elliot Wave menunjukkan IHSG saat ini berada dalam minor wave koreksi 4 dalam wave 3 impulse atau B jika gagal ditutup diatas 2,116 pekan ini.
Resistance: 2143.48.48/2128.61/2113.73.21/2100.42. PP 2087.10
Support : 2072.23/2057.35/2030.73/2002.54
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,030 - 2,116)

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Indeks Regional Berpotensi Rebound Karena Meredanya Risk Aversion

Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)

Indeks Nikkei ditutup di level terendahnya dalam 7 pekan terakhir, menyusul tertekannya saham-saham energi seiring pergerakan mata uang yang mendekati level penguatannya dalam 5 bulan terakhir terhadap dollar. Indeks Nikkei .N225 ditutup jatuh 129,69 poin, atau 1,38%, ke posisi 9.291,06, level penutupan terendah sejak 22 Mei. Indeks Topix turun 1,7% menjadi 873,91.

Di chart daily, Nikkei menunjukkan trend bearish dari penutupan indeks kemarin dibawah uptrend channel, kendati menunjukkan pola candle hammer. Indikator teknikal ADX kenaikan, stochastic dead cross dan MACD bearish, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan potensi kenaikan terbatas. Resistance berada di 9480 (55 day MA)/9636 (76.4% FR). Support berada di 9197 (200-day MA)/9137 (161.8 FR). Perkiraan range hari ini 9250-9500. Rekomendasi : Hold buy 9320 target 9550. Buy break 9460 & 9560 target 9800 stop 100p, Buy 9200 target 9550 stop 100p, Sell break 9150 target 8850.

Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)

Indeks Kospi ditutup flat hari ini, dimana penguatan saham bank seperti Woori Finace Holdings berhasil menopangnya. Sedangkan hasil rapat bulanan Bank Sentral Korea (BOK) yang mempertahankan suku bunganya 2,0%, tidak berdampak banyak ke pasar. Penguatan saham bank dipicu oleh spekulasi kinerja keuangan perbankan di kuartal kedua akan lebih baik dari proyeksi. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup turun tipis 0,13 poin, atau 0,01%, ke posisi 1.430,89 poin.

Dalam chart daily, indeks menunjukkan pola rising pennant, kendati menunjukkan pola candle shooting star (bearish reversal: high reliability). Sementara indikator stochastic dan MACD bullish, ADX falt, seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan masih tetap terbuka. Resistance berada di 186.19 (resistance line) & 189.09 (123.6 FR), Support di 182.89 (76.4 FR)/180.90 (500.0FR). Rekomendasi Sell 186.20 & 189 target 182.00 stop 100p, sell break 181.80 target 180.00 stop 100p. buy 180.30 target 185.00 stop 100p. Sell break 179.90 target 178.00 stop 100p. (+200p)

Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Juli (HSIN9)

Anjloknya saham bank Cina karena kekhawatiran akan pengetatan kebijakan moneter PBOC membuat indeks Hang Seng ditutup melemah untuk tiga sesi berturut-turut kemarin. Selain itu, tumbangnya saham HSBC, China Mobile dan saham energi Cina juga menjadi faktor penyebab. Indeks Hang Seng ditutup melemah 141,20 poin, atau 0,8%, di 17.721,07.

Indeks Hang Seng diperkirakan akan mengalami penurunan untuk keempat kalinya hari ini, menyusul meningkatnya kekhawatiran mengenai pengetatan kebijakan moneter di tengah melonjaknya kredit di Cina sepanjang semester pertama tahun ini. Namun, faktor teknikal memberi ruang indeks Hang Seng untuk kembali rebound dari kejatuhannya tersebut.

Dalam chart daily, indeks menunjukkan signal bullish rerversal terutama setelah menunjukkan pola long legged doji diatas trendline support 17480, didukung oleh ADX flat, stochastic berada di teritorial negatif, seharusnya mendukung potensi penurunan terbatas dan cenderung mengalami technical rebound. Resistance di 17800/17980. Support di 17320. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan wave koreksi iii dalm 1 dalam subwave motive (3) cycle B. Rekomendasi : Buy 17530 & buy 17350 target 17980 (or closing) stop 100 p. Buy break 17845 target 17980 stop 100 poin. Sell 18.200 target 18000. buy break 18250 target 184500 stop 100p. sell break 17,300 target 17000 (-100+250P)

Summer Stock Market and Crude Oil Trend Correction Updates

By: NewsLetter

News_Letter
The analysis of April 26th concluded that the Dow is targeting a high of 8,750 by mid May 2009 which was expected to be followed by a significant correction of 14% towards a Dow target of 7,500. The Dow hit the target on 2nd of June which was confirmed in the quick update at the time, and therefore expectations were for the significant correction to materialise.Quick Technical Analysis - The Dow spent early June distributing along 8,800, which gave plenty of time to put on short positions with tight stops. The key chart trigger was the lower high at 8,600 which targeted a break of 8,200. The pattern size is 400 points which projects to 7,800 before the next expected bounce. The overall pattern size is about 650 which projects to 8,200 minus 650 = 7,550, which is pretty close to the original projection of April 26th for the target for the Correction AFTER the peak around 8,750. The chart is also showing an head and shoulders price pattern witch the same measuring move.















Stocks Stealth Bull Market End Probability - The probability of an end to this fledgling bull market remains very low at less than 20%, as the Dow has so far done nothing to suggest otherwise with the trend to date inline with expectations for that of a significant summer correction. The quality of the stocks bull market for the balance of the year will become clearer as the current correction unravels towards 7,500, which will enable me to generate an in depth analysis for the next 3 months or so, however existing analysis is for a 50% rally which targets Dow 9,705.
Conclusion - The Dow is still projecting towards a target of around 7,500 as indicated in the chart above, which I am sure will be taken by the perma-bears as proof that the whole move from March was just a bear market rally, JUST AT THE POINT WHERE I EXPECT THE STOCKS STEALTH BULL MARKET TO RESUME!.

Crude Oil Forecast Summer 2009

By: Nadeem_Walayat

Commodities
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis is a quick update to the analysis of December 2008 that projected an uptrend in the Crude Oil price into mid 2009 targeting $75, to be followed by a downtrend back below $50 towards $40 as illustrated by the original graph.

Crude Oil Summer Trend
Quick Technical Analysis - Crude oil hit its summer objective in June by peaking just shy of $74, following which it made a lower high at 73, and confirmed the downtrend on break below 66. The current action is expected to correct the bull run from $35 in December 2008, with the key consolidation zone of $47.5 to $55 which crude oil is homing in on to again form a base for the resumption of the rally into 2010. Therefore we have a price target zone of $47.50 to $55, the question now is how long will the downtrend last ? The downtrend appears to be projecting for a trend lower into late August / Early September, thereafter some sideways action could be in order before the rally gains traction later in the year.

Crude Oil Conclusion - Downtrend targeting $45 to $50 by start of September 2009, thereafter base building before the next leg higher.The in depth update for crude oil will follow later, to ensure you receive this in your email box subscribe to my always free newsletter.












