Thursday, August 25, 2011

Charting The Upcoming Recession, And Is Goldman Really Predicting A 2012 Year End S&P Range Of 700 – 900?

In his weekly chart packet, Goldman’s high frequency strategist, David Kostin, who now changes his year end S&P targets almost as frequently as the firm’s economic team changes its GDP forecast, once again gets decidedly fatalistic (very much like Citigroup did yesterday, and Morgan Stanley last week), and is now openly contemplating downside cases to his EPS forecast. And with 2012 EPS numbers thrown around like $91 based on what is certainly an upcoming (but for now still hypothetical) margin contraction, $82 based on a 2% drop (almost guaranteed) in GDP Y/Y, and $75 based on historical earnings plunges in a recession, it may be time to listen up, because apply a traditional contractionary multiple of about 9-10x, and you have yourself a tidy little range of 700 – 910 on the S&P in about a year, absent yet another round of fiscal and/or monetary stimulus.

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Fed Economists – “We see a 15 year Bear Market for Stocks”
Bruce Krasting
The San Francisco Fed has come out with a research paper connecting the dots between the retiring baby boomers and stock prices. The thinking is that the boomers will divest themselves of stocks as they retire and eat into their savings. This is an old argument, but I still found it interesting. The authors, Zheng Liu and Mark M. Spiegel have attempted to quantify the implications. Their principal conclusions:

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Nouriel Roubini
Double Dip is ahead for US & Europe: Philly Fed plunges after NY survey; Home Sales are collapsing; EU bank shares plunging & sov spreads up

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