Sunday, February 13, 2011

EWI: Love of Luxury: When Have We Seen This Before?

Love of Luxury: When Have We Seen This Before?

US Housing Market: The Lost City Of Atlantis

Why Was Ronald Reagan, Born 100 Years Ago, So Popular?

EURUSD: Dollar Rallies, Euro Falls -- Blame Egypt?,-Euro-Falls----Blame-Egypt.aspx

USDCHF (Video): How to Identify Opportunities in Forex Using Elliott Wave Analysis

Egypt Protests: Will They Impact Local Stock Markets?

Gold Prices Have NOT Defied The Laws Of Gravity

Sugar Prices Sink: How Elliott Wave Patterns Foresaw The Turn Down

New Horizons: The 2011 Socionomics Summit

The "Urge to Splurge" - New Trend, or Echo of the Old Mania?

Europe on the Edge: Is a "Tipping Point" Near?

EWI, why won’t you simply turn bullish on stocks again?

At what point will EWI reassess its bearish scenario and admit that we are in a new bull market? It's admirable that EWI is sticking to its guns, but not being in the stock market over the past year has been painful (albeit "safe," if you're in cash). Seems like EWI is understating the power of the Fed to create endless credit.

Reagan vs. Obama: How do we tell a "bull market" politician from a "bear market" one?
Barack Obama sees himself as a "transformational", bull-market politician like Ronald Reagan; however, Ronald Reagan WAS a bull market politician, yet all of our Elliott wave analysis indicates that Obama is not; how do we tell the difference?

Responder: The Socionomics Institute       Date: 2/9/2011
Both Reagan's popularity and the Dow fell during his first 2 years in office. What's important is that Obama's popularity also fell for his first two years while the Dow rallied 60%. We've said before that president's popularity can serve as a leading social mood/stock market indicator. The divergence between Obama's falling popularity against rising stocks suggests that the larger social mood trend is downward. As to how to tell a "bull market" president from a "bear market" one -- we don't get that luxury. Social mood determines a president's bull-or-bear market fate. (Ed.: See the Jan. 27 Q&A "Obama: Will he be re-elected if the bear market resumes?" for more on that.)

Triangle: Can wave E go beyond wave C, or wave A?
From what I've seen, wave E of a triangle sometimes goes beyond the extreme of wave C. Can wave E goes beyond wave A? If yes, how often does that happen, and by how much (in Fibonacci terms) may it go beyond wave A?

Responder: Wayne Gorman       Date: 2/7/2011
In a contracting or barrier triangle, wave E can never go beyond the end of wave C and therefore can never go beyond the end of wave A.

Fibonacci measurement: Where do I start when wave 5 truncates?

In the event of a W5 failure (truncation), where should the Fibonacci retracement be measured from, W5 top or W3 top?

Responder: Wayne Gorman       Date: 2/7/2011
You could look at both and see which one may help to form a Fibonacci cluster. But my first preference would be to measure from the orthodox end of the wave, which would be from the end of wave 5.

George Soros' Reflexivity Theory: Similar to Prechter's socionomics?
Have you tried to reconcile Elliott wave analysis with George Soros' theory of Reflexivity? It holds that social sciences differ from natural sciences because cause and effect cannot be separated from its observers own perceptual bias. Hence, the way we perceive a 'cause' alters the way we perceive it's 'effect'. And since that 'effect' will become a 'cause' so on and so forth unto infinity, the market is subject to an interrelated perceptual bias which compounds over time. To me, these two theories seem like two sides of the same coin.

Responder: Multi-Author       Date: 2/2/2011
Bob Prechter's socionomic theory has many elements in common with Soros’ theory of history. Soros' key concept of the crucial role of “reflexivity” between thinking and reality is similar to socionomic theory’s concept of the reciprocal relationship between individual perceptions/choices and the social dynamics of society at the aggregate level. But “reflexivity” -- as we see it -- is between the individual and the aggregate levels, not between news headlines and social mood. We do not believe that social events, as reflected in the news headlines, reinforce social mood. If there were feedback loops between the two, trends would extend indefinitely -- but they don't. Here's how Bob Prechter puts it: "Studies have shown that even the most dramatic social actions and events have no effect on the tenor or character of social mood, thus challenging the idea of a 'feedback loop' between social mood and social action. I have concluded from these studies that social mood induces social action, period. The fact that manifestations of social mood fluctuate according to a patterned fractal called the Wave Principle is compatible with this conclusion." (Elliott Wave Theorist, April, September 2004; copy at Customer Service.) To see evolutionary, biological and psychological evidence for the existence of social mood phenomenon, read Bob Prechter's The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior. You may also enjoy the free online documentary on socionomics, "History's Hidden Engine."

Obama: Will he be re-elected if the bear market resumes?
I know it is an early question, but would Obama be reelected if your bear market forecast comes true?

Rising consumer confidence: Bullish sign for the stock market?
The latest U.S. consumer confidence number were quite high. Is that a reflection of improving social mood?

Social mood: Can it diverge from the DJIA, its best-known indicator?
Is there any way to measure the momentum of the social mood? I understand the obvious answer is to simply measure the momentum of the DJIA, but when there are large drops in the stock market, there is also likely to be huge rallies which are usually short term profit taking and therefore don't reflect the social mood? Can there be a short term divergence between the DJIA and the social mood?

Responder: Wayne Gorman       Date: 2/1/2011
All movements in the DJIA reflect social mood, but the direction and magnitude of social mood trends are not the same at all wave degrees or time frames. To measure social mood momentum, use the DJIA and apply your preferred momentum indicator and time frame.

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