Crude Oil Mega-Trend - The long-term mega-trend is for much higher crude oil prices, we will probably see see the $200 oil price that Goldman Sachs were calling and distributing into as crude oil approached $150 last June. However as I pointed out in the analysis of December 2008 and iterated several times during the year that where oil is concerned 2009 will be the year for accumulating long-term investment position.

Therefore the trend to $45 gives long-term investors ANOTHER opportunity to accumulate into a mega-trend. Favoured routes are the oil ETF's , oil producers and explorers again spread your risk by using ETF's and investment trusts, and off course theirs Russia, a crashed stock market that has so far failed to recover despite the recent rebound in the oil price, again this would need to be a long-term exposure.















Leveraged ETF's Warning
I was going to write at depth as to why investors should steer well away from leveraged ETF's such as that for crude oil, where even if your RIGHT and the price of oil doubles as it did, you could STILL LOSE MONEY!, Leveraged ETF's should be avoided by all but ultra-short-term traders and I am talking about 1 to 3 days, any more and your trading the wrong vehicle, instead I see infuriating commentary on the internet targeting investors towards leveraged ETF's ! In my opinion THEY ARE A SCAM INVESTMENT DESIGNED TO PART YOU WITH YOUR MONEY. Short-term trading vehicle?, maybe, but Investment vehicle - NO!. Ron Rowland explained earlier in detail how they work - Understanding The Dangers of Leveraged ETF's.

S&P 500 Stock Market Trends Analysis for July 2009

By: Hans_Wagner

Stock-Markets
Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleWhen analyzing monthly stock market trends, I use the S&P 500 charts to identify important trend lines. Trend following is a proven strategy to beat the market and grow your stock portfolio. Technical analysis provides the tools to analyze and identify trends in the stock market. Since the S&P 500 chart is the one used by professional traders for their analysis, it is important to understand how it is performing.The analysis of the S&P 500 trend line starts with the 20-year monthly view of the S&P 500 chart. Next, we examine the weekly chart of the S&P 500 trends to get a shorter-term view. Finally, we analyze the one-year daily chart of the S&P 500 trends to get an even shorter-term view. On each version of the charts of the S&P 500 trend line, the view and the value of the indicators change, as we move from a monthly to a weekly and then a daily chart.

Starting with the monthly view of the S&P 500 trend chart, the bull market of the last five years turned down, as the index fell below the 24-month exponential moving average. The Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) is below 50, indicating a downtrend is in place. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) fell below zero, a sign stock market trend has reversed and we have entered a bear market. Finally, the Slow Stochastic fell through zero, another sign of a bear market.The analysis of the monthly trends of the S&P 500 chart shows we remain in a bear market with key resistance at the 24-month exponential moving average. In addition, support at the 25 year rising S&P 500 trend line has been tested and held, so far. However, the Slow Stochastic rose through the 20 level. If it is able to stay above 20, it is an early buy sign. The other indicators have not yet flashed an end of the bear market. From the monthly view, we remain in a bear market.














Inflation or Deflation, Make Sure You Get This One Right

John Mauldin, Best-Selling author and recognized financial expert, is also editor of the free Thoughts From the Frontline that goes to over 1 million readers each week.












How Long Can the U.S. Dollar Defy the Law of Gravity?

By: Gary_Dorsch

Currencies
Diamond Rated - Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleIn the midst of the longest and deepest, post World-War II recession, America’s financial position with the rest of the world has deteriorated sharply. Three decades of massive trade deficits have turned the United States from the world’s top lender to the world’s largest debtor, - and dependent upon the whims of the so-called emerging nations, laden with huge foreign currency reserves, to finance the bailout of Wall Street Oligarchs, and President Barack Obama’s social programs.Foreigners own roughly half of the US-government’s publicly traded debt, or $3.47-trillion, representing nearly 25% of the size of the US-economy, the highest level in history. If foreign lenders were to significantly reduce their purchases of US-Treasury notes, without even dumping their current holdings, US long-term interest rates could zoom higher, and the US-dollar could crumble.

That would deal a double whammy to the US-economy. Higher yields on Treasury debt could translate into higher mortgage borrowing rates for homebuyers, - weighing on the housing market, while a weaker US-dollar could lift the price of crude oil to above $70 per barrel, inducing an “Oil Shock” to the world economy. This nightmare scenario has been relegated to the den of doomsayers and fear mongrels, yet is starting to become an increasingly realistic proposition. Increasingly, some of the biggest foreign lenders to the US Treasury, such as Brazil, China, India, Russia, and Qatar, are grumbling aloud, about the endless string of trillion dollar US-budget deficits projected in the years ahead. Lenders are crying foul over the Federal Reserve’s radical experiment with “Quantitative Easing” (QE) - the printing vast quantities of US-dollars, and monetizing the US-government’s debt.














“America, through this financial crisis, is accumulating a huge amount of debt. It’s a heavy burden on the US-dollar,” warned Jassem al-Mannai, chief of the Abu Dhabi-based Arab Monetary Fund on June 28th. “You have China and Russia proposing an international reserve currency other than the US-dollar. These developments could affect negatively the dollar, and you cannot just ignore them,” he warned. “We have lent a massive amount of capital to the United States, and of course we are concerned about the security of our assets,” warned Chinese PM Wen Jiaboa on March 13th. To speak truthfully, I do indeed have some worries. So I call on the United States to maintain its creditworthiness, and abide by its commitments and insure the security of China’s assets. We have already adopted a management policy of diversifying our ($2-trillion) foreign exchange reserves,” Wen warned.

IHSG: Sentimen Dari Pilpres Akan Dibatasi Oleh Faktor Negatif Dari Regional

IHSG Outlook

IHSG diperkirakan akan menguat lebih lanjut di akhir pekan ini, berkat sejumlah sentimen dan faktor teknikal yang positif. Faktor positif dari keunggulan Capres-Cawapres SBY-Boediono dalam Quick Count sementara, meraih 60.7% suara, unggul dari saingan-saingannya, memicu spekulasi pilpres hanya satu putaran, dimana dapat direspon oleh investor saham lokal dan asing dengan baik. Perkiraan kemenangan SBY sebagai Presiden untuk periode ke-2 akan disambut dengan peluang rating kredit Indonesia dinaikkan oleh agen rating Moody’s dan Goldman Sachs menaikkan prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi RI menjadi 4.2% dari 3.5% di tahun 2009. IMF menaikkan prediksi ekonomi negara emerging (termasuk Indonesia) tahun 2010. Pernyataan Dirut BEI Ito Warsito kepada Bloomberg, sentimen dari pilpres, mendorong pasar akan stabil di atas level 2,000, IHSG menguat 54% di tahun ini dan diperdagangkan dengan P/E 13x dibandingkan P/E indeks MSCI Asia Pasific sebesar 23x. Potensi penurunan inflasi RI bulan Juli dapat memicu spekulasi penurunan suku bunga BI di bulan Agustus menjadi 6.50%, ikut memberikan support untuk mata uang rupiah (target Rp 9,800/10,000) dan IHSG tentunya. Sementara penurunan harga komoditi (minyak sentuh $ 60/barel, cpo tembus dibawah Myr 2,000) dan terpuruknya indeks regional dan AS, dapat membebani momentum Bull Market IHSG.

