Sunday, July 18, 2010

Fundamental: Good Earnings vs Bad Economics

Week Ahead: Stocks In Tug of War Between Good Earnings, Bad Economic Reports
The stock market is fixating on crumbling confidence in the U.S. economic recovery and may continue to ignore the good news that's likely to show up in corporate earnings reports in the coming week.

U.S. Stocks to Rise This Month Before Drop: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and Dow Jones Industrial Average will advance this month before declining again in August, according to an analysis of chart patterns by DMG & Partners Securities Pte.

US Stock Earnings Calendar For The Week 19 July - 23 July

Art Cashin: If S&P 'Stalls' Now, Bears May Seize Market
The S&P 500 has closed between 1095 and 1098 for three straight days, which means the market may be at a fulcrum point between bearish and bullosh, Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS Financial Services, told CNBC Friday morning.

Halftime: Friday's Sell-Off Might Not Be What You Think!
We’ve gotten a resolution to the Goldman SEC case, clarity on finreg and the catastrophe in the Gulf appears to have turned a corner.

Political Uncertainty Is Restraining Markets: JPMorgan Funds Strategist
How should investors play the ups and downs in this volatile market? David Kelly, chief market strategist at JPMorgan Funds shared his insights.

Cramer's Plan for Next Week's Earnings
"Do not trade ahead of the quarters. Listen to the quarters."

Track the Gulf Spill
An explosion on the Deepwater Horizon oil rig on April 20, ruptured a well head in the Gulf of Mexico, setting in motion one of the worst environmental disasters in U.S. history.

Warren Buffett Tells Obama Still 'Long Way to Go' After 'Wrenching Recession'
Warren Buffett discusses the economy with President Barack Obama during an Oval Office meeting on July 14, 2010.

Forget Surveys, Better Barometer Of Sentiment Comes Next Week
After an 8% rise in only two weeks, the bulls couldn't drive the market any higher on Friday.

US Macro Situation Still Rules Market
No bids, no bounce in stocks today: US macro situation still trumps all. The surprisingly weak July Preliminary Michigan Sentiment was the third metric that was much weaker than expected this week. Retail sales were also disappointing earlier in the week.

Bank Results Beat Forecasts But Outlook Remains Murky

US Net Long-Term Capital Inflow Slips in May

Copper to Advance 15% on Closing at $6,792: Technical Analysis
(Bloomberg) -- Copper, down 9.4 percent this year, may advance 15 percent if it closes at $6,792 a metric ton within the next two weeks, according to Barclays Capital Plc.

Hedge Funds to Increase Use of Trading Algorithms, Tabb Says
(Bloomberg) -- Asset managers such as hedge funds will probably increase their use of computer programs known as algorithms to execute their stock trades in 2011, according to securities-industry research firm Tabb Group LLC.

Seery Sees S&P 500 Falling to 900s; Cites `No Growth': Video

Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook  ONG Focus - Technical
Written by Oil N' Gold.
Crude Oil Weekly Technical Outlook
Crude oil edged higher to 78.15 last week but failed to sustain gain there. With 4 hours MACD staying below signal line, initial bias is neutral this week. While another rise cannot be ruled out with 74.23 minor support intact. We'd continue to expect upside to be limited by 79.38 resistance and bring fall resumption. On the downside, below 74.23 will flip intraday bias back to the downside. Further break of 71.09 will confirm that fall from 79.38 has resumed. Also this will affirm our view that choppy recovery from 64.23 has completed at 79.38 already and should target 64.23 support next.
In the bigger picture, recovery from 64.23 is treated as a correction to fall from 87.15 and has possibly completed at 79.38 already. Break of 71.09 support will indicate that decline from 87.15 is likely resuming. This will also revive the bearish case that whole medium term rise from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, just ahead of 50% retracement of 147.27 to 33.2 at 90.24. In such case, we'd see another fall to 50% retracement of 33.2 to 87.15 at 60.18 at least.
In the long term picture, current development suggests that rebound from 33.2 is finished at 87.15, inside 76.77/90.24 fibo resistance zone as expected. Our view is that fall fro 87.15 would develop into the third falling leg of the whole correction from 147.27 and hence, we'd anticipate an eventual break of 33.2 low in the long term as such correction extends.
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold's sharp fall on Friday suggests that recovery from 1185 is finished at 1218.8 already. Initial bias is cautiously on the downside this week. Break of 1185 will confirm that whole decline from 1266.5 has resumed and should target 61.8% projection of 1266.5 to 1185 from 1218.8 at 1168.4 next, which is close to 1166 key support. On the upside, above 1218.8 will turn bias neutral and bring more consolidations. But after all, we'd maintain that risk remains heavily on the downside as long as 1266.5 resistance holds.
In the bigger picture, gold's rally from 1044.5 should have completed at 1266.5. More importantly, whole medium term rise from 681 might have finished with five waves up too, on bearish divergence condition in daily MACD. Sustained trading below 55 days EMA (now at 1205.8) will affirm this case and bring deep correction to 1044.5 cluster support (38.2% retracement of 681 to 1266.5 at 1042.8) at least.
In the long term picture, we're proposing that 1266.5 is an important medium term top in gold and we should see a sizable correction going forward. A breach of 1000 psychological level is possible. However, there is no indication of long term up trend reversal yet. We'd maintain the long term bullish view and expect whole up trend from 1999 low of 253 to continue to 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 level after completing the correction from 1266.5.

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