Sunday, May 23, 2010

Update Daily Investment News

Goods Orders, Home Sales Probably Climbed: U.S. Economy Preview
(Bloomberg) -- Orders for factory goods, sales of new and existing homes and consumer spending probably climbed in April, indicating the U.S. recovery was strengthening before the European debt crisis rattled global financial markets, economists said reports this week may show.

Week Ahead: Outlook for Stocks Volatile, with Headwinds
Choppy, with political headwinds and chillier credit conditions, is the forecast for stocks in the week ahead.

Buy on Friday, Sell on Monday — Then Go Away?
Germany's Bundestag (Germany's lower house) and Bundesrat (upper house) approved the $1 trillion effort to stabilize the euro, though the opposition Social Democrats voted to abstain. The German contribution will be about $183 billion, as well as a $22.4 billion euro contribution to Greece. is expected to approve it later today.

Stocks to Tumble Another 20%, Cash the Safest Place: Roubini
Stocks are likely to continue their aggressive decline and shed another 20 percent in value as the world economy weakens, noted economist Nouriel Roubini told CNBC.

Commodities Have Peaked, Commerzbank Says: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Commodities probably have peaked and have limited scope to rebound, according to technical analysis by Commerzbank AG.

Euro Gains Most Since September as Traders Exit Bets on Decline
(Bloomberg) -- The euro rose the most in eight months against the dollar amid speculation traders who have bet on its decline during Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis had to buy back the currency as it strengthened to a one-week high.

CFTC Set to Limit Oil Speculation With Senate Backing (Update1)
 (Bloomberg) -- The top U.S. commodity regulator is poised to impose new rules on oil speculators as Congress and the European Commission attempt to rein in trading in the $615 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market.

MSCI Asia Ex-Japan Index May Fall 15-20% From Current Level: RBS
(Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks may fall a further 15 percent to 20 percent from current levels, according to Emil Wolter, head of Asian regional strategy at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc in Hong Kong.

Stock Funds See Biggest Exit in Two Years, EPFR Says (Update3)
(Bloomberg) -- Investors withdrew some $12 billion from U.S. and European equity funds in the week to May 19, the most in almost two years, on concern Europe’s sovereign-debt crisis will slow global growth, EPFR Global said in an e-mail.

Futures Bets for Euro Decline Against Dollar Drop From Record
(Bloomberg) -- Futures traders pared bets against the euro versus the dollar from a record as widening price swings prompted a reduction of euro-funded investments in higher-yielding countries such as Australia.

Halftime: Is Market Way Oversold?
Once again, technicals appear to be driving this rough and tumble market with the S&P .SPX falling below the level reached during the "flash crash" earlier in the session but then bouncing back and muscling its way into positive territory.

Stocks to Come Back With a Vengeance: Strategist
Markets are significantly undervalued in terms of corporate earnings, and stocks are set to bounce back with a vengeance, Christian Blaabjerg, Strategist at Saxo Bank, told CNBC Friday.

Oil & Gold Next Week: Video

Markets Will 'Double This Decline' Into Year-End
Stocks erased early losses on Friday, defying market expectations for another big selloff, but struggled to hold gains. What should investors expect from the markets going forward? Paul Schatz, president at Heritage Capital, and Dirk Van Dijk, director of research at Zacks Investment Research, discussed their opposing views.

Odds Favor Correction Over New Bear
Based on 24 declines greater than 10 percent occurring during existing bull markets since 1962, the odds that this latest correction is actually the start of a new bear market are about 38 percent, according to Birinyi Associates. And if it is just a correction, then this is a great buying opportunity, history shows.

How Low Can the Market Go? Pros Say Slide Hasn't Stopped
With technical barriers continuing to give way and the May 6 "flash-crash" fluke looking like not so much of a fluke anymore, market watchers were left Thursday wondering how much worse things could get.

An Undeniably Bullish Signal From The Street
While we don’t have a crystal ball, we have detected an undeniably bullish signal from The Street.

Should Investors Buy on Gold's Dip?
With gold closing successively lower and well below $1,200 [GCV1  1193.5    -11.40  (-0.95%)   ] an ounce on the Comex for the third straight session, investors are starting to take a hard look at this so-called “

Bullish Beginnings Or Dead Cat Bounce
Stocks snapped a three-day losing streak on Friday with the Dow
DJIA making triple digits gains. However it was the action in the S&P that triggered the most chatter.

Weekly Fundamental Outlook for Energies and Metals - Oil Weakens when Demand Starts to Pick Up      
ONG Focus - Insights Written by Oil N' Gold
The week started calmly until Germany's Bafin announced Tuesday to temporarily (until March 31, 2011) ban naked short sales of debt securities of Eurozone countries admitted on a domestic exchange to trading on the regulated market. It also temporarily prohibited CDS in which the reference liability is at least also a liability of a euro zone country and is not used to hedge default risks (naked CDS). In addition, Bafin banned short sales on 10 largest German financial institutions (including banks and insurance companies.

Gold Weekly Technical Outlook      
ONG Focus - Technical Written by Oil N' Gold
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's fall from 1249.7 extends further to as low as 1166 last week but lost downside moment as it hit 1170.7 cluster support (61.8% retracement of 1124.3 to 1249.7 at 1172.2). Initial bias is neutral this week and some sideway trading should be seen around 1170.7 first. On the upside, break of 1206.6 minor resistance will suggest that pull back from 1249.7 has completed and flip intraday bias back to the upside for retesting this high. However, note that firm break of 1170.7 will argue that whole rise from 1044.5 is completed and will turn outlook bearish for 1124.3 support next.In the bigger picture, while the fall from 1249.7 is deep, gold is still holding on to 1170.7 cluster support as well as 55 days EMA (now at 1163). Hence there is no change in the bullish view yet and the long term up trend is still in favor to continue after completing the current pull back. Break of 1249.7 will target 100% projection of 931.3 to 1227.5 from 1044.5 at 1340 next. However, note that sustained trading below 55 EMA will opens up a few bearish possibilities. The least bearish case is that fall from 1249.7 is the third leg of the three wave consolidation from 1227.5 and would target a retest on 1044.5 support next. In the long term picture, rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up trend from 1999 low of 253 after interim consolidation from 1033.9 has completed in form of an expanding triangle. Next long term target is 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level. We'll hold on to the bullish view as long as 1044.5 key support holds.

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude oil dived to as low as 64.24 last week but formed a short term bottom there and turned sideway. Further consolidations would be seen initially this week and stronger recovery might be seen to 38.2% retracement of 87.15 to 64.24 at 72.99. However, upside should be limited by 61.8% retracement at 78.39 and bring fall resumption. Below 64.24 will target 60 psychological level next, which is close to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18. In the bigger picture, the break of 68.59/69.50 support zone affirms our view that whole medium term rebound from 33.2 has completed at 87.15 already, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. Further decline should be seen to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least. Also, as rebound from 33.2 is viewed as as a correction to the whole correction that started at 2008 at 147.27, we'd anticipate a break of 33.2 low in the longer term. On the upside, break of resistance at 78 level is needed to be indicate that fall from 87.15 is completed. Otherwise, we'll stay bearish. In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall fro 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.

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