Stock Picks : Potential yield 10%-20%, risk <10%
Hold (< -5%: 06/07): BUMI/BNBR/ELTY, BMTR/MNCN, SMMA,BLTA, CTRA, INCO, INDF, SMGR, BBCA,BMRI,TLKM,ISAT,PTBA,TRUB. Buy SMCB.

Stock Picks:
* PTBA buy target Rp 15,000
* UNSP hold target Rp 900

Global Outlook
Potensi penurunan indeks regional Asia dan AS di akhir pekan ini, terbatas berkat sentimen positif dari laporan IMF menaikkan prediksi pertumbuhan ekonomi global di tahun 2010 menjadi 2.5% dari prediksi 1.9% di bulan April lalu, dimana pertumbuhan negara emerging dan developed dinaikkan menjadi 4.7% di tahun depan, meningkat 0.7% dari prediksi di bulan April. Credit Suisse Group mengatakan investor seharusnya mendapatkan keuntungan dari potensi penurunan pasar saham dalam 3 bulan mendatang untuk membeli saham Asia karena optimisme pemulihan ekonomi global. Presiden AS Obama dalam pertemuan pemimpin negara G8 di Italia, mengatakan masih membuka peluang untuk stimulus ekonomi kedua, meski negara Grup 8 lainnya gagal memjembatani perbedaan untuk mengatasi resesi terburuk sejak Perang Dunia ke-2. Dimulainya musim EARNINGS Q2 di AS (Alcoa-08/07), dapat meredam sentimen negatif dari penurunan harga minyak ke $ 60/barel (prediksi OPEC mengenai penurunan ouput dan inventory AS meningkat di pekan lalu).

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Technical Analysis:

Penutupan IHSG diatas resistance line 2,078 (07/07), pola candle daily bullish engulfing diikuti sentimen positif dari hasil sementara Pilpres, didukung oleh stochastic crossing up, MACD bullish, ADX flat, seharusnya mendukung kenaikan lebih lanjut ke target 2,116/2.165 (61.8% FR). Hitungan Elliot Wave: peluang tembusnya 2,085/2,116 dapat merubah pandangan analisa wave yang berpotensi menunjukkan penurunan ke low 1,888 merupakan wave 4 dan saat berada dalam proses minor wave 5 dalam wave intermediate (4) / cycle (B). Break 2,116 target 2,165/2,200.
Resistance: 2188.03/2163.85/2115.49/2099.37. PP 2067.13
Support : 2059.07/2034.89/2018.76/1994.58
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,060 - 2,165)

Signal Negatif Dari Teknikal Dukung Potensi Penurunan Indeks Regional

Laporan Pasar

Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)
Saham eksportir hempaskan indeks Nikkei 0,34% kemarin, menyusul penguatan nilai tukar yen terhadap dollar. Sedangkan Isuzu Motors merosot setelah Toyota Motor berencana mengembangkan mesin diesel pada kendaraan truk. Indeks Nikkei .225 ditutup turun 33,08 poin, atau 0,34%, ke posisi 9.647,79. Indeks Topix turun 0,4% menjadi 909,13. Isuzu jatuh 4,5% menjadi 148 yen. Toyota Motor melemah 0,6% ke posisi 3.590 yen.

Di chart 4 jam, Nikkei menunjukkan trend bearish dari penurunan di bawah downtrend channel 9453, diikuti pola candle black maubozu di daily chart, didukung indikator ADX rebound, stochastic bearish, MACD netral, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi penurunan lebih lanjut dan membatasi potensi kenaikan hari ini. Resistance berada di 9739 (20 Day MA)/9579 (low). Support berada di 9316 (FR 50.0)/9110 (200-day MA). Perkiraan range hari ini 9150-9550. Rekomendasi : Buy break 9460 & 9560 target 9800 stop 100p, Buy 9150 & 9320 target 9550 stop 100p, Sell break 9000 target 8850. (-100+50p) Chart SSIU9 Daily

Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)

Indeks Kospi ditutup menguat kemarin, berkat saham teknologi dan otomotif menyusul ekspektasi membaiknya laporan keuangan kuartal 2 tahun ini. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup naik 5,26 poin, atau 0,37%, ke posisi 1.434,20 poin. Samsung Electronics ditutup melonjak 2,52% menjadi 650.000 won, sekaigus catat level tertinggi dalam 52 pekan terakhir. LG Electronics menguat 5,28% ke 129.500 won. Hyundai Motor menguat 3,4% dan Kia Motors naik 2,96%.

Dalam chart 4-jam, Kospi terlihat keluar dari momentum bearish, setelah menembus pola congestion 184.05-172.50, meski indikator ADX terkoreksi turun, stochastic overbought & MACD bullish, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan kenaikan indeks terbatas hari ini. Resistance berada di 188.05 (123.6 FR), support di 180.55 (20-MA). Rekomendasi :Sell 185.70 & 188 target 182.00 stop 100p, sell break 181.30 target 178.50 stop 100p. buy 182.50 target 185.00. Sell break 177.50 target 175.60 stop 100p. (+100p) Chart KSU9 Daily

Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Juli (HSIN9)

Indeks Hang Seng melemah 0,65% karena kurangnya katalis baru mengenai ekonomi membuat investor melakukan aksi ambil untung dan volume perdagangan rendah. Sementara itu, kurangnya berita positif mengenai ekonomi global membuat investor bersikap wait-and-see. Indeks Hang Seng ditutup melemah 117,14 poin, atau 0,65%, menguat 17.862,27. Sedangkan indeks H-Shares jatuh 1,4%, atau 152,95 poin, ke 10,674,67. Dalam chart 4 jam, indeks menunjukkan signal bearish terutama jika menembus trendline support di 17649, dapat mengarahkan indeks terkoreksi lebih lanjut. Indikator stochastic dan MACD bearish, ADX terkoreksi turun, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan momentum penurunan terbatas. Resistance di 17800/17980. Support di 17320. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks menunjukkan wave koreksi iii dalm 1 dalam subwave motive (3) cycle B. Rekomendasi : Buy 17550 & buy 17350 target 17980 (or closing) stop 100 p. Buy break 17800 target 18050 stop 100 poin. buy break 18250 target 184500 stop 100p. sell break 17,300 target 17000 stop 100p, (-100P) Chart HSIN9 Daily

Pound May Fall to Two-Month Low Against Yen: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- The pound may fall to a two-month low against the yen in coming weeks after it dropped below so-called support at 154.08 yen, according to Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., citing trading patterns. Support at 154.08 yen represented the neckline of a so- called “head-and-shoulders” pattern, which was completed when the pound closed at 153.15 yen yesterday, said Masashi Hashimoto, a Tokyo-based senior analyst at the bank, in an interview. A head and shoulders is formed when a currency makes three consecutive peaks, with the middle being the highest. The neckline is drawn across the base of the three peaks.“The pound touched 153.04 yen on the sixth and closed at 153.15 yen on the seventh, breaking below a double neckline in the 154-yen level, so the move lower will gain momentum,” Hashimoto said today.

