Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
With 4 hours MACD crossed below signal line, an intraday top should be in place at 68.99 and some consolidation would now be seen. But after all, downside is expected to be contained above 63.23 support and bring rally resumption. Above 68.99 will target a retest of 73.38 high but initial resistance will likely be seen there. However, break of 63.23 will argue that rise from 58.32 has completed and will mix up the short term outlook.
In the bigger picture, the stronger then expected rebound from 58.32 and break of 66.25 resistance dampened the bearish view that whole rise from 33.2 has completed at 73.38. Also, considering that crude oil is still trading inside medium term rising channel despite earlier brief break, rise from 33.2 is possibly still in progress. Break of 73.83 high will confirm this case and should target 38.2% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 76.77 next. On the downside, break of 58.32 low is now needed to revive the case that crude oil has topped out.
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