The pound declined to 151.57 yen as of 6:40 a.m. in London from 153.15 yen in New York yesterday, after earlier weakening to 151.51 yen, the lowest level since May 27.
The U.K. currency is now likely to extend losses to between 145.89 yen and 145.74 yen, Hashimoto said.The 145.89 yen level is the 38.2 percent retracement of the pound’s rally from the Jan. 12 low of 118.85 yen to the June 12 high of 162.60 yen, based on a series of numbers known as the Fibonacci sequence. The 145.74 yen level is the 200-day moving average, according to Hashimoto.Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. A break above resistance or below support indicates a currency may move to the next level.In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

Asia’s Currency Weakness to Gain Momentum: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Asian currencies are likely to extend declines after the Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index slid below a key technical level this week, according to Nomura Holdings Inc. said. The Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region’s 10 most- used currencies excluding the yen, is set to close below its 50- day moving average for a third straight day, signaling the likelihood it will fall. The measure slid 0.5 percent in the past month and yesterday closed at a two-week low. It last broke below the moving average on Jan. 20, before tumbling 3.7 percent in the following six weeks to a four-year low.“There are a lot of momentum traders out there who will take these as signals to sell Asian currencies,” said Craig Chan, a Singapore-based strategist at Nomura. “Our own models that take into account foreign equity flows in Asia, risk reversal in Asian currency options as well as yield differentials, also seem to be consistent with those technical indicators calling for investors to be long dollar-Asia.”

The Asian Dollar Index was down 0.1 percent at 107.28 as of 11:02 a.m. in Singapore, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It reached 101.11 on March 2, the lowest since November 2004.In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index. Moving averages are used to identify trends and find support or resistance. Support is a level where buy orders may be clustered and resistance is where there may be sell orders.

Oil in Downtrend, May Fall to $50: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- Crude oil is in a downtrend that may lead to prices falling as low as $50 a barrel, according to Schork Group Inc. “Oil has indeed entered a bear channel,” said Stephen Schork, president of the Villanova, Pennsylvania-based consultant. “The market gapped lower, therefore that gap - in between $66.26 and $65.65 - is now the top of resistance.”A decline of 12 percent since the start of last week has pushed prices into a descending channel on the daily continuation chart. It has also left a price gap between the low of July 2 and the high of July 6 that will present a hurdle to rising prices in the coming week, Schork said.

Oil reached an eight-month high of $73.38 a barrel on June 30 on speculation a recovery from the global recession will spur demand for fuels, and following a surge in Brent on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. Unauthorized trades at PVM Oil Futures Ltd., a unit of the world’s largest broker of over-the-counter oil derivatives, may have caused London oil prices to jump in the early hours of June 30, according to exchange data.New York oil futures have since fallen, into a sustained descending channel. Prices are headed for a sixth day of decline after closing yesterday below the 50-day moving average for the first time in four months.

Crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange is in its longest losing streak since December. Oil for August delivery declined 74 cents to $62.19 a barrel at 1:14 p.m. Singapore time. Prices rose 41 percent in the three months to June, the biggest quarterly gain since 1990, and increased 39 percent so far this year.Oil may fall to $50 a barrel only after breaking support levels near $60, according to Schork.
“The market is clearly trending lower,” he said. The support is in between the 50 percent and 62 percent retracements ratio scale, from $61.25 to $58.59, he said.

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Another week of huge build in refinery products! The US Energy Department reported that gasoline inventory rose +1.9 mmb, compared with consensus of +0.9 mmb, to 213.1 mmb in the week ended June 26. For distillate, the pace of increase has picked up again over the past few week and it surged +3.74 mmb to 158.7 mmb, the highest level since 1985. Although crude oil stockpile drew -2.9 mmb, compared with market expectation of -2.8 mmb, the pace of decline has continued to slow down. Added to the concerns was another week of rise in stockpile (+1.58 mmb) at Cushing, Oklahoma, where WTI crude is stored.

The benchmark crude oil contract extends weakness and plunges to 61.36 after the report. Contract prices of petroleum products such as heating oil and gasoline also got hit.

Crude oil's fall extends further and reaches as low as 61.87 so far, meeting mentioned 38.2% retracement of 43.83 to 73.38 at 62.09 as expected. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 64.96 minor resistance holds. Deeper decline should be seen to channel support at 59.95 next. Break there will confirm medium term reversal and target key resistance turned support at 54.66. On the upside, above 64.96 minor resistance will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring recovery, probably to retest double top neckline at 66.2. But upside should be limited well below 73.38 and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, the case of reversal continues to build up with daily MACD staying below signal line and recent doubt top reversal pattern (73.23, 73.38). Focus will now turn to channel support at 59.95. Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise from 33.2 has completed at 73.83, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. The three wave structure of the rise from 33.2 to 73.83 will in turn indicate that it's part of wide range consolidation only and hence, will open up the bearish case for a retest of 33.2 low. On the upside, break of 73.83 is now needed to confirm that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Otherwise, risks remain on the downside.

Gold Daily Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold | Wed Jul 08 09 06:55 ET
Comex Gold (GC)

Gold edges lower today but after all it's still staying in range of 913.2/938.1. Nevertheless, intraday bias is still mildly on the downside with 934.8 minor resistance intact. Break of 913.2 will confirm that whole decline from 992.1 has resumed for 865 low. On the upside, above 934.8 will turn intraday outlook neutral again and indicate that consolidation from 913.2 is still in progress. But even in case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited by 61.8% retracement of 992.1 to 913.2 at 962 to conclude the consolidation and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, favor is in the case that that fall from 992.1 is the third leg of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed yet. Break of 913.9 fibo support will target a test of 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.

Tuesday, July 7, 2009

Kondisi Oversold di Indeks Regional Dapat Picu Technical Rebound

Laporan Pasar

Nikkei Futures Kontrak September (SSIU9)

Saham eksportir hempaskan indeks Nikkei 0,34% kemarin, menyusul penguatan nilai tukar yen terhadap dollar. Sedangkan Isuzu Motors merosot setelah Toyota Motor berencana mengembangkan mesin diesel pada kendaraan truk. Indeks Nikkei .225 ditutup turun 33,08 poin, atau 0,34%, ke posisi 9.647,79. Indeks Topix turun 0,4% menjadi 909,13. Isuzu jatuh 4,5% menjadi 148 yen. Toyota Motor melemah 0,6% ke posisi 3.590 yen.

Di chart 4 jam, Nikkei menunjukkan trend bearish dari pola downtrend channel, penutupan dibawah 50.0% FR di 9793 dan 9743 upper channel, didukung oleh oleh indikator ADX flat, stochastic oversold, MACD bearish, seharusnya menunjukkan potensi penurunan terbatas dan mendorong perkiraan technical rebound hari ini. Resistance berada di 9793 (50.0% & 20 Day MA)/9950 (61.8 FR). Support berada di 9453 (lower channel)/9522 (200-day MA). Perkiraan range hari ini 9500-9800. Rekomendasi : Buy 9530 & 9600 target 9860 stop 100p, sell 9950 target 9800 stop 100p, Sell break 9430 target 9350/9140. Chart SSIU9 Daily

Kospi Futures Kontrak September (KSU9)
Indeks Kospi ditutup menguat kemarin, berkat saham teknologi dan otomotif menyusul ekspektasi membaiknya laporan keuangan kuartal 2 tahun ini. Indeks Kospi .KS11 ditutup naik 5,26 poin, atau 0,37%, ke posisi 1.434,20 poin. Samsung Electronics ditutup melonjak 2,52% menjadi 650.000 won, sekaigus catat level tertinggi dalam 52 pekan terakhir. LG Electronics menguat 5,28% ke 129.500 won. Hyundai Motor menguat 3,4% dan Kia Motors naik 2,96%.

Dalam chart 4-jam, Kospi terlihat keluar dari momentum bearish, setelah menembus pola congestion 184.05-172.50, didukung oleh indikator ADX tending up, stochastic & MACD bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung perkiraan kenaikan indeks lebih lanjut. Resistance berada di 188.05 (123.6 FR), support di 182.90 (10-MA)/180.51 (20-MA). Rekomendasi :Sell 185.70 & 188 target 181.50 stop 100p, sell break 181.30 target 178.50 stop 100p. buy 181.60 target 185.00. Sell break 177.50 target 175.60 stop 100p. Chart KSU9 Daily

Hang Seng Futures Kontrak Juli (HSIN9)
Indeks Hang Seng melemah 0,65% karena kurangnya katalis baru mengenai ekonomi membuat investor melakukan aksi ambil untung dan volume perdagangan rendah. Sementara itu, kurangnya berita positif mengenai ekonomi global membuat investor bersikap wait-and-see. Indeks Hang Seng ditutup melemah 117,14 poin, atau 0,65%, menguat 17.862,27. Sedangkan indeks H-Shares jatuh 1,4%, atau 152,95 poin, ke 10,674,67. Dalam chart 4 jam, indeks menunjukkan signal bearish terutama jika menembus trendline support di 17649, dapat mengarahkan indeks terkoreksi lebih lanjut. Indikator stochastic dan MACD bearish, ADX terkoreksi turun, seharusnya mendukung perkiraan momentum penurunan terbatas. Resistance di 18160/18400. Support di 17649. Menurut hitungan Elliot wave indeks tealh menyelesaikan wave c / (ii) dalam subwave motive (3) telah berakhir di di 19,100 dalam cycle B. Rekomendasi : Buy 17650 & buy 17350 target 18150 (or closing) stop 100 p. Buy break 18050 target 18230 stop 100 poin. buy break 18250 target 184500 stop 100p. sell 18500 target 18300 stop 100p,

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Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Weekly inventory data from both industry-sponsored American Petroleum Institute (API) and US Energy Department (EIA) have consistently disappointed the market on product inventory builds. Gasoline stockpiles have risen for 3 consecutive weeks by a total of 9.59 mmb, according to EIA. For distillate, the increase in inventory has been as worrisome as usual. Although crude stockpile has plunged for 4 straight months, reduction in refining margins is expected to curb crude demand and may cause inventory to build up again later.













Written by Oil N' Gold
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil turns sideway after falling to 63.40 but still, intraday bias remains on the downside with 65.42 minor resistance intact. Further fall is expected to 38.2% retracement of 43.83 to 73.38 at 62.09 next. Break will then target key resistance turned support at 54.66. On the upside, above 65.42 will indicate that an intraday low is in place and bring recovery, probably to retest double top neckline at 66.25 or above. But upside should be limited well below 73.38 and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, the case of reversal continues to build up with daily MACD staying below signal line and last week's doubt top reversal pattern (73.23, 73.38). Focus will now turn to channel support at 58.80. Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise from 33.2 has completed at 73.83, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. The three wave structure of the rise from 33.2 to 73.83 will in turn indicate that it's part of wide range consolidation only and hence, will open up the bearish case for a retest of 33.2 low. On the upside, break of 73.83 is now needed to confirm that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Otherwise, risks remain on the downside.

Written by Oil N' Gold | Tue Jul 07 09 06:25 ET Comex Gold (GC) At this point, intraday bias in Gold remains mildly on the downside with 934.8 minor

Gold Prices Plunged And India Hike Gold Import Taxes

Written by Oil N' Gold
Comex Gold (GC)

At this point, intraday bias in Gold remains mildly on the downside with 934.8 minor resistance intact. Break of 913.2 support will confirm that whole fall from 992.1 has resumed for 865 low. On the upside, above 934.8 will turn intraday outlook neutral again and indicate that consolidation from 913.2 is still in progress. But even in case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited by 61.8% retracement of 992.1 to 913.2 at 962 to conclude the consolidation and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, favor is in the case that that fall from 992.1 is the third leg of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed yet. Break of 913.9 fibo support will target a test of 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.

Signal Konsolidasi Masih Memberikan Support Kepada Euro & Pound

Technical Analysis

EUR-USD
Euro masih berada dalam bearish uptrend channel di daily chart, diikuti pola candle hammer, indikator ADX menurun, stochastic flat crossover dam MACD masih berada di teritorial bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung perkiraan range trading dalam beberapa hari mendatang. Resistance berada di 1.4227 (upper channel), support berada di 1.3891 (lower channel). Euro berada di dalam wave zig zag 2 dalam wave intermediate 3 impulse, untuk target $ 1.4717, selama tidak mencapai dibawah 1.2878. Buy 1.3900 & buy break 1.4035 target 1.4125, sell 1.4120/1.4150. javascript:void(0)

USD-JPY
USDJPY masih berada dalam pola downtrend channel di daily chart, seharusnya masih membatasi potensi kenaikan lebih lanjut, yang dibatasi oleh upper channel di 97.60, diikuti indikator ADX rebound, stochastic crossing up, MACD masih berada dalam teritorial bearish, seharusnya mendukung peluan technical rebound ke target 97.60. resistance berada di 97.60, support di 94.01 (neckline). Buy 94.80 & buy break 95.70 target 97.00 stop dibawah 94.50. sell 97.00 target 96.00.

GBP-USD
GBP masih berada dalam pola congestion di daily chart, diikuti pola long legged doji star yang menunjukkan potensi bullish reversal dan indikator ADX rebound, stochastic terkoreksi dan MACD masih berada di teritorial bullish, seharusnya mendukung potensi technical rebound ke target 1.6430 (triple top di chart 4 jam), selama tidak menembus dibawah 1.6025 (76.4% FR). Buy 1.6180 & buy break 1.6335 target 1.6430. sell 1.6430.

AUD-USD
AUD terlihat berada dalam downtrend channel, diikuti pola candle three inside out yang menunjukkan potensi technical rebound, diikuti indikator ADX terkoreksi, stochastic mengarah turun, MACD masih bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi range trading 0.78-0.8150 dalam waktu dekat ini. Resistance di 0.8146, support di 0.7734. buy 0.7915 & buy break 0.8015 target 0.8140, sell 0.8100/0.8140.

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Elliot Wave: Oil, Pullback To $66

Written by TheLFB Trade Team, © 2007-2008 LFB Services, LLC. All rights reserved.
4 Hour Chart trend: Short. Main price points: 66.28, and 66.86. Looking for: Near-term bearish count

The market has broken through the 66.28 support area which was the key for a move into the current 64.00 area. In this zone we are looking for wave iii lows, as the market reached a typical 161.8% extension area of a red wave i, measured from wave ii high. Traders with a short bias should wait on a wave iv pull-back, with a possible turning point around the 66.28 resistance.

Has A Top Formed In Crude Oil? Here’s A Monthly And Weekly View

By Corey Rosenbloom on July 6, 2009

The following charts are taken from my new weekly “Intermarket Technical Report,” which goes into greater detail in discussing the current and potential future price structure for crude oil. For now, let’s take a look at the Monthly and Weekly timeframe charts to see EMA and Fibonacci confluence resistance overhead.

Crude Oil Monthly Structure
Taking a quick look, we see a dominant Elliott Wave count, which places us either at the final stages of Corrective Wave B up, or the beginning stages possibly of Wave C down which could eventually target the $35 lows over the next few months, particularly if the S&P 500 falls to test its lows. I wanted to highlight the confluence levels (click for larger chart) about the $70 to $75 level.
First, we see the 50 week EMA at $70.14 and the 20 week EMA at $72.11. With the scale so large, this $2.00 zone would be considered an EMA confluence zone to watch - we’ll split the difference and call $71.00 as significant resistance.Just above that is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the closing high to the recent 2009 lows. This retracement price comes in at $75.50.

Let’s see what the weekly structure shows.
Crude Oil Weekly Structure
We now see the 200 week SMA residing at $74.80, which is serving as well as resistance.Price is currently supporting on the 50 week EMA at $66.88, so watch closely if this level is broken - a break of $68.00 would almost certainly set up a test of the rising 20 week EMA at $61.00.Any bearish view would be negated with a close above $75 and especially $80, but for now, there appears to be more confluence overhead resistance than support, so let’s watch the downside risk for now.

For more analysis of Crude Oil (this is just a sample) as well as a multi-timeframe view (Monthly, Weekly, and Daily charts) of the 10-Year Notes, S&P 500, Gold, Crude Oil, and US Dollar Index, please check out my new subscription weekly service “Weekly Intermarket Technical Analysis” (full information and two samples are provided with the link).I’ve been doing this analysis privately and for mentorship clients, and I’ve made it more formal/informative and am proud to offer it as a new and unique analysis of multi-timeframe structures for key levels to watch and opportunities to trade both for short-term and position traders of key markets.

Daily Technical Analysis Forex/DJIA/Gold

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank
EURUSD

Comment: A small 'hammer' candle yesterday ahead of a rising and increasingly large Ichimoku 'cloud' demonstrate the underlying bullish tone. Until we get a weekly close above 1.4200 we shall have to allow for yet more random consolidation within the recent range. Strategy: Attempt longs at 1.3955; stop below 1.3800. Short term target 1.4100, then 1.4200.Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.3950 " 1.4
1.3927 1.4045
1.3876 1.41
1.3825 1.4178/1.4202*
1.3800* 1.423
GBPUSD
Comment: Yesterday's 'hammer' candle whose low was at the middle of the recent trading range underlines the long term bullish trend to this currency pair. Moving averages are still bullish, supported by an increasingly large, upward-sloping Ichimoku 'cloud'. A weekly close clearly above 1.6500 should add to current strong bullish momentum, hopefully with a whole host of currencies pulling in the same direction. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6225; stop below 1.6075. First target 1.6500, then 1.6600. Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.6216 " 1.63
1.6187 1.635
1.6125 1.6435
1.6095* 1.66
1.5985 1.6745*
USDJPY
Comment: Pity it didn't close below 95.00 yesterday as this would have seen bearish pressure increase. Expect more consolidation neatly below the lower edge of the Ichimoku 'cloud' and the moving averages today, above trendline support. Hopefully some time this week we will see a re-test of the increasingly important 94.00 area.
Strategy: Attempt shorts at 95.35, adding to 96.00; stop well above 96.25. First target 94.66/94.44, then lower still. Direction of Trade: →Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
95.11 " 95.46
95 95.8
94.88 96.25*
94.66 96.6
94.44 94.00 97.25*
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by India Forex | Jul 07 09 06:20 GMT |
Rupee: Rupee stayed weak as expected post budget and crossed our target of 48.35. We maintain bearishness and a break of 48.53 again would push rupee weaker. Bearish.(USD/INR : 48.38)
Gold: Gold was unable to hold above $930 . Still holding bearishness targeting $900 (Gold- $924.18). Rangebound to Bearish.
Dollar Index: Dollar index extends the rebound from 79.56 and is set to take on 80.94. We're anticipating a break of 80.94 resistance to signal resumption of rise from 78.33, to be confirmed by break of 81.36/47 resistance zone. Further rally should be seen to next key resistance at 82.62 (38.2% retracement of 89.62 to 78.93 at 82.64). in such case. (DI- 80.70) Bullish
Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FXtechtrade
DOW JONES INDEX

Today's support: - 8280.23 and 8247.22(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break of the latter will give 8224.00, where correction also can be. Then follows 8185.78. Be there a strong impulse, we would see 8148.62. Continuation will bring 8118.50 and 8100.00. Today's resistance: - 8376.18, 8417.22 and 8462.80(main), where a delay and correction may happen. Break would bring 8503.10, where a correction may happen. Then follows 8538.70, where a delay and correction could also be. Be there a strong impulse, we'd see 8551.50. Continuation would bring 8562.26.

Monday, July 6, 2009

Pola Konsolidasi Dukung Potensi Penurunan IHSG Terbatas

IHSG Outlook
Ind P/E (x)
EPS
Y/Y Y/Y Suku Bunga* Inflasi*
Y/Y GDP*
Y/Y
IHSG 26.65 8% -11.5% 6.75% 3.65% 4.4%
STI 19.8 16% -22.4% 0.69% -0.70% -10.1%
KLCI 13.8 10% -10.6% 2.0% 3.00% -6.2%
SET 12.7 4% -23.2% 1.25% -3.30% -7.10%
SSE 35.8 36% +0.9% 5.31% -1.40% 6.10%
N225 45.0 -1% -28.4% 0.10% -0.10% -9.7%
HSI 21.5 19% -17.7% 0.50% 0.60% -7.80%
DJIA 25.0 3% -26.3% 0.25% -1.3% -2.5%

IHSG masih dapat terkoreksi hari ini kendati terbatas, karena munculnya sejumlah sentimen dari akhir pekan dari dalam maupun luar negeri. Perkiraan berlanjutnya aksi profit-taking menjelang Pilpres 8 Juli telah memperlihatkan keunggulan capres & cawapres SBY - Boediono di berbagai survei dan poling Bloomberg, di tengah kisruh seputar Daftar Pemilih Tetap (DPT) dikhawatirkan membuat pemilu tertunda dan investor yang melakukan aksi “wait & see” menunggu hasil Pilpres. Sementara laporan kenaikan Non Performing Loan (NPL) bank lokal di bulan Mei, ikut menekan saham perbankan. Diikuti penurunan harga komoditi global (harga minyak akan tes support $ 62.10/barel), memperburuk pandangan saham komoditi pertambangan, logam dan perkebunan. Meski potensi penurunan IHSG terbatas karena mendapatkan support dari pengaruh penurunan suku bunga BI pekan lalu, pembagian dividen TLKM (Ex date) dan penguatan rupiah terhadap dolar (penutupan di Rp 10,195). Trend IHSG yang masih bullish jangka pendek masih mendorong perkiraan konsolidasi dalam range trading 2,020-2,085 di awal pekan ini. Sementara kekhawatiran mengenai kondisi sektor tenaga kerja di Eropa dan AS, masih membebani kinerja indeks regional yang dapat memberikan imbas negatif kepada IHSG.

Stock Picks : Potential yield 10%-20%, risk <10%
Buy (< -5%: 06/07): BUMI/BNBR/ELTY, BMTR/MNCN, SMMA, BLTA, CTRA, INCO, INDF, SMGR, BBCA, BMRI, TLKM, ISAT, PTBA, TRUB.

Stock Picks:
* BLTA hold target Rp 1,100
* SMCB buy target Rp 1,600

Global Outlook
Tekanan bearish untuk indeks saham regional Asia dan AS hari ini diperkirakan mereda setelah data ISM Services AS tercatat diatas perkiraan pasar sebesar 47, meningkat dari 44 di bulan Mei. Penguatan dolar terhadap mata uang Eropa dan Asia Pasifik (kecuali yen) dan Treasury AS sedikit mereda, sehingga dapat memberikan support kepada pasar saham regional Asia dan Eropa yang akan dapat mengangkat harga komoditi hari ini dari level terendah 5-pekan di $ 63.40/barel kemarin. Kemarin indeks saham global terpukul sentimen negatif dari laporan kerugian bank Jerman dan pernyataan VP AS Joe Biden mengenai salah prediksi pemerintah Obama mengenai laju kenaikan pengangguran di AS. Minimnya data ekonomi dari AS hari ini, mendorong perkiraan indeks global dalam range trading sempit menjelang pertemuan negara G8 hari Kamis-Jumat, dapat menekankan kembali isu pemulihan ekonomi global.

Technical Analysis:
Laju kenaikan IHSG terhambat oleh adanya technical rejection di resistance line 2,078 dan middle channel di 2,077, seharusnya masih mendukung perkiraan range trading pada hari ini, karena potensi penurunanpun terbatas karena masih ditutup diatas support channel di 2,029, seharusnya masih mendorong perkiraan laju kenaikan lebih lanjut selama tidak menembus support kuat di double bottom daily 2,020. indikator ADX menunjukkan penurunan, stochastic bullish, MACD weak bullish, seharusnya masih mendukung potensi konsolidasi sebelum Pilpres besok. Hitungan Elliot Wave: IHSG kemungkinan menunjukkan wave b akan berakhir di high 2,085 selama tidak melewati 2,116 (high 10/06) dalam proses target wave 4 di support 1950/1910 (50.0 FR 2116-1708) dalam 4 intermediate (4) / cycle (B). Break 2,116 target 2,158/2,165.
Resistance: 2120.98/2095.53/2080.40/2054.95. PP 2044.62
Suport : 2014.36/2004.04/1993.72/1968.26
(Perkiraan Range hari Ini 2,020 - 2,060)


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Asian Stocks ‘Minor Wave’ Rebound to End: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- A rebound in Asian stocks outside Japan may come to an end as the region’s benchmark index approaches its resistance level, CIMB-GK Research Pte said.
The so-called minor wave uptrend in the MSCI Asia excluding Japan Index may falter at 398, 2.2 percent higher than yesterday’s close, CIMB-GK analysts Nigel Foo and Kong Seh Siang wrote in a report today. The index will probably enter a “correction” before posting a rebound, thereby completing its bear market rally, the analysts wrote. MSCI’s Asian ex-Japan index has surged as much as 65 percent from its low this year amid speculation that the worst of the global recession has passed. It fell 0.4 percent to 387.88 at 10:52 a.m. in Singapore today, still 44 percent less than its October 2007 peak.“The MSCI Asia excluding Japan Index remains in a major wave rebound since the March bottom,” the analysts said. “We see no reason to turn positive on the index unless it is able to rally above its resistance trend line of 398 points.”If the gauge rises higher than 398, its next resistance trend line will be at 415, CIMB-GK said. That would be the highest since September, before the collapse of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. prompted a global sell-off.

In the U.S., the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index also faces “stubborn resistance” at 930, which marks the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the index’s decline from its June high to its June low, the analysts wrote. The S&P 500 yesterday retreated 2.9 percent to 896.42 after reaching 931 on July 1.“If we are right, this should complete the minor wave rebound to be followed by one more minor wave down-leg to finish the correction since mid-June,” according to the report. The index may fall to as low as 820, it added.Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. A break above resistance or below support indicates a currency may move to the next level.

Asian Stocks to Drop in Autumn Before Gain

Asian stocks are set to drop over the next few months, setting the stage for a rally toward the end of the year, based on past trading patterns, Citigroup Inc. said. South Korea’s Kospi index may have reached a “near-term ceiling” of around 1,435 and may fall as much as 310 points through autumn, Citigroup analyst Yutaka Yoshino said. The Taiex index in Taiwan may decline as much as 1,890 when it peaks at around 7,080, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index may reach a high of 20,210 before falling as much as 4,270, and then rising again, the analyst added.Asian stocks have rallied this year on optimism that the worst of the global recession has passed. The MSCI Asia excluding Japan Index is up 60 percent from its March 2 low, rebounding from its record 54 percent drop in 2008.

“With pullbacks likely for U.S. and Japanese equities, we could see substantial turbulence from July,” Yoshino wrote in a July 3 report. “That said, if the markets shore up their lows through autumn, we believe they could head for further upside through 2010.”The Kospi rose 0.3 percent to 1,424.58 at 12:29 a.m. in Seoul trading. The Taiex slipped 0.6 percent to 6,625.85, while the Hang Seng declined 1.6 percent to 17,908.09.Following the decline, the South Korean benchmark stock measure could rally to as high as 1,620, Yoshino said. That forecast, a 14 percent gain from today’s level, was derived by adding the magnitude of a previous rebound between March and October 2007 to the index’s lowest point this year, he added.The Taiex could also rise to 8,260 next year after a “phase of bottom building,” while the Hang Seng could climb to 22,260, the analyst wrote. That represents gains of about 25 percent each from today’s prices.

Euro to Fall to Six-Week Low Versus Dollar: Technical Analysis

(Bloomberg) -- The euro will probably fall to a six- week low versus the dollar after failing to exceed resistance levels last week, Citigroup Inc. technical analysts wrote. The 16-nation currency halted its advance on July 1 at $1.4201, stopping at the 76.4 percent Fibonacci retracement of its decline from the six-month high of $1.4338 set on June 3, a Citigroup chart shows. The euro depreciated for three straight days after failing to break above the resistance level, which also coincided with the currency’s downward trend since reaching its record high on July 15, 2008, according to the chart.“This is a bearish setup in the short term,” Citigroup technical analysts Tom Fitzpatrick in New York and Shyam Devani in London wrote today in a note to clients.

The euro will probably fall to $1.3748 to a support level near the 55-day moving average, and a break even lower may lead to declines toward the 200-day moving average around $1.33, the strategists wrote.The euro fell 0.4 percent to $1.3926 as of 11:17 a.m. in New York, the longest stretch of declines since the five-day losing streak ended on April 20. Europe’s shared currency has depreciated 13 percent against the greenback since reaching its record high of $1.6038 last July.In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast price changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.
Fibonacci analysis is based on the theory that prices rise or fall by certain percentages after reaching a high or low. Resistance is an area where sell orders may be clustered, and support is an area where there may be buy orders. A break above resistance or below support indicates a currency may move to the next level.

Crude Oil Daily Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold | Mon Jul 06 09 08:15 ET
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)

Crude oil's decline continues today, reaches as low as 63.40 so far and is set to test 55 days EMA at 63.35. At this point, intraday bias remains on the downside as long as 65.90 minor resistance holds. Further fall should be seen to 38.2% retracement of 43.83 to 73.38 at 62.09 next. Break will then target key resistance turned support at 54.66. On the upside, above 65.90 will turn intraday outlook neutral and bring consolidation. But recovery should be limited well below 73.38 and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, the case of reversal continues to build up with daily MACD staying below signal line and last week's doubt top reversal pattern (73.23, 73.38). Focus will now turn to channel support at 58.80. Sustained break there will indicate that whole rise from 33.2 has completed at 73.83, ahead of 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77. The three wave structure of the rise from 33.2 to 73.83 will in turn indicate that it's part of wide range consolidation only and hence, will open up the bearish case for a retest of 33.2 low. On the upside, break of 73.83 is now needed to confirm that rise from 33.2 is still in progress. Otherwise, risks remain on the downside.

Gold Daily Technical Outlook

Written by Oil N' Gold | Mon Jul 06 09 08:16 ET
Comex Gold (GC)

Gold weakens mildly today but after all it's still in range of 913.2/938.1. Nevertheless, intraday bias is mildly on the downside for 913.2 low first. Break there will confirm that whole fall from 992.1 has resumed for 865 low. On the upside, above 934.8 will turn intraday outlook neutral again and indicate that consolidation from 913.2 is still in progress. But even in case of another rise, upside is expected to be limited by 61.8% retracement of 992.1 to 913.2 at 962 to conclude the consolidation and bring fall resumption.

In the bigger picture, favor is in the case that that fall from 992.1 is the third leg of the consolidation from 1007.7, which is not completed yet. Break of 913.9 fibo support will target a test of 865 support before completing the whole consolidation. Nevertheless, downside is expected to be contained by 801.5 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 681 to 1007.7 at 805.7 ) and bring resumption of rise from 681. On the upside, though, above 992.1 will revive the case that rise from 865 is resumption of up trend rather than part of sideway consolidation. In such case, retest of 1007.7/1033.9 resistance should be seen next.

Wall St Week Ahead: Earnings to set tone for stocks

(Reuters) - With Wall Street stuck in a range since May, the start of second-quarter earnings season next week could prove to be a decisive factor for determining how much faith investors should have in an economic recovery. After a rally of as much as 40 percent for the S&P 500 on expectations the economy will begin to turn around by year end, analysts will hone in on companies' projections to see if their hopes are corroborated. The light menu of economic data will help keep the spotlight on earnings releases, with bellwethers Alcoa and Chevron posting their quarterly scorecards.

Of even more importance will be any outlook companies give for what they expect to see for the rest of the year. A large U.S. Treasury auction could buoy the market if it shows there is good demand for government debt. Concern that the appetite for debt is waning as the government tries to fund its stimulus efforts was soothed by solid demand in last week's record $104 billion auction of Treasury securities. "I think we are range bound and we're going to stay there for a while," said Paul Nolte, director of investments at Hinsdale Associates, in Hinsdale, Illinois. "What will probably break it is going to be the earnings season because the expectation is for at least some rebound in earnings, especially from the banking sector." At Thursday's close, stocks were down for the week: The Dow Jones industrial average declined 1.9 percent, while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index lost 2.5 percent and the Nasdaq fell 2.3 percent. U.S. financial markets were closed on Friday for the long U.S.

Independence Day holiday weekend because July 4th falls on a Saturday this year.

Trading will resume on Monday. WHEN 'LESS UGLY' LOOKS GOOD Investors will be looking for companies to release results that are "less bad" in the same way that recent economic data has spurred optimism that the worst is over. Analysts say that companies should be able to beat the relatively low bar that has been set by expectations, which could help the market add some gains. Earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to decline by 35.5 percent in the second quarter, according to Thomson Reuters data. While all 10 sectors are anticipated to fall, healthcare should fare the best, slipping just 2 percent. On the opposite side, the materials and energy sectors are forecast to do the worst, falling 78.9 percent and 64.7 percent, respectively. "On the earnings front, it's going to be ugly reading, but it's just going to be less bad, just like the economic data," said Scott Marcouiller, senior equity market strategist at Wells Fargo Advisors in St. Louis.

WANTED: HEALTHY OUTLOOKS But the real spotlight will be on what companies foresee for the rest of the year. Forecasts of profitability and improving consumer demand would increase optimism that the U.S. economy is finding its footing. Analysts said companies will have to signal the economy is actually improving and investors will not be impressed if they're just cutting costs and slashing jobs, as has been the case in recent quarters. Nolte said the S&P 500 has been stuck between 880 and 950. After surging from a 12-year closing low on March 9, the S&P 500's rally has stalled over the last couple of months. For June, the benchmark index was little changed. Nonetheless, the S&P 500 has support at the bottom of that range and any dip toward that level will be a key test, analysts said. Holding above that range will be a positive sign for the market.

Since March, pullbacks have been relatively shallow and short-lived as investors who missed the rally the first time see the dips as buying opportunities. "There's been plenty of reasons to have the legs kicked out from under us, but it hasn't happened," Marcouiller said. "It tells you the money is quick to be there." On the data front, reports are expected on the service sector in June from the Institute for Supply Management on Monday, as well as the international trade deficit for May and the preliminary July reading on consumer sentiment from Reuters/University of Michigan surveys -- both on Friday. Weekly initial jobless claims data will get more attention than usual after Thursday's non-farm payrolls fell much more than expected. "If initial claims continue to rise, it will probably begin to cast some doubt about the strength of the recovery," said John Praveen, chief investment strategist at Prudential International Investments Advisers LLC in Newark, New Jersey.

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